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Market Data 14.03.2019

USDA: Florida citrus March forecast 2019

The 2018-2019 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 77.0 million boxes, unchanged from the February forecast. If realized, this will be 71 percent more than last season’s hurricane affected production.

USDA: Florida citrus March forecast 2019
Citrus production by type – States and United States (Photo: USDA)

All Oranges 77.0 Million Boxes

The 2018-2019 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 77.0 million boxes, unchanged from the February forecast. If realized, this will be 71 percent more than last season’s hurricane affected production. The forecast consists of 31.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (includes Navel varieties) and 46.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2008-2009 through 2016-2017 seasons. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to those 9 seasons unless noted. The hurricane affected 2017-2018 season is excluded from the regressions.

Non-Valencia Oranges 31.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of non-Valencia production is lowered by 1.00 million boxes to 31.0 million. The Row Count survey conducted February 25-26, 2019, showed 97 percent of the early-midseason rows and 84 percent of the Navels rows are harvested. Estimated utilization for non-Valencia oranges to March 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 30.1 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is reduced to 750 thousand boxes.

Valencia Oranges 46.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of Valencia production is increased by 1.00 million boxes to 46.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below the minimum and is projected to be below the minimum at harvest, requiring 268 pieces to fill a 90 pound box. Droppage is now projected to be average at harvest. Harvest of Valencia oranges has begun. …

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov

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