Total orange production for the 2023-2024 crop season ended at 307.22 million boxes1
The 2023-2024 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors from FEA- RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – concluded with 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows:
- 58.09 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
- 18.51 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada early-season varieties;
- 97.62 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
- 105.20 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
- 27.80 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.
Of the total, about 27.82 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
The season´s production was 2.22% lower in comparison to the previous crop, which reached 314.21 million boxes and was 0.69% below the initial forecast made in May 2023 …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
Orange production for the 2022-2023 crop season totaled 314.21 million boxes1
The 2022-2023 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 10, 2023 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is 314.21 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows …
Please download the complete crop update under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
Updated orange production1 forecast totals 316.23 million boxes
The third 2022-2023 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on February 10, 2023 by Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 amounted to 316.23 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, a volume 0.7 % higher than the projected scenario in December 2022. This increase is mainly due to the production of the Pera Rio variety, whose harvest is close to the end with higher-than-expected yield. The heavy rains that occurred in the last two months could have further expanded the crop yield, since they contributed to the growth and weight increase of oranges. However, the highly frequent and intense rainfall (many in the form of storms), also significantly intensified the premature fruit drop, offsetting the positive effect of weight gain. This was especially true for the late varieties, as most of these cultivars had not been harvested when the heavy rains started …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
Orange1 production forecast update totals 267.87 million boxes
The first 2021-2022 orange crop forecast update for the Sao Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is 267.87 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, differently from the 294.17 million estimated in May this year. The reduction of 26.30 million in relation to the initial expectation corresponds to – 8.9 %. The main reason for this crop loss is the poorer rainfall regime constituting the most severe water crisis ever to hit Brazil for the last 91 years3. The combination of this drought never before experienced by citriculture and successive frosts in July culminated in a gradual crop decline that has been seen as harvests progress and disclose totally atypical figures. Field surveys also show results other than expected for this time of the year for orange planted areas yet to be harvested. In general, oranges are excessively small, and early fruit drop reaches one of its highest rates. These factors make production go back to the same levels of last crop season that totaled 268.63 million boxes, despite fruit load being 12.50 % larger since this is an “on” year. In view of this data and the perspective of climate conditions remaining adverse until harvests end, fruit should present the most critical size and drop rate in historical data. If this scenario is confirmed, there will no longer be an increase in this crop in relation to the previous season, estimated at 9.51 % in May, but rather a smaller volume than the production in the last season (- 0,28 %). …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
3National operator of the energy system – ONS. Data for the Parana River basin, encompassing the states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás and Distrito Federal.
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
By the end of the 2020/21 season, in June 2021, the inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) equivalent at Brazilian processors totaled 316.93 thousand tons, according to data from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released in mid-August. Compared to that at the end of the 2019/20 season, inventories decreased by 33 %. This reduction was already expected by agents, due to the slower crushing pace of oranges in 2020/21, when orange production was low.
CitrusBR avoided releasing estimates for the current season because of the weather issues (extended drought in the citrus belt and frosts in late July) in the major citrus-producing regions in Brazil, which are still concerning agents. However, ending stocks in the 2021/22 season (by June 2022) may be lower than the strategic level.
So far, considering Fundecitrus’ (Citrus Defense Fund) production estimates from May, of 294 million boxes (40.8 kilograms each), the volume processed may be around 250 million boxes. In that scenario, Cepea data indicate that ending stocks in the 2021/22 season (which ends in June/22) may not be enough to generate a world surplus of orange juice.
Also, agents in the Brazilian citrus sector believe that the estimates from Fundecitrus will be revised down, due to the drought and frosts in Brazil. In this context, the volume processed may be revised too, and juice inventories may be even lower. Thus, processors will depend on higher orange production in 2022/23 to, at least, replenish inventories – which is a concern too, considering that the effects of the weather may be extended to the coming season, since many trees are currently debilitated.
As regards orange processing, the crushing pace for the fruits from 2021/22 was fast in August at the large-sized plants in São Paulo State (SP), with mostly pear oranges being crushed.
Orange processing is expected to last until mid-February/March 2022, with less plants in activity compared to that in the second semester of 2021, however, with higher volumes being produced than that in the same period of previous years, because of the delay in the development of trees (due to weather issues) and irregular flowering. It is worth to consider that the 2021/22 season is expected to have higher volumes of fruits from the third and fourth flowering events (altogether) since Fundecitrus began estimating crops, in 2015/16 – making it a late crop.
BRAZILIAN MARKET IN AUGUST – The demand for oranges was low in the Brazilian market in August, constrained by the current high price levels and lower quality of the oranges available (small-sized and wilted). Still, prices increased, boosted by low supply.
The 2021-2022 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on May 27, 2021 by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp, is 294.17 million boxes (40.8 kg or 90 lb). Total orange production includes:
- 51.37 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties;
- 16.87 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple varieties;
- 84.66 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety;
- 107.07 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties;
- 34.20 million boxes of the Natal variety.
Approximately 26.09 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro.
As compared to the final forecast of 268.63 million boxes in the previous crop, the current projection represents an increase of 9.51 % although it is still below the average of 35 million boxes for the last ten crop seasons, which corresponds to a drop of 10.53 % …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
After the low production in the 2020/21 season, agents expect a limited orange crop in 2021/22 in São Paulo State and the Triângulo Mineiro, due to unfavorable weather conditions. This scenario tends to underpin orange prices in 2021.
The first estimates for the 2021/22 crop, released by the USDA in December/2020, indicate that the harvest in SP and the Triângulo Mineiro should total 315 million boxes of 40.8-kilos each, 17 % up from that in the previous season. Despite this recovery, this volume does not mean the productive potential of crops will be recovered because of the bad weather conditions in these regions.
Thus, a harvest of 315 million boxes is not high, and therefore may not be enough to totally offset orange juice inventories. On the other hand, it should favor farmers’ revenue for one more year, due to the firm industrial demand. It is worth to mention that these estimates may change, since it is still early to assess production, majorly this year. Fundecitrus should release estimates only in May 2021.
INVENTORIES – Data from CitrusBR indicate that initial inventories in the 2021/22 season may be from 240 to 280 thousand tons in July/21. Although this volume is not lower than the strategic level established, the small harvest in the 2021/22 season may limit the volume by the end of the season, in June 2022.
CONTRACTS WITH THE INDUSTRY – Deals for the new season have not been closed. As the volume produced is still uncertain, reasonable prices cannot be fixed either. Besides, in the 2020/21 season, many processors closed deals for the following crop. Thus, a higher volume of fruits from the coming season has already been sold. Still, prices are expected to be positive in this segment, since the demand from the industry should be high.
IN NATURA MARKET – Higher industrial demand should keep orange prices on the rise in the in natura market in 2021/22. As the 2021/22 crop is expected to be late again, the prices of early oranges should be favored, and quotes should be underpinned, since the pear orange crop may be late.
Updated orange1 crop forecast totals 269.36 million boxes
The 2020-2021 orange crop forecast update for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on December 10, 2020 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 –, is 269.36 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. The first forecast update, published in September, already showed a drop as compared to the initial projection, but the expected production was significantly hindered by late rainfall in the spring and intense heat. In this second forecast update, a decrease of 18.40 million boxes represents a drop of 6.39 % in relation to the initial forecast. Should this new projection hold true until harvest ends, it will result in the largest crop loss for the citrus belt since the beginning of the historical series in 1988-1989 and a downturn of 30.36 % in comparison to the previous crop season. Approximately 19.35 million boxes of the total crop should be produced in West Minas Gerais.
A poor outlook for rainfall was expected in 2020 due to the possibility of the climate event La Niña forming, which was officially confirmed in September. However, other phenomena, such as the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, simultaneously contributed to less rainfall and increased temperatures that reached unprecedented levels in several regions of the citrus belt. Consequently, the effects on groves resulting from adverse weather conditions this year were much worse as compared to those observed during the last La Niña, between November 2017 and April 2018. …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
Citrus farms have 182 thousand hectares of native woods equivalent to one hectare of forest to every two and a half hectares of citrus
This year, the Crop Forecast Survey (PES) by Fundecitrus included a study in citriculture on the quantification of areas dedicated to the preservation of native vegetation and biodiversity on citrus farms in São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais, which showed that green areas total 181,750 hectares. The area allocated to citriculture on those same farms amounts to 459,058 hectares, i.e., there is one hectare dedicated to environmental preservation to every 2.52 hectares of citrus groves.
“For the first time it was possible to assess the environmental contribution of citriculture, which is quite considerable. This preserved fixed asset shows the commitment of the Brazilian citriculture to environmental sustainability”, says Fundecitrus general manager Juliano Ayres.
PES coordinator Vinícius Trombin explains that the perenniality of citriculture favors the preservation of flora and fauna, creating favorable conditions for animal life to thrive. “The bearing life of citrus trees is approximately 20 years, therefore intense earth moving is not frequent and the growing system involves low traffic of invasive equipment, keeping woods stable and safe to animals”, he clarifies. “Fruticulture also provides food to birds and small animals”, he adds.
Methodology by Embrapa Territorial
The quantification of the preserved area was based on a methodology developed by Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária – Embrapa Territorial, with information of the complete mapping of the citrus belt performed by Fundecitrus in 2017 and data from the Rural Environmental Registry (RER).
According to head of Embrapa Territorial Evaristo de Miranda, information is relevant to protect the sustainability of the Brazilian production. “This work complements and enriches the analyses on the territorial dimension of areas designated to preservation of native vegetation by farmers who use the methods developed by Embrapa Territorial on their farms in the citrus belt with significant results, he comments.
Sustainable production
According to the Brazilian forest code, preservation of vegetation aims at conserving water resources, landscape, soil, biodiversity of flora and fauna and the well-being of the population.
In the assessment by researcher at the Instituto Internacional de Ecologia (IIE) José Galizia Tundisi, who specializes in the management of water resources, the rate between areas of native forests and citrus growing areas represents an important investment and a crucial example for sustainable production. “This initiative benefits not only the citrus production sector, but rather all society”, he states. “It has already been scientifically evidenced that areas of preserved native vegetation have quantitative and qualitative influence on the hydrological cycle and the spring water quality, as well as on the preservation of the land biodiversity”, he points out.
Biologist and researcher at the Centro de Estudos de Insetos Sociais of the Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp-Rio Claro) Osmar Malaspina also highlights the impact on the fauna. “These protected areas contribute to sustained biodiversity and help preserve pollinating species such as bees. The presence of pollinators generates a significant financial return to growers due to an increase of up to 50% in the quantity and quality of fruits produced”, he emphasizes.
In addition, data from the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) points to a large production of honey in the citrus belt. “Approximately 80% of the honey in the state of São Paulo is produced in cities where citrus is grown. In the region, the increase in honey production in the last decade was much greater than in cities that are not part of the citrus belt “, highlights Trombin.
In Aguaí (SP), the farm of citrus grower Richard Van Den Broek surpasses the 20% of preserved woods required by law. His family has been dedicated to citriculture for three generations, passing on the concern about the environment. In order to conserve the soil and the eight kilometers of the Itupeva river that cross the farm, the citrus grower employs no-till and contour farming. Animals such as puma, pampas deer, black capuchin and paca are often seen
– hunting and fishing are prohibited. Bees are kept in the woods as well.
“The farm was purchased in 2002 and already had a preservation area that demanded care, so all recommended good practices were adopted to maintain it”, he comments. “As long as growers respect the environment, they benefit the most, with preserved tributaries, water supply and a balanced ecosystem. We perceive that as wealth and are greatly pleased to know that flora and fauna are in harmony with citrus growing”, he says.
Crop loss of 25.6 % in relation to previous crop is due to lower nutrient reserves in plants and adverse climatic conditions
The 2020-2021 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is estimated at 287.76 million boxes of 40,8 kg, according to the online announcement made May 11 by Fundecitrus. This number is 25.6 % smaller than the previous crop of 386.79 million boxes, and 12.5 % below the average crop size for the last 10 years. Approximately 20.56 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro.
Expected yield is estimated at 790 boxes per hectare, as compared to the 1,045 boxes per hectare in the previous crop.
“It is a small crop, considering the productive potential of groves, but that is due to the biennial production cycle of orange trees”, explains Fundecitrus general manager Juliano Ayres. “Since the previous crop was large, nutrient reserves this year are smaller. In addition, climatic conditions were adverse during fruit setting and the first phase of fruit growth”, he states.
Influence of the climate and late blooms
Crop loss was caused by a reduced number of fruits per tree in comparison to the previous crop. The large production in the previous season increased the consumption of nutrient reserves in plants, which became scarce and triggered the phenomenon known as alternate bearing. Furthermore, the climate was also a negative influence: high temperatures in September and October 2019 affected the setting of newly formed fruit.
Adverse climatic conditions were also seen in March and April 2020, affecting fruit at a more advanced stage of development. According to data from Somar Meteorologia, the accumulated rainfall volume in that period was not even half the historical average (1981-2010), which restricted fruit growth.
245.15 million boxes of the estimated production are of fruit from the first and second blooms (85.2 % of the total), 34.64 million boxes are of fruit from the third bloom (12 %) and 7.97 million boxes are of fruit from the fourth bloom (2.8 %).
Dry weather in March and April 2020 restricted the growth of fruits that should still be small at harvest. Oranges are expected to weigh 159 grams at harvest.
Alternate bearing in regions
Yield per sector this crop season, as compared to last year’s, shows significant variations among locations. The Northwest sector, encompassing the regions of Votuporanga and São José do Rio Preto, ranks first in yield drop. 492 boxes per hectare expected to be produced in that sector represent a drop of 46.7 % in relation to the 2019-2020 crop. Next comes the North sector (regions of Triângulo Mineiro, Bebedouro and Altinópolis), with an expected yield of 686 boxes per hectare (-35.9 %); then the Central sector (regions of Matão, Duartina and Brotas), with 721 boxes expected per hectare (-30.1 %); the South sector (regions of Porto Ferreira and Limeira), with 781 boxes expected per hectare (-16.5 %); and the Southwest (regions of Avaré and Itapetininga), where 1.185 boxes should be harvested per hectare (-2.7 %) (see the graph below).
“The greater drop in yield expected for this current crop, the larger the increment observed in the previous crop. This is one evidence of the biennial production cycle of orange trees, showing that usually the fruit load one year is inversely proportional to the fruit load in the previous year, causing variations in yield per hectare that alternate with the crop seasons”, analyzes PES coordinator Vinícius Trombin. “But the main reason for crop fluctuations is the climatic change that often occurs from one year to the next. In regions with more stable climate, such as Avaré and Itapetininga, yield variations are smaller”, adds the survey coordinator.
Recovery of orange juice consumption
The São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is the largest worldwide producer of orange for processing. According to PES methodological coordinator and Professor at USP and FGV Marcos Fava Neves, the 2020-2021 crop and the inventory volume are now balanced due to the recovery of the demand for juice, heated up in major markets as a result of the COVID-10 pandemic.
“In view of an attempt to boost immunity, the citrus sector sees an increasing consumption of orange juice. It is an extremely nutritious liquid food”, he states.
Citriculture and sustainability
This year, based on methodology developed by Embrapa Territorial, PES has estimated the area of conserved woods on citrus farms: 182 thousand hectares throughout the citrus belt. On average, there is one hectare dedicated to conservation on farms for every 2.52 hectares of citrus groves. Data was obtained from cross-checking the information collected in the field by Fundecitrus with data from the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR).
“This work shows the important role of citriculture in environmental conservation and biodiversity, with large conserved areas integrated within farms”, says Trombin.
Methodology
For the estimate, orange trees were counted one by one in 2,557 plots and fruits from 1,590 trees were harvested throughout the citrus belt. “The reduced number of samples due to COVID-19 caused minor impact in the general survey result, which can be verified by the error of ±2.65% in the average number of fruits per tree”, PES methodology analyst and Professor at the department of engineering, math and science at FCAV/Unesp José Carlos Barbosa states.
The Crop Forecast Survey is carried out by Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat, school of economics, business administration and accounting (FEA) of the university of São Paulo (USP) and the “Júlio de Mesquita” school of agricultural science and veterinary medicine (FCAV) of the São Paulo state university (Unesp).
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
Orange production for the 2019-2020 crop season totals 386.79 million boxes1
The final 2019-2020 orange crop forecast for São Paulo, Triângulo Mineiro and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 09, 2020 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is 386.79 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, which represents a decrease of 0.54 % in relation to the first crop forecast carried out in May 2019 of 388.89 million boxes. This crop is 35.3 % larger in comparison to the previous season (2018-2019), when 285.98 million boxes were produced, evidencing the biennial production cycle of orange trees, that is, larger crops alternated with smaller ones. …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Departament of Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp Campus Jaboticabal.
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
Updated orange1 crop forecast totals 384.87 million boxes
The 2019/2020 orange crop forecast update for São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro/Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is 384.87 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. This figure corresponds to a decrease of 0.11 % in relation to the previous forecast update published in December 2019 and is 1.03 % smaller as compared to the first crop forecast announced in May 2019. Approximately 26.85 million boxes of the total crop should be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
Rainfall remained below normal for most of the citrus belt from May 2019 to January 2020, according to data from Somar Meteorologia. Accumulated rainfall in this period averaged 836 millimeters for all regions, which is 14% or 139 millimeters below the historical average of 975 millimeters (1981-2010). Rainfall shortage was more pronounced in the Central, South and Southwest sectors, including regions such as Limeira, where the accumulated amount was only 690 millimeters, that is, 33% or 341 millimeters below normal. …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1 Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2 Departament of Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp Campus Jaboticabal.
The heavy rains that hit São Paulo State in the first fortnight of February did not result in losses in orange groves, but reduced sales and hampered activities in the field. It is worth to mention that the harvesting pace is usually a lot slower in the first quarter of the year and that many of the fruits available in the market in the first half of the month had undesirable features, such as larger size, thick peel and were beginning to crystalize.
According to Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund), the harvesting of the current crop is ending in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro), having reached 96 % of the area, on average, for all varieties. In pera rio groves, 97 % of the oranges have been harvested, for valencia and folha murcha, 95 %, and for natal, 93 %.
Despite the lower quality in the current off-season period, precipitation should not reduce the output in the 2019/20 crop, but underpin prices in the in natura market – as supply is low, the demand for higher quality oranges should be firm. Between February 3 and 14, pear orange prices averaged 32.68 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 10.8 % up compared to that in the first half of January.
FUNDECITRUS – On February 11, Fundecitrus released their third estimates for the current season (2019/20). According to the report, the output should total 384.87 million 40.8-kilo box, 0.11 % down compared to that forecast in December/19 and 1.03 % lower than the first crop estimates, released in May/19.
According to the report, the rain volume between May/19 and Jan/20 was lower than the historical average in almost all producing regions (except in northern and northwestern SP), which limited growth, primarily for the varieties hamlin, westin, rubi, folha murch and natal. In general, the oranges have reached different sizes among the producing regions in the citrus belt, due to irregular rains.
TAHITI LIME – The rainy weather in São Paulo in the first fortnight of February hampered field activities and helped to control supply (it is worth to mention that, currently, tahiti lime is at crop peak). Still, on the average of the period, tahiti lime prices dropped 18.2 % compared to that in the same period of January, averaging 11.65 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, in the first half of February.
In June 2019, the inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) equivalent at Brazilian processing plants closed at 253.18 thousand tons, 26.2 % smaller than that in the 2017/18 season, according to data from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters).
This volume is considered small in light of historic inventories – in recent years, inventories were only lower than that in 2010/11 and in 2016/17. The worse performance of Brazilian juice exports in 2018/19, therefore, prevented juice inventories at Brazilian processing plants from decreasing to critical levels.
CitrusBR should only release data about the ending stocks from 2019/20 and 2020/21 (June/20) next year. However, according to Cepea calculations, inventories should bounce back at the processing plants from São Paulo in 2020/21, due to the large 2019/20 crop in the citrus belt.
Considering initial inventories at 253.18 thousand tons in June/19, the demand in the in natura market, between 50 and 60 million orange boxes (the remaining production is allocated to crushing), and the increase in exports, to around 1.05 million tons, Cepea estimates inventories to be around 400 thousand tons by June/20, much higher than the current levels.
Although this scenario points to high inventories (the last four seasons ended with lower inventories), the effect on orange quotes in 2020/21 will depend on the volume to be produced next season. If production is average or high, the season tends to end with large volumes stocked again, which may constrain remuneration to growers as well as price rises for orange juice.
According to Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund), the annual orange production in the Brazilian citrus belt has been oscillating between high and low. However, it is still early to forecast the 2020/21 season, since flowering is still beginning in some groves from SP – but, considering the long drought, flowerings may be favored.
With the higher juice supply in 2019/20, shipments may bounce back from 2018/19. The needs of European distributors may favor exports, but higher demand from the United States will still depend on Florida’s production.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – The high price levels for tahiti lime hampered new deals in the in natura market from SP in August. According to agents, supply was low, since, until the end of the month, the fruits still on tree had not reached the ideal size and maturation stage to be harvested.
Drier weather limited fruits growth, which should underpin tahiti lime prices in September. Between August 1 and 31, quotes averaged 30.03 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 20.1 % up compared to that in July.
In the in natura market of pear oranges, the trading pace was slow and demand decreased in August. However, low supply underpinned prices. Thus, pear orange quotes averaged 18.26 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, in August, 1.1 % up compared to that in July.
The 2018-2019 orange crop forecast update for São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on September 10, 2018 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is of 273.34 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. This figure corresponds to a decrease of 5.19 % in relation to the estimate published in May/2018. Approximately 15.37 million boxes of the total crop should be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro.
Fruit of all varieties harvested up to August presented average weight below the May/2018 forecast. Smaller fruit resulted from a more severe drought than expected for May to July at the time of the estimate. Rainfall in that period is directly related to fruit development and consequently to final fruit weight at harvest. Climatological expectations at that time pointed to a less rainy year, with an accumulated average rainfall for those months of approximately 101 millimeters for the citrus belt, which is 24 % below historical average (1981-2010). However, the actual accumulated rainfall volume for that period was 36 millimeters, 73 % below historical average, characterizing the worst drought in the ten assessed years. More significant rain above historical average only fell in August in the South, Southwest and most of Central regions, with an average of 103 millimeters, whereas for the remainder of the citrus belt the average rainfall for that month was 38 millimeters.
Harvest reached 93 % completion for the early Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties, and 75 % for other earlies. Harvest totaled 29 % for the Pera variety, 15 % for the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties, and 10 % for the Natal variety. Approximately 36 % of the total 2018-2019 crop was harvested. At the same time last crop season, harvest was 34 % complete. The main difference between the two crop seasons is that the current harvest progressed faster to late varieties. That indicates the crop season will finish earlier. Although the harvest of the Pera and late varieties is still in early stages, it is already necessary to adjust fruit size due to the water deficit that affected full development …
Please download the full update.
On Wednesday, May 9, Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released new estimates for the 2018/19 season, reducing production in the citrus belt (São Paulo State and Triângulo Mineiro) by 27.6 % compared to that in the previous crop. According to the report, harvesting in that region should total only 288.29 million orange boxes (40.8-kilo) in 18/19, 11 % down compared to the historical average of the sector.
Lower estimates from Fundecitrus have confirmed Cepea forecasts for a smaller output in 2018/19, due to the damages and losses observed in the main flowering event (from August to October last year), mainly for pear oranges. That scenario was linked to the dry weather and high temperatures during the settlement of the flowers that would become the oranges from the new season. Still, the first estimates indicated losses around 20 %, which could result in a higher production than that forecast.
Ending stocks for orange juice should be 22 % larger on June 30, 2018 (at 254.2 thousand tons), according to CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters), but that is still the fourth lowest volume in the last 20 years. Thus, the citrus belt would have to harvest, once again, high amounts, in order to ensure comfortable inventories at processors. The demand for orange juice has been firm, mainly from the United States, making the global supply and demand scenario even more difficult.
However, in the short-term, growers’ revenue may not increase significantly, since most of them have already closed anticipated trades with processors – trades have been closed since November last year. Thus, only a few growers still have fruits available for trading.
Currently, only one of the large-sized processors has been purchasing fruits in the spot market. Before the new estimates were released, quotes for all varieties were at 15 BRL per 40.8-kilo, harvested and delivered at the processor. However, prices may increase as the crop nears and more processors enter the market.
In the mid-term, on the other hand, forecasts for the next season (2019/20) are more positive, considering juice inventories may be empty by June 2019. Besides, with the smaller output in Florida, international demand for the commodity should continue firm during the season. There are concerns with the weather in the coming months as well, which may lower the volume forecast even more.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – Orange sales increased in the in natura market in early May. According to growers, the beginning of the month, when workers’ wages are paid, may have favored demand. However, the average price for that variety in the first fortnight of the month was 19 % lower than in the first fortnight of April. That scenario is linked to higher supply in São Paulo, as well as the slow crushing pace at processors, which led orange sales exclusively to the in natura market (these fruits would be allocated to processors for crushing). Between May 2 and 15, pear orange quotes averaged 25.81 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 19 % down compared to that in the first fortnight of April (2 – 13).
Tahiti lime quotes, however, continued at high levels in that period, both in the domestic market and for exportation. According to growers, the fruits still on tree have a good quality, but have not reached the ideal size to be harvested yet – due to the lack of rains in São Paulo. Thus, tahiti lime quotes averaged 49.17 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, between May 2 and 15, a staggering 174.2 % up compared to the price average in the first fortnight of April.
New stage of action wants to mobilize adults and children in urban areas to help fight the disease.
The Brazilian Citriculture Defense Fund is working hard to promote the campaign United Against Greening. Now, the campaign extends to the citrus belt urban areas, areas where, at first, there is no management of the disease. The new stage of the work wants to mobilize the population of these areas, and in rural areas as well, where there are no commercial groves, as it’s the case of small farms and ranches.
In order to do that, Fundecitrus has hired a new team, which is developing actions in these places. One of them is the replacement of orange and lemon trees with other fruit varieties. The teams have visited homes and schools as well, to talk about the campaign. The actions to exchange the plants are carried out through home visits, and have the support of lectures for students and teachers of municipal schools, production of printed materials and cars with sound system to bring information to the community. So far more than 2,000 plants have been exchanged. “Citrus and myrtle plants in towns make it difficult to fight citrus greening on commercial properties. Developing this work in areas with no management is extremely important due to the destructive potential of the disease, “says Fundecitrus agronomist, Mr. Ivaldo Sala, work coordinator.
The teams work in partnership with town halls and companies to exchange myrtles, and orange, lemon and mandarin trees contaminated with citrus greening, which hasn’t received the chemical control recommended, for other fruit and ornamental trees. The psyllid, citrus greening transmitting insect, when feeding on orange, lemon and mandarin trees infected with the disease, it acquires the bacterium and starts to spread it. The insect travels long distances, leaves the urban area and arrives in the rural area, contaminating the groves.
