As the industry shifts its focus to the new crop, growing conditions for the next apple season in Poland were initially favourable, with fruit maturation occurring three weeks earlier than usual. However, a cold snap between April 2020-2023 significantly affected the orchards. This freeze occurred while the apple trees were still in bloom, and despite strong flowering, the frost caused damage across all apple varieties.
Following the freeze event in April, Poland experienced a second cold wave in May, accompanied by hailstorms in the latter half of the month. While it is difficult to assess the full extent of the damage, market players estimate the crop yield will be no more than 3 million tonnes, significantly lower than the anticipated 5 million tonnes. Consequently, apple juice concentrate production is expected to be around 200,000 MT for 2024/25 MY, down from 2023/24 MY which was 265,000 MT.
The apple crop in Turkey in the 2024/25 MY is also expected to be smaller year-over-year by at least 15 %, according to market sources. This decrease is attributed to heavy rainfall and lower yields following three years of high yields, with one market player noting that “the trees are tired.” Demand for Turkish apple concentrate has been strong from US buyers in recent months. …
Source: www.mintecglobal.com
The dry and warm weather in São Paulo concerned citrus growers in early May. They say that fruits were falling from the trees, a scenario that is reinforced in areas with high incidence of HLB (Huanglongbing, or greening).
Growers collected fruits that fell, allocating them to crushing activities, although this process is more expensive than the regular harvest. Still, as prices at factories are high, this fact ends up being advantageous for both citrus growers and the industry, which needs to absorb as more fruits as possible. It is worth noting that higher temperatures and below-average rains since the middle of the second semester last year may result in a lower volume to harvest in 2024/25.
The heat wave and the lack of rains also affect the quality of oranges, reducing its attractiveness in the market.
As for the tahiti lime, the dry weather started to affect the development and the quality of the peel. Some producers were concerned and started harvesting, aiming to collect fruits that are prematurely falling to send them immediately to the industry.
As observed for other agricultural products, the production costs of citrus farming have increased sharply in Brazil, due to higher inputs prices, majorly fertilisers. This scenario is concerning farmers in Brazil, considering that citrus production was low in the two previous seasons, which resulted in higher costs per unit.
Even if productivity and production increase in the 2022/23 season – compared to that in 2020/21 and 2021/22, because of the slightly more favourable weather –, higher inputs prices are expected to limit a possible reduction in the production cost per unit. Thus, profit margins may be lower than the expected, despite orange valuations in 2022/23 – so far, the ceiling orange price is at BRL 32.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered to processing plant (considering only large-sized processors).
Tight profitability may continue to constrain investments in both crops’ renewal and replating, mainly because shorter-cycle crops, such as soybean crops, are currently more attractive and bring better opportunities to farmers.
Last year, after five consecutive years of stability, the area allocated to citrus farming shrank in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro (citrus belt), according to data from Fundecitrus, which may happen again in 2022.
Lower profit margins may also hamper adequate crop management in the citrus belt. Lower investments in crops’ renewal and replanting added to difficulties related to crop management may reduce orange production even more in the mid-term. Low supply may underpin prices, since the stocks of orange juice at the processing plants in SP are not high, and production needs to be higher for inventories to be replenished.
Citrus market
The domestic demand for oranges has not been high enough to raise prices. According to Cepea collaborators, many purchasers are trying to pay lower prices, putting farmers off selling oranges in the domestic market.
Brazilian citrus farmers claim that, if prices drop lower than the current levels, sales in the in natura market will become unviable. Currently, juice processors are bidding prices up to BRL 32/box (harvested and delivered). Although the values paid by processors include the harvesting and freight, the quality standard required by this segment and the risks of default are lower, making sales to the industry more attractive.
In this scenario, if the demand from processors continues high and prices, attractive, sales to the in natura market are expected to decrease, at least during the Winter and the beginning of Spring, when supply increases, while demand decreases. Also, most oranges have not reached the ideal maturation stage yet, allowing farmers to wait and sell the oranges when the processing activities in the 2022/23 season begin, forecast to late May/early June.
