Brazilian shipments of orange juice to the European Union increased in January, which raised expectations for further increases in following months. However, sales to the EU declined again in February, somewhat discouraging market participants. Although exports to the United States remain firm, demand from Europe still needs to increase to support shipments.

Up to the 2023/24 season, exports to all destinations typically surpassed 1 million tons. In the 2024/25 crop, however, shipments totaled 775.6 thousand tons, 22.7 % less than in 2023/24.

In the accumulated of the 2025/26 season (from July/25 to February/26), Brazilian shipments of concentrate orange juice (66° brix) were at 549.96 thousand tons, considering data converted into FCOJ, downing 3.8 % compared to that recorded in 2024/25. The income, in turn, was at USD 1.885 billion in the first eight months of the season, for a decrease of 27.1 % in the same comparison – data from Secex.

OJ exports to the European Union amounted 250.2 thousand tons from July/25 to February/26, decreasing 55.7 thousand tons in relation to that verified in the same period of the season before. In February alone, Brazil shipped 24.5 thousand tons to the EU, against 49.8 thousand tons in January. Brazil would have to export 35.5 thousand tons per month until the end of the season (over the next four months) to reach the volume shipped to the EU last crop (392.1 thousand tons).

Shipments to the United States amounted 256.1 thousand tons between July and February, 23 % more than that verified in the same period of the crop before.

New research reveals that 100 % orange juice provides a slower, more controlled rise in blood sugars than sugar sweetened drinks, challenging assumptions that all sugary drinks lead to similar blood sugar “spikes”.

The randomised controlled cross-over trial, published in the peer-reviewed journal Food & Function, involved 25 healthy young men who consumed four different drinks on separate days: 100 % orange juice, a 50 % orange juice drink with added sugars, a sugar-sweetened water drink and a pure glucose drink.

Researchers observed that, while pure orange juice and sugar-sweetened drinks can have the same overall sugar content, the body processes natural and added sugars differently thanks to the food structure.

100 % orange juice produced a slower rise – and lower “spike” – in blood sugars compared with the sugar-sweetened drinks – which were matched exactly to the balance of sugars in natural orange juice. While the rise and fall in blood sugars eventually evened out over two hours, the natural sugars from orange juice entered the bloodstream more gradually. This steadier absorption may help explain why some people experience a gradual feeling of energy after drinking 100 % orange juice, compared with the sharper “spike and dip” sometimes associated with sugar sweetened drinks.

Scientists think the difference comes down to structure. While soft drinks generally deliver sugar in isolation, 100 % orange juice contains what is known as a “fruit matrix” — the natural mix of tiny fibre fragments, plant bioactives, vitamins and minerals found in oranges and other whole fruit. This structure appears to moderate how quickly sugar enters the bloodstream.

Lead researcher, Professor Francisco A. Tomás-Barberán, of the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), explained: “People often assume that because fruit juice contains natural sugars from the fruit, it must act in the same way as a sugary soft drink. Our findings clearly show this is not the case. “When sugars are consumed within the natural fruit matrix of 100 % orange juice, absorption is slower and the early blood glucose peak is lower. Food structure matters. “Although public health guidance often groups all “free sugars” together, our study demonstrates that sugars naturally present in fruit juice do not produce the same metabolic response as exactly the same sugars added to drinks.”

The concept of blood sugar spikes has become a hot topic, with influencers and some health commentators urging people to avoid rapid glucose rises.

Award-winning dietitian Dr. Carrie Ruxton commented: “People are now so worried about ‘sugar spikes’ that some are using wearable technologies, like glucose monitors, to test their reaction to different foods and drinks. While I don’t think this is helpful unless recommended by a doctor, it’s reassuring to know that 100 % orange juice is better for blood glucose control than other types of sweet drinks. “Even with the same overall sugars, the natural fruit matrix of 100 % orange juice slows down absorption creating a more gradual rise in blood glucose levels. That could mean more sustained energy levels after your morning glass juice. The fruit matrix in 100 % juices also delivers vitamin C for immune function and skin, potassium for blood pressure and a range of fruit bioactives for mental function and cardiovascular health”.

The open-access study is available to view in full.

The 2025/26 orange season is nearing its end in the citrus belt in São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro. Players surveyed by Cepea report that the harvested volumes have already declined. As the season winds down, major processors still receiving fruits are concentrating operations in only a few processing units.

The most recent report by Fundecitrus, released in late January, indicated that only 13 % of the total volume estimated for the 2025/26 season was left to be harvested. It is likely that less than 5 % of the crop remains unharvested in late February.

The return of processing activities involving 2026/27 oranges is expected to take place between April and May.

As for prices, data from Cepea indicate that quotations of pear oranges delivered at the industry have averaged BRL 34.53 per 40.8-kilo box in February (up to Feb. 26), downing 7.69 % in relation to that in January.

Concerning in natura market, the supply of high-quality fruits has been decreasing. The demand, in turn, is still firm. In the partial of February, values of pear oranges have averaged BRL 41.40 per 40.8-kg box, on tree, for a decrease of 2.87 % against the first month of 2026.

As the 2025/26 season is close to the end, the sector is now focusing on weather conditions and its consequent impacts on the development of the 2026/27 crop.

Total orange production1 is updated at 292.60 million boxes

The third update of the 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with professor (retired) from FCAV/Unesp2, is 292.60 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90-pound box). In comparison to the May forecast, the crop season is expected to yield 22 million fewer boxes, a decline of 7%. Compared to the last forecast released in December, which projected 294.81 million boxes, the new estimate indicates a 0.7% reduction, corresponding to a decrease of 2.21 million boxes. This downward trend is due to the estimated smaller average size of late variety oranges, namely Valencia, Folha Murcha, and Natal. It is also estimated that approximately 25.73 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region.

From May 2025 to January 2026, the average accumulated rainfall in the citrus belt was 862 millimeters, which represents a 10% deficit in relation to the historical average (1991-2020), …

Please download the complete forecast here.

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera, Valencia, Folha Murcha and Natal.
²Department of Exact Sciences, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

Heavy rains in January affected the citrus market, especially the in natura segment. High humidity increased the incidence of fungus on trees, leading fruits to drop and affecting the quality. Part of the production that is sent to the industry ends up lost, while another share hits the market with low quality, pressing down quotations in a scenario of high supply.

In spite of the high humidity, January ended with relative stable prices of pear oranges for the industry. Players say that processing activities have been reducing gradually in some units in São Paulo, while other have directed part of their capacity to crush the tahiti lime.

The price average in January was at BRL 37.17 per 40.8-kilo box, stable in relation to December (BRL 37.05/box).

As for the tahiti lime, the high supply continues to press down values. Players surveyed by Cepea say that, due to low quotations verified in previous weeks, producers keep fruits on trees for longer, and they are likely to fall.

The price average for the tahiti lime is at BRL 22.97 per 27.2-kilo box in the last week of January, downing 9 % compared to that in the period before. Quotations for the fruit to export were at BRL 26.71 per 27.2-kilo box, for a decrease of 8 %.

2026 tends to be one of the most challenging year for the citrus sector in Brazil. Although the 2025/26 crop presents a good volume of production, close to 300 million boxes of 40.8-kg, this potential has been partially affected by the high rate of fruit droppage, due to greening and citrus canker, in addition to unfavorable weather conditions in important developmental stages.

At the same time, the demand for orange juice is low in Europe, hindering trades of the commodity in current price levels. As the pace of trades is slow, juice stocks tend to increase at processing companies, reducing the need of the industry to buy new fruit loads. Therefore, the competition between juice sellers and purchasers intensifies, while the industry is more careful about purchases.

A possible recovery of the OJ consumption tends to be gradual. Price drops to final consumers progress slowly, and the demand in the Northern Hemisphere tends to be more limited, due to the winter period. Therefore, in the summer 2026, the demand may increase again, favoring a reaction in OJ sales and in the consumption of inventories.

Concerning oranges, the 2025/26 season is likely to finish with a volume that is slightly lower than 300 million 40.8-kg boxes in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro. Still, the crop has been leading to a recovery of inventories, since it presented high-quality fruits. As for the 2026/27 season, greening and citrus canker concern producers, boosting production costs and limiting productivity gains.

As for the development of the 2026/27 crop, the heterogeneous weather among regions tends to result in distinct conditions in producing regions.

Pear orange prices to the industry started 2025 at high levels (BRL 88 per 40.8-kilo box in the first weeks of the year), influenced by the limited supply and the firm demand for fruits, which had presented good quality up until then.

However, prices dropped in the following months. Inventories of orange juice with lower quality and the low demand for new orange batches from the industry led quotations offered by citrus growers to decrease in the second quarter of the year. Moreover, in May, Fundecitrus projected a higher crop in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro, at 314.6 million 40.8-kg boxes.

The high rate of fruit droppage has been in the spotlight since the beginning of the season. Fundecitrus indicated in December that the rate had reached 23 % due to diseases such as the citrus greening and unfavorable weather conditions. Therefore, Fundecitrus reduced the production estimate for the 2025/26 season to 294.81 million boxes.

In addition to that, the sector faced months of uncertainties about the possible US tariff on orange juice imports from Brazil. However, in July, the US government decided to exempt the national product from the extra tariff of 40 %, but keeping the 10 % tax, which was in effect until November 10, 2025. Currently, only the USD 415/ton tariff is in effect.

In spite of that, the performance of exports in the beginning of the season (between July and November 2025) was still below that registered in the same period of the season before.

In this scenario of a delayed crop and of contracts established later and at smaller volumes, the pressure on values was intensified in the last quarter of the year.

Total orange production¹ is updated at 294.81 million boxes

The second update of the 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on December 10, 2025, by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with professor (retired) from FCAV/Unesp2, is 294.81 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90-pound box). In comparison to the May forecast, the crop season is expected to yield 19.79 million fewer boxes, a decline of 6.3 %. Compared to the last forecast released in September, which projected 306.74 million boxes, the new estimate indicates a 3.9 % reduction, corresponding to a decrease of 11.9 million boxes. This downward trend is due to the estimated smaller average size of oranges and a higher rate of premature fruit drop. It is also estimated that approximately 25.83 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region.

When the last updated forecast was disclosed in September, the harvest pace indicated that a significant portion of the Pera variety crop would be harvested after the more intense rains expected during spring. However, rainfall in September …

Please download the complete forecast here.

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera, Valencia, Folha Murcha and Natal.
²Department of Exact Sciences, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

Rains in the second half of November favoured most producing regions in the citrus belt (São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro), supporting development of the 2026/27 crop and improving fruit quality for the 2025/26 season.

However, in several areas, rainfall came with strong winds and hail, damaging trees, fruits and flowers. Players surveyed by Cepea say the frequency of extreme weather events this year is a concern.

Prices

Despite the good fruit quality, in natura orange prices dropped in late November, pressured by the devaluation observed in the industry. Between November 24 and 27, pear orange in the spot market averaged BRL 38.44 per 40.8-kg box, down 1.82 % compared to that in the period before. In the in natura market, pear orange quotations decreased 5.29 % this week compared to the previous, closing at BRL 53.30 per 40.8-kg box. In the accumulated of the month, prices moved down 14.7 %.

Tariffs

The export sector of citrus products gained an important tariff relief in late November. The government from the United States exempted the additional tariff of 10 % for the orange juice. As for byproducts (essential oils, therapeutic byproducts and orange pulp), the 10 % tax continues, but they were exempted from the 40 % tariff.

This is good news for the sector, since it faces a slow pace of OJ shipments, especially to Europe. The European Union has been purchasing less than the usual. Therefore, the reduction of costs to send the product to the US market may favor sales of the Brazilian product, compensating the smaller demand from Europe.

Exporters had good perspectives for the 2025/26 season of orange juice, especially due to the exemption of the US tariff on imports of the commodity from Brazil and to the increase in the orange production in São Paulo state.

However, the limited demand from Europe kept international sales of orange juice below-expected from July to October 2025. As for November, shipments may continue to register low performance, since European acquisitions are still moving at a slow pace.

As a result, players from the crushing industry in São Paulo state have been cautious about purchasing fruits, keeping only contracts closed before and buying exclusively in the spot market – purchasers have been offering lower quotations, from BRL 35 to BRL 38.00 per box, delivered at the industry in SP.

The impacts of the pressure from the industry have started to hit the market of in natura fruits. Due to low values paid by the processing industry, part of the production is expected to be allocated to the in natura market, which can increase the supply in the wholesale supply center and, consequently, press down quotations to producers.

Sales of oranges in the in natura market moved at a slow pace in late October. Many consumers were waiting to receive wages in November, leading agents to reduce trades. Therefore, prices, which were moving up in previous weeks, dropped at the end of the month.

According to data from Cepea, pear oranges quotations in the in natura market moved down 0.19 % between Oct. 27 and 30 compared to the previous, closing at BRL 61.47 per 40.8-kg box. Concerning lima oranges, prices averaged BRL 84.13 per box, 7.19 % up.

As for the tahiti lime, prices decreased due to the low demand and to a slight supply increase. The average was at BRL 40.35 per 27.2-kg box in late October, downing 32.39 % compared to the period before. Quotations of the tahiti lime to export have averaged BRL 46.15 per box, 26.56 % down.

At the industry, agents surveyed by Cepea say that orange prices were firm at the end of the month, at around BRL 50.00 per 40.8 kg box. Orange juice sales to the international market were moving at a slow pace. Thus, the sector waits for shipments results in October and November to have better indications of the demand from abroad.

The Southeastern region in Brazil, especially citrus areas in São Paulo, Paraná and part of Minas Gerais, registered rains in the first week of spring. Although this scenario brings optimism, since it favours the upcoming blossoming, strong winds caused fruit droppage. Players surveyed by Cepea say that the region of Avaré (São Paulo) was one of the most affected areas.

The return of the rainfall is extremely important for the 2026/27 blossoming to be in the normal standard, which was not verified last year – after a warm and dry winter, rains returned more consistently after October, which delayed the current crop.

The intensification of the fruit droppage is the main factor that led Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) to decrease the estimate for the 2025/26 season. The second report, released in early September, indicated that the production may reach 306.74 million 40.8 kg boxes in the citrus belt (São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro), 2.5 % less (or -7.86 million boxes) than that indicated in May.

The current report confirms that the fruit droppage is more critical than what had been projected previously. Some areas register losses that are close to 10 %, while others face a percentage up to 45 %. On average, the fruit droppage rate is at 22 %, two percentage points more than the initial forecast.

The Huanglongbing greening (citrus greening disease) hits 47.63 % of the citrus belt. The number of contaminated plants rose 7.4 % this year, reaching roughly 100 thousand (209 thousand were evaluated).

Ending stocks

Orange juice ending stocks (by June/26) may recover in the 2025/26 season, after four consecutive crops at very low volume.

CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released a report in early September about the 2024/25 season: inventories of frozen concentrate orange juice – FCOJ (66º Brix) totaled 146.3 thousand tons, 25.3 % more than in the previous crop. Although it is still low, the volume surprised players, since the fruit supply is scarce, leading orange prices to record levels and imposing difficulties for the industry to produce juice with good ratio. Both restricted quality and high values limited sales to the international market in the last season. According to data from Secex/Comexstat, the volume exported in 2024/25 was at 776.8 thousand tons, downing 22.6 % in relation to the crop before and the smallest since 1997, when the series has started.

Cepea calculations indicate that, due to the progress of the 2025/26 season and the improvement of the juice quality (since pear oranges will join the crushing), inventories may finish the season (June/26) close or higher than 200 thousand tons. If confirmed, it will be the first time in a half decade that the sector will leave the critical volume behind (below 150 thousand tons). However, in order for inventories to reach this level, the consumption needs to return to volumes before 2024/25, the juice productivity needs to be on the average over the last five crops (278 40.8-kg boxes per juice ton) and the industry needs to process at least 260 million boxes.

Total orange production¹ is updated at 306.74 million boxes

The first update of the 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on September 10, 2025, by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with professor (retired) from FCAV/Unesp², is 306.74 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90-pound box). Compared with the May estimate, the crop season is expected to yield 7.86 million fewer boxes, a decline of 2.5 %, due to a higher projected rate of premature fruit drop. Analysing by maturity group, the early-season varieties decrease by approximately 6.1 %, the mid-season (Pera) by 1.2 %, and the late-season varieties by 1.6 %. It is also estimated that approximately 25.84 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region.

According to Climatempo Meteorologia, from May to August 2025 the average accumulated rainfall in the citrus belt was 94 millimeters, which corresponds to a 33 % deficit in relation to the historical average (1991- 2020) …

Please download the complete forecast here.

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera, Valencia, Folha Murcha and Natal.
²Department of Exact Sciences, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

The volume of oranges of the 2025/26 season sent to industrial crushing activities started to be intensified in late August. As for new contracts of fruits to the industry, the pace has increased, but it still limited, since both purchasers and sellers are expecting a better definition of market conditions.

It is worth noting that the production of the 2025/26 crop is late, due to the second blossoming. Thus, the availability of fruits may be higher in September/October. Moreover, prices paid in 2024 were high, leading many producers to make cash flow and, now, they can wait for better trading opportunities.

As for the industry, inventories built at the beginning of the season have still not reached a satisfactory standard, due to high limonin and low ratio of some batches. These characteristics have limited the attractiveness of the Brazilian orange juice for purchasers from abroad, who still look for high-quality product. As a result, the industry has boosted the demand for high-quality fruits.

In natura market

The warm weather in the Southeastern region in Brazil boosted the demand in the in natura market. Expectations are that, due to the proximity of the end of the winter in Brazil and higher temperatures, the demand may remain firm.

The new orange juice blend delivers the fresh orange taste families love at a more affordable price point

Tropicana has introduced Tropicana Essentials, a new orange juice blend designed to ease the everyday hustle at a more affordable price point compared to premium orange juices.

Made with a blend of orange, apple and pear juices, Tropicana Essentials is a good source of antioxidant vitamins C and E, calcium and vitamin D and contains no added sugar. The fruit juice is available in three varieties – Orange Blend (No Pulp), Orange Blend (Some Pulp) and Orange Mango Blend (No Pulp).

“Back-to-school season can feel like a marathon, and Tropicana Essentials is exactly what families need to start the morning strong,” said Tina Lambert, chief marketing officer at Tropicana Brands Group. “Tropicana has always been committed to making great-tasting juice accessible to everyone. Tropicana Essentials continues that tradition with a nutritious, delicious, fresh taste at a more affordable price point.”

Tropicana Essentials is available now at major retailers in the US, including Target, Kroger, Albertsons and more, at a suggested retail price of USD 3.89 for a 46-fluid-ounce bottle.

U.S. Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary, M.D., M.P.H., and U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins announced plans to support American citrus growers and cut bureaucratic barriers by proposing an update to the standard of identity (SOI) for pasteurised orange juice. This „America First“ action will end a 60-year-old rule that hurts domestic farmers and forces reliance on foreign imports. The FDA expects this change is unlikely to affect the taste of pasteurised orange juice.

The FDA’s proposed rule would reduce the minimum required Brix level in pasteurised orange juice from 10.5 percent to 10 percent, better reflecting the natural Brix level of American oranges. The rule change is estimated to save orange juice manufacturers more than $50 million per year and would reduce reliance on the use of imported oranges for “not from concentrate” pasteurised orange juice products in order to meet the required Brix level.

July ended with good news for the Brazilian citrus sector. The government from the United States decided to exclude the national orange juice from the tariff hike, bringing a relief for the sector. The US market is dependent on the OJ from Brazil, which is responsible for circa 60 % of the total volume consumed in the United States.

The steep decrease in the US juice output over the last years, especially in Florida, reinforced the vulnerability of the US production chain. In this context, the 50 % tariff could lead to product scarcity, inflationary shocks and logistics disruptions, which led to the exclusion of the OJ from the list of products affected by the new tariff.

For Brazil, the exclusion represents the preservation of the competitiveness in its most important market and avoids income loss.

In general, this scenario may lead players to close new contracts involving 2025/26 oranges again, bringing liquidity to the market.

The 2024/25 crop in Brazil finished officially in June 2025 with an aspect that is in the spotlight: the volume equivalent to concentrate juice (66º Brix) exported is the smallest of Secex series, but the revenue obtained with sales hit a record.

This scenario is related to the limited production of oranges in Brazil in the 2024/25 season, especially of high-quality fruits. Therefore, the industry had difficulties to produce juice that is compatible to the standards required by international consumers. The low supply of orange juice in the international market, in turn, boosted prices.

In the accumulated of the 2024/25 season (from July/24 to June/25), Brazil exported 776.78 thousand tons of juice, 22.7 % less than in the season before and the lowest since 1997, when the Secex series started.

Although the volume shipped had reduced sharply, high prices increased the income significantly. Comparing 2023/24 and 2024/25 crops, the income rose 28.4 %, totaling USD 3.48 billion, a record. If, on one hand, high values boosted the profitability, on the other, they limited the consumption, especially due to the low quality of the product.

2025/26 season

The expectation for the 2025/26 season is for shipments to regain pace, as inventories of high-quality juice increase and part of the demand from abroad is firm again, following the progress of the national production in the second semester of 2025.

Trump‘s tariffs

The 2024/25 finished with concerning limited exports, in a scenario of uncertainties about a full recovery of the international juice consumption. Some agents fear that the demand from abroad may not be firm again, due to the stagnation of the consumption and/or the still undefined effects of the tariff increase implemented by the Trump government on products from Brazil.

Rockstar Energy is looking to shake up the energy drinks category with the launch of Rockstar Energy Blood Orange Zero Sugar – a limited-edition flavour in a brand-new 330 ml £1 price-marked pack (PMP) can. The latest format and flavour is designed to broaden appeal and bring new shoppers into the category, by targeting non-traditional energy drinkers with a more accessible option.

The Blood Orange variant will launch as an initial exclusive to the convenience channel in the UK and taps into a popular summer flavour with its refreshing citrus taste, and a key stimulant flavour already, with citrus worth more than £45m¹.

Debuting in a new 330 ml slim can, the brand is looking to address a common barrier to entry for new energy drink buyers – the larger 500 ml format. Rockstar Energy can now offer a more approachable size and good value price point for those looking to try something new, representing a different, yet affordable on-the-go option for consumers.

¹NielsenIQ RMS, Total Coverage, Stimulants, Carlsberg Britvic Defined, Sales Value, 52wks w/e 03.05.25

The „2025/2026 Tree Inventory and Orange Crop Forecast“ presents the results of the eleventh survey on the tree inventory of São Paulo and west- southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt carried out by Fundecitrus in cooperation with full professor from the department of Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp from August 2024 to May 2025. The report is based on full remapping and in-field data collection from August 2024 to May 2025 and reflects a notable rebound in orange production following years of challenges …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com

Tropicana, one of the most popular juice brands in the world, has expanded its range with the launch of two of its best sellers in smaller serve cartons in the UK market.

Voted the number one orange juice vs other leading brands in the UK, Tropicana original orange juice is now available, in two varieties – with pulp and without pulp, in a smaller portion carton for the first time. With this 500 ml beverage carton, Tropicana offers more options for consumers to experience its ‘as fresh as from the fruit’ signature taste in an increasingly diverse market.

A key trend in the UK is a progressively ageing population that is creating a shift to more households with older adults and fewer children.

„Now with our best-selling orange juice in 500 ml cartons we have created accessibility for even more UK households to enjoy the great taste, quality and refreshment of Tropicana orange juice at breakfast. This smaller format pack is designed for smaller households such as empty nesters and retirees for whom the larger pack formats of Orange Smooth and Orange Original may not meet their needs. It also allows more price sensitive shoppers to buy into the branded category in light of price inflation, putting Tropicana on breakfast tables in more household demographics.“, says Nikolaos Kokidis, Packaging Procurement Lead Europe, Tropicana.

Consistency in quality

UK consumers also ranked Tropicana highest on fruitiness, real orange flavour, and freshly squeezed taste³ and the consistency in quality is reflected in the choice of cartons for these new product presentations.

„Opting for the Pure-Pak^® carton gives the brand range consistency on the shelves along with our standard carton pack and bulk formats,” adds Nikolaos Kokidis. Consumers are familiar with Tropicana as a leading juice brand in cartons for the UK market.

Cartons are fully recyclable in the UK and with new Simpler Recycling legislation from the Department for Environmental, Food & Rural Affairs⁴ (DEFRA) mandating liquid carton collections at household kerbside from March 2026, consumers can be confident their waste carton reaches a recycling facility.

¹The New Fieldwork Company – May 2023
²Attitudes towards Healthy Eating – UK – 2024 – Mintel
³UK CATA CLT – April 2023
⁴Simpler recycling: workplace recycling in England – GOV.UK

After Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released the estimate in May – of a higher orange output than what was expected by agents, at 314.6 million 40.8-kg boxes, – the sector was waiting for a better definition of contracts between the industry and producers to deliver 2025/26 fruits. However, contracts are likely to be closed only from mid-June on.

As the production may be concentrated in the second blossoming, the harvesting can be intensified only after July. Therefore, for now, the small volume of fruits that the industry has been receiving and/or may receive in the coming weeks refers to previous contracts or to fruits traded in the spot market. In this scenario, prices of the orange delivered at the industry registered slight changes in May.

Concerning fruits that have been delivered to the industry, players say that they have shown better quality – which means that a smaller volume of oranges has been necessary to produce juice. This positive scenario, in general, is related to weather conditions, which favored the production.

The US has imposed 10 % tariffs on Brazilian orange juice exports, while the majority of Mexican orange juice exports are likely to be USMCA compliant and therefore tariff-exempt.

This scenario creates opportunities and threats for orange juice exporters in both countries. On the one hand, burdened with a 10 % tariff, Brazilian exporters’ share of the US orange juice market could be under threat from tariff-free Mexican exporters.

On the other hand, if demand for Mexican orange juice soars among US importers as a result of US tariffs making Brazilian orange juice exports more expensive, then a greater percentage of total Mexican orange juice production could be redirected away from the domestic market and into the US. This would reduce Mexico’s domestic supply, which could result in increased prices for domestic orange juice consumers, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Rory Gopsill, Senior Consumer Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Avoiding price inflation is likely to be a priority for the Mexican Government as well as domestic orange juice brands and retailers, because Mexican consumers are already under financial pressure.”

According to GlobalData’s Q1 2025 Global Consumer survey, 56 % of Mexican consumers are extremely or quite concerned about their personal financial situation, and 60 % are extremely or quite concerned about the impact of the cost-of-living crisis on their financial situation. Moreover, 47 % of Mexicans are switching to cheaper brand alternatives to deal with rising prices, and 38 % are switching to cheaper retailers. Mexican orange juice brands and the retailers selling them will be wary of increasing prices for these reasons.

However, greater collaboration between Brazil and Mexico could result in controlling the balance of trade between the two countries’ US orange juice exports, and partially avoid the US tariffs.

Annually, the US consumes a greater volume of juice than any other country in the world. In 2024, the US consumed 5.3 billion litres of juice, considerably more than the runner-up, China, which consumed 1.4 billion litres in the same year, according to GlobalData’s Segment Insights Database, accessed May 2025. Figures from the Observatory of Economic Complexity, accessed May 2025, confirmed that the US exported $633 million worth of fruit juice in 2023 and imported $3.44 billion in the same year. As these figures demonstrate, the US is heavily reliant on fruit juice imports to meet domestic demand, especially orange juice, which is the most consumed fruit juice in the US, according to the USDA.

Brazil is the largest exporter of orange juice to the US, sourcing 75 % ($570 million) of the US’ non-frozen/spirited/fermented orange juice in 2023, and 44 % ($203 million) of the US’ frozen non-fermented/spirited orange juice in 2023. For Mexico, these figures were 16 % and 49 % respectively, making it the second largest exporter of orange juice to the US, according to The Observatory of Economic Complexity, accessed May 2025.

A potential solution to the challenges confronting both Brazil’s and Mexico’s orange juice exports to the US could be for Brazil to sell more orange juice to Mexican producers, who could then use it to produce juice blends that are exported to US markets. This is because, according to Fresh Plaza (2025), 60 % of juice blends can originate from third countries and still be USMCA compliant.

A product is more likely to be USMCA compliant if it is manufactured in the US, Mexico, or Canada, and made of materials sourced in these three countries. Mexico devoted more hectares to orange cultivation than any other country (except for India, Brazil, and China) in 2024, according to GlobalData’s Crop Area Production and Yield database. It would make sense for Mexican manufacturers to convert home grown oranges into orange juice for domestic consumption to maximise supply chain and administrative efficiencies.

Gopsill adds: “Brazilian exporters could mitigate losses in their share of the US import market by increasing the volumes of orange juice they sell to Mexican producers. Simultaneously, Mexican producers could use the Brazilian oranges to produce USMCA compliant orange juice and sell it to the US without burning through domestic orange juice supplies and increasing domestic orange juice prices, which would be a positive result for both nations.”

The new crop estimate released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in May indicates that the orange production in the citrus belt in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro and in the southwest of Minas Gerais is likely to total 314.6 million 40.8-kg boxes in 2025/26, a sharp rise of 36.2 % compared to the crop before. This increase brings a relief for the sector, especially because of the current scenario of limited orange juice stocks. By July/25, the volume in stock would be below the level that is considered strategic.

In case processing activities follow the harvesting increase at the same proportion, inventories by July 2026 are likely to be close to a safer volume to supply the global market. As a result, prices paid to producers, which hit records in the crop before (especially in October 2024), may not remain at the same levels. Thus, quotations are likely to continue above the historical average.

Among the aspects that justify the increase of the production estimate are the higher number of producing trees and the improvement of the weather during the cycle. Fundecitrus says that the number of producing trees upped 7.5 % compared to the previous season, changing from 169.9 million to 182.7 million trees.

2025-2026 orange crop forecast

The 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on May 09, 2025, by Fundecitrus in cooperation with full professor at FCAV/Unesp¹, is 314.60 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90 lbs) each. This production is divided as follows (figures in parentheses indicate the variation in production as compared to the previous crop):

• 49.48 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties (+ 31.49 %);
• 19.86 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada varieties (+ 27.31 %);
• 90.51 million boxes of the Pera variety (+ 21.16 %);
• 114.58 million boxes of the Valencia and Folha Murcha varieties (+ 50.78 %);
• 40.17 million boxes of the Natal variety (+ 49.05 %).

Approximately 26.93 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro (+ 80.3 %).

Overall, the projected volume represents a significant increase of 36.27 % compared to the previous crop season, whose final number was 230.87 million boxes, bringing production back into the average range of the last ten years, …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹José Carlos Barbosa, (voluntary) Full Professor at FCAV/Unesp.

Orange prices continue moving down in the domestic market in April (in natura), pressed by the higher supply of early fruits (such as hamlin and westing) and of ponkan tangerine. Moreover, the downward trend is also influenced by decreases at the industry. As for the demand, the mild weather has been limiting the consumption, reinforcing price drops.

From April 28 to May 2, values for pear oranges downed 4.58 %, averaging BRL 93.82 per 40-kg box. In April, pear orange averaged BRL 92.46 per 40-kg box, for a decrease of 1.75 % compared to March.

Industry

Citrus growers and processing companies are waiting for data from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) to define values and possible contracts for the 2025/26 crop – the new data will be released next Friday, 9.

In April, the price average of the fruit delivered at the industry was at BRL 51.81 per 40.8-kg box, downing 18 % compared to that verified in the previous month. This week (from April 28 to May 2), the value is at BRL 47.30 per 40.8-kg box, for a decrease of 5.95 % in relation to the week before.

Total orange production¹ for the 2024-2025 crop season ended at 230.87 million boxes

The 2024-2025 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with full professor from FCAV/Unesp², concluded with 230.87 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows:

• 7.63 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin e Rubi early-season varieties;
• 15.60 million boxes of Valência Americana, Seleta, Pineapple e Alvorada early-season varieties;
• 74.70 million boxes of Pera Rio mid-season variety;
• 75.99 million boxes of Valência e Valência Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
• 26.95 million boxes of Natal late-season variety.

Of the total, about 14.94 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.

This season production was 0.65% below the initial estimate released in May 2024 (232.38 million boxes) and 24.85% below the previous crop season, which totaled 307.22 million boxes, a production level in line with the historical average. The 2024-2025 crop was confirmed as the second smallest in the last 37 years, considered atypical due to adverse weather conditions, marked by dry weather, high temperatures, the extremely late and expressive fourth bloom, along with the incidence of greening …

Please download the complete forecast here.

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
²Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

Robinsons, the UK’s number one squash brand¹, is unveiling the latest flavour in its Ready-to-Drink range with refreshing and delicious Orange & Mango. Perfect for those on-the-go moments in a 500 ml format, the launch is full of the great taste that shoppers expect from Robinsons, with no added sugar.

Joining the existing Raspberry & Apple and Blackberry & Blueberry variants, Orange & Mango will expand the Robinsons Ready-to-Drink range with another popular flavour choice for shoppers. In fact, 37 % of Robinsons sales are in orange² flavours and it’s worth over £74m RSV in Robinsons dilutes³. The Carlsberg Britvic-owned brand is looking to build on its current success with its latest launch, with the range now worth £22m RSV and continuing to grow⁴.

Ben Parker, VP Sales Off-Trade, Carlsberg Britvic, said: “With our Ready-to-Drink range in growth and showing great promise in the market, we wanted to add to this success and help support retailers with another flavour that consumers already know and love. Orange & Mango is the perfect addition given its popularity and we see it becoming a core part of our growing range as a refreshing and fruity on-the-go option.”

The launch will be supported by the product’s biggest ever above-the-line campaign, with over £1m invested in advertising across the Robinsons Ready-to-Drink portfolio, and product sampling that looks to make the campaign unmissable this summer.

Robinsons Ready-to-Drink Orange & Mango is now available across retail channels in in 500 ml single bottles (RRP £1.79), including Price Mark Packs (PMP) (RRP – £1.15). Visit our At Your Convenience platform to claim your free case of Robinsons Ready-to-Drink Orange & Mango, as well as Point of Sale (POS) to amplify the launch in-store.

¹Nielsen IQ Retail Measurement Service, Value Sales, Total Dilutes, Carlsberg Britvic defined, 52 w/e 22/03/25
²Nielson IQ RMS, GB_Total Coverage, Value Sales, Robinsons Squash, Orange Flavoured Drinks, Carlsberg Britvic Defined, 52 w/e 22/03/25
³Nielson IQ RMS, GB_Total Coverage, Robinsons Squash, Value Sales, Carlsberg Britvic Defined, 52 w/e 22/03/25
⁴Nielsen IQ RMS, RSV, Total Coverage, Total Single Serve Soft Drinks, Robinsons Ready-to-Drink, Carlsberg Britvic Defined, 52 w/e 22/03/25 Vs PY

As processing companies reduced the pace of activities of oranges in early April, part of units was then focused on crushing the tahiti lime. According to players surveyed by Cepea, this scenario helps to flow non-standard fruits to processing activities, reducing the volume in the in natura market.

Due to the higher demand from the industry, quotations were firm. In the first three months of 2025, prices paid by the industry for the tahiti lime averaged BRL 25.06 per 40.8-kg box, 55 % above that in the same period last year and the highest considering the first quarter since 2019 (BRL 29.95/box), in real terms (IGP-DI March/25).

From April 7-10, the price average of the fruit delivered at the industry was at BRL 26.00 per box, upping 13.04 % compared to that verified in the last week of March. This scenario ends up keeping the price level close to BRL 30/box in the in natura market. Tahiti lime prices are at BRL 29.22 per 27.2-kg box between April 7 and 10, downing 2.2 % compared to the week before.

Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released its report of the 2024/25 season on April 10, indicating that the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) harvested 230.87 million 40.8-kg boxes, for a decrease of 0.65 % (or 1.51 million boxes) in relation to the first estimate (May/24), but upping 1.03 % (or 2.35 million boxes) compared to that projected in February/25. In relation to the previous crop, the decrease is by 24.85 %.

The upward trend for tahiti lime values, which has been verified since carnaval in Brazil, was interrupted in late March. The price average for the tahiti lime in the last week of March was at BRL 29.60 per 27.2-kg box, for a decrease of 6.15 % compared to that in the week before.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that the decrease is related to the supply of small-sized fruits, which has been higher than expected for the in natura market. This scenario pushes away consumers at supermarkets.

High-quality fruits, in turn, have been mainly allocated to exports. The price average of shipped fruits is at BRL 40.00 per 27.2-kg box in late March, a level that has been observed since the beginning of the month and it is higher than in January (BRL 30.00/box) and in February (BRL 35.00/box).

Data from Comexstat indicate that, in 2024, the income obtained with exports of lemons totaled USD 196.15 million – that verified for mango (USD 350.3 million) continues the highest income among fruits that Brazil exports. It is worth noting that the income registered with exports of lemons in the partial of this year is already higher than that observed in January and February 2024.

Orange market

Due to the fact that early fruits were hitting the market in late March (such as westing, rubi and hamlin), values of in natura oranges dropped in São Paulo state. The price average for pear oranges in the last week of March was at BRL 98.51 per 40.8-kg box, downing 3.15% compared to that in the period before.

The low quality of orange juice and the limited demand due to high price levels have resulted in sharp price drops in the international market in this early 2025. The May/25 contract at ICE Futures dropped 20.6 % in the partial of March and 42.8 % in the accumulated of 2025, at 276.45 cents of dollar per pound on March 12.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that, in early March, the orange sugar/acid ratio was below the desirable for crushing activities. Moreover, the excess of limonin, due to a heterogeneous harvesting, has also been affecting the final product, since it increases the juice bitterness, reducing the acceptance of major consumers, such as the United States and the European Union.

Lower prices at ICE Futures contrast with the current scenario of orange juice stocks. CitrusBR released a report on March 10 indicating that inventories finished 2024 at 351,483 tons (converted to FCOJ), downing 24.2 % compared to 2023 and the lowest amount since the beginning of the series.

As for the domestic market, the low quality at this end-of-season period pressed down values paid by the industry.

Weather

The warm weather and the low volume of rainfall in São Paulo state since mid-February concerned citrus growers in early March. Many of them fear that the weather may affect both orange and tahiti lime in this end of the 2024/25 season and the citrus production in the next crop (2025/26).

Prices of oranges to the industry dropped significantly in late February, due to the low quality of fruits and to international decreases of orange juice quotations. From February 24-27, for instance, the price average was at BRL 74.29 per 40.8-kilo box, downing 6.55 % compared to that in the week before and 16 % in February.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that the orange quality has reduced since the beginning of the year, with lower brix-acid ratio compared to what is desirable for processing activities, and this has been affecting the quality of the orange juice.

This scenario of low quality, in turn, is related to the fact that the 2024/25 had registered several blossoming cycles, resulting in the harvest of distinct stages of fruits (ripe and unripe), which affects the standardisation of oranges sent to processing activities.

Impacts on export

The lower orange supply and the limited quality of the fruits have been limiting orange juice shipments. According to data from Comex Stat, exports of not-from-concentrate (NFC) OJ (NCM 20091200) have presented a lower performance compared to that verified in the season before. In the partial of the 2024/25 crop (from July/24 to January/25), the volume of juice shipped by Brazil totaled 1.09 million tons, 3.4 % smaller than in the same period last season.

Tahiti lime shipments

Brazilian exports of tahiti lime continue moving at a good pace, after reaching a record volume in 2024. In January, Brazil shipped 17.15 thousand tons of tahiti lime, a record for the month and 18.1 % up compared to January/24 – data from Secex. Revenue totaled USD 14.826 million, for an increase of 13.4 % in the same comparison.

The increase of the orange size, especially fruits from the fourth blossoming, and the decrease of the fruit drop rate boosted the new estimate for the 2024/25 output compared to the previous projection.

Data released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in February indicate that the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) may harvest 228.52 million 40.8-kg boxes, moving down 1.7 % (or 3.86 million boxes) compared to the first estimate, released in May/24, but upping 2.4 % (or 5.38 million boxes) in relation to the report from December/24.

Besides the good development of the fourth blossoming, Fundecitrus indicates that the rainfall has favored the production.

The higher supply against the previous crop brings a certain relief, but the sector still faces the low quality of the fruits and the low industrial productivity.

This scenario of higher supply and lower quality has been pressing quotations down. For the industry, which has been purchasing fruits at BRL 82.88/box, on average, in the second week of February, the decrease is by 3.63 % against the week before.

Florida

The orange production in Florida has also been facing challenges. The USDA indicated this month that the production in the state is likely to reach 11.5 million boxes, downing 500 thousand boxes compared to the estimate from January and a decrease of 36 % against the crop before.

Orange Juice

Global orange juice production for 2024/25 is forecast up 4 percent to 1.4 million tons (65 degrees brix) as higher production in Brazil and Mexico is expected to offset lower production in the United States. Consumption is down while exports are forecast up due to higher supplies.

Brazil production is forecast up 9 percent to 1.0 million tons as more oranges are available for processing. Exports are up with the higher supplies while stocks are forecast unchanged. Brazil is by far the largest producer and is projected to account for three-quarters of global orange juice exports.

Mexico production is projected to increase 4 percent to 187,000 tons on expected better fruit size and juice content. Consumption is down as more goes to exports which are also up due to the rise in available supplies. The United States is expected to remain the top export market.

U.S. production is forecast down 28 percent to a record low 80,000 tons due to a drop in oranges available for processing, especially in Florida. Yields continue to decline in Florida due to fruit drop caused by citrus greening and weather challenges such as hurricanes and freezes. Consumption is forecast unchanged while imports are up slightly with the lower production. Stocks are expected to be down with the drop in production.

South Africa production is forecast to increase 4 percent to 57,100 tons due to a rise in oranges available for processing. Consumption is forecast to be lower due to high prices while exports are forecast up with the higher production and global demand.

EU production is forecast down 7 percent to 50,000 tons as fruit for processing is down with the expectation that more oranges will be exported. Consumption is up with projected higher imports from Brazil and exports are forecast down with lower production. …

Please download the full report: https://apps.fas.usda.gov

Even with the return of rainfall in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro from October/24 on, the scenario for the 2025/26 season continues uncertain. Flowers that opened after the rains were considered satisfactory, however, the development of the crop still depends on weather conditions during the season.

The 2024/25 crop is estimated at 223.14 million 40.8-kilo boxes of oranges, for a decrease of 27.4 % compared to the previous season (2023/24) – data from Fundecitrus.

Weather adversities have been hampering the production for five consecutive seasons, which resulted in restricted inventories of juice.

Cepea calculations indicate that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the 2024/25 crop, ending this season technically zero. Thus, a very positive 2025/26 season will be necessary to have at least a slight recovery.

Not even a decrease of exports in the 2024/25 season will be enough to compensate for the reduction in the volume of fruit processed, which will maintain the demand from the industry at high levels.

Moreover, Florida has been registering a decrease in inventories and may need to import more inputs from Brazil, which helps to sustain quotations in the domestic market. Besides this scenario of limited production and stocks in Brazil, data released on December 10 by the USDA indicate that the 2024/25 orange crop may total 12 million 40.8-kg boxes, downing 20 % (or 3 million boxes) compared to the report released in October (15 million boxes). Besides the citrus greening disease, the production drop is also related to the hurricane Milton in Florida in early October 2024.

For 2025, the conditions reported in the Brazilian citrus grove may support prices throughout the year.

All oranges 12.0 million boxes

The 2024-2025 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 12.0 million boxes, unchanged from the December forecast. If realised, this will be 33 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 5.00 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.00 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov

Orange prices hit records in 2024. Values of the 40.8 kg box were above BRL 100 in the in natura market. Increases are explained by the firm demand from part of the industry (since players have low orange juice stocks) and the restricted orange supply, because of the limited production.

The weather in the citrus belt was predominantly dry and with high temperatures during the development of the crop. Although prices allowed good profits to citrus growers, the low productivity boosted costs (which had already been high due to the citrus greening disease). Margins may be reduced in areas where the production dropped significantly, despite record prices of the fruit. As for the tahiti lime, quotations were at low levels in the first semester and increased in the second part of the year, because of the offseason period, which is a typical movement.

As a result, due to the limited orange supply and the high demand from the industry, values operated at record levels, in real terms (prices were deflated by the IGP-DI). In October, the price average paid by the industry surpassed BRL 90 per 40.8 kg box. It is worth noting that 2023/24 trades started early, in January, with quotations at around BRL 38 per box. Since inventories at the industry had been limited, the demand in the spot market increased, and prices hit records in real terms, surpassing BRL 100/box in November.

São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro are likely to harvest 223.14 million 40.8 kilo boxes of oranges in the 2024/25 season, for an increase of 7.36 million boxes (or + 3.4 %) compared to the last projection, released in September, but still 9.24 million boxes less (or – 4 %) in relation to the first estimate (May 2024). Therefore, the current season may be 27.4 % smaller than the previous (2023/24), when 307.22 million boxes were harvested – data from Fundecitrus.

The smaller production was already expected in 2024/25, due to unfavourable weather conditions and to the citrus greening disease.

The current scenario is: very limited orange juice stocks in Brazil. Thus, in order to guarantee the global OJ supply, the next production (2025/26) would need to increase in both Brazil and Florida.

As for the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union, it can favour shipments of lime, lemon and orange juice, but can also open a direct channel to receive these fruits from Spain. Still, the agreement is very important and brings good perspectives for the mid and long-terms.

• The festive period is the most popular time for couples to conceive according to the Office for National Statistics¹
• As the seasonal baby boom begins, nine out of ten women will have marginal or low levels of folate – a vital nutrient which protects the foetus²
• According to the NHS, expectant mothers can need up to 10 times more folate during pregnancy than the average adult to help their baby develop normally³
• Dietitian, Dr Frankie Phillips, shares three simple but effective dietary tips for expectant mothers to boost their folate levels

Research by the University of Southampton has highlighted a concerning trend: nine out of ten women will have marginal or low levels of folate and other vital nutrients around the time of conception.²

Folate, also known as vitamin B9, can be found in a range of food and drinks and is essential during pregnancy to prevent neural tube defects, like spina bifida. The average adult needs 200 micrograms of folate a day, but pregnant women need at least double this dose due to the demands of pregnancy. According to the NHS, some expectant mothers can even require up to 10 times the average adult recommendation.³

This common deficiency can extend into late pregnancy, potentially impacting the health of both mother and child. According to healthcare professionals, symptoms of a folate deficiency can include fatigue, pins and needles, mouth ulcers, and a sore red tongue.²

A developing baby needs folate to make healthy new cells, and to make genetic materials (DNA and RNA). Deficiency in the early stages of pregnancy can harm the neural tube which protects the spinal cord – affecting more than 1000 pregnancies a year in the UK. More generally, the health benefits of folate include encouraging the production of red blood cells in bone marrow, which is vital during periods of growth and development such as pregnancy, infancy and adolescence.

As the winter months herald the season of festive celebrations, they also mark the beginning of the most popular time of year for conception, evidenced by September’s leading birth rates.1 Dr Frankie Phillips, a registered dietitian with over 20 years’ experience, highlights the importance of optimal nutrition during family planning and pregnancy.

Dr Frankie Phillips comments: “Folate is needed for many important processes in the body, including helping form healthy red blood cell and contributing to the reduction of tiredness and fatigue.A 150ml glass of 100 % orange juice is a recognised source of folate and a convenient, affordable way to help achieve daily nutrient requirements.”

For women who think they may be suffering with low folate levels, Dr Phillips recommends a few simple but effective ways to incorporate more folate into your diet.

Three steps to incorporate folate-rich food and drinks into your diet:

• Drink a daily glass of 100% Orange Juice: Whether you buy a bottle from the shop or crank up the juicer at home, pure orange juice is a great source of folate and provides essential minerals like potassium, magnesium, and iron, according to a new Spanish study.⁴ Just one glass of orange juice a day is a recognised source of folate.
• Include Leafy Greens: Incorporate folate-rich leafy greens such as spinach, kale, and broccoli into your diet to support foetal development and overall health. Try adding a handful of spinach to stews or curries and stir-frying broccoli stems with lean beef and soy sauce.
• Add Legumes to Meals: Include peas, lentils, chickpeas, and beans in your diet, as they are excellent sources of folate. For example, just one cup of cooked lentils contains 90 % of the daily recommendation. Legumes are also rich in protein, fibre and antioxidants.⁵

Researchers, Dr Montana Camara and Dr Laura Dominguez, who recently published a study on the vitamin and mineral content of orange juice, noted: ” Folate is an essential mineral supporting foetal development by helping to release energy from the mother’s diet, and promoting normal development of the nervous system, especially during conception and pregnancy.”

Their study found that packaged fruit juices were a good source of folate, potassium and vitamin C.

¹https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthcharacteristicsinenglandandwales/2022
²https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2023/12/pregnant-women-missing-vital-nutrients-needed-for-them-and-their-babies.page
³https://www.nhs.uk/medicines/folic-acid/common-questions-about-folic-acid/ ; https://www.nhs.uk/pregnancy/keeping-well/vitamins-supplements-and-nutrition/#:~:text=But%20when%20you’re%20pregnant,you’re%2012%20weeks%20pregnant
⁴Cámara, M., Domínguez, L., Medina, S.; Mena, P., García-Viguera,C. A Comparative Analysis of Folate and Mineral Contents in Freshly Squeezed and Commercial 100% Orange Juices Available in Europe.Nutrients 2024, 16, 3605. https://doi.org/10.3390/nu1621360
⁵https://fdc.nal.usda.gov/food-search?query=&type=Foundation

The possibility of a small orange supply was reinforced due to the decrease of the number of companies operating in São Paulo state in late November. In the last two crops, when the supply was already below the normal standard, major processing companies started to reduce the pace of activities only between January and February.

In January 2024, only six plants were operating, against tem in the same period last year. At the end of November, there were seven units in activity. Players surveyed by Cepea say that there might still be a certain volume of raw material for the industry to continue processing up to February 2025, but March is still uncertain.

To make matters worse, the low supply is being verified together with low quality. According to players surveyed by Cepea, the brix-acid ratio is unsatisfactory, concerning both producers and players from the industry, since it affects the efficiency of processing activities and the quality of the final product.

The lower juice yield is especially linked to the scarcity of rains during the development of the fruits, which reduced the amount of juice in the fruit. As a result, more oranges are necessary to produce the same amount of juice.

Although it is the offseason period for the tahiti lime, quotations decreased in early November. The downward trend is related to both the size and the quality of the fruit, which are below expected by the sector. However, it is worth noting that price levels are still high.

According to data from Cepea, tahiti lime prices averaged BRL 95.59 per 27.2-kg box in mid-November, downing 16.17 % against late October.

It is worth noting that the price average for the tahiti lime was at BRL 117.94/box last month, 72.2 % more than in September and moving up 71 % against October last year, in nominal terms.

Season in Florida

The 2023/24 orange season finished in September in Florida. The Citrus Department of that state in the Unites States indicated in October that local juice stocks, as observed in Brazil, finished the season at low levels.

The limited orange supply has been frequent in the US, considering that the country has become majorly an orange juice importer since the advance of greening in Florida.

It is worth noting that Brazil is the major orange juice supplier for the US market. The fact that the Brazilian industry faced both low supply and high prices in the 2023/24 season (which limited exports) might have prevented a recovery of stocks in Florida.

Regular rains and mild weather were registered in late October in the citrus belt of São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro, the biggest orange producer for the juice industry. This scenario has helped to bring a relief for trees that were affected by the lack of rains and high temperatures.

2024/25 season

Even with the return of rainfall, the current orange crop has presented low quality. Still, rains in October may improve the quality of fruits that are still on the trees. It is worth noting that the orange crop has started in June this year and may finish between December and January/25. As for tahiti lime (the main season starts between November and December), weather conditions may favor the development, since fruits are currently below the standard.

Exports

The revenue obtained by Brazilian exporters with orange juice shipments in the partial of the 2024/25 crop (from July/24 to September/24) totaled USD 905.3 million, for an increase of 42.3 % compared to the same period of the last season (USD 636.1 million), according to Comex Stat.

The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil, in turn, continues decreasing, as it has been verified since the 2023/24 crop. From July to September/24, Brazil shipped 207.5 thousand tons of orange juice, downing 27 % in relation to the same period in 2023.

The lower volume exported is linked to the limited supply. Weather adversities have been hampering the production for five consecutive seasons, which resulted in restricted inventories of juice.

High temperatures in São Paulo state in early October reinforced producers’ concerns, since this scenario can affect both fruits that are on the trees (from the current season, 2023/24) and the production of the next crop (2024/25), especially non-irrigated areas. Therefore, in mid-October, citrus growers were waiting for the rainfall in major producing regions.

So far, the biggest challenge for the current season (2023/24) has been the fact that fruits have wilted, which affects directly the quality, according to players surveyed by Cepea. In normal conditions, this quality loss would press quotations down; however, due to the limited supply this season, prices remain firm.

As for the 2024/25 crop, scenarios are distinct between irrigated and non-irrigated areas. In irrigated regions in São Paulo state, the fruit development is more advanced, but producers were still concerned with high temperatures.

On the other hand, most trees in non-irrigated areas have not blossomed yet. Thus, the return of rains is essential to mitigate the lack of soil humidity and encourage the blossoming.

The 2024/25 orange crushing was moving at a good pace at juice processing companies in São Paulo state at the end of September. According to players, the pear orange has been the most processed variety; however, the harvesting pace has been progressing, and the participation of late fruits (such as valencia and natal) has been increasing.

The harvesting is more advanced due to the higher share of fruits from the first blossoming. Data from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) indicate that 64 % of oranges produced in this season account for the first blossoming, higher than the last four crops (36 % of the fruits, at most). Thus, the crushing pace is likely to reduce earlier this year – the second blossoming considers fruits that will be harvested from October on, according to Fundecitrus.

In addition to that, greening (HLB – Huanglongbing), above-average temperatures and the dry weather also accelerate the harvesting. As for greening, one of the symptoms of the disease is the early fruit drop, and producers may harvest in advance to avoid losses. Weather conditions, in turn, accelerate the ripening and may result in early fruit drop.

The share of late fruits in processing activities is likely to be higher in October, but the amount of pear oranges allocated to juice production can still be relevant.

Stocks

Cepea calculations, based on data released by CitrusBR on Sept. 19, indicate that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the current crop (2024/25), ending this season technically zero. Not even the forecast of improvement in industrial yield (due to below-average rainfall) and limited exports will be enough to compensate for the decrease in the volume of fruit processed.

According to CitrusBR, the stocked quantity of the commodity was 116.7 thousand tons at the end of 2023/24 crop (on June 30, 2024), being 37.7 % higher than that on the same period last year, but the third lowest in history (the series has started in 1988/89).

Most part of São Paulo state registered high temperatures in early September. This scenario brought concerns for citrus growers, who may face another year of significant heat waves.

Climatempo says that heat waves in September have become more common in most part of Brazil; however, they have been more intense and are lasting longer.

2024/25 CROP – São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro may harvest 215.78 million 40.8-kg boxes in the 2024/25 orange season, according to data released by Fundecitrus on September 10. The volume may be 30 % less than in the crop before, which registered average production, and below the first projection, of 232.38 million boxes.

The decrease is related to the smaller fruit size, due to the dry and warm weather. The weather also accelerated the harvesting pace, since it influenced the ripening. More than half of the crop can be harvested in this dry weather scenario because rains are forecast only for late September.

The volume of rainfall was small in almost all areas in the citrus belt, except in the southwestern region of São Paulo. Fundecitrus indicates that the only area where the production is expected to increase in this season is the southwest of SP – the harvest may be 19 % higher than in 2023/24. In other regions, the production decrease can be between 28 % and 60 %.

Total orange production¹ is updated at 215.78 million boxes

The first update of the 2024-2025 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors from FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp², is 215.78 million boxes of 40.8 kg. Of the total, 200.46 million boxes come from the first three blooms, while 15.32 million boxes belong to the fourth bloom. Compared to the initial estimate in May, the projection shows a reduction of 16.60 million boxes, which corresponds to a 7.1 % decrease. Analyzing by maturity group, the early-season varieties decrease by approximately 3 %, the mid-season (Pera) by 11 %, and the late-season varieties by 7 %. Compared to the previous crop (307.22 million boxes), the current projection represents a 29.8 % drop, with early-season varieties down by roughly 33 %, mid-season (Pera) by 35 %, and late-season varieties by 24 %. It is also estimated that approximately 14.34 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region. …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
²Department of Exact Sciences, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

Recent wildfires in several areas in São Paulo state concerned players. According to data gathered by Cepea, wildfires hit some citrus areas, especially the central-north of the state; however, this scenario may not bring significant impacts on the volume of fruits available in the market.

According to players surveyed by Cepea, the areas hit by wildfires are small and the landowners were able to control them rapidly. The rainfall in some areas also helped to control the problem. Damages were more significant for other crops, especially sugarcane.

Market

Prices for the pear orange have been at historical levels this year both in the in natura market and in the industrial segment. The limited supply of the current season and the firm demand from the industry explain this scenario. The price average was at BRL 100.00 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, at the end of August.

However, the cold wave in São Paulo state in late August led consumers to be away from trades in the orange market. This scenario was reinforced by the end-of-the month period. On the other hand, the limited supply and high prices of industrial contracts continued to sustain quotations in the in natura market.

The 2024/25 crop-year for orange juice exports (from July/24 to June/25) has started in July and shipments, which had been moving down in 2023/24, continued to move at a slow pace. This scenario was already expected, since the supply is limited in Brazil, due to the confirmation of a smaller orange production in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro. At the same time, Brazilian imports of in natura orange and tangerine rose in July.

Orange juice exports

According to Comex Stat, Brazil shipped 53.4 thousand tons of orange juice in July, downing 38 % compared to the same month in 2023. The limited supply boosted quotations. As a result, the revenue totaled USD 198.9 million in July/24, for an increase of 9 % in relation to July/23.

NFC orange juice shipments amounted 164.2 thousand tons in July/24, and the revenue totaled USD 96.45 million, upping 3 % and 55 % against July/23. As for FCOJ exports, the total was 23.6 thousand tons (-59 %), and the revenue was USD 102.4 million (-15 % in one year).

In natura citrus fruits imports

In natura orange imports are at record volumes this year, boosted by the low domestic supply and high prices of national fruits. According to data from Comex Stat, from January to July, 34.8 thousand tons were imported, 87 % up in relation to the same period last year. Expenses amounted USD 24.7 million, 72 % more this year against the previous.

As for tangerines, the volume purchased by Brazil in the partial of 2024 totaled 14.5 thousand tons, 96 % more than in the period from January to July last year. Expenses are at USD 15.65 million (+89 %).

Domestic market

Quotations of citrus fruits surveyed by Cepea may continue to increase in August, sustained by expectations of a limited supply for all varieties. This scenario can be verified despite the orange season peak.

The orange harvesting is moving at a good pace in the citrus belt, but most part of the produce has been allocated to the juice industry. Factories continue with high prices to purchase the raw material, leading many producers that typically operate in the in natura market to allocate oranges for processing activities. Therefore, not even the low demand, due to mild temperatures, was able to press down quotations.

Data released by the USDA in late July reinforced the scenario of limited world supply for the 2023/24 orange season (or 2024/25 in the Southern Hemisphere). Despite the slight increase in the production estimate compared to the crop before, the total volume may continue at historical low levels. Moreover, the decrease in Brazil, major global producer of both orange and juice, may not be counterbalanced by other suppliers.

The USDA indicates that the 2023/24 world crop is projected at 47.4 million tons, upping 1 % compared to the season before. In Brazil, the output may decrease 1.2 %, to 15.3 million tons – equivalent to 375 million 40.8-kg boxes. However, the decrease indicated by the USDA might be underestimated. In São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro, the production is likely to drop 24.4 %, according to Fundecitrus, and there are doubts whether a possible increase in other states would compensate the low volume produced in the citrus belt.

Orange juice

In spite of the slight rise in the global orange production, the orange juice output is projected at 1.5 million tons, 3 % down against the season before. The decrease is related to the lower availability of fruits to process in Brazil, which represents more than 70 % of the global OJ production.

The Brazilian output is calculated at 1.1 million tons, downing 9 %, and national exports are likely to decrease in the same intensity, since almost 100 % of the Brazilian production is sent to the international market.

Tahiti lime

The global production of lemons and limes in 2023/24 is estimated to move up 2 %, reaching 10.1 million tons, boosted by the higher output in the European Union and in Turkey.

It is worth noting that these numbers consider lemons (Sicilian, for instance) and limes (such as the tahiti lime). Among major producing countries, only Mexico produces significant volumes of tahiti lime (which is produced and exported by Brazil). Mexican shipments are likely to reduce 7.5 %, which can keep the focus of this country on supplying the US, opening more room for the Brazilian tahiti lime in the European market – Brazil has been hitting records in exports year after year.

Due to the presence of greening (Huanglongbing) in São Paulo and to the recent imbalance between supply and demand for oranges, both producers and processors have been looking for options to increase the planted area in regions outside the citrus belt, without the phytosanitary risks in SP. There have been reports of new plantings in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais (out of Triângulo Mineiro) and Goiás, areas that are not typical citrus producers.

Investments are indeed not recommended depending on the region of São Paulo state, although major processing units are located there. Many areas have high incidence of greening, which hinders new plantings. According to data from Fundecitrus, 38 % of the trees in the citrus belt had symptoms of the disease in 2023, the sixth year in a row of greening increase. It is worth noting that new plants tend to be more vulnerable to the disease, increasing costs with prevention and chances of infection.

Therefore, plantings outside SP are an option. The land availability is higher, reducing costs, and there is the absence of greening and other diseases. Moreover, the industrial productivity can be higher than in SP, due to the warmer weather, which is positive for processing companies.

On the other hand, the fact that the areas are unknown for the citrus activity concerns players, since this scenario would demand adjustments in management and irrigation, which cannot be necessarily the same as those verified in SP.

Although these regions are warmer than SP (which can favor the productivity), it tends to affect the development of the trees. Additionally, costs with freight can be higher because of logistical issues.

It is worth noting that these investments in other regions are new and, therefore, they may not affect the orange supply in the short-term – it can be verified in roughly three years, when plants start producing.

Market

The supply of citrus fruits in the in natura market in São Paulo may be low in July. As for oranges, the lower availability has been verified since the middle of last year and it is also attributed to the high demand from the industry – it is worth noting that juice stocks at processing companies may finish the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) at low levels.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that even producers who typically sell to the in natura market are focusing on sending the product to the industry this season, since prices are more attractive and there are some advantages compared to the in natura market.