The result of orange juice shipments from Brazil in the 2024/25 season already reflects the lower supply of oranges and the limited stocks of the national OJ. According to data from Comex Stat, from July to December last year, Brazil exported 448.5 thousand tons of orange juice (converted into FCOJ 66 Brix), for a decrease of 23 % compared to that observed in the same period last year and the lowest amount of the Comex Stat series, which has started in 1997. The revenue obtained with sales, in turn, rose 37 % in the same comparison, hitting the record of USD 1.96 billion.

Calculations performed to obtain the total volume exported consider the sum of the three codes available in the Comex Stat system. Specifically about the code “20091200”, which includes non-concentrate types of juice, numbers were converted into FCOJ 66 Brix. Moreover, differently from the methodology used by CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters), all ports in Brazil were taken into account, not only Santos port.

Citrus BR indicates that the volume shipped in the first six months of 2025 (the last ones of the 2024/25 season) may register a lower performance compared to the year before due to the offseason in São Paulo, which limits the availability of juice. Moreover, the international demand is low because of high OJ prices in the international market.

As for destinations of total Brazilian exports, the European Union continues as the most important, participating with 55 % of the revenue obtained with sales in the second semester of 2024. The second major destination is the United States (35 %) – data from Comex Stat.

Between July and December 2024, NFC (not from concentrate) shipments to the US accounted for 62 % of the total, against 53 % in the same period of the year before. As for the European Union, FCOJ exports accounted for circa 70 %, and NFC shipments, 30 %.

Brazil

The fourth blossoming in the citrus belt in São Paulo slightly increased the supply in late January, despite the below-expected quality of the fruits. Low stocks of orange juice have been leading some companies to purchase as many fruits as they can in the spot market in an attempt to reduce the juice deficit. Fundecitrus indicates that the good development of this last blossoming of the 2024/25 season may bring a slightly higher supply for the citrus belt.

The orange output in the citrus belt in southeastern Brazil (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2023/24 season is estimated at 309.34 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, according to data from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released on May 10th. This volume is 1.5 % lower than that harvested last season.

According to Fundecitrus, the major reasons for the lower harvest are rains above the historical average (although they have favoured both the vigor of trees and fruits growth, rains raised flower rotten), the negative biennial cycle (except for northern SP, where productivity was lower last season), lower blooming for some late varieties (whose harvesting was delayed and/or production was high in 2022/23) and the higher incidence of greening, which is expected to raise the rate of fruit fall. On the other hand, high moisture may favour fruits weight, which may be the highest since 2017/18.

As for productivity, the average forecast for the citrus belt is at 918 boxes per hectare, a slight 0.6 % up from that in the 2022/23 season.

Although the harvest expected in the citrus belt is within the average of the last 10 years, the needs of juice processors in SP for oranges is very high. Inventories are low, and the number of oranges to be available is not expected to be enough for stocks to recover.

Indeed, according to a report from CitrusBR released this month, the volume of juice stocked by the processors in SP in Dec/22 was 14.5 % lower than that in the same period of 2021. If this percentage continues stable until the end of the 2022/23 season (on June 30, 2023), ending stocks may total 122.3 thousand tons (juice equivalent), very low – maybe even insufficient – to meet the markets’ demand until the new season steps up.