Pear orange prices in the in natura market hit a new record in February, considering Cepea historical series, which has started in October 1994 – values were deflated by IGP-DI December/23. Quotations are likely to continue at high levels in March, since the volume of early varieties in the spot market in São Paulo is still small.
In February, pear orange prices averaged BRL 87.40 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 9.29 % up compared to January/24 and an increase of 83 % in relation to February/23 (in this case, in nominal terms). Price rises are linked to the lower supply in this offseason period, while the supply of late and early varieties is also limited. It is worth noting that the firm industrial demand reduced even more the fruit availability in the domestic market during the entire season.
TAHITI LIME – Prices have started February in a downward trend; however, they rose during the month, leading to an increase of the monthly average. Although it is the peak season, frequent rains limited the harvest and, consequently, the supply. Moreover, weather conditions have been favoring the fruit quality.
In this scenario, the tahiti lime price average in the in natura market was BRL 20.11 per 27-kg box (harvested) in February, moving up 46.36 % and 104 % in relation to January/24 and February/23, respectively, in nominal terms.
Values are likely to remain firm in March because of the lower volume that will be harvested. Moreover, exports may increase, especially due to the proximity of Easter, which can influence to flow the product.
Pear orange prices have been moving up since the beginning of the 2023/24 season in the in natura market. In January, values hit the record of Cepea series, which has started in 1994. In the first month of 2024, the price average was BRL 78.89 per 40.8-kilo box, moving up 16% compared to December/23 and 90% in relation to January/23, in real terms (values were deflated by IGP-DI Dec/23). Up until January/24, the highest value in real terms had been BRL 74.92/box, in November 1994.
This scenario of high prices is related to the limited supply. The production in the current crop is on average; however, low orange juice stocks increase the need to buy the raw material, reducing the orange supply in the in natura market.
As for the demand, players surveyed by Cepea say that it is firm, since temperatures are high, favoring the consumption of the fruit.
The pear orange supply is expected to continue limited in February, which is still considered offseason.
Industry
Prices for pear orange and late varieties for the industry had hit a real record in November. Since then, they have been renewing the record level of Cepea series, which has started in 1994. However, values are now moving down, considering the closing of new trades.
The price average for pear orange and late varieties for the industry was BRL 57.68 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered, in January, increasing 10% against the month before and 76% in relation to January 2023, in real terms.
Tahiti lime
Prices finished January at low levels, due to the peak season. The price average in January 2024 was BRL 13.56 per 27-kg box (harvested), for a decrease of 28% compared to the last month of 2023.
The tahiti lime supply is expected to continue high in February, due to rains in January, which can favor both the fruit development and the quality.
2023 was a very positive year for the citrus activity in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro concerning prices received by citrus farmers. Orange values were at firm levels during the year in both the in natura market and at the industry – in this segment, quotations hit record levels in real terms, allowing a year of good profitability.
This scenario is explained by the lower supply compared to the demand, despite the fact that the 2023/24 production is on average. Orange juice stocks started the season at low levels, and there was the need to purchase the raw material in order to prevent a significant decrease of stocks at the end of the current season. Moreover, the orange juice demand is firm in the international market, especially from the US, country that has been registering limited production for years due to greening (HLB) impacts.
In November, prices of orange to the industry hit real records, considering Cepea historical series, which has started in October 1994 (monthly values were deflated by IGP-DI October/23).
Orange production
The 2023/24 orange season in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro may decrease 2.2 % compared to the previous, according to Fundecitrus. The total volume is forecast at 307.22 million boxes, 0.7 % smaller in relation to the first estimate, released in May.
The decrease is related to above-average rains, which increased the incidence of blossom-end rot, to the negative biennial cycle (except in the north), the lower volume of flowers verified in some late variety trees and to the intensity of greening.
It is important to mention that this volume is below the need of the industry to meet the international demand and increase juice stocks, which are very low. According to CitrusBR, the volume in stocks hit the lowest level in 12 years, totaling only 84.745 thousand tons of volume equivalent to concentrate juice by the end of the 2022/23 season (June/23), downing 40.7 % compared to the previous crop. These critical numbers arise serious concerns about the global orange juice supply.
The combination of low orange supply and firm demand over the last weeks, due to high temperatures, has been keeping prices on the rise in both the in natura market and at the industry.
Orange prices have been hitting records in both segments – as for fruits to the industry, the current average is a real record, considering the Cepea series, which started in October 1994 (monthly prices were deflated by IGP-DI October). Even with an average crop, orange juice stocks at processing companies are low, resulting in a fruit supply that is lower than the demand.
In November, pear oranges are traded in the in natura market at BRL 58.90 per box, 45.9 % higher than in November last year (in real terms) and the highest of Cepea series, in nominal terms. In real terms, the current average is the highest since March 2019 and the fourth biggest considering the months of November.
Prices for pear orange and late varieties sent to the industry, in turn, have averaged BRL 49.04 per box in November, soaring 60.3 % compared to November/22, in real terms, and the highest of the series.
The supply in Brazil is expected to be lower than the demand at least until the end of the crop. The following season can still register a limited availability, considering that current OJ stocks may not recover at the end of the 2023/24 crop. In case the 2024/25 season continues on the average, stocks may present a new decrease. Therefore, if the crop is below-average, the situation can be critical.
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