All Oranges 11.6 Million Boxes
The 2024-2025 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is unchanged at 11.6 million boxes. If realised, this will be 36 percent less than last season’s revised production. The forecast consists of 4.60 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.00 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the complete forecast here.
As processing companies reduced the pace of activities of oranges in early April, part of units was then focused on crushing the tahiti lime. According to players surveyed by Cepea, this scenario helps to flow non-standard fruits to processing activities, reducing the volume in the in natura market.
Due to the higher demand from the industry, quotations were firm. In the first three months of 2025, prices paid by the industry for the tahiti lime averaged BRL 25.06 per 40.8-kg box, 55 % above that in the same period last year and the highest considering the first quarter since 2019 (BRL 29.95/box), in real terms (IGP-DI March/25).
From April 7-10, the price average of the fruit delivered at the industry was at BRL 26.00 per box, upping 13.04 % compared to that verified in the last week of March. This scenario ends up keeping the price level close to BRL 30/box in the in natura market. Tahiti lime prices are at BRL 29.22 per 27.2-kg box between April 7 and 10, downing 2.2 % compared to the week before.
Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released its report of the 2024/25 season on April 10, indicating that the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) harvested 230.87 million 40.8-kg boxes, for a decrease of 0.65 % (or 1.51 million boxes) in relation to the first estimate (May/24), but upping 1.03 % (or 2.35 million boxes) compared to that projected in February/25. In relation to the previous crop, the decrease is by 24.85 %.
Pink, juicy, and sweet flesh, packed with nutrients, and sustainably produced: the organic Cara Cara orange is a fruit to discover.
Discovered in the 1970s in Venezuela as a spontaneous mutation of the Washington Navel, the Cara Cara orange quickly gained appreciation in the market for its qualities. Its juicy and sweet flesh, with slightly tangy notes that resemble cherry, are what make this citrus a standout in winter tables, supported by its significant health benefits: the pinkish color of the flesh, unlike other red oranges, is not due to the presence of anthocyanins but to lycopene, a powerful antioxidant beneficial for prevention and anti-aging. Lycopene, along with vitamins, high water content, and low calorie intake, makes this fruit a wellness ally.
Available from December to April, the organic Cara Cara orange is a perfect example of how a premium taste can go hand-in-hand with sustainability, allowing for careful production that protects biodiversity and the ecosystem. This is the commitment of the members of the AOP Vi.Va group, who, together with the European Union, are at the heart of the It’s Bio project, designed to support and spread the values of organic farming among consumers in Italy, Belgium, and Greece.
From a production standpoint, Italy is a global leader in citrus production, thanks to particularly suited regions, with Sicily and Calabria accounting for most of the total 86,000 hectares (Source: Ismea Mercati 2024). Nearly 40,000 hectares are cultivated organically, an impressive figure that places Italy in the global lead, especially considering that Mexico, the second-largest global producer, has dedicated only 12,570 hectares, according to TrueNumbers’ 2019 research.
Purchasing and consuming organic citrus helps producers and manufacturing companies continue to invest in this sector, crucial for protecting the environment and combating climate change. Organic farming, in this sense, is the main resource, even in terms of the market. More and more consumers are purchasing organic products for ethical, environmental, and health reasons, as shown by the 2024 Image Observatory findings, which highlight a value of 3.8 billion euros in purchases in large-scale distribution (GDO), with a value increase of +5.2% compared to 2022 (the highest growth rate in recent years), while volumes remained unchanged.
It’s Bio is a project funded by the European Union and the AOP Vi.Va. Group, with the participation of Almaverde Bio, Apofruit, Codma OP, Ca’ Nova, Coop Sole, AOP La Mongolfiera, OrtoRomi, and OP Terre di Bari.
Regular rains and mild weather were registered in late October in the citrus belt of São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro, the biggest orange producer for the juice industry. This scenario has helped to bring a relief for trees that were affected by the lack of rains and high temperatures.
2024/25 season
Even with the return of rainfall, the current orange crop has presented low quality. Still, rains in October may improve the quality of fruits that are still on the trees. It is worth noting that the orange crop has started in June this year and may finish between December and January/25. As for tahiti lime (the main season starts between November and December), weather conditions may favor the development, since fruits are currently below the standard.
Exports
The revenue obtained by Brazilian exporters with orange juice shipments in the partial of the 2024/25 crop (from July/24 to September/24) totaled USD 905.3 million, for an increase of 42.3 % compared to the same period of the last season (USD 636.1 million), according to Comex Stat.
The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil, in turn, continues decreasing, as it has been verified since the 2023/24 crop. From July to September/24, Brazil shipped 207.5 thousand tons of orange juice, downing 27 % in relation to the same period in 2023.
The lower volume exported is linked to the limited supply. Weather adversities have been hampering the production for five consecutive seasons, which resulted in restricted inventories of juice.
All oranges 15.0 million boxes
The 2024-2025 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 15.0 million boxes, down 16 percent from last season’s final production. The total includes 6.00 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 9.00 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The Navel orange forecast, at 190,000 boxes, accounts for 3 percent of the non-Valencia total.
The estimated number of bearing trees for all oranges is 30.3 million. Trees planted in 2021 and earlier are considered bearing for this season. Field work for the latest Commercial Citrus Inventory was completed in June 2024. Attrition rates were applied to the results to determine the number of bearing trees used to weigh and expand objective count data in the forecast model.
An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Results of the annual Commercial Citrus Inventory show total citrus acreage is 274,705 acres, down 17 percent from the last annual survey. The net loss of 57,551 acres is 14,505 acres more than what was lost the previous season. New plantings at 4,751 acres are down from the previous season.
All 23 published counties included in the table on page 3 showed decreases in acreage. Hendry County lost the most acreage, down 12,374 acres from the previous season. Polk County leads in citrus acreage with 58,516 acres, followed by Desoto County at 51,800 acres.
Orange acreage is now at 248,028 acres, down 18 percent from the previous season. Valencia acreage now accounts for 63 percent of the total orange acreage, non-Valencia acreage represents 35 percent, and the remaining orange acreage is unidentified …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Most part of São Paulo state registered high temperatures in early September. This scenario brought concerns for citrus growers, who may face another year of significant heat waves.
Climatempo says that heat waves in September have become more common in most part of Brazil; however, they have been more intense and are lasting longer.
2024/25 CROP – São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro may harvest 215.78 million 40.8-kg boxes in the 2024/25 orange season, according to data released by Fundecitrus on September 10. The volume may be 30 % less than in the crop before, which registered average production, and below the first projection, of 232.38 million boxes.
The decrease is related to the smaller fruit size, due to the dry and warm weather. The weather also accelerated the harvesting pace, since it influenced the ripening. More than half of the crop can be harvested in this dry weather scenario because rains are forecast only for late September.
The volume of rainfall was small in almost all areas in the citrus belt, except in the southwestern region of São Paulo. Fundecitrus indicates that the only area where the production is expected to increase in this season is the southwest of SP – the harvest may be 19 % higher than in 2023/24. In other regions, the production decrease can be between 28 % and 60 %.
Data released by the USDA in late July reinforced the scenario of limited world supply for the 2023/24 orange season (or 2024/25 in the Southern Hemisphere). Despite the slight increase in the production estimate compared to the crop before, the total volume may continue at historical low levels. Moreover, the decrease in Brazil, major global producer of both orange and juice, may not be counterbalanced by other suppliers.
The USDA indicates that the 2023/24 world crop is projected at 47.4 million tons, upping 1 % compared to the season before. In Brazil, the output may decrease 1.2 %, to 15.3 million tons – equivalent to 375 million 40.8-kg boxes. However, the decrease indicated by the USDA might be underestimated. In São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro, the production is likely to drop 24.4 %, according to Fundecitrus, and there are doubts whether a possible increase in other states would compensate the low volume produced in the citrus belt.
Orange juice
In spite of the slight rise in the global orange production, the orange juice output is projected at 1.5 million tons, 3 % down against the season before. The decrease is related to the lower availability of fruits to process in Brazil, which represents more than 70 % of the global OJ production.
The Brazilian output is calculated at 1.1 million tons, downing 9 %, and national exports are likely to decrease in the same intensity, since almost 100 % of the Brazilian production is sent to the international market.
Tahiti lime
The global production of lemons and limes in 2023/24 is estimated to move up 2 %, reaching 10.1 million tons, boosted by the higher output in the European Union and in Turkey.
It is worth noting that these numbers consider lemons (Sicilian, for instance) and limes (such as the tahiti lime). Among major producing countries, only Mexico produces significant volumes of tahiti lime (which is produced and exported by Brazil). Mexican shipments are likely to reduce 7.5 %, which can keep the focus of this country on supplying the US, opening more room for the Brazilian tahiti lime in the European market – Brazil has been hitting records in exports year after year.
Oranges
Global orange production for 2023/24 is estimated to rise 1 percent to 47.4 million tons as lower production in Brazil and the European Union is more than offset by larger crops in Egypt, the United States, and Turkey. Consumption and fruit for processing are both up with production while exports are flat.
U.S. production is estimated to rise 8 percent to 2.5 million tons on higher yields due to favorable weather. Consumption, imports, and exports are flat, while oranges for processing are up with the increase in supplies.
Brazil production is estimated down slightly to 15.3 million. Lower yields are expected, primarily due to poor weather conditions that contributed to drought, as well as some impacts from greening. Consumption and fruit for processing are estimated down with the reduced supplies …
Please download the full report: www.nass.usda.gov
After weeks of dry weather, rains were registered in many citrus areas in São Paulo state in mid-July. Although the volume of rainfall was not homogeneous among regions (rains were registered especially in the south and in the southwest of São Paulo state), it brought a certain relief for citrus growers, who were concerned with the dry weather that had already been affecting the trees.
The rainfall was more significant in the southwest of SP state; thus, flowers may start blossoming. In areas where rains were less abundant (or they were not registered), more humidity is necessary for the flowers to blossom.
As for the tahiti lime, the recent rainfall is not likely to increase the supply in this moment, but it may favor the harvest and the quality in the coming weeks.
Juice exports decrease in the 2023/24 season
Brazilian shipments of orange juice dropped in the 2023/24 season (from July 2023 to June 2024), after increasing in the previous crop. Brazil exported 1 million tons, downing 8.1 % compared to the season before (data from Comex Stat). The revenue totaled USD 2.7 billion, for an increase of 25 % in the same comparison. The export decrease is mainly related to the low volume of juice in stocks in Brazil.
Processing activities
The orange processing continues to move at a fast pace in São Paulo state. Some players from the industry surveyed by Cepea say that the crushing is more advanced this season, and that the processing activities of early varieties are likely to reduce this month. Last year, the processing finished only in the second fortnight of September; however, in 2024/25, activities are expected to end in July or in August.
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 18.0 million boxes. The total is comprised of 6.76 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties), unchanged from the June forecast, and 11.2 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up 100,000 boxes from the June forecast. The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production remains at 1.79 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 240,000 boxes are white, and 1.55 million boxes are the red varieties. The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast is unchanged at 450,000 boxes …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Due to the presence of greening (Huanglongbing) in São Paulo and to the recent imbalance between supply and demand for oranges, both producers and processors have been looking for options to increase the planted area in regions outside the citrus belt, without the phytosanitary risks in SP. There have been reports of new plantings in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais (out of Triângulo Mineiro) and Goiás, areas that are not typical citrus producers.
Investments are indeed not recommended depending on the region of São Paulo state, although major processing units are located there. Many areas have high incidence of greening, which hinders new plantings. According to data from Fundecitrus, 38 % of the trees in the citrus belt had symptoms of the disease in 2023, the sixth year in a row of greening increase. It is worth noting that new plants tend to be more vulnerable to the disease, increasing costs with prevention and chances of infection.
Therefore, plantings outside SP are an option. The land availability is higher, reducing costs, and there is the absence of greening and other diseases. Moreover, the industrial productivity can be higher than in SP, due to the warmer weather, which is positive for processing companies.
On the other hand, the fact that the areas are unknown for the citrus activity concerns players, since this scenario would demand adjustments in management and irrigation, which cannot be necessarily the same as those verified in SP.
Although these regions are warmer than SP (which can favor the productivity), it tends to affect the development of the trees. Additionally, costs with freight can be higher because of logistical issues.
It is worth noting that these investments in other regions are new and, therefore, they may not affect the orange supply in the short-term – it can be verified in roughly three years, when plants start producing.
Market
The supply of citrus fruits in the in natura market in São Paulo may be low in July. As for oranges, the lower availability has been verified since the middle of last year and it is also attributed to the high demand from the industry – it is worth noting that juice stocks at processing companies may finish the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) at low levels.
Players surveyed by Cepea say that even producers who typically sell to the in natura market are focusing on sending the product to the industry this season, since prices are more attractive and there are some advantages compared to the in natura market.
After two months of price drops, orange values are expected to increase again in the in natura market in June. Processing activities are likely to be intensified, since more companies have started to operate, limiting the supply of fruits in the in natura market. Players say that, although the demand is usually lower in this period, since the weather is colder, the supply in the in natura market is expected to be smaller than the demand.
Orange prices already increased in the second fortnight of May, after the release of estimates of a lower output by Fundecitrus. Thus, many producers stopped harvesting fruits for the in natura market, preferring to meet the demand from the industry.
In May, the average for the pear orange was BRL 80.22 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, downing 11.21 % in relation to April/24.
Although prices dropped from April to May, they are still at high levels. In addition to the forecast of a small crop, low stocks of orange juice have been boosting the industrial demand for fruits.
Tahiti lime
The supply is expected to continue limited in June, due to the below-average volume of rainfall. Colder temperatures have concerned producers, since this scenario may result in characteristics that purchasers disapprove, especially in the international market. In May, the price average was at BRL 32.62 per 27-kilo box, harvested, 18.96% up compared to April.
Ponkan tangerine
Prices may move up in June, especially from the second fortnight on, when the supply in São Paulo tends to decrease. Moreover, the fruit can be a good alternative for orange and other fruits, which are presenting higher quotations. On the other hand, the demand is likely to decrease due to the cold weather, limiting more significant price rises.
Pear orange prices in the in natura market hit a new record in February, considering Cepea historical series, which has started in October 1994 – values were deflated by IGP-DI December/23. Quotations are likely to continue at high levels in March, since the volume of early varieties in the spot market in São Paulo is still small.
In February, pear orange prices averaged BRL 87.40 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 9.29 % up compared to January/24 and an increase of 83 % in relation to February/23 (in this case, in nominal terms). Price rises are linked to the lower supply in this offseason period, while the supply of late and early varieties is also limited. It is worth noting that the firm industrial demand reduced even more the fruit availability in the domestic market during the entire season.
TAHITI LIME – Prices have started February in a downward trend; however, they rose during the month, leading to an increase of the monthly average. Although it is the peak season, frequent rains limited the harvest and, consequently, the supply. Moreover, weather conditions have been favoring the fruit quality.
In this scenario, the tahiti lime price average in the in natura market was BRL 20.11 per 27-kg box (harvested) in February, moving up 46.36 % and 104 % in relation to January/24 and February/23, respectively, in nominal terms.
Values are likely to remain firm in March because of the lower volume that will be harvested. Moreover, exports may increase, especially due to the proximity of Easter, which can influence to flow the product.
After the return of rains in São Paulo, orange producers surveyed by Cepea said that flowers have been blossoming since early February in some areas, and they may refer to out-of-season fruits.
In general, players say that the volume of fruits originated from these flowers may not be high, which can be insufficient to compensate the fruitlet abortion verified in the last quarter of 2023. These new flowers bring a positive expectation, since the remuneration of oranges in the next season is expected to be good.
The orange supply was very limited in the in natura market in São Paulo in mid-February, since it is considered the offseason period. Therefore, the market has been supplied mainly by out-of-the-season pear oranges and remaining volumes of late fruits. However, some producers were already harvesting early varieties (especially hamlin and westin), in order to increase the supply.
Fundecitrus has released the third update on the 2023/24 orange crop in the citrus belt in São Paulo and Triângulo/Sudoeste Mineiro, keeping the projection of 307.22 million 40.8-kilo boxes, stable compared to the previous report, but downing 0.7 % in relation to the initial forecast and 2.2 % against the 2022/23 season.
All Oranges 19.8 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 19.8 million boxes, down 700,000 boxes from the January forecast. If realised, this will be 25 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 6.80 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Pear orange prices have been moving up since the beginning of the 2023/24 season in the in natura market. In January, values hit the record of Cepea series, which has started in 1994. In the first month of 2024, the price average was BRL 78.89 per 40.8-kilo box, moving up 16% compared to December/23 and 90% in relation to January/23, in real terms (values were deflated by IGP-DI Dec/23). Up until January/24, the highest value in real terms had been BRL 74.92/box, in November 1994.
This scenario of high prices is related to the limited supply. The production in the current crop is on average; however, low orange juice stocks increase the need to buy the raw material, reducing the orange supply in the in natura market.
As for the demand, players surveyed by Cepea say that it is firm, since temperatures are high, favoring the consumption of the fruit.
The pear orange supply is expected to continue limited in February, which is still considered offseason.
Industry
Prices for pear orange and late varieties for the industry had hit a real record in November. Since then, they have been renewing the record level of Cepea series, which has started in 1994. However, values are now moving down, considering the closing of new trades.
The price average for pear orange and late varieties for the industry was BRL 57.68 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered, in January, increasing 10% against the month before and 76% in relation to January 2023, in real terms.
Tahiti lime
Prices finished January at low levels, due to the peak season. The price average in January 2024 was BRL 13.56 per 27-kg box (harvested), for a decrease of 28% compared to the last month of 2023.
The tahiti lime supply is expected to continue high in February, due to rains in January, which can favor both the fruit development and the quality.
In 2024, orange prices paid to citrus growers in São Paulo/Triângulo Mineiro may remain at high levels. The supply may continue to be lower than the industrial demand, keeping the availability limited in the in natura market.
So far, there are no solid aspects that allow to project the volume that will be harvested in the 2024/25 season; however, the orange juice supply may not be enough to meet the demand, especially because of the expectation of low juice stocks in June 2024.
CitrusBR says that the volume in stocks by the end of the 2022/23 season (in June/23) was only 84.745 thousand tons equivalent to concentrate juice. Cepea calculations based on the orange production forecast by Fundecitrus indicate that the volume in stocks by the end of the current season (2023/24, in June/24) may not be higher. This scenario may be reinforced in case exports continue intense and the productivity remains below-average.
Therefore, it would be important if the orange volume harvested in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro is above the average over the last years in order for the processed volume to meet exports and allow a recovery in stocks by June 2025. However, challenges faced in the second semester of 2023 (greening and heat waves) may bring difficulties for a good harvest in 2024/25.
It is worth noting that Brazil does not have major competitors regarding the global orange juice supply. Mexico, an important supplier for the US market, has been facing difficulties in the production, especially because of the dry weather, while Florida has been facing the impacts of greening. In this scenario, a decrease in the Brazilian availability might affect the world orange juice supply.
Investments
Although the profitability scenario had been positive in 2023, major investments in São Paulo are not expected for 2024, due to the high incidence of greening. The planting can continue firm in Triângulo Mineiro, but the availability of soil and water for irrigation are limited.
2023 was a very positive year for the citrus activity in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro concerning prices received by citrus farmers. Orange values were at firm levels during the year in both the in natura market and at the industry – in this segment, quotations hit record levels in real terms, allowing a year of good profitability.
This scenario is explained by the lower supply compared to the demand, despite the fact that the 2023/24 production is on average. Orange juice stocks started the season at low levels, and there was the need to purchase the raw material in order to prevent a significant decrease of stocks at the end of the current season. Moreover, the orange juice demand is firm in the international market, especially from the US, country that has been registering limited production for years due to greening (HLB) impacts.
In November, prices of orange to the industry hit real records, considering Cepea historical series, which has started in October 1994 (monthly values were deflated by IGP-DI October/23).
Orange production
The 2023/24 orange season in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro may decrease 2.2 % compared to the previous, according to Fundecitrus. The total volume is forecast at 307.22 million boxes, 0.7 % smaller in relation to the first estimate, released in May.
The decrease is related to above-average rains, which increased the incidence of blossom-end rot, to the negative biennial cycle (except in the north), the lower volume of flowers verified in some late variety trees and to the intensity of greening.
It is important to mention that this volume is below the need of the industry to meet the international demand and increase juice stocks, which are very low. According to CitrusBR, the volume in stocks hit the lowest level in 12 years, totaling only 84.745 thousand tons of volume equivalent to concentrate juice by the end of the 2022/23 season (June/23), downing 40.7 % compared to the previous crop. These critical numbers arise serious concerns about the global orange juice supply.
All Oranges 20.5 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 20.5 million boxes, unchanged from the October forecast. If realised, this will be 30 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 7.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Total forecast production of oranges1 updated to 307.22 million boxes
The second forecast for the 2023-2024 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP, and FCAV/Unesp2, is 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. Of this total estimated production, approximately 27.60 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region.
In this update, the initial projection is reduced by 2.12 million boxes, corresponding to 0.7 %. This adjustment reflects the balance considering all varieties. The oranges from early varieties, already harvested almost entirely, benefited from abundant rains at the beginning of the year, resulting in a production exceeding the estimated 2.27 million boxes …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
The combination of low orange supply and firm demand over the last weeks, due to high temperatures, has been keeping prices on the rise in both the in natura market and at the industry.
Orange prices have been hitting records in both segments – as for fruits to the industry, the current average is a real record, considering the Cepea series, which started in October 1994 (monthly prices were deflated by IGP-DI October). Even with an average crop, orange juice stocks at processing companies are low, resulting in a fruit supply that is lower than the demand.
In November, pear oranges are traded in the in natura market at BRL 58.90 per box, 45.9 % higher than in November last year (in real terms) and the highest of Cepea series, in nominal terms. In real terms, the current average is the highest since March 2019 and the fourth biggest considering the months of November.
Prices for pear orange and late varieties sent to the industry, in turn, have averaged BRL 49.04 per box in November, soaring 60.3 % compared to November/22, in real terms, and the highest of the series.
The supply in Brazil is expected to be lower than the demand at least until the end of the crop. The following season can still register a limited availability, considering that current OJ stocks may not recover at the end of the 2023/24 crop. In case the 2024/25 season continues on the average, stocks may present a new decrease. Therefore, if the crop is below-average, the situation can be critical.
The new heat wave in São Paulo state has been concerning citrus growers. Temperatures are higher than those registered in the last wave, in September, and lasting longer. Thus, many producers say that the weather may affect the 2024/25 production, but it is still early to estimate possible impacts.
Up until mid-November, high temperatures have been affecting areas with fruitlets. It is worth noting that, in the heat wave observed in September, areas with fruitlets (which had registered flowers in August) were the most affected, since weather conditions have caused fruitlets to fall.
Areas with late flowers (verified in less than 30 days) may also be damaged by the hot weather – these flowers blossomed earlier and the development stage is more advanced. Moreover, citrus growers indicate possible impacts on bigger fruits, especially in trees with high incidence of greening, with less leaves and/or in bad nutrition.
In irrigated areas, in turn, damages tend to be mitigated, since flowers are in a more advanced stage. However, these areas are located in the north of São Paulo state, where temperatures are usually higher.
As for 2023/24 oranges, players surveyed by Cepea report impacts on the quality. Many fruits are withered and sunburned, and consumers usually do not want to buy fruits with these conditions – in many cases, it is necessary to accelerate the harvest in order to avoid the premature fruit fall.
TAHITI LIME – The heat wave has also been affecting the tahiti lime. As rains have not been frequent in major producing regions, the supply has not increased in a significant way, and most fruits are small.
Despite the smaller size, producers have been harvesting fruits in order to take advantage of high prices and to avoid that the hot weather affects the quality even more.
All Oranges 20.5 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is carried forward from October at 20.5 million boxes, up 30 percent from last season’s final production. The total includes 7.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The Navel orange forecast, at 300,000 boxes, accounts for 4 percent of the non-Valencia total …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Regular rains registered in tahiti lime producing areas since mid-September have been gradually increasing the supply of this fruit. Thus, the tahiti lime supply in October was slightly higher and it may increase more in November. The peak season is expected in December.
Due to the increasing supply, players surveyed by Cepea expect tahiti lime prices to move down in November, decreasing even more from December on.
In October, the tahiti lime was traded at BRL 68.92 per 27-kg box (harvested) in São Paulo state, downing 4.1 % in relation to September/23 and a decrease of 17.4 % compared to October/22, in nominal terms.
Orange
The season of late varieties was intensified in mid-October, and valência was the variety that was most offered, but volumes of natal oranges were also available in the market. The amount of these fruits is expected to increase significantly in November, taking part of pear orange share and increasing its importance in the juice industry. As for pear oranges, the supply has been reducing. In October, the average price was BRL 52.44 per 40.8-kg box (on tree), 11.4 % above that in September.
All Oranges 20.5 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 20.5 million boxes, up 30 percent from last season’s final production. The total includes 7.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The Navel orange forecast, at 300,000 boxes, accounts for 4 percent of the non-Valencia total.
The estimated number of bearing trees for all oranges is 38.7 million. Trees planted in 2020 and earlier are considered bearing for this season. Field work for the latest Commercial Citrus Inventory was completed in June 2023. Attrition rates were applied to the results to determine the number of bearing trees used to weigh and expand objective count data in the forecast model.
An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Orange production is expected to be low in Florida for one more year. According to estimates from the USDA released on October 12th, the harvest of the 2023/24 crop in FL is forecast to total 20.5 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each, of which 7.5 million of early and mid-season varieties and 13 million, valência oranges.
Although that volume is considered low, it is still 30 % higher than that from last season, when two hurricanes hit Florida – Ian, in September 2022, and Nicole, in November 2022. Although hurricane Idalia hit Florida State in late August/23, damages were not that severe.
It is important to mention that this output is not enough to meet the demand from the US, thus, the country is expected to continue to import high amounts of orange juice – and Brazil is the major supplier of the commodity to them. This scenario becomes worse when the local inventories are considered, since they are decreasing year after year.
Brazilian market
Liquidity was high in the Brazilian orange market in the first fortnight of October, despite the holiday on the 12th (Day of Our Lady of Aparecida). According to Cepea collaborators, lower supply and higher demand underpinned prices. On the other hand, for tahiti lime, values dropped, influenced by lower demand and rising supply.
The second fortnight of September was marked by extremely high temperatures in São Paulo State. This scenario warned citrus growers, since intense heat may damage the oranges from both the current (2023/24) and the coming seasons (2024/25).
In the 2023/24 crop – which is currently being harvested –, the biggest problem has been wilted fruits, according to Cepea collaborators. This feature reduces both quality and remuneration, since the oranges become lighter because of the loss of water. On the other hand, for the industry, fruits quality rises slightly, due to higher yield and ºbrix.
On the other hand, for the coming season (24/25), although the effects of the hot weather from September are still uncertain, growers are concerned about fruitlet fall, which may be higher than the usual. This context could lead to a lower number of fruits per tree.
Also, the fact that many orchards have been affected by greening makes the situation worse. A survey from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) shows that 38.06 % of the trees in the citrus belt (São Paulo + Triângulo Mineiro) have had symptoms of the disease this year, 56 % above that from 2022 and the sixth consecutive year of increase in the incidence of greening.
Persistent unfavorable weather conditions are expected to have a significant impact on citrus production in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23. Post forecasts lemon production to decline by 10 percent from MY 2021/22 to 1.65 million metric tons (MMT). Orange production is projected to fall by 13 percent to 623,000 MT, and tangerine production is expected to decrease by 18 percent to 285,000 MT.
Lemon exports are expected to decline to 200,000 MT in MY 2022/23, due to lower production. Orange exports are projected to decrease slightly to 55,000 MT, and tangerine exports are estimated to decrease to 30,000 MT, both due to smaller production …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The Brazilian exports of orange juice increased in the 2022/23 season (July/22 – June/23), after fading for two consecutive seasons. According to data from Secex, Brazil exported 1.09 million tons of the product (Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice FCOJ Equivalent) in the 22/23 crop, 9 % up the volume shipped in the previous season. The revenue received from these shipments totaled USD 2.1 billion, a staggering 28 % up, in the same comparison.
Although the consumption of orange juice is not increasing in the major destinations of the Brazilian product – and despite the low national inventories –, the United States had higher import needs in the last years, due to the steep production decrease in Florida – mainly in the current season, 2022/23 –, which had been facing the effects of greening and was hit by hurricanes late last year.
According to Secex, the Brazilian exports of orange juice to the US have increased high this season, totaling 340.9 thousand tons, 69 % higher than the volume shipped in 2021/22. Revenue totaled USD 701.9 million, a staggering 93 % up, in the same comparison. As production is not expected to rise high in Florida in the short term, the US may continue with high imports needs, and Brazil is the number one supplier of orange juice in the world.
In a report released in June, Florida Citrus Department confirmed higher imports to the US: between Oct/22 and Apr/23, the country doubled the volume of FCOJ imported from Brazil compared to that in the previous season; of NFC (Not-From-Concentrate) orange juice, shipments rose 82 %.
EUROPEAN UNION – To the European Union, the number one destination of the Brazilian orange juice, exports totaled 569.6 thousand tons in the 2022/23 season, 8 % less than that shipped in the previous season. Revenue totaled USD 1.13 billion, 9 % up, in the same comparison.
The orange output in the citrus belt in southeastern Brazil (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2023/24 season is estimated at 309.34 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, according to data from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released on May 10th. This volume is 1.5 % lower than that harvested last season.
According to Fundecitrus, the major reasons for the lower harvest are rains above the historical average (although they have favoured both the vigor of trees and fruits growth, rains raised flower rotten), the negative biennial cycle (except for northern SP, where productivity was lower last season), lower blooming for some late varieties (whose harvesting was delayed and/or production was high in 2022/23) and the higher incidence of greening, which is expected to raise the rate of fruit fall. On the other hand, high moisture may favour fruits weight, which may be the highest since 2017/18.
As for productivity, the average forecast for the citrus belt is at 918 boxes per hectare, a slight 0.6 % up from that in the 2022/23 season.
Although the harvest expected in the citrus belt is within the average of the last 10 years, the needs of juice processors in SP for oranges is very high. Inventories are low, and the number of oranges to be available is not expected to be enough for stocks to recover.
Indeed, according to a report from CitrusBR released this month, the volume of juice stocked by the processors in SP in Dec/22 was 14.5 % lower than that in the same period of 2021. If this percentage continues stable until the end of the 2022/23 season (on June 30, 2023), ending stocks may total 122.3 thousand tons (juice equivalent), very low – maybe even insufficient – to meet the markets’ demand until the new season steps up.
Orange supply has been low in Brazil since early 2023. In April, the pear oranges available in the market were the ones that ripen out of the usual period. However, the ones that were harvested earlier are not well accepted by consumers in the table market, since they did not reach the ideal maturation stage.
Despite low supply, pear orange prices weakened, due to the arrival of early varieties, such as hamlin, westin and rubi, to the market. Last month, the average price for pear oranges closed at BRL 46.87 per 40.8-kg box (on tree), 3.08 % lower than that from March but still 11.56 % higher than that in April last year, in nominal terms.
As the availability of pear oranges is low, many farmers – majorly in northern SP – tried to anticipate the harvesting of early varieties, aiming to take advantage of the current firm prices and make cash flow during the inter-harvest.
Ponkan tangerine
The prices for ponkan tangerine dropped last month too. While in March, supply was low, in April, the harvesting stepped up. Still, availability was not that high. The average price for ponkan tangerine closed at BRL 64.07 per 27-kg box (on tree) in April, 8.56 % lower than that in March but 40.6 % up from that in April/22, in nominal terms.
Tahiti lime
Opposite to the scenarios observed in the markets of oranges and ponkan tangerine, for tahiti lime, prices are on the rise, boosted by low supply – as the peak of harvest took place in the first bimester of 2023, supply in lower now.
Orange production for the 2022-2023 crop season totaled 314.21 million boxes1
The 2022-2023 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 10, 2023 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is 314.21 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows …
Please download the complete crop update under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
The 2022/23 orange season in the citrus belt (São Paulo State and the Triângulo Mineiro) is ending, while the oranges from next season are still green. Thus, the volume of oranges being processed at the plants in SP has been low. Considering large-sized plants, only three of them were processing oranges in March. In the same period last year, the scenario was the same, while in 2021, only one plant was in operation, which confirms that industrial activity is still high for this time of the year.
However, one of these plants is forecast to end activities in April, since orange availability is low. So far, the prices paid by the industry in the spot market have been around BRL 38.00 per 40.8-kg box (harvested and delivered). Considering the oranges from the new season (2023/24), bids have been higher, at BRL 40/box, however, the farmers consulted by Cepea reported some deals at BRL 42/box.
Most of the oranges from the 23/24 season has been sold. Thus, the number of fruits available in the spot market in 2023/24 will be low. However, processors’ needs are high, since their juice inventories are low.
As for the oranges not purchased yet, agents from processors reported that farmers are not rushing to sell them, since quotations have been firm in the table market, which may lead them to send the ripen fruits to this segment. These fruits may also be sent to small-sized plants that produce whole juice, which continue to process fruits and are paying up to BRL 45/box. However, for the production of whole juice, quality requirements are usually higher.
Orange processing in the 2023/24 season is forecast to begin in mid-May at large-sized processors. However, only from June onwards the volume is expected to increase.
All oranges 16.1 million boxes
The 2022-2023 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 16.1 million boxes, increased 100,000 boxes from the February forecast. If realised, this will be 61 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 6.10 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 10.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
All Oranges 16.0 Million Boxes
The 2022-2023 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 16.0 million boxes, down 2.00 million boxes from the January forecast. If realised, this will be 61 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 6.00 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 10.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
All oranges 18.0 million boxes
The 2022-2023 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 18.0 million boxes, down 2.00 million from the December forecast. If realised, this will be 56 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 7.00 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 11.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The harvesting of late orange varieties began at a slow pace in mid-October. Although maturation was not ideal then, oranges were within the minimum standards required by the market, leading farmers to begin the harvesting.
The first variety available in the market was valência, followed by natal. Even the variety “folha murcha”, whose harvesting usually begins in December, arrived at the market in the first fortnight of November.
Agents expect supply (majorly of valência and natal oranges) to increase in the coming weeks, as the harvesting steps up in December – activities are forecast to end in mid-February. Also, the share of late varieties at juice processing plants is expected to gradually increase this month, accounting for the most part in December.
At juice processors, although quality standards (ratio and brix) are not within requirements, agents from the industry reported to be receiving late varieties – many of them blend these varieties with the juice from pear oranges without any quality loss. However, the supply of these varieties is still low because of difficulties to find labor for the harvesting.
Amid low rainfall in São Paulo State since the end of the Summer (in late March), farmers have been concerned about the effects of the current lack of moisture on orange trees. According to Inmet (Brazilian Institute of Meteorology), it has not rained in SP for 50 days, the longest drought since 2012. To make things worse, last month was the hottest July in SP in all times.
For the oranges still on tree (from the 2022/23 season), although major damages have not been reported, the drought is concerning. In dry-land groves, some fruits wilted, reducing both quality and size for the in natura market, making them only suitable to the industry. Besides, some oranges and leaves fell off due to high water stress.
Also, the effects of greening on oranges have increased this year in many Brazilian areas. It is important to consider that, according to Fundecitrus, last year, greening affected 22.37 % of the orange trees in SP, the highest average.
On the other hand, the lack of rains is necessary to cause groves some water stress, which is crucial for blooming. According to Cepea collaborators, in northern SP, where groves are irrigated, many farmers began irrigating the plants in mid-June, and trees are now beginning to bloom. In these areas, conditions have been favourable so far. In dry-land groves, blooming is expected to occur as soon as it rains in the citrus belt.
BRAZILIAN MARKET IN JULY – The demand for citrus increased in Brazil in July, favoured by the atypical warm weather during the month. On the other hand, although the orange harvesting was in full swing in SP last month, industries’ purchases were high, which pushed up quotations.
Citrus Forecast
The 2021-2022 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 41.0 million boxes. The total is comprised of 18.3 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties), up slightly from the June forecast, and 22.7 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up 1 percent from the June forecast. The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production is up 1 percent at 3.33 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 500,000 boxes are white, and 2.83 million boxes are the red varieties. The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast remains at 750,000 boxes …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The 2022/23 harvesting of early fruits is advancing in São Paulo state. In this scenario, industrial processing activities are following the harvesting pace and requiring more fruits.
According to players from the industry, the ratio of early fruits has improved and practically all fruits have been allowed for delivery, both in the spot market or for contracts. The industrial yield, however, is still low, which is common at the beginning of the crop.
Crushing activities are now taking place in eight processors in São Paulo: Araraquara, Araras, Bebedouro, Catanduva, Colina, Conchal and two in Matão. The companies have already been receiving some volumes of pera orange, but the majority is early fruits – the pera orange availability tends to increase from mid-September onwards.
In the spot market, values are ranging from 27.00 and 28.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, harvested and delivered at the processor. As for contracts, quotations may hit 31.00 BRL per box in big companies. In small processing companies, values are at 35.00 BRL/box.
For marketing year (MY) 2021/22, Post revises its estimates for fresh lemon production to 1.90 million metric tons (MMT), up by 15 percent, due to favourable weather conditions. Fresh orange production is projected to increase to 920,000 metric tons (MT), and fresh tangerine production is expected to increase to 400,000 MT. Recent relatively favourable weather conditions for both sweet citrus fruits have allowed trees to recuperate from a stressful period characterised by drought followed by heavy rains. Lemon exports are projected to increase to 250,000 MT due to larger production, and sweet citrus exports are expected to increase slightly to 65,000 MT for tangerines and to 88,000 MT for oranges. Container availability shortages and higher fleet costs, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and global inflation, are impacting the activity of the Argentine citrus industry, increasing export costs by 100 percent.
Please download the full report: https://apps.fas.usda.gov
On 1 June 2022 World Citrus Organisation (WCO) members gathered for the organisation’s Annual General Meeting (AGM). During the AGM the WCO Secretariat presented the consolidation of the production and export forecasts for the forthcoming Southern Hemisphere citrus season 2022. This preliminary forecast is collected from member industry associations in Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Peru, South Africa, and Uruguay. Along with citrus market development updates, the meeting also saw the re-election of WCO’s current co-chairs for a second mandate. Both South Africa and Spain, represented by the Citrus Growers’ Association and Ailimpo, were re-elected to head the organisation for another two years.
During WCO’s AGM, the preliminary forecast for the upcoming Southern Hemisphere citrus season was presented to the representatives from the citrus sector. According to the forecast, which is based on information provided by industry associations in Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Peru, South Africa, and Uruguay, citrus production is expected to increase by 4.85% compared 2021 to reach 24,832,270 tonnes. Exports are also projected to increase to 4,140,547 tonnes, 4.91 % up from the previous season. Philippe Binard, WCO Secretary General, explained, “Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, a positive trend of consumers’ demand for fruit and vegetables was noted, in particular for citrus fruit, widely recognised for its high nutritional value, notably in terms of vitamin C content. The large volume available is positive news as it will meet this increased demand”. On the processing side, a total of 13,210,832 tonnes of citrus are expected to be destined to the juice market – an 8.32 % increase compared to 2021.
Orange production is forecasted to increase by 5.01 % compared to 2021, reaching 16,596,973 tonnes. Soft citrus production is expected to remain stable (-0.11 %, 3,044,652 tonnes in total). An 8.28 % growth is projected for lemon production (4,754,260 tonnes in total), while grapefruit production should decrease slightly (-0.58 % compared to 2021, down to 436,386 tonnes). Eric Imbert, CIRAD – Technical Secretariat of WCO, indicated, “The Southern Hemisphere citrus export continues to grow, especially lemons and easy peelers. The Southern Hemisphere today represents 27 % of the global citrus market”. Forecast information was followed by a review of the past season’s results and analysis of the estimations for the current season with a focus on ongoing market challenges, including rising costs and logistics disruptions.
WCO is led by a co-chairmanship of two country full members. Both South Africa and Spain, who have co- chaired the organisation since its inception, were re-elected to head the organisation for a second mandate of two years. South Africa is represented by the Citrus Growers’ Association under the guidance of Justin Chadwick and Spain is represented by Ailimpo under the helm of José Antonio Garcia Fernandez. WCO additionally welcomed new members, with the organisation’s membership now totalling 34 associations and companies.
As observed for other agricultural products, the production costs of citrus farming have increased sharply in Brazil, due to higher inputs prices, majorly fertilisers. This scenario is concerning farmers in Brazil, considering that citrus production was low in the two previous seasons, which resulted in higher costs per unit.
Even if productivity and production increase in the 2022/23 season – compared to that in 2020/21 and 2021/22, because of the slightly more favourable weather –, higher inputs prices are expected to limit a possible reduction in the production cost per unit. Thus, profit margins may be lower than the expected, despite orange valuations in 2022/23 – so far, the ceiling orange price is at BRL 32.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered to processing plant (considering only large-sized processors).
Tight profitability may continue to constrain investments in both crops’ renewal and replating, mainly because shorter-cycle crops, such as soybean crops, are currently more attractive and bring better opportunities to farmers.
Last year, after five consecutive years of stability, the area allocated to citrus farming shrank in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro (citrus belt), according to data from Fundecitrus, which may happen again in 2022.
Lower profit margins may also hamper adequate crop management in the citrus belt. Lower investments in crops’ renewal and replanting added to difficulties related to crop management may reduce orange production even more in the mid-term. Low supply may underpin prices, since the stocks of orange juice at the processing plants in SP are not high, and production needs to be higher for inventories to be replenished.
Citrus market
The domestic demand for oranges has not been high enough to raise prices. According to Cepea collaborators, many purchasers are trying to pay lower prices, putting farmers off selling oranges in the domestic market.
Brazilian citrus farmers claim that, if prices drop lower than the current levels, sales in the in natura market will become unviable. Currently, juice processors are bidding prices up to BRL 32/box (harvested and delivered). Although the values paid by processors include the harvesting and freight, the quality standard required by this segment and the risks of default are lower, making sales to the industry more attractive.
In this scenario, if the demand from processors continues high and prices, attractive, sales to the in natura market are expected to decrease, at least during the Winter and the beginning of Spring, when supply increases, while demand decreases. Also, most oranges have not reached the ideal maturation stage yet, allowing farmers to wait and sell the oranges when the processing activities in the 2022/23 season begin, forecast to late May/early June.
The harvesting of early oranges is expected to advance in May, which may raise supply and press down quotations. In general, availability has been growing since mid-April, weakening prices.
In April (until April 28th), the average price for pear oranges closed at BRL 42.10 per 40.8-kilo box (on tree), a slight 4.96 % down from that in March (BRL 43.00/box). Before that, values had increased for two months.
On the other hand, for early oranges, quotations were firm in April – the average price for rubi oranges closed at BRL 35.71/box, 3.63 % higher than that in March. As the values for this group of oranges have been lower than that for pear oranges, the competitiveness of early oranges has increased.
For the coming weeks, if prices drop, sales tend to increase, since demand may be higher. However, if values decrease too steeply, farmers may reduce the harvesting, since the oranges on tree have not reached the ideal maturation stage yet. Thus, citrus farmers may prefer to wait for the beginning of activities at processing plants. The industry’s purchase proposals for the oranges from the 2022/23 season have been up to BRL 32.00/box (harvested and delivered).
Although two plants of the large-sized processors were processing oranges in late April, activities were slow because of low supply. By the end of last month, only one plant was purchasing early oranges (as long as ratio is near or higher than 14).
The weather has been favouring the development of the 2022/23 orange crop. In general, frequent rainfall (since mid-October 2021) is helping the oranges to grow bigger and, thus, agents expect productivity to recover from the two previous seasons, when the volume harvested was low.
According to Cepea collaborators, the general scenario has been more favourable this year. Although the first blooming was late in some orchards (in mid-September in irrigated orchards and in October in dry land, after the return or rains), the number of flowers was considered positive, complemented by other blooming in the following months. Besides, the fruits set rate was high, favoured by rains followed by sunny days most of the time.
It is important to highlight that the damages caused by the long drought in the last two years (and frosts in some areas last Winter) were not completely offset, however, orange trees are currently more vigorous, leading agents to believe that productivity will be higher this season. Still, agents have distinct estimates about the harvest: some, who are more pessimistic, expect 300 million boxes to be harvested, while others, more optimistic, believe it will hit 350 million boxes. However, most of them expect something between 300 and 350 million boxes.
The only available estimates were released by the USDA in December, indicating the crop in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro to total 305 million boxes (15.5 % higher than that in 2021/22). Agents are waiting for Fundecitrus’s estimates, to be released in May.
It is worth to mention that, despite the production increase, orange supply is expected to be tight in the 2022/23 season, due to the high demand from processors to replenish juice stocks – which are forecast at 127 thousand tons by the end of the 2021/22 season, in June 2022, according to estimates from CitrusBR. Still according to CitrusBR, this volume will not be enough to meet the world demand until the new season steps up.
In that scenario, even if the volume produced is near the expected by the more optimistic, there should not be an orange surplus, which justifies the high prices bid by processors for 2022/23.
This scenario may also limit supply in the in natura market along the season, however, this would not ensure higher prices, since the purchase power of many consumers in Brazil is weak because of the current high inflation and the national economic scenario.
All Oranges 41.2 Million Boxes
The 2021-2022 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 41.2 million boxes, down
2.30 million boxes from the February forecast. If realized, this will be 22 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 18.2 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 23.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
In late February, the large-sized processors in São Paulo made their first purchase proposals for the oranges from the 2022/23 crop. Of the three companies in the state, two of them are interested in closing deals, bidding from BRL 30 – BRL 32.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered. The third processing plant was only renewing existing contracts. However, the number of deals closed is still low, since farmers expect prices to rise higher, due to both firm demand from the industry and, largely, higher production costs.
Indeed, data recently released by CitrusBR show that the volume of orange juice stocked by the end of the current season (in June 2022) will not be enough to supply the international market until the middle of next season. According to CitrusBR, ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent in the 2021/22 season are expected to total 126.574 thousand tons – possibly ranging between 115 and 135 thousand tons. It is important to mention that previous estimates (from September 2021) pointed to stocks between 170 and 190 thousand tons, but bad weather conditions (drought and frosts) reduced processing and hampered fruits development and ripening (influencing industrial yield).
If CitrusBR’s forecasts are confirmed, the volume stocked is expected to be much lower than the strategic level, of 250 thousand tons, scenario that may be observed at least until the end of the 2022/23 season (in June 2023) if the number of oranges produced is not high.
Cepea calculations show that, for stocks to surpass the strategic level by the end of next season, the number of boxes harvested in the citrus belt in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro needs to be over 340 million – and of this total, 300 million need to be allocated to the industry. For these results were considered sales of a million tons (slightly lower than the average) and the average industrial yield of the past five crops.
Although it seems juice supply in Brazil will be tight for at least one more season, agents from processors have not reported any significant valuations for the commodity yet. This would be the major reason why bids for the new season have not been higher. On Feb. 23, the May contract at ICE Futures closed at USD 1,993/ton, 2 % down from that on December 30. However, it is important to mention that values at ICE Futures do not reflect real sales prices of processing plants.
One of the facts that may be constraining juice valuations abroad is the fear of bottling plants as for the negative effects of higher prices in Brazil. In the major destinations for the Brazilian orange juice, the United States and the European Union, demand for the product has been fading for some years, majorly because of the wide variety of other beverages, such as flavoured water, energy drinks and other types of juice, for instance.
All Oranges 43.5 Million Boxes
The 2021-2022 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 43.5 million boxes, down 2 percent from the January forecast. If realized, this will be 18 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 17.5 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 26.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Orange prices increased in the Brazilian in natura market in the first fortnight of February. According to Cepea collaborators, frequent rains in the citrus belt (São Paulo State) favoured the quality (majorly the size) of oranges, making them suitable for sale in the in natura segment and allowing farmers to raise asking prices. Besides, rainfall also hampered the harvesting, limiting supply. In that scenario, values remained firm.
Usually, orange availability is not high in February – a month that may even be considered offseason –, however, as the 2021/22 season is late, supply is currently higher. Still, there is not an orange surplus in the domestic market, since processing at industries has been faster than usual this month.
So far, the number of early varieties to be harvested is not high – activities are expected to step up only from March onwards. However, supply may be constrained by the low flower set in the first blooming. Thus, the oranges currently available in the in natura market are mostly late varieties and pear oranges out of the ideal period.
TAHITI LIME – The production of tahiti lime is also being favoured by rains, however, farmers reported difficulties to harvest the fruits, which underpinned prices in the first fortnight of February, although it is currently the peak of harvest for tahiti lime in Brazil.
Despite the recent valuations for oranges and tahiti lime, Cepea collaborators have reported that the current economic scenario in Brazil is still constraining higher price rises. With high unemployment and inflation rates and lower income, the purchase power of many consumers is weak.
ESTIMATES – Although rains have favoured the quality of part of the fruits in orchards, they have not been enough to reverse all the damages caused by the drought to the oranges from the 2021/22 season.
According to data from Fundecitrus released on Feb. 10, the orange output (São Paulo + Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2021/22 season is still estimated at 264.14 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms, the same as that estimated in December, but 10 % below that forecast at the beginning of the season.
According to Somar/Climatempo (weather forecast agency), rainfall in SP between May/21 and Jan/22 was 25 % below the average for the period. In the Triângulo Mineiro, rains were 5 % higher than the average. Thus, orange growth was hampered, and the average fruit weight decreased. However, it is important to consider that the oranges harvested in February and in March 2022 are expected to be slightly larger, since they have been favoured by recent rains.
The volume harvested is still enough to replenish ending stocks at the processing plants in SP. According to CitrusBR, by the end of the 2021/22 season (in June 2022), the volume of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (Equivalent) stocked is expected to total 170 – 190 thousand tons, lower than the strategic level (250 thousand tons). It is important to consider that new estimates are supposed to be released until the end of February.
In this scenario, the harvest in 2022/23 needs to be large enough to raise stocks at least to the strategic level and thus prevent a world shortage of orange juice. Cepea calculations show that the orange output next season needs to total, at least, 330 million boxes in order to raise juice stocks to 250 thousand tons.
PROGRESS OF THE 2021/22 HARVESTING – According to Fundecitrus’ report, 82 % of the orange orchards had been harvested by mid-January/22, similar to that in the same period last season (81 %).
