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On the occasion of its Annual General Meeting in Fruit Logistica, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. According to the forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, apple production is set to grow by 1,1 % compared to 2023, while the pear crop is expected to decrease by 2,3 %.

On Friday 9 February 2024, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) held its Annual General Meeting. During the Meeting, which took place during Fruit Logistica in Berlin, WAPA presented the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. This report has been compiled with the support of CAFI (Argentina), APAL (Australia), ABPM (Brazil), Fruits from Chile (Chile), New Zealand Apples and Pears (New Zealand), and Hortgro (South Africa), and therefore provides consolidated data from the six leading Southern Hemisphere countries.

Regarding apples, the Southern Hemisphere 2024 crop forecast suggests an increase of 1,1 % to a total of 4.775.530 t compared to last year (4.725.574 t). South Africa is expected to maintain its lead as the largest producer with 1.396.659 t (+ 4,6 from 2023), followed by Brazil (1.100.000 t, in line with 2023), Chile (912.000 t, – 8,4 %), New Zealand (557.871 t, + 14,7 %), Argentina (501.000 t, – 4,8 %), and Australia (308.000 t, + 5,8 %). With 1.578.148 t, Gala is by far the most popular variety, with its volume remaining in line with 2023 although 11,4 % below the average of the previous 3 years. Exports are also expected to increase (+ 8 %) to reach 1.551.696 t. South Africa (+ 5,1 %) and Chile (+ 5,3 %), the two largest exporters, are both expected to increase their export volumes, reaching 572.280 t and 493.000 t respectively. Exports from New Zealand should grow by 22,2 % (381.729 t in total), while lower export quantities are forecasted for Argentina (70.000 t, – 4,1 %) and Brazil (32.000 t, – 10,6 %).

Regarding pears, the Southern Hemisphere growers predict a slight decline in the crop (- 2,3 %), bringing the total to 1.465.800 t. Argentina (614.000 t), Chile (203.000 t), and Australia (72.000 t) are expected to decrease their production by 6 %, 5,4 %, and 2,7 % respectively. South Africa’s production levels are forecasted to increase to 567.334 t (+ 3,4 % from 2023), as well as New Zealand’s (+ 8,4 %, with 9.066 t in total). Packham’s Triumph remains the most produced variety (508.000 t, with a slight 1,3 % decrease compared to 2023), followed by Williams’ bon chrétien pears (300.082 t). Export figures are expected to be in line with 2023 with a total of 654.323 t.

European apple stocks stood at 3.851.098 t as of 1 January 2024, which is 4,6 % lower than in 2023. Similarly, the total of 582.587 t for European pears is 4,4 % below the figures from the previous year. On the other hand, stock figures are higher in the USA, both for apples (2.138.376 t, + 33,6 %) and for pears (169.474 t, + 14,9 %).

During the Annual General Meeting, Jeff Correa (Pear Bureau Northwest – USA) was elected as the President of the association, taking over from Dominik Woźniak (Society for Promotion of Dwarf Fruit Orchards / Rajpol – Poland). Nick Dicey (Hortgro – South Africa) will join him as the Vice-President. Regarding his new role, Mr Correa commented: “I’m honoured that I have been elected as the next Chairman of WAPA. I look forward to working with the WAPA staff and membership to advance the data sharing, market insights, and explore new avenues that will benefit the organization and its members”. Finally, the Annual General Meeting confirmed that the next edition of Prognosfruit will be held in Budapest, Hungary, on 7-9 August 2024.

The World Citrus Organisation (WCO) has released its annual Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast for the upcoming citrus season (2023-24). The Forecast was released on the occasion of the Global Citrus Outlook conference organized by WCO. The forecast is based on data from Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, and the United States. This year, the Forecast shows that citrus production is projected to reach 28,976,001 T, which represents a 12.2 % increase compared to the previous peak low season. The 2023/2024 forecast is 1.48 % higher than the average of the last 4 seasons.

WCO, the World Citrus Organisation, released its annual Northern Hemisphere citrus forecast for the upcoming season (2023-24). The preliminary Forecast is based on data from industry associations from the Mediterranean region and the United States. Total citrus exports are expected to follow a similar trend at 9,483,770 T, up by 11.4 % from last season and 4.5 % from the last four seasons’ average.

Philippe Binard, WCO Secretary General, summarised the outcome of the Forecast. “The market insights we received indicate a recovery from the low point of last season. The growth is mainly influenced by growth in Turkey and Egypt while other countries are stable or only recorded marginal gains”. Eric Imbert from CIRAD added, “While this year’s forecast shows a recovery with variable conditions across the producing countries and citrus categories, many parameters have to be taken into account for the market analysis”. He added: “Climatic issues, such as late frost, drought, heat waves, or new pests and diseases influenced the quality, colouring, or harvest date for the production. The market will still be impacted by geopolitical instability while consumer demand is under pressure due to limitation of purchasing power and inflation”.

Looking at the country-specific figures for the largest producers in the EU, Spain’s citrus production at 5.9 MT is up by 2 % to previous seasons, with stable soft citrus compared to last year, fewer oranges (- 6 %) and more lemons. Italy is up by 6 % at 2.6 MT, with more oranges (+ 20 %) and less soft citrus and lemons (- 10 % each), while Greece is down by 7 % to 1.1 MT. In the other Mediterranean countries, Turkey is now the market leader with a first production estimate of 6.5 MT (+ 45 %), with strong growth across all categories. The Turkish production forecast could even exceed 7 MT. This results from the increased acreage and productivity, alternance, and favourable climatic conditions. Egypt at 5.4 MT is up by 10 % from the previous season and 15 % from the average of the last 4 years. The main category is oranges with 3,7 MT (+ 5 %) while soft citrus’s double-digit growth should almost reach 1.3 MT. Morocco’s production is expected to partially recover, bouncing back to just over 2 MT, with 1 MT of soft citrus (+ 11 %) and 930,000 T of oranges. Israel’s production is estimated at 365,000 T, but the recent conflict and attack on the country is a source of multiple challenges regarding supply, logistics, and human resources for harvesting and packing. The production in the United States will be up by 1 % at 4.5 MT with more oranges ( + 10 % at 2.4 MT) but less soft citrus (- 2 % at 856,000 T) and even less so for lemon ( – 12 % at 889,000 T).

Philippe Binard added: “WCO is also setting some trends for the expected utilization of citrus for the upcoming season. The global citrus exports will be up by 11 % to reach 9,4 MT, while processing will increase by 8 % to reach 4,7 MT, leaving 14.7 MT for domestic sales (+ 14 %.). Next April, the WCO will release the 2024 production and export forecast for the Southern Hemisphere.

Following the intense weather events that affected several countries in the Southern Hemisphere, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released an update of the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast that was originally presented during the Association’s latest Annual General Meeting in Berlin’s Fruit Logistica. According to the revised forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, apple production is set to increase by 2,38 % to reach 4.974.990 T, while pear production is expected to decrease by 1,25 % to a total of 1.319.601 T.

During its latest Annual General Meeting in Berlin’s Fruit Logistica, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) presented the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. The yearly report is compiled with the support of ASOEX (Chile), CAFI (Argentina), ABPM (Brazil), Hortgro (South Africa), APAL (Australia), and New Zealand Apples and Pears, and therefore provides consolidated data from the six leading Southern Hemisphere countries. The initial forecast for the 2023 season, which estimated a 6 % and 1 % increase for apples and pears respectively compared to 2022, has been revised in light of the intense weather events that affected several countries in the Southern Hemisphere. New Zealand’s and South Africa’s apple crop forecasts have been revised downward by 77.902 T and 77.276 T respectively. New Zealand’s pear crop estimates have also been slightly decreased compared to the initial forecast (- 323 T), as well as South Africa’s (- 28.726 T).

Regarding apples, the updated Southern Hemisphere 2023 crop forecast suggests an increase of 2 % to a total of 4.974.990 T compared to last year (4.859.026 T). A smaller apple crop is expected in New Zealand, (457.675 T, – 9 % compared to 2022), Australia (- 8 % compared to 2022, to a total of 290.000 T), and South Africa (1.142.880 T, down 5 %). Chile remains the largest producer (1.409.633 T, in line with 2022), now followed by Brazil (1.150.000 T, + 12 %). Argentina’s apple production should reach 525.000 T (+ 24 % compared to 2022). Exports are also expected to decrease (- 3 % compared to 2022) to a total of 1.556.668 T. Chile remains the largest exporter (604.000 T) followed by South Africa (509.158 T), whose exports are forecasted to decrease by 10 %. Exports from New Zealand (286.823 T) and Australia (2.687 T) are also expected to decrease by 15 % and 1 % respectively. Brazil’s (70.000 T) and Argentina’s exports (84.000 T), on the other hand, are expected to recover from the low 2022 figures. With 1.843.130 T, Gala remains by far the most popular variety, with its production expected to increase by 4 % compared to 2022.

Regarding pears, the Southern Hemisphere growers predict a slight decrease of the crop (- 1 %), which will drop to 1.319.601 T. While Argentina and Chile are expected to increase their production by 4 % and 2 % respectively, South Africa’s (- 6 %), Australia’s (- 16 %), and New Zealand’s (- 19 %) production levels are all expected to decrease. Argentina remains the largest producer in the Southern Hemisphere (592.000 T), followed by South Africa (477.419 T), Chile (170.000 T), Australia (72.016 T), and New Zealand (8.120 T). Packham’s Triumph remains the most produced variety (481.049 T, in line with 2022), followed by Williams’ bon chrétien pears (332.447 T). Export figures are expected to be stable (670.054 T), with a 12 % increase in Argentinian exports and a 13 % decrease in exports from South Africa.

WAPA: Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast revised downward following severe weather events
(Photo: WAPA)

On the occasion of its Annual General Meeting, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. According to the forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, apple and pear production is estimated to decrease by 7 % and 6 % respectively in 2022 compared to the previous year.

On 24 February 2022, on the occasion of its Annual General Meeting, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released its 2022 apple and pear crop estimate for the Southern Hemisphere. This report has been compiled with the support of ASOEX (Chile), CAFI (Argentina), ABPM (Brazil), Hortgro (South Africa), APAL (Australia) and New Zealand Apples and Pears, and therefore provides consolidated data from the six leading Southern Hemisphere countries. WAPA’s Secretary General Philippe Binard commented “This forecast is released for the global apples and pears sector on the background of many uncertainties, including the geopolitical tension, the increasing costs for production, the impact of the rise of logistic costs and limited container availability, labour shortage and the increasing concerns of declining consumption due to economic situation”

The 2022 Southern Hemisphere apple crop forecast suggests a decrease of 7 % to a total of 4.864.000 T compared to last year (5.217.000 T), mainly due to the 30 % decrease in Brazil and the 11 % decrease in Argentina. Australia and Chile are also forecasted to decrease their production by 3 % and 2 % respectively. New Zealand and South Africa are the only countries where apple production is expected to increase (15 % and 4 % respectively). Chile is expected to remain the largest Southern Hemisphere apple producer in 2022 (1.455.000 T), followed by South Africa (1.163.000 T), Brazil (900.000 T), New Zealand (590.000 T), Argentina (445.000 T), and Australia (311.000 T). With 1.706.000 T, Gala remains by far the most popular variety, although its production is expected to decrease by 7 % compared to 2021. Despite the decrease in production, exports are forecasted to remain stable overall at 1.744.762 T, with the larger volumes exported by New Zealand (+ 17 %) and South Africa (+ 6 %) compensating for the 65 % decrease in Brazilian apple exports.

Regarding pears, the Southern Hemisphere growers predict a 6 % decrease of the crop, which will drop to 1.229.000 T. This is mainly due to the 13 % decrease in Argentina, the 11 % decrease in Chile, and the 6 % decrease in Australia. New Zealand and South Africa, on the other hand, are expected to increase their production by 31 % and 5 % respectively. Argentina remains the largest producer in the Southern Hemisphere (522.000 T), followed by South Africa (492.000 T), Chile (122.000 T), Australia (81.000 T), and New Zealand (11.000 T). Packham’s Triumph remains the most produced variety (444.000 T, despite a 4 % decrease compared to 2021), followed by Williams’ bon chrétien pears (306.000 T). Export figures are expected to decrease by 6 % compared to 2021 to a total of 641.207 T, mainly because of a 14 % decrease in Argentinian exports.

In the Northern Hemisphere, the stocks in the USA stood at 1.478.180 T (- 1 % compared to last year) for apples and 149.553 T for pears (+ 32 % compared to last year) on the 1st of February. In Europe, apple and pear stocks stood at 3.606.980 T (7 % up from last year) and 408.340 T (30 % down from last year). Philippe Binard commented: “Season developments clearly demonstrate the impact of logistics and costs on international trade also for Northern Hemisphere suppliers, with the USA concentrating sales for apples and pears in North America. European markets continue to be affected by the Belarus embargo, while the recent developments in Ukraine will also impact sales to all the destinations in Eastern Europe, including Russia, for all global apples and pears suppliers. It is important to continue building efforts to stimulate the consumption”. WAPA’s Annual General Meeting also hosted a discussion on CO2 emissions and how apple and pear production can reach carbon neutrality or even have a positive contribution to the environment. WAPA will continue to cooperate on this topic with its members in a dedicated working group based on the input and expertise of the University of Bolzano (Italy).

Finally, the Annual General Meeting also confirmed that Prognosfruit will return as an in-person event in the first half of August 2022 in Belgrade (Serbia). The exact date of the event will soon be announced.

First Southern Hemisphere Fruit Trade Congress highlighted the key priorities of the Southern Hemisphere Association of Fresh Fruit Exporters (SHAFFE) in its strategy for 2021 – 2023 and served as a platform for announcing a new cooperation agreement with the Chinese fruit importing industry. The first ever online event also highlighted the key challenges and opportunities for the region and defined that building on individual key strengths is the way forward for 2021 and beyond.

The Southern Hemisphere Fruit Trade Congress organized by the Southern Hemisphere Association of Fresh Fruit Exporters, with the defining theme “Keeping the World supplied” has taken place virtually on the 25th of March 2021. With 615 registered participants from all-over the world and two run-ups for convenient dial-in from different time zones, the first annual Congress has reached an exceptional outreach.

Starting with a keynote speech by FAO Deputy Director General Ms Beth Bechdol, highlighting the importance of the support of the fresh fruit industry to the United Nations campaign “International Year of Fruit and Vegetables 2021, at the heart of the conference program have been the outlook review provided by current SHAFFE president Charif Christian Carvajal from the Chilean Fruit Exporters Association (ASOEX). Mr. Carvajal highlighted the key areas of activity of SHAFFE, including strengthening the organizations resource availability, stimulating formation of fresh produce industry professionals’, modernizing information systems, and collaborating with like – minded trade organizations and international public entities to create common grounds of dialogue and exchange. The outlook was accompanied by an extensive outlook panel discussion moderated by SHAFFE Secretary General Nelli Hajdu together with 8 thought leaders from the various Southern Hemisphere countries.

The SHAFFE congress was also the scene for the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding with the China Chamber of Commerce of Foodstuffs, Native Produce and Animal By-Products (CCCFNA). The Chinese market has become an important outlet for Southern Hemisphere Traders. The market has been growing 90 % over the past five years to 2.5 billion USD market.

The Southern Hemisphere looks back on a very good season 2020 despite Covid-19 constraints challenging producing and trading operations. With a decrease of 8 % in volume but a continued increase of value of 5 % in 2020 (9.8 million T, 14.6 billion USD), Southern Hemisphere traders have secured continuous fruit supply in 2020. The outlook was followed with a panel discussion with thought leaders from the 8 Southern Hemisphere SHAFFE member countries, highlighting the state of play of their respective industries, capitalizing their key individual strengths from investment into organic to emphasis on varietal diversification and/or to branding the desire of consumers for food safety.

The congress additionally showcased contributions from SHAFFE partner organisations including the the China Chamber of Commerce of Foodstuffs, Native Produce and Animal By-Products (CCCFNA), Freshfel, the European Fresh Produce Association, British Summer Fruits,the US Produce Marketing Association , Canadian Produce Marketing Association and the International Federation for Produce Standards), hence wrapping up a complexity of tasks and challenges for the interconnected global fruit sector.

The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) held its Annual General Meeting on the last day of the Fruit Logistica fair in Berlin (Germany), 7 February 2020. Representatives of the key global apple and pear producing and exporting countries met to discuss the Southern Hemisphere production forecast, the final update of the Northern Hemisphere production forecast that was released in August 2019, and the season developments.

WAPA discussed and released the consolidated crop forecasts for the forthcoming southern hemisphere apple and pear seasons (see SH Statistics aggregate in email). Collected from industry associations in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa, the forecast showed that the 2020 apple and pear Southern Hemisphere crops are expected to reach 5.003.000 T and 1.276.000 T, respectively. For apples, this represents a small decrease of 1 % compared to the 2019 crop. Export is expected to remain stable at 1.725 million T. The pear crop is expected to decrease by 3 % compared to 2019. Export is expected to decrease by 2 % to 691.660 T. The Northern Hemisphere crop and stocks data were also updated. Overall, the forecasts continue to demonstrate the huge variation in crop sizes due to the consequences of climatic havocs impacting the production. Furthermore, the Eurasian apple growing developments and global reporting initiatives were discussed.

Other topics on the agenda were marketing, promotion and consumption trends, and research and innovation activities among the members. The discussion underlines the efforts of the sector to cope with the new market requirements and expectations to reduce pesticide dependency. It also focussed on the development of new sustainable strategies regarding water usage, biodiversity, carbon emissions, adapting packaging to the plastic debate and continuing to promote the health benefits of apples and pears to consumers around the world.

According to tradition, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) held its Annual General Meeting on the last day of the Fruit Logistica fair in Berlin, 8 February 2019. Representatives of the key global apple and pear producing and exporting countries met to discuss the Southern Hemisphere production forecast, the final update of the Northern Hemisphere production forecast that was released in August 2018, and the season developments.

WAPA discussed and released the consolidated crop forecasts for the forthcoming southern hemisphere apple and pear seasons (see tables in annex). Collected from industry associations in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa, the forecast showed that the 2019 apple and pear Southern Hemisphere crops are expected to reach 5.261.000 T and 1.327.000 T, respectively. For apples, this represents an increase of 2 % compared to the 2018 crop. Export is expected to remain stable at 1.738 million T. The pear crop is expected to increase by 2 % compared to 2018. Export is expected to remain stable at 712.154 T.

Other topics on the agenda were marketing, promotion and consumption trends, research and innovation activities among the members, and global initiatives to preserve the biodiversity of the many apple varieties.

Finally, WAPA elected a new president, Nicholas Dicey from HortGro, South Africa, formerly WAPA’s vice-president. As new vice-president, Dominik Wozniak from the Polish Society for Promotion of Dwarf Fruit Orchards was elected. The WAPA secretariat and members are looking forward to continuing the good trends in the coming years with its new presidency and thanked Todd Fryhover from Washington Apple Commission for his time and efforts as WAPA’s vice- president and president over the last four years.