All Oranges 50.0 Million Boxes
The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 50.0 million boxes, down
4.00 million boxes from the October forecast. If realized, this forecast will be 27 percent less than last season’s production and the least since the 1945-1946 season of 49.0 million boxes. The forecast consists of 21.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 29.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2007-2008 through 2016-2017 seasons. For those previous 10 seasons, the November forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 7 percent, with 8 seasons above and 2 below, with differences ranging from 9 percent below to 19 percent above. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons unless noted.
Non-Valencia Oranges 21.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is lowered 2.00 million boxes to 21.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and is projected to be above the maximum until harvest. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is unchanged at 600 thousand boxes, and is 3 percent of the non-Valencia total. Current Navel size is above the maximum, and droppage is above the maximum.
Valencia Oranges 29.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is reduced 2.00 million boxes to 29.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest.
All Grapefruit 4.65 Million Boxes
The forecast of all grapefruit production is lowered 250 thousand boxes to 4.65 million boxes. If realized, this forecast will be 40 percent less than last season’s production and the least since the 1918-1919 season of 3.50 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is lowered 50 thousand boxes to 850 thousand. The red grapefruit forecast is lowered 200 thousand boxes and is now at 3.80 million boxes. Projected fruit size of white grapefruit at harvest is below average while projected droppage is above the maximum. Projected fruit size of red grapefruit at harvest is projected to be above average and projected droppage is projected to be above the maximum.
Tangerines and Tangelos 950 Thousand Boxes
The forecast for the tangerine and tangelos is reduced 50 thousand boxes to 950 thousand, 41 percent less than last season’s production. This forecast number includes all certified tangerine and tangelo varieties.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Rains were below the average for October in three of the four main citrus regions in São Paulo State; therefore, growers were very concerned with the development of the 2018/19 crop. Although it rained in early October, the soil was really dry and the volume was not enough to recover moisture for flower settlement. This scenario, added to high temperatures, favored fruitlet drops.
Fruitlets had already dropped more intensely in the non-irrigated groves from central and northern SP, where the weather is usually drier and warmer – even before it rained in early October.
Agents do not expect significant sprouts in the plants with flower buds, even with the return of rains. Others, in turn, believe new flowering events may occur if rains are enough, but not as significant as the main event (from late August to early September).
On the other hand, in southwestern SP, the rain volume until October 19 had surpassed the average volume expected for the month, according to Climatempo (weather forecast agency). The only concern, according to growers consulted by Cepea, was with sharp temperature oscillations, which may lead to a higher rate of fruitlet drops.
CROP 2017/18– Regarding the current crop (2017/18), high temperatures led oranges on trees to wilt again, making it difficult for fruits to remain on the trees in the rainy period. The losses early in the month were estimated at around 20 % in older groves and at around 15 % in younger groves, mainly in the plants affected by greening.
In this scenario, the quality of in natura oranges was lower than that demanded by the segment, justifying price rises. In October, pear orange quotes averaged 19.24 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 11 % up compared to that in September.
All Oranges 54.0 Million Boxes
The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 54.0 million boxes, 21 percent less than last season’s final production. The total includes 23.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 31.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The Navel orange forecast, at 600 thousand boxes, accounts for 3 percent of the non-Valencia total.
The estimated number of bearing trees for all oranges is 48.9 million. Trees planted in 2014 and earlier are considered bearing this season. Field work for the latest Commercial Citrus Inventory was completed in June 2017. Attrition rates were applied to the results to determine the number of bearing trees which are used to weight and expand objective count data in the forecast model.
The citrus growing region was drought-free at the start of the 2017-2018 citrus growing season. In January, the region started showing abnormally dry conditions. By February, bloom had begun and was full in some areas. Other areas held off and showed only light and scattered bloom. In March, the Southern citrus growing area was in moderate drought conditions, while the Northern area remained abnormally dry. During these times of dry weather, citrus groves required the use of irrigation systems. Temperatures were above average for the majority of the season. Precipitation returned for the summer months to keep all areas drought-free. In September, Hurricane Irma made landfall in Florida at Marco Island and went up through the Western side of the citrus belt. The hurricane left some areas flooded and extremely wet.
A 10 year regression has been used for comparison purposes. For those previous 10 seasons, average actual production is 124 million boxes. The initial forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 6 percent, with 8 seasons above and 2 below, with differences ranging from 2 percent below to 19 percent above.
The procedures used in this forecast are the same as used in past seasons. The methodology is described on page 5 of this report. All references to “average,” “minimum” and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom.
Non-Valencia Oranges 23.0 Million Boxes
The non-Valencia forecast of 23.0 million boxes is 30 percent lower than last season’s production. The estimated number of bearing trees (without Navels) is 19.6 million. The estimated fruit per tree for early-midseason oranges is 741, a decrease of 3 percent from last season. Projected fruit size is below average, requiring an estimated 289 pieces of fruit to fill a 90-pound box. At 48 percent, droppage is well above the maximum.
Based on fruit population, the prorated forecast shows a decrease of 4.21 million boxes in the Western area compared to last season. The combined other areas show a decrease of 5.79 million boxes.
The Navel forecast of 600 thousand boxes is 25 percent lower than last season’s production. If realized, this will be the lowest in a series dating back to 1979-1980 when separate Navel forecasts began. The estimated number of bearing trees is 913 thousand, down 2 percent from the previous season. The estimated fruit per tree is 252, an increase of 15 percent from last season. Projected fruit size
is slightly above average, requiring an estimated 139 pieces of fruit to fill a 90-pound box. Projected droppage is well above maximum at 49 percent.
Valencia Oranges 31.0 Million Boxes
The Valencia forecast of 31.0 million boxes is 13 percent lower than last season’s production. The estimated number of bearing trees is 28.4 million, down 2 percent from the previous season. The estimated fruit per tree is 510, an increase of 13 percent from last season. Projected fruit size is below average, requiring an estimated 237 pieces of fruit to fill a 90-pound box. Projected droppage is well above the maximum at 45 percent.
Based on fruit population, the prorated forecast shows a decrease of 3.20 million boxes in the Western area compared to last season. The combined other areas show a decrease of 1.55 million boxes.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The smaller volume of oranges allocated to processors in the 2016/17 season (due to one of the smallest crops in the citrus belt, with only 245.3 million boxes of 40.8 kilos) has affected not only orange juice exportations, but shipments of orange by-products as well. While in the 2015/16 season exportations of these products increased, shipments of all items from the crop that officially ended in June (July/16 to June/17) had the worst individual performance, mainly in terms of volume.
The revenue from by-products exportations in the 2016/17 season, however, was 390.08 million USD, 22 % up compared to the previous crop (Secex). Except for lemon and lime oil, prices of all the other by-products increased significantly in the season. These exportations include citrus pulp pellets, citrus terpenic, D-limonene, lemon, lime and orange essential oils and other citrus products.
As for the individual performance, only two by-products had higher shipments compared to the previous season: D-limonene and lemon essential oil. On the other hand, the volume of citrus pulp pellets exported decreased a staggering 68 %, totaling 68.6 thousand tons.
FCOJ – Exportations of frozen concentrate orange juice equivalent (FCOJ Equivalent) decreased 17 % compared to the previous crop. From July/16 to June/17, exportations of FCOJ Equivalent totaled 950.92 thousand tons, according to Secex. Revenue totaled 1.73 billion USD, 6 % down compared to the same period last crop. In Real, revenue totaled 5.57 billion BRL, 18 % down in the same comparison.
Brazilian exportations should increase next season, based on the partial recovery of the orange juice inventories.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – Demand for in natura oranges weakened in the second week of July, due to the mild temperatures in São Paulo State and the school vacations period. Thus, pear orange quotes averaged 16.30 BRL per 40.8-kilo box (on tree) between July 3 and 14, 7.1 % down compared to the same period in June.
Purchases from processors were limited as well. Receiving previously purchased fruits, processors from SP State did not trade much in the spot in the first fortnight of July, mainly due to maturation out of the ideal period for some fruits, mainly the mid-season ones. Thus, bidding prices continued between 16.00 BRL and 18.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at the processor, and between 18.00 BRL and 20.00 BRL per box for the mid-season fruits.
The 2016-2017 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is up 200,000 boxes from last month, and is now at 68.7 million boxes. The total comprises 33.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties), unchanged from last month, and 35.7 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up 200,000 boxes from last month.
The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production is unchanged at 7.80 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 1.50 million boxes are white and 6.30 million boxes are the red varieties. The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast remains at 1.62 million boxes.
The forecast includes 600,000 boxes of the early tangerines (Fallglo and Sunburst), 210,000 boxes of Royal tangerines, 530,000 thousand boxes of Honey tangerines, and 280,000 boxes of tangelos. The Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ) yields as reported by the Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC), Report No. 39, for the period ending July 1, 2017, at 42 °Brix are: all oranges at 1.416618 gallons per box, late (Valencia) portion at 1.536500 gallons, and non-Valencia oranges at 1.336596 gallons.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
