Brazil: 2025 starts with high prices, but low demand presses down values

Pear orange prices to the industry started 2025 at high levels (BRL 88 per 40.8-kilo box in the first weeks of the year), influenced by the limited supply and the firm demand for fruits, which had presented good quality up until then.

However, prices dropped in the following months. Inventories of orange juice with lower quality and the low demand for new orange batches from the industry led quotations offered by citrus growers to decrease in the second quarter of the year. Moreover, in May, Fundecitrus projected a higher crop in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro, at 314.6 million 40.8-kg boxes.

The high rate of fruit droppage has been in the spotlight since the beginning of the season. Fundecitrus indicated in December that the rate had reached 23 % due to diseases such as the citrus greening and unfavorable weather conditions. Therefore, Fundecitrus reduced the production estimate for the 2025/26 season to 294.81 million boxes.

In addition to that, the sector faced months of uncertainties about the possible US tariff on orange juice imports from Brazil. However, in July, the US government decided to exempt the national product from the extra tariff of 40 %, but keeping the 10 % tax, which was in effect until November 10, 2025. Currently, only the USD 415/ton tariff is in effect.

In spite of that, the performance of exports in the beginning of the season (between July and November 2025) was still below that registered in the same period of the season before.

In this scenario of a delayed crop and of contracts established later and at smaller volumes, the pressure on values was intensified in the last quarter of the year.