Brazil: smaller 2026/27 orange crop may ease pressure on orange juice stocks

The 2026/27 orange crop in São Paulo and in the Triângulo Mineiro and Southwest of Minas Gerais is estimated at 255.2 million 40.8-kilo boxes, 13 % lower than in the previous season, according to the first estimate released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund). The smaller Brazilian supply is expected to ease part of the pressure on global orange juice inventories in the 2025/26 season.

In spite of this, Cepea researchers note that any potential increase in international prices is likely to depend more on demand in major consuming markets than on the production adjustment itself. The sector enters the 2026/27 season under a different scenario from that observed in 2024, when limited supply drove up prices in the international market amid low inventory levels.

From July 2025 to April 2026, Brazilian exports of orange juice totaled 691.99 thousand tons (in volume equivalent to concentrated juice at 66 Brix), up 1.74 % compared to the same period of the previous season, according to data from Secex. Revenue, in turn, fell by 27.4 %.

As for 2026/27, the international market is likely to remain dependent on the demand from Europe and the U.S.