Persistent unfavorable weather conditions are expected to have a significant impact on citrus production in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23. Post forecasts lemon production to decline by 10 percent from MY 2021/22 to 1.65 million metric tons (MMT). Orange production is projected to fall by 13 percent to 623,000 MT, and tangerine production is expected to decrease by 18 percent to 285,000 MT.
Lemon exports are expected to decline to 200,000 MT in MY 2022/23, due to lower production. Orange exports are projected to decrease slightly to 55,000 MT, and tangerine exports are estimated to decrease to 30,000 MT, both due to smaller production …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The Brazilian exports of orange juice increased in the 2022/23 season (July/22 – June/23), after fading for two consecutive seasons. According to data from Secex, Brazil exported 1.09 million tons of the product (Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice FCOJ Equivalent) in the 22/23 crop, 9 % up the volume shipped in the previous season. The revenue received from these shipments totaled USD 2.1 billion, a staggering 28 % up, in the same comparison.
Although the consumption of orange juice is not increasing in the major destinations of the Brazilian product – and despite the low national inventories –, the United States had higher import needs in the last years, due to the steep production decrease in Florida – mainly in the current season, 2022/23 –, which had been facing the effects of greening and was hit by hurricanes late last year.
According to Secex, the Brazilian exports of orange juice to the US have increased high this season, totaling 340.9 thousand tons, 69 % higher than the volume shipped in 2021/22. Revenue totaled USD 701.9 million, a staggering 93 % up, in the same comparison. As production is not expected to rise high in Florida in the short term, the US may continue with high imports needs, and Brazil is the number one supplier of orange juice in the world.
In a report released in June, Florida Citrus Department confirmed higher imports to the US: between Oct/22 and Apr/23, the country doubled the volume of FCOJ imported from Brazil compared to that in the previous season; of NFC (Not-From-Concentrate) orange juice, shipments rose 82 %.
EUROPEAN UNION – To the European Union, the number one destination of the Brazilian orange juice, exports totaled 569.6 thousand tons in the 2022/23 season, 8 % less than that shipped in the previous season. Revenue totaled USD 1.13 billion, 9 % up, in the same comparison.
The orange output in the citrus belt in southeastern Brazil (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2023/24 season is estimated at 309.34 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, according to data from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released on May 10th. This volume is 1.5 % lower than that harvested last season.
According to Fundecitrus, the major reasons for the lower harvest are rains above the historical average (although they have favoured both the vigor of trees and fruits growth, rains raised flower rotten), the negative biennial cycle (except for northern SP, where productivity was lower last season), lower blooming for some late varieties (whose harvesting was delayed and/or production was high in 2022/23) and the higher incidence of greening, which is expected to raise the rate of fruit fall. On the other hand, high moisture may favour fruits weight, which may be the highest since 2017/18.
As for productivity, the average forecast for the citrus belt is at 918 boxes per hectare, a slight 0.6 % up from that in the 2022/23 season.
Although the harvest expected in the citrus belt is within the average of the last 10 years, the needs of juice processors in SP for oranges is very high. Inventories are low, and the number of oranges to be available is not expected to be enough for stocks to recover.
Indeed, according to a report from CitrusBR released this month, the volume of juice stocked by the processors in SP in Dec/22 was 14.5 % lower than that in the same period of 2021. If this percentage continues stable until the end of the 2022/23 season (on June 30, 2023), ending stocks may total 122.3 thousand tons (juice equivalent), very low – maybe even insufficient – to meet the markets’ demand until the new season steps up.
Orange supply has been low in Brazil since early 2023. In April, the pear oranges available in the market were the ones that ripen out of the usual period. However, the ones that were harvested earlier are not well accepted by consumers in the table market, since they did not reach the ideal maturation stage.
Despite low supply, pear orange prices weakened, due to the arrival of early varieties, such as hamlin, westin and rubi, to the market. Last month, the average price for pear oranges closed at BRL 46.87 per 40.8-kg box (on tree), 3.08 % lower than that from March but still 11.56 % higher than that in April last year, in nominal terms.
As the availability of pear oranges is low, many farmers – majorly in northern SP – tried to anticipate the harvesting of early varieties, aiming to take advantage of the current firm prices and make cash flow during the inter-harvest.
Ponkan tangerine
The prices for ponkan tangerine dropped last month too. While in March, supply was low, in April, the harvesting stepped up. Still, availability was not that high. The average price for ponkan tangerine closed at BRL 64.07 per 27-kg box (on tree) in April, 8.56 % lower than that in March but 40.6 % up from that in April/22, in nominal terms.
Tahiti lime
Opposite to the scenarios observed in the markets of oranges and ponkan tangerine, for tahiti lime, prices are on the rise, boosted by low supply – as the peak of harvest took place in the first bimester of 2023, supply in lower now.
Orange production for the 2022-2023 crop season totaled 314.21 million boxes1
The 2022-2023 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 10, 2023 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is 314.21 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows …
Please download the complete crop update under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
The 2022/23 orange season in the citrus belt (São Paulo State and the Triângulo Mineiro) is ending, while the oranges from next season are still green. Thus, the volume of oranges being processed at the plants in SP has been low. Considering large-sized plants, only three of them were processing oranges in March. In the same period last year, the scenario was the same, while in 2021, only one plant was in operation, which confirms that industrial activity is still high for this time of the year.
However, one of these plants is forecast to end activities in April, since orange availability is low. So far, the prices paid by the industry in the spot market have been around BRL 38.00 per 40.8-kg box (harvested and delivered). Considering the oranges from the new season (2023/24), bids have been higher, at BRL 40/box, however, the farmers consulted by Cepea reported some deals at BRL 42/box.
Most of the oranges from the 23/24 season has been sold. Thus, the number of fruits available in the spot market in 2023/24 will be low. However, processors’ needs are high, since their juice inventories are low.
As for the oranges not purchased yet, agents from processors reported that farmers are not rushing to sell them, since quotations have been firm in the table market, which may lead them to send the ripen fruits to this segment. These fruits may also be sent to small-sized plants that produce whole juice, which continue to process fruits and are paying up to BRL 45/box. However, for the production of whole juice, quality requirements are usually higher.
Orange processing in the 2023/24 season is forecast to begin in mid-May at large-sized processors. However, only from June onwards the volume is expected to increase.
All oranges 16.1 million boxes
The 2022-2023 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 16.1 million boxes, increased 100,000 boxes from the February forecast. If realised, this will be 61 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 6.10 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 10.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
All Oranges 16.0 Million Boxes
The 2022-2023 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 16.0 million boxes, down 2.00 million boxes from the January forecast. If realised, this will be 61 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 6.00 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 10.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
All oranges 18.0 million boxes
The 2022-2023 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 18.0 million boxes, down 2.00 million from the December forecast. If realised, this will be 56 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 7.00 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 11.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The harvesting of late orange varieties began at a slow pace in mid-October. Although maturation was not ideal then, oranges were within the minimum standards required by the market, leading farmers to begin the harvesting.
The first variety available in the market was valência, followed by natal. Even the variety “folha murcha”, whose harvesting usually begins in December, arrived at the market in the first fortnight of November.
Agents expect supply (majorly of valência and natal oranges) to increase in the coming weeks, as the harvesting steps up in December – activities are forecast to end in mid-February. Also, the share of late varieties at juice processing plants is expected to gradually increase this month, accounting for the most part in December.
At juice processors, although quality standards (ratio and brix) are not within requirements, agents from the industry reported to be receiving late varieties – many of them blend these varieties with the juice from pear oranges without any quality loss. However, the supply of these varieties is still low because of difficulties to find labor for the harvesting.
Amid low rainfall in São Paulo State since the end of the Summer (in late March), farmers have been concerned about the effects of the current lack of moisture on orange trees. According to Inmet (Brazilian Institute of Meteorology), it has not rained in SP for 50 days, the longest drought since 2012. To make things worse, last month was the hottest July in SP in all times.
For the oranges still on tree (from the 2022/23 season), although major damages have not been reported, the drought is concerning. In dry-land groves, some fruits wilted, reducing both quality and size for the in natura market, making them only suitable to the industry. Besides, some oranges and leaves fell off due to high water stress.
Also, the effects of greening on oranges have increased this year in many Brazilian areas. It is important to consider that, according to Fundecitrus, last year, greening affected 22.37 % of the orange trees in SP, the highest average.
On the other hand, the lack of rains is necessary to cause groves some water stress, which is crucial for blooming. According to Cepea collaborators, in northern SP, where groves are irrigated, many farmers began irrigating the plants in mid-June, and trees are now beginning to bloom. In these areas, conditions have been favourable so far. In dry-land groves, blooming is expected to occur as soon as it rains in the citrus belt.
BRAZILIAN MARKET IN JULY – The demand for citrus increased in Brazil in July, favoured by the atypical warm weather during the month. On the other hand, although the orange harvesting was in full swing in SP last month, industries’ purchases were high, which pushed up quotations.
Citrus Forecast
The 2021-2022 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 41.0 million boxes. The total is comprised of 18.3 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties), up slightly from the June forecast, and 22.7 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up 1 percent from the June forecast. The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production is up 1 percent at 3.33 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 500,000 boxes are white, and 2.83 million boxes are the red varieties. The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast remains at 750,000 boxes …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The 2022/23 harvesting of early fruits is advancing in São Paulo state. In this scenario, industrial processing activities are following the harvesting pace and requiring more fruits.
According to players from the industry, the ratio of early fruits has improved and practically all fruits have been allowed for delivery, both in the spot market or for contracts. The industrial yield, however, is still low, which is common at the beginning of the crop.
Crushing activities are now taking place in eight processors in São Paulo: Araraquara, Araras, Bebedouro, Catanduva, Colina, Conchal and two in Matão. The companies have already been receiving some volumes of pera orange, but the majority is early fruits – the pera orange availability tends to increase from mid-September onwards.
In the spot market, values are ranging from 27.00 and 28.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, harvested and delivered at the processor. As for contracts, quotations may hit 31.00 BRL per box in big companies. In small processing companies, values are at 35.00 BRL/box.
For marketing year (MY) 2021/22, Post revises its estimates for fresh lemon production to 1.90 million metric tons (MMT), up by 15 percent, due to favourable weather conditions. Fresh orange production is projected to increase to 920,000 metric tons (MT), and fresh tangerine production is expected to increase to 400,000 MT. Recent relatively favourable weather conditions for both sweet citrus fruits have allowed trees to recuperate from a stressful period characterised by drought followed by heavy rains. Lemon exports are projected to increase to 250,000 MT due to larger production, and sweet citrus exports are expected to increase slightly to 65,000 MT for tangerines and to 88,000 MT for oranges. Container availability shortages and higher fleet costs, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and global inflation, are impacting the activity of the Argentine citrus industry, increasing export costs by 100 percent.
Please download the full report: https://apps.fas.usda.gov
On 1 June 2022 World Citrus Organisation (WCO) members gathered for the organisation’s Annual General Meeting (AGM). During the AGM the WCO Secretariat presented the consolidation of the production and export forecasts for the forthcoming Southern Hemisphere citrus season 2022. This preliminary forecast is collected from member industry associations in Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Peru, South Africa, and Uruguay. Along with citrus market development updates, the meeting also saw the re-election of WCO’s current co-chairs for a second mandate. Both South Africa and Spain, represented by the Citrus Growers’ Association and Ailimpo, were re-elected to head the organisation for another two years.
During WCO’s AGM, the preliminary forecast for the upcoming Southern Hemisphere citrus season was presented to the representatives from the citrus sector. According to the forecast, which is based on information provided by industry associations in Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Peru, South Africa, and Uruguay, citrus production is expected to increase by 4.85% compared 2021 to reach 24,832,270 tonnes. Exports are also projected to increase to 4,140,547 tonnes, 4.91 % up from the previous season. Philippe Binard, WCO Secretary General, explained, “Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, a positive trend of consumers’ demand for fruit and vegetables was noted, in particular for citrus fruit, widely recognised for its high nutritional value, notably in terms of vitamin C content. The large volume available is positive news as it will meet this increased demand”. On the processing side, a total of 13,210,832 tonnes of citrus are expected to be destined to the juice market – an 8.32 % increase compared to 2021.
Orange production is forecasted to increase by 5.01 % compared to 2021, reaching 16,596,973 tonnes. Soft citrus production is expected to remain stable (-0.11 %, 3,044,652 tonnes in total). An 8.28 % growth is projected for lemon production (4,754,260 tonnes in total), while grapefruit production should decrease slightly (-0.58 % compared to 2021, down to 436,386 tonnes). Eric Imbert, CIRAD – Technical Secretariat of WCO, indicated, “The Southern Hemisphere citrus export continues to grow, especially lemons and easy peelers. The Southern Hemisphere today represents 27 % of the global citrus market”. Forecast information was followed by a review of the past season’s results and analysis of the estimations for the current season with a focus on ongoing market challenges, including rising costs and logistics disruptions.
WCO is led by a co-chairmanship of two country full members. Both South Africa and Spain, who have co- chaired the organisation since its inception, were re-elected to head the organisation for a second mandate of two years. South Africa is represented by the Citrus Growers’ Association under the guidance of Justin Chadwick and Spain is represented by Ailimpo under the helm of José Antonio Garcia Fernandez. WCO additionally welcomed new members, with the organisation’s membership now totalling 34 associations and companies.
As observed for other agricultural products, the production costs of citrus farming have increased sharply in Brazil, due to higher inputs prices, majorly fertilisers. This scenario is concerning farmers in Brazil, considering that citrus production was low in the two previous seasons, which resulted in higher costs per unit.
Even if productivity and production increase in the 2022/23 season – compared to that in 2020/21 and 2021/22, because of the slightly more favourable weather –, higher inputs prices are expected to limit a possible reduction in the production cost per unit. Thus, profit margins may be lower than the expected, despite orange valuations in 2022/23 – so far, the ceiling orange price is at BRL 32.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered to processing plant (considering only large-sized processors).
Tight profitability may continue to constrain investments in both crops’ renewal and replating, mainly because shorter-cycle crops, such as soybean crops, are currently more attractive and bring better opportunities to farmers.
Last year, after five consecutive years of stability, the area allocated to citrus farming shrank in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro (citrus belt), according to data from Fundecitrus, which may happen again in 2022.
Lower profit margins may also hamper adequate crop management in the citrus belt. Lower investments in crops’ renewal and replanting added to difficulties related to crop management may reduce orange production even more in the mid-term. Low supply may underpin prices, since the stocks of orange juice at the processing plants in SP are not high, and production needs to be higher for inventories to be replenished.
Citrus market
The domestic demand for oranges has not been high enough to raise prices. According to Cepea collaborators, many purchasers are trying to pay lower prices, putting farmers off selling oranges in the domestic market.
Brazilian citrus farmers claim that, if prices drop lower than the current levels, sales in the in natura market will become unviable. Currently, juice processors are bidding prices up to BRL 32/box (harvested and delivered). Although the values paid by processors include the harvesting and freight, the quality standard required by this segment and the risks of default are lower, making sales to the industry more attractive.
In this scenario, if the demand from processors continues high and prices, attractive, sales to the in natura market are expected to decrease, at least during the Winter and the beginning of Spring, when supply increases, while demand decreases. Also, most oranges have not reached the ideal maturation stage yet, allowing farmers to wait and sell the oranges when the processing activities in the 2022/23 season begin, forecast to late May/early June.
The harvesting of early oranges is expected to advance in May, which may raise supply and press down quotations. In general, availability has been growing since mid-April, weakening prices.
In April (until April 28th), the average price for pear oranges closed at BRL 42.10 per 40.8-kilo box (on tree), a slight 4.96 % down from that in March (BRL 43.00/box). Before that, values had increased for two months.
On the other hand, for early oranges, quotations were firm in April – the average price for rubi oranges closed at BRL 35.71/box, 3.63 % higher than that in March. As the values for this group of oranges have been lower than that for pear oranges, the competitiveness of early oranges has increased.
For the coming weeks, if prices drop, sales tend to increase, since demand may be higher. However, if values decrease too steeply, farmers may reduce the harvesting, since the oranges on tree have not reached the ideal maturation stage yet. Thus, citrus farmers may prefer to wait for the beginning of activities at processing plants. The industry’s purchase proposals for the oranges from the 2022/23 season have been up to BRL 32.00/box (harvested and delivered).
Although two plants of the large-sized processors were processing oranges in late April, activities were slow because of low supply. By the end of last month, only one plant was purchasing early oranges (as long as ratio is near or higher than 14).
The weather has been favouring the development of the 2022/23 orange crop. In general, frequent rainfall (since mid-October 2021) is helping the oranges to grow bigger and, thus, agents expect productivity to recover from the two previous seasons, when the volume harvested was low.
According to Cepea collaborators, the general scenario has been more favourable this year. Although the first blooming was late in some orchards (in mid-September in irrigated orchards and in October in dry land, after the return or rains), the number of flowers was considered positive, complemented by other blooming in the following months. Besides, the fruits set rate was high, favoured by rains followed by sunny days most of the time.
It is important to highlight that the damages caused by the long drought in the last two years (and frosts in some areas last Winter) were not completely offset, however, orange trees are currently more vigorous, leading agents to believe that productivity will be higher this season. Still, agents have distinct estimates about the harvest: some, who are more pessimistic, expect 300 million boxes to be harvested, while others, more optimistic, believe it will hit 350 million boxes. However, most of them expect something between 300 and 350 million boxes.
The only available estimates were released by the USDA in December, indicating the crop in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro to total 305 million boxes (15.5 % higher than that in 2021/22). Agents are waiting for Fundecitrus’s estimates, to be released in May.
It is worth to mention that, despite the production increase, orange supply is expected to be tight in the 2022/23 season, due to the high demand from processors to replenish juice stocks – which are forecast at 127 thousand tons by the end of the 2021/22 season, in June 2022, according to estimates from CitrusBR. Still according to CitrusBR, this volume will not be enough to meet the world demand until the new season steps up.
In that scenario, even if the volume produced is near the expected by the more optimistic, there should not be an orange surplus, which justifies the high prices bid by processors for 2022/23.
This scenario may also limit supply in the in natura market along the season, however, this would not ensure higher prices, since the purchase power of many consumers in Brazil is weak because of the current high inflation and the national economic scenario.
All Oranges 41.2 Million Boxes
The 2021-2022 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 41.2 million boxes, down
2.30 million boxes from the February forecast. If realized, this will be 22 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 18.2 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 23.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
In late February, the large-sized processors in São Paulo made their first purchase proposals for the oranges from the 2022/23 crop. Of the three companies in the state, two of them are interested in closing deals, bidding from BRL 30 – BRL 32.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered. The third processing plant was only renewing existing contracts. However, the number of deals closed is still low, since farmers expect prices to rise higher, due to both firm demand from the industry and, largely, higher production costs.
Indeed, data recently released by CitrusBR show that the volume of orange juice stocked by the end of the current season (in June 2022) will not be enough to supply the international market until the middle of next season. According to CitrusBR, ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent in the 2021/22 season are expected to total 126.574 thousand tons – possibly ranging between 115 and 135 thousand tons. It is important to mention that previous estimates (from September 2021) pointed to stocks between 170 and 190 thousand tons, but bad weather conditions (drought and frosts) reduced processing and hampered fruits development and ripening (influencing industrial yield).
If CitrusBR’s forecasts are confirmed, the volume stocked is expected to be much lower than the strategic level, of 250 thousand tons, scenario that may be observed at least until the end of the 2022/23 season (in June 2023) if the number of oranges produced is not high.
Cepea calculations show that, for stocks to surpass the strategic level by the end of next season, the number of boxes harvested in the citrus belt in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro needs to be over 340 million – and of this total, 300 million need to be allocated to the industry. For these results were considered sales of a million tons (slightly lower than the average) and the average industrial yield of the past five crops.
Although it seems juice supply in Brazil will be tight for at least one more season, agents from processors have not reported any significant valuations for the commodity yet. This would be the major reason why bids for the new season have not been higher. On Feb. 23, the May contract at ICE Futures closed at USD 1,993/ton, 2 % down from that on December 30. However, it is important to mention that values at ICE Futures do not reflect real sales prices of processing plants.
One of the facts that may be constraining juice valuations abroad is the fear of bottling plants as for the negative effects of higher prices in Brazil. In the major destinations for the Brazilian orange juice, the United States and the European Union, demand for the product has been fading for some years, majorly because of the wide variety of other beverages, such as flavoured water, energy drinks and other types of juice, for instance.
All Oranges 43.5 Million Boxes
The 2021-2022 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 43.5 million boxes, down 2 percent from the January forecast. If realized, this will be 18 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 17.5 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 26.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Orange prices increased in the Brazilian in natura market in the first fortnight of February. According to Cepea collaborators, frequent rains in the citrus belt (São Paulo State) favoured the quality (majorly the size) of oranges, making them suitable for sale in the in natura segment and allowing farmers to raise asking prices. Besides, rainfall also hampered the harvesting, limiting supply. In that scenario, values remained firm.
Usually, orange availability is not high in February – a month that may even be considered offseason –, however, as the 2021/22 season is late, supply is currently higher. Still, there is not an orange surplus in the domestic market, since processing at industries has been faster than usual this month.
So far, the number of early varieties to be harvested is not high – activities are expected to step up only from March onwards. However, supply may be constrained by the low flower set in the first blooming. Thus, the oranges currently available in the in natura market are mostly late varieties and pear oranges out of the ideal period.
TAHITI LIME – The production of tahiti lime is also being favoured by rains, however, farmers reported difficulties to harvest the fruits, which underpinned prices in the first fortnight of February, although it is currently the peak of harvest for tahiti lime in Brazil.
Despite the recent valuations for oranges and tahiti lime, Cepea collaborators have reported that the current economic scenario in Brazil is still constraining higher price rises. With high unemployment and inflation rates and lower income, the purchase power of many consumers is weak.
ESTIMATES – Although rains have favoured the quality of part of the fruits in orchards, they have not been enough to reverse all the damages caused by the drought to the oranges from the 2021/22 season.
According to data from Fundecitrus released on Feb. 10, the orange output (São Paulo + Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2021/22 season is still estimated at 264.14 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms, the same as that estimated in December, but 10 % below that forecast at the beginning of the season.
According to Somar/Climatempo (weather forecast agency), rainfall in SP between May/21 and Jan/22 was 25 % below the average for the period. In the Triângulo Mineiro, rains were 5 % higher than the average. Thus, orange growth was hampered, and the average fruit weight decreased. However, it is important to consider that the oranges harvested in February and in March 2022 are expected to be slightly larger, since they have been favoured by recent rains.
The volume harvested is still enough to replenish ending stocks at the processing plants in SP. According to CitrusBR, by the end of the 2021/22 season (in June 2022), the volume of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (Equivalent) stocked is expected to total 170 – 190 thousand tons, lower than the strategic level (250 thousand tons). It is important to consider that new estimates are supposed to be released until the end of February.
In this scenario, the harvest in 2022/23 needs to be large enough to raise stocks at least to the strategic level and thus prevent a world shortage of orange juice. Cepea calculations show that the orange output next season needs to total, at least, 330 million boxes in order to raise juice stocks to 250 thousand tons.
PROGRESS OF THE 2021/22 HARVESTING – According to Fundecitrus’ report, 82 % of the orange orchards had been harvested by mid-January/22, similar to that in the same period last season (81 %).
All Oranges 44.5 million boxes
The 2021-2022 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 44.5 million boxes, down 1.50 million boxes from the December forecast. If realized, this will be 16 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 17.5 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 27.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
In 2021, orange prices were high in São Paulo State (SP) and in the Triângulo Mineiro. In general, the industry in SP kept the demand high for fruits, and the low production limited the supply throughout the year. Although the remuneration (in BRL per box) had been higher, the profitability for many citrus growers was restricted, given that the limited productivity increased the cost of production per unit even more.
Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) indicated, in its estimate released in December/21, that the production in the citrus belt may reduce 1.7 % compared to 2020/21, totaling 264.14 million 40.8-boxes. Even with the positive biennial cycle in the 2021/22 season and the higher fruit load, oranges have presented a smaller size, which explains the lower production.
From May to August 2021, rainfall accounted for only 30 % of the regular volume for the period, according to data from Somar Meteorologia/Climatempo. Fundecitrus says that this scenario affected even irrigated orange groves (which correspond to 30 % of the citrus belt), due to the limited water supply in tanks. In some areas, frosts in July worsened the situation. Besides the small-sized oranges, the premature fruit drop was one of the worst in history.
Due to the low supply of fruits, orange juice processors boosted prices compared to the 2020/21 season. In the partial of the crop (from July to December/21), the average price in the spot market was 27.50 BRL/40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at the industry, for a nominal increase of 22.5 % in relation to the same period last year.
EXPORTS – As expected, orange juice (volume equivalent to concentrate juice) shipments finished the 2020/21 season with a 7 % decrease in relation to the previous (2019/20). From July/20 to June/21, shipments to all destinations totaled 1.03 million tons, according to data from Secex. The revenue, in turn, amounted 1.54 billion USD, 15 % down compared to the season before.
IN NATURA MARKET – Orange prices hit nominal records in most part of 2021. Increases are attributed to the limited supply in the 2021/22 crop, because of the low volume of rainfall and high temperatures in the second semester of 2020 and the low humidity in 2021. From the second semester of 2021 onwards, the low quality of fruits (due to a long period of dry weather and frosts in July) reinforced the upward trend. In the partial of the crop (from July to December/21), the average price for pear oranges (in natura) is at BRL 39.52/40.8-kilo box, on tree, 20 % up from the average in the same period in 2020, in nominal terms.
TAHITI – The price trend was atypical in 2021. Values were low in the first semester and in some periods of the second part of the year, and peak prices were less intense. From January to December, the average price for tahiti lime was at BRL 25.19/27-kilo box, harvested, 31.3 % lower compared to that in 2020.
All oranges 46.0 million boxes
The 2021-2022 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 46.0 million boxes, down 1.0 million boxes from the October forecast. If realized, this will be 13 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 18.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 28.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The current number of flowers in the orange orchards in São Paulo – which will give origin to the fruits from the 2022/23 season – is considered satisfactory in most citrus-producing regions within the state. In general, while in irrigated orchards blooming was observed from September onwards, in non-irrigated orchards, flowers were only observed in October, after the late arrival of rainfall.
Agents have been concerned about the possible effects of the lack of rains this year on the vigor of orange trees, since low moisture may hamper fruit set, increasing the rate of fruitlet fall in irrigated orchards and, largely, in the orchards in dryland.
According to forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 90 % chance of La Niña forming in Brazil until the end of 2021. If this is confirmed, rainfall in the coming months may be lower than usual in the southeastern region of the country. However, La Niña is forecast to be weak in Brazil.
This scenario may have a negative influence on the output from the 2022/23 season, since the development stage of plants in the coming months demands good amounts of water. With estimates for low ending stocks of orange juice in the 2021/22 season, the output from 2022/23 needs to be high in order to ensure comfortable inventories for world supply.
Cepea calculations show that, for ending stocks in the 2022/23 season (June 2023) to return to the strategic level of 250 thousand tons, the output next season needs to surpass 330 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each. In this context, the average productivity would have to be around a thousand boxes per hectare, which has only been observed in seasons favored by the weather.
The price for pear oranges has been on the rise in Brazil since the beginning of the season, in June, influenced by the low supply of oranges in the market. In the second fortnight of October, pear orange prices surpassed BRL 50.00/40.8-kilo box, on tree, setting a new nominal record in the series of Cepea. The monthly average in October (in São Paulo State) closed at BRL 49.88/box, on tree, 10.1 % up from that in September/21 and 28.3 % above that in October/20, in nominal terms.
Agents in the Brazilian citrus sector did not expect supply in the 2021/22 season to be high, based on the effects of the weather on blooming and flower set. However, along the season, weather issues increased, with rainfall below the ideal and frosts in some locations at the end of July.
Although rains were more frequent in October, agents reported that the oranges were mostly small-sized, which kept the prices for larger-sized fruits on the rise – since this standard is required in the in natura segment. From November onwards, quality may increase, and a higher number of late oranges is expected to be available in the market. On the other hand, high purchases from the industry are also expected to control supply in the in natura market.
TAHITI LIME – In the Brazilian market of tahiti lime, the return of rains favored production and raised supply. Besides, the quality of the fruits continued low, and the exports pace was slow in October. Thus, prices for this variety dropped in the orchards in SP, averaging BRL 23.15/27-kilo box, harvested, 21.8 % down from that in September.
ORCHARDS – The rains that hit São Paulo State in October favored blooming in orange orchards, largely in dryland or those that had not bloomed yet. According to citrus farmers, the scenario varied among regions, according to the volume of rain and the production system (irrigated or dryland), but, in general, all agents agree that blooming was satisfactory.
As in previous seasons, this year’s flowering has been irregular and heterogeneous. While in some regions, orchards bloomed earlier (in September), in others, flowering was observed in October. However, the early flowers were compromised by the hot and dry weather in many areas, which led some of the fruitlets to fall, even in irrigated orchards.
Citrus farmers believe this will be another season of multiple blooming, which would hamper both the harvesting and management of trees because of the different development stages of flowers – as it happened in most Brazilian regions in the last years.
Although flowering brought some relief to citrus farmers in all regions, it is important to consider that plants are still debilitated, due to the long drought, which may hamper fruit fixing. Thus, the success of the recent blooming will depend on the weather from now onwards (high moisture interleaved with sunny periods) and preventive care for blossom-end rot. According to Cptec/Inpe (weather forecast agency), rains may be lower than the average in November and in December, which may be a reflex of the La Niña phenomenon, and hamper flower set.
The return of rains to important citrus-producing regions in São Paulo State (SP) cheered up farmers about flower development. However, it is still early to estimate results for the 2022/23 season, since the set of fruitlets will depend on the weather along October and more flowers may open until the end of the month.
According to data from Inmet (National Institute of Meteorology), rainfall is expected to average 50 mm in most citrus-producing regions in October.
ORANGE MARKET – The trading pace for oranges was slow in the Brazilian market in the first fortnight of October because of the holiday on the 12th. Higher rainfall is expected to improve the quality of the fruits on tree, although they have not reached the ideal standard to be sold yet. This scenario added to low supply pushed up orange prices in that period.
TAHITI LIME – In the market of tahiti lime, prices faded in the first half of October, reflecting the small size of the fruits available, which is not appreciated in the in natura market. In the second week of the month, values increased slightly, influenced by higher demand during the holiday (on the 12th), which surprised farmers.
ORANGE JUICE EXPORTS – The Brazilian exports of orange juice are on the rise in the current season (2021/22). According to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), between July and September, Brazil exported 278.9 thousand tons of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent to all destinations, 19 % up from that in the same period last season. Revenue increased more sharply, by 32 %, reflecting the higher prices paid for the product, totaling USD 440.8 million. Of the total volume shipped this season, 20 % were sent to the United States – the volume exported to the USA has increased by 33 %, and the revenue received from the country, by 51 %.
Estimates about the 2021/22 orange season in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) have been revised down, due to weather issues in Brazil. Data released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in September estimated the harvest to be 8.9 % lower than that forecast in the first report, released in May, at 267.87 million boxes. In light of that, the output may be similar to that in the previous season (268.63 million boxes). Although the 2021/22 season is a positive biennial cycle, oranges have been smaller, which explains lower production.
Although the estimates from May considered rainfall below the average, weather issues have increased since then, with frosts and severe drought. Between May and August, rainfall accounted for 30 % of the usual for the period, according to data from Somar/Climatempo Meteorologia (weather forecast agency).
The lack of rains has been damaging majorly the plants in dryland, however, agents from Fundecitrus highlight that even irrigated orchards (which account for 30 % of the trees in the citrus belt) have been debilitated by the drought, due to the limited availability of water at reservoirs. It is important to mention that the scenario has worsened since the frosts in late July.
Besides the smaller size of the oranges, the rate of premature fall of fruits is one of the highest. As the weather is forecast to continue unfavourable until the end of the season, the scenario is not expected to change, raising expectations for low production in 2021/22. Also, the chance of La Niña phenomena to occur until late 2021 is high, which may result in lower rainfall in southeastern Brazil in the second semester. This scenario would limit the growth of late varieties.
INDUSTRY – With the probable lower harvest of oranges in the 2021/22 season, the number of fruits allocated to processors is supposed to be lower too. CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) has not revised processing estimates yet, but Cepea forecasts the industry to purchase around 225 million boxes of oranges (40-8 kilograms each) this season. If this is confirmed and sales of orange juice are near the usual, juice inventories are expected to decrease steeply, to less than 200 thousand tons (Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice Equivalent), even with higher yield at processing plants, which usually happens in years of low rainfall.
This context will demand high orange production in the 2022/23 season (higher than 330 million boxes) so that ending stocks are replenished with no risk of world shortages. This situation may favor the prices paid to farmers in Brazil.
In early September, orange trees bloomed in some orchards in São Paulo State (SP). These flowers will become the fruits from the 2022/23 season. Cepea collaborators reported higher blooming in irrigated orchards, majorly in northern and northwestern SP.
However, citrus farmers have been concerned about the effects of the weather on flower settlement. In dryland orchards, which count exclusively on rainfall for moisture, precipitation has been insufficient to trigger blooming.
According to Somar Meteorologia (weather forecast agency), rainfall was low in the major citrus-producing regions in SP in the first half of September. Thus, while it does not rain significantly, farmers are investing in plant nutrition in order to help on fruit set.
During fruit set (after blooming), temperatures and soil and air moisture deeply influence production. However, in the last years, high temperatures and rainfall below the average were common, limiting the output, largely in non-irrigated orchards.
Climatempo (weather forecast agency) forecasts rains for the second fortnight of September, and rainfall is expected to be within the average in the month in most citrus-producing regions in Brazil, except in southern SP. On the other hand, according to NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), there is a 70 % chance that La Niña phenomena may return to Brazil until the end of 2021.
In Brazil, La Niña increases rainfall in the northeastern region and delays precipitation in the south. In southeastern BR, the scenario becomes similar to that in the southern area of the country, which concerns agents, in light of the current drought. For citrus farming, this delay may cause more damages to the 2022/23 harvest, since the coming months are critical for the development of trees, when higher moisture is needed.
BRAZILIAN MARKET IN SEPTEMBER – The demand for oranges increased in the in natura market in the first fortnight of September, favored by high temperatures and the payment of workers’ wages early in the month. As regards supply, the hot and dry weather in SP continued to limit the availability of high-quality fruits in the market (most of them are wilted and small-sized). In this scenario, prices increased.
By the end of the 2020/21 season, in June 2021, the inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) equivalent at Brazilian processors totaled 316.93 thousand tons, according to data from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released in mid-August. Compared to that at the end of the 2019/20 season, inventories decreased by 33 %. This reduction was already expected by agents, due to the slower crushing pace of oranges in 2020/21, when orange production was low.
CitrusBR avoided releasing estimates for the current season because of the weather issues (extended drought in the citrus belt and frosts in late July) in the major citrus-producing regions in Brazil, which are still concerning agents. However, ending stocks in the 2021/22 season (by June 2022) may be lower than the strategic level.
So far, considering Fundecitrus’ (Citrus Defense Fund) production estimates from May, of 294 million boxes (40.8 kilograms each), the volume processed may be around 250 million boxes. In that scenario, Cepea data indicate that ending stocks in the 2021/22 season (which ends in June/22) may not be enough to generate a world surplus of orange juice.
Also, agents in the Brazilian citrus sector believe that the estimates from Fundecitrus will be revised down, due to the drought and frosts in Brazil. In this context, the volume processed may be revised too, and juice inventories may be even lower. Thus, processors will depend on higher orange production in 2022/23 to, at least, replenish inventories – which is a concern too, considering that the effects of the weather may be extended to the coming season, since many trees are currently debilitated.
As regards orange processing, the crushing pace for the fruits from 2021/22 was fast in August at the large-sized plants in São Paulo State (SP), with mostly pear oranges being crushed.
Orange processing is expected to last until mid-February/March 2022, with less plants in activity compared to that in the second semester of 2021, however, with higher volumes being produced than that in the same period of previous years, because of the delay in the development of trees (due to weather issues) and irregular flowering. It is worth to consider that the 2021/22 season is expected to have higher volumes of fruits from the third and fourth flowering events (altogether) since Fundecitrus began estimating crops, in 2015/16 – making it a late crop.
BRAZILIAN MARKET IN AUGUST – The demand for oranges was low in the Brazilian market in August, constrained by the current high price levels and lower quality of the oranges available (small-sized and wilted). Still, prices increased, boosted by low supply.
For a sustainable citrus supply chain
They serve as fragrant fertilizer, basis for vegan meat substitutes and even raw material for sustainable fashion: the peels and fruit fibers left over from pressing orange juice. They are already being recycled – but not by default. The “ImPUlSe” project, led by the University Duisburg-Essen (UDE, Germany), wants to change that and also aims to render the entire suppy chain for citrus fruits in the Mediterranean region more sustainable. A total of € 1.3 million in funding will be provided*, € 530,000 from the Federal Ministry of Education and Research will go to the UDE. Kick-off is on September 9.
“Innovation in the by-product supply chain of citrus in the Mediterranean area”, or ImPUlSe for short, is coordinated by the Centre for Logistics and Traffic (ZLV) at the UDE. From planting the seeds on the plantations to transporting them to the local supermarkets and recycling the peels and fibers – the international team wants to analyze and improve the processes by following the “triple bottom line” approach: All changes should be sustainable on an ecological, economic and social level.
The four pilot projects are located in Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia and Turkey. Besides the UDE as coordinator, research institutions and companies from all countries are involved, as well as a research partner from France: “Different disciplines are working hand in hand here. Thus, we will not only improve existing products, but also develop new supply chains for citrus by-products and open up new markets for producers from the Mediterranean region. Eventually, we will publish our results on an online platform and make them available to everyone, especially consumers”, explains spokesperson Dr. Ani Melkonyan-Gottschalk, executive director of the ZLV.
This innovation platform is expected to encourage exchange between all participants – even beyond the duration of ImPUlSe. It is also a basis for researchers to assess the sustainability of the changes they have initiated. “We are developing an evaluation system that simulates different scenarios to facilitate work for decision-makers in agriculture, food processing, trade and politics”, says Melkonyan-Gottschalk.
In the long term, the interdisciplinary project aims to use and reuse resources more efficiently, develop digital solutions and establish more effective market mechanisms. As a result, the employment rate and quality of life in the Mediterranean region are expected to increase.
*EU funding within “Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area” (PRIMA).
New study finds that vitamins and bioactives in 100 % orange juice help shore up natural immunity and fight immune-sapping inflammation in the body
A new research review, published in Frontiers in Immunology1, has found that a simple glass of citrus juice – for example orange or grapefruit – contains key nutrients and bioactive substances that help our immune system to work efficiently.
Scientists examined evidence from nearly 200 different studies and reports, and concluded that vitamin C, folate and polyphenol compounds in citrus juices have the capacity to impact on immune health, fight inflammation and improve our defence against bacteria and viruses.
Co-author, Philip Calder, Professor of Nutritional Immunology at Southampton University, said: “A weak immune system increases susceptibility to infections and allows these to become more severe. One component of the immune response is inflammation. Where inflammation is excessive or uncontrolled it can damage body tissues, sometimes irreparably, and affect our ability to fight infections. Having a diet rich in antioxidant foods and drinks is one way to control inflammation and ensure the body can mount an effective immune response. Trials in humans confirm that orange juice consumption reduces inflammation.
“Citrus fruit juices are particularly good sources of vitamin C and folate, which have roles in strengthening the gut and skin barriers which are our first line of defence against viruses and bacteria. In addition, these nutrients – which are absorbed well from fruit juices –support the function of many types of immune cells including phagocytes, natural killer cells, T-cells and B-cells.
“Another area of research is the bioactive polyphenols found in citrus fruit juices which include hesperidin, narirutin and naringin. These not only have anti-inflammatory effects but could also have direct anti-viral effects according to emerging data from modelling studies”.
Dr Carrie Ruxton, from the Fruit Juice Science Centre, comments: “The evidence about the positive role that fruit juices play in the diet continues to build. We know from several large studies that a daily glass of pure fruit juice provides vitamin C, folate and potassium, can help to lower blood pressure, and reduces the risk of stroke. Now it’s clear that citrus juices can also contribute to immune health which is crucial as we all get back to our normal lives”.
1Miles EA & Calder PC (2021) Effects of Citrus Fruit Juices and Their Bioactive Components on Inflammation and Immunity: A Narrative Review. Front. Immunol. 12:712608. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2021.712608/full
The intense cold observed in São Paulo State (SP) in late July hit the orchards located in the citrus belt, with frosts registered in some areas. This scenario increased agents’ concerns about both orange production in the current season and the vitality of trees in the coming season – it is worth to mention that agents were already worried about these factors because of the lack of rains this year.
These agents are concerned about the vitality of the trees in all the groves hit by the recent frosts, since they are nearing the period of flower induction already debilitated by the lower rainfall in the last two years. However, it is worth to mention that it is still early to assess the damages caused by the bad weather, majorly the effects on the volume to be harvested next season.
Considering the current season (2021/22), the quality of the oranges on tree is expected to decrease, since some of the fruits affected by the frosts in late June/early July are dry and crystalised in the inside – these are undesired traits for both the in natura and the industrial segments, since the oranges have almost no juice in that condition. Besides, fruits dropped down in the areas that were already debilitated by the drought.
As regards next season (2022/23), the younger trees (which are currently sprouting) are expected to be the most damaged by the frosts. In the irrigated groves where flowering was anticipated, the effects of the bad weather are a concern too, since flowers may have been burned, as well as small fruits. It is worth to highlight that the recent frosts were not homogeneous, and it is still impossible to affirm that the volume to be produced in 2022/23 will be affected.
PONKAN TANGERINE – Although ponkan tangerine is more sensitive to temperature swings, the volume to be harvested in SP is not forecast to be affected, since the harvesting is practically over. On the other hand, in Minas Gerais, the volume to be harvested is higher, and there may be negative effects on the quality of the fruits.
TAHITI LIME – For this variety, although damages have not been assessed yet, concerns are higher, since tahiti lime is very sensitive to weather changes. Besides, differently from oranges, whose groves are mostly in the ripening stage or being harvested, development is at different stages among the regions with tahiti lime, with some of them in the flowering stage. According to Cepea collaborators, the intense cold caused the drop of some small fruitlets, flower buds and flowers.
The 2020-2021 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 52.8 million boxes. The total is comprised of 22.7 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties), unchanged from the June forecast, and 30.1 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up slightly from the June forecast. The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production is unchanged at 4.10 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 620,000 boxes are white, and 3.48 million boxes are the red varieties. The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast remains at 890,000 boxes …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The volume of orange juice stocked at Brazilian processors in the 2020/21 season (June 2021) is expected to be higher than the strategic limit (250 thousand tons). On the other hand, in the 2021/22 season (June 2022), the volume stocked may be lower than that.
As regards the 2020/21 crop, a report released by CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) on June 9 indicates that the inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent may total 310.759 thousand tons in June 2021, 34 % down from that in the same period of the 2019/20 season, but 14 % up from that previously estimated (in February 2021).
In the 2021/22 season, although oranges still need to ripen, juice inventories are likely to decrease, despite the possible recovery of production forecast by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund).
Although this scenario is not a threat to world supply in the 2021/22 season, it has been concerning agents about availability in the following season (2022/23), since production would have to be higher in order to avoid a lack of juice. However, with the recent area reduction in the Brazilian citrus belt, production should hardly surpass 350 million boxes. Thus, the prices paid to orange farmers in Brazil are likely to continue at high levels, at least until next season.
ORANGE AREA IN BRAZIL – The crop forecast survey released by Fundecitrus in late May surprised agents from the Brazilian citrus sector. The area allocated to orange groves in the 2021/22 season had its second largest decrease – in terms of both hectares and percentage – since the beginning of the PES project, in 2015/16.
In the 2021/22 season, the area allocated to orange groves might total 379.4 thousand hectares, 16.262 hectares smaller (- 4 %) than that in the previous season.
According to Fundecitrus, one of the reasons for this decrease is the drought, which is becoming more and more severe in Brazil, majorly in the current season. Thus, area reductions were more significant in the citrus-producing regions of São Paulo that had low rainfall in the last couple of years, with the worst effects observed in non-irrigated, condensed and rootstock groves, which are not that drought-resistant. In these groves, productivity decreased sharply last season, and many plants died. Besides, the current high prices of some commodities, such as corn, soybean and sugar, have attracted farmers.
This area reduction should considerably lower the productive potential of the citrus belt to around 340 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms in years of good productivity (1,000 boxes per hectare, on average).
BRAZILIAN MARKET IN JUNE – The weak demand for oranges in the in natura market of SP along with the current low temperatures pressed down orange prices in the first fortnight of June. However, expectations are for limited price drops or even price rises as processing steps up, reducing supply in the in natura market, largely of early varieties.
All Oranges 52.7 Million Boxes
The 2020-2021 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is raised 1.0 million boxes to 52.7 million boxes. The total includes 22.7 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 30.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The 2021-2022 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on May 27, 2021 by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp, is 294.17 million boxes (40.8 kg or 90 lb). Total orange production includes:
- 51.37 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties;
- 16.87 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple varieties;
- 84.66 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety;
- 107.07 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties;
- 34.20 million boxes of the Natal variety.
Approximately 26.09 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro.
As compared to the final forecast of 268.63 million boxes in the previous crop, the current projection represents an increase of 9.51 % although it is still below the average of 35 million boxes for the last ten crop seasons, which corresponds to a drop of 10.53 % …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
All Oranges 51.7 Million Boxes
The 2020-2021 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is unchanged at 51.7 million boxes. If realized, this will be 23 percent less than last season’s revised final production. The forecast consists of 22.7 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 29.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
With the anticipation of the drought and rainfall below the average in the first quarter of 2021 in São Paulo (SP), the development of the oranges from the 2021/22 season is below the expected, majorly in non-irrigated groves. At the current stage of groves development (fruit enlargement), moisture is crucial, which is warning farmers about the volume to be harvested this season.
So far, it is believed that production will be small, but larger than that in the 2020/21 season (due to the weather in the second semester of 2020 and its effects on flowering and settlement).
Besides the number of fruits, which is not forecast to be high, citrus farmers have been concerned about quality issues that may occur because of low moisture. The top complaints are related to size (since fruits may take longer to reach the ideal size) and wilted oranges (riper fruits), largely pear and early oranges. On the other hand, until the end of April, fruit drop, which may also be worsened by the lack of rain, was not significant, according to farmers.
In order to avoid higher quality loss, some farmers may accelerate the harvesting, even if the oranges have not reached the ideal size and ripening, which may hamper sales and constrain price rises.
INDUSTRIAL YIELD – On the other hand, industrial yield may be favored by the lack of rainfall in citrus-producing regions, since less boxes of oranges may be necessary to produce a ton of concentrated juice.
Orange production for the 2020-2021 crop season totaled 268.63 million boxes1
The final 2020-2021 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 12, 2021 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – was 268.63 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lb), which represents a decrease of 6.65 % in relation to the first crop forecast published in May 2020, accounting for a reduction of 19.13 million boxes. This crop had a decrease of 118.16 million boxes in comparison to the previous season, which is equivalent to a volume 30.55 % smaller than that of the 2019-2020 cycle, confirming a record crop loss for all the years in which the crop suffered the physiological effects of the negative biennial production cycle of orange trees since the beginning of the historical series in 1988. Total orange production included:
- 47.00 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
- 13.85 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple early-season varieties;
- 81.45 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
- 91.95 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
- 34.38 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.
- Approximately 19.33 million boxes were produced in West Minas Gerais.
One of the reasons that explains this substantial crop loss is the fact that orange trees started flowering in the spring of 2019, when reserves were lower because they had been used in the previous crop season when there was a significant yield increase. Decreased reserves led to a significant reduction in the number of fruits per tree in this season, a phenomenon known as alternate bearing. The other reason is the strong negative influence of the climate throughout the season. …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
All Oranges 51.7 Million Boxes
The 2020-2021 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is down 3.80 million boxes to 51.7 million boxes. If realized, this will be 23 percent less than last season’s revised final production. The forecast consists of 22.7 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 29.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The supply of early citrus fruits was increasing in São Paulo State (SP) in late March, while the demand from juice processors was lower, and businesses were facing a new period of restrictive measures to fight covid-19 in Brazil.
Although estimates do not point to an extremely high availability in April, supply should still be higher than that in March, since more early oranges should reach the ideal maturation stage to be harvested this month. As for demand, besides the new restrictive measures, logistic issues were constraining purchases from wholesalers and retailers in Brazil.
Among the major changes in food services during the covid-19 pandemic are the halt in school meals, which highly demands in natura oranges, and the closure of bars and restaurants, where the demand for juice is high. Thus, in March, fruits were mostly sold to supermarkets.
PRICES – Although orange prices were still high in March, underpinned by lower supply, they decreased late in the month. The average price for pear oranges in March was 38.71 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 2.7 % down compared to that in February. For hamlin oranges (early variety), the average closed at 29.48 BRL/box, on tree, practically stable in the same comparison.
According to Cepea collaborators, some farmers anticipated the harvesting of pear oranges, aiming to take advantage of the current price levels – these agents are aware of the forecasts for higher supply of early oranges in the market from April onwards and, thus, fear quotes may drop in the coming weeks.
In the Brazilian market of tahiti lime, which is also largely sold to bars and restaurants, the decrease in the demand and the slightly higher supply pressed down quotes in March. Besides, the pace for exports and crushing slowed down.
The average price for tahiti lime closed at 20.60 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 32.8 % down from that in February. However, despite this devaluation, prices are currently higher than that last year, due to lower production this season.
The global pectin market is estimated to reach USD 1.87 billion by 2026 and is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 6.4 % from 2018 to 2026. Pectin market is projected to witness significant growth over the forecast period. Increasing health consciousness among consumers and various health benefits of pectin products is expected to drive the global market over the forecast period.
Pectin are plant-derived compounds, a structural heteropoly saccharide that is contained in primary cell walls of the terrestrial plants. It is mainly extracted from citrus fruits, apples, apricots, cherries, oranges, and carrots. Commercially, it is available in the form of white to light brown powder. The industry is characterized by companies characterized by medium level of integration in the value chain. Packaging and shipping play an important role in integrating the value chain. This helps the companies to incorporate their businesses in a cost-effective way.
Suppliers include companies which are involved in the production & distribution of processes raw materials such as apple, citrus, and others. The rising shortage of raw materials and increased import for Brazil and European countries is resulting in high bargaining power to the suppliers. In addition, low threat of backward integration from manufacturers, except some of the major and giant market players is also resulting in high bargaining power of suppliers.
The pectin market witnesses an external threat of substitution from natural gum and Citri-fi. Citri-fi is natural functional fibers, which are derived from citrus fruits. They offer hydrocolloidal properties, which is significant for high water holding capabilities. There are also some synthetic alternatives such as polyurethane, but these are usually not considered suitable for skin contact applications. However, the various advantages of pectin over these products are expected to lower the threat.
Pectin extracted from this raw material are used for high cholesterol high blood pressure, & blood sugar, joint pain, weight loss, prevent colon & prostate cancer, high triglycerides, gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and diabetes. In addition, some people also use pectin to prevent poisoning caused by strontium, and other heavy metals.
Despite the shortage in the supply of raw material, some of the major players are also trying to increase their production capacity to meet the demand. For instance, Cargill acquired FMC’s plant to boost their pectin production capacity. The market is highly fragmented and competitive. In addition, it also experiences the presence of small-scale as well as giant players. The key and major companies are investing in R&D activities and frequently involved in merger and acquisition to increase their market share and product portfolio. Some of the companies that have a significant influence in the industry include DuPont Nutrition & Health, FMC Corporation, CPKelco, Herbstreith & Fox, Devson Impex Private Limited, Cargill Incorporated, B&V srl. and Yantai Andre Pectin Co. Ltd.
Growth in food & beverage industries, in emerging economies, is expected to drive the Asia Pacific market. The market is projected to grow rapidly in the Asia Pacific region, owing to the changing lifestyle of consumers in emerging economies including, China and India. The rising health consciousness among consumers and the presence of major players in North America is projected to positively drive the growth of the market over the forecast period.
The third production estimates for the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2020/21 season, released by Fundecitrus on Wednesday, February 10, indicates that orange supply should total 269.01 million boxes of 40.8-kilograms each. This volume is 6.52 % lower than that initially estimated and 30.45 % below that in the previous season. This is also the worst annual decrease in all times.
As low supply has been confirmed, orange prices continue firm in the Brazilian market. According to Fundecitrus estimates, 81 % of the fruits had been harvested up to mid-January. The harvesting of pear oranges has reached 82 % of the volume forecast, and for the late varieties (valencia, folha murcha and natal), 75 %.
According to Fundecitrus, the biennial production cycle and the unfavorable weather (drought and high temperatures) in the second semester of 2019 (flowering) and 2020 (fruit-filling stage) led to the current crop failure. The report from Fundecitrus also points that, although rainfall was higher in the citrus belt in December 2020 (8 % up from the average), it was lower, irregular and short in January, due to the La Niña phenomenon.
Thus, the average weight of the oranges harvested was lower – usually, 261 fruits fill up a box, meaning that each orange should weight 156 grams, 8 % down from the average of the last five crops.
PRODUCTIVITY – Low productivity this season has been majorly linked to late varieties and pear oranges. Thus, with lower volumes, the demand from processors continues high, which is controlling both supply and prices in the first months of 2021.
PRICES – In the market of tahiti lime, supply was high in the first fortnight of February, due to the peak of harvest, however, sales were firm. According to Cepea collaborators, the increase of crushing was leading agents from processors to search for fruits in the in natura market, pushing up quotes in São Paulo. It is important to highlight that the supply of lower quality fruits is high, which is discouraging exports.
On the other hand, orange prices were fading in the first half of the February. Despite the beginning of the month (when workers’ wages are paid) and the low supply of high-quality fruits, low demand was limiting sales. Farmers expect demand to increase when the first oranges harvested are available, since their quality should be higher – however, this is forecast for mid-March only.
Price averages of all orange varieties were firm in January in São Paulo state and may continue high in February. The lower production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2020/21 season and difficulties to harvest in some areas, due to rains, underpinned values. Moreover, the supply of high-quality orange was low – most fruits available in January had characteristics unwanted by consumers, such as large size and thick peel.
In January/21, pera rio orange quotes averaged 39.06 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 27.9 % up compared to January/20, but a decrease of 3.6 % in relation to December/20, in nominal terms. As for lima orange, the average was 73.85 BRL/box, 101 % up in the annual comparison, but 8.6 % lower in relation to December/20. Natal orange values averaged 35.07 BRL per box (+29.9 % in one year, but -3.4 % compared to the month before).
Values may continue at high levels to citrus growers in February, mainly for high-quality fruits in the in natura market. The loss of fruitlets and the low rate of established flowers last year that now result in a limited volume of out-of-season oranges favor this scenario. As for the demand, it can increase in February because of high temperatures.
As for the first oranges harvested in the 2021/22 season in Jales, where major flowerings are advanced, they can be available from March onwards. However, due to the dry weather in the second semester of 2020 and the consequent low rate of flowers established, the volume may not be very high.
TAHITI LIME – The peak season in São Paulo continued to press down tahiti lime prices in late January. However, producers reported problems brought by hot weather and rains, which can increase the allocation of fruits to crushing activities and limit the supply in the in natura market.
Oranges
Global orange production for 2020/21 is forecast to rise 3.6 million metric tons (tons) from the previous year to 49.4 million as favorable weather leads to larger crops in Brazil and Mexico, offsetting declines in Turkey and the United States. Consequently, consumption, fruit for processing, and fresh exports are also forecast higher. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/citrus.pdf
After the low production in the 2020/21 season, agents expect a limited orange crop in 2021/22 in São Paulo State and the Triângulo Mineiro, due to unfavorable weather conditions. This scenario tends to underpin orange prices in 2021.
The first estimates for the 2021/22 crop, released by the USDA in December/2020, indicate that the harvest in SP and the Triângulo Mineiro should total 315 million boxes of 40.8-kilos each, 17 % up from that in the previous season. Despite this recovery, this volume does not mean the productive potential of crops will be recovered because of the bad weather conditions in these regions.
Thus, a harvest of 315 million boxes is not high, and therefore may not be enough to totally offset orange juice inventories. On the other hand, it should favor farmers’ revenue for one more year, due to the firm industrial demand. It is worth to mention that these estimates may change, since it is still early to assess production, majorly this year. Fundecitrus should release estimates only in May 2021.
INVENTORIES – Data from CitrusBR indicate that initial inventories in the 2021/22 season may be from 240 to 280 thousand tons in July/21. Although this volume is not lower than the strategic level established, the small harvest in the 2021/22 season may limit the volume by the end of the season, in June 2022.
CONTRACTS WITH THE INDUSTRY – Deals for the new season have not been closed. As the volume produced is still uncertain, reasonable prices cannot be fixed either. Besides, in the 2020/21 season, many processors closed deals for the following crop. Thus, a higher volume of fruits from the coming season has already been sold. Still, prices are expected to be positive in this segment, since the demand from the industry should be high.
IN NATURA MARKET – Higher industrial demand should keep orange prices on the rise in the in natura market in 2021/22. As the 2021/22 crop is expected to be late again, the prices of early oranges should be favored, and quotes should be underpinned, since the pear orange crop may be late.
The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2020/21 is forecast at 415 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx), equal to 16.93 million metric tons (mmt), an increase of 14 percent relative to the current season. The forecast assumes normal weather conditions will prevail as of mid-December 2020 to support fruit setting and development of the second blossoming in the Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais commercial citrus belt. The current orange crop estimate in the Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais citrus belt was revised downward from 287.8 to 269.4 MBx (11.74 mmt to 10.99 mmt) as a consequence of the lack of rain fall and high temperatures between September and October. Total Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent exports for MY 2020/21 are forecast at 1.08 mmt, similar to revised figure for MY 2019/20 …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
In general, citrus prices were high in São Paulo State in 2020. With the lower orange production in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2020/21 season due to bad weather conditions, the demand from processors for fruits continued high along the year, which underpinned prices.
According to a report released by Fundecitrus on December 10, crop failure in the citrus belt (SP and the Triângulo Mineiro) should be the worst since 1988/1989, when the series began. In total, orange production should be 30 % lower in the 2020/21 season, totaling 269.36 million boxes of 40.8 kilos each.
INDUSTRIAL PRICES – Although processors began the 2020/21 season with high volumes of juice stocked – 471 thousand tons of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent, according to CitrusBR –, low orange supply kept the demand for fruits high, which reflects on bidding prices.
On the average of the 2020/21 season, prices in the spot market between July and November closed at 23.51 BRL/box, 17.8 % up from that in the same period of 2019 and 7 % above that in the same period of 2018, in nominal terms.
IN NATURA MARKET – Higher demand from the industry lowered the availability of fruits in the in natura market, since some farmers who usually sell to the in natura market preferred to allocate their fruits to processors, due to the uncertainties caused by the covid-19 pandemic and the attractive prices bid by processors. This scenario added to the weather issues and high demand pushed up orange prices (in natura) all the year. For the variety pera rio, prices hit the highest level of the year in November, when the average was 43.35 BRL/box, on tree, 54.6 % up from that in Nov/19, in nominal terms.
