Brazil: Weather should reduce orange supply in November even more

Orange supply should continue low in the in natura market of São Paulo State (SP) in November. Besides the lower harvest in SP and the Triângulo Mineiro in the 2020/21 season, the current high temperatures and rains below average are debilitating plants and constraining fruits development on tree. However, the warmer weather in November should keep demand firm, which may underpin prices, at least in the first fortnight of the month.

As regards the return of rains to the citrus-producing regions in Brazil in late October, the farmers consulted by Cepea indicate that volumes were low, and precipitation was irregular. Thus, the current scenario continues unfavorable to quality and limiting an increase in supply (primarily of pear and late oranges, whose sales are generally higher at this time of the year).

In general, the rains registered in October are a lot lower than the average in the last 30 years. For the first 10 days of November, Climatempo (weather forecast agency) forecasts rains to several areas in SP. If moisture conditions get back to normal, the quality of the oranges may be recovered, and new flowers may open, resulting in a season with crops at different stages and fruits getting ready out of the ideal harvesting period.

2021/22 SEASON – Brazilian agents from the citrus sector have been concerned about the development of next season’s crops (2021/22). As leaves and many flowers have dropped, forecasts are negative.

In some groves in northern SP, where rains were higher, flowers have been reported, but flowering is considered sporadic. Flower settlement will depend on the weather from now onwards, but agents are concerned, since plants are very debilitated.

TAHITI LIME – The availability of tahiti lime should still be low in early November, tending to gradually increase with fruits from irrigated groves. According to agents, rains in late October, although low and sporadic, tend to favor growth – thus, the harvesting may step up in the second fortnight of the month.

However, the volume of tahiti lime should be lower than that initially forecast, since the high price levels in September and early October led some farmers to harvest small-sized fruits, which had not reached the ideal maturation either (these fruits were supposed to be ready in November). However, with the lower number of containers sent to the international market, supply should stay mostly in Brazil.