Brazil: Due to low production and firm demand, orange prices hit records in 2024

Orange prices hit records in 2024. Values of the 40.8 kg box were above BRL 100 in the in natura market. Increases are explained by the firm demand from part of the industry (since players have low orange juice stocks) and the restricted orange supply, because of the limited production.

The weather in the citrus belt was predominantly dry and with high temperatures during the development of the crop. Although prices allowed good profits to citrus growers, the low productivity boosted costs (which had already been high due to the citrus greening disease). Margins may be reduced in areas where the production dropped significantly, despite record prices of the fruit. As for the tahiti lime, quotations were at low levels in the first semester and increased in the second part of the year, because of the offseason period, which is a typical movement.

As a result, due to the limited orange supply and the high demand from the industry, values operated at record levels, in real terms (prices were deflated by the IGP-DI). In October, the price average paid by the industry surpassed BRL 90 per 40.8 kg box. It is worth noting that 2023/24 trades started early, in January, with quotations at around BRL 38 per box. Since inventories at the industry had been limited, the demand in the spot market increased, and prices hit records in real terms, surpassing BRL 100/box in November.

São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro are likely to harvest 223.14 million 40.8 kilo boxes of oranges in the 2024/25 season, for an increase of 7.36 million boxes (or + 3.4 %) compared to the last projection, released in September, but still 9.24 million boxes less (or – 4 %) in relation to the first estimate (May 2024). Therefore, the current season may be 27.4 % smaller than the previous (2023/24), when 307.22 million boxes were harvested – data from Fundecitrus.

The smaller production was already expected in 2024/25, due to unfavourable weather conditions and to the citrus greening disease.

The current scenario is: very limited orange juice stocks in Brazil. Thus, in order to guarantee the global OJ supply, the next production (2025/26) would need to increase in both Brazil and Florida.

As for the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union, it can favour shipments of lime, lemon and orange juice, but can also open a direct channel to receive these fruits from Spain. Still, the agreement is very important and brings good perspectives for the mid and long-terms.