A survey carried out by independent audits firms with each of CitrusBR members, and subsequently consolidated confidentially by an external audit, found that the global inventories of Brazilian orange juice, converted into FCOJ Equivalent, held by CitrusBR members on December 31st, 2023 were 463,940.92 tons. Although representing an increase of 6.7 % in comparison to the 434,943 tonnes from the previous season, this number is the second lowest figure in the historical series. The disclosure of final processing data and industrial yield on fruit will be done by CitrusBR later in 2024.

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A survey carried out through independent auditing of each of the companies associated with CitrusBR and also consolidated by external auditing revealed that the total oranges processed in the Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais Citrus Belt in the 2022/23 season was estimated at 265,292,217 boxes of oranges of 40.8 kg of which 243,967,550 boxes were processed by CitrusBR members and close to 21.3 million boxes were processed by non-members.

With the final estimated juice yield on fruit of 280.58 boxes of oranges to produce one metric ton of FCOJ equivalent in aggregate for CitrusBR members and non-members, the final estimate for total orange juice production for the 2022/23 season was of 945,529 metric tons of FCOJ equivalent …

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The agents in the citrus market have been concerned about two recent events: hurricane Idalia, which hit Florida in late August (the third hurricane that hit the North-American State in less than a year), and the release of orange juice inventories at Brazilian processors, which, according to CitrusBR, are currently at the lowest levels since the beginning of the historical series, 12 years ago.

According to CitrusBR, on June 30th, 2023, when the 2022/23 season ended, the ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent totaled 84.745 thousand tons, 40.7 % lower than that at the end of the previous season and 39.5 % below that estimated by CitrusBR in August last year.

The reasons for these low inventories are the lower number of fruits processed (because of the reduced crop and losses caused by the lack of labor for the harvest), lower yield of oranges (partially due to the harvest delay) and higher juice exports (majorly to the United States) compared to that last season – a reflex of lower production in Florida.

These figures have raised concerns about the world supply of orange juice. The output in the current season (2023/24) is not forecast to be high and may not be enough for a recovery in the volume stocked by Brazilian processors.

So far, CitrusBR has preferred not to estimate the ending stocks for the 23/24 season (in June 2024), due to the challenges related to brix levels, industrial yield and even the volume processed, which may change until the end of the season. However, Cepea calculations based on data from Fundecitrus released in May 2023 show that inventories will hardly be higher by the end of the season, scenario that may become worse if exports rise again and if yield is below the average. In this context, orange production in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) will have to be high in the coming season (2024/25) for inventories to recover, at least partially, in June 2025.

In late February, the large-sized processors in São Paulo made their first purchase proposals for the oranges from the 2022/23 crop. Of the three companies in the state, two of them are interested in closing deals, bidding from BRL 30 – BRL 32.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered. The third processing plant was only renewing existing contracts. However, the number of deals closed is still low, since farmers expect prices to rise higher, due to both firm demand from the industry and, largely, higher production costs.

Indeed, data recently released by CitrusBR show that the volume of orange juice stocked by the end of the current season (in June 2022) will not be enough to supply the international market until the middle of next season. According to CitrusBR, ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent in the 2021/22 season are expected to total 126.574 thousand tons – possibly ranging between 115 and 135 thousand tons. It is important to mention that previous estimates (from September 2021) pointed to stocks between 170 and 190 thousand tons, but bad weather conditions (drought and frosts) reduced processing and hampered fruits development and ripening (influencing industrial yield).

If CitrusBR’s forecasts are confirmed, the volume stocked is expected to be much lower than the strategic level, of 250 thousand tons, scenario that may be observed at least until the end of the 2022/23 season (in June 2023) if the number of oranges produced is not high.

Cepea calculations show that, for stocks to surpass the strategic level by the end of next season, the number of boxes harvested in the citrus belt in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro needs to be over 340 million – and of this total, 300 million need to be allocated to the industry. For these results were considered sales of a million tons (slightly lower than the average) and the average industrial yield of the past five crops.

Although it seems juice supply in Brazil will be tight for at least one more season, agents from processors have not reported any significant valuations for the commodity yet. This would be the major reason why bids for the new season have not been higher. On Feb. 23, the May contract at ICE Futures closed at USD 1,993/ton, 2 % down from that on December 30. However, it is important to mention that values at ICE Futures do not reflect real sales prices of processing plants.

One of the facts that may be constraining juice valuations abroad is the fear of bottling plants as for the negative effects of higher prices in Brazil. In the major destinations for the Brazilian orange juice, the United States and the European Union, demand for the product has been fading for some years, majorly because of the wide variety of other beverages, such as flavoured water, energy drinks and other types of juice, for instance.

The current number of flowers in the orange orchards in São Paulo – which will give origin to the fruits from the 2022/23 season – is considered satisfactory in most citrus-producing regions within the state. In general, while in irrigated orchards blooming was observed from September onwards, in non-irrigated orchards, flowers were only observed in October, after the late arrival of rainfall.

Agents have been concerned about the possible effects of the lack of rains this year on the vigor of orange trees, since low moisture may hamper fruit set, increasing the rate of fruitlet fall in irrigated orchards and, largely, in the orchards in dryland.

According to forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 90 % chance of La Niña forming in Brazil until the end of 2021. If this is confirmed, rainfall in the coming months may be lower than usual in the southeastern region of the country. However, La Niña is forecast to be weak in Brazil.

This scenario may have a negative influence on the output from the 2022/23 season, since the development stage of plants in the coming months demands good amounts of water. With estimates for low ending stocks of orange juice in the 2021/22 season, the output from 2022/23 needs to be high in order to ensure comfortable inventories for world supply.

Cepea calculations show that, for ending stocks in the 2022/23 season (June 2023) to return to the strategic level of 250 thousand tons, the output next season needs to surpass 330 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each. In this context, the average productivity would have to be around a thousand boxes per hectare, which has only been observed in seasons favored by the weather.

By the end of the 2020/21 season, in June 2021, the inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) equivalent at Brazilian processors totaled 316.93 thousand tons, according to data from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released in mid-August. Compared to that at the end of the 2019/20 season, inventories decreased by 33 %. This reduction was already expected by agents, due to the slower crushing pace of oranges in 2020/21, when orange production was low.

CitrusBR avoided releasing estimates for the current season because of the weather issues (extended drought in the citrus belt and frosts in late July) in the major citrus-producing regions in Brazil, which are still concerning agents. However, ending stocks in the 2021/22 season (by June 2022) may be lower than the strategic level.

So far, considering Fundecitrus’ (Citrus Defense Fund) production estimates from May, of 294 million boxes (40.8 kilograms each), the volume processed may be around 250 million boxes. In that scenario, Cepea data indicate that ending stocks in the 2021/22 season (which ends in June/22) may not be enough to generate a world surplus of orange juice.

Also, agents in the Brazilian citrus sector believe that the estimates from Fundecitrus will be revised down, due to the drought and frosts in Brazil. In this context, the volume processed may be revised too, and juice inventories may be even lower. Thus, processors will depend on higher orange production in 2022/23 to, at least, replenish inventories – which is a concern too, considering that the effects of the weather may be extended to the coming season, since many trees are currently debilitated.

As regards orange processing, the crushing pace for the fruits from 2021/22 was fast in August at the large-sized plants in São Paulo State (SP), with mostly pear oranges being crushed.

Orange processing is expected to last until mid-February/March 2022, with less plants in activity compared to that in the second semester of 2021, however, with higher volumes being produced than that in the same period of previous years, because of the delay in the development of trees (due to weather issues) and irregular flowering. It is worth to consider that the 2021/22 season is expected to have higher volumes of fruits from the third and fourth flowering events (altogether) since Fundecitrus began estimating crops, in 2015/16 – making it a late crop.

BRAZILIAN MARKET IN AUGUST – The demand for oranges was low in the Brazilian market in August, constrained by the current high price levels and lower quality of the oranges available (small-sized and wilted). Still, prices increased, boosted by low supply.

The volume of orange juice stocked at Brazilian processors in the 2020/21 season (June 2021) is expected to be higher than the strategic limit (250 thousand tons). On the other hand, in the 2021/22 season (June 2022), the volume stocked may be lower than that.

As regards the 2020/21 crop, a report released by CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) on June 9 indicates that the inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent may total 310.759 thousand tons in June 2021, 34 % down from that in the same period of the 2019/20 season, but 14 % up from that previously estimated (in February 2021).

In the 2021/22 season, although oranges still need to ripen, juice inventories are likely to decrease, despite the possible recovery of production forecast by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund).

Although this scenario is not a threat to world supply in the 2021/22 season, it has been concerning agents about availability in the following season (2022/23), since production would have to be higher in order to avoid a lack of juice. However, with the recent area reduction in the Brazilian citrus belt, production should hardly surpass 350 million boxes. Thus, the prices paid to orange farmers in Brazil are likely to continue at high levels, at least until next season.

ORANGE AREA IN BRAZIL – The crop forecast survey released by Fundecitrus in late May surprised agents from the Brazilian citrus sector. The area allocated to orange groves in the 2021/22 season had its second largest decrease – in terms of both hectares and percentage – since the beginning of the PES project, in 2015/16.

In the 2021/22 season, the area allocated to orange groves might total 379.4 thousand hectares, 16.262 hectares smaller (- 4 %) than that in the previous season.

According to Fundecitrus, one of the reasons for this decrease is the drought, which is becoming more and more severe in Brazil, majorly in the current season. Thus, area reductions were more significant in the citrus-producing regions of São Paulo that had low rainfall in the last couple of years, with the worst effects observed in non-irrigated, condensed and rootstock groves, which are not that drought-resistant. In these groves, productivity decreased sharply last season, and many plants died. Besides, the current high prices of some commodities, such as corn, soybean and sugar, have attracted farmers.

This area reduction should considerably lower the productive potential of the citrus belt to around 340 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms in years of good productivity (1,000 boxes per hectare, on average).

BRAZILIAN MARKET IN JUNE – The weak demand for oranges in the in natura market of SP along with the current low temperatures pressed down orange prices in the first fortnight of June. However, expectations are for limited price drops or even price rises as processing steps up, reducing supply in the in natura market, largely of early varieties.

Orange juice inventories ended the 2019-20 season (on June 30, 2020) on the rise, as already expected by agents from the Brazilian citrus market. According to CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters), the volume stocked by then totaled 471.138 thousand tons, a staggering 86 % up compared to that in the previous season, due to the higher orange production.

However, although the 2020-21 crop started with high volumes stocked, production is forecast to be low in São Paulo State and the Triângulo Mineiro, which is keeping firm the demand from processors for oranges. This scenario should lower inventories by the end of the current crop.

A report released by Citrus BR in late August estimates that, on June 30 2021, the inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent from the 20-21 crop will total from 240 to 280 thousand tons, 49 % down compared to that in the previous season.

These estimates consider that around 238 million boxes of 40.8 kilos of oranges will be processed (with 50 million boxes left to be sold in the in natura market), average yield of 268 boxes to produce a ton of FCOJ Equivalent and stable sales, at 1.15 million tons. These results are similar to that estimated by Cepea in May, at 250 thousand tons. It is worth to mention that both estimates (from CitrusBR and Cepea) take into consideration the fact that there may be adjustments in industrial yield, due to the multiple flowerings registered in 2020-21.

According to agents from processors, yield has been low, and much more than the 268 boxes are needed to produce a ton of juice, as estimated by CitrusBR. Although this number tends to decrease along the season, it is concerning, since the prices paid for the fruits have been higher this season, meaning that remuneration for lower quality oranges is currently higher. In this scenario, the only processors that has been purchasing oranges in the Brazilian spot market is bidding prices according to yield: when more than 290 boxes are needed for a ton of juice, prices average 21.60 BRL/box, while for the fruits with higher yield, prices reach 24.00 BRL/box.

BRAZILIAN MARKET IN AUGUST – Despite the weak demand, due to the colder weather, orange prices remained firm in August, underpinned by the lower supply of higher quality fruits in the in natura market. Besides, the fast crushing pace at the large-sized processors in SP helped to reduce availability in the market. Thus, between August 1st and 31, the average price for pear oranges closed at 30.01 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 11.8 % higher than that in July.

TAHITI LIME – Tahiti lime supply was low in the Brazilian market in August, forecast to increase only from mid-September. The fruits that were on tree had not reached the ideal size and maturation to be harvested, since the weather was dry in the last months.

Thus, prices were firm last month, which limited deals in the in natura market of São Paulo State. In August, the average price for tahiti lime was 85.15 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 40 % up compared to that in July.

Orange prices were weakened in the Brazilian market in May, due to both the colder weather and high supply at the orchards from SP.

As crushing increases in Brazil, citrus farmers tend to reduce orange supply to the in natura market, aiming to prioritize the trades already closed with processing plants – which may prevent prices from dropping more sharply – many farmers allocated large volumes of early oranges to the in natura segment in May, waiting for crushing to start at the industry.

Between May 2 and 31, pear orange quotes averaged 21.17 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 33.4 % down compared to that between April 1 and 30.

Concerning tahiti lime, besides the higher supply, quotes were pressed down by the low demand, from both the Brazilian and the international markets. In May, tahiti lime quotes averaged 15.21 BRL per 27-kilo box, on tree, 36.8 % down compared to that in April.

The larger crop estimated by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) for the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in 2019/20, at 388.89 million boxes of 40.8 kilos (36 % larger than that from the 2018/19 season), should offset the inventories at processing plants from São Paulo in June 2020, according to Cepea estimates. However, this is not a high supply scenario, since the volume produced in 2018/19 was small and processing plants need to purchase raw material in order to replenish the low inventories forecast for June 2019.

According to CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) estimates from Feb/19, the 2018/19 season should end, in June/19, with the smallest output since June/11, smaller than the strategic amount (of 250 thousand tons). Thus, if these estimates are confirmed, industrial demand may be firm in 2019/20, offsetting higher orange supply – this context has practically been confirmed, considering the anticipated trades closed in late 2018 at firm prices.

According to Cepea’s first estimates, by the end of the 2019/20 season (in June/20), juice inventories may surpass 300 thousand tons (Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice – FCOJ – Equivalent). For this calculation, Cepea considered the initial inventories forecast by CitrusBR (200.6 thousand tons), 300 million boxes crushed (88 million boxes allocated to the in natura market), average yield at 260 boxes for each ton of orange juice and sales at 1.05 million tons.

Thus, although 300 thousand tons are higher than the strategic level stablished, it is important to consider that production has oscillated in the citrus belt from year to year, with periods of larger volumes followed by years of low production. In this scenario, taking into consideration that the 2020/21 crop may be smaller, inventories should be kept stable at processing plants, aiming to avoid major decreases in the global supply.

PRICES PAID TO CITRUS GROWERS IN 2019/20 – Despite the larger volume forecast for the citrus belt, growers’ revenue should be positive in 2019/20, due to high productivity (which may reduce the cost per unit). Besides, much of the output has been purchased at the same price levels from 2018/19, between 20 and 22 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at processing plants (counting or not on a participation additional in the juice selling price in the international market).

The prices paid to the orange growers from São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro region in the 2019/20 season should be positive, despite the larger production, since inventories are forecast to, again, decrease to critical levels at the processors from SP State (because of the lower production in 2018/19), underpinning the demand for the fruit.

According to estimates from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released in August/18, the ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent forecast to June 30 2019, at 146.7 thousand tons, would only be enough for a two-month exporting period. Therefore, this scenario could underpin orange prices in the Brazilian market in 2019, despite the high production in the 2019/20 season – although positive, the ending stocks in June/18 (related to the 2017/18 crop) were not too large.

Indeed, the first bids from large-sized processors for the oranges from the 2019/20 crop started early again (in October/18). Bidding prices were around 22 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at processors (with the possibility of a bonus added to the orange selling price in the international market). In the 2018/29 crop, the first bids were around 20 BRL per box.

Although cautious at first, citrus growers accepted to trade in mid-November, fearing that bidding prices could drop in the following months. Early purchases have been a strategy of large-sized processors since 2016 (when they started closing deals in October, although the 2017/18 crop was one of the largest in all times).

PRODUCTION – Citrus growers believe that the 2019/20 crop will be positive, based on the weather, which favored plants development during blossoming and fruitlet settlement. The main blossoming, which occurred between August and September in most orchards, were large.

In mid-December, the wide temperature range led part of the fruitlets to drop in some regions, mainly in late orange orchards, which are more sensitive to the weather. However, citrus farmers believe these losses should not be significant to the next season results. Still, some growers do not expect a super crop and believe the volume harvested will only recover in 2019/20; others forecast a 40% increase compared to 2018/19.

TAHITI LIME – The tahiti lime volume forecast to be harvested during the crop peak in São Paulo State, in the first quarter of 2019, is also positive. According to Brazilian agents, production may be higher than that from 2018, since the rains in the second semester last year were more frequent and well distributed.

Despite the higher supply, the demand from processors may help to underpin the prices paid to growers, controlling availability in the in natura segment. The good exports performance should also help to underpin tahiti lime quotes, even during the crop peak – shipments may continue at a fast pace, due to the firm demand for the fruit, mainly from Europe, where consumption has been increasing.

The smaller crop forecast for the Brazilian citrus belt in 2018/19 (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro), at 288.29 million 40.8-kilo boxes (almost 30 % lower than the 2017/18 season), should result in critical inventories at processors from São Paulo State on June 30 2019. In 2017//18, despite the larger crop, supply was not significant, only enough to slightly increase the low inventories from 2016/17.

Thus, by June 2019, inventories should be 50 % smaller, considering forecasts for the 2018/19 crop. Data released by CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) on May 22 estimated ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent from 55.9 thousand tons to 154.7 thousand tons in June 2019. CitrusBR forecasts were based on the volumes crushed in the 2017/18 season, at around 243.4 million 40.8-kilo boxes, 34% down compared to the 370 million boxes crushed in the current season (2017/18).

Cepea calculations, however, indicate inventories are more likely to be from 55.9 to 102.6 thousand tons, not reaching the maximum level estimated by CitrusBR (at 154.7 thousand tons). To forecast that scenario, CitrusBR considered exportations will keep firm. Now, if processors do not aim to reduce inventories that much, the volume shipped may decrease in 2018/19.

The 2017/18 ending stocks of orange juice should be at 305.9 thousand tons by June 30 2018, 20.3 % up compared to that forecast in February/18. The positive 2017/18 harvesting ensured comfortable inventories to processors this year.

n general, the global demand for orange juice has been firm, mainly from the United States, Considering Florida crop may be 35 % lower, according to the USDA, juice availability should continue low in the next season (2019/20).

Regarding growers’ revenue, forecasts for the short-term indicate prices may not change much. Most farmers have already closed contracts with processors, and even if bidding prices rise from now onward, only a few growers would have fruits available for trading. Besides, productivity should be low, since the number of boxes produced per hectare results in a higher cost per unit and lower margins.

BRAZILIAN MARKET – Although the trading pace in the Brazilian citrus market slowed down in the second week of June, the supply of oranges in the stages demanded by the in natura market from São Paulo decreased, since delivery of these fruits to processors stepped up early in the month, when truckers’ strike ended. Thus, in the first fortnight of June, pear orange quotes averaged 25.52 BRL per 40.8-kilo, on tree, 1 % down compared to that in the same period of May.

As for tahiti lime, harvesting started again (after the end of truckers’ strike), pressing down quotes as well. Besides, demand was weakened in the domestic market. In the first fortnight of June, tahiti lime quotes averaged 36.36 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 26.1 % down compared to that between May 1 and 15.

New estimates for the 2017/18 orange production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) may affect ending stocks of the season, on June 30, 2018. Data released by CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) indicate that the larger orange harvest may more than double the juice volume held by processing companies in São Paulo, compared to the same period last season.

The Association says that the season may finish with juice inventories at 254.2 thousand tons (equivalent to concentrate juice), which represents 12 weeks of consumption. This figure is 22 % higher than that estimated in August 2017; however, it is still the fourth lowest over the last 20 years.

Although still uncertain, initial expectations indicate that the 2018/19 orange production will be smaller than in the current season, except in southwestern São Paulo (Avaré and surroundings), where the weather may allow production similar to that in 2017/18. Therefore, there is nothing indicating orange juice surplus, also based on the good performance of exportations.

The recovery of inventories compared to the CitrusBR projection released in August was already expected by the sector, given that estimates for the orange crop, performed by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund), has already been reviewed upwards three times since the first release of CitrusBR. In the first estimate (May/17), Fundecitrus forecast 364.5 million 40.8-kilo boxes in São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro; however, due to favorable weather conditions during the season and better cultural practices, that estimate was revised up to 397.27 million boxes on the projection released on February, 15.

The good rainfall, on the other hand, may affect industrial revenue (number of necessary orange boxes to produce one ton of concentrate juice). CitrusBR data indicate that, on the average of the season, 282.49 orange boxes may be necessary for each juice ton, 5.7 % more compared to the previous estimate (August).

2017/18 CROP – According to Fundecitrus data released on February 15, the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) may produce 397.27 million 40.8-kilo boxes of oranges in the 2017/18 season, 62 % more than in the 2016/17 season (245.3 million boxes) and 3.13 % higher in relation to December forecasts. Fundecitrus says that, considering all varieties, 97 % of the total of the crop has already been harvested.

The survey conducted by independent auditing firms with each of CitrusBR associate member companies and consolidated by external auditing ascertained that global inventories of Brazilian orange juice, converted into Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice Equivalent (FCOJ  66° Brix)  at CitrusBR associate members’ facilities on December 31, 2017, amounted to 702,981 tons.

This volume indicates an increase of 205,598 tons or 41.3% when compared to the 497,383 tons existing 12 months before on December 31, 2016. The same survey indicates that on June 30th, 2018, the global inventories of Brazilian Orange Juice are anticipated to be 254.2 thousand tons of FCOJ Equivalent 66° Brix.

This projection, if confirmed, will represent an increase of 146,813 tons as compared to the 107,387 tons which were existing at all CitrusBR members’ facilities on June 30th, 2017, as previously informed to the market. …

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Confirming initial expectations of Cepea, ending stocks of orange juice at processors from São Paulo State should be recovered by the end of the 2017/18 season (June/18), but the levels stored continue to indicate low orange juice supply.

Data from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) indicate that inventories at Cutrale, Citrosuco and Louis Dreyfus should total only 207.6 thousand tons of frozen concentrate orange juice (FCOJ) Equivalent on June 30, 2018. That amount, however, is 93 % higher than the 107 thousand tons observed at the end of the 2016/17 season.

This increase of inventory is based on crushing forecasts of CitrusBR at 314.47 million boxes, with an average processing yield at 267.33 boxes to produce one ton of FCOJ Equivalent, and sales (domestic and international) at 1.107 million tons of the product. All these items are forecast to recover from the scenario observed last season (2016/17); however, yield should remain at levels below the historical average.

A significant recovery will only be possible due to a large crop in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro), forecast by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) at 364.47 million boxes. However, the possibility of replenishments of inventories (greater than 200 thousand tons) in June 2019 will depend, once again, on a large production at the citrus belt in the 2018/19 season. According to Cepea data, if sales, yield and volume from other states continue stable, processors will need to crush around 290 million boxes in 2018/19, meaning a crop in the citrus belt from SP + Triângulo Mineiro similar or greater than 340 million boxes (in natura consumption forecast at 50 million).

The replenishment of inventories at processors from São Paulo is a relief in light of the very low supply in the previous crop, when the Brazilian exportations of FCOJ Equivalent dropped 17 %. Therefore, forecasts for a higher orange juice supply may increase the Brazilian exportations in the 2017/18 season.

DOMESTIC MARKET – Pear orange quotes increased in the domestic market in the first fortnight of August, due to higher demand for the in natura fruit (favored by warmer weather in SP and the return of school classes) and crushing intensification in processors from São Paulo, which gradually reduced the volume available in the market. Between August 1 and 15, pear orange quotes averaged 16.54 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 1.4 % up compared to the first fortnight of July (3-14).