After two months of price drops, orange values are expected to increase again in the in natura market in June. Processing activities are likely to be intensified, since more companies have started to operate, limiting the supply of fruits in the in natura market. Players say that, although the demand is usually lower in this period, since the weather is colder, the supply in the in natura market is expected to be smaller than the demand.

Orange prices already increased in the second fortnight of May, after the release of estimates of a lower output by Fundecitrus. Thus, many producers stopped harvesting fruits for the in natura market, preferring to meet the demand from the industry.

In May, the average for the pear orange was BRL 80.22 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, downing 11.21 % in relation to April/24.

Although prices dropped from April to May, they are still at high levels. In addition to the forecast of a small crop, low stocks of orange juice have been boosting the industrial demand for fruits.

Tahiti lime

The supply is expected to continue limited in June, due to the below-average volume of rainfall. Colder temperatures have concerned producers, since this scenario may result in characteristics that purchasers disapprove, especially in the international market. In May, the price average was at BRL 32.62 per 27-kilo box, harvested, 18.96% up compared to April.

Ponkan tangerine

Prices may move up in June, especially from the second fortnight on, when the supply in São Paulo tends to decrease. Moreover, the fruit can be a good alternative for orange and other fruits, which are presenting higher quotations. On the other hand, the demand is likely to decrease due to the cold weather, limiting more significant price rises.

Harvesting activities for ponkan tangerine have started in March in São Paulo state, but the volumes available are still limited. According to players surveyed by Cepea, the supply is expected to increase significantly from April onwards, when more fruits hit the ideal ripening stage.

First tangerines harvested come from irrigated orange groves, where the development is more advanced, such as in the north of São Paulo state and Minas Gerais.

The season is expected to continue up to mid-August, and the volume harvested may be similar to that registered in the last crop, according to agents surveyed by Cepea. As for the quality, it has been considered satisfactory, in spite of some cases of Alternaria citri, which have been controlled successfully.

The current low supply of ponkan tangerine has been keeping quotations attractive to producers. From March 25-28, the price average was at BRL 95.53 per 27-kilo box, on tree, 36.4 % up compared to the same period in 2023, in nominal terms.

The holidays of Good Friday and Easter, the end-of-the-month period and lower temperatures in late March have limited the demand for oranges. However, prices continue to move up due to the restricted supply. As for the tahiti lime, despite the low consumption, rains and the slow pace of the harvest limited the supply, boosting quotations.

For marketing year (MY) 2021/22, Post revises its estimates for fresh lemon production to 1.90 million metric tons (MMT), up by 15 percent, due to favourable weather conditions. Fresh orange production is projected to increase to 920,000 metric tons (MT), and fresh tangerine production is expected to increase to 400,000 MT. Recent relatively favourable weather conditions for both sweet citrus fruits have allowed trees to recuperate from a stressful period characterised by drought followed by heavy rains. Lemon exports are projected to increase to 250,000 MT due to larger production, and sweet citrus exports are expected to increase slightly to 65,000 MT for tangerines and to 88,000 MT for oranges. Container availability shortages and higher fleet costs, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and global inflation, are impacting the activity of the Argentine citrus industry, increasing export costs by 100 percent.

Please download the full report: https://apps.fas.usda.gov

Orange crushing in the 2019/20 crop slowed down in the first fortnight of March at most of the processors in São Paulo State, due to the low supply in the Brazilian citrus belt. Currently, only one plant (in Araraquara) among the three large-sized processors is crushing oranges, primarily early pera rio and late varieties (natal and folha murcha). As usual, this plant should keep activities going until the crushing beginning for the 2020/21 crop.

Besides the lower orange supply, the quality of the fruits allocated to the industry is below the expected. Although yield is considered satisfactory this season, it has been affected by the frequent rains in the first two months of 2020.

BRAZILIAN SPOT MARKET – As both supply and quality decreased in the first fortnight of March, the prices paid for oranges dropped – the quotes paid for the fruits harvested and delivered at processing plants averaged 18.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box in the first half of the month, against 20.00 BRL/box in February.

At smaller-sized processors, remuneration ranged from 18 BRL to 24 BRL per box, according to yield and quality (the processors that make fresh juice were paying higher prices for the fruits).

As regards the oranges from the 2020/21 crop, sales have not started yet – opposite to the scenario in the two previous seasons, when, between October and November, agents from plants started to bid in order to close deals. Uncertainties about the output in the 2020/21 season may be hampering price fixing by processors – it is worth to mention that production estimates should only be released in May.

MARCH – The firmer weather in tahiti lime producing regions favored the harvesting of the variety in the first fortnight of March, which, added to the lower demand from both the international market and domestic processing plants (since a large-sized processors has ended activities), pressed down quotes in that period. Between March 2 and 13, tahiti lime prices averaged 9.86 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 7.9 % down compared to that in the first half of February.

As regards oranges, sales increased in that period, while supply decreased. The growers consulted by Cepea reported the harvesting end for late oranges, which should increase the share of early oranges in the total volume traded this month. In general, the harvesting pace is expected to be slow for these varieties, which may underpin orange quotes in the in natura market. In the first fortnight of March, pear orange prices averaged 34.86 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 6.7 % up compared to that in the same period of the previous month.

PONKAN TANGERINE – The harvesting of ponkan tangerine started in late February in the citrus producing regions from São Paulo State – despite the slow pace. Supply (mainly of higher quality ponkan tangerine) should only increase from the second fortnight of March, when the variety starts to reach the ideal maturation to be traded in the in natura market.

Some growers harvested ponkan tangerine before the ideal maturation for trading, aiming to take advantage of the attractive price levels and the offseason period for pear and late oranges from the 2019/20 crop.

Agents expect the volume of ponkan tangerine to be lower than that in the previous season, based on the dry weather between September and October – when fruits were developing – and on the lower vegetative vigor of plants, after a large crop. In general, production was low in the last years, with well-distributed and sparse crops.

This season, fruits quality should be lower than in 2019, due to the weather. Frequent and high rains in the first two months of 2020 favored the incidence of fungal diseases and rotting after the harvesting.

Ponkan tangerine season is near the end in São Paulo State. According to agents consulted by Cepea, only a few crops still have some volume to be harvested in early July. In most of the regions, production has already ended. Now, the in natura market from SP has been supplied by other states, mainly Minas Gerais (MG).

According to Cepea collaborators, the crop period (mature fruits) should last for two or three more weeks in that state. However, the fruits from the second flowering event have not been harvested yet. Thus, farmers estimate production to continue until September.

As for quality, agents have reported that fruit growth in MG was hampered by the weather, since it has not rained significantly in that region since April. Thus, ponkan tangerine from that state are mid-sized.

SP – As expected by agents, the harvested volume of ponkan tangerine in São Paulo State is smaller this year. While in 2017 supply lasted for seven months, this year, availability is already low – June is the fourth production month and the crop peak occurred between April and May.

However, the available volume decreased in late May, since some farmers from SP reported fruit losses during truckers’ strike, due to the long period on trucks and higher sensibility of that variety (which was already more mature than oranges).

Prices for ponkan tangerine in 2018 are above the monthly averages last year (from March to June). Lower supply this year, in turn, is linked to unfavorable weather during the development of the fruits, in the second semester of 2017, and the lower vigor of plants, after a large crop last year.

In general, production was low in the last years, with well-distributed crops, no crop peak and not lasting longer than four months. The 2017 season was atypical, due to the different development stages of the fruits at groves, which allowed the harvesting to last longer than in previous years.

In June, supply decreased and prices rose in São Paulo. According to Cepea collaborators, the demand for ponkan was firm in that period – higher than for other citrus varieties. Thus, from June 1 to 20, quotes for ponkan tangerine averaged 36.80 BRL per 27-kilo box, on tree, 10% up compared to that in May (2 – 30).

ORANGE – In June, orange prices were underpinned by low supply of fruits at the ripening stage required by the in natura market. Moreover, the industrial demand is already stepping up, reducing supply in the spot market from São Paulo.

All Oranges 45.0 Million Boxes

The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 45.0 million boxes, unchanged from the March forecast. The total includes of 19.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 26.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges.

Non-Valencia Oranges 19.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of non-Valencia production is unchanged at 19.0 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted March 27-28, 2018, showed 99 percent of the early-midseason rows are harvested. Estimated utilization for non-Valencia oranges to April 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 18.9 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, remains at 500 thousand boxes, 3 percent of the non-Valencia total.

Valencia Oranges 26.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of Valencia production is unchanged at 26.0 million boxes. Final fruit size is below average, requiring 236 pieces to fill a 90-pound box. Final droppage is above the maximum. The Row Count survey conducted March 27-28, 2018 showed 38 percent of the Valencia rows are harvested.

All Grapefruit 4.00 Million Boxes

The forecast of all grapefruit production is lowered 650 thousand boxes to 4.00 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is lowered 100 thousand boxes to 750 thousand boxes. The red grapefruit forecast is lowered 550 thousand boxes to 3.25 million boxes.

Estimated utilization to April 1, with an allocation for non-certified use, of white grapefruit is 715 thousand boxes and of red grapefruit is 3.22 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted March 27-28, 2018, indicated 94 percent of the red grapefruit rows and 92 percent of the white grapefruit rows are harvested.

Tangerines and Tangelos 770 Thousand Boxes

The forecast for the tangerine and tangelo production is lowered 110 thousand boxes to 770 thousand boxes. If realized, this production level will be 52 percent less than last season’s production. This forecast number includes all certified tangerine and tangelo varieties…

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov