Brazil: Orange juice is excluded from tariff hike; sector is relieved

July ended with good news for the Brazilian citrus sector. The government from the United States decided to exclude the national orange juice from the tariff hike, bringing a relief for the sector. The US market is dependent on the OJ from Brazil, which is responsible for circa 60 % of the total volume consumed in the United States.

The steep decrease in the US juice output over the last years, especially in Florida, reinforced the vulnerability of the US production chain. In this context, the 50 % tariff could lead to product scarcity, inflationary shocks and logistics disruptions, which led to the exclusion of the OJ from the list of products affected by the new tariff.

For Brazil, the exclusion represents the preservation of the competitiveness in its most important market and avoids income loss.

In general, this scenario may lead players to close new contracts involving 2025/26 oranges again, bringing liquidity to the market.