PROGNOSFRUIT 2026 – EU apple and pear forecast

Constance, Germany, 5-7 August 2026

At today’s Prognosfruit Conference in Constance, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) unveiled its highly anticipated forecast for the 2026/2027 season. This annual event, co-organised with the BVEO (Bundesvereinigung der Erzeugerorganisationen Obst und Gemüse e.V.), is Europe’s leading forum for the apple and pear sector, attracting industry leaders from across the EU and its neighbourhood as well as delegates from the USA, China, and the Southern Hemisphere. The Conference discussed the outlook for the new season and the future of the sector.

The Prognosfruit Conference kicked off today in Constance (Germany), organised by WAPA with the support of BVEO, the German F&V Producers Organisation. The Conference is returning to Germany, commemorating 50 years of uninterrupted editions, which were first held in this region in 1976. Since then, the Conference has been a meeting place for the apples and pears sector for networking and exchange at the start of every new season. This year, more than 200 delegates from across Europe and beyond are gathering for the 3-day event.

At today’s Prognosfruit 2026 Conference, WAPA released its annual forecast for the 2026/2027 apples and pears season. In 2026, based on the first estimate released today, the apple production in the EU for the top-producing countries is estimated to decrease by 15.6 % compared to last year’s final figure and is set at 9,496,047 t. This year’s crop is also 14.3 % below the average of the previous 3 years. Regarding the main varieties, Golden Delicious production is set to shrink by 11.1 % to 1,809,982 t. Gala, the second-largest variety, is also expected to decrease by 8.9 % to 1,362,797 t, along with Red Delicious (-5.3 % to 496,522 t) and Idared (415,559 t, -19.7 %). On the other hand, the EU pear crop for 2026 is estimated to grow by 5.5 % compared to last year, with a forecast of 1,946,482 t. The total volume is also 9.9 % above the 3-year average, but remains below the orchard potential. Italy’s production is expected to increase by 17.4 % to 347,325 t, while the Dutch estimates are 9.6 % higher than last season’s. Belgium’s pear forecast, on the contrary, is 7.2 % below the 2025/2026 season. In 2026, Conference pear production is estimated to reach 905,693 t (+2.1 %). William BC pear production should also increase by 1.1 % to 211,606 t.

The drop in apples reflects growing pressure on growers from an increasingly complex growing business environment and extreme weather conditions, which are both having a direct and measurable impact on yields across the continent. “This year’s figures are a strong reminder that production cannot be taken for granted,” Philippe Binard, WAPA General Secretary, said when presenting the forecast. “We may be reaching the limits of what current tools and practices can absorb for the competitiveness of the sector, with production and yields impacted by climate events, rising costs and shrinking toolbox to secure yields and quality”. Luc Vanoirbeek, Chair of the COPA-COGECA Working Party on Fruit and Vegetables added: “Political support has not kept pace with the speed at which climate change is affecting our orchards, and other growers are facing increasing constraints to respond. This is not just a question of yield; it’s a question of competitiveness, and ultimately of food security. Food sovereignty in Europe demands giving growers the conditions they need to produce, including stronger incentives and a framework for reinforcing cooperation among growers to respond to the proliferation of challenges within an uncertain political, geopolitical, climate and market landscape”.

This year, climatic conditions have been a perfect storm in different growing places, from deep February frosts to late April, prolonged heat waves and drought, punctual hailstorms and heavy rains. As Prognosfruit is taking place, several production areas are still impacted by adverse temperature and drought conditions. WAPA will continue monitoring its forecast data and assess evolving conditions with members.

The lower crop, as noted in the EU, is also recorded in other places in the Northern Hemisphere, namely in the UK, the USA and India. China’s first forecast indicates stability compared to last year, while Turkey is recovering production after the damages experienced last year.

Prognosfruit’s journey will continue next year on 3-5 August 2027 in Zagreb, Croatia.