The first 90 days of the 2025/26 season confirm a scenario of adjustments in the exporting market of orange juice and citrus byproducts in Brazil. In spite of the tax exemption on the Brazilian orange juice in the United States, the performance of exports from July to September 2025 was below that verified in the same period last season.

According to data from Comex Stat, the total volume of juice exported in the partial of the 2025/26 crop to all destinations totaled 199.7 thousand tons (volume equivalent to concentrate juice – 66º Brix), for a decrease of 4 % compared to the same period in the year before, while the revenue dropped 15 %, to USD 751.3 million. The income decrease is attributed to low international prices because of high global supply.

For the first time in several years, shipments to the United States and to the European Union were equal, with roughly 48 % of participation each (in volume). The 13 % increase of sales to the US highlights the dependence of the country on the Brazilian juice. Exports to the European Union, in turn, dropped 8 %, influenced by the demand decrease after high prices and quality problems verified in the crop before. The result was a balance between these two important destinations.

Besides the international scenario, the low volume of domestic inventories in this beginning of the season, along with the small supply of the fruit, also influenced the decrease of shipments.

From this month on, with the intensification of the harvesting in Brazil and the increase of processing activities at the industry, shipments are likely to move up, specially to the European Union, which may replenish inventories.

• New Study by the American Journal of Medicine finds that drinking fruit-type drinks is associated with a 15 % higher risk of type 2 diabetes
• Findings also highlight no association between drinking 100 % fruit juice and the risk of type 2 diabetes
• Eating whole fruit – containing dietary fibre and other beneficial compounds –has a protective effect against type 2 diabetes
• Dr Carrie Ruxton urges families to consume 100 % fruit juices and whole fruits at breakfast
• Families urged to rethink their breakfast choices as new research highlights the importance of 100 % fruit juice and whole fruit and warns against added sugar drinks.

A new meta-analysis of 14 cohort studies – published by the American Journal of Medicine – has revealed a significant link between the consumption of fruit drinks is associated with a 15 % higher risk of type 2 diabetes. This includes juice beverages with added sugars, sweeteners, or water.

In contrast, there is no statistically significant association between drinking 100 % fruit juice and the risk of type 2 diabetes – whilst eating whole fruit, which contains dietary fibre and other beneficial compounds, has a protective effect against type 2 diabetes.

The researchers suggest that the increased risk linked to fruit-type drinks may be due to:

• Lack of fibre: Fruit drinks lack the dietary fibre found in whole fruit and pulp, which helps regulate blood sugar levels. All 100 % juices contain pectin, a type of soluble fibre, while some types have the pulp added back.
• Added sugars: The presence of added sugars in fruit drinks contributes to higher calorie intakes and can lead to blood sugar spikes.

Type 2 diabetes is a growing global health issue, with lifestyle factors such as diet playing a critical role in prevention – with latest data from Diabetes UK showing almost 4.6 million people in the UK currently live with diabetes, and almost 1.3 million people could be living with type 2 diabetes who are not yet diagnosed.

Dr Carrie Ruxton, award-winning nutritionist at the Fruit Juice Science Centre, explains: “This study highlights the importance of choosing 100 % fruit juice over sweetened or diluted alternatives. While whole fruit remains the gold standard for health benefits, 100 % fruit juice can be a convenient and nutritious option for families, providing essential vitamins and minerals without the added sugars found in fruit drinks, such as Sunny D and Capri-Sun.

“These new findings highlight the importance of making informed dietary choices, particularly for families with children. I urge parents to consider:

• Choosing 100 % fruit juice: When selecting fruit juice, it is important to look for labels that specify “fruit juice,” which means the product contains only the natural juice extracted from fruit, with no added sugars, sweeteners, or water. Unlike fruit drinks, 100% fruit juice retains the vitamins, minerals, and antioxidants naturally found in fruit, such as vitamin C and potassium, which support immune function and heart health – great for breakfast time to kickstart the day.
• Prioritising whole fruit: Whole fruit should always be the first choice when it comes to consumption. Whole fruits, such as apples, oranges, and berries, are rich in dietary fibre, which helps regulate blood sugar levels, supports digestive health, and promotes a feeling of fullness. In addition to fibre, whole fruits contain a wide range of beneficial compounds, including phytochemicals and antioxidants.
• Limiting fruit drinks: These often contain added sugars, sweeteners, or extra water and should be consumed sparingly as they can contribute to higher calorie intakes and blood sugar spikes.

“Under both EU and UK law, any product labelled as ‘fruit juice’ is 100 % pure fruit juice. That means it cannot contain added sugars, sweeteners, preservatives, colours or flavourings – only the naturally occurring sugars found in whole fruit.”

Louis Dreyfus Company B.V. announced the successful development of a new product made from not-from-concentrate (NFC) orange juice, presenting a 30 % reduction in natural sugar content and more than triple dietary fiber content, while preserving original taste (Brix value) and vitamin C level.

Further to a five-year research effort by the Group’s in-house R&D laboratory team of food engineers, chemists and biotechnologists in Bebedouro, São Paulo State, Brazil, LDC has developed a successful process to reduce sugar content in orange juice, in line with the company’s commitment to offer nutritious, high-quality juices that address growing consumer demand.

“Complementing our extensive portfolio of juices and ingredients from Brazilian-grown citrus fruits, this new product represents another positive step in LDC’s strategy to diversify revenue through value-added products, including specialty ingredients and products like this one,” said Juan José Blanchard, LDC’s Global Head of Juice. “Leveraging our global network and partnerships, LDC aims to bring this new product to the global market in collaboration with leading beverage industry players, contributing to the advent of healthy, nutritious juice product options that respond to consumer expectations, while continuing to invest in R&D activities targeting further reductions in sugar content.”

Although commercial roll-out is initially focused on Asia Pacific, with an initial launch planned in early 2023 in China, the new product is available to industry customers worldwide, including in Europe, North America and South America, where the Group sees growing consumer demand for healthy, nutritious, great-tasting diet options.

Orange prices were weakened in the Brazilian market in May, due to both the colder weather and high supply at the orchards from SP.

As crushing increases in Brazil, citrus farmers tend to reduce orange supply to the in natura market, aiming to prioritize the trades already closed with processing plants – which may prevent prices from dropping more sharply – many farmers allocated large volumes of early oranges to the in natura segment in May, waiting for crushing to start at the industry.

Between May 2 and 31, pear orange quotes averaged 21.17 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 33.4 % down compared to that between April 1 and 30.

Concerning tahiti lime, besides the higher supply, quotes were pressed down by the low demand, from both the Brazilian and the international markets. In May, tahiti lime quotes averaged 15.21 BRL per 27-kilo box, on tree, 36.8 % down compared to that in April.

The larger crop estimated by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) for the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in 2019/20, at 388.89 million boxes of 40.8 kilos (36 % larger than that from the 2018/19 season), should offset the inventories at processing plants from São Paulo in June 2020, according to Cepea estimates. However, this is not a high supply scenario, since the volume produced in 2018/19 was small and processing plants need to purchase raw material in order to replenish the low inventories forecast for June 2019.

According to CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) estimates from Feb/19, the 2018/19 season should end, in June/19, with the smallest output since June/11, smaller than the strategic amount (of 250 thousand tons). Thus, if these estimates are confirmed, industrial demand may be firm in 2019/20, offsetting higher orange supply – this context has practically been confirmed, considering the anticipated trades closed in late 2018 at firm prices.

According to Cepea’s first estimates, by the end of the 2019/20 season (in June/20), juice inventories may surpass 300 thousand tons (Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice – FCOJ – Equivalent). For this calculation, Cepea considered the initial inventories forecast by CitrusBR (200.6 thousand tons), 300 million boxes crushed (88 million boxes allocated to the in natura market), average yield at 260 boxes for each ton of orange juice and sales at 1.05 million tons.

Thus, although 300 thousand tons are higher than the strategic level stablished, it is important to consider that production has oscillated in the citrus belt from year to year, with periods of larger volumes followed by years of low production. In this scenario, taking into consideration that the 2020/21 crop may be smaller, inventories should be kept stable at processing plants, aiming to avoid major decreases in the global supply.

PRICES PAID TO CITRUS GROWERS IN 2019/20 – Despite the larger volume forecast for the citrus belt, growers’ revenue should be positive in 2019/20, due to high productivity (which may reduce the cost per unit). Besides, much of the output has been purchased at the same price levels from 2018/19, between 20 and 22 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at processing plants (counting or not on a participation additional in the juice selling price in the international market).