Brazil: Orange juice prices are the lowest in history, but low fruit quality presses the prices down

The low quality of orange juice and the limited demand due to high price levels have resulted in sharp price drops in the international market in this early 2025. The May/25 contract at ICE Futures dropped 20.6 % in the partial of March and 42.8 % in the accumulated of 2025, at 276.45 cents of dollar per pound on March 12.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that, in early March, the orange sugar/acid ratio was below the desirable for crushing activities. Moreover, the excess of limonin, due to a heterogeneous harvesting, has also been affecting the final product, since it increases the juice bitterness, reducing the acceptance of major consumers, such as the United States and the European Union.

Lower prices at ICE Futures contrast with the current scenario of orange juice stocks. CitrusBR released a report on March 10 indicating that inventories finished 2024 at 351,483 tons (converted to FCOJ), downing 24.2 % compared to 2023 and the lowest amount since the beginning of the series.

As for the domestic market, the low quality at this end-of-season period pressed down values paid by the industry.

Weather

The warm weather and the low volume of rainfall in São Paulo state since mid-February concerned citrus growers in early March. Many of them fear that the weather may affect both orange and tahiti lime in this end of the 2024/25 season and the citrus production in the next crop (2025/26).