All oranges 74.0 million boxes

The 2019-2020 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 74.0 million boxes, 3 percent more than last season’s final production. The total includes 32.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 42.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The Navel orange forecast, at 800 thousand boxes, accounts for 3 percent of the non-Valencia total.

The estimated number of bearing trees for all oranges is 50.1 million. Trees planted in 2016 and earlier are considered bearing this season. Field work for the latest Commercial Citrus Inventory was completed in June 2019. Attrition rates were applied to the results to determine the number of bearing trees which are used to weight and expand objective count data in the forecast model.

A 9 year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom.

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov

All Oranges 77.0 Million Boxes

The 2018-2019 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 77.0 million boxes, unchanged from the February forecast. If realized, this will be 71 percent more than last season’s hurricane affected production. The forecast consists of 31.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (includes Navel varieties) and 46.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2008-2009 through 2016-2017 seasons. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to those 9 seasons unless noted. The hurricane affected 2017-2018 season is excluded from the regressions.

Non-Valencia Oranges 31.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of non-Valencia production is lowered by 1.00 million boxes to 31.0 million. The Row Count survey conducted February 25-26, 2019, showed 97 percent of the early-midseason rows and 84 percent of the Navels rows are harvested. Estimated utilization for non-Valencia oranges to March 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 30.1 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is reduced to 750 thousand boxes.

Valencia Oranges 46.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of Valencia production is increased by 1.00 million boxes to 46.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below the minimum and is projected to be below the minimum at harvest, requiring 268 pieces to fill a 90 pound box. Droppage is now projected to be average at harvest. Harvest of Valencia oranges has begun. …

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov

All Oranges 46.0 Million Boxes

The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 46.0 million boxes, down 4.00 million boxes from the November forecast. If realized, this forecast will be 33 percent less than last season’s production and the least since the 1944-1945 season of 42.2 million boxes. The forecast consists of 19.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 27.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2007-2008 through 2016-2017 seasons. For those previous 10 seasons, the December forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 6 percent, with 8 seasons above and 2 below, with differences ranging from 16 percent below to 16 percent above. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons unless noted.

Non-Valencia Oranges 19.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of non-Valencia production is lowered 2.00 million boxes to 19.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and is projected to be above the maximum until harvest. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is lowered to 500 thousand boxes, and is 3 percent of the non-Valencia total. Final Navel size is below average and droppage is well above the maximum.

Valencia Oranges 27.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of Valencia production is reduced 2.00 million boxes to 27.0 million boxes. If realized, this will be the smallest Florida Valencia crop since the 1949-1950 season. Current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest.

All Grapefruit 4.65 Million Boxes

The forecast of all grapefruit production is unchanged at 4.65 million boxes. If realized, this forecast will be 40 percent less than last season’s production and the least recorded since the 1918-1919 season. The white grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 850 thousand boxes. The red grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 3.80 million boxes. Projected fruit size of white grapefruit at harvest is above average while projected droppage is above the maximum. Projected fruit size of red grapefruit at harvest is projected to be above average and droppage is projected to be above the maximum.

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov