Prognosfruit’s 2022 European apple and pear crop forecast reveals that apple production is set to increase by 1 % compared to 2021, while the upcoming pear crop is estimated to increase by 20 % compared to last year’s record low crop of the decade and by 5 % compared to the 3-year average. On 4 August 2022, more than 200 international representatives from the apple and pear sector joined Prognosfruit 2022 in Belgrade, Serbia, the first in-person Prognosfruit event after two online editions, to discuss the 2022 production forecast for apples and pears.
The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) released the 2022/2023 European apple and pear crop estimate on the occasion of the 47th edition of the Prognosfruit, which took place on August 3-5 in Belgrade, Serbia, returning as an in-person event after two years of online editions. Philippe Binard stated: “The apple production in the EU27 and UK is estimated to increase by 1 % to reach 12.167.887 T compared to last year. This year’s crop is also forecasted to be 9 % above the average of 2019-2020- 2021”. The European crop continues its adaptation to the varieties and quality specifications demanded by consumers. Dominik Wozniak, President of WAPA, indicated: “The prospects for the upcoming season are positive, although the sector will have to be prepared to face a variety of challenges including significant rising costs impacting the competitiveness of the sector, intense weather conditions, logistical issues, inflation, and difficulty to secure seasonal workers, with the ultimate goal of increasing consumption thanks to the quality of the products of the season and reverse the recent negative trend”.
Philippe Binard added: ”The EU pear crop for 2022 is estimated to increase by 20 % compared to last year’s record low crop of the decade and by 5 % compared to the 3-year average, rising to 2.077.000 T, mainly due to Italy and France more than doubling their production compared to 2021 (reaching 473.690 T and 137.000 T respectively), although, in the case of the former, the crop remains below its full potential.”. WAPA will continue to monitor the developments of the Northern Hemisphere crop and will issue updates when available.
The 2022 Prognosfruit Conference gathered more than 200 apple and pear sector experts from 23 countries. The event, organised by WAPA and Serbia Does Apples, featured the forecast and market analysis for the European apple and pear market as well as an overview of the latest trends in processing, organic, and the cider market. Luc Vanoideek (COPA COGECA-VBT) commented: “ The Belgrade meeting was the ideal opportunity to learn more about the development in the EU neighbourhood, including Serbia, Moldova, Ukraine, Turkey, as well as the Central Asia and Caucasus region” He further explained: “The additional contributions from representatives of China, India, and the USA provided to the conference a global outreach with the full picture of the whole Northern Hemisphere crop forecast.”
Prognosfruit is the compass for the apple and pear sector. Philippe Binard concluded: “The strong attendance at this first in-person Prognosfruit Conference after two years of online meetings is a clear sign that the sector representatives also very much appreciate the sense of community and networking opportunities that Prognosfruit provides. We look forward to continuing this tradition next year in Trento, Italy from 2 to 4 August 2023”.
The Prognosfruit Conference is Europe’s leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, gathering growers from across Europe. After two successful online events in 2020 and 2021, Prognosfruit returns as an in-person event in Belgrade, Serbia, from the 3rd to the 5th of August 2022. Registrations are now open, and stakeholders and journalists are welcome to register via the Prognosfruit website. The complete programme of the 3-day event is now available.
Prognosfruit, the leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, will take place in Belgrade, Serbia, from the 3rd to the 5th of August 2022, returning as an in-person event after two successful online editions. Registrations for Prognosfruit 2022, organised by WAPA in cooperation with Serbia Does Apples, are now open on the Prognosfruit website.
Since 1976, Prognosfruit has released the annual apple and pear production forecast for the upcoming season. This year, the three-day event during which the report will be released will see representatives of the sector gather to discuss the Northern Hemisphere situation as well as global perspectives for apples and pears. The complete programme of Prognosfruit 2022 is available below and on the Prognosfruit website, along with the online registration form to attend the conference.
The 3-day event will be structured as follows:
On August 3rd, the Prognosfruit 2022 participants will enjoy a sightseeing tour of the city of Belgrade, followed
by the Welcome Reception, which will take place at Belgrade’s Royal Palace;
The Prognosfruit 2022 Conference will take place on August 4th at the Hyatt Regency Belgrade. In the morning session, the European apple and pear forecast for the upcoming season will be revealed and complemented by an analysis of the market situation in the USA and China and a panel discussion with the major EU producers. The afternoon session will focus on the global perspectives for apples and pears, with an analysis of rising costs and logistical hurdles and an analysis of the sector in the EU neighbourhood;
The Conference will be followed by a Gala Dinner at the Kalemegdanska terasa on the evening of August 4th;
The event will conclude on August 5th with a technical visit to the apple orchard of the company Atos Fructum,
on the southern slope of Fruška Gora.
All the information about Prognosfruit 2022 and the online registration form to attend the conference available on the Prognosfruit website.
Prognosfruit’s 2021 European apple and pear crop forecast revealed that while apple production is set to increase by 10 %, the upcoming pear crop is expected to decrease by 28 %. On 5 August 2021, more than 150 international representatives from the apple and pear sector joined the Prognosfruit 2021 Online Conference, the second virtual edition of the event in its 46 years, to discuss the 2021 production forecast for apples and pears.
The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) released the 2021/2022 European apple and pear crop estimate on the occasion of the 46th edition of the Prognosfruit. WAPA Secretary General Philippe Binard stated: “The apple production in the EU for the 21 top producing countries contributing to this report is estimated for the 2021/2022 season to be 11.735,000 T. Overall, this year’s crop is estimated to be 10 % higher than last year, but 1 % only up from the 3-year average. It is therefore perceived to be a season with a balanced outlook”.
Philippe Binard added ”While the EU apple crop is larger, the EU pear crop for 2021/2022 is estimated to decrease by 28 % compared to last year to 1.604.000 T and by 27 % compared to the three-year average. This is the smallest decade crop for pears” On the varieties, this translates into a decrease of Conference pear by 18% to 805.000 T. Abate is also impacted with a crop reduced to 66.000 T, down by 73 %”.
WAPA will continue to monitor the developments of the Northern Hemisphere crop and will issue updates when available.
Over the years, Prognosfruit has become the leading annual meeting point for the European apple and pear sector. Each year the conference gathers around 300 leaders from the apple and pear sector in a different European country in early August. Prognosfruit is an opportunity not to be missed to debate the latest sector developments and be informed on the annual apple and pear crop forecast.
For the first time since the initiation of Prognosfruit in 1976, the organizers of the 2020 edition have had to take the difficult decision to regretfully cancel this year’s conference. Prognosfruit was scheduled to take place later this year in Belgrade (Serbia) from 5-7 August 2020.
The global COVID-19 pandemic has prevented Prognosfruit from being organized this year under normal conditions. So far, there is no indication when the current travel restrictions within the European Union and on the external borders of the European Union will be lifted. Furthermore, at the time of the conference some quarantine rules might still be in place as well as other restrictions on transport and social distancing.
It has been agreed with Serbia Does Apples, the local organizer of conference planned conference in 2020 in Belgrade, that Prognosfruit 2021 will take place in Serbia.
In the meantime and regarding the 2020 forecast, WAPA will release the apple and pear forecast as usual. The modalities of disclosing the 2020 forecast will be announced in July.
The 2019 European apple and pear crop forecast estimates that most European countries are expecting a rather low apple and pear crop for the coming season. On 8 August 2019, close to 300 representatives of the international apple and pear sector met at the Prognosfruit Conference in Alden Biesen, Belgium. During the conference, the 2019 European apple and pear crop estimate was released. This year, the apple production in the EU is set at 10.5 million T as a result of climatic events and the alternation of last year’s bumper crop. This is a decrease of 20 % compared to last year’s record high crop and of 8 % compared to the average crop of the three previous years. The pear crop is predicted at 2 million T, a decrease of 14 % compared to 2018. Nevertheless, comparisons with previous years need to be handled with much caution, given last two years’ exceptional variation.
Apart from crop alternation after a bumper, this year’s crop estimation has been influenced by several factors, including in particular a mild winter, a cold and wet May, late frost, a sunny and warm June, heat wave and drought in July, abrupt changes in temperature, and low blossoming. However, these events were scattered, and their impact differs significantly between regions. Additionally, for pear, the overall low figure is mainly due to a decrease in estimation of Italian pears which caused the overall forecast to be the second lowest of the decade. The drop was mainly the result of low blossoming, influenced by the high crop, heat of last season and rain.
A general comment for apple is that the crop in the Eastern part of the EU has been affected by the cold snap in May, with losses of 44 % of last year’s record high in Poland. In most apple producing countries, however, there were moderate decreases or stabilisation of the crop. France, Spain and Portugal are recording an increase of their crop. In terms of quality, there might be issues with sunburn and sizing. For pear, there are estimations of moderate to more serious decreases in all major pear producing countries, except for a small increase in Spain. Overall, there are still overhanging stocks on the market, but the late start of the season by up to two weeks might contribute to a better balance of the market.
The crop estimation needs to be held against a complex market situation, given the ongoing consequences of an increasingly more challenging global trading environment. Therefore, efforts to boost consumption need to be continued. WAPA will continue to monitor the developments of the Northern Hemisphere crop and will issue updates when appropriate.