Prognosfruit 2025

At the Prognosfruit 2025 Conference, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) released its annual forecast for the 2025/2026 season. Apple production across the EU’s top producing countries is expected to remain nearly identical to last year’s volumes, reaching 10.5 million t (-0.1 %), though remaining 7.5 % below the 3- and 5-year average. Golden Delicious, as the main variety of the apple category, will see a minor decrease (-0.9 % to 2.06 million t), while Gala stabilises at 1.43 million t. Red Delicious and Idared are forecast to experience notable drops of -19.2 % and -8.8 % respectively.

On the pear side, EU production is projected to grow by 1.4 % year-on-year to 1.79 million t, though it remains 2.5 % below the 3-year average. Italy’s output is expected to fall again sharply (-24.7 %), offset by substantial increases in Belgium (+32.1 %) and the Netherlands (+8.1 %). Conference pears will rise by +15.6 % to 857,368 t, while William BC production will shrink by -16.7 %.

For both apples and pears, the lower production compared to the previous years’ average reflects ongoing challenges in yield consistency, impacted by climatic havoc, the limited toolbox, the varietal transition towards better but less productive varieties, or the shift to organic.