2024/25 orange juice season: low supply, high prices and uncertainties abroad

The 2024/25 crop in Brazil finished officially in June 2025 with an aspect that is in the spotlight: the volume equivalent to concentrate juice (66º Brix) exported is the smallest of Secex series, but the revenue obtained with sales hit a record.

This scenario is related to the limited production of oranges in Brazil in the 2024/25 season, especially of high-quality fruits. Therefore, the industry had difficulties to produce juice that is compatible to the standards required by international consumers. The low supply of orange juice in the international market, in turn, boosted prices.

In the accumulated of the 2024/25 season (from July/24 to June/25), Brazil exported 776.78 thousand tons of juice, 22.7 % less than in the season before and the lowest since 1997, when the Secex series started.

Although the volume shipped had reduced sharply, high prices increased the income significantly. Comparing 2023/24 and 2024/25 crops, the income rose 28.4 %, totaling USD 3.48 billion, a record. If, on one hand, high values boosted the profitability, on the other, they limited the consumption, especially due to the low quality of the product.

2025/26 season

The expectation for the 2025/26 season is for shipments to regain pace, as inventories of high-quality juice increase and part of the demand from abroad is firm again, following the progress of the national production in the second semester of 2025.

Trump‘s tariffs

The 2024/25 finished with concerning limited exports, in a scenario of uncertainties about a full recovery of the international juice consumption. Some agents fear that the demand from abroad may not be firm again, due to the stagnation of the consumption and/or the still undefined effects of the tariff increase implemented by the Trump government on products from Brazil.