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All Oranges 45.0 Million Boxes

The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 45.0 million boxes, down slightly from the April forecast. The total includes of 19.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 26.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges.

Non-Valencia Oranges 19.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of non-Valencia production is finalized at 19.0 million boxes. Harvest is complete for the included varieties. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is 500,000 boxes, 3 percent of the non-Valencia total.

Valencia Oranges 26.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of Valencia production is unchanged from the April forecast. Weekly certifications in April were between 2.4 million and 2.9 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted April 30 to May 1, 2018 showed 89 percent of the Valencia rows are harvested. Estimated utilization to May 1, including an allocation for other use, is 21.2 million boxes. Processors were surveyed regarding fruit processed through April 30th and the estimated quantity remaining to be processed to the end of the season. Analysis of the Row Count Survey, estimated utilization to the first of the month, and the processors report support holding the Valencia orange forecast.

All Grapefruit 3.95 Million Boxes

The forecast of all grapefruit production is lowered 50,000 boxes to 3.95 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is lowered 50,000 boxes to 700,000 boxes. The red grapefruit forecast is unchanged. Estimated utilization to May 1, with an allocation for non- certified use, of white grapefruit is 700,000 boxes and of red grapefruit is 3.25 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted April 29 to May 1, 2018, indicated harvest is complete for these varieties.

Tangerines and Tangelos 750,000 Boxes

The forecast for the tangerine and tangelo production is lowered 20,000 boxes to 750,000 boxes. If realized, this production level will be 54 percent less than last season’s production. Utilization is over for all tangerines and tangelos this season.

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The 2018/2019 orange crop forecast published on May 09, 2018 by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp1 is of 288.29 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. This total includes:

  • 55.81 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties;
  • 16.55 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple varieties;
  • 81.16 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety;
  • 99.80 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties;
  • 34.97 million boxes of the Natal variety.

1. Bearing trees

Bearing trees of the varieties which make up this estimate total 175.27 million. Information about bearing trees was obtained from the Tree Inventory for São Paulo and west-southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt: March 2018 status, defined by the new mapping of groves performed from September 08, 2017 to January 29, 2018 and by counting of trees present in 5% of plots mapped, from January 29 to March 07, 2018

The georeferenced mapping, carried out for the first time at the 2015 Inventory, has been through a complete update for this 2018 Inventory. New high definition orthorectified images were obtained by the satellites SPOT 6&7 from European Airbus Defence and Space between May and August, 2017. In September, 2017 images were made available to survey agents, together with drawings of plots identified in the previous mapping, which were superimposed to the images for easier visualization of areas that should be visited to collect in loco data. Scanning or visual inspection of images were also employed by survey agents before they went to the field to pre-identify citrus groves planted after the previous mapping from 2015 to 2017, which should also be visited.

No information relative to the plot other than their outlines was supplied to survey agents, which required all new data to be collected on: variety, year set, spacing, visual aspect of plants and irrigation system, when present2. Recently collected data relative to the variety and year set that differed from the previous register were audited for validation. Outlines of plots were redrawn to correspond to their present area, whenever their area was changed after plots having been registered in the previous mapping. Field visits identified plots that were abandoned or eradicated after the 2015 Inventory, and those identified in that mapping as being in a similar situation, so that they were also revisited for updating data. A new feature in the current mapping is the delimitation of farms, which more precisely quantifies farms present in the citrus belt

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