In an increasingly complex global landscape shaped by inflation, rising tariffs, and political volatility, consumer behavior is undergoing a profound transformation. Cost-of-living pressures and trade policy disruptions are not only fueling economic anxiety but also prompting tangible shifts in how and why consumers shop. These forces are accelerating a move toward value-driven decision-making, increased scrutiny of product origin, and a growing preference for local alternatives, according to the Q1 2025 consumer survey* by GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
Concerns over trade-related inflation are widespread. More than half (56 %) of global consumers say they are “extremely” or “quite concerned” about the impact of trade wars and import tariffs on the prices of the products they buy. This concern is even more pronounced in countries directly affected by US trade policy, including Canada (66 %) and Mexico (62 %). Despite being at the center of trade friction, China stands out for its lower levels of concern, with 40% of respondents saying they are not worried about tariffs, highlighting regional differences in public perception and economic insulation.
Prerana Manral, Senior Consumer Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “These concerns are not abstract. They are driving tangible changes in consumer behavior across everyday categories such as food, drinks, toiletries, clothing, and homewares. According to the survey, 54 % of consumers are now checking or comparing prices online before making a purchase, and 47 % are switching to cheaper brand alternatives.
“Private labels are seeing a notable rise, with 33% of consumers saying they are buying more store-owned brands to manage costs. Additionally, 38 % of shoppers are turning to discount retailers or cheaper outlets, while nearly one-third (32 %) have stopped buying certain products altogether because they have become too expensive.”
Manral continues: “Trade policy is no longer just an economic lever; it’s a force that is reshaping everyday consumer choices. What we’re seeing is a structural shift in how people engage with brands and pricing. Consumers are now making sharper, more value-conscious decisions, and many are actively abandoning higher-priced products or stores.”
Beyond pricing responses, the survey highlights a growing ideological and environmental awareness in consumer preferences, particularly around product origin. On average, 68 % of the respondents globally say they prefer to buy local products: 67 % cite price, or 65 % say environmental friendliness, as the main reasons, while 71 % say they do so to support local brands.
Political sentiment is also playing an influential role, with 58 % of global consumers* reporting that recent political events have made them more attentive to the country of origin of products they purchase. This intersection of cost-consciousness and conscious consumerism is emerging as a powerful force in a politically volatile economy. While affordability remains the entry point, values such as environmental impact and national loyalty are increasingly determining purchasing behavior.
Manral concludes: “As consumers increasingly respond to rising tariffs and price pressures by shifting toward local products and value-driven alternatives, FMCG companies must recognize this as a long-term behavioral shift rather than a temporary adjustment. To remain competitive and relevant, brands should invest in localized sourcing and production, expand affordable and private-label offerings, and strengthen communication around value, sustainability, and origin.”
*GlobalData 2025 Q1 global consumer survey, 22,000 respondents across 42 countries.
A new era of conscious consumption is creating a shift toward more sustainable ingredients and eye-catching colour palettes influenced by the natural world, according to GNT.
GNT, which supplies plant-based EXBERRY® colours, has identified “Regeneration Rising” as a key trend in the food and drink sector. The company’s analysis explores the growing global appreciation for the natural world and desire to protect the planet. This mindset is now intensifying the focus on the origins of raw materials and sustainable production.
The Regeneration Rising trend is also inspiring new colour palettes as brands seek to convey instinctive messages about how their products are created. The use of visually impactful colours that can be found growing on land and in the sea helps manufacturers to showcase products’ eco-credentials and build emotional connections with consumers.
GNT has identified three new colour directions in line with the trend. “Elevated Earth” involves earthy shades from red-browns and warm oranges to textured purples and inky teals, elevating products with an organic but premium look and feel. “Nature Lab” is about pushing the boundaries of what is considered natural and features a kaleidoscopic spectrum of green, pink, red, yellow, orange, and blue. Finally, “Wholesome Nostalgia” features yellows, greens, blues, peaches, and pinks that range from velvet-like to milky, translucent, muted, and dreamlike.
Dieuwertje Raaijmakers, Marketing Communications Specialist at GNT Group, said: “Consumers of all ages are developing a much stronger interest in sustainability and rebuilding their relationships with the natural world. To appeal to these shoppers, food and beverage companies have to showcase their commitment to the planet. Colour can play an important role in telling that story, helping brands create appealing products that send out strong visual signals about how they’re produced.”
GNT has set out an ambition to lead the food colouring industry on sustainability. The company creates its EXBERRY® colours from fruits, vegetables, and plants and has set out a series of ambitious targets to optimise its environmental and social impacts at every stage of the value chain.
As observed for other agricultural products, the production costs of citrus farming have increased sharply in Brazil, due to higher inputs prices, majorly fertilisers. This scenario is concerning farmers in Brazil, considering that citrus production was low in the two previous seasons, which resulted in higher costs per unit.
Even if productivity and production increase in the 2022/23 season – compared to that in 2020/21 and 2021/22, because of the slightly more favourable weather –, higher inputs prices are expected to limit a possible reduction in the production cost per unit. Thus, profit margins may be lower than the expected, despite orange valuations in 2022/23 – so far, the ceiling orange price is at BRL 32.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered to processing plant (considering only large-sized processors).
Tight profitability may continue to constrain investments in both crops’ renewal and replating, mainly because shorter-cycle crops, such as soybean crops, are currently more attractive and bring better opportunities to farmers.
Last year, after five consecutive years of stability, the area allocated to citrus farming shrank in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro (citrus belt), according to data from Fundecitrus, which may happen again in 2022.
Lower profit margins may also hamper adequate crop management in the citrus belt. Lower investments in crops’ renewal and replanting added to difficulties related to crop management may reduce orange production even more in the mid-term. Low supply may underpin prices, since the stocks of orange juice at the processing plants in SP are not high, and production needs to be higher for inventories to be replenished.
Citrus market
The domestic demand for oranges has not been high enough to raise prices. According to Cepea collaborators, many purchasers are trying to pay lower prices, putting farmers off selling oranges in the domestic market.
Brazilian citrus farmers claim that, if prices drop lower than the current levels, sales in the in natura market will become unviable. Currently, juice processors are bidding prices up to BRL 32/box (harvested and delivered). Although the values paid by processors include the harvesting and freight, the quality standard required by this segment and the risks of default are lower, making sales to the industry more attractive.
In this scenario, if the demand from processors continues high and prices, attractive, sales to the in natura market are expected to decrease, at least during the Winter and the beginning of Spring, when supply increases, while demand decreases. Also, most oranges have not reached the ideal maturation stage yet, allowing farmers to wait and sell the oranges when the processing activities in the 2022/23 season begin, forecast to late May/early June.
