2025-2026 orange crop forecast
The 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on May 09, 2025, by Fundecitrus in cooperation with full professor at FCAV/Unesp1, is 314.60 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90 lbs) each. This production is divided as follows (figures in parentheses indicate the variation in production as compared to the previous crop):
- 49.48 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties (+ 31.49 %);
- 19.86 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada varieties (+ 27.31 %);
- 90.51 million boxes of the Pera variety (+ 21.16 %);
- 114.58 million boxes of the Valencia and Folha Murcha varieties (+ 50.78 %);
- 40.17 million boxes of the Natal variety (+ 49.05 %).
Approximately 26.93 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro (+ 80.3 %).
Overall, the projected volume represents a significant increase of 36.27 % compared to the previous crop season, whose final number was 230.87 million boxes, bringing production back into the average range of the last ten years, …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1José Carlos Barbosa, (voluntary) Full Professor at FCAV/Unesp.
Total forecast production of oranges1 updated to 307.22 million boxes
The second forecast for the 2023-2024 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP, and FCAV/Unesp2, is 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. Of this total estimated production, approximately 27.60 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region.
In this update, the initial projection is reduced by 2.12 million boxes, corresponding to 0.7 %. This adjustment reflects the balance considering all varieties. The oranges from early varieties, already harvested almost entirely, benefited from abundant rains at the beginning of the year, resulting in a production exceeding the estimated 2.27 million boxes …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
2023 -2024 orange crop forecast
The 2023 – 2024 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus beltby Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors at FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp, is 309.34 million boxes (40.8 kg). Total orange production includes:
- 56.11 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties;
- 18.22 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada;
- 98.95 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety;
- 105.23 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties;
- 30.83 million boxes of the Natal variety.
Approximately 27.02 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
The projected volume is lower only by 1.55 percent as compared to the previous crop, which totaled 314.21 million boxes. That minor difference maintains the production at the same level as in the previous crop season and within the average range for the last ten years, as shown in Graph 1. As compared to the average volume produced in the last decade, the current crop shows a slight increase of 1.04 percent …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
Orange production for the 2021-2022 crop season totaled 262.97 million boxes1
The 2021-2022 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 11, 2022, by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 is 262.97 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. Approximately 23.35 million boxes were produced in West Minas Gerais.
This final figure was 10.61 % smaller than the initially expected volume published in May 2021, corresponding to a significant crop loss of 31.20 million boxes. Although this was an “on-year” for the alternate-bearing, when plants produced a larger amount of fruit, a sharp decrease in rainfall and more intense atypical frosts inhibited the growth of oranges and contributed to an increased early fruit drop, therefore reducing the number of oranges at harvest. Under those conditions, there was a yield loss in groves, which made the crop decrease 2.11 % as compared to the previous one, resulting in a small crop for the second consecutive year. Total orange production included:
- 47.16 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
- 14.85 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple early-season varieties;
- 74.78 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
- 96.59 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
- 29.59 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.
The May 2021 forecast considered that the yield of groves would be affected due to the lower rainfall volume that was already forecast for 2021. However, forecasts did not point to climate conditions as extreme as those observed, which brought greater than expected damage. The prolonged dry spell turned out to be the worst drought in almost a century, with water shortage in practically all regions of the citrus belt. That critical situation severely impacted rainfed groves, which encompass approximately 70 % of the total area and inevitably rely on rainfall. But even irrigated groves were affected by drought. In many locations, rivers and reservoirs reached the most critical levels ever recorded, restricting water use for irrigation. This crop’s most critical period was from May to September 2021, when accumulated rainfall was almost 70 % below historical average. The scenario started to improve in late September and early October when spring came …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
Orange production for the 2020-2021 crop season totaled 268.63 million boxes1
The final 2020-2021 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 12, 2021 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – was 268.63 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lb), which represents a decrease of 6.65 % in relation to the first crop forecast published in May 2020, accounting for a reduction of 19.13 million boxes. This crop had a decrease of 118.16 million boxes in comparison to the previous season, which is equivalent to a volume 30.55 % smaller than that of the 2019-2020 cycle, confirming a record crop loss for all the years in which the crop suffered the physiological effects of the negative biennial production cycle of orange trees since the beginning of the historical series in 1988. Total orange production included:
- 47.00 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
- 13.85 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple early-season varieties;
- 81.45 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
- 91.95 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
- 34.38 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.
- Approximately 19.33 million boxes were produced in West Minas Gerais.
One of the reasons that explains this substantial crop loss is the fact that orange trees started flowering in the spring of 2019, when reserves were lower because they had been used in the previous crop season when there was a significant yield increase. Decreased reserves led to a significant reduction in the number of fruits per tree in this season, a phenomenon known as alternate bearing. The other reason is the strong negative influence of the climate throughout the season. …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
