The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 378 million 90-pound boxes (MBx) – standard reference, equivalent to 15.42 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of 7.3 percent compared to previous Post estimate (408 million boxes or 16.5 MMT), primarily due to poor weather conditions that culminated in a more severe drought, as well as impacts from greening. Meanwhile, Post revised the orange weight forecast to 165 grams/5.82 ounces in MY 2023/24, 4.2 percent heavier than Post previous estimate of 158 grams due to the lower production and consequent more room for the fruits to grow. Post revised the total forecast related to the Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent production for MY 2023/24 at 1.06 MMT, a decrease of 8.62 percent vis-à-vis the Post estimate for MY 2022/23 (1.16 MMT), due to downward expected availability of fruit for processing provoked by drought, extremely high temperatures and increase of greening incidence …

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Persistent unfavorable weather conditions are expected to have a significant impact on citrus production in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23. Post forecasts lemon production to decline by 10 percent from MY 2021/22 to 1.65 million metric tons (MMT). Orange production is projected to fall by 13 percent to 623,000 MT, and tangerine production is expected to decrease by 18 percent to 285,000 MT.

Lemon exports are expected to decline to 200,000 MT in MY 2022/23, due to lower production. Orange exports are projected to decrease slightly to 55,000 MT, and tangerine exports are estimated to decrease to 30,000 MT, both due to smaller production …

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The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast at 410.6 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx) or 16.75 million metric tons (MMT), a slight decrease of 1.1 percent vis-à-vis the current season, with the resumption of the biennial crop cycle and consequently, a lower fruit load per tree. Meanwhile, orange weight at harvest is projected to increase 3.71 percent in relation previous crop, due to heavy rains throughout the citrus belt since October 2022. FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent production for MY 2022/23 is forecast at 1.125 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of nine percent from the estimated orange juice production for MY 2021/22, which was revised upward to 1.135 MMT. A larger share will supply the U.S. market to compensate Florida’s juice production, which was damaged significantly by hurricane Ian. …

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For marketing year (MY) 2021/22, Post revises its estimates for fresh lemon production to 1.90 million metric tons (MMT), up by 15 percent, due to favourable weather conditions. Fresh orange production is projected to increase to 920,000 metric tons (MT), and fresh tangerine production is expected to increase to 400,000 MT. Recent relatively favourable weather conditions for both sweet citrus fruits have allowed trees to recuperate from a stressful period characterised by drought followed by heavy rains. Lemon exports are projected to increase to 250,000 MT due to larger production, and sweet citrus exports are expected to increase slightly to 65,000 MT for tangerines and to 88,000 MT for oranges. Container availability shortages and higher fleet costs, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and global inflation, are impacting the activity of the Argentine citrus industry, increasing export costs by 100 percent.

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The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2021/22 is forecast at 414.4 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx) or 16.91 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 15 percent vis-à-vis the current season, supported by good weather conditions as of October 2021. Production costs are estimated at over R$ 33,000 per hectare (ha) or US$6,600/ha, up 27 percent compared to the previous crop, supported by high fertiliser, ag chemicals, and diesel prices. Total Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent exports for MY 2021/22 are forecast to be relatively stable at 1.04 million metric tons (MT), an increase of 30,000 MT vis-à-vis MY 2020/21 …

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South Africa is set for record citrus exports of 2.7 million tons in marketing year 2021/22 despite ongoing challenges. Favourable weather conditions, new areas under production, and higher demand in premium markets, such as the United States, are driving the growth in exports. Duty-free exports of citrus to the United States under the African Growth Opportunity Act reached a historic high of 100,234 MT in 2021. However, several challenges are facing the industry, including, soaring input costs, especially fuel and fertiliser, a major surge in shipping costs, ongoing operational challenges at the country’s ports, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on established trading patterns. As a result, profitability and sustainability of the industry are under threat and could limit future investments …

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Turkey’s citrus production for MY 2021/22 is forecasted up year-over-year in large part due to improved weather conditions compared to the previous year’s hot weather. While production is up, growers are seeing profit margins shrink as input costs, such as fuel and fertiliser, increase at a faster clip than farm gate prices. To cut losses, some grapefruit, orange and mandarin growers opted to leave their crops unharvested. With the exception of oranges, more than 50 percent of Turkey’s citrus production is expected to be exported in MY 2021/22. Looking ahead to MY 2022/23, citrus production will likely decline because of freezing weather that damaged blossoms in March of this year …

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The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2020/21 is forecast at 390.8 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx) or 15.94 million metric tons (mmt), an increase of seven percent relative to the current season. Although citrus trees are in the on-year of the production cycle, adverse weather notably affected the production potential for the upcoming season. Total Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent exports for MY 2020/21 are forecast relatively stable at 1.050 million metric tons (mt), an increase of 18,000 mt vis-à- vis MY 2019/20 …

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In MY 2019/20, EU citrus production is projected to lower 11 percent to 10.4 MMT. This production forecast is four percent higher than previous estimates. Unfavorable weather conditions in Spain, the EU’s main citrus producer, accounts for the projected drop in overall production. The decline in EU citrus production may encourage EU imports while EU citrus exports remain flat in response to higher domestic EU demand. Strategic export markets destinations for EU citrus continue to be Canada, the Middle East, and China. In MY2019/20, U.S. tariffs related to the World Trade Organization Case against EU aircraft subsidies will likely impact Spanish exports of clementines and lemons. During the Covid-19 pandemic, domestic demand for citrus held strong as consumers looked for foods to strengthen the immune system. As of the date of this report, EU citrus exports have not been directly impacted by the pandemic. …

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