Total orange production1 is updated at 294.81 million boxes
The second update of the 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on December 10, 2025, by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with professor (retired) from FCAV/Unesp2, is 294.81 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90-pound box). In comparison to the May forecast, the crop season is expected to yield 19.79 million fewer boxes, a decline of 6.3 %. Compared to the last forecast released in September, which projected 306.74 million boxes, the new estimate indicates a 3.9 % reduction, corresponding to a decrease of 11.9 million boxes. This downward trend is due to the estimated smaller average size of oranges and a higher rate of premature fruit drop. It is also estimated that approximately 25.83 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
When the last updated forecast was disclosed in September, the harvest pace indicated that a significant portion of the Pera variety crop would be harvested after the more intense rains expected during spring. However, rainfall in September …
The World Citrus Organisation (WCO) has released its annual Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast for the upcoming citrus season (2025-2026), which was presented on the occasion of the 2025-2026 Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast Outlook, organised on 20 November by WCO. The Forecast, based on data from Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, the United States, and Portugal, shows that citrus production is expected to decrease by 1.51 % compared to the 2024-2025 season, with a total of 27,397,239 t, which is also a 5.13 % decrease from the average of the previous four seasons.
WCO, the World Citrus Organisation, released on 20 November its annual Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast for the upcoming season (2025-26). The preliminary Forecast is based on data from industry associations from the Mediterranean region and the United States. Citrus production for 2025/2026 is expected to decrease by 1.51 % compared to the 2024-2025 season, with a total of 27,397,239 t, which is also a 5.13 % decrease compared to the average of the previous four seasons. Exports are also foreseen to decline (-0.81 % compared to last season and -8.25 % compared to the 4-year average, respectively).
Looking at the country-specific figures for the largest producers in the EU, Spain’s citrus production is projected to decrease by 9.72 % compared to the previous season, to a total of 5.59 million t (-11.20% lower than the previous four seasons). The second-largest EU producer, Italy, also foresees a decrease in its volumes (-6.12 %, 3 million t in total), with Greece (1.23 million t) also reducing its production by 1.58 %. Portugal, contributing to the forecast for the second year, expects a 14.20 % increase (0.38 million t). Looking at the main non-EU countries in the Mediterranean, Egypt expects a 13.85 % growth to become the largest producer with 4.95 million t. Turkey, on the other hand, foresees a stark decline in 2025-2026 compared to both last year (-10.83 %) and the average of the last four seasons (-15.31 %), with 4.42 million t. The situation in Morocco should remain stable at 2.09 million t. Regarding the smaller non-EU Mediterranean producers, Israel reports the largest increase (+24.12 %, 0.53 million t in total), while the estimates for Tunisia are 3 % lower than last season (0.37 million t). Although the release of the yearly forecast by the USDA has been delayed due to the government shutdown, early estimates from California and Florida indicate a 4.53 % increase, bringing the American production to 4.85 million t, pending further revisions.
Looking at the production by category, oranges (representing 51 % of the total volumes) are set to decrease by 2.16 % to a total of 13.86 million t. Soft citrus production should increase by 5.91 % (8.51 million t in total), while lemons are expected to experience a 12.38 % reduction (4.23 million t). Finally, grapefruit production is predicted to increase slightly to 0.79 million t (+1.17% compared to 2024-2025).
Next April, the WCO will release the 2026 production and export forecast for the Southern Hemisphere.
On the occasion of the Pipfruit Market Observatory of the European Commission, WAPA (World Apple and Pear Association) presented a first update of its 2025/2026 European apple and pear forecast initially released at Prognosfruit in August 2025. The revised figures show a moderate increase in both apple and pear production for this season to reach, respectively, close to 11 million T for apples and slightly above 1.8 million T for pears. This is mainly due to favourable late-summer weather conditions that improved fruit sizes and colouring for mid and late-season varieties. While production is slightly higher than initially expected, total volumes remain well below the full potential of 13 million tonnes for apples and more than 2 million tonnes for pears, confirming for pipfruit a “medium to low” average European 2025/2026 season crop.
This provisional updated estimate brings the EU apple crop from the initial 10.4 million T released in August to reach between 10.9 and 11 million tonnes, about 5 % higher than the initial August forecast. It ranks this year’s crop as the 6th of the decade, and well below the peak crop of 2018 at 13.2 million tonnes. The EU pear crop is now estimated at just over 1.8 million tonnes, slightly higher than August expectations. This marks for pears the third consecutive low crop, and the fourth lowest of the decade, far from the 2010 peak of 2.7 million tonnes.
Following challenging spring conditions with late frost, weak pollination, and early-summer drought, more favourable weather conditions were recorded in September with rains and appropriate temperatures that contributed to improved yields across several Member States. The main revisions include an indicative increase for Poland (+400,000 tonnes), Germany (+60,000 to 80,000 tonnes), Belgium (+20,000 tonnes), the Netherlands (+10,000 tonnes), and France (+20,000 tonnes). Several contributors of Prognosfruit are still updating their figures, including Italy and Austria, as well as the aforementioned countries, upon the final harvesting later in November. For pears, an increase is mainly observed in Belgium (+25,000 T), the Netherlands (+10,000 T), and France (+10,000 T), an increase partially offset by a small further decline in Italy (-9,000 T).
WAPA emphasises that the updated figures reflect normal forecast adjustments as weather developments up to the end of harvesting in November can significantly influence fruit size and yields estimated in August. The organisation underlines that such revisions are part of a transparent and adaptive forecasting process.
“While this year’s crop is slightly higher than initially anticipated, the European apple and pear market remains well balanced,” said Philippe Binard on behalf of Prognosfruit. He added, “Production continues to be below full potential, stocks are clean, and new export openings are providing a positive outlook for the season”.
Although early sales in several countries were slowed by abundant garden production and cautious consumer demand, the market is now moving into full speed, supported by healthy domestic consumption and emerging export opportunities. The EU market observatory, building on some of the findings released at Prognosfruit, underlined some positive parameters for the season development. It is reminded that the season had a clean start with no overlapping stocks nor significant imports. While the intra-EU trade dynamic is not yet at its full potential in key markets such as Germany due to strong local availability, the outlook for intra-EU trade always remains as a safe bank for the sector, next to local sales. Some quality challenges have led to higher volumes being directed to the processing sector, balancing well the fresh market potential and tightening the stocks outlook for the fresh market later in the season. Despite geopolitical headwinds, export volumes are now already in full swing with volume up 20 % year-on-year, buoyed by lower production in Turkey. This is creating opportunities for the EU exporters in the Middle East, India and North Africa (Egypt, Libya) and as well as elsewhere in Southeast Asia or Latin America, despite some exchange rate disadvantages for EU traders, some ongoing market access restrictions, and logistics constraints in the Red Sea.
The apple and pear sector will need to continue mitigating some challenges for positive development, including securing satisfactory prices to fully recover rising production costs, securing a diversified toolbox for yield performance, and addressing emerging biosecurity risks under climate change. It will remain key to stimulate consumption uptake with evolving consumer patterns, availability of appropriate packaging types, and increased competition from other agrifood products and the growth of other fruit categories on supermarket shelves.
Apples and pears remain the lead category in the fruit basket assortment and have a diversity of varieties to offer to consumers throughout the season. The category needs to be properly stimulated by the future vision for agriculture in the EU and the upcoming CAP reform to keep the sector competitive and attractive for the generational shift.
More about the future outlook for the apple and pear sector will be on the agenda of Prongnosfruit 2026, which will take place in Constance (Germany) on 5-7 August 2026.
In the first half of the 2025/26 financial year (the six months ended 31 August 2025), AGRANA, the food and industrial goods group, registered a reduction of 50.5 % in operating profit (EBIT) to € 28.0 million. The Group’s revenue decreased by 9.1 % to € 1,691.6 million (H1 previous year: € 1,861.7 million). Nevertheless, thanks to very good second-quarter results in the Food & Beverage Solutions business, AGRANA has raised its forecast for the year and now expects a significant increase in Group EBIT of between 10 % and 50 %. EBIT is now projected to be in the range of about € 45 to 60 million for the 2025/26 financial year; this takes into account that the outlook for the Agricultural Commodities & Specialities business (the Starch and Sugar segments) remains subdued.
Stephan Büttner (Photo: AGRANA)
AGRANA Chief Executive Officer Stephan Büttner says: “We are still in a challenging transformation phase as we implement NEXT LEVEL, our new Group strategy. While the results in Food & Beverage Solutions were very positive, the operating performance in the Sugar and Starch businesses was unsatisfactory. Additionally, as announced, non-recurring expenses (primarily staff costs) were recognised in the Sugar segment as part of the restructuring in Austria and the Czech Republic. The strong earnings contribution from the Food & Beverage Solutions segment not only was a stabilising factor for Group EBIT in the first half of the year, but also forms the main basis for our updated EBIT forecast for the full year 2025|26.”
AGRANA Group financial results, first half of 2025/26 (1 March – 31 August 2025)
The Group’s net financial items amounted to an expense of € 19.7 million, compared to an expense of € 19.4 million in the year-earlier period. The slight increase was due primarily to a marked deterioration in currency translation differences that outweighed a significant improvement in net interest expense. After an income tax expense of € 7.1 million, corresponding to a tax rate of 85.5 % (H1 previous year: 36.8 %), profit for the period was € 1.1 million (H1 previous year: € 23.5 million). Net debt as of 31 August 2025 decreased by € 28.6 million from the 28 February 2025 year-end level, to € 407.8 million. The gearing ratio at the quarterly balance sheet date was a steady 35.5 % (28 February 2025: 35.5 %).
As a result of price changes, revenue of the FBS segment in the first half of 2025/26 was € 859.1 million, a moderate increase from the same period one year earlier.
EBIT of the FBS segment as a whole rose to € 68.0 million in the first six months of the financial year (H1 previous year: € 50.4 million), with sales volume remaining stable overall.
Food & Beverage Solutions (FBS)
As a result of price changes, revenue of the FBS segment in the first half of 2025/26 was
€ 859.1 million, a moderate increase from the same period one year earlier.
EBIT of the FBS segment as a whole rose to € 68.0 million in the first six months of the financial year (H1 previous year: € 50.4 million), with sales volume remaining stable overall.
Revenue of the “ACS – Sugar” segment in the first half of 2025|26, at € 309.6 million, represented a significant reduction from one year earlier. The main reasons for the decline were significantly lower sales to the reseller sector and lower sugar sales prices.
The EBIT result deteriorated sharply year-on-year to a deficit of € 36.3 million. Price pressure was relatively high in the deficit markets (Central & Eastern Europe region), which had a negative impact on sales volumes with resellers. In connection with the restructuring of the sugar business (the closure of the sugar production facilities in Leopoldsdorf, Austria, and Hrusovany, Czech Republic), expenses of € 20.0 million, mostly in the form of staff costs, were recognised in the first half of 2025/26. This exceptional item had an added negative impact on EBIT.
Outlook
At Group level for the full 2025/26 financial year, AGRANA expects a significant increase in operating profit (EBIT) compared with the previous year. Group revenue is projected to show a moderate decrease. The Group’s total investment this financial year, at approximately € 100 million, is expected to be both significantly below the 2024|25 value and significantly less than the budgeted depreciation of about € 113 million.
The intensification of the fruit droppage is the main factor that led Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) to decrease the estimate for the 2025/26 season. The second report, released in early September, indicated that the production may reach 306.74 million 40.8 kg boxes in the citrus belt (São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro), 2.5 % less (or -7.86 million boxes) than that indicated in May.
The current report confirms that the fruit droppage is more critical than what had been projected previously. Some areas register losses that are close to 10 %, while others face a percentage up to 45 %. On average, the fruit droppage rate is at 22 %, two percentage points more than the initial forecast.
The Huanglongbing greening (citrus greening disease) hits 47.63 % of the citrus belt. The number of contaminated plants rose 7.4 % this year, reaching roughly 100 thousand (209 thousand were evaluated).
Ending stocks
Orange juice ending stocks (by June/26) may recover in the 2025/26 season, after four consecutive crops at very low volume.
CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released a report in early September about the 2024/25 season: inventories of frozen concentrate orange juice – FCOJ (66º Brix) totaled 146.3 thousand tons, 25.3 % more than in the previous crop. Although it is still low, the volume surprised players, since the fruit supply is scarce, leading orange prices to record levels and imposing difficulties for the industry to produce juice with good ratio. Both restricted quality and high values limited sales to the international market in the last season. According to data from Secex/Comexstat, the volume exported in 2024/25 was at 776.8 thousand tons, downing 22.6 % in relation to the crop before and the smallest since 1997, when the series has started.
Cepea calculations indicate that, due to the progress of the 2025/26 season and the improvement of the juice quality (since pear oranges will join the crushing), inventories may finish the season (June/26) close or higher than 200 thousand tons. If confirmed, it will be the first time in a half decade that the sector will leave the critical volume behind (below 150 thousand tons). However, in order for inventories to reach this level, the consumption needs to return to volumes before 2024/25, the juice productivity needs to be on the average over the last five crops (278 40.8-kg boxes per juice ton) and the industry needs to process at least 260 million boxes.
Total orange production1 is updated at 306.74 million boxes
The first update of the 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on September 10, 2025, by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with professor (retired) from FCAV/Unesp2, is 306.74 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90-pound box). Compared with the May estimate, the crop season is expected to yield 7.86 million fewer boxes, a decline of 2.5 %, due to a higher projected rate of premature fruit drop. Analysing by maturity group, the early-season varieties decrease by approximately 6.1 %, the mid-season (Pera) by 1.2 %, and the late-season varieties by 1.6 %. It is also estimated that approximately 25.84 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
According to Climatempo Meteorologia, from May to August 2025 the average accumulated rainfall in the citrus belt was 94 millimeters, which corresponds to a 33 % deficit in relation to the historical average (1991- 2020) …
At the Prognosfruit 2025 Conference, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) released its annual forecast for the 2025/2026 season. Apple production across the EU’s top producing countries is expected to remain nearly identical to last year’s volumes, reaching 10.5 million t (-0.1 %), though remaining 7.5 % below the 3- and 5-year average. Golden Delicious, as the main variety of the apple category, will see a minor decrease (-0.9 % to 2.06 million t), while Gala stabilises at 1.43 million t. Red Delicious and Idared are forecast to experience notable drops of -19.2 % and -8.8 % respectively.
On the pear side, EU production is projected to grow by 1.4 % year-on-year to 1.79 million t, though it remains 2.5 % below the 3-year average. Italy’s output is expected to fall again sharply (-24.7 %), offset by substantial increases in Belgium (+32.1 %) and the Netherlands (+8.1 %). Conference pears will rise by +15.6 % to 857,368 t, while William BC production will shrink by -16.7 %.
For both apples and pears, the lower production compared to the previous years’ average reflects ongoing challenges in yield consistency, impacted by climatic havoc, the limited toolbox, the varietal transition towards better but less productive varieties, or the shift to organic.
The „2025/2026 Tree Inventory and Orange Crop Forecast“ presents the results of the eleventh survey on the tree inventory of São Paulo and west- southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt carried out by Fundecitrus in cooperation with full professor from the department of Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp from August 2024 to May 2025. The report is based on full remapping and in-field data collection from August 2024 to May 2025 and reflects a notable rebound in orange production following years of challenges …
Fruit beverages market size, share, and forecast 2025 to 2035
The global fruit beverages market is projected to grow from USD 50 billion in 2025 to USD 74 billion by 2035, registering a steady CAGR of 4.0 %. The juice blends segment dominates in 2025 with a 38 % share, supported by rising demand for functional and fortified fruit drinks.
Fruit beverages market forecast and outlook 2025 to 2035
The fruit beverages market is projected to grow from USD 50 billion in 2025 to USD 74 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 4.0 % during the forecast period. The United States is expected to be the most lucrative market for fruit beverages, owing to its mature yet evolving demand for low-calorie, vitamin-enriched juices and blends.
Meanwhile, India is anticipated to register the fastest growth from 2025 to 2035, driven by rising disposable income, a shift toward healthier beverage choices, and expanding organised retail penetration across Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities.
The fruit beverages market is undergoing a steady transformation, with consumers increasingly shifting away from carbonated soft drinks toward natural, health-forward alternatives. Juice blends fortified with antioxidants, probiotics, and functional ingredients like turmeric or collagen are gaining popularity.
While premiumisation and wellness-driven innovations continue to fuel growth in urban segments, rural and price-sensitive markets remain dominated by traditional, pulp-rich mango and mixed fruit variants.
However, growth is restrained by seasonal raw material availability, regulatory scrutiny around sugar content, and high packaging and cold chain costs. To address these challenges, manufacturers are investing in aseptic filling technology, cold-pressed processing, and no-added-sugar formulations that appeal to health-conscious consumers and align with clean label trends.
Looking ahead from 2025 to 2035, the fruit beverages marketis expected to evolve toward greater functional differentiation and sustainability. Demand for organic-certified, traceable, and plant-based beverages will accelerate, especially in Europe and East Asia …
The 2024-2025 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 12.0 million boxes. The total includes 4.60 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.40 million boxes of Valencia oranges …
The 2024-2025 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is up less than 1 percent at 11.6 million boxes. If realised, this will be 36 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 4.58 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.05 million boxes of Valencia oranges …
The 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on May 09, 2025, by Fundecitrus in cooperation with full professor at FCAV/Unesp1, is 314.60 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90 lbs) each. This production is divided as follows (figures in parentheses indicate the variation in production as compared to the previous crop):
49.48 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties (+ 31.49 %);
19.86 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada varieties (+ 27.31 %);
90.51 million boxes of the Pera variety (+ 21.16 %);
114.58 million boxes of the Valencia and Folha Murcha varieties (+ 50.78 %);
40.17 million boxes of the Natal variety (+ 49.05 %).
Approximately 26.93 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro (+ 80.3 %).
Overall, the projected volume represents a significant increase of 36.27 % compared to the previous crop season, whose final number was 230.87 million boxes, bringing production back into the average range of the last ten years, …
1José Carlos Barbosa, (voluntary) Full Professor at FCAV/Unesp.
Total orange production1 for the 2024-2025 crop season ended at 230.87 million boxes
The 2024-2025 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with full professor from FCAV/Unesp2, concluded with 230.87 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows:
7.63 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin e Rubi early-season varieties;
15.60 million boxes of Valência Americana, Seleta, Pineapple e Alvorada early-season varieties;
74.70 million boxes of Pera Rio mid-season variety;
75.99 million boxes of Valência e Valência Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
26.95 million boxes of Natal late-season variety.
Of the total, about 14.94 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
This season production was 0.65% below the initial estimate released in May 2024 (232.38 million boxes) and 24.85% below the previous crop season, which totaled 307.22 million boxes, a production level in line with the historical average. The 2024-2025 crop was confirmed as the second smallest in the last 37 years, considered atypical due to adverse weather conditions, marked by dry weather, high temperatures, the extremely late and expressive fourth bloom, along with the incidence of greening …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal. 2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
All Oranges 11.6 Million Boxes
The 2024-2025 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is unchanged at 11.6 million boxes. If realised, this will be 36 percent less than last season’s revised production. The forecast consists of 4.60 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.00 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
As processing companies reduced the pace of activities of oranges in early April, part of units was then focused on crushing the tahiti lime. According to players surveyed by Cepea, this scenario helps to flow non-standard fruits to processing activities, reducing the volume in the in natura market.
Due to the higher demand from the industry, quotations were firm. In the first three months of 2025, prices paid by the industry for the tahiti lime averaged BRL 25.06 per 40.8-kg box, 55 % above that in the same period last year and the highest considering the first quarter since 2019 (BRL 29.95/box), in real terms (IGP-DI March/25).
From April 7-10, the price average of the fruit delivered at the industry was at BRL 26.00 per box, upping 13.04 % compared to that verified in the last week of March. This scenario ends up keeping the price level close to BRL 30/box in the in natura market. Tahiti lime prices are at BRL 29.22 per 27.2-kg box between April 7 and 10, downing 2.2 % compared to the week before.
Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released its report of the 2024/25 season on April 10, indicating that the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) harvested 230.87 million 40.8-kg boxes, for a decrease of 0.65 % (or 1.51 million boxes) in relation to the first estimate (May/24), but upping 1.03 % (or 2.35 million boxes) compared to that projected in February/25. In relation to the previous crop, the decrease is by 24.85 %.
The increase of the orange size, especially fruits from the fourth blossoming, and the decrease of the fruit drop rate boosted the new estimate for the 2024/25 output compared to the previous projection.
Data released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in February indicate that the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) may harvest 228.52 million 40.8-kg boxes, moving down 1.7 % (or 3.86 million boxes) compared to the first estimate, released in May/24, but upping 2.4 % (or 5.38 million boxes) in relation to the report from December/24.
Besides the good development of the fourth blossoming, Fundecitrus indicates that the rainfall has favored the production.
The higher supply against the previous crop brings a certain relief, but the sector still faces the low quality of the fruits and the low industrial productivity.
This scenario of higher supply and lower quality has been pressing quotations down. For the industry, which has been purchasing fruits at BRL 82.88/box, on average, in the second week of February, the decrease is by 3.63 % against the week before.
Florida
The orange production in Florida has also been facing challenges. The USDA indicated this month that the production in the state is likely to reach 11.5 million boxes, downing 500 thousand boxes compared to the estimate from January and a decrease of 36 % against the crop before.
On the occasion of its Annual General Meeting in Fruit Logistica, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. According to the forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, apple production is set to grow by 5,5 % compared to 2024, while the pear crop is expected to decrease by 3,3 %.
On Friday 7 February 2025, the World Apple and Pear Association held its Annual General Meeting. During the Meeting, which took place during Fruit Logistica in Berlin, WAPA presented the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. This report has been compiled based on figures from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand Apples, and South Africa, and therefore provides consolidated data from the six leading Southern Hemisphere countries.
Regarding apples, the Southern Hemisphere 2025 crop forecast suggests an increase of 5,5 % to a total of 4.746.639 t compared to last year (4.499.328 t). South Africa is expected to maintain its lead as the largest producer with 1.474.767 t (+ 3,4 from 2024), followed by Brazil (950.000 t, + 14,2), Chile (920.000 t, + 0,7 %), New Zealand (544.949 t, + 5,6 %), Argentina (537.000 t, + 5,8 %), and Australia (319.923 t, + 5,5 %). With 1.564.499 t, Gala is by far the most popular variety, with its volume growing by 6,8 % from 2024 although 2,3 % below the average of the previous 3 years. Exports are also expected to increase (+ 5,3 %) to reach 1.653.976 t. South Africa (+ 5,5 %) and Chile (+ 1 %), the two largest exporters, are both expected to increase their export volumes, reaching 641.488 t and 507.000 t respectively. Exports from New Zealand should grow by 9,7 % (376.106 t in total), with growing export quantities also forecasted for Argentina (90.000 t, + 8,2 %) and Brazil (36.547 t, + 14,6 %).
Regarding pears, the Southern Hemisphere growers predict a slight decline in the crop (- 3,3 %), bringing the total to 1.446.970 t. Argentina (616.000 t), the largest producing country, is expected to decrease its volumes by 10,9 %. South Africa (551.642 t), Chile (208.025 t), and Australia (62.467 t), on the other hand, are all expected to increase their production by 2,9 %, 3 %, and 4,2 % respectively. Packham’s Triumph remains the most produced variety (601.322 t, despite a 2,7 % decrease compared to 2024), followed by Williams’ bon chrétien pears (288.729 t). Export figures are also expected to decrease from 2024, with a total of 689.155 t (- 4,4 %).
The EU production forecast, which was first published during Prognosfruit 2024, was revised to 10.388.550 t (down 9,7 % from 2023) for apples and 1.792.839 t (+ 5,1%) for pears. European apple stocks stood at 3.687.100 t as of 1 January 2025, which is 4,3 % lower than in 2024. On the other hand, the total of 608.544 t for European pears is 4,5 % above the figures from the previous year. The US apple forecast for 2024 stood at 5.376.986 t (- 2,3 % from 2023), while the pear volumes were updated to 390.128 t (- 21,5 %). Stock figures in the USA were 3,9 % lower than in 2024 for apples (2.053.915 t) and 26 % lower for pears (106.100 t).
Even with the return of rainfall in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro from October/24 on, the scenario for the 2025/26 season continues uncertain. Flowers that opened after the rains were considered satisfactory, however, the development of the crop still depends on weather conditions during the season.
The 2024/25 crop is estimated at 223.14 million 40.8-kilo boxes of oranges, for a decrease of 27.4 % compared to the previous season (2023/24) – data from Fundecitrus.
Weather adversities have been hampering the production for five consecutive seasons, which resulted in restricted inventories of juice.
Cepea calculations indicate that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the 2024/25 crop, ending this season technically zero. Thus, a very positive 2025/26 season will be necessary to have at least a slight recovery.
Not even a decrease of exports in the 2024/25 season will be enough to compensate for the reduction in the volume of fruit processed, which will maintain the demand from the industry at high levels.
Moreover, Florida has been registering a decrease in inventories and may need to import more inputs from Brazil, which helps to sustain quotations in the domestic market. Besides this scenario of limited production and stocks in Brazil, data released on December 10 by the USDA indicate that the 2024/25 orange crop may total 12 million 40.8-kg boxes, downing 20 % (or 3 million boxes) compared to the report released in October (15 million boxes). Besides the citrus greening disease, the production drop is also related to the hurricane Milton in Florida in early October 2024.
For 2025, the conditions reported in the Brazilian citrus grove may support prices throughout the year.
All oranges 12.0 million boxes
The 2024-2025 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 12.0 million boxes, unchanged from the December forecast. If realised, this will be 33 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 5.00 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.00 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The World Citrus Organisation (WCO) has released its annual Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast for the upcoming citrus season (2024-25). The Forecast was released on the occasion of the 2024-2025 Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast Outlook, organised on 15 November by WCO. The Forecast is based on data from Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, the United States, and, for the first time, Portugal. The Forecast shows that citrus production is estimated at 27.297.216 T, which represents an 8,73 % decrease compared to the previous season. The 2024/2025 Forecast is also 5,88 % lower than the average of the last four seasons.
WCO, the World Citrus Organisation, released on 15 November its annual Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast for the upcoming season (2024-25). The preliminary Forecast is based on data from industry associations from the Mediterranean region and the United States. Citrus production for 2024/2025 is estimated at 27.297.216 T, an 8,73 % decrease compared to the previous season. Total citrus exports are expected to follow a similar trend at 8.379.831 T, down by 8,94 % from last season and 9,78 % from the last four seasons’ average.
Philippe Binard, WCO Secretary General, summarised the outcome of the Forecast: “The market insights we received indicate a decrease from last year’s high volumes. This is mainly driven by Turkey returning to regular production levels after last season’s record figures as well as Egypt’s expected decrease.” He added: “Climatic issues, such as late frost, drought, heat waves, or new pests and diseases are constant threats to the quality, colouring, or harvest date for the production. The market will still be impacted by geopolitical instability while consumer demand is under pressure due to limitation of purchasing power and inflation.”
Looking at the country-specific figures for the largest producers in the EU, Spain’s citrus production at 6,18 MT is down by 3,30 % from the previous seasons, led by the 21,01 % decrease in lemons from last year’s record season. The dramatic weather events in Spain are not expected to have a significant impact on the overall supply, which overall remains as predicted. Italy is down by 12,32 % at 2,77 MT, with a 17,51 % decline in oranges, while Greece remains stable at 1,09 MT. In the other Mediterranean countries, Turkey is set to decrease its production by 17,57 % with 4,95 MT, after last season’s record figures. Egypt at 4,35 MT is down by 19,55 % from 2023/2024. Morocco’s production, on the other hand, is expected to grow to 2,14 MT (+11,97 %). Israel’s production is also estimated to recover to 0,56 MT (+18,50 %). Portugal, which contributed to the Forecast for the first time, estimates a 3,37 % decrease in the upcoming season (0,38 MT in total). The production in the United States is expected to shrink to 4,55 MT (-4,28 %), continuing to decrease compared to the average of the previous seasons (-11,52 %).
Philippe Binard added: “WCO is also setting some trends for the expected utilization of citrus for the upcoming season. The Northern Hemisphere citrus exports will decrease by 8,94 % compared to last season to 8,38 MT, while processing will decline to 5,16 MT (-4,15%), leaving 13,76 MT for domestic sales (-10,21 %.). Next April, the WCO will release the 2025 production and export forecast for the Southern Hemisphere.
All oranges 15.0 million boxes
The 2024-2025 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 15.0 million boxes, down 16 percent from last season’s final production. The total includes 6.00 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 9.00 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The Navel orange forecast, at 190,000 boxes, accounts for 3 percent of the non-Valencia total.
The estimated number of bearing trees for all oranges is 30.3 million. Trees planted in 2021 and earlier are considered bearing for this season. Field work for the latest Commercial Citrus Inventory was completed in June 2024. Attrition rates were applied to the results to determine the number of bearing trees used to weigh and expand objective count data in the forecast model.
An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The 2024/25 orange crushing was moving at a good pace at juice processing companies in São Paulo state at the end of September. According to players, the pear orange has been the most processed variety; however, the harvesting pace has been progressing, and the participation of late fruits (such as valencia and natal) has been increasing.
The harvesting is more advanced due to the higher share of fruits from the first blossoming. Data from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) indicate that 64 % of oranges produced in this season account for the first blossoming, higher than the last four crops (36 % of the fruits, at most). Thus, the crushing pace is likely to reduce earlier this year – the second blossoming considers fruits that will be harvested from October on, according to Fundecitrus.
In addition to that, greening (HLB – Huanglongbing), above-average temperatures and the dry weather also accelerate the harvesting. As for greening, one of the symptoms of the disease is the early fruit drop, and producers may harvest in advance to avoid losses. Weather conditions, in turn, accelerate the ripening and may result in early fruit drop.
The share of late fruits in processing activities is likely to be higher in October, but the amount of pear oranges allocated to juice production can still be relevant.
Stocks
Cepea calculations, based on data released by CitrusBR on Sept. 19, indicate that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the current crop (2024/25), ending this season technically zero. Not even the forecast of improvement in industrial yield (due to below-average rainfall) and limited exports will be enough to compensate for the decrease in the volume of fruit processed.
According to CitrusBR, the stocked quantity of the commodity was 116.7 thousand tons at the end of 2023/24 crop (on June 30, 2024), being 37.7 % higher than that on the same period last year, but the third lowest in history (the series has started in 1988/89).
Results of the annual Commercial Citrus Inventory show total citrus acreage is 274,705 acres, down 17 percent from the last annual survey. The net loss of 57,551 acres is 14,505 acres more than what was lost the previous season. New plantings at 4,751 acres are down from the previous season.
All 23 published counties included in the table on page 3 showed decreases in acreage. Hendry County lost the most acreage, down 12,374 acres from the previous season. Polk County leads in citrus acreage with 58,516 acres, followed by Desoto County at 51,800 acres.
Orange acreage is now at 248,028 acres, down 18 percent from the previous season. Valencia acreage now accounts for 63 percent of the total orange acreage, non-Valencia acreage represents 35 percent, and the remaining orange acreage is unidentified …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The Prognosfruit Conference is Europe’s leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, gathering apple and pear experts from across Europe and beyond. Prognosfruit 2024 took place in Budapest, Hungary. During the conference, WAPA (World Apple and Pear Association) released its forecast for the upcoming season of 2024/2025. The forecast for apples is set at 10,2 million t, 11,3 % lower than last year. The pear crop shows a slight recovery from 2023, increasing by 4,9 % to 1,79 million t.
Prognosfruit, the leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, took place in Budapest, Hungary. Prognosfruit 2024 was organised by WAPA in cooperation with FruitVeB (Magyar Zöldség-Gyümölcs Szakmaközi Szervezet). The meeting was opened with an address by István Nagy, Hungarian Minister of Agriculture, currently holding the rotating EU Presidency. He presented the agenda and priorities of the European Council of Agriculture Ministers. This agenda includes the future direction of the agricultural policy in challenging times and the future of the CAP, to secure the competitiveness of the production, and to address the impact of climate change, the sustainability debate, food security, labour issues, and geopolitical uncertainties.
In 2024, the apple production in the EU for the top producing countries contributing to this report is estimated to decrease by 11,3 % compared to last year to a total of 10.207.405 t. This year’s crop is also 13,6 % below the average of the previous 3 years. Regarding the main varieties, Golden Delicious production is set to shrink by 10,2 % to a total of 1.972.514 t. Gala, the second-largest variety, is expected to decrease by 11,1 % (1.350.835 t). Red Delicious is estimated to grow in production (+2,8 %), while Idared’s should be 18,4 % lower than in 2023.
The EU pear crop for 2024, on the other hand, is estimated to grow by 4,9 % compared to last year’s production with a total of 1.790.229 t. This increase is due to the recovery in Italy’s production (+120,5 % compared to 2023) and despite a reduction in the Belgian and Dutch figures (-26,6 % and -8,7 % respectively). In 2024, the production of Conference pears is estimated to decrease by 13,5 %, to 776.128 t. William BC pear production, on the other hand, should grow by 33,8 %. Abate Fetel’s production is forecasted to recover to 124.832 t (+131,8 %)
The market balance will be influenced by a relative steadiness of volume destined for the fresh market due to stable production Western part of the EU in France, Italy, and Spain. On the other hand, the Central and Eastern regions of the European Union were heavily impacted by poor blossoming, late frost, and hail, leading to lower crops in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Austria. This will imply a lower supply for apple processing in the 2024/2025 season.
The outlook for the season is overall positive and should provide opportunities for better returns for the sector, which still faces the challenges of inflation and rising costs of the past months.
After weeks of dry weather, rains were registered in many citrus areas in São Paulo state in mid-July. Although the volume of rainfall was not homogeneous among regions (rains were registered especially in the south and in the southwest of São Paulo state), it brought a certain relief for citrus growers, who were concerned with the dry weather that had already been affecting the trees.
The rainfall was more significant in the southwest of SP state; thus, flowers may start blossoming. In areas where rains were less abundant (or they were not registered), more humidity is necessary for the flowers to blossom.
As for the tahiti lime, the recent rainfall is not likely to increase the supply in this moment, but it may favor the harvest and the quality in the coming weeks.
Juice exports decrease in the 2023/24 season
Brazilian shipments of orange juice dropped in the 2023/24 season (from July 2023 to June 2024), after increasing in the previous crop. Brazil exported 1 million tons, downing 8.1 % compared to the season before (data from Comex Stat). The revenue totaled USD 2.7 billion, for an increase of 25 % in the same comparison. The export decrease is mainly related to the low volume of juice in stocks in Brazil.
Processing activities
The orange processing continues to move at a fast pace in São Paulo state. Some players from the industry surveyed by Cepea say that the crushing is more advanced this season, and that the processing activities of early varieties are likely to reduce this month. Last year, the processing finished only in the second fortnight of September; however, in 2024/25, activities are expected to end in July or in August.
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 18.0 million boxes. The total is comprised of 6.76 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties), unchanged from the June forecast, and 11.2 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up 100,000 boxes from the June forecast. The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production remains at 1.79 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 240,000 boxes are white, and 1.55 million boxes are the red varieties. The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast is unchanged at 450,000 boxes …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
In MY 2023/24, the drop registered in EU orange and mandarin production was not compensated by the larger lemon and grapefruit output. EU citrus production is concentrated in the Mediterranean region. Spain and Italy represent the leading EU citrus producers, followed by Greece, Portugal, and Cyprus.
The EU is a net importer of citrus fruits, with imports largely exceeding exports. A large amount of trade takes place internally, from producing to non-producing EU Member States. With trade through Asian routes becoming increasingly challenging, EU neighboring citrus producers in the Mediterranean Basin (such as Egypt or Turkey) are concentrating their export efforts in the EU. This has been particularly true during the first half of the marketing year, coinciding with the Northern Hemisphere citrus producing season and resulting in increasing competition in the region. EU citrus exports in MY 2023/24, largely concentrated in non-EU Member European countries, are projected to decline only marginally …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
All Oranges 17.9 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 17.9 million boxes. The total includes 6.76 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 11.1 million boxes of Valencia oranges …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 378 million 90-pound boxes (MBx) – standard reference, equivalent to 15.42 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of 7.3 percent compared to previous Post estimate (408 million boxes or 16.5 MMT), primarily due to poor weather conditions that culminated in a more severe drought, as well as impacts from greening. Meanwhile, Post revised the orange weight forecast to 165 grams/5.82 ounces in MY 2023/24, 4.2 percent heavier than Post previous estimate of 158 grams due to the lower production and consequent more room for the fruits to grow. Post revised the total forecast related to the Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent production for MY 2023/24 at 1.06 MMT, a decrease of 8.62 percent vis-à-vis the Post estimate for MY 2022/23 (1.16 MMT), due to downward expected availability of fruit for processing provoked by drought, extremely high temperatures and increase of greening incidence …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The 2024-2025 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt by Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors at FEA-RP/USP1 and FCAV/Unesp2, is 232.38 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90 lbs) each. This production is divided as follows (figures in parentheses indicate the drop in production as compared to the previous crop):
37.12 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties (- 36.10 %);
15.72 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada varieties (- 15.07 %);
70.97 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety (- 27.30 %);
81.58 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties (- 22.45 %);
26.99 million boxes of the Natal variety (- 2.91 %).
Approximately 14.61 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro (- 47.48 %).
Overall, the projected volume represents a significant drop of 24.36 % as compared to the previous crop that totaled 307.22 million boxes, a value close to the average for the last decade …
1Marcos Fava Neves, Part-time Full Professor at FEA-RP/USP. 2José Carlos Barbosa, (voluntary) Full Professor at FCAV/Unesp.
Total orange production for the 2023-2024 crop season ended at 307.22 million boxes1
The 2023-2024 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors from FEA- RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – concluded with 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows:
58.09 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
18.51 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada early-season varieties;
97.62 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
105.20 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
27.80 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.
Of the total, about 27.82 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
The season´s production was 2.22% lower in comparison to the previous crop, which reached 314.21 million boxes and was 0.69% below the initial forecast made in May 2023 …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal. 2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
On 18 April 2024, WCO members gathered for its fifth Annual General Meeting (AGM). During the AGM, WCO presented the consolidated data of the production and export forecasts for the forthcoming Southern Hemisphere citrus season 2024. The preliminary forecast was collected thanks to WCO members in Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Peru, South Africa, and Uruguay. In addition, the Association also marked its first change in leadership with the election of a new Steering Committee that will guide its work in the upcoming two years.
During WCO’s AGM, the preliminary forecast for the upcoming Southern Hemisphere citrus season was presented to representatives from the citrus sector in Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Peru, South Africa, and Uruguay, citrus production is expected to decrease by 0.77 % compared to the previous year, with an estimated production of 24,338,123 tonnes. Exports, however, are expected to continue increasing, with a projected growth of 7.45 % compared to 2023 to reach 4,156,879 tonnes.
Orange production is forecasted to decrease by 5.66% compared to 2023, with 15,478,167 T in total. Soft citrus production is expected to increase significantly (+ 11.58 %, 3,325,829 T in total). A 5.69 % increase is projected for lemon production (3,244,857 tonnes in total), while grapefruit production should decline by 3.89 % (to 532.539 tonnes in total). Limes are forecasted to reach 1,756,731 T, which is 10.57 % above the 2023 figure.
The Southern Hemisphere season has been negatively impacted by difficult climatic conditions, as drought-like conditions in the Southern Hemisphere negatively affected production. However, expectations have improved recently, leading to only a slight decrease in production.
WCO marks its first leadership transition, demonstrating its transition towards full maturity, as demonstrated by the switch in leadership from the two previous Co-Chairs, Justin Chadwick (for the South Hemisphere) and José Antonio García (for the North Hemisphere) to a new team formed by Sergio del Castillo (for the South Hemisphere) and Badr Bennis (for the North Hemisphere), who will guide the work of the Association over the upcoming two years.
The two outgoing Co-Chairs highlighted WCO’s notable achievements since its founding, quadrupling its membership, making WCO a notable forum for citrus sector actors to exchange perspectives and data on matters of common concern. WCO has launched over the last five years new instruments like common data reporting formats and interactive databases for members with the latest production and trade forecast data, dedicated working groups to explore ways to boost the marketing and the promotion of all citrus categories, hosting of physical and online events allowing the sector to discuss and interact, helping to further the knowledge of actors, and liaising with the media to help promote the visibility of the sector.
All oranges 18.8 million boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is lowered 1.00 million boxes to 18.8 million boxes. If realised, this will be 19 percent more than last season’s revised production. The forecast consists of 6.80 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 12.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Brazilian orange juice processors finished 2023 with low stocks. A report released by CitrusBR in March indicates that the volume was 463.94 thousand tons (equivalent to concentrate juice) on December 31, 2023, being 6.7 % higher than that on the same day last year, but the second lowest in history (the series has started in 2011).
Considering that the industry is practically in the offseason period, and, therefore, they have been using stocks to supply the international market, the stocked volume is likely to decrease month after month. This scenario brings concerns about the global supply, since Brazil is the biggest world exporter, and, although there are no forecasts for the next crop (2024/25) yet, the orange production may not increase compared to the current season.
CitrusBR has not projected the ending stocks for the orange juice industry this season. However, data from Cepea indicate that stocks may finish the season higher than in the previous, especially because of the decrease in exports.
Taking 2023/24 initial stocks, of 84.75 thousand tons (CitrusBR), processing of 267 million boxes (discounting the 40 million boxes of the in natura market of the total volume projected by Fundecitrus), the same juice yield of the previous crop and the 6 % decrease of exports (from July/23 to February/24), the amount in stocks by the end of the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) would be only 94.5 thousand tons, 11 % more than in the same period last year.
In spite of the projection of an increase compared to the last season, it is worth noting that 2022/23 ending stocks were the lowest in recent history.
Production
The rainfall in orange producing areas in São Paulo state has been favoring the 2024/25 season. Players surveyed by Cepea say that the good humidity has been positive for the fruits, allowing to anticipate the harvest of early varieties, which have started to be offered in the in natura market in February and may be intensified in March.
Total forecast production of oranges1 remains at 307.22 million boxes
The third forecast for the 2023/24 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on February 09, 2024 by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2, maintains the projection of 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, unchanged in total volume from the previous forecast. This represents a reduction of 0.7 % when compared to the initial forecast for the season. Of the total estimated production, approximately 27.76 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal. 2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
All Oranges 19.8 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 19.8 million boxes, down 700,000 boxes from the January forecast. If realised, this will be 25 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 6.80 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
On the occasion of its Annual General Meeting in Fruit Logistica, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. According to the forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, apple production is set to grow by 1,1 % compared to 2023, while the pear crop is expected to decrease by 2,3 %.
On Friday 9 February 2024, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) held its Annual General Meeting. During the Meeting, which took place during Fruit Logistica in Berlin, WAPA presented the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. This report has been compiled with the support of CAFI (Argentina), APAL (Australia), ABPM (Brazil), Fruits from Chile (Chile), New Zealand Apples and Pears (New Zealand), and Hortgro (South Africa), and therefore provides consolidated data from the six leading Southern Hemisphere countries.
Regarding apples, the Southern Hemisphere 2024 crop forecast suggests an increase of 1,1 % to a total of 4.775.530 t compared to last year (4.725.574 t). South Africa is expected to maintain its lead as the largest producer with 1.396.659 t (+ 4,6 from 2023), followed by Brazil (1.100.000 t, in line with 2023), Chile (912.000 t, – 8,4 %), New Zealand (557.871 t, + 14,7 %), Argentina (501.000 t, – 4,8 %), and Australia (308.000 t, + 5,8 %). With 1.578.148 t, Gala is by far the most popular variety, with its volume remaining in line with 2023 although 11,4 % below the average of the previous 3 years. Exports are also expected to increase (+ 8 %) to reach 1.551.696 t. South Africa (+ 5,1 %) and Chile (+ 5,3 %), the two largest exporters, are both expected to increase their export volumes, reaching 572.280 t and 493.000 t respectively. Exports from New Zealand should grow by 22,2 % (381.729 t in total), while lower export quantities are forecasted for Argentina (70.000 t, – 4,1 %) and Brazil (32.000 t, – 10,6 %).
Regarding pears, the Southern Hemisphere growers predict a slight decline in the crop (- 2,3 %), bringing the total to 1.465.800 t. Argentina (614.000 t), Chile (203.000 t), and Australia (72.000 t) are expected to decrease their production by 6 %, 5,4 %, and 2,7 % respectively. South Africa’s production levels are forecasted to increase to 567.334 t (+ 3,4 % from 2023), as well as New Zealand’s (+ 8,4 %, with 9.066 t in total). Packham’s Triumph remains the most produced variety (508.000 t, with a slight 1,3 % decrease compared to 2023), followed by Williams’ bon chrétien pears (300.082 t). Export figures are expected to be in line with 2023 with a total of 654.323 t.
European apple stocks stood at 3.851.098 t as of 1 January 2024, which is 4,6 % lower than in 2023. Similarly, the total of 582.587 t for European pears is 4,4 % below the figures from the previous year. On the other hand, stock figures are higher in the USA, both for apples (2.138.376 t, + 33,6 %) and for pears (169.474 t, + 14,9 %).
During the Annual General Meeting, Jeff Correa (Pear Bureau Northwest – USA) was elected as the President of the association, taking over from Dominik Woźniak (Society for Promotion of Dwarf Fruit Orchards / Rajpol – Poland). Nick Dicey (Hortgro – South Africa) will join him as the Vice-President. Regarding his new role, Mr Correa commented: “I’m honoured that I have been elected as the next Chairman of WAPA. I look forward to working with the WAPA staff and membership to advance the data sharing, market insights, and explore new avenues that will benefit the organization and its members”. Finally, the Annual General Meeting confirmed that the next edition of Prognosfruit will be held in Budapest, Hungary, on 7-9 August 2024.
Pear orange prices have been moving up since the beginning of the 2023/24 season in the in natura market. In January, values hit the record of Cepea series, which has started in 1994. In the first month of 2024, the price average was BRL 78.89 per 40.8-kilo box, moving up 16% compared to December/23 and 90% in relation to January/23, in real terms (values were deflated by IGP-DI Dec/23). Up until January/24, the highest value in real terms had been BRL 74.92/box, in November 1994.
This scenario of high prices is related to the limited supply. The production in the current crop is on average; however, low orange juice stocks increase the need to buy the raw material, reducing the orange supply in the in natura market.
As for the demand, players surveyed by Cepea say that it is firm, since temperatures are high, favoring the consumption of the fruit.
The pear orange supply is expected to continue limited in February, which is still considered offseason.
Industry
Prices for pear orange and late varieties for the industry had hit a real record in November. Since then, they have been renewing the record level of Cepea series, which has started in 1994. However, values are now moving down, considering the closing of new trades.
The price average for pear orange and late varieties for the industry was BRL 57.68 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered, in January, increasing 10% against the month before and 76% in relation to January 2023, in real terms.
Tahiti lime
Prices finished January at low levels, due to the peak season. The price average in January 2024 was BRL 13.56 per 27-kg box (harvested), for a decrease of 28% compared to the last month of 2023.
The tahiti lime supply is expected to continue high in February, due to rains in January, which can favor both the fruit development and the quality.
All Oranges 20.5 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 20.5 million boxes, unchanged from the December forecast. If realised, this will be 30 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 7.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The Mintec Benchmark price (MBP) for apple juice concentrate medium acidity is currently assessed at EUR 1900/MT, up 8.5 % m-o-m and 28.8 % y-o-y.
Apple production in Europe has been revised by The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) to be no more than 11 million tonnes down 4 % from the initial forecast. Poland, Europe’s top apple producer, is expected by the industry to yield around 3.3 million tonnes in 2023, 700 000 tonnes lower than WAPA’s August forecast.
Processing is reaching completion with most processors finished for the season. Market sources said that Polish apple juice concentrate production will be around 230,000 tonnes. Demand is strong throughout Europe, but supply is limiting trade and subduing the market, according to market sources, most apple juice is concluded under contracts. Many buyers were expecting a drop in price as the processing season came to an end, yet this never occurred.
China has also had a challenging apple season with a lower crop than normal. According to market sources, the industry expects apple juice concentrate production in China to reach approximately 300,000 tonnes in 2023, which is well below typical levels that often exceed 500,000 tonnes. Market sources have said that some of China’s juice has been imported into Turkey and blended domestically. Market sources suggest bullish expectations for the industry in upcoming months as supply and demand dynamics tighten.
All Oranges 20.5 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 20.5 million boxes, unchanged from the October forecast. If realised, this will be 30 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 7.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Total forecast production of oranges1 updated to 307.22 million boxes
The second forecast for the 2023-2024 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP, and FCAV/Unesp2, is 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. Of this total estimated production, approximately 27.60 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region.
In this update, the initial projection is reduced by 2.12 million boxes, corresponding to 0.7 %. This adjustment reflects the balance considering all varieties. The oranges from early varieties, already harvested almost entirely, benefited from abundant rains at the beginning of the year, resulting in a production exceeding the estimated 2.27 million boxes …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal. 2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
The World Citrus Organisation (WCO) has released its annual Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast for the upcoming citrus season (2023-24). The Forecast was released on the occasion of the Global Citrus Outlook conference organized by WCO. The forecast is based on data from Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, and the United States. This year, the Forecast shows that citrus production is projected to reach 28,976,001 T, which represents a 12.2 % increase compared to the previous peak low season. The 2023/2024 forecast is 1.48 % higher than the average of the last 4 seasons.
WCO, the World Citrus Organisation, released its annual Northern Hemisphere citrus forecast for the upcoming season (2023-24). The preliminary Forecast is based on data from industry associations from the Mediterranean region and the United States. Total citrus exports are expected to follow a similar trend at 9,483,770 T, up by 11.4 % from last season and 4.5 % from the last four seasons’ average.
Philippe Binard, WCO Secretary General, summarised the outcome of the Forecast. “The market insights we received indicate a recovery from the low point of last season. The growth is mainly influenced by growth in Turkey and Egypt while other countries are stable or only recorded marginal gains”. Eric Imbert from CIRAD added, “While this year’s forecast shows a recovery with variable conditions across the producing countries and citrus categories, many parameters have to be taken into account for the market analysis”. He added: “Climatic issues, such as late frost, drought, heat waves, or new pests and diseases influenced the quality, colouring, or harvest date for the production. The market will still be impacted by geopolitical instability while consumer demand is under pressure due to limitation of purchasing power and inflation”.
Looking at the country-specific figures for the largest producers in the EU, Spain’s citrus production at 5.9 MT is up by 2 % to previous seasons, with stable soft citrus compared to last year, fewer oranges (- 6 %) and more lemons. Italy is up by 6 % at 2.6 MT, with more oranges (+ 20 %) and less soft citrus and lemons (- 10 % each), while Greece is down by 7 % to 1.1 MT. In the other Mediterranean countries, Turkey is now the market leader with a first production estimate of 6.5 MT (+ 45 %), with strong growth across all categories. The Turkish production forecast could even exceed 7 MT. This results from the increased acreage and productivity, alternance, and favourable climatic conditions. Egypt at 5.4 MT is up by 10 % from the previous season and 15 % from the average of the last 4 years. The main category is oranges with 3,7 MT (+ 5 %) while soft citrus’s double-digit growth should almost reach 1.3 MT. Morocco’s production is expected to partially recover, bouncing back to just over 2 MT, with 1 MT of soft citrus (+ 11 %) and 930,000 T of oranges. Israel’s production is estimated at 365,000 T, but the recent conflict and attack on the country is a source of multiple challenges regarding supply, logistics, and human resources for harvesting and packing. The production in the United States will be up by 1 % at 4.5 MT with more oranges ( + 10 % at 2.4 MT) but less soft citrus (- 2 % at 856,000 T) and even less so for lemon ( – 12 % at 889,000 T).
Philippe Binard added: “WCO is also setting some trends for the expected utilization of citrus for the upcoming season. The global citrus exports will be up by 11 % to reach 9,4 MT, while processing will increase by 8 % to reach 4,7 MT, leaving 14.7 MT for domestic sales (+ 14 %.). Next April, the WCO will release the 2024 production and export forecast for the Southern Hemisphere.
All Oranges 20.5 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is carried forward from October at 20.5 million boxes, up 30 percent from last season’s final production. The total includes 7.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The Navel orange forecast, at 300,000 boxes, accounts for 4 percent of the non-Valencia total …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
All Oranges 20.5 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 20.5 million boxes, up 30 percent from last season’s final production. The total includes 7.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The Navel orange forecast, at 300,000 boxes, accounts for 4 percent of the non-Valencia total.
The estimated number of bearing trees for all oranges is 38.7 million. Trees planted in 2020 and earlier are considered bearing for this season. Field work for the latest Commercial Citrus Inventory was completed in June 2023. Attrition rates were applied to the results to determine the number of bearing trees used to weigh and expand objective count data in the forecast model.
An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
With the first part of this year’s harvesting on its way, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has started revising its annual Apple and Pear Crop Forecast based on the latest insights from its members on the season. The first EU apple estimates, which were released on 3 August 2023 during the Prognosfruit Conference, indicated a 3,3 % decrease compared to last year, to a total of 11.410.681 t. The EU pear crop for 2023 was estimated to decrease by 12,9 % compared to last year’s crop with a total of 1.745.632 t.
The early forecast is released during Prognosfruit, when harvesting is just about to start. The crop can therefore still be impacted by nature and climatic factors up to late October, with either a positive or negative impact on the quantity and quality of the harvest. Historically, these adjustments to the forecast amounted to small percentage variations.
The first updates from Prognosfruit’s network of national producing associations indicate that climate change- related conditions negatively affected the crop in the weeks following the publication of the original estimates. The climatic havoc included droughts, floodings, hail, warm nights, and an increased risk of pests across the EU. In other cases, rains and colder nights have positively impacted the size development and colouring respectively in some producing regions.
Regarding this season, while the apple harvesting is still expected to carry on for several weeks, based on the first regional adjustments (both upward and downward) WAPA estimates that the 2023 apple crop is expected to settle at just below 11 million t (about 4 % lower than the original forecast).
In regard to pears, a further decline of the forecast in Italy, Spain, Belgium, and the Netherlands will lead to a lower crop, even lower than in 2021. The final pear crop is expected to be around 1.720.000 T, about 6 % lower than the initial forecast.
WAPA will continue to monitor closely the harvesting developments in Europe, with the objective of consolidating the most accurate and recent figures into its final Crop Forecast later this year once harvesting is completed.
Orange production is expected to be low in Florida for one more year. According to estimates from the USDA released on October 12th, the harvest of the 2023/24 crop in FL is forecast to total 20.5 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each, of which 7.5 million of early and mid-season varieties and 13 million, valência oranges.
Although that volume is considered low, it is still 30 % higher than that from last season, when two hurricanes hit Florida – Ian, in September 2022, and Nicole, in November 2022. Although hurricane Idalia hit Florida State in late August/23, damages were not that severe.
It is important to mention that this output is not enough to meet the demand from the US, thus, the country is expected to continue to import high amounts of orange juice – and Brazil is the major supplier of the commodity to them. This scenario becomes worse when the local inventories are considered, since they are decreasing year after year.
Brazilian market
Liquidity was high in the Brazilian orange market in the first fortnight of October, despite the holiday on the 12th (Day of Our Lady of Aparecida). According to Cepea collaborators, lower supply and higher demand underpinned prices. On the other hand, for tahiti lime, values dropped, influenced by lower demand and rising supply.
The higher demand for orange juice from the United States raised the Brazilian exports of the commodity in the first two months of the 2023/24 exporting season (July and August). The average price paid for the national juice increased in that period too, influenced by low inventories and the lower output in Brazil. The higher volume exported and the valuation of the Brazilian juice abroad resulted in a significant increase in the revenue of exporters.
According to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), Brazil exported 182.9 thousand tons of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent in July and August, 4% more than the volume shipped in the same period of 2022. Revenue totaled USD 397.9 million, a staggering 20% up in the same comparison.
As for the types of juice exported, shipments of Not-From-Concentrate (NFC) orange juice increased 19 %, and revenue, 25 %; of FCOJ, the volume exported decreased 3 %, while the revenue rose 17 %. The different performances of the exports of these types of juice are linked to the higher demand from the US for NFC juice, whose volume sent to the North-American country rose a staggering 51 %.
The United States
For one more season, the US have been importing orange juice from Brazil. In the first two months of the current season (23/24), the US imported 50.5 thousand tons of FCOJ, an increase of 38 % compared to that in the same period of 2022/23. Revenue totaled USD 113.2 million, 57 % higher, in the same comparison.
Lower orange production in the US because of the 2022/23 crop of Florida – which has decreased 62 %, according to the USDA – and lower supply from Mexico, the second major supplier of orange juice to the US, led the country to raise imports from Brazil.
European Union
To the European Union, Brazil exported, in July and August, 112.6 thousand tons of orange juice, a slight 3 % up from that last season. Revenue totaled USD 241.9 million in the two first months of the season, 14 % higher, in the same comparison.
Crop Estimates
According to data released this week by Fundecitrus, the 2023/24 harvest in the citrus belt (São Paulo State + the Triângulo Mineiro) is expected at 309.34 million boxes of 40.8-kg each, stable compared to that estimated in May but 1.5 % lower than the output from last season. It is important to highlight that this volume is a lot lower than the industry’s needs to meet the demand from abroad and replenish inventories, which are currently very low.
Orange Juice
Global orange juice production for 2022/23 is estimated 9 percent lower to 1.5 million tons (65 degrees brix). Production is down due to reduced fruit available for processing in Brazil, the European Union, Mexico, and the United States. Consumption is mostly flat while exports are estimated down with the reduced available supplies …
The Prognosfruit Conference, Europe’s leading annual event of the apple and pear sector, is right around the corner. On 2-4 August 2023, the Italian region of Trentino (Italy) will welcome an estimated 300 delegates from Europe and beyond. Registration is still open for sector representatives interested in getting the latest updates on the preparations for the upcoming apple and pear season.
Prognosfruit, the leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, will take place in Trentino, Italy, from the 2nd to the 4th of August 2023. Prognosfruit 2023 is organised by WAPA in cooperation this year with APOT (Associazione Produttori Ortofrutticoli Trentini). After more than 20 years, the Italian region of Trentino is ready to welcome back a delegation of 300 leaders from the apple and pear sector from Europe and beyond. Registration is open on the Prognosfruit website until 25 July 2023, along with all the information to book accommodation in Trento.
The complete programme of Prognosfruit 2023 is available on the Prognosfruit website. The three-day event will gather the most important representatives of the sector to learn about the upcoming European apple and pear production and latest market trends, covering as well as the EU neighbourhood and the USA, China, and India. Philippe Binard, Secretary General of WAPA commented: “Prognosfruit is a long-established event for the European apples and pears sector. It has been on the agenda of the sector for 48 years. Besides the session that will reveal the key features for the Northern Hemisphere 2023/2024 apple and pear production forecast and corresponding market analysis, we are pleased this year to complement the programme with insightful new sessions on the demand side with an organic market outlook and a retail panel on adapting to consumer’s expectation. Mr Binard added “Despite on-going challenges of rising costs impacting both the sector and consumers and unpredictable climatic events, the first indicators for both apples and pears look very promising and will lead to interesting exchange during the conference in the middle of one of the most important production places”. To facilitate the debate, simultaneous translation will be available in Italian, English, French, and German.
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