The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil in the partial of the 2023/24 season (from July/23 to March/24) was below that registered in the same period of the previous crop. According to players from the industry, the low availability of the commodity in the Brazilian market may be limiting shipments. As for prices of the juice sold to the international market, they moved up.

The 2023/24 season in Brazil is expected to finish (in June/24) with reduced orange juice stocks at the industry. As a result, some players are unwilling to export large amounts in order to avoid having zero stocks by the end of 2023/24.

According to data from Comex Stat, Brazil exported 812.2 thousand tons of orange juice in the partial of 2023/24, for a decrease of 7.7 % compared to the same period last season. The revenue totaled USD 2.08 billion, moving up 23 % this season in relation to the previous and close to the total registered in the crop before (USD 2.14 billion up to June/23).

OJ shipments to the European Union amounted 419.9 thousand tons from July/23 to March/24, downing 7.7 % against the same period of 2022/23. The income, in turn, rose 26 %, at USD 1.1 billion. To the US, exports dropped 4.4 % in relation to that in 2022/23, at 265.7 thousand tons. The income verified between July/23 and March/24 was USD 667.1 million, 18 % up against the same period last season.

Market in Brazil

The market of the tahiti lime in São Paulo closed March with firm prices. Players surveyed by Cepea say that this is related to the low supply, since rains affected the harvest. As a result, the monthly price average was BRL 31.17 per 27-kilo box, harvested, 55 % up in relation to February.

As for the orange, prices also closed March at higher levels. The supply was low (due to the offseason period and to the good demand from the industry) and the demand in the in natura market was firm, because of high temperatures. Therefore, the price average was BRL 93.56 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, upping 7 % in relation to February.

In the U.S. the share of Gen Zers born between 1997 and 2002 who say they plan to drink less alcohol in 2024 jumped 53 % year over year. Sixty-one percent say they plan to cut back on their alcohol consumption, compared to 40 % who said they planned to drink less in 2023.

The findings are from the latest consumer sentiment survey about the sober curious movement, a follow-up to a similar survey conducted in January 2023. Both surveys were commissioned by NCSolutions (NCS). The findings also include an analysis of NCS’ proprietary consumer purchase data. NCS is the leading company for improving advertising effectiveness for the consumer packaged goods (CPG) ecosystem.

More millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) said they’d drink less in 2024 (49 %), an increase of 26 % from those surveyed a year before. Overall, 41 % of all Americans plan to drink less in 2024, up from 34 % the year before. Together, these findings indicate the sober curious movement gained strength over the last year, largely due to interest from younger generations.

“Nonalcoholic alternatives, once a niche category, are becoming more mainstream,” said Alan Miles, chief executive officer, NCSolutions. “Younger consumers are increasingly expressing a growing interest in healthier options for social drinking. Beverage brands have a real opportunity to engage and build brand loyalty with the next generation of consumers by focusing on the right combination of creative, product, placement and timing.”

Tap into Gen Z with sober curious lifestyle messages

Younger consumers say saving money and improving physical health are the top reasons they switch to a sober lifestyle. More than one-third (36 %) of Gen Z say they’re going alcohol-free for their mental health.

This impacts the type of advertising most likely to influence purchases: over one-third of Gen Zers (34 %) say they’re more likely to try a new beverage product if it’s aligned with the sober curious lifestyle, compared to 17 % of all Americans. The finding adds further nuance to the marketing preferences of Gen Z, who are known to have an affinity for brands whose missions align with their values.

Nearly half (45 %) of Gen Zers say social media is the most effective advertising channel to help them learn about new nonalcoholic beverage options, followed by internet searches (16 %) and streaming TV (15 %). In addition, nearly one in four (24 %) have tried a nonalcoholic beverage because a celebrity or influencer endorsed it.

Mocktails are twice as popular as nonalcoholic beer

Sober curious consumers surveyed are twice as likely to choose a mocktail than a nonalcoholic beer. One in five (19 %) Americans said they drank a mocktail in 2023, compared to one in 10 who drank nonalcoholic beer. More than one-third (37 %) said they drank mocktails most often.

Mocktails were especially popular among younger generations in 2023. Thirty-seven percent of Gen Z said they drank mocktails last year, compared to 16 % who said they had nonalcoholic beer and 10 % who said they drank nonalcoholic wine.

Among millennials, 30 % said they drank mocktails in 2023, compared to 15 % who drank nonalcoholic beer and 9 % who had nonalcoholic wine.

Seventeen percent of both millennials and Gen Z said they had tried THC and CBD-infused drinks in 2023.

December leads for nonalcoholic beverage sales

Interest in Dry and Damp January continues to expand. Consumers purchased the least amount of alcoholic beverages in January 2023 (down 24 % from December 2022) and August 2023 (down 10 % from July 2023), according to NCS purchase data. This follows a 19 % drop in January 2022 compared to December 2021.

December was the most popular month of the year to buy alcohol in 2023, followed by May and March. Month-over-month purchases of alcohol in December increased 16 % over November. This increase was two times higher than the 8 % month-over-month increase in December 2022 and rose 8 % in May, compared to April. By contrast, in 2022, the summer and winter holidays saw the highest increase in purchases of alcoholic beverages.

“Alcohol consumption is traditionally seasonal. Consumers purchase significantly more during December in preparation for the holidays,” Miles said. “In the past, we’ve seen alcohol sales rise during summer months, but now the peak is as early as May. Beverage brands have the opportunity to leverage the sober curious trend beyond January and into the summer months, targeting younger consumers with new summer-focused nonalcoholic products and health-oriented creative.”

The harvesting of late orange varieties began at a slow pace in mid-October. Although maturation was not ideal then, oranges were within the minimum standards required by the market, leading farmers to begin the harvesting.

The first variety available in the market was valência, followed by natal. Even the variety “folha murcha”, whose harvesting usually begins in December, arrived at the market in the first fortnight of November.

Agents expect supply (majorly of valência and natal oranges) to increase in the coming weeks, as the harvesting steps up in December – activities are forecast to end in mid-February. Also, the share of late varieties at juice processing plants is expected to gradually increase this month, accounting for the most part in December.

At juice processors, although quality standards (ratio and brix) are not within requirements, agents from the industry reported to be receiving late varieties – many of them blend these varieties with the juice from pear oranges without any quality loss. However, the supply of these varieties is still low because of difficulties to find labor for the harvesting.