Mexico orange production continues to recover from 2019/20 drought
Mexico orange production is forecast at 4.3 million tons, up 3 percent from the previous year due to a return to normal weather conditions in Veracruz. The 2019/20 drought affected orange production more than other citrus, as many orange trees are old and require more energy to produce fruit. Mexico produces three main orange varieties: Valencia, which is favorable for juice production; Lane Late, which is mainly consumed fresh; and Navelina, which is consumed fresh and is also used for juice production. Oranges are harvested mainly from November to May.
Please download the full report under https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/citrus.pdf
Mintel has today announced three trends set to impact global consumer markets in 2022. From technology that predicts the success of potential romances to brands tackling COVID-19 ‘survivor’s guilt’ and eco-anxiety, this year’s trends include:
- In Control: In times of uncertainty, consumers crave a sense of control over their lives. Brands can deliver the information and options that consumers need to feel like they’re in the driver’s seat.
- Enjoyment Everywhere: Having endured lockdown, consumers are eager to break out of their confines and explore, play and embrace novel experiences, both virtually and in the ‘real’, physical world.
- Ethics Check: While many brands have made their voices heard on controversial topics, consumers want to see measurable progress against their goals.
Dana Macke, Director of Mintel Trends, Americas, comments on how the trends were developed, as well as how they will impact markets, brands, and consumers in 2022 and beyond:
“As experts in what consumers want and why, we’re best suited to accurately predict the future of consumer behavior and what that means for brands. In 2019, we took a bold, new approach to predict the future of global consumer markets and expanded our outlook to 10 years. Mintel’s 2030 Global Consumer Trends – known as the seven Mintel Trend Drivers – were developed as a living, growing prediction model that will adapt to the unforeseen. As the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded, impacting nearly every industry worldwide, our consumer expertise and prediction model meant we were well placed to analyze how it would impact markets. Not only did our 2030 predictions hold true, but the pandemic accelerated many of the shifts we foresaw.
“Looking ahead to 2022, our trend analysis and prediction research are grounded by observations of the seven Trend Drivers over the last 18 months and backed by Mintel’s robust consumer and market data, predictive analytics, action-oriented insights and expert recommendations. We put everything into context to better understand what it means for—and how it could inspire—our clients’ business decisions across industries, categories and demographics, and amid global themes and times of uncertainty.”
“Feelings of precariousness and financial insecurity both created, and exaggerated, by the pandemic mean that consumers are looking for a sense of control over every aspect of their lives. But misinformation is making it harder to carry out the necessary research to make informed decisions. Consumers need clarity, transparency, flexibility and options to make decisions that suit their individual changing needs and circumstances.
“Brands will need to work harder to deliver reliable information and balance censorship and authenticity. The race for the fastest delivery will evolve to focus on being more flexible, giving consumers more control over when products arrive to fit around their schedules or to match their other specific needs. Consumers’ desire to know potential outcomes will manifest in the development of predictive technologies that can anticipate adverse events. From diseases to likely death dates to relationship outcomes using compatibility profiles, technology will evolve to grant consumers the power to plan with peace of mind.”
“Consumers are seeking sources of joy as the continuing pandemic and other local and global crises have caused them anxiety and stress. Many may be feeling a kind of ‘survivor’s guilt’ and, as a result, brands are recognizing the importance of uplifting people by giving them permission to feel happiness once again.
“While the stress caused by the pandemic may no longer be central to consumer needs for fun and escapism, they will continue to seek enjoyment and playfulness. As brand interactions through campaigns, apps and transactions take on more and more gamified elements in response to consumer interest, expect to also see pushback against it and the instant gratification it offers. This tendency will rise from consumers taking a more mindful approach to pleasure and enjoyment.”
“Consumer demand for, and expectations of, brands’ ethical commitments are evolving. They have moved beyond simply wanting brands to ‘be ethical’ and are demanding to see measurable, transparent and consistent actions from those they choose to support. Consumers will look beyond a brand’s achievements and strengths; businesses will need to be transparent about their weaknesses, too, where and why they fail and how they plan to address these issues in future.
“All the transparency in the world doesn’t necessarily help consumers to understand the impact of a brand, which is why it’s key to use metrics that accurately reflect the problems brands are trying to solve. If a company isn’t properly measuring what they aim to fix or change, it’s difficult to determine whether progress is being made, let alone communicate that progress in a way that consumers will understand,” concluded Macke.
SIG announced that it will construct a new plant in Queretaro, Mexico to serve North American markets. The plant will further expand SIG’s global production network and will enable the company to build on its strong track record of growth in North America.
Through its existing sales and service presence, SIG has been able to forge strong relationships with major dairies in Mexico, a large and growing milk market. In the USA, SIG has a well established co-manufacturing customer base and is ideally placed to serve innovative and expanding new categories.
SIG will invest around €40 million in the new plant over the period 2021-2023. The investment will cover state-of-the art production capacity for the printing, cutting and finishing of carton packs. The plant is expected to open in the first quarter of 2023 and will create around 200 jobs. It will have a highly flexible layout with a focus on ergonomics and the environment. Land and buildings will be financed through a long-term lease with an NPV of approximately €20 million.
Mintel, the experts in what consumers want and why, has announced seven trends set to impact global consumer markets in 2021, including analysis, insights, and recommendations centered around consumer behavior, market shifts, innovative brands, and opportunities for companies and brands to act on in the next 12 months:
- Health Undefined: An awareness of wellbeing is at the forefront of consumers’ minds, but a playbook doesn’t exist. Brands have a responsibility and opportunity to set new rules.
- Collective Empowerment: Consumers around the world are making their voices heard loud and clear in the push for equity, agency, and rights.
- Priority Shift: Consumers are seeking a return to the essentials, with a focus on flexible possessions and a reframing of what ownership actually means.
- Coming Together: Consumers are coming together in like-minded communities in order to connect with and support each other, driven by the impact of the global pandemic.
- Virtual Lives: Physical separation due to the pandemic, increased need for escapism, and improved technology are driving consumers towards digital experiences.
- Sustainable Spaces: COVID-19 has subtly but significantly shifted consumer awareness of our relationship with the spaces in which we live, accelerating demand for sustainability.
- Digital Dilemmas: While there are many benefits to a more digitally-connected life, concerns about its negative impacts are putting consumers in a predicament.
Please download the FREE 2021 Global Consumer Trends under www.mintel.com.
Prime season for US and Turkish cherries, low harvest for Spanish nectarines and Italian apricots
Tridge, a global sourcing platform and market intelligence hub for food buyers and suppliers have reported that the US and Turkish cherry market is expected to have a prime harvest season due to optimal growing conditions, whereas Spanish nectarines and Italian apricots are experiencing difficulties as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. With harvest season commencing for many stone fruits, data collected by Tridge reveals which countries are experiencing highs and lows.
Winner: US fresh cherries
The US fresh cherry market is set to remain steady at 450k tons due to prime weather conditions for production, offsetting a biennial off-year decline in cyclical tart production. Washington, California, and Oregon are the primary sweet cherry producing states, accounting for almost 90 percent of the quantity nationwide. Domestically, the cherry season starts as early as April in California; and can finish as late as August in Montana.
Recent years have brought a number of challenges to cherry growers in California, with weather conditions and temperature fluctuations affecting dormancy. 2018 saw a decrease of 58 % in boxes produced (4 million boxes) compared to that of the previous year (9.5 million boxes) due to a freeze during bloom. And, record rains diminished the harvest to 5.25 million boxes in 2019 which was around half of the year’s original forecast.
From 2017 to 2019, tariffs implemented by China contributed to slow exports and production. However, early this year, China lowered the rates on Californian cherries by 30 % as part of the new tariff exclusions for US agricultural products; and, US suppliers are expected to start increasing shipments.
Winner: Turkey fresh cherries
Turkish cherries have had success with harvests in the past few years and despite minor logistical hiccups from the coronavirus, Turkey is expected to continue the positive streak.
The weather has been optimal for stone fruit production in the past few seasons, and 824K tons of cherries were produced in 2018/2019, up by 24.5K tons from the previous season. Forecasts for the MY 2019/2020 season were even higher, at 865K tons of cherries.
Strategically, Turkey has leaned towards satisfying the demands of the export market. Cherry farmers have been selective in planting high-yield trees, as well as planting sweet cherries over sour ones which are higher in-demand.
Turkey’s top export market for stone fruits, Russia, has increased Turkish stone fruit imports the most over the past year, with growth in value of 44.2 % for cherries. Turkey has managed to appeal to consumers worldwide with its attractive prices, an advantage made possible by low labour costs and high supply. Furthermore, Turkey’s currency has been steadily devalued against other currencies. Turkey’s cherry prices in the global market have decreased by 18.9 % within the past year.
The Turkish stone fruit sector remains largely unaffected by the coronavirus. Unlike other major producing countries such as Spain, Turkey has not suffered from severe labour shortages, as production is mainly done with domestic labour rather than seasonal workers. Exports to Russia will experience some delays due to increased border checks, but the impact is expected to be minimal.
Struggler: Spanish nectarines
The harvest season for Spanish nectarines and peaches has started in the regions of Murcia, Catalonia, and Aragon, and is expected to finish late May. Spain shows a consistent export season from March to October, with the peak period between May and September.
However, the yield for the Spanish nectarine market is projected to be 508 million kg, which is a 20 % decrease in volume compared to last year. Suppliers are expecting a further decrease in harvest volume due to labour shortages from Covid-19. While Spain has not implemented any major restrictions, it is estimated that up to 40 % of the workforce will be impacted as migrant workers from Morocco, Belarus, and Ukraine are not allowed to enter the country.
Spain is the biggest exporter of nectarines and peaches, with its main export markets including Germany, France, Italy, and the UK. With export volume totalling 829.4K tons in 2019, the demand for the fruits has increased by 23 % this year. Yet, increased demand and labour shortages have seen the wholesale price of nectarines surge by up to 43 %, which could soften the blow of the smaller harvest. For example, the white nectarine has increased from EUR 1.50 to EUR 2.13, while the yellow nectarine has increased from EUR 1.50 to EUR 2.15.
Struggler: Italian apricots
Italy is the second-biggest exporter of apricots, reaching an export volume of 56.3K tons in 2019. The expected production for 2020, however, has been hampered by frosts that occurred in late March and early April, with production in Northern Italy affected the most. The Northern Emilia Romagna region has seen the biggest estimated production decrease of almost 90 % compared to last year.
The total Italian production volume for 2020 is expected to be 136K tons, a 56 % decrease from approximately 307K tons in 2019. While suppliers have seen increases in demand from Central and Northern regions, there has been very little demand from the South. Apricot producers are also left with more obstacles to overcome as a decreased number of workers has left the farms with a shortage of labour to harvest the fruits.
Hoshik Shin, founder and CEO at Tridge, said: “While there are many external factors that can determine the success of a harvest season, normally the primary influencer is the weather. US cherries are an excellent example of how hot or cold conditions can determine harvest results – optimum harvest conditions translate to greater production volumes which in turn helps meet the demand for the commodity”.
“Unfortunately, some harvest seasons have been negatively impacted due to Covid-19, meaning that labour shortages are contributing to decreases in harvest levels. This means that low prices cannot be easily maintained”.
Using an online sourcing platform that offers market intelligence can help mitigate the impacts on buyers, as it enables them to find alternative suppliers to meet their needs. Suppliers can also benefit from the data provided by platforms such as Tridge, as it can give historic insight into the harvest conditions of previous years as well as provide predictions for future seasons.
Tridge is a global trade ecosystem where buyers and suppliers of agricultural and food products can find everything they need to understand their markets with just a simple search. Using a combination of the latest digital technology and the latest insights gathered through a human network, they provide a very powerful global-scale platform for buyers and suppliers to connect and do business with each other more confidently.
On 4 February, the World Citrus Organisation (WCO) held its first official meeting at Fruit Logistica, Berlin. Following its presentation in October 2019 during Fruit Attraction, WCO members discussed the overall trends of the global citrus market and the draft Statutes of the organisation, which will define the future structure and functioning of WCO. The WCO will be the first and only global platform for dialogue and action among the citrus producing countries worldwide.
During the meeting, the relevance of such a platform was highlighted in the light of the latest world citrus trade and production trends, as presented by CIRAD, the French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development. Participants from Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Peru, South Africa, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, Uruguay and the USA also reaffirmed the consensus of the sector on the need for a global discussion platform. Prospective members have now until mid-March to register following their internal procedures. Other citrus producing countries are also invited to join the organization, as well as private entities interested in the fresh and processed citrus markets, which can become affiliated members of WCO.
During the meeting, WCO founding members also re-confirmed the mandate of the organisation:
- Discuss common issues affecting citrus producing countries.
- Exchange information on production and market trends to prepare for the next decade to come.
- Foster dialogue on policy issues of common concern.
- Identify and promote Research and Innovation projects specific to the citrus sector.
- Liaise with public and private stakeholders on citrus-related matters to highlight the importance of citrus producers and the need for a fair return.
- Promote the global consumption of citrus.
Freshfel Europe, the European Fresh Produce Association, whose Secretariat is based in Brussels, Belgium, will coordinate and administer the WCO. CIRAD was also appointed as market analyst expert to advise the Organisation with analysis of trends for the citrus industry globally.
Following the Berlin discussions, the statutes of the organisation will go through a period of final consultations. WCO will then resume work on the collection of production and marketing data for this season. Discussions are also ongoing with a view to organise a first World Citrus Conference either in late 2020 or in 2021.
As experts in what consumers want and why Mintel is best suited to accurately predict the future of consumer behaviour and what that means for companies and brands. Announced early in November, Mintel is taking a bold approach with its predictions about the future of global consumer markets by incorporating seven key factors that drive consumer spending decisions:
- Wellbeing: Seeking physical and mental wellness.
- Surroundings: Feeling connected to the external environment.
- Technology: Finding solutions through technology in the physical and digital worlds.
- Rights: Feeling respected, protected, and supported.
- Identity: Understanding and expressing oneself and one’s place in society.
- Value: Finding tangible, measurable benefits from investments.
- Experiences: Seeking and discovering stimulation.
Here, Matthew Crabbe, Director of Mintel Trends, APAC, explores the seven drivers and how they will impact markets, brands and consumers over the next decade.
“Wellbeing is no longer about simply wanting to look after oneself in broad terms, nor is it about the extremes of a total lifestyle change. Instead, a holistic approach is becoming a key motivator of consumer behaviour, underpinned by convenience, transparency, and value. Over the coming 10 years, there will be opportunities for brands to become wellbeing partners with customers. While the mass-market and ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach will still have value, we will see further adoption of bespoke solutions. Clean air and water will become selling points, while conscious movement and mindful exercise will become as important as physical fitness.”
“The increased global population and climate crisis are forcing people to reduce their consumption, waste, and energy use. They are learning to share limited space more efficiently and to work more collaboratively. Better and more affordable telecommunication technology allows for flexible work conditions, as consumers increasingly become digital nomads. Over the next 10 years, social tensions will increase as competition for resources rises. This could result in greater stratification of society and failure to tackle the need for more efficient use of resources and better urban planning. There will be greater pressure on cities to continue to expand, encroaching into remaining wildernesses and rural farming areas, exacerbating the cost of producing food – making even basic products more expensive for most people.”
“Mobile technology continues to blur the lines between time, travel, and location for work, learning, and leisure. Elements of virtual and augmented reality (VR/AR) will revolutionise industries like tourism and entertainment, while virtual esports will rival physical sports in popularity. Over the coming decade, consumers will push back against cashless payments and fully unmanned stores, demanding more privacy and seeking more ‘human’ interaction. We’ll also see technologies developed to mitigate the effects of climate migration and displacement, amidst the broader challenges of economic inequality and an ageing society.”
“‘Cancel culture’ is growing as consumers feel increasingly empowered to call out companies, brands, and people they disagree with, greatly shifting influence into the hands of the collective consumer. Youth activism will take the lead in drawing public awareness of causes and will push legislative leaders to develop and enact ideas to make real change. Meanwhile, a more human-centric approach to data is emerging, empowering people to control how their personal data is collected and shared. Consumers are beginning to realise the true value of this data and they are demanding more for it. Looking ahead, blockchain technology will change data ownership, empowering consumers to put the control back in their hands by determining who has access to their information online.”
“Consumers are moving away from the rigid definitions of race, gender, and sexuality, and a movement is emerging toward more fluid, self-selected identities. But as the movement grows, rising feelings of loneliness and isolation are making people feel like they are, in fact, losing their identity. While people are more connected today than ever before, feelings of loneliness and isolation are on the rise and will reach epidemic proportions by 2030. Expect to see companies, brands, social organisations, and governments create technology-based solutions to help combat this. And as identities change, so too will socialising. In the future, people will increasingly be living with members of their ‘tribe’ – dictated by their mindsets and hobbies – rather than their family.”
“The current era is one of excessive and unsustainable consumption. Social media’s ‘swipe up’ culture has perpetuated the chase for buying more and buying better. However, with climate change as one of the defining issues of modern society, consumers are taking a closer look at their own consumption habits. While consumers are in search of a more mindful approach to their spending, they also desire something that is authentic and unique to them. Expect to see a move towards slower, minimal consumerism that emphasises durability and functionality. Rapid urbanisation will shrink available space in the home, office, and shared environments, demanding consumers buy less ‘stuff’.”
“While the demand for stimulation is not new, the role it plays in consumer decision-making is evolving. No longer should ‘the experiential’ be diminished as a mere marketing tool or a fad; instead, consumers are experiencing powerful emotional connections to brands that are creating a point of differentiation. Technology is driving experiences, but the constant connectivity is also causing demand for offline interactions to become more extreme and boundary-pushing. Looking ahead, collective experiences will gain more and more popularity. People will start to redefine what experiences they want as individuals. This will include the experience of doing nothing as people make more mindful decisions about what to do with their time.”
An Austrian winery with 160 years of tradition has launched a spritzer in a can. ‘Kiss Me’ white wine spritzer, from Weingut Johann Müllner, comes in an on-trend slimline can with a stunning contemporary design. However, in the perfect marriage of modern and traditional, the Sauvignon at the heart of the drink comes from a Krems estate which has produced fine wines since the 19th century.
Spritzer is second only to beer on the chart of Austria’s favourite beverages, but until now it has not been available in such a portable, convenient and sustainable format. Weingut Johann Müllner has chosen Ardagh Group’s 250ml aluminium wine can to extend its packaging formats beyond the bottle and thereby bring the spritzer to new markets. In a can, Kiss Me will particularly appeal to discerning consumers who appreciate the importance of tradition and quality in their wine, but are looking for a light, convenient single-serve beverage they can drink on the go.
The can’s head-turning design is based on a multicoloured illustration by pop artist Oxana Prantl, sophisticated modern branding which reflects the premium product. Two of Ardagh’s range of finishes, Matte Impact and Premium Print 1.0, raise the aesthetic to the next level. The matte finish offers both visual and haptic enhancement, making Kiss Me stand out against the standard glossy can on the shelf, while Premium Print 1.0 brings crisp detailing and colour contrast to the artwork. The overall look is sharp, modern and unique, perfect for Kiss Me’s status as the only canned spritzer in Europe.
The Grüner Veltliner at the heart of Kiss Me is a delicate Sauvignon, the product of the cool microclimate of the Kremser Berglagen. Dry, fruity and light with the classic, delicate Veltliner spiciness, it has notes of green apple and citrus with a background of minerality that is pleasantly fresh. Carbonated water is added to this premium wine to bring an exciting sparkle and reduce the alcohol content to a light and refreshing 5.5% ABV. In a spritzer, the carbon dioxide carries the taste, which makes it essential that the packaging is completely airtight. The aluminium can guarantees this and is also lightproof, further preserving the exceptional taste and providing a minimum shelf life of one year.
Johann Müllner represents the fourth generation of Müllners to run the company. He says, ‘Since our estate is steeped in tradition, we are extremely proud to offer the famous Austrian national drink in a can. Recognition of our premium spritzer is essential, so we’re really happy that the superior design and finish of the wine can upholds our brand, as well as helping us achieve sustainability by being fully recyclable.’
Ardagh’s wine can range comprises single-serve sizes of 200ml, 250ml, and a new 187ml format which represents a quarter of the standard 75cl bottle. Beverage cans are light to transport and easy to fill, stack and store, as well as being infinitely recyclable.
Kiss Me is currently available in Krems, in Vienna, and in a rapidly expanding range of outlets throughout Austria, including petrol stations, souvenir shops and transport hubs, as well as from trade beverage suppliers. Tie-ins with major Austrian sporting events and ski resorts are planned, and export to international markets will follow.
As the harvesting of the 2019/20 orange crop steps up in the orchards of São Paulo, citrus prices dropped in the in natura market in April – this scenario should still be observed in May. Besides the higher supply of all varieties, the share of fruits that have not reached the ideal maturation stage for the in natura sector yet increased pressure on quotes.
Concerning early oranges (rubi, hamlin and westin, for instance), trades have been closed since March. However, only in late April these fruits reached a maturation stage closer to that demanded by the in natura market. Thus, the average price for hamlin oranges last month was 23.78 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 14 % down compared to that in March.
As for pear oranges, the first fruits from the 2019/20 crop that were harvested had lower quality for the in natura sector, which pressed quotes in April. Thus, the price average last month, at 31.80 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, was 24.7 % lower than that from March. According to Cepea collaborators, the harvesting anticipation was an attempt of taking advantage of the high price levels – as growers are aware of the estimates indicating that the 2019/20 crop should be larger than the 2018/19, they fear that the prices paid for the fruits may drop sharply in the coming months.
For May, oranges quotes are expected to keep dropping, at least in the first fortnight. Besides the forecast for higher quality and supply in São Paulo, the crushing pace at processing plants should continue slow in the first days of the month. This scenario leads the early oranges that would be allocated for crushing to be sold in the in natura market.
2019/20 CRUSHING – The growers from São Paulo believe that the orange production in the 2019/20 season may be up to 40 % higher than that from 2018/19, based on orchards higher productivity. Higher supply in the new season, however, should allow the opening of new plants of the large-sized processing plants from SP this month. Higher crushing, however, is forecast only for June, when most fruits should reached the maturation stage desired by the sector.
Currently, only two plants of the large-sized processing plants are operating, in Araraquara and Matão. However, while one of them is still receiving fruits in the spot market, remaining from 2018/19, at 18 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at processing plants, the other is only receiving the oranges previously purchased, at more advanced maturation stages. Concerning the prices for the next season, remuneration in the spot market has not been defined yet.