The low quality of orange juice and the limited demand due to high price levels have resulted in sharp price drops in the international market in this early 2025. The May/25 contract at ICE Futures dropped 20.6 % in the partial of March and 42.8 % in the accumulated of 2025, at 276.45 cents of dollar per pound on March 12.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that, in early March, the orange sugar/acid ratio was below the desirable for crushing activities. Moreover, the excess of limonin, due to a heterogeneous harvesting, has also been affecting the final product, since it increases the juice bitterness, reducing the acceptance of major consumers, such as the United States and the European Union.

Lower prices at ICE Futures contrast with the current scenario of orange juice stocks. CitrusBR released a report on March 10 indicating that inventories finished 2024 at 351,483 tons (converted to FCOJ), downing 24.2 % compared to 2023 and the lowest amount since the beginning of the series.

As for the domestic market, the low quality at this end-of-season period pressed down values paid by the industry.

Weather

The warm weather and the low volume of rainfall in São Paulo state since mid-February concerned citrus growers in early March. Many of them fear that the weather may affect both orange and tahiti lime in this end of the 2024/25 season and the citrus production in the next crop (2025/26).

The 2022/23 orange crop from Florida is expected to total 28 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each, the lowest since 1935/36 and 32 % down from that last season, according to the estimates from the USDA.

However, the damages caused by hurricane Ian have not been considered yet. Thus, the recent report has concerned the agents in the citrus sector. The USDA’s next estimates are supposed to be released on Nov. 9th, however, the damages caused by hurricane Ian are not expected to be considered in that report yet, which is supposed to happen in the December’s report.

Thus, local agents believe Florida’s production will be at least 40 % lower than that forecast by the USDA. In 2017/18, when Florida was last hit by a hurricane (Irma), production decreased by 34.6 %, and agents agree that Ian was more destructive than Irma. Besides the damages caused to crops, warehouses and equipment were destroyed too.

In this context, the United States’ necessity of importing orange juice – which was already growing up – is expected to increase even more, which may raise Brazilian juice exports to the country. However, it is important to consider that supply has been low in Brazil, where ending stocks are forecast to be lower than the strategic level (of 250 thousand tons). In August, CitrusBR estimated the ending stocks in the 2022/23 Brazilian season (by June 2023) to total 140 thousand tons, considering higher exports to the USA – however, this increase did not consider the effects of hurricane Ian on Florida crops and production.

So far, imports are following opposite trends in the US, depending on the type of juice: for Not From Concentrate juice (NFC), imports are rising, while for Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ), they are fading. According to Florida’s Citrus Department, from October/21 to August/22, the US imported 9 % less FCOJ than that in the same period of the previous season; however, the imports of NFC juice increased by 43.9 %. On the other hand, ending stocks of both types decreased: 39.5 % for FCOJ and 25.3 % for NFC juice.

Brazil is the US’s major juice supplier. Considering FCOJ, 50.1 % of the total imported by the US in 2021/22 came from Brazil, which was followed by Mexico (42.4 %). Considering NFC juice, 78.6 % of the total imported came from Brazil, against 20.5 % from Mexico.

BRAZILIAN MARKET – The demand for oranges was low in the Brazilian market in the first fortnight of October. According to Cepea collaborators, the unstable weather (with rains and periods of lower temperatures) and the holiday on October 12 constrained consumption. Still, prices remained firm, majorly underpinned by the supply in the in natura market, which is being controlled. For tahiti lime, values faded, due to lower demand. But still, they continued at high levels.