The combination of low orange supply and firm demand over the last weeks, due to high temperatures, has been keeping prices on the rise in both the in natura market and at the industry.

Orange prices have been hitting records in both segments – as for fruits to the industry, the current average is a real record, considering the Cepea series, which started in October 1994 (monthly prices were deflated by IGP-DI October). Even with an average crop, orange juice stocks at processing companies are low, resulting in a fruit supply that is lower than the demand.

In November, pear oranges are traded in the in natura market at BRL 58.90 per box, 45.9 % higher than in November last year (in real terms) and the highest of Cepea series, in nominal terms. In real terms, the current average is the highest since March 2019 and the fourth biggest considering the months of November.

Prices for pear orange and late varieties sent to the industry, in turn, have averaged BRL 49.04 per box in November, soaring 60.3 % compared to November/22, in real terms, and the highest of the series.

The supply in Brazil is expected to be lower than the demand at least until the end of the crop. The following season can still register a limited availability, considering that current OJ stocks may not recover at the end of the 2023/24 crop. In case the 2024/25 season continues on the average, stocks may present a new decrease. Therefore, if the crop is below-average, the situation can be critical.

The Brazilian exports of orange juice are on the rise in the current season (2022/23). According to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), between July/22 and Feb/23, Brazil exported 776.3 thousand tons of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent, 14 % more than that shipped in the same period of the previous season. Revenue totaled USD 1.5 billion, 34 % higher, in the same comparison.

The higher increase in the revenue than in the volume exported highlights the higher average price paid for the commodity exported by Brazil. Data from Secex show that the quotations for the national FCOJ Equivalent rose 22 % between the last and the current seasons, and for Not-From-Concentrate juice, 7 %.

Exports to the European Union, the number one destination for the Brazilian orange juice, have decreased 2 % this season, while revenue has increased 16 % because of the recent valuations.

To the United States, exports are on the rise. In the current season, 240 thousand tons of the product have been shipped to this destination, a staggering 82 % up from that last season. Revenue more than doubled (+ 110 %), totaling USD 478.7 million. With shipments to the EU being stable and the increase to the USA, the share of the Brazilian juice in the total imported by the USA rose from 19 % in 2021/22 to 31 % in 2022/23.

It is important to mention that America’s high demand for the Brazilian juice is linked to the fact that the 2022/23 orange season in Florida has been compromised by the high incidence of greening and natural disasters, such as hurricanes and frosts.