The 2024/25 orange crushing was moving at a good pace at juice processing companies in São Paulo state at the end of September. According to players, the pear orange has been the most processed variety; however, the harvesting pace has been progressing, and the participation of late fruits (such as valencia and natal) has been increasing.

The harvesting is more advanced due to the higher share of fruits from the first blossoming. Data from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) indicate that 64 % of oranges produced in this season account for the first blossoming, higher than the last four crops (36 % of the fruits, at most). Thus, the crushing pace is likely to reduce earlier this year – the second blossoming considers fruits that will be harvested from October on, according to Fundecitrus.

In addition to that, greening (HLB – Huanglongbing), above-average temperatures and the dry weather also accelerate the harvesting. As for greening, one of the symptoms of the disease is the early fruit drop, and producers may harvest in advance to avoid losses. Weather conditions, in turn, accelerate the ripening and may result in early fruit drop.

The share of late fruits in processing activities is likely to be higher in October, but the amount of pear oranges allocated to juice production can still be relevant.

Stocks

Cepea calculations, based on data released by CitrusBR on Sept. 19, indicate that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the current crop (2024/25), ending this season technically zero. Not even the forecast of improvement in industrial yield (due to below-average rainfall) and limited exports will be enough to compensate for the decrease in the volume of fruit processed.

According to CitrusBR, the stocked quantity of the commodity was 116.7 thousand tons at the end of 2023/24 crop (on June 30, 2024), being 37.7 % higher than that on the same period last year, but the third lowest in history (the series has started in 1988/89).

The harvesting of late orange varieties began at a slow pace in mid-October. Although maturation was not ideal then, oranges were within the minimum standards required by the market, leading farmers to begin the harvesting.

The first variety available in the market was valência, followed by natal. Even the variety “folha murcha”, whose harvesting usually begins in December, arrived at the market in the first fortnight of November.

Agents expect supply (majorly of valência and natal oranges) to increase in the coming weeks, as the harvesting steps up in December – activities are forecast to end in mid-February. Also, the share of late varieties at juice processing plants is expected to gradually increase this month, accounting for the most part in December.

At juice processors, although quality standards (ratio and brix) are not within requirements, agents from the industry reported to be receiving late varieties – many of them blend these varieties with the juice from pear oranges without any quality loss. However, the supply of these varieties is still low because of difficulties to find labor for the harvesting.