USDA: Florida citrus December forecast 2018

All Oranges 77.0 Million Boxes

The 2018-2019 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 77.0 million boxes, unchanged from the November forecast. If realized, this forecast will be 71 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 32.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 45.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2008-2009 through 2016-2017 seasons. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to those 9 seasons unless noted. The hurricane affected 2017-2018 season is excluded from the regressions.

Non-Valencia Oranges 32.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of non-Valencia production is unchanged at 32.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below the minimum and projected to be below the minimum at harvest. Current droppage is above average and is projected to be above average until harvest. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is unchanged at 800 thousand boxes, and is 3 percent of the non-Valencia total. Final Navel size is below average and droppage is close to the maximum.

Valencia Oranges 45.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of Valencia production is unchanged at 45.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below the minimum and is projected to be below the minimum at harvest. Current droppage is above average and projected to be above average at harvest.

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov