Ad:Business Contacts
Ads:Current issue FRUIT PROCESSINGWorld Of Fruits 2023Our technical book Apple Juice TechnologyFRUIT PROCESSING Online Special: Instability of fruit-based beveragesFRUIT PROCESSING Online Special: Don’t give clogs a chanceOrange Juice ChainOur German magazine FLÜSSIGES OBST

The agents in the citrus market have been concerned about two recent events: hurricane Idalia, which hit Florida in late August (the third hurricane that hit the North-American State in less than a year), and the release of orange juice inventories at Brazilian processors, which, according to CitrusBR, are currently at the lowest levels since the beginning of the historical series, 12 years ago.

According to CitrusBR, on June 30th, 2023, when the 2022/23 season ended, the ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent totaled 84.745 thousand tons, 40.7 % lower than that at the end of the previous season and 39.5 % below that estimated by CitrusBR in August last year.

The reasons for these low inventories are the lower number of fruits processed (because of the reduced crop and losses caused by the lack of labor for the harvest), lower yield of oranges (partially due to the harvest delay) and higher juice exports (majorly to the United States) compared to that last season – a reflex of lower production in Florida.

These figures have raised concerns about the world supply of orange juice. The output in the current season (2023/24) is not forecast to be high and may not be enough for a recovery in the volume stocked by Brazilian processors.

So far, CitrusBR has preferred not to estimate the ending stocks for the 23/24 season (in June 2024), due to the challenges related to brix levels, industrial yield and even the volume processed, which may change until the end of the season. However, Cepea calculations based on data from Fundecitrus released in May 2023 show that inventories will hardly be higher by the end of the season, scenario that may become worse if exports rise again and if yield is below the average. In this context, orange production in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) will have to be high in the coming season (2024/25) for inventories to recover, at least partially, in June 2025.

Orange Juice

Global orange juice production for 2022/23 is estimated 9 percent lower to 1.5 million tons (65 degrees brix). Production is down due to reduced fruit available for processing in Brazil, the European Union, Mexico, and the United States. Consumption is mostly flat while exports are estimated down with the reduced available supplies

Please download the full global market report: www.nass.usda.gov

U.S. concentrated orange juice imports

In April 2023, supplies from abroad of concentrated orange juice decreased by -61.3 % to 16K tons for the first time since January 2023, thus ending a two-month rising trend. In general, imports showed a deep setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in December 2022 when imports increased by 206 % against the previous month. In value terms, concentrated orange juice imports declined rapidly to $48M (IndexBox estimates) in April 2023. Over the period under review, imports showed a perceptible reduction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in October 2022 with an increase of 130 % m-o-m.

Imports by country

In April 2023, Mexico (9.2K tons) constituted the largest supplier of concentrated orange juice to the United States, with a 56 % share of total imports. Moreover, concentrated orange juice imports from Mexico exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Costa Rica (4.1K tons), twofold. From April 2022 to April 2023, the average monthly rate of growth in terms of volume from Mexico amounted to -8.1 %. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average monthly rates of imports growth: Costa Rica (-2.3 % per month) and Brazil (+12.0 % per month). In value terms, Mexico ($29M) constituted the largest supplier of concentrated orange juice to the United States, comprising 61 % of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Costa Rica ($11M), with a 23 % share of total imports. From April 2022 to April 2023, the average monthly growth rate of value from Mexico amounted to -5.2 %. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average monthly rates of imports growth: Costa Rica (+0.9 % per month) and Brazil (+11.3 % per month).

Import prices by country

In April 2023, the concentrated orange juice price amounted to $2,920 per ton (CIF, US), surging by 18 % against the previous month. Overall, the import price showed a pronounced increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in July 2022 when the average import price increased by 117 % month-to-month. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $4,563 per ton. From August 2022 to April 2023, the average import prices failed to regain momentum. Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In April 2023, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($3,139 per ton), while the price for Brazil ($2,507 per ton) was amongst the lowest. From April 2022 to April 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Costa Rica (+3.2 %), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced mixed trend patterns.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

Estimates about the 2021/22 orange season in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) have been revised down, due to weather issues in Brazil. Data released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in September estimated the harvest to be 8.9 % lower than that forecast in the first report, released in May, at 267.87 million boxes. In light of that, the output may be similar to that in the previous season (268.63 million boxes). Although the 2021/22 season is a positive biennial cycle, oranges have been smaller, which explains lower production.

Although the estimates from May considered rainfall below the average, weather issues have increased since then, with frosts and severe drought. Between May and August, rainfall accounted for 30 % of the usual for the period, according to data from Somar/Climatempo Meteorologia (weather forecast agency).

The lack of rains has been damaging majorly the plants in dryland, however, agents from Fundecitrus highlight that even irrigated orchards (which account for 30 % of the trees in the citrus belt) have been debilitated by the drought, due to the limited availability of water at reservoirs. It is important to mention that the scenario has worsened since the frosts in late July.

Besides the smaller size of the oranges, the rate of premature fall of fruits is one of the highest. As the weather is forecast to continue unfavourable until the end of the season, the scenario is not expected to change, raising expectations for low production in 2021/22. Also, the chance of La Niña phenomena to occur until late 2021 is high, which may result in lower rainfall in southeastern Brazil in the second semester. This scenario would limit the growth of late varieties.

INDUSTRY – With the probable lower harvest of oranges in the 2021/22 season, the number of fruits allocated to processors is supposed to be lower too. CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) has not revised processing estimates yet, but Cepea forecasts the industry to purchase around 225 million boxes of oranges (40-8 kilograms each) this season. If this is confirmed and sales of orange juice are near the usual, juice inventories are expected to decrease steeply, to less than 200 thousand tons (Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice Equivalent), even with higher yield at processing plants, which usually happens in years of low rainfall.

This context will demand high orange production in the 2022/23 season (higher than 330 million boxes) so that ending stocks are replenished with no risk of world shortages. This situation may favor the prices paid to farmers in Brazil.

By the end of the 2020/21 season, in June 2021, the inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) equivalent at Brazilian processors totaled 316.93 thousand tons, according to data from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released in mid-August. Compared to that at the end of the 2019/20 season, inventories decreased by 33 %. This reduction was already expected by agents, due to the slower crushing pace of oranges in 2020/21, when orange production was low.

CitrusBR avoided releasing estimates for the current season because of the weather issues (extended drought in the citrus belt and frosts in late July) in the major citrus-producing regions in Brazil, which are still concerning agents. However, ending stocks in the 2021/22 season (by June 2022) may be lower than the strategic level.

So far, considering Fundecitrus’ (Citrus Defense Fund) production estimates from May, of 294 million boxes (40.8 kilograms each), the volume processed may be around 250 million boxes. In that scenario, Cepea data indicate that ending stocks in the 2021/22 season (which ends in June/22) may not be enough to generate a world surplus of orange juice.

Also, agents in the Brazilian citrus sector believe that the estimates from Fundecitrus will be revised down, due to the drought and frosts in Brazil. In this context, the volume processed may be revised too, and juice inventories may be even lower. Thus, processors will depend on higher orange production in 2022/23 to, at least, replenish inventories – which is a concern too, considering that the effects of the weather may be extended to the coming season, since many trees are currently debilitated.

As regards orange processing, the crushing pace for the fruits from 2021/22 was fast in August at the large-sized plants in São Paulo State (SP), with mostly pear oranges being crushed.

Orange processing is expected to last until mid-February/March 2022, with less plants in activity compared to that in the second semester of 2021, however, with higher volumes being produced than that in the same period of previous years, because of the delay in the development of trees (due to weather issues) and irregular flowering. It is worth to consider that the 2021/22 season is expected to have higher volumes of fruits from the third and fourth flowering events (altogether) since Fundecitrus began estimating crops, in 2015/16 – making it a late crop.

BRAZILIAN MARKET IN AUGUST – The demand for oranges was low in the Brazilian market in August, constrained by the current high price levels and lower quality of the oranges available (small-sized and wilted). Still, prices increased, boosted by low supply.

Orange juice (volume equivalent to concentrate juice) exports finished the 2020/21 season downing 7 % compared to the previous (2019/20). From July 2020 to June 2021, shipments to all destinations totaled 1.03 million tons, according to Secex. The revenue, in turn, amounted 1.54 billion USD, for a decrease of 15 % in relation to the season before.

The low performance is related to the smaller orange supply in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro), but players from the industry say that international prices (in USD) were not very high. On the average of the season, prices of the concentrate juice (which accounts for most of the revenue obtained) were 11 % lower, according to Secex. On the other hand, NFC (not-from-concentrate) values were 8 % higher in the same comparison. It is important to mention that the dollar valuation favored the revenue in Real (BRL).

The decrease was mostly influenced by the European Union, a major purchaser of the Brazilian product: it imported 649.95 thousand tons, 13 % down compared to the season before. The revenue was 982.86 million USD, for a decrease of 20 % in the same comparison.

Exports to the United States, in turn, increased. In general, besides consecutive reductions in the orange production in Florida (limiting local inventories), the pandemic scenario has favoured the demand in some periods, due to the healthy aspect of consuming the product. Shipments totaled 198.34 thousand tons in the 2020/21 season, 13 % up compared to the previous. The revenue rose 7 %, totaling 297.53 million USD.

As for the 2021/22 season, which starts in July, Brazilian exports may again be limited due to smaller orange production and low pace of consumption. However, the economic recovery is likely to favour sales.

Moderate consumption of 100% orange juice should be encouraged in children due to its multiple health benefits and lack of negative impacts on body weight, according to a spate of recent and previous research studies on the topic.

Consuming 100 % orange juice can help supplement the intake of key vitamins, minerals and health-associated bioactive compounds that may be missing in a child’s diet. A growing number of research studies has revealed that children who regularly drink 100 % orange juice have higher intakes of key nutrients, higher quality diets, and may have healthier lifestyle habits, like greater physical activity levels, than children who do not drink OJ.  Plus, recent studies align with past studies which help debunk the myth about 100 % orange juice and weight gain by showing that OJ intake is not associated with weight gain in children.

“Misconceptions about the perceived lack of health benefits of 100 % orange juice are unfortunate and could lead kids to potentially miss out on the nutritional benefits that OJ provides,” said Dr. Rosa Walsh, director of scientific research at the Florida Department of Citrus. “However, study after study confirms that 100 % orange juice not only has a place in the diets of children, but it can also serve as an easy way for parents to provide key nutrients without fear of adverse effect on body weight when served in moderation. By sharing the big picture these results show, we can help correct these misconceptions and empower both consumers and health professionals to make diet decisions grounded in scientific evidence.”

As Americans’ fruit and vegetable consumption continues to erode, particularly among young children, 100 % orange juice could play a key role in providing some of the nutrients kids need. A 4 oz. serving of 100 % orange juice is an excellent source of vitamin C and an 8 oz. serving for older children is a good source of potassium, folate and thiamin while still meaningfully contributing these nutrients at smaller serving sizes. Fortified OJ additionally contributes calcium and vitamin D. Potassium, calcium and vitamin D are considered nutrients of public health concern in the 2020-2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans.

Research also shows that children who drink 100 % orange juice have higher total fruit consumption, lower intake of added sugar and tend to have higher diet quality and higher physical activity levels compared to those who do not drink OJ.1-4

Further, 100 % orange juice is not being overconsumed by children, despite reports to the contrary. In fact, orange juice consumption by children has declined in recent years along with the amount of key nutrients provided by it. On average, 100 % orange juice accounts for less than 1 % of total daily calorie intake in the diets of children and about 4 % of calories from beverages.2 Children are on average consuming 100 % orange juice well below the 100 % juice limits established by the American Academy of Pediatrics, which supports 4 to 6 ounces for children under age 7 and 8 ounces for older children.

Lastly, consumption of 100 % orange juice is not associated with overweight or obesity in children. In fact, research shows that in some cases, 100 % orange juice consumers had less chance of having elevated body weight and may be taller compared to those who do not consume OJ.1-5 This lack of association between 100 % orange juice intake and body weight is supported by both cross-sectional1-3,6,7 and longitudinal4,5 analyses.

  1. Sakaki et al. Nutrients. 2019;11(11):2687.
  2. Maillot et al. Front Nutr. 2020;7:63.
  3. O’Neil CE et al. Pediatric Research and Child Health. 2020;4(1).
  4. Sakaki JR et al. Public Health Nutr. 2020;1-8.
  5. Sakaki JR et al. Pediatr Obes. 2021;e12781.
  6. O’Neil CE et al. Nutr Res. 2011;31(9):673–682.
  7. Wang Y et al. Public Health Nutr. 2012;15(12):2220-2227.

A new study suggests substituting 100 % fruit juice in the diet in place of beverages containing added sugars may lower health risks for cardiovascular-related disease, including type-2 diabetes and coronary heart disease.

Researchers performed a modeling analysis simulating the substitution of 100 % fruit juices for fruit and sugar-sweetened beverages in more than 34,000 Dutch participants ages 20 to 70. The findings, published in Public Health Nutrition, support previous research and hypotheses suggesting that substituting fruit juice for sugar-sweetened beverages would be associated with lower cardiometabolic risk with no change in risk when fruit juice was substituted for fruit.

When more than three-quarters of sugar-sweetened beverages in the diet were replaced with 100 % fruit juice, researchers found the risk for diabetes was lowered by 17 % when compared to the lowest substitution level of less than one-quarter. A similar substitution analysis found the risk for coronary heart disease was reduced by 12 %. Substituting 100 % fruit juice for whole fruit resulted in no change in risks. These calculations were made while considering other factors such as age, sex, educational level, physical activity, smoking, family history of diabetes, healthy diet index, alcohol, coffee, fruit intake, body mass index, and waist circumference.

“100 % fruit juice is frequently equated to sugar-sweetened beverages because of similar sugar content, but this study suggests their effects on diabetes and heart disease risk could be very different,” said Gail Rampersaud, Florida Department of Citrus registered dietitian nutritionist. “Substituting nutrient dense 100 % orange juice for sugar-sweetened beverages may be quite beneficial toward enhancing the intake of key nutrients, meeting daily fruit recommendations, reducing the intake of added sugars as recommended by the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, and reducing the risks for some health conditions.”

Other research supports findings that the consumption of 100 % orange juice or 100 % fruit juice is not related to risk of metabolic syndrome or diabetes and may have beneficial effects on cardiovascular health. Eight ounces of 100 % orange juice is an excellent source of vitamin C and a good source of potassium, folate, and thiamin. Oranges and 100 % orange juice are the primary dietary sources of the polyphenol, hesperidin, which may have beneficial effects on blood pressure in some individuals.

Current beverage labeling regulations appear to fall short of helping parents identify the ingredients, sugar and juice makeup of beverages they purchase for their children, a recent study published in Pediatric Obesity suggests. This has researchers calling for changes to beverage labeling regulations to increase transparency and help consumers choose healthier beverages.

The experimental online study included over 1,600 parents who had healthy children aged 1 to 5 years old. Parents were shown product label information for commonly consumed children’s beverages, including flavoured waters, 100 % fruit juice, and juice drinks and other beverages containing added sugars or non-nutritive (artificial) sweeteners. Some parents were shown only front labels, while some were shown both front and back or side labels which included the Nutrition Facts panel and other information. Study participants then answered questions concerning the sugar and percent juice content of the beverages.

About one-third of participants indicated they were not confident they could identify the added sugar and juice content of beverages. Only about half of study participants (48 percent) said they looked at the Nutrition Facts panel all or most of the time when choosing beverages for their children.

Overall, participants frequently underestimated the percent of juice in 100 % fruit juice. Even though the percent juice was stated on the package front for the 100 % fruit juice product in the study, only 51 percent of parents who were shown only the package front correctly identified the juice percentage. When exposed to additional information on the back and side panels, 37 percent still could not correctly identify the percent juice and 40 percent incorrectly said that 100 % juice contained added sugars.

Conversely, participants frequently overestimated the amount of pure fruit juice in sugar-sweetened juice drinks and beverages. For an added-sugar product that looks similar to 100 % orange juice but contains only 5 percent juice, almost all participants (98 percent) could not accurately state the amount of pure juice just by looking at the front of the label and, on average, estimated that the product contained 45 percent pure fruit juice, 40 percent higher than the actual juice content. Fewer than half of participants who additionally looked at back/side labels could correctly identify the percent juice content and, on average, estimated that the beverage contained 24 percent pure juice. For beverages that are not 100 % fruit juice there is no requirement to identify sweeteners or juice content on the front label.

“The results are striking and this study suggests that labels for 100 % fruit juice and fruit beverages or drinks are not working as intended and for many parents may result in misunderstandings and confusion when trying to choose healthful beverages for their children,” said Gail Rampersaud, registered dietitian nutritionist in the Scientific Research Department of the Florida Department of Citrus. “Consumers need more education coupled with labels that are clearer and easier to understand,” added Rampersaud.

The results suggest that lack of knowledge and clear labeling may lead parents to choose less healthy added-sugar beverages over 100 % juices, such as 100 % orange juice. The researchers suggest that the Food and Drug Administration allow label declarations that will increase transparency concerning juice percentage and sweetener content, particularly on front of package, to help consumers make healthful beverage choices.

With the anticipation of the drought and rainfall below the average in the first quarter of 2021 in São Paulo (SP), the development of the oranges from the 2021/22 season is below the expected, majorly in non-irrigated groves. At the current stage of groves development (fruit enlargement), moisture is crucial, which is warning farmers about the volume to be harvested this season.

So far, it is believed that production will be small, but larger than that in the 2020/21 season (due to the weather in the second semester of 2020 and its effects on flowering and settlement).

Besides the number of fruits, which is not forecast to be high, citrus farmers have been concerned about quality issues that may occur because of low moisture. The top complaints are related to size (since fruits may take longer to reach the ideal size) and wilted oranges (riper fruits), largely pear and early oranges. On the other hand, until the end of April, fruit drop, which may also be worsened by the lack of rain, was not significant, according to farmers.

In order to avoid higher quality loss, some farmers may accelerate the harvesting, even if the oranges have not reached the ideal size and ripening, which may hamper sales and constrain price rises.

INDUSTRIAL YIELD – On the other hand, industrial yield may be favored by the lack of rainfall in citrus-producing regions, since less boxes of oranges may be necessary to produce a ton of concentrated juice.

New research shows no adverse association between change in Body Mass Index (BMI) and consumption of 100 % orange juice among older children adding to a growing list of studies suggesting children and teens can benefit from regularly drinking 100 % orange juice without concerns about weight gain. The four-year longitudinal study published in Pediatric Obesity found that drinking 100 % orange juice was associated with smaller changes in BMI over time in girls, with no significant effect on BMI in boys.

The analysis by researchers at the University of Connecticut and Harvard’s School of Public Health and Medical School included children ages 9 to 16 who were followed from 2004 through 2008.1 The analysis showed there was a clear lack of a connection between orange juice and increased BMI in this age group. One hundred percent orange juice contributed, on average, between 40 to 50 calories to the daily diet while milk contributed almost four times that amount, from 150 to 180 calories. This amount of orange juice represents under 4 ounces per day on average, which falls well below the recommendations of the American Academy of Pediatrics, which suggests limits for 100 % fruit juice consumption of 8 oz. daily for children over 7. The 2020-2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans counts 100 % fruit juice as a fruit serving and recommends that primary beverages either be calorie free – especially water – or contribute beneficial nutrients, such as fat-free and low-fat milk and 100 % fruit juice.2

“Children in this age group fail to consume adequate amounts of fruit and certain micronutrients such as vitamin C and potassium,” said Dr. Rosa Walsh, Director of Scientific Research at the Florida Department of Citrus. “Although the preferred choice is whole fruit, this research supports that moderate consumption of 100 % orange juice can be a beneficial addition to the diet to help meet fruit intake recommendations and is unlikely to contribute to childhood obesity.”

This longitudinal study, funded by an unrestricted grant by the Florida Department of Citrus, adds to the growing body of scientific research supporting the role of 100 % orange juice in adults’ and children’s diets.

  • Another data analysis of nearly 14,000 Americans, ages 4 and older, concluded that people who drink 100% orange juice have lower BMI and healthier lifestyle behaviors than people who don’t drink orange juice.3
  • A longitudinal analysis of more than 7,300 children and adolescents in the GUTSII cohort concluded that 100% fruit juice or OJ intake was not associated with negative effects on body weight, BMI or BMI percentile. In fact, higher OJ intake was associated with greater changes (positive) in height for girls.4
  • A trend analysis for children reported that despite higher energy intakes, there was no significant difference in physical activity levels, percent overweight or obese, or BMI z-score when comparing kids who consume 100 % orange juice versus those who don’t.5
  • A comprehensive review performed by the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics for their Evidence Analysis Library examined the association between 100 % fruit juice intake and weight in children and concluded that the evidence does not support an association between 100 % fruit juice consumption and weight status or adiposity in children ages 2 to 18 years of age.6

Every glass of 100 % orange juice supports overall health and can help adults and children meet intake recommendations for key nutrients they may be lacking in their diets. An 8-oz. serving size contains vital vitamins and antioxidants, including vitamin C, potassium, folate, hesperidin and more, with no added sugar. From helping improve diet quality to providing key nutrients that can help support a healthy immune system, 100 % orange juice offers a number of health benefits and can also easily be incorporated into simple, great-tasting recipes.

About the Florida Department of Citrus
The Florida Department of Citrus is an executive agency of Florida government charged with the marketing, research and regulation of the Florida citrus industry. Its activities are funded by a tax paid by growers on each box of citrus that moves through commercial channels. The industry employs more than 37,000 people, provides an annual economic impact of $6.5 billion to the state, and contributes hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenues that help support Florida’s schools, roads and health care services.

1Sakaki JR et al. Pediatric Obesity. 2021;Mar 1:e12781.
2USDA and USDHHS. Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2020-2025. 9th Edition. December 2020. Available at DietaryGuidelines.gov.
3Wang et al. Pub Health Nutr. 2012;15(12):2220-2227.
4Sakaki et al. Public Health Nutr. 2020 Oct 7;1-8.
5Nicklas et al. International Journal of Child Health and Nutrition. 2020;9(3):100-114.
6Evidence Analysis Library (EAL), Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Dietary and Metabolic Impact of Fruit Juice Consumption Evidence Analysis Project.

The third production estimates for the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2020/21 season, released by Fundecitrus on Wednesday, February 10, indicates that orange supply should total 269.01 million boxes of 40.8-kilograms each. This volume is 6.52 % lower than that initially estimated and 30.45 % below that in the previous season. This is also the worst annual decrease in all times.

As low supply has been confirmed, orange prices continue firm in the Brazilian market. According to Fundecitrus estimates, 81 % of the fruits had been harvested up to mid-January. The harvesting of pear oranges has reached 82 % of the volume forecast, and for the late varieties (valencia, folha murcha and natal), 75 %.

According to Fundecitrus, the biennial production cycle and the unfavorable weather (drought and high temperatures) in the second semester of 2019 (flowering) and 2020 (fruit-filling stage) led to the current crop failure. The report from Fundecitrus also points that, although rainfall was higher in the citrus belt in December 2020 (8 % up from the average), it was lower, irregular and short in January, due to the La Niña phenomenon.

Thus, the average weight of the oranges harvested was lower – usually, 261 fruits fill up a box, meaning that each orange should weight 156 grams, 8 % down from the average of the last five crops.

PRODUCTIVITY – Low productivity this season has been majorly linked to late varieties and pear oranges. Thus, with lower volumes, the demand from processors continues high, which is controlling both supply and prices in the first months of 2021.

PRICES – In the market of tahiti lime, supply was high in the first fortnight of February, due to the peak of harvest, however, sales were firm. According to Cepea collaborators, the increase of crushing was leading agents from processors to search for fruits in the in natura market, pushing up quotes in São Paulo. It is important to highlight that the supply of lower quality fruits is high, which is discouraging exports.

On the other hand, orange prices were fading in the first half of the February. Despite the beginning of the month (when workers’ wages are paid) and the low supply of high-quality fruits, low demand was limiting sales. Farmers expect demand to increase when the first oranges harvested are available, since their quality should be higher – however, this is forecast for mid-March only.

Price averages of all orange varieties were firm in January in São Paulo state and may continue high in February. The lower production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2020/21 season and difficulties to harvest in some areas, due to rains, underpinned values. Moreover, the supply of high-quality orange was low – most fruits available in January had characteristics unwanted by consumers, such as large size and thick peel.

In January/21, pera rio orange quotes averaged 39.06 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 27.9 % up compared to January/20, but a decrease of 3.6 % in relation to December/20, in nominal terms. As for lima orange, the average was 73.85 BRL/box, 101 % up in the annual comparison, but 8.6 % lower in relation to December/20. Natal orange values averaged 35.07 BRL per box (+29.9 % in one year, but -3.4 % compared to the month before).

Values may continue at high levels to citrus growers in February, mainly for high-quality fruits in the in natura market. The loss of fruitlets and the low rate of established flowers last year that now result in a limited volume of out-of-season oranges favor this scenario. As for the demand, it can increase in February because of high temperatures.

As for the first oranges harvested in the 2021/22 season in Jales, where major flowerings are advanced, they can be available from March onwards. However, due to the dry weather in the second semester of 2020 and the consequent low rate of flowers established, the volume may not be very high.

TAHITI LIME – The peak season in São Paulo continued to press down tahiti lime prices in late January. However, producers reported problems brought by hot weather and rains, which can increase the allocation of fruits to crushing activities and limit the supply in the in natura market.

After the low production in the 2020/21 season, agents expect a limited orange crop in 2021/22 in São Paulo State and the Triângulo Mineiro, due to unfavorable weather conditions. This scenario tends to underpin orange prices in 2021.

The first estimates for the 2021/22 crop, released by the USDA in December/2020, indicate that the harvest in SP and the Triângulo Mineiro should total 315 million boxes of 40.8-kilos each, 17 % up from that in the previous season. Despite this recovery, this volume does not mean the productive potential of crops will be recovered because of the bad weather conditions in these regions.

Thus, a harvest of 315 million boxes is not high, and therefore may not be enough to totally offset orange juice inventories. On the other hand, it should favor farmers’ revenue for one more year, due to the firm industrial demand. It is worth to mention that these estimates may change, since it is still early to assess production, majorly this year. Fundecitrus should release estimates only in May 2021.

INVENTORIES – Data from CitrusBR indicate that initial inventories in the 2021/22 season may be from 240 to 280 thousand tons in July/21. Although this volume is not lower than the strategic level established, the small harvest in the 2021/22 season may limit the volume by the end of the season, in June 2022.

CONTRACTS WITH THE INDUSTRY – Deals for the new season have not been closed. As the volume produced is still uncertain, reasonable prices cannot be fixed either. Besides, in the 2020/21 season, many processors closed deals for the following crop. Thus, a higher volume of fruits from the coming season has already been sold. Still, prices are expected to be positive in this segment, since the demand from the industry should be high.

IN NATURA MARKET – Higher industrial demand should keep orange prices on the rise in the in natura market in 2021/22. As the 2021/22 crop is expected to be late again, the prices of early oranges should be favored, and quotes should be underpinned, since the pear orange crop may be late.

The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2020/21 is forecast at 415 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx), equal to 16.93 million metric tons (mmt), an increase of 14 percent relative to the current season. The forecast assumes normal weather conditions will prevail as of mid-December 2020 to support fruit setting and development of the second blossoming in the Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais commercial citrus belt. The current orange crop estimate in the Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais citrus belt was revised downward from 287.8 to 269.4 MBx (11.74 mmt to 10.99 mmt) as a consequence of the lack of rain fall and high temperatures between September and October. Total Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent exports for MY 2020/21 are forecast at 1.08 mmt, similar to revised figure for MY 2019/20

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov

Although the harvesting of the 2020/21 orange crop is advancing in Brazil, delivery to processors in São Paulo State (SP) was slow in November. According to Cepea collaborators, this scenario is linked to the lack of rains in the citrus-producing regions in SP in the last months, which limited both quality and supply, hampering activities at processing plants. On the other hand, rainfall in late November increased ratio and brix, favoring the juice produced in that period.

As regards the deals for the coming season (2021/22), the large-sized processors of orange juice in SP have been more interested in closing deals. However, bids have not been fixed and there may be an additional for participation in juice sales to the international market. Most citrus farmers are waiting for a better definition of the crop, since it seems the bad weather conditions this year may affect results.

SPOT – In the current season, large-sized processors are bidding prices up to 24.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, while bids from smaller-sized processors have been up to 28.00 BRL/box – late and pear oranges account for the most varieties processed. In November (until Nov. 26), prices averaged 24.46 BRL/box, 20.7 % up from the average in Nov/19, in nominal terms.

However, it is worth to mention that one of the large-sized processors was not closing deals in the spot market in November because of both the low supply of higher quality and larger-sized fruits and the competition with the domestic market, since prices have been attractive in this segment, and farmers are opting for selling fruits in natura.

A new analysis of nutrition research suggests that consumption of 100 % fruit juice, such as 100 % orange juice, by adults may have cardiovascular benefits and does not increase the risk of cardiovascular disease or its risk factors.

The comprehensive analysis, published in the European Journal of Nutrition, pooled and collectively analyzed the results of 21 prospective and 35 randomized clinical studies published through August 2019, and found that drinking moderate amounts of 100 % fruit juice was associated with a lower risk of total cardiovascular events and stroke. The study also reported no association at any level of 100 % fruit juice intake with weight measures, including body weight, body mass index, and waist circumference, and risk for diabetes or risk factors for diabetes such as insulin resistance.1

Based on the analysis by researchers that were part of a working group from the Italian Society of Human Nutrition (SINU), significantly lower risks for total cardiovascular disease were observed at 100 % fruit juice intake levels up to 170 ml per day (between 5 and 6 ounces) and lower risks for stroke were seen at intake amounts up to 200 ml per day (between 6 and 7 ounces). Higher consumption amounts did not significantly increase nor decrease risk. The analysis also found significant reductions in systolic and diastolic blood pressure with 100 % fruit juice consumption, which could have been responsible for the observed risk reduction with cardiovascular events and stroke.

Additionally, no significant associations were seen with 100 % fruit juice intake and increased risk for diabetes or risk factors for diabetes, including blood glucose and insulin levels and measures of insulin sensitivity. Consistent with many other studies, 100 % fruit juice was not associated with weight parameters, including body weight, body mass index, and waist circumference.

A meta-analysis pools together and analyzes the results from previously conducted and published studies. In the hierarchy of research studies, a systematic review/meta-analysis ranks high with regard to the strength and robustness of results.

“These results help further support a positive role for 100 % fruit juice in cardiovascular health without negative effects on weight, risk for diabetes, or risk factors for these major diseases. While the study looked collectively at all 100 % fruit juices we also have research supporting the beneficial effects of 100 % orange juice on some of these very same health outcomes. In the end, a win for 100 % fruit juice is also a win for 100% orange juice,” said Dr. Rosa Walsh, director of scientific research at the Florida Department of Citrus.

This systematic review and meta-analysis, funded through an unrestricted grant by the European Fruit Juice Association (AIJN), adds to the growing body of scientific research supporting the role of 100 % fruit juice and 100 % orange juice in the diet:

  • randomized controlled trial reported that 100 % orange juice reduced systolic blood pressure in adults with pre- or stage-1 hypertension. Hesperidin, provided almost exclusively in the diet by 100 % orange juice and oranges, appears to play a key role in the observed effects.2
  • A meta-analysis of 95 studies showed higher intake of citrus fruit and citrus fruit juice decreased risk of coronary heart disease, cardiovascular disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality. Citrus fruit juices were associated with a 25 percent reduction in the risk for ischemic stroke.3
  • In a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies, 100% fruit juice was associated with a 33 percent lower risk for stroke mortality.4
  • Numerous studies report no association between 100% orange juice or 100% fruit juice intake and body weight in children or adults.5-8

Every glass of 100 % orange juice supports overall health and can help adults and children meet intake recommendations for key nutrients they may be lacking in their diets. An 8-oz. serving size contains vital vitamins and antioxidants, including vitamin C, potassium, folate, hesperidin and more, with no sugar added. From helping improve diet quality to supporting a healthy immune system, 100 % orange juice offers a number of health benefits and can also easily be incorporated into simple, great-tasting recipes.

About the Florida Department of Citrus
The Florida Department of Citrus is an executive agency of Florida government charged with the marketing, research and regulation of the Florida citrus industry.  Its activities are funded by a tax paid by growers on each box of citrus that moves through commercial channels.  The industry employs more than 37,000 people, provides an annual economic impact of $6.5 billion to the state, and contributes hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenues that help support Florida’s schools, roads and health care services.

References

The #1 selling organic orange juice brand unveils functional beverage featuring elderberry, vitamin C, vitamin D and zinc for serious immune support

Uncle Matt’s Organic®, the US #1 selling brand of organic orange juice, announced the launch of its Ultimate Immune orange juice beverage, an immune support powerhouse made with organic orange juice, elderberry, 300 % of your daily dose of vitamin C, 50 % vitamin D and 25 % zinc for immune and wellness support.

“Over the past six months, families have turned to what they associate with daily immune support: vitamin C-rich orange juice,” said Susan McLean, VP of Marketing and Innovation at Uncle Matt’s Organic. “As a mom, I was looking for even more ways to naturally boost my family’s immune health during this unprecedented time, and I kept circling back to these powerfully-proven ingredients: vitamin C, vitamin D and zinc,” she continued. “This trifecta of vitamins – together with the antioxidant elderberry – is the ‘ultimate’ in immunity support. We are really excited to be able to offer Uncle Matt’s Organic Ultimate Immune directly from our family to yours,” Susan stated.

Uncle Matt’s Organic Ultimate Immune will be available in a family friendly 52 oz size at Wegmans and Publix, select Whole Foods and Shoprite stores, as well as online at unclematts.com launching soon! More store announcements will be communicated through the brand’s social channels in the coming weeks.

With the addition of Ultimate Immune, there is a functional Uncle Matt’s Organic offering for everyone in the family, including: Organic Orange Juice with calcium & vitamin D, Organic Orange Defense with turmeric and probiotics and Organic Orange Energy with coffeeberry.

Uncle Matt’s Organic produces the highest quality juice, using only premium 100 % organically-grown fruit that is free from synthetic fertilizers, pesticides and GMOs. As the nation’s oldest organic orange juice company, Uncle Matt’s Organic is committed to growing and producing tasty, good-for-you clean label organic juices that are certified glyphosate residue free.

Ultimate Immune Facts:

  • 300 % RDA of Vitamin C per serving
  • 50 % RDA Vitamin D per serving
  • 25 % RDA Zinc per serving
  • Organic elderberry juice
  • Antioxidants, B vitamins and citrus bio-flavonoids
  • No toxic pesticides, GMOs or artificial junk
  • USDA certified organic
  • Certified glyphosate residue free by The Detox Project

About Uncle Matt’s Organic
Uncle Matt’s Organic® is the nation’s oldest organic orange juice company offering premium quality organic products. All Uncle Matt’s products are USDA Organic, have no synthetic additives or preservatives and contain no GMOs. Uncle Matt’s products are available nationwide in fine retailers nationwide. Uncle Matt’s is an active member of Organic Trade Association (OTA) and supports the Organic Farming Research Foundation, The Organic Center, and Organic Voices.

Orange prices have been on the rise in the Brazilian in natura market this month – the upward trend of quotes has been observed since July. Although the share of late varieties is increasing in the in natura market, in general, supply is low, while consumption is increasing sharply, due to the current high temperatures in Brazil.

Between October 1st and 15th, the average price for pear oranges was 36.52 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 14.7 % higher than that in the first fortnight of September.

Low supply, mainly of high-quality oranges, is expected to keep prices on the rise in Brazil in the coming weeks. Besides, estimates for a 26 % decrease in the output of the 2020/21 crop should be revised, due to the drought and high temperatures in São Paulo State, which should reduce even more the volume harvested compared to the official estimates.

Data released in early October by the ABCM (Brazilian Association of In Natura Citrus) indicate that the 2020/21 citrus crops in São Paulo and in Minas Gerais States are, indeed, going to be lower. The drought faced by the sector in the major producing months hampered the development of fruits, which are small-sized. ABCM reported that, soon, the retail market and distributors may have lower supply of in natura citrus – or even a lack of products.

ABCM entrenches that the high temperatures and low rains between July and August damaged the fruits from the second flowering in the 2020/21 crop, which accounted for most of the output. In this scenario, agents believe that Fudencitrus’ next estimates, forecast to be released in December, may be revised down.

ORANGE JUICE – The 2020/21 orange crop in Florida was damaged by the hot and dry weather, which constrained groves’ productivity. Thus, the American orange output should be lower, which may lead the country to import higher amounts of orange juice. This scenario may favor the Brazilian sector, since Brazil is the top supplier of orange juice to the United States.

Between Oct/19 and Jul/20 (2019/20 season), the USA imported lower volumes of orange juice: 38 % of concentrated juice and 39.5 % of fresh juice, compared to that in the previous season, according to the Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC).

Although the Brazilian juice is losing market share to that from Mexico, the orange harvest from Mexico in the 2019/20 season (Nov/19 to Oct/20) decreased sharply, which may constrain juice production. According to the USDA, the Mexican supply should be 45 % lower than that in the previous season, and orange juice production, 60 % lower. Although initial inventories are high, juice supply should be 50 % lower.

However, it is worth to mention that the crops from São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro should also be lower in 2020/21. According to a report from Fundecitrus released last month, the harvest in the Brazilian citrus belt should total 286.72 million boxes, 26 % down compared to that in the previous season. This volume may decrease even more because of the drought in this region in the past months, which may even reduce supply in the 2021/22 season.

Consortium invests €10 million to realize sustainable ambitions of PeelPioneers

Dutch scale-up PeelPioneers is building Europe’s largest peel processing factory in Den Bosch, the Netherlands. Supermarkets, restaurants and hotels that offer freshly-squeezed orange juice to their customers now have an effective, sustainable way to dispose of their growing pile of peels. Supported by a strong consortium of investors, the new plant triples the company’s processing capacity to 120,000 thousand kilos of peels per day. PeelPioneers plans to expand into Europe with five new peel processing plants in the next five years.

The new factory builds on the strong trend in many European countries of consumers that increasingly appreciate freshly squeezed orange juice. In addition to scaling up production, the plant in Den Bosch will enable PeelPioneers to extract even more value from peels. In the factory’s laboratory, PeelPioneers’ scientists are developing new citrus peel products, such as dietary fibers that offer strength and structure to meat substitutes bakery products, and sauces and ensure the right mouth sensation. With this, PeelPioneers wants to contribute to the protein transition.

Proprietary pioneering technology

PeelPioneers’ proprietary pioneering technology provides a one hundred percent circular solution for these peels that in most countries end up getting destroyed in an incinerator. The company extracts orange oil and other much-wanted raw materials that food manufacturers use in products such as beer, lemonade, muffins and chocolate. The raw materials that PeelPioneers derives from orange peels are also sold to manufacturers of non-food products such as detergents and cosmetics.

Sytze van Stempvoort, co-founder of PeelPioneers: “With the growing demand for freshly squeezed juice, the number of peels is also growing. We make food from food. In this process, the entire incoming stream is retained in the food chain. With the new factory in Den Bosch, we will soon be able to save even more peels from the incinerator. We are scaling up to one hundred and twenty thousand kilos of peels a day: an Olympic swimming pool full”.

Strong investment consortium

PeelPioneers is actively supported by a strong investment consortium consisting of Rabobank, the Netherlands Ministry of Economic Affairs (Top Sector Energy Grant), het Nationale Groenfonds, Brabantse Ontwikkelings Maatschappij, European Circular Bioeconomy Fund, and initial investor DOEN Participaties.

European rollout

PeelPioneers is also exploring an European rollout, to take away the ever-growing pile of peels from supermarkets, hotels, and restaurants in target countries where the stream of orange peels is growing, while offering them a one hundred percent circular solution.

Bas van Wieringen, co-founder of PeelPioneers: “PeelPioneers is the largest producer of raw materials from citrus peels in Northwest Europe. In this way, we are responding to the growing need of our North-West European customers for a local supply chain. Thanks to the local

production of high-quality food ingredients, they are no longer dependent on seasonal oranges or transport from outside Europe. In this way, we contribute to the reduction of CO2 emissions”.

Orange juice inventories ended the 2019-20 season (on June 30, 2020) on the rise, as already expected by agents from the Brazilian citrus market. According to CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters), the volume stocked by then totaled 471.138 thousand tons, a staggering 86 % up compared to that in the previous season, due to the higher orange production.

However, although the 2020-21 crop started with high volumes stocked, production is forecast to be low in São Paulo State and the Triângulo Mineiro, which is keeping firm the demand from processors for oranges. This scenario should lower inventories by the end of the current crop.

A report released by Citrus BR in late August estimates that, on June 30 2021, the inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent from the 20-21 crop will total from 240 to 280 thousand tons, 49 % down compared to that in the previous season.

These estimates consider that around 238 million boxes of 40.8 kilos of oranges will be processed (with 50 million boxes left to be sold in the in natura market), average yield of 268 boxes to produce a ton of FCOJ Equivalent and stable sales, at 1.15 million tons. These results are similar to that estimated by Cepea in May, at 250 thousand tons. It is worth to mention that both estimates (from CitrusBR and Cepea) take into consideration the fact that there may be adjustments in industrial yield, due to the multiple flowerings registered in 2020-21.

According to agents from processors, yield has been low, and much more than the 268 boxes are needed to produce a ton of juice, as estimated by CitrusBR. Although this number tends to decrease along the season, it is concerning, since the prices paid for the fruits have been higher this season, meaning that remuneration for lower quality oranges is currently higher. In this scenario, the only processors that has been purchasing oranges in the Brazilian spot market is bidding prices according to yield: when more than 290 boxes are needed for a ton of juice, prices average 21.60 BRL/box, while for the fruits with higher yield, prices reach 24.00 BRL/box.

BRAZILIAN MARKET IN AUGUST – Despite the weak demand, due to the colder weather, orange prices remained firm in August, underpinned by the lower supply of higher quality fruits in the in natura market. Besides, the fast crushing pace at the large-sized processors in SP helped to reduce availability in the market. Thus, between August 1st and 31, the average price for pear oranges closed at 30.01 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 11.8 % higher than that in July.

TAHITI LIME – Tahiti lime supply was low in the Brazilian market in August, forecast to increase only from mid-September. The fruits that were on tree had not reached the ideal size and maturation to be harvested, since the weather was dry in the last months.

Thus, prices were firm last month, which limited deals in the in natura market of São Paulo State. In August, the average price for tahiti lime was 85.15 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 40 % up compared to that in July.

Orange Juice

Global orange juice production for 2019/20 is estimated to slip 23 percent to 1.6 million tons (65 degrees brix) as production in Brazil and Mexico tumbles as a result of fewer oranges expected to be available for processing. Consumption is projected to be flat (though not down) and global trade is estimated lower with the expected drop in exports from Brazil and Mexico.

Please download the full report: https://apps.fas.usda.gov

The 2019-20 exporting season of orange juice and citrus by-products had a good performance. This result was already expected by the agents from the sector, who were based on the higher orange supply in the citrus belt from São Paulo State, which favored inventories building up at processors. With the covid-19 pandemic, agents also reported occasional higher demand for orange juice, due to the nutritional values of the product as well as higher breakfast consumption at home.

As regards orange juice, the volume of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice Equivalent (FCOJ Equivalent) was higher, but revenue remained stable. According to data from Secex, between July/19 and June/2020, Brazil shipped 1.11 million tons of the product to all destination countries. Revenue from these shipments totaled 1.8 billion USD, stable compared to that in the previous season. In Real, revenue totaled 8.09 billion (boosted by the strong dollar), 16 % higher than that received in the 2018-19 season.

Despite the good exports performance to the European Union, the major purchaser of the Brazilian orange juice, shipments to the United States decreased, ending the season with an 11 % lower volume (174.76 thousand tons) and a 19 % lower revenue (276.93 million USD). Brazilian exports to the EU totaled 768.15 thousand tons, 20 % up compared to that in the previous season. Revenue totaled 1.26 billion USD, 7 % up in the same comparison.

As for the Brazilian exports of citrus by-products, revenue in dollar dropped during the season, totaling 369.43 million USD, 25 % lower than that received in 2018-19, according to Secex,. Among the products exported are citrus pulp pellets, citrus terpenes, d-limonene and lemon, lime and orange essential oils. Except for the citrus pulp pellets, prices for all the other by-products dropped sharply during the season.

For citrus pulp pellets, the average exports price increased during the season, but the volume shipped decreased. According to Cepea collaborators, this may be linked to the recent price rises for corn and soybean in the Brazilian market, which boosted the demand, primarily from livestock farmers, for citrus pulp pellets.

BRAZILIAN MARKET – Tahiti lime supply has been low in the major citrus-producing regions in São Paulo State. In this scenario, prices skyrocketed in June, hitting the highest average for the month, in nominal terms, in all Cepea series.

In general, tahiti lime quotes have been on the rise in the in natura market since April, due to the sales increase – related to the covid-19 pandemic – and the slower harvesting pace in May and in June – growers decided to control the harvesting in order to keep prices at higher levels. Thus, in late June, prices rose up to 60.00 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, averaging 32.42 BRL/box in the month, more than two-fold that registered in June 2019 (+124 %).

JULY – In the first fortnight of July, lower supply continued to push up prices in the Brazilian market. In general, quality was considered satisfactory, as well as fruits size and color, which favored exports. It is worth to mention that, in the first semester of 2020, the Brazilian shipments of lemon and lime hit a record for the period – compared to that in the same period last year, the volume exported was 12 % higher, and revenue, 7 % higher.

Between July 1st and 15, the average price for tathiti lime was 52.19 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 59.6 % up compared to that in the first half of June. On the other hand, the demand from the industry continued low, with only two small-sized processors receiving tahiti lime (in Artur Nogueira and Itajobi, both in SP State). Remuneration varied according to quality, ranging from 12 to 15.00 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested and delivered to processors.

ORANGE – The trading pace for in natura oranges was faster in the Brazilian market in the first fortnight of July. Although the demand for pear oranges did not increase much – because of the social distancing advice in many cities in São Paulo State –, the volume of early oranges available in the market decreased slightly (because of purchasers’ firm stance), underpinning prices.

Between July 1st and 15, the average price for pear orange was 26.01 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 3 % up compared to that in the first half of June.

The Brazilian exports of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent (2019/20 crop) are ending, and the volume sold to all destinations continues higher than that last season.

From July/19 to May/20, Brazil shipped 1.03 million tons of juice, 13 % more than that exported in the first 11 months of the 2018/19 season (913.4 thousand tons), according to data from Secex. Revenue, in turn, rose by 1 % (in the same comparison), totaling 1.7 billion USD.

To the European Union, specifically, Brazilian juice shipments totaled 723.7 thousand tons, 23 % up compared to that in the same period last season (587.7 thousand tons). Revenue amounted 1.2 billion USD, for an increase of 10 %. To the United States, Brazilian exports have decreased by 19 % this season, to 154.5 thousand tons, and the revenue downed 25 %, to 248.96 million USD.

Low demand explains the decrease in the volume sent to the US, due to the forecast for a recovery in the 2019/20 season in Florida for the second consecutive year. The state has faced several problems involving weather and plant health this season and in previous crops.

However, due to the covid-19 pandemic, juice sales in the American retail market have increased significantly – data from Nielsen indicate that, this season (from October/19 to April 11, 2020), the volume sold was 6.1 % higher than that in the same period of the crop before.

In this scenario, local juice stocks are being consumed. Although inventories are higher than that in the season before, projections indicating an increase in stocks are lower than those at the beginning of the year.

BRAZILIAN MARKET IN JUNE – The trading pace for citrus was weak in the first half of June, but the volume of oranges available in the in natura market was lower, since processing plants were receiving fruits in that period. Therefore, the average price for pear oranges in the first fortnight of the month was 25.25 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, 4.7  % down compared to that in the first half of May.

Players surveyed by Cepea reported higher sales of ponkan tangerine in São Paulo between June 1 and 15. Thus, the harvesting of this variety stepped up in that period, so that growers could take advantage of the high price levels, although fruits have not reached the ideal maturation stage yet.

A study published in the Journal of Nutrition examined the diets of over 36,000 adults in the Netherlands and reports that the intake of pure fruit juice, such as 100 % orange juice, was not associated with a higher risk for type 2 diabetes.

Consumption of any amount of fruit juice, including the highest intake category of eight or more glasses per week, was not associated with an increased risk for type 2 diabetes, according to the study. When the researchers isolated citrus juice intake (orange and grapefruit juice combined), the results were consistent – intake of citrus juices was not associated with an increased risk for diabetes.

This study reinforces the case that fruit juices are not the same as sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), particularly with respect to metabolic effects and risk for diabetes. One hundred percent fruit juices have lower glycemic index compared to SSBs and contain beneficial nutrients not found in SSBs, including vitamins, minerals, and bioactive/polyphenolic compounds.

An 8-ounce glass of 100 % orange juice is an excellent source of vitamin C, a good source of potassium, folate, and thiamin, and supplies hesperidin, a polyphenol that has been shown to have health benefits. Orange juice also counts as a fruit serving to help meet fruit intake recommendations.

The study used data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands cohort, which began collecting diet and health data in 1993 through 1997 from adults age 20 through 70. The study examined dietary records completed at baseline and categorized fruit juice intake into several intake categories ranging from none to eight or more glasses per week (one glass was considered to be approximately 5 ounces). The study identified 1,477 verified cases of type 2 diabetes over an average 14-year follow up period.

The advantage of this study is that it examined data from a large number of individuals who were followed for a long period of time. However, as a prospective cohort study, data are self-reported, and it cannot show cause and effect. While the analysis took into account important factors that could affect results, such as age, sex, education level, physical activity level, body mass index and overall diet quality, prospective cohort studies are not able to consider each and every factor that could potentially affect results.

Reference:

  • Pure Fruit Juice and Fruit Consumption Are Not Associated with Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes after Adjustment for Overall Dietary Quality in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition–Netherlands (EPIC-NL) Study
  • Floor R Scheffers, Alet H Wijga, WM Monique Verschuren, Yvonne T van der Schouw, Ivonne Sluijs, Henriëtte A Smit, and Jolanda MA Boer.
  • Journal of Nutrition. 2020 Jan 14. pii: nxz340. doi: 10.1093/jn/nxz340. [Epub ahead of print]

Production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) is higher in the 2019/20 season. The demand for fruits, in turn, was firm in 2019 because of low ending stocks of orange juice at processing companies from São Paulo. Therefore, higher demand and the record productivity in the field kept profitability positive. Moreover, the fact that most trades with the industry had been closed previously and at the same price levels observed on 2018/19 also favored profitability.

Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released a report in December indicating that the orange production in the citrus belt may increase 34.7 % in 2019/20, totaling 385.31 million 40.8-kilo boxes. Productivity per hectare is likely to reach 1,041 boxes, a record. The good result is attributed to favorable weather during flower development (in the second semester of 2018) and to the fact that plants recovered after the previous lower production.

INDUSTRY – Prices for the industrial sector concerning the contracts closed in October and November 2018 ranged from 20.00 to 22.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at processors, similar to that in the previous crop, despite the current high supply. However, for the producers who trade with companies in the spot market, values were at 20.00 BRL per box – in the previous season, they reached 26.00 BRL per box.

However, quotes in the spot market increased in December, scenario that may be related to perspectives for lower production in the 2020/21 season. As a result, one of the major processing companies started to purchase fruits at 20.00 BRL per box from December onwards – the average price most part of the crop was 18.00 BRL per box, harvested and delivered. Another major company continued to bid 18.00 BRL per box in the last month of 2019, but the price was 16.00 BRL/box during the season.

INVENTORIES – In 2019/20, the industrial demand was firm, due to low stocks at processing companies in São Paulo, of 253.18 thousand tons of orange juice in June/19, according to CitrusBR. This volume is 26.2 % lower compared to that in the 2017/18 season.

IN NATURA MARKET – Higher orange supply pressed down quotes in the in natura market in 2019. Between July and November, the average price for pear oranges was 29 % below that in the same period of 2018, in nominal terms.

However, the 2018/19 harvest was small, pushing up quotes, which hit nominal records from July to December 2018, considering Cepea series (since 1994). Compared to quotes in the 2017/18 season, price averages between July and November 2019 were 20 % higher, in nominal terms.

EXPORTS – After a season with low shipments, orange juice trades to the international market have recovered in 2019/20. The good performance is linked to the higher production in São Paulo and the possible needs to build stocks from juice bottling companies. In the partial of the season (from June to November/19), 550.13 thousand tons of orange juice were exported to all destinations, 46 % more compared to the same period last crop.

TAHITI – The market behavior was atypical in 2019. Despite the higher production, values were high throughout the year, sustained by firm demands (domestic and international). The average from January to November was 34.58 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, only 4.3 % down compared to that in 2018, in nominal terms.

Brazilian exports of tahiti lime hit a record last year. The dry weather in Mexico, major competitor regarding shipments to the European Union, favored exports good performance.

The Brazilian exports of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent have been increasing for three months. Between July and September/19 (2019/20 crop), Brazil shipped 299.7 thousand tons of the product, 27 % more than that exported in the same period last year, according to Secex. Revenue, in turn, rose 17 %, in the same comparison, totaling 520.58 million USD.

The good exports performance is largely linked to the replenishing of European inventories (the European Union is the number one destination for the Brazilian orange juice) – last season, exports to the EU had decreased. Thus, this season, juice shipments to the EU have already reached 230.4 thousand tons, 47 % up compared to the volume exported between July and September last year.

To the United States, however, the Brazilian exports of FCOJ Equivalent have been decreasing (17% between July and September), totaling only 37.1 thousand tons since the beginning of the season, in July/19. This scenario reflects the supply offset in Florida in the 2018/19 crop as well as estimates for a positive scenario in 2019/20.

For the coming months, Brazilian juice exports are expected to keep on the rise, due to the higher orange production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) and the needs of European bottling plants to replenish inventories. To the USA, in turn, the increase in the demand for the Brazilian orange juice will depend on the orange production in Florida (although greening has been controlled in the American state, local groves still suffer the effects of the disease).

BRAZILIAN MARKET IN OCTOBER – Despite the higher demand for oranges in the Brazilian in natura market in the first fortnight of October, the supply of high quality fruits was low (oranges are wilted and small). Thus, prices for higher quality oranges increased in the Brazilian market in the first half of the month. Between October 1 and 15, pear orange prices averaged 21.38 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 12.6 % up compared to that in the first fortnight of September.

As regards tahiti lime, quotes increased in São Paulo in the same period – some deals reached 100.00 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested. The scenario was linked to lower supply, since the fruits still on tree had not reached the ideal size and maturation stage to be harvested.

Between October 1 and 15, tahiti lime prices averaged 79.94 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 68.3 % up compared to that in the first half of September. On the other hand, rains in the first fortnight of October may have favored fruits growth on tree, raising expectations for an increase in supply still in October.

In June 2019, the inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) equivalent at Brazilian processing plants closed at 253.18 thousand tons, 26.2 % smaller than that in the 2017/18 season, according to data from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters).

This volume is considered small in light of historic inventories – in recent years, inventories were only lower than that in 2010/11 and in 2016/17. The worse performance of Brazilian juice exports in 2018/19, therefore, prevented juice inventories at Brazilian processing plants from decreasing to critical levels.

CitrusBR should only release data about the ending stocks from 2019/20 and 2020/21 (June/20) next year. However, according to Cepea calculations, inventories should bounce back at the processing plants from São Paulo in 2020/21, due to the large 2019/20 crop in the citrus belt.

Considering initial inventories at 253.18 thousand tons in June/19, the demand in the in natura market, between 50 and 60 million orange boxes (the remaining production is allocated to crushing), and the increase in exports, to around 1.05 million tons, Cepea estimates inventories to be around 400 thousand tons by June/20, much higher than the current levels.

Although this scenario points to high inventories (the last four seasons ended with lower inventories), the effect on orange quotes in 2020/21 will depend on the volume to be produced next season. If production is average or high, the season tends to end with large volumes stocked again, which may constrain remuneration to growers as well as price rises for orange juice.

According to Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund), the annual orange production in the Brazilian citrus belt has been oscillating between  high and low. However, it is still early to forecast the 2020/21 season, since flowering is still beginning in some groves from SP – but, considering the long drought, flowerings may be favored.

With the higher juice supply in 2019/20, shipments may bounce back from 2018/19. The needs of European distributors may favor exports, but higher demand from the United States will still depend on Florida’s production.

BRAZILIAN MARKET – The high price levels for tahiti lime hampered new deals in the in natura market from SP in August. According to agents, supply was low, since, until the end of the month, the fruits still on tree had not reached the ideal size and maturation stage to be harvested.

Drier weather limited fruits growth, which should underpin tahiti lime prices in September. Between August 1 and 31, quotes averaged 30.03 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 20.1 % up compared to that in July.

In the in natura market of pear oranges, the trading pace was slow and demand decreased in August. However, low supply underpinned prices. Thus, pear orange quotes averaged 18.26 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, in August, 1.1 % up compared to that in July.

The combination of lower orange supply in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2018/19 crop with the recovery of Florida production is keeping the Brazilian exports of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent low. This season (from July/18 to March/19), Brazilian juice shipments to all destinations have totaled 783.4 thousand tons, 14 % down compared to that in the same period last season, according to Secex. Revenue, in turn, has reached 1.4 billion USD, 12 % lower in the same comparison.

To the European Union, the biggest purchaser of the Brazilian juice, shipments have totaled 506.29 thousand tons this season, 8 % down compared to the same period last year. Revenue, in turn, has reached 941.2 million USD, 6 % down in the same comparison.

To the United States, the Brazilian exports of FCOJ Equivalent totaled 167.8 thousand tons between July/18 and March/19, 26 % less than in the same period of the previous season. Revenue reached 296.7 million USD, 27 % down in the same comparison.

The American demand for the Brazilian orange juice should not decrease too much in the coming seasons, due to the damages caused by greening, a disease with severe effects on production in the long term.

CROP END – Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) announced, on April 10, that the orange production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) has totaled 285.98 million boxes of 40.8 kilos this season, 28.2 % down compared to the output in 2017/18 (398.35 million boxes). Compared to the average in the last 10 years, the current production is 11.6% lower.

Lower productivity was triggered by the weather (heat and drought) during fruit development. Low supply, in turn, kept high the need of Brazilian processing plants for oranges in 2018, limiting availability in the in natura segment.

MARKET IN APRIL – The higher availability of early oranges in the 2019/20 crop pressed down the quotes of all varieties surveyed by Cepea in the first fortnight of April. With the maturation stage below that demanded in the in natura segment, trades were limited. Between April 1 and 15, pear orange prices averaged 35.17 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 18.8 % down compared to that in the first fortnight of March.

TAHITI LIME – Tahiti lime prices have been firm in Brazil this year, which is not typical for a first quarter. Although harvesting stepped up (which is common for the beginning of the year, due to the crop peak), high demand for exports as well as from Brazilian processing plants is controlling supply in São Paulo State.

In this scenario, the average price in April (until April 15) is already the second highest for the month, in nominal terms, considering Cepea series, which started in 1996 for this product. The same was observed in the first quarter of 2019, when the nominal average in January was only lower than in Jan/18 and the nominal averages in February and March were only lower than in the same months of 2016 – tahiti lime quotes reached nominal records in Feb. and Mar. 2016 and in Jan. 2018, in the historical series.

Agents’ initial expectations were that the harvesting of the fruits from the second blossoming would increase tahiti lime supply in the in natura market in April, despite the smaller volume compared to that in the crop peak. However, mainly in January and February, the demand from processing plants was high and prices, appealing. Thus, many growers harvested all the fruits early in the year, reducing supply in March.

Some citrus farmers accelerated the tahiti lime harvesting early in the year, aiming to prepare the trees for production in the second semester of 2019 (when prices usually rise).

In early April, according to purchasers, it was still difficult to find high quality tahiti lime in the in natura market. While mature fruits were missing, the new ones were still green – for that reason, harvesting was postponed. Higher quality fruits, in turn, were allocated to the international market. Thus, between April 1 and 15, tahiti lime quotes averaged 23.49 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, a staggering 63.6 % up compared to that in the first fortnight of March.

Data released in late February reinforced perspectives that the inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent should decrease to critical levels at the end of the current season (2018/19). Although estimates were revised up (by 36.7 %) compared to the first report, released in August/18, the volume forecast is still one of the lowest in the recent citrus activity (the second lowest since 2010/2011).

According to the report, released by CitrusBR on Feb. 26, ending stocks of FCOJ Equivalent at processors from São Paulo State (on June 30 2019) should total only 200.56 thousand tons. If confirmed, this volume would account for a 41.5 % reduction compared to that in 2017/18 (at 342.96 thousand tons). Thus, even if higher production estimates for 2019/20 are confirmed in the citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro), low juice supply may again boost the orange prices paid to Brazilian citrus farmers next year.

This scenario, in turn, reflects both the lower production in the current season (2018/19), which is almost 29 % smaller than the previous one, according to Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund), and the ending stocks in June/18 (related to the 2017/18 crop), which, although positive, were not considered too high. Besides, yield has decreased at processors this crop, due to the weather, demanding larger amounts of orange for juice production.

The increase in the volume estimated back in August/18 compared to that from February/19 may be linked to the reduction in the Brazilian juice exports, due to both lower demand from the main importing countries and processors strategy of keeping larger volumes stocked at the end of the 2018/19 season. Still, ending stocks in the new season will be lower than the strategic level established, at 300 thousand tons, reinforcing the predictions for firm prices paid to Brazilian citrus farmers – for both those who sell oranges to the industry and the ones who sell to the in natura market.

In fact, the first bids from large-sized processors for the oranges from the 2019/20 season started earlier again (in October/18). Bidding prices were around 22 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at processors, to which may still be added a participation additional to the juice selling price in the international market. In 2018/19, the first bidding prices were up to 20 BRL per box. Trades, however, have already been reduced or ended.

BRAZILIAN MARKET – The availability of high quality oranges was low in SP State in February, pushing up quotes of all the varieties surveyed by Cepea. Between Feb. 1 and 28, pear orange quotes averaged 40.66 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 33.6 % up compared to that in January (2 – 31).

The production decrease in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in 2018/19 was confirmed by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in a report released on December 10. Despite the increase compared to that estimated in September, data indicate that the current crop should be 30.8 % smaller than the previous, totaling only 275.7 million 40.8-boxes of oranges.

In this scenario, orange juice inventories at processors are predicted to decrease to critical levels again by June 2019, which may ensure a balanced supply for the following year, even if orange production increases in 2019/20 – as expected by agents. According to CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters), juice inventories are forecast at 146.7 thousand tons, only enough for two months exports, at the most.

According to Fundecitrus, estimates increased because of the higher moisture in the citrus belt, which allowed the fruits to grow, mainly pear and late oranges.

However, in the first semester of 2018, the lack of rains hampered oranges growth and weakened plants vigor, and the fruits were vulnerable to drops and diseases. Thus, the drop rate this year (until November) is already higher than Fundecitrus expected.

In the field, pear orange harvesting has already reached 83% of the total volume expected, while the harvesting of valência and natal oranges has reached 66 %. Considering all varieties, 78 % of the total production has been harvested, similar to that from the same period last year (75 %). In light of that, agents expect the 2018/19 harvesting to end earlier, which may push up orange quotes in early 2019, when supply is usually low.

Despite the smaller volume forecast for the coming months, agents from processors believe crushing should not be interrupted between the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019 (when at least one plant of each processor should be operating). With the slower fruits growth in the first semester, crushing increased in mid-August, due to the ratio out of the standard desired for pear oranges.

BRAZILIAN MARKET – Orange consumption increased in early December, boosted by the payment of workers’ wages and the warmer weather in São Paulo State. However, rains accelerated fruits growth, which led farmers to fasten the harvesting pace in order to avoid losses. In that scenario, supply increased and pressed down quotes.

Besides, the higher availability of stone fruits, which is common for this time of the year, hampered the demand for oranges in the Brazilian market in the first fortnight of December, helping to lower prices.

Consumers can follow the route of their orange juice, using blockchain

Dutch supermarket chain Albert Heijn and Refresco have made transparent the supply chain of Albert Heijn’s own brand of ambient orange juice, using blockchain technology to do so. Refresco supplies Albert Heijn with this juice, sourced from Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC)’s juice business. Never before have consumers been able to follow the chain of a product like orange juice in this way. They can see, via a QR code, which route the oranges have traveled up until the juice is in a bottle on the store shelf. With this complete traceability, the next step is taken in transparency for consumers.

Marit van Egmond, Commercial Director Albert Heijn: ‘We supply millions of customers with good food and drink on a daily basis. This brings with it a large responsibility, and we want to actively contribute to current themes in the world around us. We are making our products healthier, are working on reducing food waste and we look at how to reduce our impact on the environment. The importance of transparency in the supply chain continues to increase. We know all the steps in the supply chain of our products, to ensure they are produced with respect for people, animals and the environment. And we want to show these steps to our clients as well, be open and transparent’.

Albert Heijn has long-standing relationships with fixed producers and suppliers for its 11,000 Albert Heijn brand products. In some cases, a production process can be made transparent relatively easily, for example, with fruits and vegetables from the Netherlands. It is more difficult for other products because they have a longer chain or consist of multiple ingredients. By using blockchain, a technology that records every step in the chain, it is possible to show customers how and by whom these products are made.

Albert Heijn and Refresco are using blockchain for the first time with AH’s ambient orange juice. The data from the steps in the production chain is linked and made transparent. The blockchain was developed in cooperation with Supply Chain Information Management (SIM), an expert in visualizing and providing continuous insight into chains via research and databases.

Juicy details
Via a QR code on the packaging, customers can follow the entire route that their orange juice has traveled before it ended up in their shopping basket. It starts in Brazil at the orange groves managed by LDC Juice, where the fruit is harvested. Among other things, the quality standards that LDC Juice has for food safety and sustainability are recorded there. The blockchain also contains information about the oranges themselves, including the harvest date range and degree of sweetness. Consumers can see these details in the chain and even send a compliment to the growers with the “Like2Farmer” functionality.

Maarten Kusters, Managing Director Refresco Benelux: ‘This is a unique way of bringing together the grower, processor, bottler, retailer and consumer and making the entire process of fruit juice production traceable and transparent. We are pleased that we can make a contribution in this way as Albert Heijn’s partner. Being the world’s largest independent producer of juices and soft drinks, Refresco is committed to a sustainable fruit juice sector. We aim for 100 % sustainably-sourced juice by 2030 in fruit juice products of our clients. In support of this ambition, we co-founded the Sustainable Juice Covenant last year, alongside other leading industry players.’

Murilo Parada, Head of LDC’s Juice Platform: ‘This project has been a great opportunity for LDC Juice to highlight the various steps in the juice journey in a transparent way. Seeing the details, from grove to bottle, helps consumers understand LDC’s sustainable juice value chain. LDC completed the first agricultural commodity trade through blockchain in January 2018 and is convinced that there are tremendous opportunities by using the technology as an enabler of digital transformation.’

The smaller crop forecast for the Brazilian citrus belt in 2018/19 (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro), at 288.29 million 40.8-kilo boxes (almost 30 % lower than the 2017/18 season), should result in critical inventories at processors from São Paulo State on June 30 2019. In 2017//18, despite the larger crop, supply was not significant, only enough to slightly increase the low inventories from 2016/17.

Thus, by June 2019, inventories should be 50 % smaller, considering forecasts for the 2018/19 crop. Data released by CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) on May 22 estimated ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent from 55.9 thousand tons to 154.7 thousand tons in June 2019. CitrusBR forecasts were based on the volumes crushed in the 2017/18 season, at around 243.4 million 40.8-kilo boxes, 34% down compared to the 370 million boxes crushed in the current season (2017/18).

Cepea calculations, however, indicate inventories are more likely to be from 55.9 to 102.6 thousand tons, not reaching the maximum level estimated by CitrusBR (at 154.7 thousand tons). To forecast that scenario, CitrusBR considered exportations will keep firm. Now, if processors do not aim to reduce inventories that much, the volume shipped may decrease in 2018/19.

The 2017/18 ending stocks of orange juice should be at 305.9 thousand tons by June 30 2018, 20.3 % up compared to that forecast in February/18. The positive 2017/18 harvesting ensured comfortable inventories to processors this year.

n general, the global demand for orange juice has been firm, mainly from the United States, Considering Florida crop may be 35 % lower, according to the USDA, juice availability should continue low in the next season (2019/20).

Regarding growers’ revenue, forecasts for the short-term indicate prices may not change much. Most farmers have already closed contracts with processors, and even if bidding prices rise from now onward, only a few growers would have fruits available for trading. Besides, productivity should be low, since the number of boxes produced per hectare results in a higher cost per unit and lower margins.

BRAZILIAN MARKET – Although the trading pace in the Brazilian citrus market slowed down in the second week of June, the supply of oranges in the stages demanded by the in natura market from São Paulo decreased, since delivery of these fruits to processors stepped up early in the month, when truckers’ strike ended. Thus, in the first fortnight of June, pear orange quotes averaged 25.52 BRL per 40.8-kilo, on tree, 1 % down compared to that in the same period of May.

As for tahiti lime, harvesting started again (after the end of truckers’ strike), pressing down quotes as well. Besides, demand was weakened in the domestic market. In the first fortnight of June, tahiti lime quotes averaged 36.36 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 26.1 % down compared to that between May 1 and 15.

The smaller crop forecast for the Brazilian citrus belt in 2018/19 (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro), at 288.29 million 40.8-kilo boxes (almost 30 % lower than the 2017/18 season), should result in critical inventories at processors from São Paulo State on June 30 2019. In 2017//18, despite the larger crop, supply was not significant, only enough to slightly increase the low inventories from 2016/17.

Thus, by June 2019, inventories should be 50 % smaller, considering forecasts for the 2018/19 crop. Data released by CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) on May 22 estimated ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent from 55.9 thousand tons to 154.7 thousand tons in June 2019. CitrusBR forecasts were based on the volumes crushed in the 2017/18 season, at around 243.4 million 40.8-kilo boxes, 34 % down compared to the 370 million boxes crushed in the current season (2017/18).

Cepea calculations, however, indicate inventories are more likely to be from 55.9 and 102.6 thousand tons, not reaching the maximum level estimated by CitrusBR (at 154.7 thousand tons). To forecast that scenario, CitrusBR considered exportations will keep firm. Now, if processors do not aim to reduce inventories that much, the volume shipped may decrease in 2018/19.

The 2017/18 ending stocks of orange juice should be at 305.9 thousand tons by June 30 2018, 20.3 % up compared to that forecast in February/18. The positive 2017/18 harvesting ensured comfortable inventories to processors this year.

In general, the global demand for orange juice has been firm, mainly from the United States, Considering Florida crop may be 35 % lower, according to the USDA, juice availability should continue low in the next season (2019/20).

Regarding growers’ revenue, forecasts for the short-term indicate prices may not change much. Most farmers have already closed contracts with processors, and even if bidding prices rise from now onward, only a few growers would have fruits available for trading. Besides, productivity should be low, since the number of boxes produced per hectare results in a higher cost per unit and lower margins.

BRAZILIAN MARKET – Orange sales were slow in the in natura market in May, due to both colder weather in São Paulo and truckers’ strike, which halted transportation. With the protests, which started on May 21, part of the fruits harvested stayed on trucks.
In that scenario, growers preferred to interrupt harvesting late in the month, aiming to avoid losses. In May (2 – 30), pear orange quotes averaged 26.33 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 11.7 % down compared to that in April (2 – 30).

TAHITI LIME – The strike has affected the domestic and international markets of tahiti lime as well. According to Cepea collaborators, purchasers were concerned about acquiring fruits and not receiving them, while growers feared to be affected by flow difficulties. Farmers consulted by Cepea affirmed that the fruits that are still on tree should not be damaged by the harvesting interruption.

In May (2 – 30), tahiti lime quotes averaged 45.13 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 142.5 % up compared to that in April (2 – 30).

On Wednesday, May 9, Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released new estimates for the 2018/19 season, reducing production in the citrus belt (São Paulo State and Triângulo Mineiro) by 27.6 % compared to that in the previous crop. According to the report, harvesting in that region should total only 288.29 million orange boxes (40.8-kilo) in 18/19, 11 % down compared to the historical average of the sector.

Lower estimates from Fundecitrus have confirmed Cepea forecasts for a smaller output in 2018/19, due to the damages and losses observed in the main flowering event (from August to October last year), mainly for pear oranges. That scenario was linked to the dry weather and high temperatures during the settlement of the flowers that would become the oranges from the new season. Still, the first estimates indicated losses around 20 %, which could result in a higher production than that forecast.

Ending stocks for orange juice should be 22 % larger on June 30, 2018 (at 254.2 thousand tons), according to CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters), but that is still the fourth lowest volume in the last 20 years. Thus, the citrus belt would have to harvest, once again, high amounts, in order to ensure comfortable inventories at processors. The demand for orange juice has been firm, mainly from the United States, making the global supply and demand scenario even more difficult.

However, in the short-term, growers’ revenue may not increase significantly, since most of them have already closed anticipated trades with processors – trades have been closed since November last year. Thus, only a few growers still have fruits available for trading.

Currently, only one of the large-sized processors has been purchasing fruits in the spot market. Before the new estimates were released, quotes for all varieties were at 15 BRL per 40.8-kilo, harvested and delivered at the processor. However, prices may increase as the crop nears and more processors enter the market.

In the mid-term, on the other hand, forecasts for the next season (2019/20) are more positive, considering juice inventories may be empty by June 2019. Besides, with the smaller output in Florida, international demand for the commodity should continue firm during the season. There are concerns with the weather in the coming months as well, which may lower the volume forecast even more.

BRAZILIAN MARKET – Orange sales increased in the in natura market in early May. According to growers, the beginning of the month, when workers’ wages are paid, may have favored demand. However, the average price for that variety in the first fortnight of the month was 19 % lower than in the first fortnight of April. That scenario is linked to higher supply in São Paulo, as well as the slow crushing pace at processors, which led orange sales exclusively to the in natura market (these fruits would be allocated to processors for crushing). Between May 2 and 15, pear orange quotes averaged 25.81 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 19 % down compared to that in the first fortnight of April (2 – 13).

Tahiti lime quotes, however, continued at high levels in that period, both in the domestic market and for exportation. According to growers, the fruits still on tree have a good quality, but have not reached the ideal size to be harvested yet – due to the lack of rains in São Paulo. Thus, tahiti lime quotes averaged 49.17 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, between May 2 and 15, a staggering 174.2 % up compared to the price average in the first fortnight of April.

New estimates for the 2017/18 orange production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) may affect ending stocks of the season, on June 30, 2018. Data released by CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) indicate that the larger orange harvest may more than double the juice volume held by processing companies in São Paulo, compared to the same period last season.

The Association says that the season may finish with juice inventories at 254.2 thousand tons (equivalent to concentrate juice), which represents 12 weeks of consumption. This figure is 22 % higher than that estimated in August 2017; however, it is still the fourth lowest over the last 20 years.

Although still uncertain, initial expectations indicate that the 2018/19 orange production will be smaller than in the current season, except in southwestern São Paulo (Avaré and surroundings), where the weather may allow production similar to that in 2017/18. Therefore, there is nothing indicating orange juice surplus, also based on the good performance of exportations.

The recovery of inventories compared to the CitrusBR projection released in August was already expected by the sector, given that estimates for the orange crop, performed by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund), has already been reviewed upwards three times since the first release of CitrusBR. In the first estimate (May/17), Fundecitrus forecast 364.5 million 40.8-kilo boxes in São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro; however, due to favorable weather conditions during the season and better cultural practices, that estimate was revised up to 397.27 million boxes on the projection released on February, 15.

The good rainfall, on the other hand, may affect industrial revenue (number of necessary orange boxes to produce one ton of concentrate juice). CitrusBR data indicate that, on the average of the season, 282.49 orange boxes may be necessary for each juice ton, 5.7 % more compared to the previous estimate (August).

2017/18 CROP – According to Fundecitrus data released on February 15, the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) may produce 397.27 million 40.8-kilo boxes of oranges in the 2017/18 season, 62 % more than in the 2016/17 season (245.3 million boxes) and 3.13 % higher in relation to December forecasts. Fundecitrus says that, considering all varieties, 97 % of the total of the crop has already been harvested.

The survey conducted by independent auditing firms with each of CitrusBR associate member companies and consolidated by external auditing ascertained that global inventories of Brazilian orange juice, converted into Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice Equivalent (FCOJ  66° Brix)  at CitrusBR associate members’ facilities on December 31, 2017, amounted to 702,981 tons.

This volume indicates an increase of 205,598 tons or 41.3% when compared to the 497,383 tons existing 12 months before on December 31, 2016. The same survey indicates that on June 30th, 2018, the global inventories of Brazilian Orange Juice are anticipated to be 254.2 thousand tons of FCOJ Equivalent 66° Brix.

This projection, if confirmed, will represent an increase of 146,813 tons as compared to the 107,387 tons which were existing at all CitrusBR members’ facilities on June 30th, 2017, as previously informed to the market.

Click for download PDF file

 

A new edition of Tetra Pak’s Orange Book is now available free online.

Alongside the latest technologies and consumer insights, the book points to a recent Tetra Pak study that shows how small the impact of pasteurization is on the levels of vitamin C in orange juice. On average, the process reduces the amount of vitamin C by less than 2 %, the report notes.

Maria Norlin, Juice, Nectars and Still Drinks Sub-category Manager at Tetra Pak said, “Juice remains a significant part of the average consumer diet around the world. Our studies show that pasteurization causes minimal impact on vitamin C retention while securing a safer product with longer shelf life for the consumer. We hope this gives customers the evidence they need to communicate the nutritional values of orange juice with consumers.”

Drawing on the company’s 60 years’ experience in juice processing and its global expertise, the Tetra Pak Orange Book is the only book available that covers the entire orange juice production chain, from quality control of the fruits to regional consumer insights.
The book is free to read http://orangebook.tetrapak.com/.

Hurricane Irma, which hit Florida on September 10, should damage the local citrus groves. Since it reached a wide area, all citrus producing regions should be affected, mainly central and southwestern state.
In an interview for ABC News, the executive director of the Florida Citrus Department, Shannon Stepp, said that production was likely to surpass 75 million boxes, as estimated by Elizabeth Steger before the hurricane hit. Now, the director expects numbers to decrease sharply.

There are no official estimates regarding the damages caused by Irma hurricane yet, but the press has reported damages between 10 % and 80 %, depending on the area and the variety. The press has also released reports from local growers estimating damages at 1.2 billion USD to the agricultural production, including citrus, sugarcane, tomatoes, green beans, cucumber and others. Besides, fruits and trees drops were observed, as well as floods in citrus groves from Florida.

ORANGE JUICE – At the New York Exchange Stock (ICE Futures), the future contracts of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) due in November/17 increased in the second week of September, with the announcement of hurricane Irma by the United States. Thus, between September 5 and 12, values rose 19.12 %, averaging 2,191.59 USD per ton.

In this scenario, citrus growers from all over the world are focused on the impacts of Irma hurricane on global demand for orange juice. For Brazil, that scenario would only reinforce the need of importation from the United States, since inventories from North-American processors are low. Therefore, a larger crop in the citrus belt from São Paulo may help Brazil to meet that demand.

According to the last report from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund), released on September 11, the 2017/18 crop was estimated at 374.06 million 40.8-kilo boxes in São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro. That volume is 2.63 % larger than that first estimated in May, and 52.5 % higher than that in the previous season (2016/17), which ended with 245.3 million boxes. This inventory increase was favored by rains in the first semester (April to June/17), which boosted fruits growth, mainly for the early fruits, whose harvest had reached 75 % of the total area in mid-July.

Confirming initial expectations of Cepea, ending stocks of orange juice at processors from São Paulo State should be recovered by the end of the 2017/18 season (June/18), but the levels stored continue to indicate low orange juice supply.

Data from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) indicate that inventories at Cutrale, Citrosuco and Louis Dreyfus should total only 207.6 thousand tons of frozen concentrate orange juice (FCOJ) Equivalent on June 30, 2018. That amount, however, is 93 % higher than the 107 thousand tons observed at the end of the 2016/17 season.

This increase of inventory is based on crushing forecasts of CitrusBR at 314.47 million boxes, with an average processing yield at 267.33 boxes to produce one ton of FCOJ Equivalent, and sales (domestic and international) at 1.107 million tons of the product. All these items are forecast to recover from the scenario observed last season (2016/17); however, yield should remain at levels below the historical average.

A significant recovery will only be possible due to a large crop in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro), forecast by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) at 364.47 million boxes. However, the possibility of replenishments of inventories (greater than 200 thousand tons) in June 2019 will depend, once again, on a large production at the citrus belt in the 2018/19 season. According to Cepea data, if sales, yield and volume from other states continue stable, processors will need to crush around 290 million boxes in 2018/19, meaning a crop in the citrus belt from SP + Triângulo Mineiro similar or greater than 340 million boxes (in natura consumption forecast at 50 million).

The replenishment of inventories at processors from São Paulo is a relief in light of the very low supply in the previous crop, when the Brazilian exportations of FCOJ Equivalent dropped 17 %. Therefore, forecasts for a higher orange juice supply may increase the Brazilian exportations in the 2017/18 season.

DOMESTIC MARKET – Pear orange quotes increased in the domestic market in the first fortnight of August, due to higher demand for the in natura fruit (favored by warmer weather in SP and the return of school classes) and crushing intensification in processors from São Paulo, which gradually reduced the volume available in the market. Between August 1 and 15, pear orange quotes averaged 16.54 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 1.4 % up compared to the first fortnight of July (3-14).