Brazil: Restoring orange juice demand is the main challenge for the 2026/27 season

The main challenge for the orange juice market is no longer supply, but demand. Even with the prospect of a smaller orange crop in Brazil in 2026/27, the pace of juice exports remains limited, especially to Europe, signaling a slow recovery in global consumption.

From July 2025 to May 2026, Brazil exported 749.1 thousand tons of orange juice (in volume equivalent of frozen concentrated orange juice – 66º Brix), 2.8 % more than in the previous season, according to ComexStat data. Export revenues, in turn, totaled USD 2.39 billion, down 27.6 % in the same period. The decline reflects the sharp drop in international prices throughout the season, with the average FOB export price decreasing by 29.5 %.

The share of the United States in total revenue from 2025/26 sales increased from 39 % to 44 %, while the European Union’s share declined from 51 % to 47 %. This scenario highlights the difficulty in recovering demand in Europe, which has historically been the main destination for Brazilian orange juice.

Demand in the European Union has behaved differently from what was observed in the previous season. In 2024/25, high prices and tight supply limited purchases, whereas in 2025/26 international wholesale prices dropped sharply and the quality of Brazilian oranges improved. Even so, consumption has been recovering only slowly.

Regarding the 2026/27 season, the international market will depend not only on demand from the United States and the European Union, but also on the regulatory environment and tariff policies in the United States.