Brazil: 2025-2026 orange crop forecast update for the Sao Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt – February 2026
The third update of the 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with professor (retired) from FCAV/Unesp, is 292.60 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90-pound box). In comparison to the May forecast, …
Total orange production1 is updated at 292.60 million boxes
The third update of the 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with professor (retired) from FCAV/Unesp2, is 292.60 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90-pound box). In comparison to the May forecast, the crop season is expected to yield 22 million fewer boxes, a decline of 7%. Compared to the last forecast released in December, which projected 294.81 million boxes, the new estimate indicates a 0.7% reduction, corresponding to a decrease of 2.21 million boxes. This downward trend is due to the estimated smaller average size of late variety oranges, namely Valencia, Folha Murcha, and Natal. It is also estimated that approximately 25.73 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
From May 2025 to January 2026, the average accumulated rainfall in the citrus belt was 862 millimeters, which represents a 10% deficit in relation to the historical average (1991-2020), …
Please download the complete forecast here.
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera, Valencia, Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of Exact Sciences, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.