Heavy rains in January affected the citrus market, especially the in natura segment. High humidity increased the incidence of fungus on trees, leading fruits to drop and affecting the quality. Part of the production that is sent to the industry ends up lost, while another share hits the market with low quality, pressing down quotations in a scenario of high supply.
In spite of the high humidity, January ended with relative stable prices of pear oranges for the industry. Players say that processing activities have been reducing gradually in some units in São Paulo, while other have directed part of their capacity to crush the tahiti lime.
The price average in January was at BRL 37.17 per 40.8-kilo box, stable in relation to December (BRL 37.05/box).
As for the tahiti lime, the high supply continues to press down values. Players surveyed by Cepea say that, due to low quotations verified in previous weeks, producers keep fruits on trees for longer, and they are likely to fall.
The price average for the tahiti lime is at BRL 22.97 per 27.2-kilo box in the last week of January, downing 9 % compared to that in the period before. Quotations for the fruit to export were at BRL 26.71 per 27.2-kilo box, for a decrease of 8 %.
The new crop estimate released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in May indicates that the orange production in the citrus belt in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro and in the southwest of Minas Gerais is likely to total 314.6 million 40.8-kg boxes in 2025/26, a sharp rise of 36.2 % compared to the crop before. This increase brings a relief for the sector, especially because of the current scenario of limited orange juice stocks. By July/25, the volume in stock would be below the level that is considered strategic.
In case processing activities follow the harvesting increase at the same proportion, inventories by July 2026 are likely to be close to a safer volume to supply the global market. As a result, prices paid to producers, which hit records in the crop before (especially in October 2024), may not remain at the same levels. Thus, quotations are likely to continue above the historical average.
Among the aspects that justify the increase of the production estimate are the higher number of producing trees and the improvement of the weather during the cycle. Fundecitrus says that the number of producing trees upped 7.5 % compared to the previous season, changing from 169.9 million to 182.7 million trees.
The 2024/25 orange crushing was moving at a good pace at juice processing companies in São Paulo state at the end of September. According to players, the pear orange has been the most processed variety; however, the harvesting pace has been progressing, and the participation of late fruits (such as valencia and natal) has been increasing.
The harvesting is more advanced due to the higher share of fruits from the first blossoming. Data from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) indicate that 64 % of oranges produced in this season account for the first blossoming, higher than the last four crops (36 % of the fruits, at most). Thus, the crushing pace is likely to reduce earlier this year – the second blossoming considers fruits that will be harvested from October on, according to Fundecitrus.
In addition to that, greening (HLB – Huanglongbing), above-average temperatures and the dry weather also accelerate the harvesting. As for greening, one of the symptoms of the disease is the early fruit drop, and producers may harvest in advance to avoid losses. Weather conditions, in turn, accelerate the ripening and may result in early fruit drop.
The share of late fruits in processing activities is likely to be higher in October, but the amount of pear oranges allocated to juice production can still be relevant.
Stocks
Cepea calculations, based on data released by CitrusBR on Sept. 19, indicate that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the current crop (2024/25), ending this season technically zero. Not even the forecast of improvement in industrial yield (due to below-average rainfall) and limited exports will be enough to compensate for the decrease in the volume of fruit processed.
According to CitrusBR, the stocked quantity of the commodity was 116.7 thousand tons at the end of 2023/24 crop (on June 30, 2024), being 37.7 % higher than that on the same period last year, but the third lowest in history (the series has started in 1988/89).
The 2024/25 crop-year for orange juice exports (from July/24 to June/25) has started in July and shipments, which had been moving down in 2023/24, continued to move at a slow pace. This scenario was already expected, since the supply is limited in Brazil, due to the confirmation of a smaller orange production in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro. At the same time, Brazilian imports of in natura orange and tangerine rose in July.
Orange juice exports
According to Comex Stat, Brazil shipped 53.4 thousand tons of orange juice in July, downing 38 % compared to the same month in 2023. The limited supply boosted quotations. As a result, the revenue totaled USD 198.9 million in July/24, for an increase of 9 % in relation to July/23.
NFC orange juice shipments amounted 164.2 thousand tons in July/24, and the revenue totaled USD 96.45 million, upping 3 % and 55 % against July/23. As for FCOJ exports, the total was 23.6 thousand tons (-59 %), and the revenue was USD 102.4 million (-15 % in one year).
In natura citrus fruits imports
In natura orange imports are at record volumes this year, boosted by the low domestic supply and high prices of national fruits. According to data from Comex Stat, from January to July, 34.8 thousand tons were imported, 87 % up in relation to the same period last year. Expenses amounted USD 24.7 million, 72 % more this year against the previous.
As for tangerines, the volume purchased by Brazil in the partial of 2024 totaled 14.5 thousand tons, 96 % more than in the period from January to July last year. Expenses are at USD 15.65 million (+89 %).
Domestic market
Quotations of citrus fruits surveyed by Cepea may continue to increase in August, sustained by expectations of a limited supply for all varieties. This scenario can be verified despite the orange season peak.
The orange harvesting is moving at a good pace in the citrus belt, but most part of the produce has been allocated to the juice industry. Factories continue with high prices to purchase the raw material, leading many producers that typically operate in the in natura market to allocate oranges for processing activities. Therefore, not even the low demand, due to mild temperatures, was able to press down quotations.
Due to the presence of greening (Huanglongbing) in São Paulo and to the recent imbalance between supply and demand for oranges, both producers and processors have been looking for options to increase the planted area in regions outside the citrus belt, without the phytosanitary risks in SP. There have been reports of new plantings in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais (out of Triângulo Mineiro) and Goiás, areas that are not typical citrus producers.
Investments are indeed not recommended depending on the region of São Paulo state, although major processing units are located there. Many areas have high incidence of greening, which hinders new plantings. According to data from Fundecitrus, 38 % of the trees in the citrus belt had symptoms of the disease in 2023, the sixth year in a row of greening increase. It is worth noting that new plants tend to be more vulnerable to the disease, increasing costs with prevention and chances of infection.
Therefore, plantings outside SP are an option. The land availability is higher, reducing costs, and there is the absence of greening and other diseases. Moreover, the industrial productivity can be higher than in SP, due to the warmer weather, which is positive for processing companies.
On the other hand, the fact that the areas are unknown for the citrus activity concerns players, since this scenario would demand adjustments in management and irrigation, which cannot be necessarily the same as those verified in SP.
Although these regions are warmer than SP (which can favor the productivity), it tends to affect the development of the trees. Additionally, costs with freight can be higher because of logistical issues.
It is worth noting that these investments in other regions are new and, therefore, they may not affect the orange supply in the short-term – it can be verified in roughly three years, when plants start producing.
Market
The supply of citrus fruits in the in natura market in São Paulo may be low in July. As for oranges, the lower availability has been verified since the middle of last year and it is also attributed to the high demand from the industry – it is worth noting that juice stocks at processing companies may finish the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) at low levels.
Players surveyed by Cepea say that even producers who typically sell to the in natura market are focusing on sending the product to the industry this season, since prices are more attractive and there are some advantages compared to the in natura market.
Premium fruit and vegetable ingredient supplier SVZ announced a strategic investment for its Belgian processing plant in Rijkevorsel. The latest in a series of global growth and sustainability-focused investments, SVZ seeks to expand the facility’s capacity to meet rising consumer demand for fruit and vegetable ingredients – while also boosting its sustainability credentials.
Growing capacity
Demand for naturally healthy, nutritious ingredients is growing as consumers become more aware of the impact what they consume has on their wellbeing. To fulfil this need, SVZ is investing in the capacity and processing technology required to process larger quantities of fruit and vegetable ingredients on-site without compromising on quality. A new pasteuriser in the plant, for example, will allow its Belgium facility to boost its puree production significantly.
This investment follows similar expansions across SVZ’s global processing plants, as the business meets this heightened demand for fruit and vegetable ingredients. In Poland, for example, the Tomaszów facility’s concentrate line has been bolstered, while SVZ’s US-based plant has not only boosted its puree line but is also investing in new automation technology to streamline the production process even further.
Sustainability first
SVZ’s investment in the Rijkevorsel plant also supports the business’ sustainability efforts – and progress towards its 100 % sustainable sourcing goal. The Belgium facility has seen a massive reduction in CO2 emissions over the last two years – and this new effort will aim to build on this by further decreasing heat consumption and exploring new ways of reusing expended energy within the facility. Indeed, the new pasteuriser will reduce emissions by 19 % – a crucial step in SVZ’s journey to low carbon production.
This new investment also contributes to SVZ’s broader mission of boosting the sustainability credentials of all global processing sites. SVZ’s Spain-based plant in Almonte, for example, has been recently fitted with solar panels, and a new cold storage facility has also been constructed to reduce reliance on third party-storage and transportation. Meanwhile, SVZ’s US processing plant has focused recent investment on water treatment, so water can be cleaned and reused.
Growing better, together
“SVZ has its sights set firmly on the future,” says Pieter Spanjers, CEO at SVZ. “This new investment increases our Rijkevorsel plant’s processing capacity and capabilities to ensure future growth. We are working on an agreement that will significantly increase our sourcing capacity, and we need a facility that allows us to efficiently absorb those heightened volumes, as well as serve our customers while keeping the highest standards of quality.
“We’re passionate about creating a healthier, greener planet and we want to do our part in ensuring it for all generations. This investment will enable us to continue our mission effectively and support our customers in creating tomorrow’s food and beverage products.”
The weather has been favouring the development of the 2022/23 orange crop. In general, frequent rainfall (since mid-October 2021) is helping the oranges to grow bigger and, thus, agents expect productivity to recover from the two previous seasons, when the volume harvested was low.
According to Cepea collaborators, the general scenario has been more favourable this year. Although the first blooming was late in some orchards (in mid-September in irrigated orchards and in October in dry land, after the return or rains), the number of flowers was considered positive, complemented by other blooming in the following months. Besides, the fruits set rate was high, favoured by rains followed by sunny days most of the time.
It is important to highlight that the damages caused by the long drought in the last two years (and frosts in some areas last Winter) were not completely offset, however, orange trees are currently more vigorous, leading agents to believe that productivity will be higher this season. Still, agents have distinct estimates about the harvest: some, who are more pessimistic, expect 300 million boxes to be harvested, while others, more optimistic, believe it will hit 350 million boxes. However, most of them expect something between 300 and 350 million boxes.
The only available estimates were released by the USDA in December, indicating the crop in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro to total 305 million boxes (15.5 % higher than that in 2021/22). Agents are waiting for Fundecitrus’s estimates, to be released in May.
It is worth to mention that, despite the production increase, orange supply is expected to be tight in the 2022/23 season, due to the high demand from processors to replenish juice stocks – which are forecast at 127 thousand tons by the end of the 2021/22 season, in June 2022, according to estimates from CitrusBR. Still according to CitrusBR, this volume will not be enough to meet the world demand until the new season steps up.
In that scenario, even if the volume produced is near the expected by the more optimistic, there should not be an orange surplus, which justifies the high prices bid by processors for 2022/23.
This scenario may also limit supply in the in natura market along the season, however, this would not ensure higher prices, since the purchase power of many consumers in Brazil is weak because of the current high inflation and the national economic scenario.
The Flavors & Fragrances (F&F) business unit of specialty chemicals company LANXESS is increasing prices worldwide for its entire portfolio of preservatives, benzoates, intermediates, aroma chemicals and multifunctionals with immediate effect. Customers will be contacted individually regarding the specifics of the measure as it applies to their products or regions.
The reasons for the adjustments are, in particular, unprecedented challenges with a significant impact on logistics and production. Fragile supply chains, dramatically increased raw material and energy costs – not least as a result of the war in Ukraine with oil and gas prices at record levels – bring significant consequences for the entire supply chain.
Offerings from F&F are primarily used to provide flavour, fragrance, shelf life and essential performance characteristics in a wide variety of consumer products, such as food and beverages.
Freshfel Europe published its 2020 Consumption Monitor, the Association’s analysis for fresh fruit and vegetables production, trade and consumption trends in the EU-28. This latest and highly anticipated edition of Freshfel Europe’s Consumption Monitor shows that in 2018 daily fresh fruit and vegetable consumption per capita has increased by 4 % from 2017 levels to 363.76 g per capita per day. While still below the WHO recommended minimum daily consumption of 400 g, this represents a 5.1 % increase compared to the previous five years (2013-2017) and halts previous consumption stagnation.
Freshfel Europe released its much-anticipated 2020 Consumption Monitor. Analysing fresh fruit and vegetable production, trade and consumption trends for the EU-28, Freshfel Europe’s 2020 Consumption Monitor examines the latest sector data from 2018. While aggregate consumption remained below the WHO recommended minimum daily consumption of 400 g, fresh produce consumption in the EU showed a strong positive increase of 4 % compared to 2017 levels. Representing a 5.1 % increase compared to the previous five years (2013-2017), this significant improvement can be attributed to a 9.5 % rise in fresh fruit consumption to 211.82 g per capita per day, which also compensated for a slight overall decrease in vegetable consumption to 151.94 g per capita per day.
This indication of a strong positive increase in EU consumption has coincided with increased sector efforts to raise awareness of the importance of fresh produce consumption over the last few years. Freshfel Europe General Delegate Philippe Binard commented on the publication emphasizing, “The findings of Freshfel Europe’s 2020 Consumption Monitor are highly encouraging and clearly illustrate that the sector’s heightened efforts to boost consumption above the WHO recommended minimum of 400 g per capita per day are being paid off. While we will continue to observe the stability of this recovery, we need to investigate this new discrepancy between fruit and vegetable consumption”. Mr Binard encouraged the sector to continue its efforts adding, “The fresh fruit and vegetable sector must capitalize on 2021 being the UN International Year of Fruits and Vegetables. Continued reinforcement of the important role of fresh produce in a balanced healthy and sustainable diet is essential to maintain and boost this latest positive consumption trend”. Freshfel Europe is active in consumption promotion activities at EU-level. Freshfel Europe’s ‘Follow me to be healthy with Europe’ EU promotion campaign is now in its third year, and alongside its longstanding online #FruitVeg4You campaign this year Freshfel Europe is conducting a specific campaign, #SpeakUp4FruitVeg, to encourage support for the sector by EU policy-makers and boost consumption to celebrate the International Year of Fruits and Vegetables 2021.
The 143-page Freshfel Europe 2020 Consumption Monitor consists of three parts:
- total gross supply of fruit and vegetables in the EU-28, including trends in production, exports and imports of fruit and vegetables (2013-2018),
- a comparative review of consumption trends across the EU-28 (2013-2018), and
- a review of the total net supply and trends exports and imports of fruit and vegetables in the EU-28 (2013-2018).
Freshfel Europe members receive the full report free of charge. The 2020 Consumption Monitor is also available for purchase for non-members at a rate of 1000 EUR. All information about the Freshfel Europe Consumption Monitor is available via the Freshfel website (www.freshfel.org).
The Brazilian exports of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent have been increasing for three months. Between July and September/19 (2019/20 crop), Brazil shipped 299.7 thousand tons of the product, 27 % more than that exported in the same period last year, according to Secex. Revenue, in turn, rose 17 %, in the same comparison, totaling 520.58 million USD.
The good exports performance is largely linked to the replenishing of European inventories (the European Union is the number one destination for the Brazilian orange juice) – last season, exports to the EU had decreased. Thus, this season, juice shipments to the EU have already reached 230.4 thousand tons, 47 % up compared to the volume exported between July and September last year.
To the United States, however, the Brazilian exports of FCOJ Equivalent have been decreasing (17% between July and September), totaling only 37.1 thousand tons since the beginning of the season, in July/19. This scenario reflects the supply offset in Florida in the 2018/19 crop as well as estimates for a positive scenario in 2019/20.
For the coming months, Brazilian juice exports are expected to keep on the rise, due to the higher orange production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) and the needs of European bottling plants to replenish inventories. To the USA, in turn, the increase in the demand for the Brazilian orange juice will depend on the orange production in Florida (although greening has been controlled in the American state, local groves still suffer the effects of the disease).
BRAZILIAN MARKET IN OCTOBER – Despite the higher demand for oranges in the Brazilian in natura market in the first fortnight of October, the supply of high quality fruits was low (oranges are wilted and small). Thus, prices for higher quality oranges increased in the Brazilian market in the first half of the month. Between October 1 and 15, pear orange prices averaged 21.38 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 12.6 % up compared to that in the first fortnight of September.
As regards tahiti lime, quotes increased in São Paulo in the same period – some deals reached 100.00 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested. The scenario was linked to lower supply, since the fruits still on tree had not reached the ideal size and maturation stage to be harvested.
Between October 1 and 15, tahiti lime prices averaged 79.94 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 68.3 % up compared to that in the first half of September. On the other hand, rains in the first fortnight of October may have favored fruits growth on tree, raising expectations for an increase in supply still in October.
Tate & Lyle, a leading global provider of food and beverage ingredients and solutions, announces that effective October 1, 2019 or as contracts allow, the Food & Beverage Solutions business in North America will implement price increases of up to 12 % on specialty food starches, fibres, specialty and high intensity sweeteners, and stabilization and functional systems.
These adjustments are required following increase in costs to produce the affected products.
Major processing companies in São Paulo say that, in July, they are likely to increase the receiving of mid-season fruits from contracts of the 2019/20 season. According to players surveyed by Cepea, pear orange has been received in June, but in small volumes, because the quality was not good for juice production.
Besides, the volume of early varieties continued high in late June, which increased acquisitions of the industry – some companies reported that processing activities increased at the end of the month. As a result, the supply of these fruits may continue high, even with the availability of mid-season fruits increasing gradually.
As for trades in the spot market, only two of major processors were purchasing in late June, with values between 16.00 and 18.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered – the value may change during the season. For small processing companies, in turn, quotes reach up to 20.00 BRL per box, depending on the company and the quality.
CONTRACTS – As for mid and long term trades (two or more crops), players surveyed by Cepea say that the demand is high until December/18, when contracts were established between 20.00 and 22.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – Players expect that, in July, as processing companies are receiving oranges, the volume in the in natura market may reduce, preventing prices to decrease sharply. Agents say that the demand for pear orange increased in late June because the supply of early varieties reduced in the in natura market.
Concerning ponkan tangerine, the crop from São Paulo, which started in February in some areas of the state, is about to end. According to agents consulted by Cepea, only a few orchards still had fruits to be harvested at the end of the month.
