Orange crushing in the 2019/20 crop slowed down in the first fortnight of March at most of the processors in São Paulo State, due to the low supply in the Brazilian citrus belt. Currently, only one plant (in Araraquara) among the three large-sized processors is crushing oranges, primarily early pera rio and late varieties (natal and folha murcha). As usual, this plant should keep activities going until the crushing beginning for the 2020/21 crop.
Besides the lower orange supply, the quality of the fruits allocated to the industry is below the expected. Although yield is considered satisfactory this season, it has been affected by the frequent rains in the first two months of 2020.
BRAZILIAN SPOT MARKET – As both supply and quality decreased in the first fortnight of March, the prices paid for oranges dropped – the quotes paid for the fruits harvested and delivered at processing plants averaged 18.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box in the first half of the month, against 20.00 BRL/box in February.
At smaller-sized processors, remuneration ranged from 18 BRL to 24 BRL per box, according to yield and quality (the processors that make fresh juice were paying higher prices for the fruits).
As regards the oranges from the 2020/21 crop, sales have not started yet – opposite to the scenario in the two previous seasons, when, between October and November, agents from plants started to bid in order to close deals. Uncertainties about the output in the 2020/21 season may be hampering price fixing by processors – it is worth to mention that production estimates should only be released in May.
MARCH – The firmer weather in tahiti lime producing regions favored the harvesting of the variety in the first fortnight of March, which, added to the lower demand from both the international market and domestic processing plants (since a large-sized processors has ended activities), pressed down quotes in that period. Between March 2 and 13, tahiti lime prices averaged 9.86 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 7.9 % down compared to that in the first half of February.
As regards oranges, sales increased in that period, while supply decreased. The growers consulted by Cepea reported the harvesting end for late oranges, which should increase the share of early oranges in the total volume traded this month. In general, the harvesting pace is expected to be slow for these varieties, which may underpin orange quotes in the in natura market. In the first fortnight of March, pear orange prices averaged 34.86 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 6.7 % up compared to that in the same period of the previous month.
PONKAN TANGERINE – The harvesting of ponkan tangerine started in late February in the citrus producing regions from São Paulo State – despite the slow pace. Supply (mainly of higher quality ponkan tangerine) should only increase from the second fortnight of March, when the variety starts to reach the ideal maturation to be traded in the in natura market.
Some growers harvested ponkan tangerine before the ideal maturation for trading, aiming to take advantage of the attractive price levels and the offseason period for pear and late oranges from the 2019/20 crop.
Agents expect the volume of ponkan tangerine to be lower than that in the previous season, based on the dry weather between September and October – when fruits were developing – and on the lower vegetative vigor of plants, after a large crop. In general, production was low in the last years, with well-distributed and sparse crops.
This season, fruits quality should be lower than in 2019, due to the weather. Frequent and high rains in the first two months of 2020 favored the incidence of fungal diseases and rotting after the harvesting.
All Oranges 71.0 Million Boxes
The 2019-2020 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is lowered 1.00 million boxes to 71.0 million boxes. If realized, this will be down 1 percent from last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 30.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 41.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
As orange production is higher this season (2019/20), orange juice inventories should increase again until the end of the crop. According to a report from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released on February 18, ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) equivalent should total 412.83 thousand tons at the processing plants from São Paulo by June 30, 2020. This is the highest volume registered in five seasons (since 2014/15), considering CitrusBR’s historical series.
If this volume is confirmed, it would account for a 63 % increase compared to that in the 2018/19 season (253.18 thousand tons). This scenario was already expected, since orange production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) increased 34.6 % between the last season and the current one, according to Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund).
Of the total volume produced, still according to CitrusBR, 59.7 million boxes (40.8-kilo box) will be allocated to the in natura market and 325.17 million, to processing. The average crop yield is estimated at 270.1 boxes for a ton of FCOJ Equivalent, and the total juice production is forecast at 1.2 million tons.
In August/19, Cepea calculations had pointed to the possibility of inventories to increase at processors to levels similar to that estimated by CitrusBR, at 400 thousand tons.
REFLEXES IN 2020/21 – Although estimates point to a recovery in the volume stocked (the last four seasons closed with lower volumes), the effects on juice inventories in 2020/21 will depend on the amount to be produced in the coming season. However, since citrus growers expect next crop to be at least 30% smaller than the 2019/20, inventories should decrease to lower levels in June/21.
If production decreases, the prices paid to growers by the industry may rise, since demand should remain firm in this segment, despite the high inventories. In the in natura market, quotes may be favored by low supply, since processors should try to purchase the largest possible amount of fruits, to prevent inventories from decreasing to critical levels in June/2021.
MARKET IN FEBRUARY – Orange consumption decreased in the in natura market in the second fortnight of February, due to the rainy weather in some regions of São Paulo State and fruits’ lower quality. However, the low supply of higher quality pear oranges underpinned prices during the month. Between February 3 and 28, pear orange prices averaged 33.06 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 8.3 % up compared to that in January.
TAHITI LIME – The harvesting pace for tahiti lime was fast in February in the major producing regions from São Paulo State. Supply, which has been increasing since December, hit its peak last month, and according to agents consulted by Cepea, it may continue high until late March.
Besides that, rains influenced the in natura market too, hampering activities in the field and lowering fruits quality. Moreover, the sales pace was slow in February, due to the carnival season in Brazil.
Thus, in February, tahiti lime quotes averaged 10.24 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, the lowest for the month since 2017, in nominal terms, and 14.9 % down compared to that in January.
All oranges 72.0 million boxes
The 2019-2020 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is lowered 2.00 million boxes to 72.0 million boxes. If realized, this will be up slightly from last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 31.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 41.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Updated orange1 crop forecast totals 384.87 million boxes
The 2019/2020 orange crop forecast update for São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro/Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is 384.87 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. This figure corresponds to a decrease of 0.11 % in relation to the previous forecast update published in December 2019 and is 1.03 % smaller as compared to the first crop forecast announced in May 2019. Approximately 26.85 million boxes of the total crop should be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
Rainfall remained below normal for most of the citrus belt from May 2019 to January 2020, according to data from Somar Meteorologia. Accumulated rainfall in this period averaged 836 millimeters for all regions, which is 14% or 139 millimeters below the historical average of 975 millimeters (1981-2010). Rainfall shortage was more pronounced in the Central, South and Southwest sectors, including regions such as Limeira, where the accumulated amount was only 690 millimeters, that is, 33% or 341 millimeters below normal. …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1 Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2 Departament of Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp Campus Jaboticabal.
The heavy rains that hit São Paulo State in the first fortnight of February did not result in losses in orange groves, but reduced sales and hampered activities in the field. It is worth to mention that the harvesting pace is usually a lot slower in the first quarter of the year and that many of the fruits available in the market in the first half of the month had undesirable features, such as larger size, thick peel and were beginning to crystalize.
According to Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund), the harvesting of the current crop is ending in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro), having reached 96 % of the area, on average, for all varieties. In pera rio groves, 97 % of the oranges have been harvested, for valencia and folha murcha, 95 %, and for natal, 93 %.
Despite the lower quality in the current off-season period, precipitation should not reduce the output in the 2019/20 crop, but underpin prices in the in natura market – as supply is low, the demand for higher quality oranges should be firm. Between February 3 and 14, pear orange prices averaged 32.68 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 10.8 % up compared to that in the first half of January.
FUNDECITRUS – On February 11, Fundecitrus released their third estimates for the current season (2019/20). According to the report, the output should total 384.87 million 40.8-kilo box, 0.11 % down compared to that forecast in December/19 and 1.03 % lower than the first crop estimates, released in May/19.
According to the report, the rain volume between May/19 and Jan/20 was lower than the historical average in almost all producing regions (except in northern and northwestern SP), which limited growth, primarily for the varieties hamlin, westin, rubi, folha murch and natal. In general, the oranges have reached different sizes among the producing regions in the citrus belt, due to irregular rains.
TAHITI LIME – The rainy weather in São Paulo in the first fortnight of February hampered field activities and helped to control supply (it is worth to mention that, currently, tahiti lime is at crop peak). Still, on the average of the period, tahiti lime prices dropped 18.2 % compared to that in the same period of January, averaging 11.65 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, in the first half of February.
Fresh lemon production for MY 2019/2020 is forecast at 1.6 MMT, down 11 % from 2018/19, as trees cyclically lower production in response to a heavy blossom the prior marketing year. Orange and tangerine production is projected at 720,000 MT and 390,000 MT, down 10 % and 13 % respectively, due to unfavorable weather conditions which affected fruit blossom.
MY 2019/2020 lemon exports are forecast at 300,000 MT, up 25% from 2018/19 primarily due to lower global supplies, reduced domestic demand for processing and expanded export market opportunities. Sweet citrus exports are expected to decrease slightly to 70,000 MT for oranges and 35,000 MT for tangerines. Smaller production and relatively high production costs have reduced Argentina’s ability to compete in international markets for sweet citrus against other Southern Hemisphere exporters, mainly South Africa.
Domestic consumption of lemons for MY 2019/2020 is forecast to remain stable at 150,000 MT, and fresh orange and tangerine consumption is projected to fall to 300,000 MT and 220,000 MT, respectively, due to smaller production. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: https://bit.ly/39q64da
Despite the higher orange supply in the 2019/20 crop, quotes for all the varieties surveyed by Cepea in São Paulo State remained firm in January – similar to the levels observed in January last year, in nominal terms.
This scenario is linked to the lower volume of early and late oranges this season – the fruitlet losses and the lower flower settlement between December/18 and January/19 are now reflecting in a lower amount of early oranges. Prices could even be at higher levels, but the high number of lower quality fruits is constraining the average prices. This scenario helps to widen the gap between quotes.
Between January 2 and 31, the average price for pera rio oranges was 30.53 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, stable (+ 0.3 %) compared to that in Jan/19, but 8.2 % higher than that in December/19, in nominal terms. For the late varieties, natal orange quotes averaged 26.99 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, 2.4 % and 8.2 % up, respectively, compared to that in Jan/19 and Dec/19, also in nominal terms. As regards valencia oranges, the average price in January was 25.47 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, stable (- 0.5 %) compared to that in January/19, but 5.1 % higher than that in December/19.
SUPPLY – In general, the low supply of pear oranges has been reported by citrus growers since late 2019, but there still are remaining volumes of late varieties (mainly natal and folha murcha) available to be harvested in February. Therefore, the low supply of high quality fruits and the high temperatures this month, which usually favor citrus consumption in São Paulo, may underpin prices.
From March onwards, according to Cepea collaborators, the first oranges among the early varieties from the 2020/21 crop should be harvested, but only in the groves where activities have advanced. According to collaborators, most part should come from northern SP, since the weather is warmer in that area, which usually fastens fruits maturation. Still, as the harvest should not be large compared to the usual demand in that period, prices may be even higher in the in natura market.
TAHITI LIME – Growing supply and medium quality influenced tahiti lime quotes in January. From Jan. 2 to 30, quotes averaged 12.04 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 28.1 % down compared to that in the same period last year and 46.9 % lower than that in December/19.
As the harvesting stepped up last month, crushing increased. In late January, four plants were operating, purchasing the fruit between 12 BRL and 14 BRL per box, harvested and delivered to the plant.
EXPORTS – The Brazilian exports of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent increased in the first six months of the current season (2019/20). Between July and December 2019, Brazil shipped 665.85 thousand tons of the product to all dentitions, 22 % more than that from the same period of 2018, according to data from Secex. Revenue from these shipments, in turn, rose 10 % (in the same comparison), totaling 1.13 billion USD.
This result was already expected by agents from the sector, due to both the higher production in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in 19-20 and some bottling plants needs to replenish inventories. It is worth to mention that these increases also reflect the inventory flow from Brazilian terminals to terminals abroad, and not necessarily a sales increase in the same proportion.
To the European Union (the number one destination for the Brazilian juice), Brazil has exported 460.37 thousand tons of juice this season, 30 % up compared to the volume shipped between July and December 2018. To the United States, however, Brazilian shipments are decreasing, due to the crop recovery in Florida in the 18-19 season and perspectives for a positive scenario in the 19-20 season.
Higher orange supply in both Brazil and Florida in 19-20 and lower demand in the United States, in turn, are pressing down orange juice quotes this season.
Brazilian agents expect orange production in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro region to be low in the 2020/21 season. Although lower productivity constrains growers’ revenue, a smaller harvest tends to underpin the prices paid by the industry, despite higher ending stocks in June 2020.
In general, the biggest flowerings (observed in August) were considered positive by most of the growers consulted by Cepea. However, the dry and hot weather between September and October damaged plants and delayed their development during the fruit-fixing period. Besides, new flowerings (although occasional and smaller than that from August) were spotted in early December, favored by November rains.
Thus, trees development has been heterogeneous in the Brazilian citrus belt, even within a single region. However, it is worth to mention that the flower settlement period lasts until mid-January, which makes it difficult to measure the results for the coming season. Besides, the scenario is still uncertain and depends on the flowers that are now opening, the percentage of fixed fruitlet and fruits development in January.
INVENTORIES – Higher orange production in the current season (2019/20) has allowed crushing to be high at the processors from São Paulo State. In this scenario, perspectives for June 2020 indicate higher inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent, possibly surpassing 400 thousand tons, according to Cepea estimates – higher than the strategic level. Isolated, this scenario may press down quotes at processors in the coming season, but, with the low production estimates for 2020/21 in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro, quotes may continue firm.
Thus, in 2020/21, prices should be largely influenced by production – the agents consulted by Cepea believe the harvest will be smaller than 300 million boxes. If that is confirmed, this scenario may stabilize quotes in 2020, since it would keep the demand from processors high, and there would not be pressure on quotes in the in natura market.
Higher production estimates for the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2019/20 season were confirmed by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in a report released on Dec. 10. Although estimates were 0.8 % lower than that reported in September, data indicate that the current crop should be 34.7 % larger than the previous, totaling 385.31 million 40.8-kilo boxes of oranges.
According to Fundecitrus, new estimates were based on the lower rains in the citrus belt in 2019 (from May to November). With lower rains and high production, the size of the oranges produced in the citrus belt is shrinking – from 260 fruits per box, estimated by Fundecitrus in May, to 262 in December, 0.77 % down. As regards the drop rate, new estimates increased from 17.60 % to 17.63 %, on average, considering all citrus varieties. If the drop rate remains at this level until the end of the crop, it will be the highest in all times, based on data from Fundecitrus.
Still according to the report, the harvesting of pera rio oranges has already reached 85 %, against 50 % for valencia and folha murcha varieties. Natal orange harvesting, in turn, has totaled 45 % so far. As regards the total volume harvested, 74 % of the 2019/20 crop has been harvested, against 78 % in the same period last season.
This scenario indicates that, although estimates point to a smaller amount of late oranges this year – due to fruitlet losses in December/18 and lower flower settlement in mid-January/19 –, low supply, which is usual at the beginning of the year, may be postponed. The end of pear orange supply has been reported by Brazilian citrus farmers, but there still are some amounts of late oranges (mainly natal) available to be harvested in December and January.
Thus, based on the higher volume forecast for the current crop, agents from processors believe orange crushing will not be interrupted between a crop and the other – although the crushing pace may be slower than that in 2019/20. It is worth to mention that the crushing pace has been fast at processors since the beginning of activities this year, reaching 100 % of the capacity in almost all plants.
MARKET IN BRAZIL – Despite the nearness of the holiday season, when the demand for citrus fruits usually decreases, farmers reported firm demand in the first fortnight of December. According to agents, this scenario may be linked to the beginning of the month, when workers’ wages are paid.
As regards tahiti lime, quotes have been dropping, due to growing supply. According to Cepea collaborators, the supply of small-sized fruits is still high in the market of São Paulo State.
All Oranges 74.0 Million Boxes
The 2019-2020 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 74.0 million boxes, unchanged from the October forecast. If realized, this forecast will be 3 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of
32.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 42.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Brazilian exports of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent increased in October for the fourth consecutive month. This season (July to October/19), Brazil has shipped 390.5 thousand tons of the product to all destinations, 19 % more than that exported in the same period last year, according to data from Secex. Revenue, in turn, rose 8 %, in the same comparison, totaling 672.27 million USD.
This result was already expected by agents from the sector, who were based on the needs of bottling plants from the European Union (number one destination for the Brazilian juice) to replenish inventories – it is worth to mention that, last season, national shipments to the EU decreased. This season (2019/20), exports to the EU have already reached 284.3 thousand tons, 25 % up compared to the volume shipped between July and October 2018.
Shipments to the United States continue to decrease – between July and October/19, Brazilian exports to the USA decreased 6 %, totaling only 53.5 thousand tons, still reflecting the 2018/19 harvest offset in Florida as well as perspectives for a positive scenario in the American state in 2019/20.
Brazilian juice exports should continue on the rise in the coming months, due to the higher orange production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) and the needs of European bottling plants to replenish inventories. Shipments to the USA, in turn, will depend on the output from Florida (although greening has been controlled, it still damages local groves).
BRAZILIAN MARKET – The demand for oranges was firm in the in natura market in the first fortnight of November, according to Cepea collaborators, pushing up prices. As regards supply, the low availability of higher quality fruits and the reduction in the pear orange harvesting helped to underpin quotes. Between Nov. 1 and 14, pear orange quotes averaged 28.04 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 31.1 % up compared to that in the first half of October.
As regards tahiti lime, the volume available in the in natura market of SP is increasing – although most are small-sized fruits, which are traded at lower prices. According to agents consulted by Cepea, the gradual supply increase tends to press down quotes from now onwards. Between Nov. 1 and 14, tahiti lime prices averaged 91.37 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 14.3 % down compared to that in the first fortnight of October.
EXPORTS – Brazilian shipments of tahiti lime continue at record levels, both in terms of volume and revenue, favored by the higher supply between April and May. Between January and October/19, exports of lemon and lime totaled 93.3 thousand tons, 13.6 % up compared to that from the same period last year, according to Secex. Revenue, in turn, totaled 78.5 million USD, 3.2 % higher, in the same comparison. As supply increases in Brazil, which is expected between late November and early December, agents expect quotes to drop and shipments to increase, since lower prices favor the competitiveness of the Brazilian product in the international market.
The availability of citrus fruits should increase in the in natura market of São Paulo State in November. Besides the harvesting of late oranges, the supply of tahiti lime should also grow until late November, after the rains in late October (despite the small amount). The warmer weather in November, however, should boost the demand for these fruits, which may underpin quotes, at least in the first fortnight of the month.
As regards orange, the supply of late oranges should increase sharply – the harvesting of valencia oranges started in August (a month before the usual period) and for natal oranges, in mid-October. The wilted-leaf variety should also be available starting November, as it reaches the ideal maturation stage to be traded in the in natura market. According to growers consulted by Cepea, quality has been higher for these varieties than for pear oranges, which should favor sales in the in natura market.
Concerning mid-season varieties, the amount of high quality fruits is becoming lower and lower, due to the dry and hot weather in September and October (when many oranges wilt and crystallize). Thus, in October, pear orange prices averaged 22.99 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 17.8 % up compared to that from September.
Citrus growers from SP have also reported losses of mature fruits, due to recent rains, which came along with strong winds in some areas. According to recent reports from citrus growers consulted by Cepea, the groves in regions near Catanduva and Jales may have been the most damaged by winds.
TAHITI LIME – The availability of tahiti lime in early November should be even lower, but it may gradually increase in irrigated groves. According to agents, rains in late October, although occasional, may have favored tahiti lime growth, which should be harvested from the second fortnight of November.
The volume, however, may be smaller than that previously estimated, since in October, high price levels for this variety led some growers to harvest the fruits at a small-size and out of the ideal maturation stage (these fruits would only be ready in November). In October, tahiti lime prices averaged 83.64 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 33.3% up compared to that in September.
Higher supply should also favor tahiti lime exports, which have been low since July, due to the price rises for the variety in the Brazilian market and the low supply of fruits in the required standard for the international market. It is worth to mention that, despite the slower pace, the performance of Brazilian tahiti lime exports has been positive this year, with record volumes registered (until September).
In June 2019, the inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) equivalent at Brazilian processing plants closed at 253.18 thousand tons, 26.2 % smaller than that in the 2017/18 season, according to data from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters).
This volume is considered small in light of historic inventories – in recent years, inventories were only lower than that in 2010/11 and in 2016/17. The worse performance of Brazilian juice exports in 2018/19, therefore, prevented juice inventories at Brazilian processing plants from decreasing to critical levels.
CitrusBR should only release data about the ending stocks from 2019/20 and 2020/21 (June/20) next year. However, according to Cepea calculations, inventories should bounce back at the processing plants from São Paulo in 2020/21, due to the large 2019/20 crop in the citrus belt.
Considering initial inventories at 253.18 thousand tons in June/19, the demand in the in natura market, between 50 and 60 million orange boxes (the remaining production is allocated to crushing), and the increase in exports, to around 1.05 million tons, Cepea estimates inventories to be around 400 thousand tons by June/20, much higher than the current levels.
Although this scenario points to high inventories (the last four seasons ended with lower inventories), the effect on orange quotes in 2020/21 will depend on the volume to be produced next season. If production is average or high, the season tends to end with large volumes stocked again, which may constrain remuneration to growers as well as price rises for orange juice.
According to Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund), the annual orange production in the Brazilian citrus belt has been oscillating between high and low. However, it is still early to forecast the 2020/21 season, since flowering is still beginning in some groves from SP – but, considering the long drought, flowerings may be favored.
With the higher juice supply in 2019/20, shipments may bounce back from 2018/19. The needs of European distributors may favor exports, but higher demand from the United States will still depend on Florida’s production.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – The high price levels for tahiti lime hampered new deals in the in natura market from SP in August. According to agents, supply was low, since, until the end of the month, the fruits still on tree had not reached the ideal size and maturation stage to be harvested.
Drier weather limited fruits growth, which should underpin tahiti lime prices in September. Between August 1 and 31, quotes averaged 30.03 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 20.1 % up compared to that in July.
In the in natura market of pear oranges, the trading pace was slow and demand decreased in August. However, low supply underpinned prices. Thus, pear orange quotes averaged 18.26 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, in August, 1.1 % up compared to that in July.
Brazilian exports of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent decreased 19 % in the 2018/19 crop – compared to the previous season), as expected. Between July/18 and June/19, shipments totaled only 982.24 thousand tons, according to Secex. As for the revenue, it totaled 1.8 billion USD, 19 % down in the same comparison.
The volume exported from Brazil in the 18/19 season was the second smallest in the last 20 years of Secex historical series, only larger than that from 2016/17, when the Brazilian citrus belt harvested a small crop – which, in turn, resulted in the lowest inventory of all times, according to data from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters).
The bad performance in 2018/19 was linked to two factors: lower orange supply in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) and a decrease in the international demand, mainly from the United States. Lower exports, however, prevented juice inventories at Brazilian processing plants from decreasing to critical levels at the end of the season (June 30 2019).
According to a report from CitrusBR, in June/19, inventories at Brazilian processing plants closed at only 224.51 thousand tons, which is considered low compared to that in recent years – inventories in June/19 were only lower than in 2010/11 and in 2016/17.
Brazilian shipments to the United States decreased a steep 38 % compared to that last season, totaling only 196.4 thousand tons. Revenue, in turn, dropped 39 %, to 340.96 million USD. Besides lower consumption in America, this result is linked to expectations for a crop recovery in Florida in 2018/19. According to a report from the USDA released today, July 11th, Florida should harvest 71.6 million boxes of 40.8 kilos, 59 % more than in 2017/18.
To the European Union, the biggest importer of the Brazilian orange juice, shipments totaled 643.74 thousand tons, 11% down compared to that last season. Revenue, in turn, reached 1.19 billion USD, 9 % down in the same comparison.
BRAZILIAN MARKET IN JULY – The cold weather in São Paulo State reduced citrus consumption in the first fortnight of July. According to Cepea collaborators, despite the occasional frosts in some producing regions (mainly in southwestern SP), there were no losses at orchards. Between July 1 and 15, pear orange prices averaged 18.07 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, stable (-0.05 %) compared to that between June 1 and 15.
Concerning tahiti lime, besides lower supply (due to the harvesting end for the fruits produced in the first semester of 2019), rains pushed up quotes in the first half of July. Between July 1 and 15, tahiti lime quotes averaged 25.19 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, a staggering 84.5 % up compared to that in the same period of the previous month.
The 2018-2019 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is now 71.6 million boxes. The total is comprised of 30.4 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties), unchanged from the June forecast, and 41.2 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up 200,000 boxes from the June forecast. The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production is unchanged at 4.51 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 770,000 boxes are white and 3.74 million boxes are the red varieties. The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast remains at 990,000 boxes. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Major processing companies in São Paulo say that, in July, they are likely to increase the receiving of mid-season fruits from contracts of the 2019/20 season. According to players surveyed by Cepea, pear orange has been received in June, but in small volumes, because the quality was not good for juice production.
Besides, the volume of early varieties continued high in late June, which increased acquisitions of the industry – some companies reported that processing activities increased at the end of the month. As a result, the supply of these fruits may continue high, even with the availability of mid-season fruits increasing gradually.
As for trades in the spot market, only two of major processors were purchasing in late June, with values between 16.00 and 18.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered – the value may change during the season. For small processing companies, in turn, quotes reach up to 20.00 BRL per box, depending on the company and the quality.
CONTRACTS – As for mid and long term trades (two or more crops), players surveyed by Cepea say that the demand is high until December/18, when contracts were established between 20.00 and 22.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – Players expect that, in July, as processing companies are receiving oranges, the volume in the in natura market may reduce, preventing prices to decrease sharply. Agents say that the demand for pear orange increased in late June because the supply of early varieties reduced in the in natura market.
Concerning ponkan tangerine, the crop from São Paulo, which started in February in some areas of the state, is about to end. According to agents consulted by Cepea, only a few orchards still had fruits to be harvested at the end of the month.
The Brazilian exports of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent in the 2018/19 season are ending and the volume shipped to all destinations is still low – May was the ninth consecutive month of lower sales (this scenario has been observed since September/18).
This scenario, which was already expected by agents, is linked to the lower orange production in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) this season as well as lower demand from the international market, mainly the United States. The exports decrease, in turn, prevents orange inventories of Brazilian processing plants from decreasing to critical levels by the end of the season (June 30 2019).
This season (July/18 to May/19), Brazilian juice exports to all destinations have decreased 18 % compared to the same period in the 2017/18 season, totaling 918.46 thousand tons, according to Secex. Revenue, in turn, has dropped 17%, totaling 1.69 billion USD.
Exports to the European Union, the biggest purchaser of the Brazilian juice, totaled 592 thousand tons, 8 % down compared to that in the same period last year. Revenue, in turn, totaled 1.09 billion USD, 6 % down in the same comparison.
Shipments to the United States had the steepest decrease in the season, of 38 % compared to the previous crop, totaling 190.71 thousand tons of juice. This result is linked to the lower demand from the USA, due to the estimates for the recovery of the 2018/19 crop from Florida as well as lower consumption. Revenue, in turn, dropped 39 % in the same comparison, totaling 331.55 million USD.
ESTIMATES – According to a report released by the USDA on June 11, the orange crop from Florida should increase by 58.4 % compared to the previous, totaling 71.4 million boxes (1.3 % down compared to that forecast in May).
Despite the decrease in the consumption of orange juice in the United States, the demand from the country for the Brazilian orange juice may not decrease too sharply in the coming seasons, due to the effects of greening on American crops in the long term.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – The trading pace was slow in the Brazilian citrus market in the first fortnight of June. However, the volume of oranges in the ideal stage for the in natura market was gradually decreasing in São Paulo, due to the increase in the deliveries to processing plants. Thus, between June 3 and 14, pear orange quotes averaged 18.08 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 21.5 % down compared to that in the first half of May.
As for tahiti lime, despite the large volume available for harvesting, the current weather allows the fruits to stay on tree for longer. Thus, growers reduced the pace of activities in the field, aiming to prevent prices from dropping too much. In the first half of June, tahiti lime quotes averaged 13.65 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, a slight 20.6 % down compared to that in the first fortnight of May.
EXPORTS – Lemon and lime shipments were positive in May, surpassing, for the first time in the year, the amount exported in 2018. Last month, exports hit a record (revenue and volume) in all Secex series, which started in 1997.
According to Brazilian exporters consulted by Cepea, as the weather delayed the maturation of tahiti lime crops in SP, shipments decreased from March to April, increasing again in May. According to data from Secex, Brazil exported 18.94 thousand tons of lemon and lime in May, almost two-fold the amount shipped in May 2018 and 57% more than that exported in April/19.
Orange prices were weakened in the Brazilian market in May, due to both the colder weather and high supply at the orchards from SP.
As crushing increases in Brazil, citrus farmers tend to reduce orange supply to the in natura market, aiming to prioritize the trades already closed with processing plants – which may prevent prices from dropping more sharply – many farmers allocated large volumes of early oranges to the in natura segment in May, waiting for crushing to start at the industry.
Between May 2 and 31, pear orange quotes averaged 21.17 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 33.4 % down compared to that between April 1 and 30.
Concerning tahiti lime, besides the higher supply, quotes were pressed down by the low demand, from both the Brazilian and the international markets. In May, tahiti lime quotes averaged 15.21 BRL per 27-kilo box, on tree, 36.8 % down compared to that in April.
The larger crop estimated by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) for the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in 2019/20, at 388.89 million boxes of 40.8 kilos (36 % larger than that from the 2018/19 season), should offset the inventories at processing plants from São Paulo in June 2020, according to Cepea estimates. However, this is not a high supply scenario, since the volume produced in 2018/19 was small and processing plants need to purchase raw material in order to replenish the low inventories forecast for June 2019.
According to CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) estimates from Feb/19, the 2018/19 season should end, in June/19, with the smallest output since June/11, smaller than the strategic amount (of 250 thousand tons). Thus, if these estimates are confirmed, industrial demand may be firm in 2019/20, offsetting higher orange supply – this context has practically been confirmed, considering the anticipated trades closed in late 2018 at firm prices.
According to Cepea’s first estimates, by the end of the 2019/20 season (in June/20), juice inventories may surpass 300 thousand tons (Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice – FCOJ – Equivalent). For this calculation, Cepea considered the initial inventories forecast by CitrusBR (200.6 thousand tons), 300 million boxes crushed (88 million boxes allocated to the in natura market), average yield at 260 boxes for each ton of orange juice and sales at 1.05 million tons.
Thus, although 300 thousand tons are higher than the strategic level stablished, it is important to consider that production has oscillated in the citrus belt from year to year, with periods of larger volumes followed by years of low production. In this scenario, taking into consideration that the 2020/21 crop may be smaller, inventories should be kept stable at processing plants, aiming to avoid major decreases in the global supply.
PRICES PAID TO CITRUS GROWERS IN 2019/20 – Despite the larger volume forecast for the citrus belt, growers’ revenue should be positive in 2019/20, due to high productivity (which may reduce the cost per unit). Besides, much of the output has been purchased at the same price levels from 2018/19, between 20 and 22 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at processing plants (counting or not on a participation additional in the juice selling price in the international market).
One of the large-sized processing plants from São Paulo State started purchasing oranges in the spot market in the first fortnight of May – early varieties from the 2019/20 crop as well as fruits out of the ideal period from the 2018/19 season. Two plants of this large-sized processing plant were crushing oranges in that period, one in Araraquara and the other in Colina.
Bidding prices were around 18 BRL per box, harvested and delivered at the processing plant, lower than that observed until December/18 for mid and long-term contracts, which ranged from 20 to 22 BRL per box – with the possibility of a participation additional in the international juice market. At smaller-sized processing plants, in turn, quotes ranged from 14 to 20 BRL per box in the spot market – depending on both the processing plant and the quality desired.
For mid and long-term contracts, the purchases of oranges from the new crop have been occasional this year, with no fixed prices and deals closed between some of the large-sized processors only.
The citrus farmers consulted by Cepea are concerned about the effects of the higher production expected for the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in 2019/20 on orange prices.
Higher supply estimates are based on the good development of orange orchards in all Brazilian regions, favorable weather in the second semester of 2018 (with mild heat and well-distributed rains) and the resume of investments. Still, greening should constrain yield at many orchards in SP.
Although higher productivity in 2019/20 may lower the unit cost of production, the new bidding prices are considered low compared to expenses, which may constrain the revenue paid to the growers who will depend on sales in the spot market. Concerning fruit volume, most oranges have already been traded, through contracts – either previously closed or closed in late 2018. However, a high number of farmers, probably smaller-sized ones, may have been waiting for prices to be fixed this year in order to sell their fruits.
THE MARKET IN MAY – Oranges quotes dropped in the first fortnight of May, pressed down by both higher supply and low purchases from processing plants. Between May 2 and 15, pear orange quotes averaged 23.03 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 34.5 % down compared to that in the first fortnight of April.
TAHITI LIME – The demand for tahiti lime was low in the first half of May, while supply continued high in the field of São Paulo State – due to the delay in fruit maturation in the first months of 2019. Between May 2 and 15, tahiti lime was traded for 17.20 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 26.8 % down compared to that in the first fortnight of April.
EXPORTS – In the international market, the demand for tahiti lime was firm, due to the higher quality of the fruits available. However, this year, the Brazilian exports of tahiti lime have been lower than in 2018. In April/19, shipments totaled 10.6 thousand tons, according to Secex, 9 % down compared to that in April/18. Between January and April 2019, exports were 20 % lower than in the same period last year.
All Oranges 72.4 Million Boxes
The 2018-2019 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 72.4 million boxes, down 5 percent from the April forecast. The total includes of 30.4 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 42.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges.
Non-Valencia Oranges 30.4 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is finalized at 30.4 million boxes. Harvest is complete for the included varieties. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is 750,000 boxes, 2 percent of the non-Valencia total.
Valencia Oranges 42.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is lowered to 42.0 million boxes, down 9 percent from the April forecast. Weekly certifications in April averaged 3.46 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted April 29-30, 2019 showed 62 percent of the Valencia rows are harvested. Estimated utilization to May 1, including an allocation for other use, is 26.4 million boxes. Processors were surveyed regarding fruit processed through April 30th and the estimated quantity remaining to be processed to the end of the season. Analysis of the Row Count Survey, estimated utilization to the first of the month, and the results of the processors report support reducing the Valencia orange forecast. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
As the harvesting of the 2019/20 orange crop steps up in the orchards of São Paulo, citrus prices dropped in the in natura market in April – this scenario should still be observed in May. Besides the higher supply of all varieties, the share of fruits that have not reached the ideal maturation stage for the in natura sector yet increased pressure on quotes.
Concerning early oranges (rubi, hamlin and westin, for instance), trades have been closed since March. However, only in late April these fruits reached a maturation stage closer to that demanded by the in natura market. Thus, the average price for hamlin oranges last month was 23.78 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 14 % down compared to that in March.
As for pear oranges, the first fruits from the 2019/20 crop that were harvested had lower quality for the in natura sector, which pressed quotes in April. Thus, the price average last month, at 31.80 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, was 24.7 % lower than that from March. According to Cepea collaborators, the harvesting anticipation was an attempt of taking advantage of the high price levels – as growers are aware of the estimates indicating that the 2019/20 crop should be larger than the 2018/19, they fear that the prices paid for the fruits may drop sharply in the coming months.
For May, oranges quotes are expected to keep dropping, at least in the first fortnight. Besides the forecast for higher quality and supply in São Paulo, the crushing pace at processing plants should continue slow in the first days of the month. This scenario leads the early oranges that would be allocated for crushing to be sold in the in natura market.
2019/20 CRUSHING – The growers from São Paulo believe that the orange production in the 2019/20 season may be up to 40 % higher than that from 2018/19, based on orchards higher productivity. Higher supply in the new season, however, should allow the opening of new plants of the large-sized processing plants from SP this month. Higher crushing, however, is forecast only for June, when most fruits should reached the maturation stage desired by the sector.
Currently, only two plants of the large-sized processing plants are operating, in Araraquara and Matão. However, while one of them is still receiving fruits in the spot market, remaining from 2018/19, at 18 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at processing plants, the other is only receiving the oranges previously purchased, at more advanced maturation stages. Concerning the prices for the next season, remuneration in the spot market has not been defined yet.
Florida Orange and Grapefruit production both decreased by 500,000 boxes in the April U.S. Department of Agriculture crop forecast.
The report projects Florida Orange production for the 2018-19 season at 76.5 million boxes after a slight decline in Non-Valencia orange production. Florida Grapefruit production is now estimated at 4.9 million boxes.
“We’re an industry catching glimpses of recovery, but this estimate certainly points out that we are not there yet,” said Shannon Shepp, executive director of the Florida Department of Citrus. “It’s still a great year, but we are anxious for better.”
The numbers remain an increase from the previous season, devastated by Hurricane Irma, when production dropped to 45.05 million boxes of Florida Oranges and 3.88 million boxes of Florida Grapefruit.
Final orange1crop forecast totals285.98 million boxes
The 2018-2019 final orange crop forecast for São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 10, 2019 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is of 285.98 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, which is 28.2 % smaller in comparison to the previous crop (2017-2018) of 398.35 million boxes, and 11.6 % below the crop average in the last ten years3. The survey’s data show that final production was 0.8 % smaller than the initial projection carried out in May 2018, of 288.29 million boxes. Final crop total includes:
- 50.70 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties;
- 14.66 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple varieties;
- 79.12million boxes of the Pera Rio variety;
- 107.91 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties;
- 33.59million boxes of the Natal variety.
Approximately 16.02 million boxes of the finalcrop were produced in West Minas Gerais.
This crop season, adverse weather conditions in the citrus belt, with the exception of the Southwest region, resulted in a lower yield in groves. Irregular climate in the crop season set in back in 2017 with delayed spring rains, which caused orange trees to bloom late. High temperatures after flowering hindered fruit set, ultimately reducing the number of oranges per tree.
During fruit development and harvesting from May 2018 to March 2019, the accumulated rainfall in the citrus belt was 1,295 millimeters, which is 3 % below historical average (1981-2010), according to data from Somar Meteorologia.The months of May 2018 to July 2018 were drier than expected, with rainfall well below average. With decreased rainfall, fruit size did not reach the average 256 fruits per box (159 grams per fruit) projected in May 2018. Threefruits above projection were necessary to fill a 40.8 kg box. Therefore, the final average size for all varieties was 259 fruits per box (158 grams per fruit). The deviation between final average size (April 2019) and projected size (May 2018) was small, although deviation for each variety was more significant due to irregular rainfall distribution and fruit harvesting time. …
Please download the full update.
- 1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
- 2Department of Math and ScienceatFCAV/Unesp, Jaboticabal Campus.
- 3Average production for the last decade is of 323.34 million boxes. Data for crops 2008/2009 to 2014/2015 supplied by orange juice companies associated to Fundecitrus –Citrosuco, Cutrale and Louis Dreyfus, which, individually, have estimated their crop for the citrus planted area since 1988, through objective methodology. Data for the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 crops supplied by Fundecitrus.
The harvesting of the oranges out of the ideal period from the 2018/19 crop was ending in São Paulo State in March, while the availability of the first early oranges from the new season (2019/20) was increasing, helping to supply the market.
Although still low, the availability of the first oranges from the 19/20 crop in the market limited the upward trend of pear orange quotes, observed in the first two months of the year. In March, pear orange quotes averaged 42.23 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, 3.8 % up compared to that in February.
However, most of the early oranges from 2019/20 had not reached the ideal maturation stage demanded in the in natura market, which limited new deals. Concerning the pear and late oranges remaining from the 2018/19 season, only a few growers still had available amounts to sell in the in natura market – and, in general, lower quality also hampered trades.
The low supply scenario in the offseason period resulted from the lower production (almost 30 %) in the citrus belt in 2018/19 – estimated by Fundecitrus at only 284.88 million boxes of 40.8 kilos, according to the report released in February. Thus, in March, pear orange quotes increased sharply compared to the same period last year (in nominal terms): a staggering 46.3 %.
For April (mainly the second fortnight), the agents consulted by Cepea expect the supply of all varieties from the 2019/20 to increase, based on the possible favorable weather to the development of the fruits that are still on tree. Besides, it is worth to remember that crushing is currently at a slow pace at the processing plants from SP, which should allocate all the fruits available to the in natura market in April.
TAHITI LIME – As for tahiti lime, international demand helped to lower supply in the Brazilian market in March. Thus, quotes averaged 16.87 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, last month, 11.7 % up compared to that in February.
Demand from processing plants was low and the availability of fruits from the second blossoming was gradually increasing, which may press down quotes in April, mainly in the second fortnight – if the weather favors fruits growth.
The first oranges from the 2019/20 season started to arrive at the market of São Paulo State in the first fortnight of March. Despite the small volumes harvested, trades started in the same month as production did last year. Thus, Brazilian citrus growers believe the output of early oranges will be able to supply the Brazilian in natura market.
Considering the favorable weather during the development of the flowers of these varieties (second semester of 2018), the citrus growers consulted by Cepea have reported a satisfactory flower settlement –, resulting in a positive volume harvested in all producing regions this new season. For now, supply has been controlled, due to the delay in fruits growth, which, in turn, reflects the lack of rains in January. In this scenario, most early oranges have not reached the ideal maturation stage for the in natura segment yet.
According to growers, among the fruits supplied in the first fortnight of March, the main varieties were rubi, hamlin and lima sorocaba – traded at 30 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on average, on tree. The remaining varieties, such as westin and baía, may arrive at the market starting the second half of the month, as they reach the ideal stage.
However, supply should not be large enough to lead too many processors to start activities. Thus, until mid-April, the main destination of these fruits should be the in natura market – mainly to offset the low supply of pear oranges in the offseason period.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – The Carnival period in Brazil (March 2 to 6) weakened the demand for oranges in early March. Supply, in turn, was limited by the rains in São Paulo, which lowered fruits quality, mainly for late oranges. The growers consulted by Cepea reported the harvesting end for pear and late oranges.
Thus, between March 1 and 15, pear orange quotes averaged 43.32 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 15.1% up compared to that in the first fortnight of February.
Data released in late February reinforced perspectives that the inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent should decrease to critical levels at the end of the current season (2018/19). Although estimates were revised up (by 36.7 %) compared to the first report, released in August/18, the volume forecast is still one of the lowest in the recent citrus activity (the second lowest since 2010/2011).
According to the report, released by CitrusBR on Feb. 26, ending stocks of FCOJ Equivalent at processors from São Paulo State (on June 30 2019) should total only 200.56 thousand tons. If confirmed, this volume would account for a 41.5 % reduction compared to that in 2017/18 (at 342.96 thousand tons). Thus, even if higher production estimates for 2019/20 are confirmed in the citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro), low juice supply may again boost the orange prices paid to Brazilian citrus farmers next year.
This scenario, in turn, reflects both the lower production in the current season (2018/19), which is almost 29 % smaller than the previous one, according to Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund), and the ending stocks in June/18 (related to the 2017/18 crop), which, although positive, were not considered too high. Besides, yield has decreased at processors this crop, due to the weather, demanding larger amounts of orange for juice production.
The increase in the volume estimated back in August/18 compared to that from February/19 may be linked to the reduction in the Brazilian juice exports, due to both lower demand from the main importing countries and processors strategy of keeping larger volumes stocked at the end of the 2018/19 season. Still, ending stocks in the new season will be lower than the strategic level established, at 300 thousand tons, reinforcing the predictions for firm prices paid to Brazilian citrus farmers – for both those who sell oranges to the industry and the ones who sell to the in natura market.
In fact, the first bids from large-sized processors for the oranges from the 2019/20 season started earlier again (in October/18). Bidding prices were around 22 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at processors, to which may still be added a participation additional to the juice selling price in the international market. In 2018/19, the first bidding prices were up to 20 BRL per box. Trades, however, have already been reduced or ended.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – The availability of high quality oranges was low in SP State in February, pushing up quotes of all the varieties surveyed by Cepea. Between Feb. 1 and 28, pear orange quotes averaged 40.66 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 33.6 % up compared to that in January (2 – 31).
All Oranges 77.0 Million Boxes
The 2018-2019 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 77.0 million boxes, unchanged from the February forecast. If realized, this will be 71 percent more than last season’s hurricane affected production. The forecast consists of 31.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (includes Navel varieties) and 46.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2008-2009 through 2016-2017 seasons. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to those 9 seasons unless noted. The hurricane affected 2017-2018 season is excluded from the regressions.
Non-Valencia Oranges 31.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is lowered by 1.00 million boxes to 31.0 million. The Row Count survey conducted February 25-26, 2019, showed 97 percent of the early-midseason rows and 84 percent of the Navels rows are harvested. Estimated utilization for non-Valencia oranges to March 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 30.1 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is reduced to 750 thousand boxes.
Valencia Oranges 46.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is increased by 1.00 million boxes to 46.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below the minimum and is projected to be below the minimum at harvest, requiring 268 pieces to fill a 90 pound box. Droppage is now projected to be average at harvest. Harvest of Valencia oranges has begun. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The average prices of all orange varieties (in natura) surveyed by Cepea in São Paulo State were considered satisfactory in January/19 compared to January and December of 2018. This scenario was linked to the lower orange supply in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in 2018/19. Thus, it seems the prices paid to the citrus farmers from SP will continue at high levels in February, mainly for the higher quality fruits, since the availability of early oranges should only grow from April onwards, when the first fruits of the 2019/20 can be harvested.
In the first quarter of 2019, harvesting should be limited to both the fruits that are out of the ideal period and the remaining of the late oranges. Some farmers have even ended activities related to the current crop (2018/19). Besides, the high temperatures usually observed in February may boost the consumption of citrus fruits in SP, reducing supply even more.
According to the citrus growers consulted by Cepea, although perspectives regarding the volume to be produced are positive, the weather is still crucial for a good crop development – it needs to rain significantly in the citrus-producing regions this month so that fruits growth and new blossoming are favored.
PRICES – In January/19 the average price of the pera rio orange closed at 30.42 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 52 % higher than in Jan/18 and 12 % higher than in Dec/18, respectively, in nominal terms. For natal oranges, the price average was at 26.34 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, 45.6 % and 8.6 % higher in the same comparison.
TAHITI LIME – For tahiti lime, on the other hand, the crop peak in São Paulo continued to press down quotes in January. However, farmers have reported problems caused by the high temperatures: some fruits were becoming yellowish and dropping down from trees, which may lower supply and push up the quotes of the higher quality fruits.
In January, the average price for tahiti lime was at 16.76 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 18.2 % down compared to that in the same period last year and stable (-0.5 %) compared to the average price in December/18.
The prices paid to the orange growers from São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro region in the 2019/20 season should be positive, despite the larger production, since inventories are forecast to, again, decrease to critical levels at the processors from SP State (because of the lower production in 2018/19), underpinning the demand for the fruit.
According to estimates from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released in August/18, the ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent forecast to June 30 2019, at 146.7 thousand tons, would only be enough for a two-month exporting period. Therefore, this scenario could underpin orange prices in the Brazilian market in 2019, despite the high production in the 2019/20 season – although positive, the ending stocks in June/18 (related to the 2017/18 crop) were not too large.
Indeed, the first bids from large-sized processors for the oranges from the 2019/20 crop started early again (in October/18). Bidding prices were around 22 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at processors (with the possibility of a bonus added to the orange selling price in the international market). In the 2018/29 crop, the first bids were around 20 BRL per box.
Although cautious at first, citrus growers accepted to trade in mid-November, fearing that bidding prices could drop in the following months. Early purchases have been a strategy of large-sized processors since 2016 (when they started closing deals in October, although the 2017/18 crop was one of the largest in all times).
PRODUCTION – Citrus growers believe that the 2019/20 crop will be positive, based on the weather, which favored plants development during blossoming and fruitlet settlement. The main blossoming, which occurred between August and September in most orchards, were large.
In mid-December, the wide temperature range led part of the fruitlets to drop in some regions, mainly in late orange orchards, which are more sensitive to the weather. However, citrus farmers believe these losses should not be significant to the next season results. Still, some growers do not expect a super crop and believe the volume harvested will only recover in 2019/20; others forecast a 40% increase compared to 2018/19.
TAHITI LIME – The tahiti lime volume forecast to be harvested during the crop peak in São Paulo State, in the first quarter of 2019, is also positive. According to Brazilian agents, production may be higher than that from 2018, since the rains in the second semester last year were more frequent and well distributed.
Despite the higher supply, the demand from processors may help to underpin the prices paid to growers, controlling availability in the in natura segment. The good exports performance should also help to underpin tahiti lime quotes, even during the crop peak – shipments may continue at a fast pace, due to the firm demand for the fruit, mainly from Europe, where consumption has been increasing.
The production decrease in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in 2018/19 was confirmed by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in a report released on December 10. Despite the increase compared to that estimated in September, data indicate that the current crop should be 30.8 % smaller than the previous, totaling only 275.7 million 40.8-boxes of oranges.
In this scenario, orange juice inventories at processors are predicted to decrease to critical levels again by June 2019, which may ensure a balanced supply for the following year, even if orange production increases in 2019/20 – as expected by agents. According to CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters), juice inventories are forecast at 146.7 thousand tons, only enough for two months exports, at the most.
According to Fundecitrus, estimates increased because of the higher moisture in the citrus belt, which allowed the fruits to grow, mainly pear and late oranges.
However, in the first semester of 2018, the lack of rains hampered oranges growth and weakened plants vigor, and the fruits were vulnerable to drops and diseases. Thus, the drop rate this year (until November) is already higher than Fundecitrus expected.
In the field, pear orange harvesting has already reached 83% of the total volume expected, while the harvesting of valência and natal oranges has reached 66 %. Considering all varieties, 78 % of the total production has been harvested, similar to that from the same period last year (75 %). In light of that, agents expect the 2018/19 harvesting to end earlier, which may push up orange quotes in early 2019, when supply is usually low.
Despite the smaller volume forecast for the coming months, agents from processors believe crushing should not be interrupted between the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019 (when at least one plant of each processor should be operating). With the slower fruits growth in the first semester, crushing increased in mid-August, due to the ratio out of the standard desired for pear oranges.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – Orange consumption increased in early December, boosted by the payment of workers’ wages and the warmer weather in São Paulo State. However, rains accelerated fruits growth, which led farmers to fasten the harvesting pace in order to avoid losses. In that scenario, supply increased and pressed down quotes.
Besides, the higher availability of stone fruits, which is common for this time of the year, hampered the demand for oranges in the Brazilian market in the first fortnight of December, helping to lower prices.
All Oranges 77.0 Million Boxes
The 2018-2019 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 77.0 million boxes, unchanged from the November forecast. If realized, this forecast will be 71 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 32.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 45.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2008-2009 through 2016-2017 seasons. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to those 9 seasons unless noted. The hurricane affected 2017-2018 season is excluded from the regressions.
Non-Valencia Oranges 32.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is unchanged at 32.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below the minimum and projected to be below the minimum at harvest. Current droppage is above average and is projected to be above average until harvest. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is unchanged at 800 thousand boxes, and is 3 percent of the non-Valencia total. Final Navel size is below average and droppage is close to the maximum.
Valencia Oranges 45.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is unchanged at 45.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below the minimum and is projected to be below the minimum at harvest. Current droppage is above average and projected to be above average at harvest.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The supply of larger-sized tahiti lime increased in São Paulo State in November, due to rains. And as larger-sized fruits arrived at the market, the availability of small-sized tahiti lime decreased – until mid-November, the supply of small-sized fruits was high, since farmers were interested in trading them at high price levels.
In that scenario, quotes were 47.7 % lower than in October, averaging 39.57 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, last month. As for liquidity, sales decreased in the Brazilian market too.
PERSPECTIVES – At processors, crushing is forecast to step up only in mid-January – prices have not been estimated yet. This year, the average tahiti lime quotes were higher than in 2017 most part of the year (except for March, July and August), pushed up by lower supply and firm demand, from both Brazilian processors and the international market.
ORANGE – Higher supply and weakened demand pressed down pear orange quotes by 7.9 % from October to November, to the average of 30.24 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, last month. In general, rains and the slight cold front during the month halted the citrus market. However, although demand decreased, the harvesting was limited by precipitation, constraining sharper price drops.
FIELD – The heavy rains from October and November in the main citrus producing regions from São Paulo State concerned Brazilian citrus growers regarding the quality of the mature oranges from the current season (2018/19). High moisture was leading the late fruits to grow up to large sizes before the ideal harvesting period (due to the higher water concentration), reducing acceptance in the in natura market.
This scenario may also reduce yield at processors. Still, farmers believe these fruits may be accepted for crushing, which may limit volume reductions, based on the smaller production in 2018/19.
All Oranges 77.0 Million Boxes
The 2018-2019 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is lowered to 77.0 million boxes, down 2.00 million boxes from the October forecast. If realized, this forecast will be 71 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 32.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 45.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2008-2009 through 2016-2017 seasons. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to those 9 seasons unless noted. The hurricane affected 2017-2018 season is excluded from the regressions.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Despite the firm sales prices, lower orange production in the 2018/19 crop from the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) should constrain the revenue of farmers who trade with processors, since the lower number of boxes produced per hectare tends to push up the unit price. Only in southwestern SP, where production has not changed much, revenue may remain at high levels.
According to data released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) on September 10, this crop should be 31.4 % smaller than the previous (2017/18), totaling only 273.3 million boxes (40.8 kilos) of oranges. This volume is 5.2 % lower than that first forecast by Fundecitrus in May.
Lower production estimates confirm the initial expectations of the agents consulted by Cepea, who believe that the performance of the current crop may have been compromised by both the high rate of flower loss from the first blossoming (between August and October/17) and the lack of rains in the first semester of 2018. Fundecitrus has reported that the average weight of all varieties is lower than that forecast in May, because of the severe drought (May – July).
Lower domestic supply, in turn, has boosted orange prices to processors this year. Besides, inventories from the 2018/19 crop should again decrease to critical levels by June 2019, according to forecasts from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters), totaling only 146.7 thousand tons of juice, the second lowest in the CitrusBR series, which started in 1988/89, and only enough for two months of exportations.
After the new estimates were released, prices have been stable in the spot market, at 24 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at the processor. However, quotes had already increased last month, when CitrusBR anticipated that estimates from Fundecitrus could be revised down. Despite the smaller amount available for crushing, the average yield is forecast to be higher than in the previous crop, due to the dry period in the citrus belt from May to July (CitrusBR).
Most farmers have already closed deals with the industry – since November/17, processors’ bidding prices have been up to 22 BRL per box. Thus, if quotes increase at processors from now onward, the few farmers with fruits available will still be favored.
SHORTER HARVEST – The new report from Fundecitrus has highlighted that the 2018/19 crop harvesting may end earlier, which, in turn, may push up orange quotes in early 2019, when supply is usually low. So far, 36 % of the oranges from that crop have been harvested, 2 percentage points above the same period last season.
IN NATURA MARKET – The low supply of fruits with the quality demanded by the in natura segment underpinned orange prices in the first fortnight of September. Thus, from September 3 to 14, pear orange quotes averaged 30.81 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 10.6 % up compared to that in the first fortnight of August.
In the market of tahiti lime, supply is low, which increased quotes in the first fortnight of September – in the first week of the month, prices surpassed 90 BRL per 27-kilo box. Between September 3 and 14, tahiti lime quotes averaged 67.42 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, a staggering 83 % up compared to that in the same period last month.
On the other hand, higher quotes have constrained exportations, due to the competition with the fruits from Mexico. According to Fresh Plaza website, tahiti lime shipments to Europe usually step up starting June, both from Brazil and Mexico.
In general, the exportation season for tahiti lime was positive in the first semester, but shipments decreased in both July and August, according to Secex, by 21.5 % and 8.2 %, respectively, compared to the same months of 2017. From January to August this year, exports totaled 76 thousand tons, a slight 0.4 % down compared to the same period last year.
Harvesting of the late oranges from the 2018/19 crop, which started in the first fortnight of August, should step up in September. Thus, with higher supply of other varieties, the farmers consulted by Cepea believe pear orange quotes (which have been higher than in 2017 since May/18, despite the crop peak) will not oscillate as much next month.
In light of the low pear orange supply this year, due to the weather, processors started to purchase late oranges (mainly valência) last month – only the fruits in the ideal maturation stage demanded by this segment were purchased. Therefore, the delivery of these varieties is expected to step up in the second fortnight of September, with a higher share of natal oranges.
In general, citrus farmers consider good the quality of the late oranges in irrigated orchards, since they can still grow until the harvesting steps up. However, on the farms with no irrigation, the drought has already affected production – either by staining the peel or by preventing the fruits from growing up.
PEAR – As for pear oranges, whose prices are over 34 BRL per box, on tree (for higher quality fruits), quotes are expected to increase even more until the end of the crop, since many farmers have reported low supply of that variety. In September, however, higher availability of late oranges should constrain significant price rises (since processors will still be selective regarding valência and natal purchases, until they reach the ideal standard for harvesting).
In August, pear orange quotes averaged 29.08 BRL per 40.8-kilo box in the in natura market, a staggering 77 % up compared to the same period of August/17, in nominal terms. The boost came from low supply in São Paulo State in 2018/19, large purchases from processors from SP and the volumes already sold through mid and long-term contracts. Thus, if competition between processors increases, prices in the field may rise even more in the coming months. Pear orange productivity should have the sharpest decrease compared to 2017/18, at 31.2 %.
TAHITI LIME – Tahiti lime quotes also increased in August. According to Cepea collaborators, many farmers interrupted harvesting, aiming to push up prices again – once the variety, still green, may stay longer on trees. Besides, international demand increased in that period too. Thus, between August 1 and 31, tahiti lime quotes averaged 35.75 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 21.4 % up compared to that between July 2 and 31.
Tahiti lime supply is expected to continue low next month, which may boost prices. In the off-season period (from September to October), many of the fruits still on tree will not have reached the ideal size and color to be harvested. Farmers believe tahiti lime volumes will increase only in November – if it rains during these months and if the volume is enough to favor fruits development on tree.
The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is unchanged this month at 45.0 million boxes. The total is comprised of 19.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 26.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production is unchanged at 3.88 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 700,000 boxes are white and 3.18 million boxes are the red varieties. The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast remains at 750,000 boxes.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The smaller crop forecast for the Brazilian citrus belt in 2018/19 (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro), at 288.29 million 40.8-kilo boxes (almost 30 % lower than the 2017/18 season), should result in critical inventories at processors from São Paulo State on June 30 2019. In 2017//18, despite the larger crop, supply was not significant, only enough to slightly increase the low inventories from 2016/17.
Thus, by June 2019, inventories should be 50 % smaller, considering forecasts for the 2018/19 crop. Data released by CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) on May 22 estimated ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent from 55.9 thousand tons to 154.7 thousand tons in June 2019. CitrusBR forecasts were based on the volumes crushed in the 2017/18 season, at around 243.4 million 40.8-kilo boxes, 34% down compared to the 370 million boxes crushed in the current season (2017/18).
Cepea calculations, however, indicate inventories are more likely to be from 55.9 to 102.6 thousand tons, not reaching the maximum level estimated by CitrusBR (at 154.7 thousand tons). To forecast that scenario, CitrusBR considered exportations will keep firm. Now, if processors do not aim to reduce inventories that much, the volume shipped may decrease in 2018/19.
The 2017/18 ending stocks of orange juice should be at 305.9 thousand tons by June 30 2018, 20.3 % up compared to that forecast in February/18. The positive 2017/18 harvesting ensured comfortable inventories to processors this year.
n general, the global demand for orange juice has been firm, mainly from the United States, Considering Florida crop may be 35 % lower, according to the USDA, juice availability should continue low in the next season (2019/20).
Regarding growers’ revenue, forecasts for the short-term indicate prices may not change much. Most farmers have already closed contracts with processors, and even if bidding prices rise from now onward, only a few growers would have fruits available for trading. Besides, productivity should be low, since the number of boxes produced per hectare results in a higher cost per unit and lower margins.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – Although the trading pace in the Brazilian citrus market slowed down in the second week of June, the supply of oranges in the stages demanded by the in natura market from São Paulo decreased, since delivery of these fruits to processors stepped up early in the month, when truckers’ strike ended. Thus, in the first fortnight of June, pear orange quotes averaged 25.52 BRL per 40.8-kilo, on tree, 1 % down compared to that in the same period of May.
As for tahiti lime, harvesting started again (after the end of truckers’ strike), pressing down quotes as well. Besides, demand was weakened in the domestic market. In the first fortnight of June, tahiti lime quotes averaged 36.36 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 26.1 % down compared to that between May 1 and 15.
The smaller crop forecast for the Brazilian citrus belt in 2018/19 (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro), at 288.29 million 40.8-kilo boxes (almost 30 % lower than the 2017/18 season), should result in critical inventories at processors from São Paulo State on June 30 2019. In 2017//18, despite the larger crop, supply was not significant, only enough to slightly increase the low inventories from 2016/17.
Thus, by June 2019, inventories should be 50 % smaller, considering forecasts for the 2018/19 crop. Data released by CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) on May 22 estimated ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent from 55.9 thousand tons to 154.7 thousand tons in June 2019. CitrusBR forecasts were based on the volumes crushed in the 2017/18 season, at around 243.4 million 40.8-kilo boxes, 34 % down compared to the 370 million boxes crushed in the current season (2017/18).
Cepea calculations, however, indicate inventories are more likely to be from 55.9 and 102.6 thousand tons, not reaching the maximum level estimated by CitrusBR (at 154.7 thousand tons). To forecast that scenario, CitrusBR considered exportations will keep firm. Now, if processors do not aim to reduce inventories that much, the volume shipped may decrease in 2018/19.
The 2017/18 ending stocks of orange juice should be at 305.9 thousand tons by June 30 2018, 20.3 % up compared to that forecast in February/18. The positive 2017/18 harvesting ensured comfortable inventories to processors this year.
In general, the global demand for orange juice has been firm, mainly from the United States, Considering Florida crop may be 35 % lower, according to the USDA, juice availability should continue low in the next season (2019/20).
Regarding growers’ revenue, forecasts for the short-term indicate prices may not change much. Most farmers have already closed contracts with processors, and even if bidding prices rise from now onward, only a few growers would have fruits available for trading. Besides, productivity should be low, since the number of boxes produced per hectare results in a higher cost per unit and lower margins.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – Orange sales were slow in the in natura market in May, due to both colder weather in São Paulo and truckers’ strike, which halted transportation. With the protests, which started on May 21, part of the fruits harvested stayed on trucks.
In that scenario, growers preferred to interrupt harvesting late in the month, aiming to avoid losses. In May (2 – 30), pear orange quotes averaged 26.33 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 11.7 % down compared to that in April (2 – 30).
TAHITI LIME – The strike has affected the domestic and international markets of tahiti lime as well. According to Cepea collaborators, purchasers were concerned about acquiring fruits and not receiving them, while growers feared to be affected by flow difficulties. Farmers consulted by Cepea affirmed that the fruits that are still on tree should not be damaged by the harvesting interruption.
In May (2 – 30), tahiti lime quotes averaged 45.13 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 142.5 % up compared to that in April (2 – 30).
All Oranges 45.0 Million Boxes
The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 45.0 million boxes, down slightly from the April forecast. The total includes of 19.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 26.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges.
Non-Valencia Oranges 19.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is finalized at 19.0 million boxes. Harvest is complete for the included varieties. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is 500,000 boxes, 3 percent of the non-Valencia total.
Valencia Oranges 26.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is unchanged from the April forecast. Weekly certifications in April were between 2.4 million and 2.9 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted April 30 to May 1, 2018 showed 89 percent of the Valencia rows are harvested. Estimated utilization to May 1, including an allocation for other use, is 21.2 million boxes. Processors were surveyed regarding fruit processed through April 30th and the estimated quantity remaining to be processed to the end of the season. Analysis of the Row Count Survey, estimated utilization to the first of the month, and the processors report support holding the Valencia orange forecast.
All Grapefruit 3.95 Million Boxes
The forecast of all grapefruit production is lowered 50,000 boxes to 3.95 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is lowered 50,000 boxes to 700,000 boxes. The red grapefruit forecast is unchanged. Estimated utilization to May 1, with an allocation for non- certified use, of white grapefruit is 700,000 boxes and of red grapefruit is 3.25 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted April 29 to May 1, 2018, indicated harvest is complete for these varieties.
Tangerines and Tangelos 750,000 Boxes
The forecast for the tangerine and tangelo production is lowered 20,000 boxes to 750,000 boxes. If realized, this production level will be 54 percent less than last season’s production. Utilization is over for all tangerines and tangelos this season.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
On Wednesday, May 9, Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released new estimates for the 2018/19 season, reducing production in the citrus belt (São Paulo State and Triângulo Mineiro) by 27.6 % compared to that in the previous crop. According to the report, harvesting in that region should total only 288.29 million orange boxes (40.8-kilo) in 18/19, 11 % down compared to the historical average of the sector.
Lower estimates from Fundecitrus have confirmed Cepea forecasts for a smaller output in 2018/19, due to the damages and losses observed in the main flowering event (from August to October last year), mainly for pear oranges. That scenario was linked to the dry weather and high temperatures during the settlement of the flowers that would become the oranges from the new season. Still, the first estimates indicated losses around 20 %, which could result in a higher production than that forecast.
Ending stocks for orange juice should be 22 % larger on June 30, 2018 (at 254.2 thousand tons), according to CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters), but that is still the fourth lowest volume in the last 20 years. Thus, the citrus belt would have to harvest, once again, high amounts, in order to ensure comfortable inventories at processors. The demand for orange juice has been firm, mainly from the United States, making the global supply and demand scenario even more difficult.
However, in the short-term, growers’ revenue may not increase significantly, since most of them have already closed anticipated trades with processors – trades have been closed since November last year. Thus, only a few growers still have fruits available for trading.
Currently, only one of the large-sized processors has been purchasing fruits in the spot market. Before the new estimates were released, quotes for all varieties were at 15 BRL per 40.8-kilo, harvested and delivered at the processor. However, prices may increase as the crop nears and more processors enter the market.
In the mid-term, on the other hand, forecasts for the next season (2019/20) are more positive, considering juice inventories may be empty by June 2019. Besides, with the smaller output in Florida, international demand for the commodity should continue firm during the season. There are concerns with the weather in the coming months as well, which may lower the volume forecast even more.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – Orange sales increased in the in natura market in early May. According to growers, the beginning of the month, when workers’ wages are paid, may have favored demand. However, the average price for that variety in the first fortnight of the month was 19 % lower than in the first fortnight of April. That scenario is linked to higher supply in São Paulo, as well as the slow crushing pace at processors, which led orange sales exclusively to the in natura market (these fruits would be allocated to processors for crushing). Between May 2 and 15, pear orange quotes averaged 25.81 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 19 % down compared to that in the first fortnight of April (2 – 13).
Tahiti lime quotes, however, continued at high levels in that period, both in the domestic market and for exportation. According to growers, the fruits still on tree have a good quality, but have not reached the ideal size to be harvested yet – due to the lack of rains in São Paulo. Thus, tahiti lime quotes averaged 49.17 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, between May 2 and 15, a staggering 174.2 % up compared to the price average in the first fortnight of April.
Opposite to the expected by agents, tahiti lime supply has been controlled in São Paulo State, and quotes, underpinned at higher levels. The price average in April/18, at 18.61 BRL per 27-kilo box (harvested) was the second highest for the month, in nominal terms, in all Cepea series, which started in 1996 for this product – compared to March/18, that price average is 34.2 % higher.
Previously, agents expected the harvesting of the fruits from the second flowering event to increase tahiti lime availability in the in natura market in April. However, low rain volumes in the citrus belt in the first two months of the year delayed fruits development, extending their period on tree.
Purchasers have claimed difficulty to find good quality tahiti lime in the in natura market. While the amount of mature fruits is low, the new ones are still green, postponing the harvesting. In that scenario, agents fear the volume of tahiti lime may increase too much in May, which could press down quotes – purposeful harvesting delays may press down quotes as well.
As for the industrial segment, bidding prices in the spot market were around 15 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at the processor, in April, with only one plant (smaller-sized) receiving that variety.
In the international market, tahiti lime exportations have reached new records in the crop, totaling 32.25 thousand tons from January to March/18, according to Secex. Compared to the same period of the previous season, current shipments are 2.5 % higher.
For the coming weeks, however, competition with Mexico shipments is expected to increase, since supply is reduced in Brazil, but growing in Mexico. According to Fresh Plaza, the weather in Mexico has been favorable to tahiti lime production, and Mexican fruits have reached the ideal color and maturation for trading in that segment.
ORANGE – The first pear oranges from the 2018/19 crop are already available in the in natura market of São Paulo State. According to Cepea collaborators, with low supply and firm prices for this variety, harvesting has been anticipated. The higher availability of green fruits, however, has widened the price gap between the large-sized pear oranges and the small-sized ones.
As for the larger-sized fruits, prices have reached 35 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, while the small-sized fruits from the new season have been traded between 25 BRL and 28 BRL per box. Thus, in April, pear orange quotes averaged 29.83 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, 2.8 % up compared to that in March.
According to agents, the fruits available in the in natura segment have not reached the ideal maturation yet, due to the weather in the first two months of 2018, which delayed the development of some oranges from the 2018/19 season, mainly those from the second flowering event, which, in turn, opened between October and December/17. The slow maturation of these fruits is linked to the high temperatures in early 2018 and the smaller rain amount in the main citrus producing regions from SP, according to Inmet (National Institute of Meteorology in Brazil).
The larger rain volume in March, on the other hand, offset the development delay of the oranges on tree. Still, growers expect the fruits to be ready only from the second fortnight of May onward.
The crushing pace of the 2017/18 oranges has been slow at processors from São Paulo State. Currently, only one plant of the large-sized processors is operating (in Araraquara), receiving early oranges, both purchased through contract and in the spot market, where bidding prices for pear and late oranges have been around 15 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at the processor. At small-sized processors, however, mainly those that produce fresh juice, quotes may reach 23 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, depending on yield and quality.
Crushing of the 2018/19 early oranges, in turn, should start only in May – activities are forecast to step up in June. Remuneration in the spot has not been defined yet, but prices bid by processors are expected to be similar or even higher than in the 2017/18 crop (at 18 BRL per box), since orange supply is expected to be smaller this year, and juice inventories, limited.
2017/18 SEASON – On April 10, Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) announced that orange production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) ended with 398.35 million boxes of 40.8 kilos, a staggering 62.4 % up compared to that harvested in the 2016/17 crop (245.3 million boxes). Compared to the average in the last 10 years, the current production is 25 % higher and the largest since 2011/2012, when it totaled 416 million boxes. According to Fundecitrus, good rain volumes in the developing period and higher investments in crop management favored productivity.
DOMESTIC MARKET – With the slower crushing pace, early oranges were sold exclusively to the in natura market in the first fortnight of April. Between April 2 and 13, pear orange prices averaged 31.88 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 17.6 % up compared to the average in the first fortnight of March.
As for tahiti lime, the market was calmer in the first half of April. However, with the price rises observed in late March, growers continued to control the harvesting pace, aiming to underpin quotes. In that scenario, tahiti lime prices averaged 17.93 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 31.1 % up compared to that in the first fortnight of March.
Orange production final1 estimate totals 398.35 million boxes
The 2017-2018 orange production final estimate for the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais Citrus Belt, published on April 10, 2018 by Fundecitrus – Fund for Citrus Protection, carried out in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA- RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is of 398.35 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, 62 % higher in comparison to that of the previous crop (2016-2017) with a final figure of 245.31 million boxes, and 25 % above the average of the seasons of the last ten years3. All crop estimate updates published along the season showed positive change as compared to the previous expectation. The final figure represents an increase of 0.27 % in relation to the update published in February 2018 and 9.30 % in relation to the initial May 2017 forecast.
The closing figure for total production includes:
- 77.48 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties;
- 18.02 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Valencia Argentina, Seleta and Pineapple varieties;
- 118.47 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety;
- 139.62 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties;
- 44.76 million boxes of the Natal variety.
Approximately 30.51 million boxes of the final estimated crop were produced in the West of Minas Gerais.
Regarding the productivity index, the crop 2017-2018 showed a remarkable performance: 1,033 boxes were harvested per hectare, against 634 boxes per hectare in 2016-2017. The significant variation between the two crops was triggered by a favorable conjunction of factors. Suitable weather for citrus growing and improved cultural practices in groves in 2016, evidenced by the increased demand of inputs for crop nutritional and phytosanitary management, influenced positive results…
1 Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Valencia Argentina, Seleta, Pineapple Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2 Department of math and science.
Please download the complete forecast under: https://bit.ly/2JGhOMT
New estimates for the 2017/18 orange production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) may affect ending stocks of the season, on June 30, 2018. Data released by CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) indicate that the larger orange harvest may more than double the juice volume held by processing companies in São Paulo, compared to the same period last season.
The Association says that the season may finish with juice inventories at 254.2 thousand tons (equivalent to concentrate juice), which represents 12 weeks of consumption. This figure is 22 % higher than that estimated in August 2017; however, it is still the fourth lowest over the last 20 years.
Although still uncertain, initial expectations indicate that the 2018/19 orange production will be smaller than in the current season, except in southwestern São Paulo (Avaré and surroundings), where the weather may allow production similar to that in 2017/18. Therefore, there is nothing indicating orange juice surplus, also based on the good performance of exportations.
The recovery of inventories compared to the CitrusBR projection released in August was already expected by the sector, given that estimates for the orange crop, performed by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund), has already been reviewed upwards three times since the first release of CitrusBR. In the first estimate (May/17), Fundecitrus forecast 364.5 million 40.8-kilo boxes in São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro; however, due to favorable weather conditions during the season and better cultural practices, that estimate was revised up to 397.27 million boxes on the projection released on February, 15.
The good rainfall, on the other hand, may affect industrial revenue (number of necessary orange boxes to produce one ton of concentrate juice). CitrusBR data indicate that, on the average of the season, 282.49 orange boxes may be necessary for each juice ton, 5.7 % more compared to the previous estimate (August).
2017/18 CROP – According to Fundecitrus data released on February 15, the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) may produce 397.27 million 40.8-kilo boxes of oranges in the 2017/18 season, 62 % more than in the 2016/17 season (245.3 million boxes) and 3.13 % higher in relation to December forecasts. Fundecitrus says that, considering all varieties, 97 % of the total of the crop has already been harvested.
Orange growers from São Paulo expect the rains observed in the state in January to favor a new blossoming in the upcoming weeks, as trees of some orchards were budding. In mid-January, growers from eastern SP already observed new blossoming, which may originate the 2018/19 pear oranges out of the desirable period. Moreover, in the current developmental stage of the plants, rains also favor the settling of second or third blossoming, observed in some orchards in São Paulo between October and December.
On the other hand, humidity concerns citrus growers regarding diseases, such as “estrelinha” (blossom-end-rot), which may hit open flowers. Therefore, producers adopted preventive measures to avoid new losses. Besides high moisture, another aspect that may limit the 2018/19 crop volume is the larger production in the current season (2017/18), which reduced the plant vigor last year. The 2017/18 season is almost 57 % higher than the previous one.
PRICES – The availability of high quality oranges was limited in São Paulo State in January, increasing the supply of low quality fruits and pressing down quotes. Moreover, rains lowered the demand for citrus fruits in that period. In January, pear orange quotes averaged 20.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 46.7 % lower than in January/17, but still 0.3 % higher than in December/17. As for tahiti lime, high supply and the weak pace of trades (domestic and international) pressed down values last month. On the other hand, demand was heated, due to the big size of the fruits and the intensification of crushing. In January, tahiti lime quotes averaged 20.50 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 50.1 % down compared to that in December/17.
Fresh orange production is estimated at 480,000 metric tons (MT) in 2017/18. Australia is a counter- seasonal exporter of mainly Navel oranges to north-Asian markets such as China and Japan while the United States exports Navel oranges during Australia’s off-season. Post forecasts orange exports to reach 230,000 MT in 2017/18. Orange juice production and concentrate imports are forecast to remain stable.
Production of fresh oranges is forecast at 480,000 metric tons (MT) in 2017/18, the same as the previous year, assuming average seasonal conditions. Australia is a counter-seasonal exporter of mainly Navel oranges to north-Asian markets such as China and Japan, as the United States exports Navel oranges during Australia’s off-season from December to February. Post forecasts orange exports of 230,000 MT for 2017/18. Post’s new export estimate is a 27 percent increase from 2016/17 driven mostly by an upsurge in demand from China. Imports of Navel oranges, mainly from the United States, are expected to be steady in 2017/18 at 20,000 MT.
Please read more under: gain.fas.usda.gov
All Oranges 46.0 Million Boxes
The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 46.0 million boxes, down 4.00 million boxes from the November forecast. If realized, this forecast will be 33 percent less than last season’s production and the least since the 1944-1945 season of 42.2 million boxes. The forecast consists of 19.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 27.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2007-2008 through 2016-2017 seasons. For those previous 10 seasons, the December forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 6 percent, with 8 seasons above and 2 below, with differences ranging from 16 percent below to 16 percent above. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons unless noted.
Non-Valencia Oranges 19.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is lowered 2.00 million boxes to 19.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and is projected to be above the maximum until harvest. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is lowered to 500 thousand boxes, and is 3 percent of the non-Valencia total. Final Navel size is below average and droppage is well above the maximum.
Valencia Oranges 27.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is reduced 2.00 million boxes to 27.0 million boxes. If realized, this will be the smallest Florida Valencia crop since the 1949-1950 season. Current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest.
All Grapefruit 4.65 Million Boxes
The forecast of all grapefruit production is unchanged at 4.65 million boxes. If realized, this forecast will be 40 percent less than last season’s production and the least recorded since the 1918-1919 season. The white grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 850 thousand boxes. The red grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 3.80 million boxes. Projected fruit size of white grapefruit at harvest is above average while projected droppage is above the maximum. Projected fruit size of red grapefruit at harvest is projected to be above average and droppage is projected to be above the maximum.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Total orange1 crop forecast update is 385.20 million of boxes
The orange production forecast update of the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt for the 2017-2018 season, published on December 11th, 2017 by Fundecitrus with the cooperation of Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is 385.20 million boxes, weighing 40.8 kg each. This figure corresponds to an increase of 2.98 % compared to the update published in September/2017 and an increase of 5.69 % in relation to the initial May/2017 forecast. Out of the total crop, about 29.43 million boxes are estimated for the Triângulo Mineiro region.
The data collected as of the publication of this forecast update show that the fruits harvested from all varieties in this season have an average weight above that of the initial forecasts. The forecast in May 2017 was that each fruit would weigh by harvest time an average of 154 grams; however, in September 2017, the unit weight rose to 158 grams and now is at 162 grams. The weight gain was the main reason which caused increased production in early varieties in September 2017 and continues to be the determining factor for the increase in mid-season and late varieties of this update. The fruit droppage rate is confirming to be high vis-à-vis the crop standards in the citrus belt, in line with the initial forecast, since the variation since May 2017 did not decrease even by half percent point from the estimated value. The positive result so far was triggered mainly by rainfall above historical levels at the beginning of the season, which again fell at producing regions in October, reaching an average of 147 mm, and 227 mm in November, after the drought which lasted from July to September, with only an accumulated total of 47 mm for the quarter, according to Somar Meteorologia’s weather forecast. In addition to the weather, the good performance of the harvest is related to greater intensity of crop management at the groves, which can be evidenced by the increased demand of inputs used in their nutritional and phytosanitary management as seen in the last year in citrus growing. …
1 Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Valencia Argentina, Seleta, Pineapple Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2 Exact Sciences Department, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal.
Please download the complete forecast: www.fundecitrus.com
The first acquisition proposals for oranges from the 2018/19 crop have started to be reported in the market of São Paulo State. Occasionally, large-sized processors have demonstrated interest in trades around 20.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at the processor.
In general, according to agents from processors, these proposals may indicate the possible price level in the next crop, which should be smaller than the current season, that produced one of the largest volumes in all times. The first prices bid by processors, around 20.00 BRL per box, are higher than those traded in the spot market this season (17.00 BRL per box for prompt-delivery), but lower than those in the 2016/17 crop, when supply was low (averaging 22.02 BRL per box between July and December/16).
Citrus growers are concerned with the next orange crop in São Paulo. Although it is still early to measure the 2018/19 harvesting, some growers estimate the fruitlet drops of the main flowering event, between late August and early September and considered positive, may have reached 50 % (mainly for pera rio, which is more sensitive to the hot and dry weather in the last months).
BRAZILIAN MARKET – The demand for oranges was higher in the first fortnight of November in the domestic market, due to the beginning of the month, when sales usually increase. Besides, with lower supply of pear oranges with quality near that demanded by the segment, quotes of higher quality fruits pushed up the price average. Thus, from November 1 to 14, pear orange prices averaged 19.79 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 2.2 % up compared to the average between October 2 and 13.
The volume of tahiti lime, in turn, increased in the in natura market. Besides the fruits that are reaching the size demanded by the segment, some growers were taking advantage of the firm prices to harvest and flow the variety, even before the fruits reach the ideal size and color. Thus, the availability of small-sized tahiti lime (which should be ready only this month) was increasing.
This scenario is hampering tahiti lime exportations as well, since the volume of fruits in the ideal size for shipment is low, and prices are still considered high. Besides, with the nearness of the holiday season, exportations should step up, concerning exporters regarding availability even more. Between November 1 and 14, tahiti lime quotes averaged 60.60 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 25.9 % down compared to that between October 2 and 13.
EXPORTATIONS – In the 2017/18 season (July to October/17), exportations of FCOJ Equivalent continue 25 % higher than in the same period last crop, according to Secex, totaling 419.2 thousand tons. Revenue, in turn, increased 32 %, to 747.6 million USD. In Real, revenue rose 30 % in the same comparison, totaling 2.36 billion BRL. This rise was already expected by agents from the sector, based on the larger Brazilian production and higher demand from the United States.
Tahiti lime exportations, in turn, decreased, due to lower supply in Brazil in the last months. Thus, this crop (Jan. to Oct/17), shipments have totaled 81.4 thousand tons, 2.4 % lower than in the same period last season (Secex).
