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Market Data 11.05.2017

Florida Citrus May forecast: Maturity test results and fruit size

The 2016-­2017 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is up 1.00 million boxes to 68.0 million boxes. The total includes 33.0 million boxes of the non-­Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 35.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges.

Florida Citrus May forecast: Maturity test results and fruit size
Citrus May forecast

Regressions

Regression data used are from the 2006-2007 through 2015-2016 seasons. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to these 10 seasons unless noted.

All Oranges 68.0 Million Boxes

The 2016-2017 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is up 1.00 million boxes to 68.0 million boxes. The total includes 33.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 35.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. For the previous 10 seasons used in the regressions, the May all orange forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 2 percent, with 3 seasons above and 7 below, and differences ranging from 3 percent below to 5 percent above.

Non-Valencia Oranges 33.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of non-Valencia production remains at 33.0 million boxes. Harvest is complete for the included varieties. The Navel portion of the non-Valencia forecast unchanged at 800,000 boxes.

Valencia Oranges 35.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of Valencia production is 35.0 million boxes, up 1.00 million boxes from the April Forecast. Weekly certifications in April averaged 3.43 million boxes, down 370,000 boxes from last season’s weekly utilization average.

The Row Count survey conducted April 26-27, 2017 showed 68 percent of the Valencia rows are harvested. Estimated utilization to May 1, including an allocation for other use, is 25.2 million boxes. Processors were surveyed regarding fruit processed through April 30th and the estimated quantity remaining to be processed to the end of the season. Analysis of the Row Count Survey, estimated utilization to the first of the month, and the processors report support raising the late orange forecast.

All Grapefruit 7.80 Million Boxes

The forecast of all grapefruit production is lowered 300,000 boxes to 7.80 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast remains at 1.50 million, while the red grapefruit forecast is lowered 300,000 boxes to 6.30 million. Estimated utilization to May 1, with an allocation for non-certified use, of white grapefruit is 1.50 million boxes and red grapefruit is 6.30 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted April 26-27, 2017, indicated harvest is relatively complete for these varieties.

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: http://bit.ly/2r0RjaJ

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