The 2026/27 orange crop in São Paulo and in the Triângulo Mineiro and Southwest of Minas Gerais is estimated at 255.2 million 40.8-kilo boxes, 13 % lower than in the previous season, according to the first estimate released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund). The smaller Brazilian supply is expected to ease part of the pressure on global orange juice inventories in the 2025/26 season.
In spite of this, Cepea researchers note that any potential increase in international prices is likely to depend more on demand in major consuming markets than on the production adjustment itself. The sector enters the 2026/27 season under a different scenario from that observed in 2024, when limited supply drove up prices in the international market amid low inventory levels.
From July 2025 to April 2026, Brazilian exports of orange juice totaled 691.99 thousand tons (in volume equivalent to concentrated juice at 66 Brix), up 1.74 % compared to the same period of the previous season, according to data from Secex. Revenue, in turn, fell by 27.4 %.
As for 2026/27, the international market is likely to remain dependent on the demand from Europe and the U.S.
1 – 2026-2027 orange crop forecast
The 2026-2027 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on May 08, 2026, by Fundecitrus in cooperation with full professor (retired) at FCAV/Unesp1, is 255.2 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90 lbs) each. This production is divided as follows (figures in parentheses indicate the variation in production as compared to the previous crop):
- 47.38 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties (+2.4 %);
- 19.25 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada varieties (+9.1 %);
- 83.20 million boxes of the Pera variety (-4.8 %);
- 80.71 million boxes of the Valencia and Folha Murcha varieties (-22.8 %);
- 24.66 million boxes of the Natal variety (-33.5 %).
Approximately 26.77 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro (+4.2 %).
Overall, the projected volume represents a decrease of 12.9% compared to the previous crop season, whose final number was 292.94 million boxes, maintaining production within a small range of the last ten years, as shown in Graph 1. Compared to the average volume produced in the last decade, the current crop shows a decrease of 14.6%.
The outlook for a smaller crop compared to the previous crop season is due to the lower number of fruits per tree and to the increase in the premature fruit drop rate, which outweigh the positive effect of the higher fruit weight and the larger number of bearing trees …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1José Carlos Barbosa, full professor (retired) at FCAV/Unesp.
Total orange production1 for the 2025-2026 crop season ended at 292.94 million boxes
The 2025-2026 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with full professor (retired) from FCAV/Unesp2, concluded with 292.94 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows:
- 46.23 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
- 17.65 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada early-season varieties;
- 87.44 million boxes of the Pera mid-season variety;
- 104.53 million boxes of the Valencia and Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
- 37.09 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.
Of the total, about 25.69 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
Production this season was 26.9 % higher compared to the previous crop, which reached 230.87 million boxes, and 6.9 % lower than the initial forecast released in May 2025. Climatic and phytosanitary factors, within the context of a more delayed harvest, contributed to higher fruit drop rates and to reduced fruit weight compared to the initial forecast. The 2025-2026 crop was marked by a later harvest pace compared to previous crop seasons due to the high proportion of second-bloom fruit and to harvesting at optimal maturity. In this context, most of the Pera variety was expected to be harvested after the onset of heavier spring rains; however, nearly half of its production was harvested under dry conditions, as rainfall only intensified midway through October. Moreover, below-average rainfall throughout the period also adversely impacted the weight of the late varieties Valencia, Folha Murcha, and Natal, which were harvested through mid-January and did not reach the expected weight of the initial forecast. Furthermore, the premature fruit drop rate in this crop reached the highest level observed over the past 11 crop seasons, driven by increased greening severity, higher incidence of citrus leprosis, water deficit, and the occurrence of strong wind gusts throughout the production cycle …
Please download the complete forecast here.
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
All oranges 12.2 million boxes
The 2025-2026 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is increased 200,000 boxes to 12.2 million boxes. If realised, this will be 1 percent less than last season’s revised production. The forecast consists of 4.70 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.50 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 7-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, the 2022-2023 season which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole, and the 2024-2025 season which was affected by Hurricane Milton. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the complete forecast here.
Citrus farmers are concerned about rising production costs. The sharpest price increase in March was observed for oil-related products, such as nitrogen fertilisers and diesel oil, due to ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran. This situation has disrupted oil production and constrained the global trade flow, leading to higher maritime freight costs.
Phosphate fertiliser prices have also risen, while potassium fertiliser quotations have seen only minimal increases.
Data from the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) show that diesel oil prices increased 15.4 % up to mid-March. Considering that, at the moment, the main mechanical activity performed by citrus growers is spraying, this rise in diesel prices could account for a 5.8 % increase in costs for the crop just from spraying alone, disregarding other activities and freight. This situation is concerning, as profit margins are expected to be tight in the next orange harvest.
Therefore, geopolitical developments in the coming weeks are concerning, as they could impact crop investments.
The 2025/26 orange harvesting has been progressing well – up to mid-January, only 13 % of the crop remained to be harvested. The new estimate released in mid-February by Fundecitrus showed a slight change compared to the previous report, issued on December/25.
Fundecitrus says that the citrus belt in São Paulo and in Triângulo/Southwest of Minas Gerais is likely to produce 292.6 million 40.8 kg boxes, downing 0.7 % against the previous report, but 26.7 % above that verified in the 2024/25 crop.
The slightly smaller projection compared to the previous is linked to adjustments in the production of late fruits, such as valência and folha murcha, which are likely to amount 104.27 million boxes, 1.8 % less than that reported in December.
As the crop is nearing the end (Fundecitrus says that there are only 13 % of the crop left to be harvested), players surveyed by Cepea indicate that some units may finish processing activities this month. In addition to that, since the 2025/26 season is close to the end, players are focusing on the development of the 2026/27 crop.
Total orange production1 is updated at 292.60 million boxes
The third update of the 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with professor (retired) from FCAV/Unesp2, is 292.60 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90-pound box). In comparison to the May forecast, the crop season is expected to yield 22 million fewer boxes, a decline of 7%. Compared to the last forecast released in December, which projected 294.81 million boxes, the new estimate indicates a 0.7% reduction, corresponding to a decrease of 2.21 million boxes. This downward trend is due to the estimated smaller average size of late variety oranges, namely Valencia, Folha Murcha, and Natal. It is also estimated that approximately 25.73 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
From May 2025 to January 2026, the average accumulated rainfall in the citrus belt was 862 millimeters, which represents a 10% deficit in relation to the historical average (1991-2020), …
Please download the complete forecast here.
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera, Valencia, Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of Exact Sciences, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
Heavy rains in January affected the citrus market, especially the in natura segment. High humidity increased the incidence of fungus on trees, leading fruits to drop and affecting the quality. Part of the production that is sent to the industry ends up lost, while another share hits the market with low quality, pressing down quotations in a scenario of high supply.
In spite of the high humidity, January ended with relative stable prices of pear oranges for the industry. Players say that processing activities have been reducing gradually in some units in São Paulo, while other have directed part of their capacity to crush the tahiti lime.
The price average in January was at BRL 37.17 per 40.8-kilo box, stable in relation to December (BRL 37.05/box).
As for the tahiti lime, the high supply continues to press down values. Players surveyed by Cepea say that, due to low quotations verified in previous weeks, producers keep fruits on trees for longer, and they are likely to fall.
The price average for the tahiti lime is at BRL 22.97 per 27.2-kilo box in the last week of January, downing 9 % compared to that in the period before. Quotations for the fruit to export were at BRL 26.71 per 27.2-kilo box, for a decrease of 8 %.
Pear orange prices to the industry started 2025 at high levels (BRL 88 per 40.8-kilo box in the first weeks of the year), influenced by the limited supply and the firm demand for fruits, which had presented good quality up until then.
However, prices dropped in the following months. Inventories of orange juice with lower quality and the low demand for new orange batches from the industry led quotations offered by citrus growers to decrease in the second quarter of the year. Moreover, in May, Fundecitrus projected a higher crop in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro, at 314.6 million 40.8-kg boxes.
The high rate of fruit droppage has been in the spotlight since the beginning of the season. Fundecitrus indicated in December that the rate had reached 23 % due to diseases such as the citrus greening and unfavorable weather conditions. Therefore, Fundecitrus reduced the production estimate for the 2025/26 season to 294.81 million boxes.
In addition to that, the sector faced months of uncertainties about the possible US tariff on orange juice imports from Brazil. However, in July, the US government decided to exempt the national product from the extra tariff of 40 %, but keeping the 10 % tax, which was in effect until November 10, 2025. Currently, only the USD 415/ton tariff is in effect.
In spite of that, the performance of exports in the beginning of the season (between July and November 2025) was still below that registered in the same period of the season before.
In this scenario of a delayed crop and of contracts established later and at smaller volumes, the pressure on values was intensified in the last quarter of the year.
All oranges 12.0 million boxes
The 2025-2026 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 12.0 million boxes down 2 percent from last season’s final production. The total includes 4.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.50 million boxes of Valencia oranges.
The estimated number of bearing trees for all oranges is 20.7 million. Trees planted in 2022 and earlier are considered bearing for this season. Field work for the latest Commercial Citrus Inventory was completed in June 2025. Attrition rates were applied to the results to determine the number of bearing trees used to weigh and expand objective count data in the forecast model …
Please download the complete forecast here.
Total orange production1 is updated at 294.81 million boxes
The second update of the 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on December 10, 2025, by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with professor (retired) from FCAV/Unesp2, is 294.81 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90-pound box). In comparison to the May forecast, the crop season is expected to yield 19.79 million fewer boxes, a decline of 6.3 %. Compared to the last forecast released in September, which projected 306.74 million boxes, the new estimate indicates a 3.9 % reduction, corresponding to a decrease of 11.9 million boxes. This downward trend is due to the estimated smaller average size of oranges and a higher rate of premature fruit drop. It is also estimated that approximately 25.83 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
When the last updated forecast was disclosed in September, the harvest pace indicated that a significant portion of the Pera variety crop would be harvested after the more intense rains expected during spring. However, rainfall in September …
Please download the complete forecast here.
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera, Valencia, Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of Exact Sciences, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
Rains in the second half of November favoured most producing regions in the citrus belt (São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro), supporting development of the 2026/27 crop and improving fruit quality for the 2025/26 season.
However, in several areas, rainfall came with strong winds and hail, damaging trees, fruits and flowers. Players surveyed by Cepea say the frequency of extreme weather events this year is a concern.
Prices
Despite the good fruit quality, in natura orange prices dropped in late November, pressured by the devaluation observed in the industry. Between November 24 and 27, pear orange in the spot market averaged BRL 38.44 per 40.8-kg box, down 1.82 % compared to that in the period before. In the in natura market, pear orange quotations decreased 5.29 % this week compared to the previous, closing at BRL 53.30 per 40.8-kg box. In the accumulated of the month, prices moved down 14.7 %.
Tariffs
The export sector of citrus products gained an important tariff relief in late November. The government from the United States exempted the additional tariff of 10 % for the orange juice. As for byproducts (essential oils, therapeutic byproducts and orange pulp), the 10 % tax continues, but they were exempted from the 40 % tariff.
This is good news for the sector, since it faces a slow pace of OJ shipments, especially to Europe. The European Union has been purchasing less than the usual. Therefore, the reduction of costs to send the product to the US market may favor sales of the Brazilian product, compensating the smaller demand from Europe.
On the occasion of the Pipfruit Market Observatory of the European Commission, WAPA (World Apple and Pear Association) presented a first update of its 2025/2026 European apple and pear forecast initially released at Prognosfruit in August 2025. The revised figures show a moderate increase in both apple and pear production for this season to reach, respectively, close to 11 million T for apples and slightly above 1.8 million T for pears. This is mainly due to favourable late-summer weather conditions that improved fruit sizes and colouring for mid and late-season varieties. While production is slightly higher than initially expected, total volumes remain well below the full potential of 13 million tonnes for apples and more than 2 million tonnes for pears, confirming for pipfruit a “medium to low” average European 2025/2026 season crop.
This provisional updated estimate brings the EU apple crop from the initial 10.4 million T released in August to reach between 10.9 and 11 million tonnes, about 5 % higher than the initial August forecast. It ranks this year’s crop as the 6th of the decade, and well below the peak crop of 2018 at 13.2 million tonnes. The EU pear crop is now estimated at just over 1.8 million tonnes, slightly higher than August expectations. This marks for pears the third consecutive low crop, and the fourth lowest of the decade, far from the 2010 peak of 2.7 million tonnes.
Following challenging spring conditions with late frost, weak pollination, and early-summer drought, more favourable weather conditions were recorded in September with rains and appropriate temperatures that contributed to improved yields across several Member States. The main revisions include an indicative increase for Poland (+400,000 tonnes), Germany (+60,000 to 80,000 tonnes), Belgium (+20,000 tonnes), the Netherlands (+10,000 tonnes), and France (+20,000 tonnes). Several contributors of Prognosfruit are still updating their figures, including Italy and Austria, as well as the aforementioned countries, upon the final harvesting later in November. For pears, an increase is mainly observed in Belgium (+25,000 T), the Netherlands (+10,000 T), and France (+10,000 T), an increase partially offset by a small further decline in Italy (-9,000 T).
WAPA emphasises that the updated figures reflect normal forecast adjustments as weather developments up to the end of harvesting in November can significantly influence fruit size and yields estimated in August. The organisation underlines that such revisions are part of a transparent and adaptive forecasting process.
“While this year’s crop is slightly higher than initially anticipated, the European apple and pear market remains well balanced,” said Philippe Binard on behalf of Prognosfruit. He added, “Production continues to be below full potential, stocks are clean, and new export openings are providing a positive outlook for the season”.
Although early sales in several countries were slowed by abundant garden production and cautious consumer demand, the market is now moving into full speed, supported by healthy domestic consumption and emerging export opportunities. The EU market observatory, building on some of the findings released at Prognosfruit, underlined some positive parameters for the season development. It is reminded that the season had a clean start with no overlapping stocks nor significant imports. While the intra-EU trade dynamic is not yet at its full potential in key markets such as Germany due to strong local availability, the outlook for intra-EU trade always remains as a safe bank for the sector, next to local sales. Some quality challenges have led to higher volumes being directed to the processing sector, balancing well the fresh market potential and tightening the stocks outlook for the fresh market later in the season. Despite geopolitical headwinds, export volumes are now already in full swing with volume up 20 % year-on-year, buoyed by lower production in Turkey. This is creating opportunities for the EU exporters in the Middle East, India and North Africa (Egypt, Libya) and as well as elsewhere in Southeast Asia or Latin America, despite some exchange rate disadvantages for EU traders, some ongoing market access restrictions, and logistics constraints in the Red Sea.
The apple and pear sector will need to continue mitigating some challenges for positive development, including securing satisfactory prices to fully recover rising production costs, securing a diversified toolbox for yield performance, and addressing emerging biosecurity risks under climate change. It will remain key to stimulate consumption uptake with evolving consumer patterns, availability of appropriate packaging types, and increased competition from other agrifood products and the growth of other fruit categories on supermarket shelves.
Apples and pears remain the lead category in the fruit basket assortment and have a diversity of varieties to offer to consumers throughout the season. The category needs to be properly stimulated by the future vision for agriculture in the EU and the upcoming CAP reform to keep the sector competitive and attractive for the generational shift.
More about the future outlook for the apple and pear sector will be on the agenda of Prongnosfruit 2026, which will take place in Constance (Germany) on 5-7 August 2026.
The Southeastern region in Brazil, especially citrus areas in São Paulo, Paraná and part of Minas Gerais, registered rains in the first week of spring. Although this scenario brings optimism, since it favours the upcoming blossoming, strong winds caused fruit droppage. Players surveyed by Cepea say that the region of Avaré (São Paulo) was one of the most affected areas.
The return of the rainfall is extremely important for the 2026/27 blossoming to be in the normal standard, which was not verified last year – after a warm and dry winter, rains returned more consistently after October, which delayed the current crop.
The intensification of the fruit droppage is the main factor that led Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) to decrease the estimate for the 2025/26 season. The second report, released in early September, indicated that the production may reach 306.74 million 40.8 kg boxes in the citrus belt (São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro), 2.5 % less (or -7.86 million boxes) than that indicated in May.
The current report confirms that the fruit droppage is more critical than what had been projected previously. Some areas register losses that are close to 10 %, while others face a percentage up to 45 %. On average, the fruit droppage rate is at 22 %, two percentage points more than the initial forecast.
The Huanglongbing greening (citrus greening disease) hits 47.63 % of the citrus belt. The number of contaminated plants rose 7.4 % this year, reaching roughly 100 thousand (209 thousand were evaluated).
Ending stocks
Orange juice ending stocks (by June/26) may recover in the 2025/26 season, after four consecutive crops at very low volume.
CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released a report in early September about the 2024/25 season: inventories of frozen concentrate orange juice – FCOJ (66º Brix) totaled 146.3 thousand tons, 25.3 % more than in the previous crop. Although it is still low, the volume surprised players, since the fruit supply is scarce, leading orange prices to record levels and imposing difficulties for the industry to produce juice with good ratio. Both restricted quality and high values limited sales to the international market in the last season. According to data from Secex/Comexstat, the volume exported in 2024/25 was at 776.8 thousand tons, downing 22.6 % in relation to the crop before and the smallest since 1997, when the series has started.
Cepea calculations indicate that, due to the progress of the 2025/26 season and the improvement of the juice quality (since pear oranges will join the crushing), inventories may finish the season (June/26) close or higher than 200 thousand tons. If confirmed, it will be the first time in a half decade that the sector will leave the critical volume behind (below 150 thousand tons). However, in order for inventories to reach this level, the consumption needs to return to volumes before 2024/25, the juice productivity needs to be on the average over the last five crops (278 40.8-kg boxes per juice ton) and the industry needs to process at least 260 million boxes.
Total orange production1 is updated at 306.74 million boxes
The first update of the 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on September 10, 2025, by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with professor (retired) from FCAV/Unesp2, is 306.74 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90-pound box). Compared with the May estimate, the crop season is expected to yield 7.86 million fewer boxes, a decline of 2.5 %, due to a higher projected rate of premature fruit drop. Analysing by maturity group, the early-season varieties decrease by approximately 6.1 %, the mid-season (Pera) by 1.2 %, and the late-season varieties by 1.6 %. It is also estimated that approximately 25.84 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
According to Climatempo Meteorologia, from May to August 2025 the average accumulated rainfall in the citrus belt was 94 millimeters, which corresponds to a 33 % deficit in relation to the historical average (1991- 2020) …
Please download the complete forecast here.
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera, Valencia, Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of Exact Sciences, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
The „2025/2026 Tree Inventory and Orange Crop Forecast“ presents the results of the eleventh survey on the tree inventory of São Paulo and west- southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt carried out by Fundecitrus in cooperation with full professor from the department of Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp from August 2024 to May 2025. The report is based on full remapping and in-field data collection from August 2024 to May 2025 and reflects a notable rebound in orange production following years of challenges …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com
The new crop estimate released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in May indicates that the orange production in the citrus belt in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro and in the southwest of Minas Gerais is likely to total 314.6 million 40.8-kg boxes in 2025/26, a sharp rise of 36.2 % compared to the crop before. This increase brings a relief for the sector, especially because of the current scenario of limited orange juice stocks. By July/25, the volume in stock would be below the level that is considered strategic.
In case processing activities follow the harvesting increase at the same proportion, inventories by July 2026 are likely to be close to a safer volume to supply the global market. As a result, prices paid to producers, which hit records in the crop before (especially in October 2024), may not remain at the same levels. Thus, quotations are likely to continue above the historical average.
Among the aspects that justify the increase of the production estimate are the higher number of producing trees and the improvement of the weather during the cycle. Fundecitrus says that the number of producing trees upped 7.5 % compared to the previous season, changing from 169.9 million to 182.7 million trees.
All Oranges 11.6 Million Boxes
The 2024-2025 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is up less than 1 percent at 11.6 million boxes. If realised, this will be 36 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 4.58 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.05 million boxes of Valencia oranges …
Please download the complete forecast here.
2025-2026 orange crop forecast
The 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on May 09, 2025, by Fundecitrus in cooperation with full professor at FCAV/Unesp1, is 314.60 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90 lbs) each. This production is divided as follows (figures in parentheses indicate the variation in production as compared to the previous crop):
- 49.48 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties (+ 31.49 %);
- 19.86 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada varieties (+ 27.31 %);
- 90.51 million boxes of the Pera variety (+ 21.16 %);
- 114.58 million boxes of the Valencia and Folha Murcha varieties (+ 50.78 %);
- 40.17 million boxes of the Natal variety (+ 49.05 %).
Approximately 26.93 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro (+ 80.3 %).
Overall, the projected volume represents a significant increase of 36.27 % compared to the previous crop season, whose final number was 230.87 million boxes, bringing production back into the average range of the last ten years, …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1José Carlos Barbosa, (voluntary) Full Professor at FCAV/Unesp.
Total orange production1 for the 2024-2025 crop season ended at 230.87 million boxes
The 2024-2025 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with full professor from FCAV/Unesp2, concluded with 230.87 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows:
- 7.63 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin e Rubi early-season varieties;
- 15.60 million boxes of Valência Americana, Seleta, Pineapple e Alvorada early-season varieties;
- 74.70 million boxes of Pera Rio mid-season variety;
- 75.99 million boxes of Valência e Valência Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
- 26.95 million boxes of Natal late-season variety.
Of the total, about 14.94 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
This season production was 0.65% below the initial estimate released in May 2024 (232.38 million boxes) and 24.85% below the previous crop season, which totaled 307.22 million boxes, a production level in line with the historical average. The 2024-2025 crop was confirmed as the second smallest in the last 37 years, considered atypical due to adverse weather conditions, marked by dry weather, high temperatures, the extremely late and expressive fourth bloom, along with the incidence of greening …
Please download the complete forecast here.
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
All Oranges 11.6 Million Boxes
The 2024-2025 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is unchanged at 11.6 million boxes. If realised, this will be 36 percent less than last season’s revised production. The forecast consists of 4.60 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.00 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the complete forecast here.
As processing companies reduced the pace of activities of oranges in early April, part of units was then focused on crushing the tahiti lime. According to players surveyed by Cepea, this scenario helps to flow non-standard fruits to processing activities, reducing the volume in the in natura market.
Due to the higher demand from the industry, quotations were firm. In the first three months of 2025, prices paid by the industry for the tahiti lime averaged BRL 25.06 per 40.8-kg box, 55 % above that in the same period last year and the highest considering the first quarter since 2019 (BRL 29.95/box), in real terms (IGP-DI March/25).
From April 7-10, the price average of the fruit delivered at the industry was at BRL 26.00 per box, upping 13.04 % compared to that verified in the last week of March. This scenario ends up keeping the price level close to BRL 30/box in the in natura market. Tahiti lime prices are at BRL 29.22 per 27.2-kg box between April 7 and 10, downing 2.2 % compared to the week before.
Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released its report of the 2024/25 season on April 10, indicating that the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) harvested 230.87 million 40.8-kg boxes, for a decrease of 0.65 % (or 1.51 million boxes) in relation to the first estimate (May/24), but upping 1.03 % (or 2.35 million boxes) compared to that projected in February/25. In relation to the previous crop, the decrease is by 24.85 %.
The increase of the orange size, especially fruits from the fourth blossoming, and the decrease of the fruit drop rate boosted the new estimate for the 2024/25 output compared to the previous projection.
Data released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in February indicate that the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) may harvest 228.52 million 40.8-kg boxes, moving down 1.7 % (or 3.86 million boxes) compared to the first estimate, released in May/24, but upping 2.4 % (or 5.38 million boxes) in relation to the report from December/24.
Besides the good development of the fourth blossoming, Fundecitrus indicates that the rainfall has favored the production.
The higher supply against the previous crop brings a certain relief, but the sector still faces the low quality of the fruits and the low industrial productivity.
This scenario of higher supply and lower quality has been pressing quotations down. For the industry, which has been purchasing fruits at BRL 82.88/box, on average, in the second week of February, the decrease is by 3.63 % against the week before.
Florida
The orange production in Florida has also been facing challenges. The USDA indicated this month that the production in the state is likely to reach 11.5 million boxes, downing 500 thousand boxes compared to the estimate from January and a decrease of 36 % against the crop before.
On the occasion of its Annual General Meeting in Fruit Logistica, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. According to the forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, apple production is set to grow by 5,5 % compared to 2024, while the pear crop is expected to decrease by 3,3 %.
On Friday 7 February 2025, the World Apple and Pear Association held its Annual General Meeting. During the Meeting, which took place during Fruit Logistica in Berlin, WAPA presented the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. This report has been compiled based on figures from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand Apples, and South Africa, and therefore provides consolidated data from the six leading Southern Hemisphere countries.
Regarding apples, the Southern Hemisphere 2025 crop forecast suggests an increase of 5,5 % to a total of 4.746.639 t compared to last year (4.499.328 t). South Africa is expected to maintain its lead as the largest producer with 1.474.767 t (+ 3,4 from 2024), followed by Brazil (950.000 t, + 14,2), Chile (920.000 t, + 0,7 %), New Zealand (544.949 t, + 5,6 %), Argentina (537.000 t, + 5,8 %), and Australia (319.923 t, + 5,5 %). With 1.564.499 t, Gala is by far the most popular variety, with its volume growing by 6,8 % from 2024 although 2,3 % below the average of the previous 3 years. Exports are also expected to increase (+ 5,3 %) to reach 1.653.976 t. South Africa (+ 5,5 %) and Chile (+ 1 %), the two largest exporters, are both expected to increase their export volumes, reaching 641.488 t and 507.000 t respectively. Exports from New Zealand should grow by 9,7 % (376.106 t in total), with growing export quantities also forecasted for Argentina (90.000 t, + 8,2 %) and Brazil (36.547 t, + 14,6 %).
Regarding pears, the Southern Hemisphere growers predict a slight decline in the crop (- 3,3 %), bringing the total to 1.446.970 t. Argentina (616.000 t), the largest producing country, is expected to decrease its volumes by 10,9 %. South Africa (551.642 t), Chile (208.025 t), and Australia (62.467 t), on the other hand, are all expected to increase their production by 2,9 %, 3 %, and 4,2 % respectively. Packham’s Triumph remains the most produced variety (601.322 t, despite a 2,7 % decrease compared to 2024), followed by Williams’ bon chrétien pears (288.729 t). Export figures are also expected to decrease from 2024, with a total of 689.155 t (- 4,4 %).
The EU production forecast, which was first published during Prognosfruit 2024, was revised to 10.388.550 t (down 9,7 % from 2023) for apples and 1.792.839 t (+ 5,1%) for pears. European apple stocks stood at 3.687.100 t as of 1 January 2025, which is 4,3 % lower than in 2024. On the other hand, the total of 608.544 t for European pears is 4,5 % above the figures from the previous year. The US apple forecast for 2024 stood at 5.376.986 t (- 2,3 % from 2023), while the pear volumes were updated to 390.128 t (- 21,5 %). Stock figures in the USA were 3,9 % lower than in 2024 for apples (2.053.915 t) and 26 % lower for pears (106.100 t).
Even with the return of rainfall in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro from October/24 on, the scenario for the 2025/26 season continues uncertain. Flowers that opened after the rains were considered satisfactory, however, the development of the crop still depends on weather conditions during the season.
The 2024/25 crop is estimated at 223.14 million 40.8-kilo boxes of oranges, for a decrease of 27.4 % compared to the previous season (2023/24) – data from Fundecitrus.
Weather adversities have been hampering the production for five consecutive seasons, which resulted in restricted inventories of juice.
Cepea calculations indicate that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the 2024/25 crop, ending this season technically zero. Thus, a very positive 2025/26 season will be necessary to have at least a slight recovery.
Not even a decrease of exports in the 2024/25 season will be enough to compensate for the reduction in the volume of fruit processed, which will maintain the demand from the industry at high levels.
Moreover, Florida has been registering a decrease in inventories and may need to import more inputs from Brazil, which helps to sustain quotations in the domestic market. Besides this scenario of limited production and stocks in Brazil, data released on December 10 by the USDA indicate that the 2024/25 orange crop may total 12 million 40.8-kg boxes, downing 20 % (or 3 million boxes) compared to the report released in October (15 million boxes). Besides the citrus greening disease, the production drop is also related to the hurricane Milton in Florida in early October 2024.
For 2025, the conditions reported in the Brazilian citrus grove may support prices throughout the year.
All oranges 12.0 million boxes
The 2024-2025 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 12.0 million boxes, unchanged from the December forecast. If realised, this will be 33 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 5.00 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.00 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
High temperatures in São Paulo state in early October reinforced producers’ concerns, since this scenario can affect both fruits that are on the trees (from the current season, 2023/24) and the production of the next crop (2024/25), especially non-irrigated areas. Therefore, in mid-October, citrus growers were waiting for the rainfall in major producing regions.
So far, the biggest challenge for the current season (2023/24) has been the fact that fruits have wilted, which affects directly the quality, according to players surveyed by Cepea. In normal conditions, this quality loss would press quotations down; however, due to the limited supply this season, prices remain firm.
As for the 2024/25 crop, scenarios are distinct between irrigated and non-irrigated areas. In irrigated regions in São Paulo state, the fruit development is more advanced, but producers were still concerned with high temperatures.
On the other hand, most trees in non-irrigated areas have not blossomed yet. Thus, the return of rains is essential to mitigate the lack of soil humidity and encourage the blossoming.
All oranges 15.0 million boxes
The 2024-2025 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 15.0 million boxes, down 16 percent from last season’s final production. The total includes 6.00 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 9.00 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The Navel orange forecast, at 190,000 boxes, accounts for 3 percent of the non-Valencia total.
The estimated number of bearing trees for all oranges is 30.3 million. Trees planted in 2021 and earlier are considered bearing for this season. Field work for the latest Commercial Citrus Inventory was completed in June 2024. Attrition rates were applied to the results to determine the number of bearing trees used to weigh and expand objective count data in the forecast model.
An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The 2024/25 orange crushing was moving at a good pace at juice processing companies in São Paulo state at the end of September. According to players, the pear orange has been the most processed variety; however, the harvesting pace has been progressing, and the participation of late fruits (such as valencia and natal) has been increasing.
The harvesting is more advanced due to the higher share of fruits from the first blossoming. Data from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) indicate that 64 % of oranges produced in this season account for the first blossoming, higher than the last four crops (36 % of the fruits, at most). Thus, the crushing pace is likely to reduce earlier this year – the second blossoming considers fruits that will be harvested from October on, according to Fundecitrus.
In addition to that, greening (HLB – Huanglongbing), above-average temperatures and the dry weather also accelerate the harvesting. As for greening, one of the symptoms of the disease is the early fruit drop, and producers may harvest in advance to avoid losses. Weather conditions, in turn, accelerate the ripening and may result in early fruit drop.
The share of late fruits in processing activities is likely to be higher in October, but the amount of pear oranges allocated to juice production can still be relevant.
Stocks
Cepea calculations, based on data released by CitrusBR on Sept. 19, indicate that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the current crop (2024/25), ending this season technically zero. Not even the forecast of improvement in industrial yield (due to below-average rainfall) and limited exports will be enough to compensate for the decrease in the volume of fruit processed.
According to CitrusBR, the stocked quantity of the commodity was 116.7 thousand tons at the end of 2023/24 crop (on June 30, 2024), being 37.7 % higher than that on the same period last year, but the third lowest in history (the series has started in 1988/89).
Most part of São Paulo state registered high temperatures in early September. This scenario brought concerns for citrus growers, who may face another year of significant heat waves.
Climatempo says that heat waves in September have become more common in most part of Brazil; however, they have been more intense and are lasting longer.
2024/25 CROP – São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro may harvest 215.78 million 40.8-kg boxes in the 2024/25 orange season, according to data released by Fundecitrus on September 10. The volume may be 30 % less than in the crop before, which registered average production, and below the first projection, of 232.38 million boxes.
The decrease is related to the smaller fruit size, due to the dry and warm weather. The weather also accelerated the harvesting pace, since it influenced the ripening. More than half of the crop can be harvested in this dry weather scenario because rains are forecast only for late September.
The volume of rainfall was small in almost all areas in the citrus belt, except in the southwestern region of São Paulo. Fundecitrus indicates that the only area where the production is expected to increase in this season is the southwest of SP – the harvest may be 19 % higher than in 2023/24. In other regions, the production decrease can be between 28 % and 60 %.
Total orange production1 is updated at 215.78 million boxes
The first update of the 2024-2025 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors from FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2, is 215.78 million boxes of 40.8 kg. Of the total, 200.46 million boxes come from the first three blooms, while 15.32 million boxes belong to the fourth bloom. Compared to the initial estimate in May, the projection shows a reduction of 16.60 million boxes, which corresponds to a 7.1 % decrease. Analyzing by maturity group, the early-season varieties decrease by approximately 3 %, the mid-season (Pera) by 11 %, and the late-season varieties by 7 %. Compared to the previous crop (307.22 million boxes), the current projection represents a 29.8 % drop, with early-season varieties down by roughly 33 %, mid-season (Pera) by 35 %, and late-season varieties by 24 %. It is also estimated that approximately 14.34 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region. …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of Exact Sciences, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
All Citrus Value Up 6 Percent, Production Up 12 Percent
The USD 221 million preliminary on-tree value of the 2023-2024 citrus crop is 6 percent more than the USD 208 million revised value for 2022-2023.
Florida’s all citrus production in 2023-2024 is 20.2 million boxes, up 12 percent from the previous season’s 18.1 million boxes. All orange production increased by 14 percent to 18.0 million boxes. Non-Valencia production at 6.76 million boxes is up 10 percent from the 2022-2023 season. Valencia orange production at 11.2 million boxes is up 16 percent. All grapefruit production decreased 1 percent to 1.79 million boxes. Tangerine and tangelo production in 2023-2024 is down 6 percent from the previous season …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The Prognosfruit Conference is Europe’s leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, gathering apple and pear experts from across Europe and beyond. Prognosfruit 2024 took place in Budapest, Hungary. During the conference, WAPA (World Apple and Pear Association) released its forecast for the upcoming season of 2024/2025. The forecast for apples is set at 10,2 million t, 11,3 % lower than last year. The pear crop shows a slight recovery from 2023, increasing by 4,9 % to 1,79 million t.
Prognosfruit, the leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, took place in Budapest, Hungary. Prognosfruit 2024 was organised by WAPA in cooperation with FruitVeB (Magyar Zöldség-Gyümölcs Szakmaközi Szervezet). The meeting was opened with an address by István Nagy, Hungarian Minister of Agriculture, currently holding the rotating EU Presidency. He presented the agenda and priorities of the European Council of Agriculture Ministers. This agenda includes the future direction of the agricultural policy in challenging times and the future of the CAP, to secure the competitiveness of the production, and to address the impact of climate change, the sustainability debate, food security, labour issues, and geopolitical uncertainties.
In 2024, the apple production in the EU for the top producing countries contributing to this report is estimated to decrease by 11,3 % compared to last year to a total of 10.207.405 t. This year’s crop is also 13,6 % below the average of the previous 3 years. Regarding the main varieties, Golden Delicious production is set to shrink by 10,2 % to a total of 1.972.514 t. Gala, the second-largest variety, is expected to decrease by 11,1 % (1.350.835 t). Red Delicious is estimated to grow in production (+2,8 %), while Idared’s should be 18,4 % lower than in 2023.
The EU pear crop for 2024, on the other hand, is estimated to grow by 4,9 % compared to last year’s production with a total of 1.790.229 t. This increase is due to the recovery in Italy’s production (+120,5 % compared to 2023) and despite a reduction in the Belgian and Dutch figures (-26,6 % and -8,7 % respectively). In 2024, the production of Conference pears is estimated to decrease by 13,5 %, to 776.128 t. William BC pear production, on the other hand, should grow by 33,8 %. Abate Fetel’s production is forecasted to recover to 124.832 t (+131,8 %)
The market balance will be influenced by a relative steadiness of volume destined for the fresh market due to stable production Western part of the EU in France, Italy, and Spain. On the other hand, the Central and Eastern regions of the European Union were heavily impacted by poor blossoming, late frost, and hail, leading to lower crops in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Austria. This will imply a lower supply for apple processing in the 2024/2025 season.
The outlook for the season is overall positive and should provide opportunities for better returns for the sector, which still faces the challenges of inflation and rising costs of the past months.
After weeks of dry weather, rains were registered in many citrus areas in São Paulo state in mid-July. Although the volume of rainfall was not homogeneous among regions (rains were registered especially in the south and in the southwest of São Paulo state), it brought a certain relief for citrus growers, who were concerned with the dry weather that had already been affecting the trees.
The rainfall was more significant in the southwest of SP state; thus, flowers may start blossoming. In areas where rains were less abundant (or they were not registered), more humidity is necessary for the flowers to blossom.
As for the tahiti lime, the recent rainfall is not likely to increase the supply in this moment, but it may favor the harvest and the quality in the coming weeks.
Juice exports decrease in the 2023/24 season
Brazilian shipments of orange juice dropped in the 2023/24 season (from July 2023 to June 2024), after increasing in the previous crop. Brazil exported 1 million tons, downing 8.1 % compared to the season before (data from Comex Stat). The revenue totaled USD 2.7 billion, for an increase of 25 % in the same comparison. The export decrease is mainly related to the low volume of juice in stocks in Brazil.
Processing activities
The orange processing continues to move at a fast pace in São Paulo state. Some players from the industry surveyed by Cepea say that the crushing is more advanced this season, and that the processing activities of early varieties are likely to reduce this month. Last year, the processing finished only in the second fortnight of September; however, in 2024/25, activities are expected to end in July or in August.
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 18.0 million boxes. The total is comprised of 6.76 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties), unchanged from the June forecast, and 11.2 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up 100,000 boxes from the June forecast. The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production remains at 1.79 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 240,000 boxes are white, and 1.55 million boxes are the red varieties. The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast is unchanged at 450,000 boxes …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
As the industry shifts its focus to the new crop, growing conditions for the next apple season in Poland were initially favourable, with fruit maturation occurring three weeks earlier than usual. However, a cold snap between April 2020-2023 significantly affected the orchards. This freeze occurred while the apple trees were still in bloom, and despite strong flowering, the frost caused damage across all apple varieties.
Following the freeze event in April, Poland experienced a second cold wave in May, accompanied by hailstorms in the latter half of the month. While it is difficult to assess the full extent of the damage, market players estimate the crop yield will be no more than 3 million tonnes, significantly lower than the anticipated 5 million tonnes. Consequently, apple juice concentrate production is expected to be around 200,000 MT for 2024/25 MY, down from 2023/24 MY which was 265,000 MT.
The apple crop in Turkey in the 2024/25 MY is also expected to be smaller year-over-year by at least 15 %, according to market sources. This decrease is attributed to heavy rainfall and lower yields following three years of high yields, with one market player noting that “the trees are tired.” Demand for Turkish apple concentrate has been strong from US buyers in recent months. …
Source: www.mintecglobal.com
In MY 2023/24, the drop registered in EU orange and mandarin production was not compensated by the larger lemon and grapefruit output. EU citrus production is concentrated in the Mediterranean region. Spain and Italy represent the leading EU citrus producers, followed by Greece, Portugal, and Cyprus.
The EU is a net importer of citrus fruits, with imports largely exceeding exports. A large amount of trade takes place internally, from producing to non-producing EU Member States. With trade through Asian routes becoming increasingly challenging, EU neighboring citrus producers in the Mediterranean Basin (such as Egypt or Turkey) are concentrating their export efforts in the EU. This has been particularly true during the first half of the marketing year, coinciding with the Northern Hemisphere citrus producing season and resulting in increasing competition in the region. EU citrus exports in MY 2023/24, largely concentrated in non-EU Member European countries, are projected to decline only marginally …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
All Oranges 17.9 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 17.9 million boxes. The total includes 6.76 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 11.1 million boxes of Valencia oranges …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 378 million 90-pound boxes (MBx) – standard reference, equivalent to 15.42 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of 7.3 percent compared to previous Post estimate (408 million boxes or 16.5 MMT), primarily due to poor weather conditions that culminated in a more severe drought, as well as impacts from greening. Meanwhile, Post revised the orange weight forecast to 165 grams/5.82 ounces in MY 2023/24, 4.2 percent heavier than Post previous estimate of 158 grams due to the lower production and consequent more room for the fruits to grow. Post revised the total forecast related to the Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent production for MY 2023/24 at 1.06 MMT, a decrease of 8.62 percent vis-à-vis the Post estimate for MY 2022/23 (1.16 MMT), due to downward expected availability of fruit for processing provoked by drought, extremely high temperatures and increase of greening incidence …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil in the partial of the 2023/24 season (from July/23 to May/24) remains below that registered in the same period of the previous crop. According to data from Comex Stat, Brazil exported 914.9 thousand tons of orange juice, for a decrease of 8.9 % compared to the same period last season.
The revenue, in turn, totaled USD 2.47 billion, moving up 22 % this season in relation to the previous. The main reason for the increase in revenue was the higher price paid per ton of juice, which rose due to the low availability of the commodity in Brazil, according to agents consulted by Cepea.
OJ shipments to the European Union amounted 489.79 thousand tons from July/23 to May/24, downing 8.2 % against the same period of 2022/23. The income, in turn, rose 27 %, at USD 1.35 billion. To the US, exports dropped 11 % in relation to that in 2022/23, at 293.64 thousand tons. The income verified between July/23 and May/24 was USD 737 million, 9 % up against the same period last season.
Domestic market
Prices of oranges allocated to processing activities have been moving up since March, when contracts involving the 2024/25 season have started to be closed. In early June, values of the fruit traded in the spot market in São Paulo state hit BRL 85.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered, a new record of Cepea series, which started in 1994, in real terms (averages were deflated by the IGP-DI).
Price rises are related to both the higher demand and the limited supply. As for the demand, the industry needs to purchase the raw material, because orange juice stocks are very low. Concerning the supply, the fruit output may be small again in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro.
After two months of price drops, orange values are expected to increase again in the in natura market in June. Processing activities are likely to be intensified, since more companies have started to operate, limiting the supply of fruits in the in natura market. Players say that, although the demand is usually lower in this period, since the weather is colder, the supply in the in natura market is expected to be smaller than the demand.
Orange prices already increased in the second fortnight of May, after the release of estimates of a lower output by Fundecitrus. Thus, many producers stopped harvesting fruits for the in natura market, preferring to meet the demand from the industry.
In May, the average for the pear orange was BRL 80.22 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, downing 11.21 % in relation to April/24.
Although prices dropped from April to May, they are still at high levels. In addition to the forecast of a small crop, low stocks of orange juice have been boosting the industrial demand for fruits.
Tahiti lime
The supply is expected to continue limited in June, due to the below-average volume of rainfall. Colder temperatures have concerned producers, since this scenario may result in characteristics that purchasers disapprove, especially in the international market. In May, the price average was at BRL 32.62 per 27-kilo box, harvested, 18.96% up compared to April.
Ponkan tangerine
Prices may move up in June, especially from the second fortnight on, when the supply in São Paulo tends to decrease. Moreover, the fruit can be a good alternative for orange and other fruits, which are presenting higher quotations. On the other hand, the demand is likely to decrease due to the cold weather, limiting more significant price rises.
The 2024-2025 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt by Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors at FEA-RP/USP1 and FCAV/Unesp2, is 232.38 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90 lbs) each. This production is divided as follows (figures in parentheses indicate the drop in production as compared to the previous crop):
- 37.12 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties (- 36.10 %);
- 15.72 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada varieties (- 15.07 %);
- 70.97 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety (- 27.30 %);
- 81.58 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties (- 22.45 %);
- 26.99 million boxes of the Natal variety (- 2.91 %).
Approximately 14.61 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro (- 47.48 %).
Overall, the projected volume represents a significant drop of 24.36 % as compared to the previous crop that totaled 307.22 million boxes, a value close to the average for the last decade …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Marcos Fava Neves, Part-time Full Professor at FEA-RP/USP.
2José Carlos Barbosa, (voluntary) Full Professor at FCAV/Unesp.
Total orange production for the 2023-2024 crop season ended at 307.22 million boxes1
The 2023-2024 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors from FEA- RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – concluded with 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows:
- 58.09 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
- 18.51 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada early-season varieties;
- 97.62 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
- 105.20 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
- 27.80 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.
Of the total, about 27.82 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
The season´s production was 2.22% lower in comparison to the previous crop, which reached 314.21 million boxes and was 0.69% below the initial forecast made in May 2023 …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
On 18 April 2024, WCO members gathered for its fifth Annual General Meeting (AGM). During the AGM, WCO presented the consolidated data of the production and export forecasts for the forthcoming Southern Hemisphere citrus season 2024. The preliminary forecast was collected thanks to WCO members in Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Peru, South Africa, and Uruguay. In addition, the Association also marked its first change in leadership with the election of a new Steering Committee that will guide its work in the upcoming two years.
During WCO’s AGM, the preliminary forecast for the upcoming Southern Hemisphere citrus season was presented to representatives from the citrus sector in Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Peru, South Africa, and Uruguay, citrus production is expected to decrease by 0.77 % compared to the previous year, with an estimated production of 24,338,123 tonnes. Exports, however, are expected to continue increasing, with a projected growth of 7.45 % compared to 2023 to reach 4,156,879 tonnes.
Orange production is forecasted to decrease by 5.66% compared to 2023, with 15,478,167 T in total. Soft citrus production is expected to increase significantly (+ 11.58 %, 3,325,829 T in total). A 5.69 % increase is projected for lemon production (3,244,857 tonnes in total), while grapefruit production should decline by 3.89 % (to 532.539 tonnes in total). Limes are forecasted to reach 1,756,731 T, which is 10.57 % above the 2023 figure.
The Southern Hemisphere season has been negatively impacted by difficult climatic conditions, as drought-like conditions in the Southern Hemisphere negatively affected production. However, expectations have improved recently, leading to only a slight decrease in production.
WCO marks its first leadership transition, demonstrating its transition towards full maturity, as demonstrated by the switch in leadership from the two previous Co-Chairs, Justin Chadwick (for the South Hemisphere) and José Antonio García (for the North Hemisphere) to a new team formed by Sergio del Castillo (for the South Hemisphere) and Badr Bennis (for the North Hemisphere), who will guide the work of the Association over the upcoming two years.
The two outgoing Co-Chairs highlighted WCO’s notable achievements since its founding, quadrupling its membership, making WCO a notable forum for citrus sector actors to exchange perspectives and data on matters of common concern. WCO has launched over the last five years new instruments like common data reporting formats and interactive databases for members with the latest production and trade forecast data, dedicated working groups to explore ways to boost the marketing and the promotion of all citrus categories, hosting of physical and online events allowing the sector to discuss and interact, helping to further the knowledge of actors, and liaising with the media to help promote the visibility of the sector.
All oranges 18.8 million boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is lowered 1.00 million boxes to 18.8 million boxes. If realised, this will be 19 percent more than last season’s revised production. The forecast consists of 6.80 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 12.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Brazilian orange juice processors finished 2023 with low stocks. A report released by CitrusBR in March indicates that the volume was 463.94 thousand tons (equivalent to concentrate juice) on December 31, 2023, being 6.7 % higher than that on the same day last year, but the second lowest in history (the series has started in 2011).
Considering that the industry is practically in the offseason period, and, therefore, they have been using stocks to supply the international market, the stocked volume is likely to decrease month after month. This scenario brings concerns about the global supply, since Brazil is the biggest world exporter, and, although there are no forecasts for the next crop (2024/25) yet, the orange production may not increase compared to the current season.
CitrusBR has not projected the ending stocks for the orange juice industry this season. However, data from Cepea indicate that stocks may finish the season higher than in the previous, especially because of the decrease in exports.
Taking 2023/24 initial stocks, of 84.75 thousand tons (CitrusBR), processing of 267 million boxes (discounting the 40 million boxes of the in natura market of the total volume projected by Fundecitrus), the same juice yield of the previous crop and the 6 % decrease of exports (from July/23 to February/24), the amount in stocks by the end of the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) would be only 94.5 thousand tons, 11 % more than in the same period last year.
In spite of the projection of an increase compared to the last season, it is worth noting that 2022/23 ending stocks were the lowest in recent history.
Production
The rainfall in orange producing areas in São Paulo state has been favoring the 2024/25 season. Players surveyed by Cepea say that the good humidity has been positive for the fruits, allowing to anticipate the harvest of early varieties, which have started to be offered in the in natura market in February and may be intensified in March.
Total forecast production of oranges1 remains at 307.22 million boxes
The third forecast for the 2023/24 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on February 09, 2024 by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2, maintains the projection of 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, unchanged in total volume from the previous forecast. This represents a reduction of 0.7 % when compared to the initial forecast for the season. Of the total estimated production, approximately 27.76 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
All Oranges 19.8 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 19.8 million boxes, down 700,000 boxes from the January forecast. If realised, this will be 25 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 6.80 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
On the occasion of its Annual General Meeting in Fruit Logistica, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has released the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. According to the forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, apple production is set to grow by 1,1 % compared to 2023, while the pear crop is expected to decrease by 2,3 %.
On Friday 9 February 2024, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) held its Annual General Meeting. During the Meeting, which took place during Fruit Logistica in Berlin, WAPA presented the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season. This report has been compiled with the support of CAFI (Argentina), APAL (Australia), ABPM (Brazil), Fruits from Chile (Chile), New Zealand Apples and Pears (New Zealand), and Hortgro (South Africa), and therefore provides consolidated data from the six leading Southern Hemisphere countries.
Regarding apples, the Southern Hemisphere 2024 crop forecast suggests an increase of 1,1 % to a total of 4.775.530 t compared to last year (4.725.574 t). South Africa is expected to maintain its lead as the largest producer with 1.396.659 t (+ 4,6 from 2023), followed by Brazil (1.100.000 t, in line with 2023), Chile (912.000 t, – 8,4 %), New Zealand (557.871 t, + 14,7 %), Argentina (501.000 t, – 4,8 %), and Australia (308.000 t, + 5,8 %). With 1.578.148 t, Gala is by far the most popular variety, with its volume remaining in line with 2023 although 11,4 % below the average of the previous 3 years. Exports are also expected to increase (+ 8 %) to reach 1.551.696 t. South Africa (+ 5,1 %) and Chile (+ 5,3 %), the two largest exporters, are both expected to increase their export volumes, reaching 572.280 t and 493.000 t respectively. Exports from New Zealand should grow by 22,2 % (381.729 t in total), while lower export quantities are forecasted for Argentina (70.000 t, – 4,1 %) and Brazil (32.000 t, – 10,6 %).
Regarding pears, the Southern Hemisphere growers predict a slight decline in the crop (- 2,3 %), bringing the total to 1.465.800 t. Argentina (614.000 t), Chile (203.000 t), and Australia (72.000 t) are expected to decrease their production by 6 %, 5,4 %, and 2,7 % respectively. South Africa’s production levels are forecasted to increase to 567.334 t (+ 3,4 % from 2023), as well as New Zealand’s (+ 8,4 %, with 9.066 t in total). Packham’s Triumph remains the most produced variety (508.000 t, with a slight 1,3 % decrease compared to 2023), followed by Williams’ bon chrétien pears (300.082 t). Export figures are expected to be in line with 2023 with a total of 654.323 t.
European apple stocks stood at 3.851.098 t as of 1 January 2024, which is 4,6 % lower than in 2023. Similarly, the total of 582.587 t for European pears is 4,4 % below the figures from the previous year. On the other hand, stock figures are higher in the USA, both for apples (2.138.376 t, + 33,6 %) and for pears (169.474 t, + 14,9 %).
During the Annual General Meeting, Jeff Correa (Pear Bureau Northwest – USA) was elected as the President of the association, taking over from Dominik Woźniak (Society for Promotion of Dwarf Fruit Orchards / Rajpol – Poland). Nick Dicey (Hortgro – South Africa) will join him as the Vice-President. Regarding his new role, Mr Correa commented: “I’m honoured that I have been elected as the next Chairman of WAPA. I look forward to working with the WAPA staff and membership to advance the data sharing, market insights, and explore new avenues that will benefit the organization and its members”. Finally, the Annual General Meeting confirmed that the next edition of Prognosfruit will be held in Budapest, Hungary, on 7-9 August 2024.
