The intensification of the fruit droppage is the main factor that led Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) to decrease the estimate for the 2025/26 season. The second report, released in early September, indicated that the production may reach 306.74 million 40.8 kg boxes in the citrus belt (São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro), 2.5 % less (or -7.86 million boxes) than that indicated in May.

The current report confirms that the fruit droppage is more critical than what had been projected previously. Some areas register losses that are close to 10 %, while others face a percentage up to 45 %. On average, the fruit droppage rate is at 22 %, two percentage points more than the initial forecast.

The Huanglongbing greening (citrus greening disease) hits 47.63 % of the citrus belt. The number of contaminated plants rose 7.4 % this year, reaching roughly 100 thousand (209 thousand were evaluated).

Ending stocks

Orange juice ending stocks (by June/26) may recover in the 2025/26 season, after four consecutive crops at very low volume.

CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released a report in early September about the 2024/25 season: inventories of frozen concentrate orange juice – FCOJ (66º Brix) totaled 146.3 thousand tons, 25.3 % more than in the previous crop. Although it is still low, the volume surprised players, since the fruit supply is scarce, leading orange prices to record levels and imposing difficulties for the industry to produce juice with good ratio. Both restricted quality and high values limited sales to the international market in the last season. According to data from Secex/Comexstat, the volume exported in 2024/25 was at 776.8 thousand tons, downing 22.6 % in relation to the crop before and the smallest since 1997, when the series has started.

Cepea calculations indicate that, due to the progress of the 2025/26 season and the improvement of the juice quality (since pear oranges will join the crushing), inventories may finish the season (June/26) close or higher than 200 thousand tons. If confirmed, it will be the first time in a half decade that the sector will leave the critical volume behind (below 150 thousand tons). However, in order for inventories to reach this level, the consumption needs to return to volumes before 2024/25, the juice productivity needs to be on the average over the last five crops (278 40.8-kg boxes per juice ton) and the industry needs to process at least 260 million boxes.

The 2024/25 crop-year for orange juice exports (from July/24 to June/25) has started in July and shipments, which had been moving down in 2023/24, continued to move at a slow pace. This scenario was already expected, since the supply is limited in Brazil, due to the confirmation of a smaller orange production in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro. At the same time, Brazilian imports of in natura orange and tangerine rose in July.

Orange juice exports

According to Comex Stat, Brazil shipped 53.4 thousand tons of orange juice in July, downing 38 % compared to the same month in 2023. The limited supply boosted quotations. As a result, the revenue totaled USD 198.9 million in July/24, for an increase of 9 % in relation to July/23.

NFC orange juice shipments amounted 164.2 thousand tons in July/24, and the revenue totaled USD 96.45 million, upping 3 % and 55 % against July/23. As for FCOJ exports, the total was 23.6 thousand tons (-59 %), and the revenue was USD 102.4 million (-15 % in one year).

In natura citrus fruits imports

In natura orange imports are at record volumes this year, boosted by the low domestic supply and high prices of national fruits. According to data from Comex Stat, from January to July, 34.8 thousand tons were imported, 87 % up in relation to the same period last year. Expenses amounted USD 24.7 million, 72 % more this year against the previous.

As for tangerines, the volume purchased by Brazil in the partial of 2024 totaled 14.5 thousand tons, 96 % more than in the period from January to July last year. Expenses are at USD 15.65 million (+89 %).

Domestic market

Quotations of citrus fruits surveyed by Cepea may continue to increase in August, sustained by expectations of a limited supply for all varieties. This scenario can be verified despite the orange season peak.

The orange harvesting is moving at a good pace in the citrus belt, but most part of the produce has been allocated to the juice industry. Factories continue with high prices to purchase the raw material, leading many producers that typically operate in the in natura market to allocate oranges for processing activities. Therefore, not even the low demand, due to mild temperatures, was able to press down quotations.

Orange prices were weakened in the Brazilian market in May, due to both the colder weather and high supply at the orchards from SP.

As crushing increases in Brazil, citrus farmers tend to reduce orange supply to the in natura market, aiming to prioritize the trades already closed with processing plants – which may prevent prices from dropping more sharply – many farmers allocated large volumes of early oranges to the in natura segment in May, waiting for crushing to start at the industry.

Between May 2 and 31, pear orange quotes averaged 21.17 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 33.4 % down compared to that between April 1 and 30.

Concerning tahiti lime, besides the higher supply, quotes were pressed down by the low demand, from both the Brazilian and the international markets. In May, tahiti lime quotes averaged 15.21 BRL per 27-kilo box, on tree, 36.8 % down compared to that in April.

The larger crop estimated by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) for the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in 2019/20, at 388.89 million boxes of 40.8 kilos (36 % larger than that from the 2018/19 season), should offset the inventories at processing plants from São Paulo in June 2020, according to Cepea estimates. However, this is not a high supply scenario, since the volume produced in 2018/19 was small and processing plants need to purchase raw material in order to replenish the low inventories forecast for June 2019.

According to CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) estimates from Feb/19, the 2018/19 season should end, in June/19, with the smallest output since June/11, smaller than the strategic amount (of 250 thousand tons). Thus, if these estimates are confirmed, industrial demand may be firm in 2019/20, offsetting higher orange supply – this context has practically been confirmed, considering the anticipated trades closed in late 2018 at firm prices.

According to Cepea’s first estimates, by the end of the 2019/20 season (in June/20), juice inventories may surpass 300 thousand tons (Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice – FCOJ – Equivalent). For this calculation, Cepea considered the initial inventories forecast by CitrusBR (200.6 thousand tons), 300 million boxes crushed (88 million boxes allocated to the in natura market), average yield at 260 boxes for each ton of orange juice and sales at 1.05 million tons.

Thus, although 300 thousand tons are higher than the strategic level stablished, it is important to consider that production has oscillated in the citrus belt from year to year, with periods of larger volumes followed by years of low production. In this scenario, taking into consideration that the 2020/21 crop may be smaller, inventories should be kept stable at processing plants, aiming to avoid major decreases in the global supply.

PRICES PAID TO CITRUS GROWERS IN 2019/20 – Despite the larger volume forecast for the citrus belt, growers’ revenue should be positive in 2019/20, due to high productivity (which may reduce the cost per unit). Besides, much of the output has been purchased at the same price levels from 2018/19, between 20 and 22 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at processing plants (counting or not on a participation additional in the juice selling price in the international market).