On the occasion of its Annual General Meeting in Fruit Logistica, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. According to the forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, apple production is set to grow by 5,5 % compared to 2024, while the pear crop is expected to decrease by 3,3 %.

On Friday 7 February 2025, the World Apple and Pear Association held its Annual General Meeting. During the Meeting, which took place during Fruit Logistica in Berlin, WAPA presented the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. This report has been compiled based on figures from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand Apples, and South Africa, and therefore provides consolidated data from the six leading Southern Hemisphere countries.

Regarding apples, the Southern Hemisphere 2025 crop forecast suggests an increase of 5,5 % to a total of 4.746.639 t compared to last year (4.499.328 t). South Africa is expected to maintain its lead as the largest producer with 1.474.767 t (+ 3,4 from 2024), followed by Brazil (950.000 t, + 14,2), Chile (920.000 t, + 0,7 %), New Zealand (544.949 t, + 5,6 %), Argentina (537.000 t, + 5,8 %), and Australia (319.923 t, + 5,5 %). With 1.564.499 t, Gala is by far the most popular variety, with its volume growing by 6,8 % from 2024 although 2,3 % below the average of the previous 3 years. Exports are also expected to increase (+ 5,3 %) to reach 1.653.976 t. South Africa (+ 5,5 %) and Chile (+ 1 %), the two largest exporters, are both expected to increase their export volumes, reaching 641.488 t and 507.000 t respectively. Exports from New Zealand should grow by 9,7 % (376.106 t in total), with growing export quantities also forecasted for Argentina (90.000 t, + 8,2 %) and Brazil (36.547 t, + 14,6 %).

Regarding pears, the Southern Hemisphere growers predict a slight decline in the crop (- 3,3 %), bringing the total to 1.446.970 t. Argentina (616.000 t), the largest producing country, is expected to decrease its volumes by 10,9 %. South Africa (551.642 t), Chile (208.025 t), and Australia (62.467 t), on the other hand, are all expected to increase their production by 2,9 %, 3 %, and 4,2 % respectively. Packham’s Triumph remains the most produced variety (601.322 t, despite a 2,7 % decrease compared to 2024), followed by Williams’ bon chrétien pears (288.729 t). Export figures are also expected to decrease from 2024, with a total of 689.155 t (- 4,4 %).

The EU production forecast, which was first published during Prognosfruit 2024, was revised to 10.388.550 t (down 9,7 % from 2023) for apples and 1.792.839 t (+ 5,1%) for pears. European apple stocks stood at 3.687.100 t as of 1 January 2025, which is 4,3 % lower than in 2024. On the other hand, the total of 608.544 t for European pears is 4,5 % above the figures from the previous year. The US apple forecast for 2024 stood at 5.376.986 t (- 2,3 % from 2023), while the pear volumes were updated to 390.128 t (- 21,5 %). Stock figures in the USA were 3,9 % lower than in 2024 for apples (2.053.915 t) and 26 % lower for pears (106.100 t).

The Prognosfruit Conference is Europe’s leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, gathering apple and pear experts from across Europe and beyond. Prognosfruit 2024 took place in Budapest, Hungary. During the conference, WAPA (World Apple and Pear Association) released its forecast for the upcoming season of 2024/2025. The forecast for apples is set at 10,2 million t, 11,3 % lower than last year. The pear crop shows a slight recovery from 2023, increasing by 4,9 % to 1,79 million t.

Prognosfruit, the leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, took place in Budapest, Hungary. Prognosfruit 2024 was organised by WAPA in cooperation with FruitVeB (Magyar Zöldség-Gyümölcs Szakmaközi Szervezet). The meeting was opened with an address by István Nagy, Hungarian Minister of Agriculture, currently holding the rotating EU Presidency. He presented the agenda and priorities of the European Council of Agriculture Ministers. This agenda includes the future direction of the agricultural policy in challenging times and the future of the CAP, to secure the competitiveness of the production, and to address the impact of climate change, the sustainability debate, food security, labour issues, and geopolitical uncertainties.

In 2024, the apple production in the EU for the top producing countries contributing to this report is estimated to decrease by 11,3 % compared to last year to a total of 10.207.405 t. This year’s crop is also 13,6 % below the average of the previous 3 years. Regarding the main varieties, Golden Delicious production is set to shrink by 10,2 % to a total of 1.972.514 t. Gala, the second-largest variety, is expected to decrease by 11,1 % (1.350.835 t). Red Delicious is estimated to grow in production (+2,8 %), while Idared’s should be 18,4 % lower than in 2023.

The EU pear crop for 2024, on the other hand, is estimated to grow by 4,9 % compared to last year’s production with a total of 1.790.229 t. This increase is due to the recovery in Italy’s production (+120,5 % compared to 2023) and despite a reduction in the Belgian and Dutch figures (-26,6 % and -8,7 % respectively). In 2024, the production of Conference pears is estimated to decrease by 13,5 %, to 776.128 t. William BC pear production, on the other hand, should grow by 33,8 %. Abate Fetel’s production is forecasted to recover to 124.832 t (+131,8 %)

The market balance will be influenced by a relative steadiness of volume destined for the fresh market due to stable production Western part of the EU in France, Italy, and Spain. On the other hand, the Central and Eastern regions of the European Union were heavily impacted by poor blossoming, late frost, and hail, leading to lower crops in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Austria. This will imply a lower supply for apple processing in the 2024/2025 season.

The outlook for the season is overall positive and should provide opportunities for better returns for the sector, which still faces the challenges of inflation and rising costs of the past months.

On the occasion of its Annual General Meeting in Fruit Logistica, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. According to the forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, apple production is set to grow by 1,1 % compared to 2023, while the pear crop is expected to decrease by 2,3 %.

On Friday 9 February 2024, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) held its Annual General Meeting. During the Meeting, which took place during Fruit Logistica in Berlin, WAPA presented the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. This report has been compiled with the support of CAFI (Argentina), APAL (Australia), ABPM (Brazil), Fruits from Chile (Chile), New Zealand Apples and Pears (New Zealand), and Hortgro (South Africa), and therefore provides consolidated data from the six leading Southern Hemisphere countries.

Regarding apples, the Southern Hemisphere 2024 crop forecast suggests an increase of 1,1 % to a total of 4.775.530 t compared to last year (4.725.574 t). South Africa is expected to maintain its lead as the largest producer with 1.396.659 t (+ 4,6 from 2023), followed by Brazil (1.100.000 t, in line with 2023), Chile (912.000 t, – 8,4 %), New Zealand (557.871 t, + 14,7 %), Argentina (501.000 t, – 4,8 %), and Australia (308.000 t, + 5,8 %). With 1.578.148 t, Gala is by far the most popular variety, with its volume remaining in line with 2023 although 11,4 % below the average of the previous 3 years. Exports are also expected to increase (+ 8 %) to reach 1.551.696 t. South Africa (+ 5,1 %) and Chile (+ 5,3 %), the two largest exporters, are both expected to increase their export volumes, reaching 572.280 t and 493.000 t respectively. Exports from New Zealand should grow by 22,2 % (381.729 t in total), while lower export quantities are forecasted for Argentina (70.000 t, – 4,1 %) and Brazil (32.000 t, – 10,6 %).

Regarding pears, the Southern Hemisphere growers predict a slight decline in the crop (- 2,3 %), bringing the total to 1.465.800 t. Argentina (614.000 t), Chile (203.000 t), and Australia (72.000 t) are expected to decrease their production by 6 %, 5,4 %, and 2,7 % respectively. South Africa’s production levels are forecasted to increase to 567.334 t (+ 3,4 % from 2023), as well as New Zealand’s (+ 8,4 %, with 9.066 t in total). Packham’s Triumph remains the most produced variety (508.000 t, with a slight 1,3 % decrease compared to 2023), followed by Williams’ bon chrétien pears (300.082 t). Export figures are expected to be in line with 2023 with a total of 654.323 t.

European apple stocks stood at 3.851.098 t as of 1 January 2024, which is 4,6 % lower than in 2023. Similarly, the total of 582.587 t for European pears is 4,4 % below the figures from the previous year. On the other hand, stock figures are higher in the USA, both for apples (2.138.376 t, + 33,6 %) and for pears (169.474 t, + 14,9 %).

During the Annual General Meeting, Jeff Correa (Pear Bureau Northwest – USA) was elected as the President of the association, taking over from Dominik Woźniak (Society for Promotion of Dwarf Fruit Orchards / Rajpol – Poland). Nick Dicey (Hortgro – South Africa) will join him as the Vice-President. Regarding his new role, Mr Correa commented: “I’m honoured that I have been elected as the next Chairman of WAPA. I look forward to working with the WAPA staff and membership to advance the data sharing, market insights, and explore new avenues that will benefit the organization and its members”. Finally, the Annual General Meeting confirmed that the next edition of Prognosfruit will be held in Budapest, Hungary, on 7-9 August 2024.

With the first part of this year’s harvesting on its way, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has started revising its annual Apple and Pear Crop Forecast based on the latest insights from its members on the season. The first EU apple estimates, which were released on 3 August 2023 during the Prognosfruit Conference, indicated a 3,3 % decrease compared to last year, to a total of 11.410.681 t. The EU pear crop for 2023 was estimated to decrease by 12,9 % compared to last year’s crop with a total of 1.745.632 t.

The early forecast is released during Prognosfruit, when harvesting is just about to start. The crop can therefore still be impacted by nature and climatic factors up to late October, with either a positive or negative impact on the quantity and quality of the harvest. Historically, these adjustments to the forecast amounted to small percentage variations.

The first updates from Prognosfruit’s network of national producing associations indicate that climate change- related conditions negatively affected the crop in the weeks following the publication of the original estimates. The climatic havoc included droughts, floodings, hail, warm nights, and an increased risk of pests across the EU. In other cases, rains and colder nights have positively impacted the size development and colouring respectively in some producing regions.

Regarding this season, while the apple harvesting is still expected to carry on for several weeks, based on the first regional adjustments (both upward and downward) WAPA estimates that the 2023 apple crop is expected to settle at just below 11 million t (about 4 % lower than the original forecast).

In regard to pears, a further decline of the forecast in Italy, Spain, Belgium, and the Netherlands will lead to a lower crop, even lower than in 2021. The final pear crop is expected to be around 1.720.000 T, about 6 % lower than the initial forecast.

WAPA will continue to monitor closely the harvesting developments in Europe, with the objective of consolidating the most accurate and recent figures into its final Crop Forecast later this year once harvesting is completed.

The Prognosfruit Conference, Europe’s leading annual event of the apple and pear sector, is right around the corner. On 2-4 August 2023, the Italian region of Trentino (Italy) will welcome an estimated 300 delegates from Europe and beyond. Registration is still open for sector representatives interested in getting the latest updates on the preparations for the upcoming apple and pear season.

Prognosfruit, the leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, will take place in Trentino, Italy, from the 2nd to the 4th of August 2023. Prognosfruit 2023 is organised by WAPA in cooperation this year with APOT (Associazione Produttori Ortofrutticoli Trentini). After more than 20 years, the Italian region of Trentino is ready to welcome back a delegation of 300 leaders from the apple and pear sector from Europe and beyond. Registration is open on the Prognosfruit website until 25 July 2023, along with all the information to book accommodation in Trento.

The complete programme of Prognosfruit 2023 is available on the Prognosfruit website. The three-day event will gather the most important representatives of the sector to learn about the upcoming European apple and pear production and latest market trends, covering as well as the EU neighbourhood and the USA, China, and India. Philippe Binard, Secretary General of WAPA commented: “Prognosfruit is a long-established event for the European apples and pears sector. It has been on the agenda of the sector for 48 years. Besides the session that will reveal the key features for the Northern Hemisphere 2023/2024 apple and pear production forecast and corresponding market analysis, we are pleased this year to complement the programme with insightful new sessions on the demand side with an organic market outlook and a retail panel on adapting to consumer’s expectation. Mr Binard added “Despite on-going challenges of rising costs impacting both the sector and consumers and unpredictable climatic events, the first indicators for both apples and pears look very promising and will lead to interesting exchange during the conference in the middle of one of the most important production places”. To facilitate the debate, simultaneous translation will be available in Italian, English, French, and German.

The Prognosfruit Conference is Europe’s leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, gathering growers from across Europe and beyond. Following last year’s successful return as an in-person event, Prognosfruit 2023 will take place in Trentino, Italy, from the 2nd to the 4th of August 2023. Registration is now open, and stakeholders and journalists are welcome to register via the Prognosfruit website.

Prognosfruit, the leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, will take place in Trentino, Italy, from the 2nd to the 4th of August 2023. Prognosfruit 2023 is organised by WAPA in cooperation with APOT (Associazione Produttori Ortofrutticoli Trentini). Registration is now open on the Prognosfruit website.

Alessandro Dalpiaz (APOT) commented on the event’s return to Trentino: “We are honoured to host in Trentino the most important international conference dedicated to apples and pears. Prognosfruit is certainly an important opportunity to present to the participants the ability of an organised system to deal with environmental issues, geopolitical crises, and market uncertainties. Prognosfruit also represents an occasion to bring the attention of the participants to those understated yet relevant values of mountain areas, with their arts, traditions, stories, and landscapes that attract and make millions of visitors think every year”.

Since 1976, Prognosfruit has released the annual forecast of apple and pear production for the upcoming season. This year, the three-day event during which the report will be released will see representatives of the sector gather to discuss the Northern Hemisphere situation as well as global perspectives for apples and pears. Following the Prognosfruit Conference on August 3rd, the delegates will have the opportunity to participate in technical and cultural visits to Melinda’s Underground Warehouses, San Romedio Sanctuary, and Valer Castle.

WAPA Secretary General Philippe Binard stated: “Last year’s edition reminded us all how important Prognosfruit and its three-day programme are for the apple and pear sector. Prognosfruit provides the opportunity for the delegates to meet up and discuss the latest developments and the future of the market, which is especially important in challenging times like the ones the sector is currently dealing with”.

The draft programme of Prognosfruit 2023 and the online registration form to attend the conference are both available on the Prognosfruit website.

Following the intense weather events that affected several countries in the Southern Hemisphere, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released an update of the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast that was originally presented during the Association’s latest Annual General Meeting in Berlin’s Fruit Logistica. According to the revised forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, apple production is set to increase by 2,38 % to reach 4.974.990 T, while pear production is expected to decrease by 1,25 % to a total of 1.319.601 T.

During its latest Annual General Meeting in Berlin’s Fruit Logistica, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) presented the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. The yearly report is compiled with the support of ASOEX (Chile), CAFI (Argentina), ABPM (Brazil), Hortgro (South Africa), APAL (Australia), and New Zealand Apples and Pears, and therefore provides consolidated data from the six leading Southern Hemisphere countries. The initial forecast for the 2023 season, which estimated a 6 % and 1 % increase for apples and pears respectively compared to 2022, has been revised in light of the intense weather events that affected several countries in the Southern Hemisphere. New Zealand’s and South Africa’s apple crop forecasts have been revised downward by 77.902 T and 77.276 T respectively. New Zealand’s pear crop estimates have also been slightly decreased compared to the initial forecast (- 323 T), as well as South Africa’s (- 28.726 T).

Regarding apples, the updated Southern Hemisphere 2023 crop forecast suggests an increase of 2 % to a total of 4.974.990 T compared to last year (4.859.026 T). A smaller apple crop is expected in New Zealand, (457.675 T, – 9 % compared to 2022), Australia (- 8 % compared to 2022, to a total of 290.000 T), and South Africa (1.142.880 T, down 5 %). Chile remains the largest producer (1.409.633 T, in line with 2022), now followed by Brazil (1.150.000 T, + 12 %). Argentina’s apple production should reach 525.000 T (+ 24 % compared to 2022). Exports are also expected to decrease (- 3 % compared to 2022) to a total of 1.556.668 T. Chile remains the largest exporter (604.000 T) followed by South Africa (509.158 T), whose exports are forecasted to decrease by 10 %. Exports from New Zealand (286.823 T) and Australia (2.687 T) are also expected to decrease by 15 % and 1 % respectively. Brazil’s (70.000 T) and Argentina’s exports (84.000 T), on the other hand, are expected to recover from the low 2022 figures. With 1.843.130 T, Gala remains by far the most popular variety, with its production expected to increase by 4 % compared to 2022.

Regarding pears, the Southern Hemisphere growers predict a slight decrease of the crop (- 1 %), which will drop to 1.319.601 T. While Argentina and Chile are expected to increase their production by 4 % and 2 % respectively, South Africa’s (- 6 %), Australia’s (- 16 %), and New Zealand’s (- 19 %) production levels are all expected to decrease. Argentina remains the largest producer in the Southern Hemisphere (592.000 T), followed by South Africa (477.419 T), Chile (170.000 T), Australia (72.016 T), and New Zealand (8.120 T). Packham’s Triumph remains the most produced variety (481.049 T, in line with 2022), followed by Williams’ bon chrétien pears (332.447 T). Export figures are expected to be stable (670.054 T), with a 12 % increase in Argentinian exports and a 13 % decrease in exports from South Africa.

WAPA, the World Apple and Pear Association, has released the apple and pear stock figures from 1 July 2022. The figures show that in Europe apple stocks increased by 16.5 % compared to 2021 to reach 535,521 T, while pear stocks increased by 27 % to 27,535 T. In the USA, pear stocks reached 10,403 T (75.2 % above 2021).

WAPA, the World Apple and Pear Association, collects every month the stock figures for apples and pears from Europe and the United States. WAPA can reveal that European apple stocks stood at 535,521 T as of 1 July 2022, which is 16.5 % above the figure of 2021. This trend can be explained by the increases concerning Jonagold (108.4 % up from 2021), Gala (+ 29.4 %), Red Jonaprince (+ 25.3 %), and Golden Delicious (+ 13 %), although several varieties reported a decrease compared to 2021, most notably Gloster, which halved its stocks compared to 2021 and Granny Smith (- 33.8 %). Pear stocks stood at 27,535 T on 1 July 2022, 27 % above the volume of 2021 thanks to Rocha (+ 4,060 T compared to 2021) and Conference pears (+ 1,970 T). Pears stocks in the USA stood at 10,403 T (75.2 % above 2021), with Anjou pears reaching 9,223 T and Red Anjou pears also increasing from 2021 ( + 957 T).

The Prognosfruit Conference is Europe’s leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, gathering growers from across Europe. After two successful online events in 2020 and 2021, Prognosfruit returns as an in-person event in Belgrade, Serbia, from the 3rd to the 5th of August 2022. Registrations are now open, and stakeholders and journalists are welcome to register via the Prognosfruit website. The complete programme of the 3-day event is now available.

Prognosfruit, the leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, will take place in Belgrade, Serbia, from the 3rd to the 5th of August 2022, returning as an in-person event after two successful online editions. Registrations for Prognosfruit 2022, organised by WAPA in cooperation with Serbia Does Apples, are now open on the Prognosfruit website.

Since 1976, Prognosfruit has released the annual apple and pear production forecast for the upcoming season. This year, the three-day event during which the report will be released will see representatives of the sector gather to discuss the Northern Hemisphere situation as well as global perspectives for apples and pears. The complete programme of Prognosfruit 2022 is available below and on the Prognosfruit website, along with the online registration form to attend the conference.

The 3-day event will be structured as follows:

• On August 3rd, the Prognosfruit 2022 participants will enjoy a sightseeing tour of the city of Belgrade, followed
  by the Welcome Reception, which will take place at Belgrade’s Royal Palace;
• The Prognosfruit 2022 Conference will take place on August 4th at the Hyatt Regency Belgrade. In the morning session, the European apple and pear forecast for the upcoming season will be revealed and complemented by an analysis of the market situation in the USA and China and a panel discussion with the major EU producers. The afternoon session will focus on the global perspectives for apples and pears, with an analysis of rising costs and logistical hurdles and an analysis of the sector in the EU neighbourhood;
• The Conference will be followed by a Gala Dinner at the Kalemegdanska terasa on the evening of August 4th;
• The event will conclude on August 5th with a technical visit to the apple orchard of the company Atos Fructum,
  on the southern slope of Fruška Gora.

All the information about Prognosfruit 2022 and the online registration form to attend the conference available on the Prognosfruit website.

WAPA, the World Apple and Pear Association, released the apple and pear stock figures from 1 May 2022. The figures show that in Europe apple stocks increased by 17.7 % compared to 2021 to reach 1,542,655 T, while pear stocks increased by 2.4 % to 155,401 T. In the USA, apple stocks as of 1 May 2022 stood at 785,260 T (+8.5 % compared to 2021), while pear stocks reached 45,758 T (50.5 % above 2021).

WAPA, the World Apple and Pear Association, collects every month the stock figures for apples and pears from Europe and the United States. WAPA can reveal that European apple stocks stood at 1,542,655 T as of 1 May 2022, which is 17.7 % above the figure of 2021. This trend can be explained by the increases concerning Red Jonaprince (65.6 % up from 2021), Gala (+ 56.1 %), Jonagold (+ 40.8 %), and Golden Delicious (+ 27.7 %), although several varieties reported a decrease compared to 2021, most notably Gloster (- 71.3 %) and Granny Smith (- 19.8 %). On the other hand, pear stocks stood at 155,401 T on 1 May 2022, 2.4 % above the volume of 2021. While the Italian varieties were down to zero, Portugal’s Rocha pears increased substantially (+ 30,678 T above 2021’s levels).

In the USA, apple stocks in May stood at 785,260 T (+ 8.5 % compared to 2021). Cosmic Crisp (+ 473.8 % compared to 2021), Granny Smith (+ 60.8 %), and Pink Lady (+ 22.8 %) compensated for the decrease in several major varieties, such as Fuji (- 27.3 %) and Red Delicious (- 9.3 %). Pears stocks in the USA stood at 45,758 T, which is 50.5 % above last year, with Anjou pears increasing by 51.3 %.

WAPA, the World Apple and Pear Association, released the apple and pear stock figures from 1 March 2022. The figures show that in Europe apple stocks increased by 8.6 % compared to 2021 to reach 2,935,962 T, while pear stocks decreased by 14.9 % to 388,495 T. In the USA, apple stocks as of 1 March 2022 stood at 1,275,346 T (+ 1.6 % compared to 2021), while pear stocks reached 111,912 T (37.7 % above 2021).

WAPA, the World Apple and Pear Association, collects every month the stock figures for apples and pears from Europe and the United States. WAPA can reveal that European apple stocks stood at 2,935,962 T as of 1 March 2022, which is 8.6 % above the figure of 2021. This was mainly driven by the increases concerning Red Jonaprince (54 % up from 2021), Jonagold (+ 27.9 %), Golden Delicious (+ 23.3 %), and Gala (+ 18.4 %), and despite the decrease in some major varieties, including Granny Smith (- 20 %) and Cripps Pink (- 14.9 %). On the other hand, pear stocks stood at 388,495 T on 1 March 2022, 14.9 % below the volume of 2021. The decrease in the Italian varieties (Abate Fetel – 97.8 % and Kaiser – 95.2 %) was partially mitigated by the stark increase in Portugal’s Rocha pears (+ 59,614 T compared to March 2021).

In the USA, apple stocks in March stood at 1,275,346 T (+ 1.6 % compared to 2021). The decrease among several large varieties, such as Fuji (- 20.8 %), Red Delicious (- 11.7 %), and Gala (- 9 %) was compensated by the 216.5 % increase in Cosmic Crisp apples, which reached 51.576 T, and the 36.5 % increase in the Granny Smith variety. Pears stocks in the USA stood at 111,912 T, which is 37.7 % above last year.

WAPA, the World Apple and Pear Association, released today the apple and pear stock figures from 1 February 2022. The figures show that in Europe apple stocks increased by 7.2 % compared to 2021 to reach 3,606,980 T, while pear stocks decreased by 30 % to 408,340 T. In the USA, apple stocks as of 1 February 2022 stood at 1,478,180 T (- 0.8 % compared to 2021), while pear stocks reached 149,553 T (31.9 % above 2021).

WAPA, the World Apple and Pear Association, collects every month the stock figures for apples and pears from Europe and the United States. WAPA can reveal that European apple stocks stood at 3,606,980 T as of 1 February 2022, which is 7.2 % above the figure of 2021. This was mainly driven by the increases concerning Red Jonaprince (35.9 % up from 2021), Golden Delicious (+ 22.5 %), Gala (+ 19.9 %), and Jonagold (+ 17.2 %), while several varieties decreased, including Cripps Pink (- 17.3 %) and Granny Smith (- 13.2 %). On the other hand, pear stocks stood at 408,340 on 1 January 2022, 30 % below the volume of 2021, mostly because of the large decrease in Italy (- 83.2 %).

In the USA, apple stocks in January stood at 1,478,180 T (down 0.8 % compared to 2021). The overall stability is due to the fact that Granny Smith’s 26.9 % increase over 2021 compensated for the decrease among several large varieties, such as Fuji (- 19.1 %), Red Delicious (- 12.6 %), and Gala (- 9.3 %). Pears stocks in the USA stood at 149,553 T, which is 31.9 % above last year.

On the occasion of its Annual General Meeting, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. According to the forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, apple and pear production is estimated to decrease by 7 % and 6 % respectively in 2022 compared to the previous year.

On 24 February 2022, on the occasion of its Annual General Meeting, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released its 2022 apple and pear crop estimate for the Southern Hemisphere. This report has been compiled with the support of ASOEX (Chile), CAFI (Argentina), ABPM (Brazil), Hortgro (South Africa), APAL (Australia) and New Zealand Apples and Pears, and therefore provides consolidated data from the six leading Southern Hemisphere countries. WAPA’s Secretary General Philippe Binard commented “This forecast is released for the global apples and pears sector on the background of many uncertainties, including the geopolitical tension, the increasing costs for production, the impact of the rise of logistic costs and limited container availability, labour shortage and the increasing concerns of declining consumption due to economic situation”

The 2022 Southern Hemisphere apple crop forecast suggests a decrease of 7 % to a total of 4.864.000 T compared to last year (5.217.000 T), mainly due to the 30 % decrease in Brazil and the 11 % decrease in Argentina. Australia and Chile are also forecasted to decrease their production by 3 % and 2 % respectively. New Zealand and South Africa are the only countries where apple production is expected to increase (15 % and 4 % respectively). Chile is expected to remain the largest Southern Hemisphere apple producer in 2022 (1.455.000 T), followed by South Africa (1.163.000 T), Brazil (900.000 T), New Zealand (590.000 T), Argentina (445.000 T), and Australia (311.000 T). With 1.706.000 T, Gala remains by far the most popular variety, although its production is expected to decrease by 7 % compared to 2021. Despite the decrease in production, exports are forecasted to remain stable overall at 1.744.762 T, with the larger volumes exported by New Zealand (+ 17 %) and South Africa (+ 6 %) compensating for the 65 % decrease in Brazilian apple exports.

Regarding pears, the Southern Hemisphere growers predict a 6 % decrease of the crop, which will drop to 1.229.000 T. This is mainly due to the 13 % decrease in Argentina, the 11 % decrease in Chile, and the 6 % decrease in Australia. New Zealand and South Africa, on the other hand, are expected to increase their production by 31 % and 5 % respectively. Argentina remains the largest producer in the Southern Hemisphere (522.000 T), followed by South Africa (492.000 T), Chile (122.000 T), Australia (81.000 T), and New Zealand (11.000 T). Packham’s Triumph remains the most produced variety (444.000 T, despite a 4 % decrease compared to 2021), followed by Williams’ bon chrétien pears (306.000 T). Export figures are expected to decrease by 6 % compared to 2021 to a total of 641.207 T, mainly because of a 14 % decrease in Argentinian exports.

In the Northern Hemisphere, the stocks in the USA stood at 1.478.180 T (- 1 % compared to last year) for apples and 149.553 T for pears (+ 32 % compared to last year) on the 1st of February. In Europe, apple and pear stocks stood at 3.606.980 T (7 % up from last year) and 408.340 T (30 % down from last year). Philippe Binard commented: “Season developments clearly demonstrate the impact of logistics and costs on international trade also for Northern Hemisphere suppliers, with the USA concentrating sales for apples and pears in North America. European markets continue to be affected by the Belarus embargo, while the recent developments in Ukraine will also impact sales to all the destinations in Eastern Europe, including Russia, for all global apples and pears suppliers. It is important to continue building efforts to stimulate the consumption”. WAPA’s Annual General Meeting also hosted a discussion on CO2 emissions and how apple and pear production can reach carbon neutrality or even have a positive contribution to the environment. WAPA will continue to cooperate on this topic with its members in a dedicated working group based on the input and expertise of the University of Bolzano (Italy).

Finally, the Annual General Meeting also confirmed that Prognosfruit will return as an in-person event in the first half of August 2022 in Belgrade (Serbia). The exact date of the event will soon be announced.

WAPA, the World Apple and Pear Association, released the apple and pear stock figures from 1 February 2022. The figures show that in Europe apple stocks increased by 7.2 % compared to 2021 to reach 3,606,980 T, while pear stocks decreased by 30 % to 408,340 T. In the USA, apple stocks as of 1 February 2022 stood at 1,478,180 T (- 0.8 % compared to 2021), while pear stocks reached 149,553 T (31.9 % above 2021).

WAPA, the World Apple and Pear Association, collects every month the stock figures for apples and pears from Europe and the United States. WAPA can reveal that European apple stocks stood at 3,606,980 T as of 1 February 2022, which is 7.2 % above the figure of 2021. This was mainly driven by the increases concerning Red Jonaprince (35.9 % up from 2021), Golden Delicious (+ 22.5 %), Gala (+ 19.9 %), and Jonagold (+ 17.2 %), while several varieties decreased, including Cripps Pink (- 17.3 %) and Granny Smith (- 13.2 %). On the other hand, pear stocks stood at 408,340 on 1 January 2022, 30 % below the volume of 2021, mostly because of the large decrease in Italy (- 83.2 %).

In the USA, apple stocks in January stood at 1,478,180 T (down 0.8 % compared to 2021). The overall stability is due to the fact that Granny Smith’s 26.9 % increase over 2021 compensated for the decrease among several large varieties, such as Fuji (- 19.1 %), Red Delicious (- 12.6 %), and Gala (- 9.3 %). Pears stocks in the USA stood at 149,553 T, which is 31.9 % above last year.

WAPA, the World Apple and Pear Association, released the first apple and pear stock figures of 2022. The figures show that in Europe apple stocks increased by 5.1 % compared to 2021 to reach 4,308,683 T, while pear stocks decreased by 18.2 % to 661,587 T. In the USA, apple stocks as of 1 January 2022 stood at 1,674,042 T (- 2.7 % compared to 2021), while pear stocks reached 190,192 T (24.8 % above 2021).

WAPA, the World Apple and Pear Association, collects every month the stock figures for apples and pears from Europe and the United States. WAPA can reveal that European apple stocks stood at 4,308,683 T as of 1 January 2022, which is 5.1 % above the figure of 2021. This increase was mainly driven by Golden Delicious (up 19.5 % from 2021), Jonagold (+ 15.8 %), and Gala (+ 15.7 %), which compensated for the decrease in several varieties, most notably Granny Smith (- 12.5 %) and Cripps Pink (- 11 %). On the other hand, pear stocks stood at 661,587 on 1 January 2022, 18.2 % below the volume of 2021, mostly because of the large decrease in Italy.

In the USA, apple stocks in January stood at 1,674,042 T, down 2.7 % compared to 2021. This is due to a decrease among the largest varieties, such as Fuji (- 19.6 %), Honeycrisp (- 15.5 %), Red Delicious (- 12.5 %), and Gala (- 8.3 %), and despite significant increases for Cosmic Crisp (+ 147 %) and Pink Lady (+ 17.4 %). Pears stocks in the USA stood at 190,192 T, which is 24.8 % above last year.

WAPA, the World Apple and Pear Association, released the first apple and pear stock figures of the season. The figures show that in Europe apple stocks increased by 6,8 % compared to 2020 to reach 4,917,891 T, while pear stocks decreased by 27 % to 656,438 T. In the USA, apple stocks as of 1 December 2021 stood at 1,909,045 T (- 2,6 % compared to 2020), while pear stocks reached 224,278 T (21,6 % above 2020).

WAPA, the World Apple and Pear Association, collects every month the stock figures for apples and pears from Europe and the United States. WAPA can reveal that European apple stocks stood at 4,917,891 T as of 1 December 2021, which is 6,8 % above the figure of 2020, which reflects the 11 % increase in the crop. On the other hand, pear stocks stood at 656,438 T on 1 December 2021, 27 % below the volume of 2020, mostly because of the large decrease in Italy. In Europe, the final pear crop is 26 % lower than a year ago. For the USA, apple stocks in December stand at 1,909,045 T, down 2,6 % compared to 2020. This level is reflecting the lower crop in Washington States this year, which stands at just below 3.000,000 T, 4 % less than last year. Pears stocks in the USA stand at 224,278 T, which is 21,6 % above last year.

WAPA, the World Apple and Pear Association, released the updated Northern Hemisphere Apple and Pear Crop Forecast. As crops have now been fully harvested since the first figures were released in August 2021, minor adjustments were made in different countries, although the new estimates are still in line with the original forecast. As the Northern Hemisphere season is getting into full swing, stocks depletion figures will be provided as well by the Association.

During the month of December, WAPA has been consolidating the forecast of apples and pears production for the Northern Hemisphere released during the month of August. As the season is now in full swing and harvest is completed, WAPA is reporting on the latest development for apples and pears in the Northern Hemisphere, while already looking to prepare the Southern Hemisphere 2022 forecast, which will be announced during the last week of February on the occasion of the WAPA Annual General Assembly. Overall, the countries survey by WAPA covers a production of 81 Mio T of apples and 23 Mio T of pears.

The updated estimates for European apple production of the 21 top EU producing countries and the United Kingdom increased by 160.000 T to stand at 11.895,000 T, which is 1,36 % more than what originally forecasted at 11.735,000 T. The forecast for the season is ultimately 11 % (or 1.195,000 T) up from the last year. The new figure is influenced by an increase in Poland (+ 130.000 T to 4,3 Mio T) as well as in Belgium (+ 48.000 T to 240.000 T) and Austria (+ 5.000 T to 120.000 T) but compensated by a decrease in France (- 12.000 T to 1.363.000 T) and the Netherlands (- 5.000 T to 245.000 T). Italy remains stable at 2.044.000 T, with 2.000 T less compared to the initial forecast of August. On the varieties side, the main changes concern Red Jonaprince (+ 53.000 T to 475.000 T), Jonagold (+ 26.000 T to 444.000 T), Idared (+ 24.000 T to 709.000 T), Red Delicious and Pinova (+ 14.000 T each, reaching 654.000 T and 197.000 T respectively), and Cripps Pink (+ 7.000 T to 240.000 T). On the other hand, Gala decreased (- 10.000 T to 1.553.000 T). Other EU countries and Switzerand represent around 200.000 T. In the USA, the apple crop is confirmed to be stable at 4,644.000 T (6 % down to last year), despite some readjustment within the breakdown by states and varieties. The major varieties in the USA are Gala (863.000 T), Red Delicious (625.000 T), and Honey Crisps (542.000 T). Varietal shift continues in the US orchards, with positive development with new varieties such as Ambrosia and Cosmic Crisp. In the US neighbourhood, Mexico’s production in 2021 was down by 2 % at 700.000 T, while Canada’s production dropped 11 % to 360.000 T. The Chinese apple crop was estimated in August just below 45 Mio T, dominated by the Shaanxi (12,5 Mio T) and Shandong (9,5 Mio T) provinces, which together account for close to 50 % of the Chinese apples production. The crop in EU neighbourhood was set at 8 Mio T, covering Turkey (4 Mio T), Russia (1,4 Mio T), Ukraine (1,3 Mio T), Moldova (600.000 T), Serbia (535.000 T), and North Macedonia (140.000 T). In Central Asia, the apple crop is around 2,5 Mio T, out of which 50 % is in Uzbekistan (1.250.000 T), followed by Azerbaijan (300.000 T), Tajikistan (250.000 T), Kazakhstan (200.000 T), and Kyrgystan (150.000 T). Production in India is forecasted at 2,65 Mio T. In the Southern Hemisphere, the final apple crop was set at 5.230.000 T.

In regard to pears, the European pear production is estimated to reach 1.666,000 T in 2021/2022, which is 3,87 % (or 61.000 T) above the August forecast. This increase is resulting from an increase in Belgium (+ 59.000 T to 354.000 T) and the Netherlands (+ 15.000T to 340.000 T) but compensated among others by a decrease in France (- 1.000 T to 56.000 T) and a further decline in the Italian crop due to the severe consequences of the climatic havocs experienced in the main producing regions (- 11.000 T to 202.000 T, while the orchard potential is over 700.000 T). On the varieties, Conference is set to increased by 68.000 T to 873.000 T while Abate should decrease by 12.000 T to
53.000 T. Regarding USA pear production, there is a slight increase from 525.000 T to 529.000 T, driven by Oregon and Washington State, while production in California is severely impacted by the lack of water and labour shortage . The main varieties for the seasons are Williams BC (270.000 T), Anjou (170.000 T), and Bosc (60.000 T). Elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, China reported a forecast of pear production of 18,5 Mio T, Turkey of 539.000 T, and India of 89.000 T. In the Southern Hemisphere, the 2021 pears crop ended with a total volume of 1.346.000 T.

Philippe Binard, Secretary-General of WAPA commented: “This year, given the difficult climatic conditions, forecast of production was not easy to be made, in particular regarding the uncertainties on the impact of frost and other spring weather conditions for the quality and the size of products. Looking back, the work undertaken in the different countries was rather precise, as only limited variations were noted. Those were primarily influenced by the good conditions during the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere”. Mr Binard added: “In addition to the apple and pear production forecast, WAPA collects stock figures from the major producing countries throughout the season. As of December, WAPA is resuming the collection of data for the stocks as now the crop is fully harvested and stocks data are now able to be calculated in a reliable manner”.

WAPA can reveal that EU apple stocks stood at 4,865,028 T as of 1 December 2021, which is 6.9 % above the figure of 2020, which reflects the 11 % increase in the crop. On the other hand, pear stocks stood at 654,484 T on 1 December 2021, 26,9 % below the volume of 2020, mostly because of the large decrease in Italy. In Europe, the final pear crop is 26 % lower than a year ago. For the USA, apple stocks in December stand at 1,909,045 T, down 2,58 % compared to 2020. This level is reflecting the lower crop in Washington States this year, which stands at just below 3.000,000 T, 4 % less than last year. Pears stocks in the USA stand at 224,278 T, which is 21,6 % above last year.

In regard to the current season, Domink Wozniak, President of WAPA commented: “Several factors influence the development of this Northern Hemisphere season. The rise in costs for production input, packaging, energy or labour as well as the predicted inflation will have an impact on prodcuer’s margins and competitiveness. Moreover, logistics challenges in terms of availability and costs are some of the new factors influencing trade patterns. Mixed fortune is also expected on market access considering for the European exporters the Belarus embargo as of January 1st combined with the on- going Russian embargo. For the USA, the effects of counter-sanctions in the Steel and Aluminium dossiers are affecting in particular US exports to distant markets such as India . USA trade is expected to primarily focus in North America to the Mexican and Canadian neighbours. In Asia, all exporters are confronted with increased burdens to access China due to increased COVID related controls and logistics hurdles in the port”. On the global stage, one should consider the role of new players such as Serbia, Moldova, Ukraine, Turkey, or Iran. China is also developing its export potential with exports now exceeding one million tons on apples, primarily to South East Asian neighbour. Mr Wozniak added: “Overall in the Northern Hemisphere, the local sourcing will remain a priority in many places considering on-going uncertainties on the world market. However, the growth of apple and pear production in the North Hemisphere, in particular in EU neighbourhood and Central Asia, makes it important to continue diversify the variety assortment for taste expected by consumers. Raising the quality and meeting new sustainability expectations of policy and consumers would facilitate a new boost of the consumption of apples and pears. At the same time, the global apple and pear community should continue searching for new opportunities for the apple and pear consumption in many markets around the world”.

WAPA is slated to host Prongosfruit in Belgrade (Serbia) on 10 and 11 August 2022, in cooperation with Serbia Does Apples. Information will be provided end of March 2022 on the Prognosfruit website (www.prognosfruit.eu).

Prognosfruit’s 2021 European apple and pear crop forecast revealed that while apple production is set to increase by 10 %, the upcoming pear crop is expected to decrease by 28 %. On 5 August 2021, more than 150 international representatives from the apple and pear sector joined the Prognosfruit 2021 Online Conference, the second virtual edition of the event in its 46 years, to discuss the 2021 production forecast for apples and pears.

The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) released the 2021/2022 European apple and pear crop estimate on the occasion of the 46th edition of the Prognosfruit. WAPA Secretary General Philippe Binard stated: “The apple production in the EU for the 21 top producing countries contributing to this report is estimated for the 2021/2022 season to be 11.735,000 T. Overall, this year’s crop is estimated to be 10 % higher than last year, but 1 % only up from the 3-year average. It is therefore perceived to be a season with a balanced outlook”.

Philippe Binard added ”While the EU apple crop is larger, the EU pear crop for 2021/2022 is estimated to decrease by 28 % compared to last year to 1.604.000 T and by 27 % compared to the three-year average. This is the smallest decade crop for pears” On the varieties, this translates into a decrease of Conference pear by 18% to 805.000 T. Abate is also impacted with a crop reduced to 66.000 T, down by 73 %”.

WAPA will continue to monitor the developments of the Northern Hemisphere crop and will issue updates when available.

Prognosfruit Conference, Europe’s leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, is taking place in a few days with an outstanding programme. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Prognosfruit 2021 will again take place as an online event. The event will take place on 5 August 2021 in the morning with an attractive programme for delegates to find out the key factors that will shape the upcoming season with insightful views from industry leaders from Europe and around the world. Registrations are closing soon, and stakeholders and journalists are welcome to register via the Prognosfruit website.

The 46th edition of Prognosfruit will take place on 5 August in the morning (CEST) and will explore the upcoming apples and pears crop for the European Union and its immediate neighbourhood. Climatic conditions will once again be one of the key influencers of the 2021/2022 production outlook. To find out more about the season’s outlook, an attractive programme has been designed by the organizer for this year’s Prognosfruit Conference.

As part of the programme Philippe Binard, WAPA Secretary General, will set the scene for the upcoming apples and pears crop, while Helwig Schwartau, Market Analyst at AMI, will share a market outlook based on the crop forecast. Franz Ennser, CEO of Austria Juice, will provide the latest processing trends and Fritz Prem, Europäisches Biobst-Forum President, will review the latest organic production developments, an important aspect considering the European Union’s ambitions to significantly boost production and consumption of organic products as part of the European Green Deal and Farm to Fork Strategy.

Mr Binard stated that, “This year Prognosfruit will also have strong international connotations with review of other Northern Hemisphere developments. Experts from the USA, China, Russia and India will share their perspectives on the outlook and trends for the upcoming apples and pears crops in these other key Northern Hemisphere production regions”. Beside and as it was the case in previous Prognosfruit editions, an in-depth exchange of views in panels will take place with key representatives of the EU leading producing countries to learn more about the production specifics across Europe. The panel will also include a representative from the Southern Hemisphere for a broader perspective of the market switch between the Southern and Northern Hemisphere seasons.

Commenting on the 46th edition of Prognosfruit Dominik Wozniak, President of WAPA, stated, “We are increasingly producing and trading under an unpredictable climatic and market environment. Nowadays, late spring frosts, hail, drought, flood, evolving plant health conditions due to climate change as well as factors such as COVID-19 , market access uncertainties or Brexit are significantly influencing our day-to-day production and trading activities. Prognosfruit is the place to learn more from colleagues about how these factors will influence the next apples and pears season. Picking is expected to start this year a bit later than normal conditions. First estimations indicate more production than the previous two years, but we are all looking forward to hearing the consolidated Prognosfruit estimate for a better assessement”.

Luc Vanoirbeek, Chairman of COPA COGECA Fruit and Vegetables Working Group, concluded, “I am pleased that despite the constraints of the sanitary conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impossibility to meet in person, Prognosfruit remains the lead annual conference on the agenda for the apples and pears sector.” This year marks the 46th edition of Prognofruit, an event with a long tradition of being a very professional and productive gathering for the apples and pears community. Mr Vanoirbeek added, “I am pleased that again this year we have a large attendance for this virtual format, but we are all looking forward to meeting again physically next year in Serbia if the sanitary situation allows”.

The programme of Prognosfruit 2021 and the online registration form to attend the conference are both available on the Prognosfruit website.

The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop production forecast for the upcoming season. According to the forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, apple production is estimated to increase by 6 % in 2021 compared to the previous year, while pear production is projected to stabilise.

The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released its 2021 apple and pear crop estimate for the Southern Hemisphere. This report has been compiled with the support of ASOEX (Chile), CAFI (Argentina), ABPM (Brazil), Hortgro (South Africa), APAL (Australia) and New Zealand Apples and Pears, and therefore provides consolidated data from the six leading Southern Hemisphere countries. WAPA’s Secretary General Philippe Binard commented on the usefulness of gathering the insights from these major producers: “Elaborating this collective data has previously proved a valuable exercise for the global apple and pear industry and a reliable source of information when the season progressively shifts from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere”.

Regarding apples, the aggregate Southern Hemisphere 2021 crop forecast suggests an increase of 6 % (5.090.000 T) compared to last year (4.818.000 T), with increases in Australia, Brazil, and South Africa of 23 %, 20 % and 6 % respectively, a decrease in New Zealand of 5 %, and stable figures in Argentina and Chile. The aggregate increased by 2 % compared to the average of crops between 2018 and 2020. Chile remains the largest Southern Hemisphere apple producer in 2021 with 1.512 million T, with Brazil in second place (1.130 million T), followed by South Africa (1.013 million T), Argentina (617 million T), New Zealand (547 million T), and Australia (271 million T). Gala remains the main variety (39 %), followed by Fuji (14 %) and Red Delicious (13 %). Export figures are estimated to stabilise at 1.691.562 T, with stable figures for Chile (650.773 T), a 4 % increase for South Africa (476.000 T), and a 7 % decrease for New Zealand (372.000 T).

Regarding pears, the Southern Hemisphere growers predict a stabilisation of the crop at 1.346.000 T and an increase of 2 % compared to the overall average of years 2018-2020. The increase in South Africa, Australia, and Argentina of 3 %, 2 %, and 1 % respectively are expected to compensate for the 3 % and the 10 % decrease in Chile and New Zealand. As in previous years, Packham’s Triumph and Williams BC/Bartlett are the major varieties, with 36 % and 28 % respectively. Forecasted export figures for pears are reported to increase by 6 % compared to the previous year and reach 708.690 T, with a 12 % increase for Argentina (373.996 T), a 2 % increase for South Africa (214.361 T), and a 3 % decrease for Chile (108.315 T).

Prognosfruit’s 2020 European apple and pear crop forecast revealed that most European countries are expecting an overall stable apple and pear crop for the coming season. On 6 August 2020, more than 150 international representatives from the apple and pear sector joined the Prognosfruit 2020 Online Conference, the first ever virtual version of the event in its 45 years to discuss the 2020 forecast.

During the conference, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) released the 2020 European apple and pear crop estimate. In 2020, the apple production in the EU for the 21 top producing countries contributing to this report is estimated to be just slightly below last year’s result, with a 1 % decrease and a crop of 10.711,000 T. Overall, this year’s crop is estimated to be 4 % lower than the 3- year average. On the other hand, the EU pear crop for 2020 is estimated to increase by 12 % compared to last year to 2.199.000 T. However, a revision of some of the figures presented at Prognosfruit is to be expected in the upcoming weeks. WAPA will continue to monitor the developments of the Northern Hemisphere crop and will issue updates when appropriate.

The virtual conference featured a presentation of the forecast for apples and pears by WAPA Secretary General Philippe Binard, a market analysis by AMI Market Analyst Helwig Schwartau, an overview of the latest trends in processing by Austria Juice CEO Franz Ennser and for organic by Europäisches Bioobst-Forum President Fritz Prem, as well as two panel discussions for apples and pears respectively.

Earlier this year, the Prognosfruit 2020 organisers announced the cancellation of the event, scheduled to take place in Belgrade (Serbia), due to the uncertainties of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, due to popular demand the event was rescheduled as a a virtual conference. Belgrade will now host Prognosfruit in 2021 instead.

Over the years, Prognosfruit has become the leading annual meeting point for the European apple and pear sector. Each year the conference gathers around 300 leaders from the apple and pear sector in a different European country in early August. Prognosfruit is an opportunity not to be missed to debate the latest sector developments and be informed on the annual apple and pear crop forecast.

For the first time since the initiation of Prognosfruit in 1976, the organizers of the 2020 edition have had to take the difficult decision to regretfully cancel this year’s conference. Prognosfruit was scheduled to take place later this year in Belgrade (Serbia) from 5-7 August 2020.

The global COVID-19 pandemic has prevented Prognosfruit from being organized this year under normal conditions. So far, there is no indication when the current travel restrictions within the European Union and on the external borders of the European Union will be lifted. Furthermore, at the time of the conference some quarantine rules might still be in place as well as other restrictions on transport and social distancing.

It has been agreed with Serbia Does Apples, the local organizer of conference planned conference in 2020 in Belgrade, that Prognosfruit 2021 will take place in Serbia.

In the meantime and regarding the 2020 forecast, WAPA will release the apple and pear forecast as usual. The modalities of disclosing the 2020 forecast will be announced in July.

The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) held its Annual General Meeting on the last day of the Fruit Logistica fair in Berlin (Germany), 7 February 2020. Representatives of the key global apple and pear producing and exporting countries met to discuss the Southern Hemisphere production forecast, the final update of the Northern Hemisphere production forecast that was released in August 2019, and the season developments.

WAPA discussed and released the consolidated crop forecasts for the forthcoming southern hemisphere apple and pear seasons (see SH Statistics aggregate in email). Collected from industry associations in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa, the forecast showed that the 2020 apple and pear Southern Hemisphere crops are expected to reach 5.003.000 T and 1.276.000 T, respectively. For apples, this represents a small decrease of 1 % compared to the 2019 crop. Export is expected to remain stable at 1.725 million T. The pear crop is expected to decrease by 3 % compared to 2019. Export is expected to decrease by 2 % to 691.660 T. The Northern Hemisphere crop and stocks data were also updated. Overall, the forecasts continue to demonstrate the huge variation in crop sizes due to the consequences of climatic havocs impacting the production. Furthermore, the Eurasian apple growing developments and global reporting initiatives were discussed.

Other topics on the agenda were marketing, promotion and consumption trends, and research and innovation activities among the members. The discussion underlines the efforts of the sector to cope with the new market requirements and expectations to reduce pesticide dependency. It also focussed on the development of new sustainable strategies regarding water usage, biodiversity, carbon emissions, adapting packaging to the plastic debate and continuing to promote the health benefits of apples and pears to consumers around the world.

The 2019 European apple and pear crop forecast estimates that most European countries are expecting a rather low apple and pear crop for the coming season. On 8 August 2019, close to 300 representatives of the international apple and pear sector met at the Prognosfruit Conference in Alden Biesen, Belgium. During the conference, the 2019 European apple and pear crop estimate was released. This year, the apple production in the EU is set at 10.5 million T as a result of climatic events and the alternation of last year’s bumper crop. This is a decrease of 20 % compared to last year’s record high crop and of 8 % compared to the average crop of the three previous years. The pear crop is predicted at 2 million T, a decrease of 14 % compared to 2018. Nevertheless, comparisons with previous years need to be handled with much caution, given last two years’ exceptional variation.

Apart from crop alternation after a bumper, this year’s crop estimation has been influenced by several factors, including in particular a mild winter, a cold and wet May, late frost, a sunny and warm June, heat wave and drought in July, abrupt changes in temperature, and low blossoming. However, these events were scattered, and their impact differs significantly between regions. Additionally, for pear, the overall low figure is mainly due to a decrease in estimation of Italian pears which caused the overall forecast to be the second lowest of the decade. The drop was mainly the result of low blossoming, influenced by the high crop, heat of last season and rain.

A general comment for apple is that the crop in the Eastern part of the EU has been affected by the cold snap in May, with losses of 44 % of last year’s record high in Poland. In most apple producing countries, however, there were moderate decreases or stabilisation of the crop. France, Spain and Portugal are recording an increase of their crop. In terms of quality, there might be issues with sunburn and sizing. For pear, there are estimations of moderate to more serious decreases in all major pear producing countries, except for a small increase in Spain. Overall, there are still overhanging stocks on the market, but the late start of the season by up to two weeks might contribute to a better balance of the market.

The crop estimation needs to be held against a complex market situation, given the ongoing consequences of an increasingly more challenging global trading environment. Therefore, efforts to boost consumption need to be continued. WAPA will continue to monitor the developments of the Northern Hemisphere crop and will issue updates when appropriate.

According to tradition, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) held its Annual General Meeting on the last day of the Fruit Logistica fair in Berlin, 8 February 2019. Representatives of the key global apple and pear producing and exporting countries met to discuss the Southern Hemisphere production forecast, the final update of the Northern Hemisphere production forecast that was released in August 2018, and the season developments.

WAPA discussed and released the consolidated crop forecasts for the forthcoming southern hemisphere apple and pear seasons (see tables in annex). Collected from industry associations in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa, the forecast showed that the 2019 apple and pear Southern Hemisphere crops are expected to reach 5.261.000 T and 1.327.000 T, respectively. For apples, this represents an increase of 2 % compared to the 2018 crop. Export is expected to remain stable at 1.738 million T. The pear crop is expected to increase by 2 % compared to 2018. Export is expected to remain stable at 712.154 T.

Other topics on the agenda were marketing, promotion and consumption trends, research and innovation activities among the members, and global initiatives to preserve the biodiversity of the many apple varieties.

Finally, WAPA elected a new president, Nicholas Dicey from HortGro, South Africa, formerly WAPA’s vice-president. As new vice-president, Dominik Wozniak from the Polish Society for Promotion of Dwarf Fruit Orchards was elected. The WAPA secretariat and members are looking forward to continuing the good trends in the coming years with its new presidency and thanked Todd Fryhover from Washington Apple Commission for his time and efforts as WAPA’s vice- president and president over the last four years.

Close to 300 representatives of the international apple and pear sector met at the Prognosfruit Conference on 10th August 2017 in Lleida, Spain. During the Prognosfruit conference, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA), released the 2017 European apple and pear crop estimates. The 2017 apple production in the EU will decrease by 21 % compared to last year’s crop, standing at 9.343.000 T. The pear crop is predicted by European growers to be relatively stable at 2.148.000 T and to only decrease by 1 % compared to 2016.

The figures released at Prognosfruit leave room for careful optimism for the coming season, with a more balanced situation between supply and demand after the last three years, which registered in particular for apples, a peak crop.

The 2017 European forecast for apple is 9.343.000 T, which is 21 % down to last year’s figure, and 23 % less than the average of the last three years. This figure is based on the estimates from the top 21 Member States of the EU-28, having contributed to this report. In regard to varieties, Golden Delicious production will decrease by 18 % to 1.982.000 T. Gala is also estimated to decrease, by 3 % to 1.276.000 T. Idared will be down by 30 % to 679.000 T, while the production of Red Delicious is estimated at 576.000 T, which is a 9 % decrease compared to last year. Also, other new varieties (i.e. club varieties) will decrease by 15 %, from 157.000 T to 133.000 T. A particular point of concern this year was the intense frost during blossoming, and the drought during spring and early summer. In other non-EU Northern Hemisphere countries, significant decreases were noted: Russia (-37 %), Mexico (-30 %), Switzerland (-21 %), Belarus (-19 %), Ukraine (-10 %), and Canada (-5 %), while the USA is expecting a stable crop around 4.800.000 T. Additionally, China is expecting a further growth by 3 % compared to last year’s crop of 43.800.00 T. The US apple forecast will be updated after the US Apple Outlook conference in Chicago 24-25 August.

More specifically about the EU apple market, it is to be reminded that, over the last years, the market suffered the consequences of the Russian embargo and were more recently confronted by lower export volumes to North African markets. The new crop could therefore lead to a better balance of the supply. The market will start clearing stocks for most varieties, with expected good hand over from the Southern Hemisphere. Overall, the new season is due to start with two weeks earlier than average. There might be different market trends for each of the varieties, with better balance for Gala and more reduced volume for Golden or Jonagold, and Elstar. In the coming weeks, growers will closely monitor the quality, which could still influence the balance of the market between fruit destined for the fresh market and the fruit destined for processing. It is currently forecasted that ca 6.200.000 T will be moving on the fresh market and 3.200.000 T for processing.

In regard to pear, the total European pear crop in 2017 is estimated to reach 2.148.000 T, which is 1 % lower than last year, and 8 % less compared to the average of the last three years. This figure relates to the production of the top 19 Member States of the EU-28 growing pears and contributing with their data to this report. In 2017, the Conference variety will see its production decrease by 7 % to 844.000 T, and William BC will decrease by 6 % to 247.000 T. Abate F, on the other hand, is estimated to increase by 12 % to reach 332.000 T. Elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, crops increased, compared to last year, in Turkey (+11 %), Canada (+20 %) and Moldova (+50 %), whilst decreases are estimated for the production in Russia (-37 %), Belarus (-20 %), Switzerland (-34 %), and the US (-3 %).

In regard to the specifics, the market will be experiencing different trends between the Southern and Northern EU markets, reflected as well in higher volume of Abate and Rocha, while the Conference pear will be down. The pear season will start with less pressure than last year. There has been some positive development in the exports to new markets during the last years, but the effects of the Russian embargo will still be felt by the growers.

Overall, the European apple and pear sector stays committed to the best quality produce to be placed on the market and continues to adapt the orchards to varieties with taste and crunchiness adapted to evolving consumers’ expectations.

WAPA will continue to monitor the development of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere crop, and will issue updates whenever feasible and necessary.