The Brazilian exports of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent have been increasing for three months. Between July and September/19 (2019/20 crop), Brazil shipped 299.7 thousand tons of the product, 27 % more than that exported in the same period last year, according to Secex. Revenue, in turn, rose 17 %, in the same comparison, totaling 520.58 million USD.
The good exports performance is largely linked to the replenishing of European inventories (the European Union is the number one destination for the Brazilian orange juice) – last season, exports to the EU had decreased. Thus, this season, juice shipments to the EU have already reached 230.4 thousand tons, 47 % up compared to the volume exported between July and September last year.
To the United States, however, the Brazilian exports of FCOJ Equivalent have been decreasing (17% between July and September), totaling only 37.1 thousand tons since the beginning of the season, in July/19. This scenario reflects the supply offset in Florida in the 2018/19 crop as well as estimates for a positive scenario in 2019/20.
For the coming months, Brazilian juice exports are expected to keep on the rise, due to the higher orange production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) and the needs of European bottling plants to replenish inventories. To the USA, in turn, the increase in the demand for the Brazilian orange juice will depend on the orange production in Florida (although greening has been controlled in the American state, local groves still suffer the effects of the disease).
BRAZILIAN MARKET IN OCTOBER – Despite the higher demand for oranges in the Brazilian in natura market in the first fortnight of October, the supply of high quality fruits was low (oranges are wilted and small). Thus, prices for higher quality oranges increased in the Brazilian market in the first half of the month. Between October 1 and 15, pear orange prices averaged 21.38 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 12.6 % up compared to that in the first fortnight of September.
As regards tahiti lime, quotes increased in São Paulo in the same period – some deals reached 100.00 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested. The scenario was linked to lower supply, since the fruits still on tree had not reached the ideal size and maturation stage to be harvested.
Between October 1 and 15, tahiti lime prices averaged 79.94 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 68.3 % up compared to that in the first half of September. On the other hand, rains in the first fortnight of October may have favored fruits growth on tree, raising expectations for an increase in supply still in October.
The newly founded World Citrus Organisation (WCO) was officially launched at Fruit Attraction, Madrid. With this official presentation, citrus fruits are finally placed at the same level of coordination worldwide as other fruit categories, such as pears & apples, kiwis, avocado or red fruits, which already have their own global platforms. The WCO will act as the global platform for dialogue and action between the citrus producing countries worldwide. The core aim of the WCO is to facilitate member countries to better face common challenges and seize opportunities for the collective benefit of the citrus sector, in a spirit of cooperation and transparency.
Led by AILIMPO, the Spanish Lemon and Grapefruit Interbranch Association, and the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA), sector representatives from Argentina, Chile, Italy, Morocco, Peru, Spain, and South Africa decided to join forces to create a global citrus platform where together they may address the many multifaceted changes experienced by the citrus market over recent years. Other countries that were unable to attend the meeting have also committed to the project, and the remaining global producers are invited to join the organization.
The primary objective of the WCO is to facilitate collective action in the citrus sector, for both fresh and processed categories. Most recently the sector has been faced with an extensive array of significant issues of global concern including growth in production, overlapping of seasons, changing climate conditions resulting in varied quality and biosecurity challenges, increased competition within the citrus category and between other fruit categories and food products as well as stagnating fruit consumption. The WCO will facilitate member countries to better face these common challenges and identify opportunities for the collective benefit of the citrus sector.
Specifically, the WCO’s mission is to:
- Discuss common issues affecting citrus producing countries.
- Exchange information on production and market trends to prepare for the next decade to come.
- Foster dialogue on policy issues of common concern.
- Identify and promote Research and Innovation projects specific to the citrus sector.
- Liaise with public and private stakeholders on citrus-related matters to highlight the importance of citrus producers and the need for a fair return.
- Promote the global consumption of citrus.
During the official presentation in Madrid, the Director General of Agricultural Production and Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Esperanza Orellana, congratulated the citrus sector for the initiative, emphasizing the importance for Spain, leader in the production and export of citrus fruits, to be at the forefront of this project. The Counsellor of the Region of Murcia, Antonio Luengo, also greeted the participants and expressed his support for the new organisation. “It is important that the world citrus community works together to face common challenges and learn from each other,” he said, adding that, leaving aside the competitive factor, it is essential to share information and experiences for the collective benefit of the sector, which is of key strategic importance for Murcia and for Spain.
Freshfel Europe, the European Fresh Produce Association, whose Secretariat is based in Brussels, Belgium, will coordinate and administer the WCO. The next meeting, where the formalities for the foundation and future structure of the organisation will be formalized, will take place at FruitLogistica 2020 in Berlin.
By acquiring Isobionics, an innovation leader in biotechnology which is serving the global market for natural flavors and fragrances (F&F), and through a cooperation agreement with Conagen, a leader in biotechnology research, BASF enters the market for natural F&F ingredients. Being known as a leading supplier of synthetic aroma ingredients, the company now broadens its portfolio with natural ingredients such as vanillin, nootkatone and valencene. BASF intends to advance the technology for biotech-based aroma ingredients by combining its own R&D excellence and broad market access with the know-how and expertise of Isobionics and Conagen.
“Reflecting the potential of changing consumer habits and the scarcity of natural ingredients, the strengthening of our biotechnology footprint is at the heart of BASF’s strategy,” says Melanie Maas-Brunner, who leads BASF’s Nutrition & Health division.
Acquisition of Isobionics
“The Flavor & Fragrance industry is experiencing an increasing need for natural ingredients,” says Julia Raquet, who heads BASF’s Aroma Ingredients business. “But fluctuating product quality, availability and sustainability are constant challenges for our customers. By entering the market with biotechnology-based aroma ingredients, we intend to provide our customers with high-quality products to respond to the current market challenges.”
“BASF is known for its high-quality standards, traceability and excellent regulatory know-how,” says Toine Janssen, founder of Isobionics. “By combining our biotech-based product portfolio and strong development pipeline with BASF’s expertise and its global market reach, we can provide the natural aroma ingredients market with even more innovations – and boost our growth.”
Isobionics is a biotech-based aroma ingredients company, located in Geleen, the Netherlands. The company develops and produces a wide range of natural ingredients for the F&F market with a focus on citrus oil components such as nootkatone and valencene. Isobionics, with all its employees, will become part of BASF’s Aroma Ingredients business.
Cooperation agreement with Conagen
Besides acquiring Isobionics, BASF signed a cooperation agreement with Conagen, a research leader in the field of biotechnology. Through this partnership, BASF will be able to serve the market with natural vanillin, one of the aroma ingredients with the highest market demand.
The natural vanillin that BASF initially markets is based on ferulic acid sourced from rice and therefore named Natural Vanillin F. With its clean vanillin character, Natural Vanillin F is ideal for all flavor applications, such as chocolate, strawberry and caramel, while maintaining an “all-natural” labeling.
Conagen has strong R&D and commercialization capabilities for fermented ingredients. Fermentation is an ancient cultural technique well known from processes like brewing beer and baking bread. It uses microorganisms like e.g. bacteria or fungi to convert one substance into another.
BASF’s Nutrition & Health division furthermore recently established a global business unit dedicated to the research and production of enzymes, which can be used as natural processing aids or ingredients for a large variety of applications in food, feed and technical industries.
The Brazilian exports of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent have been increasing for two consecutive months. This season (July to August/19), Brazil has shipped 199.6 thousand tons of FCOJ Equivalent – to all destinations –, 19 % more than that from the same period last year, according to data from Secex. Revenue, in turn, rose 6 %, in the same comparison, totaling 336.64 million USD.
To the European Union, the number one destination for the Brazilian orange juice, national exports have totaled 140.3 thousand tons, 22 % up compared to that between July and August/18. To the United States, on the other hand, Brazilian shipments have decreased again, by 13 %, totaling only 32.8 thousand tons between July and August/19 – this result reflects the higher supply in Florida in the 2018/19 season and perspectives for a positive scenario in 2019/20.
PERSPECTIVES – Concerning production in Brazil, new estimates for the 2019/20 season released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) on September 10 indicate that the orange harvest in the citrus belt should total 388.42 million boxes (40.8 kilos each). This volume is only 0.12 % smaller than that reported in May, but 35.8 % higher than the amount harvested last season (2018/19).
According to Fundecitrus, lower estimates are based on the smaller rain amounts in São Paulo starting May, which reduced the average weight for the early varieties (hamlin, westin and rubi), from 138 to 136 grams, as well as the size, from 296 to 300 fruits per box.
Still according to the report from Fundecitrus, the harvesting of early oranges has totaled 96 %, against 23 % for pear oranges and 6 % for late oranges. So far, the total volume harvested in the 2019/20 season is at 35 %.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – Tahiti lime quotes increased in São Paulo State in the first fortnight of September, reflecting lower supply, since the fruits still on tree have not reached the ideal maturation and size to be harvested yet. Between September 2 and 13, tahiti lime prices averaged 47.48 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 50.73 % up compared to that in the first half of August.
Tahiti lime exports have reached record volumes this year, largely favored by the higher supply in Brazil between April and May. From January to August/19, exports of lemon and lime totaled 83.1 thousand tons, 9.3 % up compared to that in the same period last year, according to Secex.
Concerning oranges, supply was still low in the in natura market, due to the fast crushing pace in the large sized processing plants from SP. In the in natura market, the demand for oranges was high in the first fortnight of the month. Thus, between Sept. 2 and 13, pear orange quotes averaged 18.99 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 4.05 % up compared to that in the first half of August.
Updated orange1 crop forecast totals 388.42million boxes
The 2019-2020 orange crop forecast update for São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on September 10, 2019 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is of 388.42 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. This figure corresponds to a decrease of 0.12 % in relation to the estimate published in May/2019. Approximately 27,14 million boxes of the total crop should be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region. …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha andNatal.
2Departamentof Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp Campus Jaboticabal.
This National Science Week, Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO, has revealed how a secret recipe to get Black Soldier Flies in the mood could help tackle local food waste crisis.
Working with Canberra-based start-up Goterra, CSIRO’s farming experts have been testing lighting, temperature, moisture, surface texture and diet in a bid to find the perfect combination of conditions that will encourage flies to mate.
By boosting egg-laying, Goterra will be able to breed more insects to eat through food waste and turn it into compost – reducing landfill, emissions from transporting food to landfill, and enriching soil with nutrient-rich fertiliser.
This is just one of a number of CSIRO projects designed to kick-start the growth of a new Australian industry that will use insects to tackle challenges like food waste and create a more sustainable source of protein for human consumption.
Farming insects sustainably requires less land and water, while still maintaining a high protein production.
Working alongside the University of Adelaide, CSIRO is now expanding its partnership with Goterra to investigate which native Australian insects are the best nutritional choices for human consumption.
CSIRO’s Australian National Insect Collection will help identify native species of insects that are potential candidates for the edible insect industry in Australia, and work with local Aboriginal communities to understand traditions around witjuti grubs, bogong moths and green tree ants, which are known for their zesty citrus-tasting abdomens.
Later this month, CSIRO will host an international symposium on edible insects, and begin work on an industry roadmap to identify unique Australian opportunities to grow a local insect industry.
CSIRO Chief Executive Dr Larry Marshall said solving our national challenges of food security and environmental sustainability called for precisely the kind of innovative science and technology we celebrate during National Science Week.
“CSIRO has been at the forefront of agricultural and food innovation in Australia for over a century, so it’s fitting that today we’re using that expertise to grow a new local industry using native Australian resources like insects,” he said.
“Growing a new industry is a complex, multidisciplinary challenge, but with CSIRO’s expertise spanning farming, insects, nutrition, economic and environmental forecasting, and collaboration with industry, government and universities, we have a strong track record for turning excellent science into real-world solutions.”
While working with CSIRO, Goterra CEO Olympia Yarger had the Australian soldier fly Hermetia olympiae named after her, and said working with an organisation as diverse as CSIRO meant her business could develop in multiple directions.
“We were inspired to start the business out of passion for insects and a belief in harnessing them to work for us, whether that’s as a source of food with edible insects, or to process food waste using larvae,” Ms Yarger said.
“Our solution is focused on technology to create opportunities to use insects as a biological service. We’re building the technology to breed the insects and transport them to wherever there is a need, creating a mobile and versatile alternative to everything from sources of protein to landfill.”
Goterra accessed CSIRO expertise with funding from the CSIRO Kick-Start Program, which matches start-ups and small/medium businesses with research and development activities. CSIRO’s partnership with the University of Adelaide is part of CSIRO’s Industry PhD program, which offers science PhD students experience working on real industry challenges.
The harvesting of murcott tangor, which started at a slow pace in the second fortnight of June, is now stepping up in São Paulo State. According to Cepea collaborators, despite the good quality of the fruits, sales in July were below the expected, due to the colder weather in southeastern Brazil as well as the competition with ponkan tangerine – whose prices are usually lower.
However, the demand for murcott tangor increased in late July, surpassing that for other citrus varieties. Besides, most growers from SP have already ended the ponkan harvesting – there is only some volume available in the in natura market, from orchards from Minas Gerais State. This scenario, in turn, should boost the demand for murcott even more.
Despite higher supply in São Paulo, the fast sales pace for murcott tangor favored prices last month. Between July 1 and 31, quotes averaged 34.88 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 5.9 % up compared to the average in June.
PERSPECTIVES – Agents believe that the murcott harvesting should last until December, with the crop peak between October and November. The size of the fruits harvested so far is between small and medium, according to growers – due to the higher number of fruits on tree, which hampers growth.
PEAR ORANGE MARKET – Concerning pear oranges, the faster crushing pace helped to control supply in the in natura market. According to Cepea collaborators, this scenario should continue until the beginning of the harvesting for late oranges (mainly valência and natal), forecast to late August/early September.
Still, although pear orange prices are usually at the lowest levels in July, due to the crop peak and lower demand (because of the cold), quotes did not drop so sharply compared to June (only 1 %). The price average in July, at 18.06 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, dropped 32.6 % compared to that in the same month last year (when the output from the citrus belt was lower), in nominal terms, – but, compared to that in the same period of 2017, quotes rose 12 %.
The European Commission’s latest EUROPHYT – Interceptions annual report provides an overview of interception notifications received in 2018 and evaluates the main trends over the period 2013-2018.
This annual report shows that in 2018 there were 1,712 interceptions by Member States and Switzerland due to the presence of harmful organisms, an increase of 16% from the previous year. Despite this increase, there is a reduction of 30 % in the number of interceptions since 2013.
The main non-EU country commodities intercepted due to the presence of harmful organisms were fruit and vegetables, particularly peppers, mango, basil, eggplant, citrus and various gourds. Regarding the organisms, the increase over previous years can be attributed to increased interceptions of Thrips, an increase in nematode interceptions from Belarus and increased Citrus Black spot interceptions from Brazil and Argentina. Regarding commodities, wood packaging material and cut flowers also contributed significantly to the interceptions but with no significant change on previous years. There is also a noted increase in interceptions of seeds imported without required certification.
Background:
EUROPHYT- Interceptions is the Commission’s rapid alert system for plant health used by EU Member States and Switzerland. Members use the system to notify the presence of harmful organisms and other plant health risks found in EU-bound consignments during import controls. The system is also an effective policy support tool for risk assessment and risk management. Based on EUROPHYT data, a Non-EU trade Alert List is published each month on the Commission’s Health and Food Safety website.
The 2018-2019 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is now 71.6 million boxes. The total is comprised of 30.4 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties), unchanged from the June forecast, and 41.2 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up 200,000 boxes from the June forecast. The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production is unchanged at 4.51 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 770,000 boxes are white and 3.74 million boxes are the red varieties. The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast remains at 990,000 boxes. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
MY 2018/19 EU citrus production is projected to reach 11.6 MMT, an eight percent rise compared to previous year and consistent with previous estimates. The regional increase is due to an expected rebound in Spanish production, the EU’s main citrus producer. Favorable weather conditions facilitated good flowering and fruit setting. Spain expects a 14.6 percent increase in citrus production from the previous year at 7.3 MMT and 0.4 percent higher than previous estimates. In February 2019, Spanish growers protested against the European Commission as the rise in EU imports of South African citrus lowered EU prices. However, the rebound of EU citrus production may result in a reduction in EU citrus imports. Strategic markets destinations for EU citrus exports continue to be Canada, the Middle East and China. In addition, in MY 2017/18 EU imports of U.S. grapefruit and orange juice declined due to a decrease in U.S. production.
Read the complete report
All Oranges 72.4 Million Boxes
The 2018-2019 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 72.4 million boxes, down 5 percent from the April forecast. The total includes of 30.4 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 42.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges.
Non-Valencia Oranges 30.4 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is finalized at 30.4 million boxes. Harvest is complete for the included varieties. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is 750,000 boxes, 2 percent of the non-Valencia total.
Valencia Oranges 42.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is lowered to 42.0 million boxes, down 9 percent from the April forecast. Weekly certifications in April averaged 3.46 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted April 29-30, 2019 showed 62 percent of the Valencia rows are harvested. Estimated utilization to May 1, including an allocation for other use, is 26.4 million boxes. Processors were surveyed regarding fruit processed through April 30th and the estimated quantity remaining to be processed to the end of the season. Analysis of the Row Count Survey, estimated utilization to the first of the month, and the results of the processors report support reducing the Valencia orange forecast. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The combination of lower orange supply in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2018/19 crop with the recovery of Florida production is keeping the Brazilian exports of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent low. This season (from July/18 to March/19), Brazilian juice shipments to all destinations have totaled 783.4 thousand tons, 14 % down compared to that in the same period last season, according to Secex. Revenue, in turn, has reached 1.4 billion USD, 12 % lower in the same comparison.
To the European Union, the biggest purchaser of the Brazilian juice, shipments have totaled 506.29 thousand tons this season, 8 % down compared to the same period last year. Revenue, in turn, has reached 941.2 million USD, 6 % down in the same comparison.
To the United States, the Brazilian exports of FCOJ Equivalent totaled 167.8 thousand tons between July/18 and March/19, 26 % less than in the same period of the previous season. Revenue reached 296.7 million USD, 27 % down in the same comparison.
The American demand for the Brazilian orange juice should not decrease too much in the coming seasons, due to the damages caused by greening, a disease with severe effects on production in the long term.
CROP END – Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) announced, on April 10, that the orange production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) has totaled 285.98 million boxes of 40.8 kilos this season, 28.2 % down compared to the output in 2017/18 (398.35 million boxes). Compared to the average in the last 10 years, the current production is 11.6% lower.
Lower productivity was triggered by the weather (heat and drought) during fruit development. Low supply, in turn, kept high the need of Brazilian processing plants for oranges in 2018, limiting availability in the in natura segment.
MARKET IN APRIL – The higher availability of early oranges in the 2019/20 crop pressed down the quotes of all varieties surveyed by Cepea in the first fortnight of April. With the maturation stage below that demanded in the in natura segment, trades were limited. Between April 1 and 15, pear orange prices averaged 35.17 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 18.8 % down compared to that in the first fortnight of March.
TAHITI LIME – Tahiti lime prices have been firm in Brazil this year, which is not typical for a first quarter. Although harvesting stepped up (which is common for the beginning of the year, due to the crop peak), high demand for exports as well as from Brazilian processing plants is controlling supply in São Paulo State.
In this scenario, the average price in April (until April 15) is already the second highest for the month, in nominal terms, considering Cepea series, which started in 1996 for this product. The same was observed in the first quarter of 2019, when the nominal average in January was only lower than in Jan/18 and the nominal averages in February and March were only lower than in the same months of 2016 – tahiti lime quotes reached nominal records in Feb. and Mar. 2016 and in Jan. 2018, in the historical series.
Agents’ initial expectations were that the harvesting of the fruits from the second blossoming would increase tahiti lime supply in the in natura market in April, despite the smaller volume compared to that in the crop peak. However, mainly in January and February, the demand from processing plants was high and prices, appealing. Thus, many growers harvested all the fruits early in the year, reducing supply in March.
Some citrus farmers accelerated the tahiti lime harvesting early in the year, aiming to prepare the trees for production in the second semester of 2019 (when prices usually rise).
In early April, according to purchasers, it was still difficult to find high quality tahiti lime in the in natura market. While mature fruits were missing, the new ones were still green – for that reason, harvesting was postponed. Higher quality fruits, in turn, were allocated to the international market. Thus, between April 1 and 15, tahiti lime quotes averaged 23.49 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, a staggering 63.6 % up compared to that in the first fortnight of March.
Archer Daniels Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) announced that it has reached an agreement to acquire the Ziegler Group, a leading European provider of natural citrus flavor ingredients. The agreement comes shortly after ADM completed its addition of U.S.-based citrus flavor provider Florida Chemical.
“Ziegler is highly respected as a cutting-edge leader in citrus, and we’re excited to welcome their outstanding leadership and talent to ADM,” said Vince Macciocchi, president of ADM’s Nutrition business. “The combination of Ziegler and Florida Chemical will immediately position ADM for growth as a global leader in natural citrus ingredients, with a complete range of innovative citrus solutions and systems for food, beverage and fragrance customers.”
Founded in 1963, Ziegler uses proprietary cold concentration technologies to produce natural high-quality citrus oils, extracts, concentrates and compounds for flavor, food, and beverage industry customers, focusing on Europe, the U.S. and Japan. The company is privately held and headquartered in Aufsess, in southern Germany.
“We are delighted that we found a strong home at ADM where both our business and our people can grow,” said Günter Ziegler. “The integration of more than 50 years of citrus expertise into the ADM group will secure our top priority: successful long-term growth for our business and our employees. Our family members will be staying with the company to help ensure a smooth transition. We’re excited to join ADM and strongly believe that the combination of our technology and citrus capabilities, coupled with the portfolio of ingredients and global reach of ADM, will accelerate growth opportunities while creating benefits for our customers.”
“Citrus is one of the fastest-growing, highest-demand flavors for food and beverages, which is why the creation of a global citrus platform offering a complete product line for our customers is such an important capability for our growth strategy,” Macciocchi continued. “We’re continuing the most ambitious portfolio transformation in our company’s long history, and as we build the world’s leading nutrition company, the beneficiaries will be our customers and our shareholders.”
The deal, which is subject to regulatory approval, is expected to close in the second quarter of 2019.
The first oranges from the 2019/20 season started to arrive at the market of São Paulo State in the first fortnight of March. Despite the small volumes harvested, trades started in the same month as production did last year. Thus, Brazilian citrus growers believe the output of early oranges will be able to supply the Brazilian in natura market.
Considering the favorable weather during the development of the flowers of these varieties (second semester of 2018), the citrus growers consulted by Cepea have reported a satisfactory flower settlement –, resulting in a positive volume harvested in all producing regions this new season. For now, supply has been controlled, due to the delay in fruits growth, which, in turn, reflects the lack of rains in January. In this scenario, most early oranges have not reached the ideal maturation stage for the in natura segment yet.
According to growers, among the fruits supplied in the first fortnight of March, the main varieties were rubi, hamlin and lima sorocaba – traded at 30 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on average, on tree. The remaining varieties, such as westin and baía, may arrive at the market starting the second half of the month, as they reach the ideal stage.
However, supply should not be large enough to lead too many processors to start activities. Thus, until mid-April, the main destination of these fruits should be the in natura market – mainly to offset the low supply of pear oranges in the offseason period.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – The Carnival period in Brazil (March 2 to 6) weakened the demand for oranges in early March. Supply, in turn, was limited by the rains in São Paulo, which lowered fruits quality, mainly for late oranges. The growers consulted by Cepea reported the harvesting end for pear and late oranges.
Thus, between March 1 and 15, pear orange quotes averaged 43.32 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 15.1% up compared to that in the first fortnight of February.
Odwalla is bringing a smooth, tasty twist to the kombucha craze.
Odwalla Smoobucha, which hits stores in the U.S. after a buzzed-about unveiling at Natural Products Expo West tradeshow in Anaheim, Calif., blends the great taste and texture of fruit smoothies with the boldness of pasteurized kombucha.
Three flavors – Citrus & Guava, Berry & Ginger and Apple & Greens – offer a unique mashup of flavor and function, with 40 percent less sugar and fewer calories than leading smoothies. The cleverly named beverage also includes 500 million colony-forming units of “good” bacteria, an excellent source of fiber that helps support digestive health and delivers 100 % daily value of antioxidant Vitamin C. Odwalla Smoobucha, offered in 15.2-oz. bottles, can be enjoyed as a nutritious, on-the-go snack.
Odwalla also is introducing two limited-edition flavors inspired by the vibrant essence of spring. Hot Tropics and Mint to Be Berry offer a refreshing blend of 100 % juice, coconut water and trendy botanical ingredients such as jalapeño and mint.
Data released in late February reinforced perspectives that the inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent should decrease to critical levels at the end of the current season (2018/19). Although estimates were revised up (by 36.7 %) compared to the first report, released in August/18, the volume forecast is still one of the lowest in the recent citrus activity (the second lowest since 2010/2011).
According to the report, released by CitrusBR on Feb. 26, ending stocks of FCOJ Equivalent at processors from São Paulo State (on June 30 2019) should total only 200.56 thousand tons. If confirmed, this volume would account for a 41.5 % reduction compared to that in 2017/18 (at 342.96 thousand tons). Thus, even if higher production estimates for 2019/20 are confirmed in the citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro), low juice supply may again boost the orange prices paid to Brazilian citrus farmers next year.
This scenario, in turn, reflects both the lower production in the current season (2018/19), which is almost 29 % smaller than the previous one, according to Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund), and the ending stocks in June/18 (related to the 2017/18 crop), which, although positive, were not considered too high. Besides, yield has decreased at processors this crop, due to the weather, demanding larger amounts of orange for juice production.
The increase in the volume estimated back in August/18 compared to that from February/19 may be linked to the reduction in the Brazilian juice exports, due to both lower demand from the main importing countries and processors strategy of keeping larger volumes stocked at the end of the 2018/19 season. Still, ending stocks in the new season will be lower than the strategic level established, at 300 thousand tons, reinforcing the predictions for firm prices paid to Brazilian citrus farmers – for both those who sell oranges to the industry and the ones who sell to the in natura market.
In fact, the first bids from large-sized processors for the oranges from the 2019/20 season started earlier again (in October/18). Bidding prices were around 22 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at processors, to which may still be added a participation additional to the juice selling price in the international market. In 2018/19, the first bidding prices were up to 20 BRL per box. Trades, however, have already been reduced or ended.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – The availability of high quality oranges was low in SP State in February, pushing up quotes of all the varieties surveyed by Cepea. Between Feb. 1 and 28, pear orange quotes averaged 40.66 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 33.6 % up compared to that in January (2 – 31).
All Oranges 77.0 Million Boxes
The 2018-2019 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 77.0 million boxes, unchanged from the February forecast. If realized, this will be 71 percent more than last season’s hurricane affected production. The forecast consists of 31.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (includes Navel varieties) and 46.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2008-2009 through 2016-2017 seasons. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to those 9 seasons unless noted. The hurricane affected 2017-2018 season is excluded from the regressions.
Non-Valencia Oranges 31.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is lowered by 1.00 million boxes to 31.0 million. The Row Count survey conducted February 25-26, 2019, showed 97 percent of the early-midseason rows and 84 percent of the Navels rows are harvested. Estimated utilization for non-Valencia oranges to March 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 30.1 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is reduced to 750 thousand boxes.
Valencia Oranges 46.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is increased by 1.00 million boxes to 46.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below the minimum and is projected to be below the minimum at harvest, requiring 268 pieces to fill a 90 pound box. Droppage is now projected to be average at harvest. Harvest of Valencia oranges has begun. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The EU Member State’s experts endorsed – on 22 February – in the context of a Standing Committee a European Commission’s proposal to prolong the emergency measures with specific import requirements for citrus fruits from Argentina, Brazil, South Africa and Uruguay, and strengthened the import requirements for citrus fruits originating in Brazil, to prevent the introduction into and the spread within the European Union of citrus black spot (CBS). This measure sets out specific growing and inspection requirements for citrus fruits originating in those countries that had recurrent interceptions of CBS at the entry into the EU, with the aim to ensure that the fruits arriving to the EU are free from this disease.
The Decision on the prolongation and reinforcement of this emergency measure will be formally adopted by the European Commission in the coming weeks.
For more information on emergency measures on import of plants and plant products, see SANTE’s webpage.
The average prices of all orange varieties (in natura) surveyed by Cepea in São Paulo State were considered satisfactory in January/19 compared to January and December of 2018. This scenario was linked to the lower orange supply in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in 2018/19. Thus, it seems the prices paid to the citrus farmers from SP will continue at high levels in February, mainly for the higher quality fruits, since the availability of early oranges should only grow from April onwards, when the first fruits of the 2019/20 can be harvested.
In the first quarter of 2019, harvesting should be limited to both the fruits that are out of the ideal period and the remaining of the late oranges. Some farmers have even ended activities related to the current crop (2018/19). Besides, the high temperatures usually observed in February may boost the consumption of citrus fruits in SP, reducing supply even more.
According to the citrus growers consulted by Cepea, although perspectives regarding the volume to be produced are positive, the weather is still crucial for a good crop development – it needs to rain significantly in the citrus-producing regions this month so that fruits growth and new blossoming are favored.
PRICES – In January/19 the average price of the pera rio orange closed at 30.42 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 52 % higher than in Jan/18 and 12 % higher than in Dec/18, respectively, in nominal terms. For natal oranges, the price average was at 26.34 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, 45.6 % and 8.6 % higher in the same comparison.
TAHITI LIME – For tahiti lime, on the other hand, the crop peak in São Paulo continued to press down quotes in January. However, farmers have reported problems caused by the high temperatures: some fruits were becoming yellowish and dropping down from trees, which may lower supply and push up the quotes of the higher quality fruits.
In January, the average price for tahiti lime was at 16.76 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 18.2 % down compared to that in the same period last year and stable (-0.5 %) compared to the average price in December/18.
The prices paid to the orange growers from São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro region in the 2019/20 season should be positive, despite the larger production, since inventories are forecast to, again, decrease to critical levels at the processors from SP State (because of the lower production in 2018/19), underpinning the demand for the fruit.
According to estimates from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released in August/18, the ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent forecast to June 30 2019, at 146.7 thousand tons, would only be enough for a two-month exporting period. Therefore, this scenario could underpin orange prices in the Brazilian market in 2019, despite the high production in the 2019/20 season – although positive, the ending stocks in June/18 (related to the 2017/18 crop) were not too large.
Indeed, the first bids from large-sized processors for the oranges from the 2019/20 crop started early again (in October/18). Bidding prices were around 22 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at processors (with the possibility of a bonus added to the orange selling price in the international market). In the 2018/29 crop, the first bids were around 20 BRL per box.
Although cautious at first, citrus growers accepted to trade in mid-November, fearing that bidding prices could drop in the following months. Early purchases have been a strategy of large-sized processors since 2016 (when they started closing deals in October, although the 2017/18 crop was one of the largest in all times).
PRODUCTION – Citrus growers believe that the 2019/20 crop will be positive, based on the weather, which favored plants development during blossoming and fruitlet settlement. The main blossoming, which occurred between August and September in most orchards, were large.
In mid-December, the wide temperature range led part of the fruitlets to drop in some regions, mainly in late orange orchards, which are more sensitive to the weather. However, citrus farmers believe these losses should not be significant to the next season results. Still, some growers do not expect a super crop and believe the volume harvested will only recover in 2019/20; others forecast a 40% increase compared to 2018/19.
TAHITI LIME – The tahiti lime volume forecast to be harvested during the crop peak in São Paulo State, in the first quarter of 2019, is also positive. According to Brazilian agents, production may be higher than that from 2018, since the rains in the second semester last year were more frequent and well distributed.
Despite the higher supply, the demand from processors may help to underpin the prices paid to growers, controlling availability in the in natura segment. The good exports performance should also help to underpin tahiti lime quotes, even during the crop peak – shipments may continue at a fast pace, due to the firm demand for the fruit, mainly from Europe, where consumption has been increasing.
Easy-Peeler Orri Jaffa expected to see 70 % sales growth in North American Markets
The Plant Production and Marketing Board of Israel predicts that 2019 will see significant increase in exports of the Orri Jaffa mandarin to the US and Canada. The organization set goals for expanding export of its leading, easy-to-peel mandarin in response to the increased demand for high-quality, easy-peelers.
The Jaffa Orri is a mandarin developed by scientists at the Israeli Volcani Research Center. This easy-to-peel mandarin retains an excellent, fresh, sweet flavor with a fleshy texture, and mouthful juiciness, while bearing virtually no seeds. It also carries a particularly long shelf life and appears later in the season compared to other easy peelers – from January into May.
The American citrus market has been growing significantly in recent years and is composed largely of imports. The mandarin sub-category is the largest in the citrus category, accounting for some 40 % of the citrus market. More than 230 thousand tons of easy-to-peel mandarins are shipped into the US annually, at a total value of more than $1 billion. This is in addition the 1 million tons produced locally.
Data from studies conducted in recent years confirm a doubling of per-capita consumption of easy-to-peel mandarins in the past two decades. This coincides to a significant increase in the intake of easy-peelers in the American market, mainly in place of traditional oranges. In recent years, this phenomenon has led to a sharp upsurge in the import of easy-peelers to America, leading to the establishment of new groves.
“The US market for easy-to-peel mandarins is substantial and holds promise as a developing target market for Israeli citrus exports,” says Tal Amit, Director of the Citrus Division in the Plant Production and Marketing Board of Israel. “The success of easy-peeler mandarins in particular can be easily credited to the fruit’s great flavor and unbeatable convenience.”
Over the past five seasons, citrus exports from Israel to North America have increased from 3,000 tons to 9,000 tons last season, of which about 5,300 tons are easy-to-peel mandarins. This season, export of Orri Jaffa mandarin alone is expected to reach 9,000 tons, constituting a potential 70 % growth.
In spite of this significant rise in consumption of the mandarins in the US, consumption per capita is among the lowest in the world, about 2.5 kg per year. But based on the rapidly increasing demand, that figure is forecast to double. In Canada that figure is almost doubled exceeding 4.6 Kg per capita.
Orri Jaffa mandarin currently is exported to 45 countries worldwide. Most of the yield is exported to Europe (78%). The most prominent outlets in Europe of the popular fruit are: France (39 %), the Netherlands, Scandinavia and Russia (7 % each). About 18 % of the fruit is shipped to North America, and 4 % to Asia Pacific.
The Plant Production and Marketing Board of Israel was established in 2004 to assist farmers in advancing their agricultural missions. The board promotes the Jaffa brand and other registered citrus industry brands. It helps kick-start pioneering R&D projects, executes centralized crop protection initiatives, assists organizations in meeting phytosanitary standards and insures growers against weather-related losses.
Bibliography: CIRAD report Agriculture Research for development, Fruitrop, November 2017
All Oranges 77.0 Million Boxes
The 2018-2019 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 77.0 million boxes, unchanged from the November forecast. If realized, this forecast will be 71 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 32.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 45.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2008-2009 through 2016-2017 seasons. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to those 9 seasons unless noted. The hurricane affected 2017-2018 season is excluded from the regressions.
Non-Valencia Oranges 32.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is unchanged at 32.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below the minimum and projected to be below the minimum at harvest. Current droppage is above average and is projected to be above average until harvest. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is unchanged at 800 thousand boxes, and is 3 percent of the non-Valencia total. Final Navel size is below average and droppage is close to the maximum.
Valencia Oranges 45.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is unchanged at 45.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below the minimum and is projected to be below the minimum at harvest. Current droppage is above average and projected to be above average at harvest.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
All Oranges 77.0 Million Boxes
The 2018-2019 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is lowered to 77.0 million boxes, down 2.00 million boxes from the October forecast. If realized, this forecast will be 71 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 32.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 45.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2008-2009 through 2016-2017 seasons. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to those 9 seasons unless noted. The hurricane affected 2017-2018 season is excluded from the regressions.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Despite the firm sales prices, lower orange production in the 2018/19 crop from the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) should constrain the revenue of farmers who trade with processors, since the lower number of boxes produced per hectare tends to push up the unit price. Only in southwestern SP, where production has not changed much, revenue may remain at high levels.
According to data released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) on September 10, this crop should be 31.4 % smaller than the previous (2017/18), totaling only 273.3 million boxes (40.8 kilos) of oranges. This volume is 5.2 % lower than that first forecast by Fundecitrus in May.
Lower production estimates confirm the initial expectations of the agents consulted by Cepea, who believe that the performance of the current crop may have been compromised by both the high rate of flower loss from the first blossoming (between August and October/17) and the lack of rains in the first semester of 2018. Fundecitrus has reported that the average weight of all varieties is lower than that forecast in May, because of the severe drought (May – July).
Lower domestic supply, in turn, has boosted orange prices to processors this year. Besides, inventories from the 2018/19 crop should again decrease to critical levels by June 2019, according to forecasts from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters), totaling only 146.7 thousand tons of juice, the second lowest in the CitrusBR series, which started in 1988/89, and only enough for two months of exportations.
After the new estimates were released, prices have been stable in the spot market, at 24 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at the processor. However, quotes had already increased last month, when CitrusBR anticipated that estimates from Fundecitrus could be revised down. Despite the smaller amount available for crushing, the average yield is forecast to be higher than in the previous crop, due to the dry period in the citrus belt from May to July (CitrusBR).
Most farmers have already closed deals with the industry – since November/17, processors’ bidding prices have been up to 22 BRL per box. Thus, if quotes increase at processors from now onward, the few farmers with fruits available will still be favored.
SHORTER HARVEST – The new report from Fundecitrus has highlighted that the 2018/19 crop harvesting may end earlier, which, in turn, may push up orange quotes in early 2019, when supply is usually low. So far, 36 % of the oranges from that crop have been harvested, 2 percentage points above the same period last season.
IN NATURA MARKET – The low supply of fruits with the quality demanded by the in natura segment underpinned orange prices in the first fortnight of September. Thus, from September 3 to 14, pear orange quotes averaged 30.81 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 10.6 % up compared to that in the first fortnight of August.
In the market of tahiti lime, supply is low, which increased quotes in the first fortnight of September – in the first week of the month, prices surpassed 90 BRL per 27-kilo box. Between September 3 and 14, tahiti lime quotes averaged 67.42 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, a staggering 83 % up compared to that in the same period last month.
On the other hand, higher quotes have constrained exportations, due to the competition with the fruits from Mexico. According to Fresh Plaza website, tahiti lime shipments to Europe usually step up starting June, both from Brazil and Mexico.
In general, the exportation season for tahiti lime was positive in the first semester, but shipments decreased in both July and August, according to Secex, by 21.5 % and 8.2 %, respectively, compared to the same months of 2017. From January to August this year, exports totaled 76 thousand tons, a slight 0.4 % down compared to the same period last year.
Citrus utilized production for the 2017-18 season totaled 6.13 million tons, down 20 percent from the 2016-17 season and 66 percent lower than the record high production of 17.8 million tons for the 1997-98 season. Florida accounted for 36 percent of total United States citrus production; California totaled 59 percent, and Texas and Arizona produced the remaining 5 percent.
Florida’s orange production, at 45.0 million boxes, is down 35 percent from the previous season. Grapefruit utilization in Florida, at 3.88 million boxes, is down 50 percent from last season’s utilization. Florida’s total citrus utilization decreased 37 percent from the previous season. Bearing citrus acreage, at 400,900 acres, is 9,800 acres below the 2016-17 season.
Utilized citrus production in California decreased 7 percent from the 2016-17 season. California’s all orange production, at 45.4 million boxes, is 6 percent lower than the previous season. Grapefruit production is down 9 percent from the 2016-17 season and tangerine and mandarin production is down 19 percent. Utilized production of citrus in Texas is up 9 percent from the 2016-17 season. Orange production is up 37 percent from the previous season but grapefruit production was unchanged. Lemon production in Arizona is down 35 percent from last season.
The value of the 2017-18 United States citrus crop decreased 7 percent from last season, to $3.28 billion (packinghouse- door equivalent). Total value of production for 2017-18 is lower for all citrus crops. Orange value of production decreased 9 percent from last season and grapefruit value is down 14 percent. Tangerine and mandarin value of production is 1 percent higher than last season but lemon value of production is down 6 percent. Beginning in 2016-2017, tangelos are included in tangerines and mandarins for Florida.
Overall comparisons discussed above are based on similar fruit types. The revised production and utilization estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Estimates for the 2017-18 California Valencia oranges and grapefruit are preliminary, since the marketing season is not complete at publication time. Revisions to the utilized production estimates for all citrus for the 2017-18 season will be published in the April 2019 Crop Production. …
The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is unchanged this month at 45.0 million boxes. The total is comprised of 19.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 26.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production is unchanged at 3.88 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 700,000 boxes are white and 3.18 million boxes are the red varieties. The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast remains at 750,000 boxes.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
All Oranges 45.0 Million Boxes
The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 45.0 million boxes, down slightly from the April forecast. The total includes of 19.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 26.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges.
Non-Valencia Oranges 19.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is finalized at 19.0 million boxes. Harvest is complete for the included varieties. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is 500,000 boxes, 3 percent of the non-Valencia total.
Valencia Oranges 26.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is unchanged from the April forecast. Weekly certifications in April were between 2.4 million and 2.9 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted April 30 to May 1, 2018 showed 89 percent of the Valencia rows are harvested. Estimated utilization to May 1, including an allocation for other use, is 21.2 million boxes. Processors were surveyed regarding fruit processed through April 30th and the estimated quantity remaining to be processed to the end of the season. Analysis of the Row Count Survey, estimated utilization to the first of the month, and the processors report support holding the Valencia orange forecast.
All Grapefruit 3.95 Million Boxes
The forecast of all grapefruit production is lowered 50,000 boxes to 3.95 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is lowered 50,000 boxes to 700,000 boxes. The red grapefruit forecast is unchanged. Estimated utilization to May 1, with an allocation for non- certified use, of white grapefruit is 700,000 boxes and of red grapefruit is 3.25 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted April 29 to May 1, 2018, indicated harvest is complete for these varieties.
Tangerines and Tangelos 750,000 Boxes
The forecast for the tangerine and tangelo production is lowered 20,000 boxes to 750,000 boxes. If realized, this production level will be 54 percent less than last season’s production. Utilization is over for all tangerines and tangelos this season.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Fresh orange production is estimated at 480,000 metric tons (MT) in 2017/18. Australia is a counter- seasonal exporter of mainly Navel oranges to north-Asian markets such as China and Japan while the United States exports Navel oranges during Australia’s off-season. Post forecasts orange exports to reach 230,000 MT in 2017/18. Orange juice production and concentrate imports are forecast to remain stable.
Production of fresh oranges is forecast at 480,000 metric tons (MT) in 2017/18, the same as the previous year, assuming average seasonal conditions. Australia is a counter-seasonal exporter of mainly Navel oranges to north-Asian markets such as China and Japan, as the United States exports Navel oranges during Australia’s off-season from December to February. Post forecasts orange exports of 230,000 MT for 2017/18. Post’s new export estimate is a 27 percent increase from 2016/17 driven mostly by an upsurge in demand from China. Imports of Navel oranges, mainly from the United States, are expected to be steady in 2017/18 at 20,000 MT.
Please read more under: gain.fas.usda.gov
All Oranges 46.0 Million Boxes
The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 46.0 million boxes, down 4.00 million boxes from the November forecast. If realized, this forecast will be 33 percent less than last season’s production and the least since the 1944-1945 season of 42.2 million boxes. The forecast consists of 19.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 27.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2007-2008 through 2016-2017 seasons. For those previous 10 seasons, the December forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 6 percent, with 8 seasons above and 2 below, with differences ranging from 16 percent below to 16 percent above. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons unless noted.
Non-Valencia Oranges 19.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is lowered 2.00 million boxes to 19.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and is projected to be above the maximum until harvest. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is lowered to 500 thousand boxes, and is 3 percent of the non-Valencia total. Final Navel size is below average and droppage is well above the maximum.
Valencia Oranges 27.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is reduced 2.00 million boxes to 27.0 million boxes. If realized, this will be the smallest Florida Valencia crop since the 1949-1950 season. Current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest.
All Grapefruit 4.65 Million Boxes
The forecast of all grapefruit production is unchanged at 4.65 million boxes. If realized, this forecast will be 40 percent less than last season’s production and the least recorded since the 1918-1919 season. The white grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 850 thousand boxes. The red grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 3.80 million boxes. Projected fruit size of white grapefruit at harvest is above average while projected droppage is above the maximum. Projected fruit size of red grapefruit at harvest is projected to be above average and droppage is projected to be above the maximum.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Total orange1 crop forecast update is 385.20 million of boxes
The orange production forecast update of the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt for the 2017-2018 season, published on December 11th, 2017 by Fundecitrus with the cooperation of Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is 385.20 million boxes, weighing 40.8 kg each. This figure corresponds to an increase of 2.98 % compared to the update published in September/2017 and an increase of 5.69 % in relation to the initial May/2017 forecast. Out of the total crop, about 29.43 million boxes are estimated for the Triângulo Mineiro region.
The data collected as of the publication of this forecast update show that the fruits harvested from all varieties in this season have an average weight above that of the initial forecasts. The forecast in May 2017 was that each fruit would weigh by harvest time an average of 154 grams; however, in September 2017, the unit weight rose to 158 grams and now is at 162 grams. The weight gain was the main reason which caused increased production in early varieties in September 2017 and continues to be the determining factor for the increase in mid-season and late varieties of this update. The fruit droppage rate is confirming to be high vis-à-vis the crop standards in the citrus belt, in line with the initial forecast, since the variation since May 2017 did not decrease even by half percent point from the estimated value. The positive result so far was triggered mainly by rainfall above historical levels at the beginning of the season, which again fell at producing regions in October, reaching an average of 147 mm, and 227 mm in November, after the drought which lasted from July to September, with only an accumulated total of 47 mm for the quarter, according to Somar Meteorologia’s weather forecast. In addition to the weather, the good performance of the harvest is related to greater intensity of crop management at the groves, which can be evidenced by the increased demand of inputs used in their nutritional and phytosanitary management as seen in the last year in citrus growing. …
1 Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Valencia Argentina, Seleta, Pineapple Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2 Exact Sciences Department, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal.
Please download the complete forecast: www.fundecitrus.com
All Oranges 54.0 Million Boxes
The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 54.0 million boxes, 21 percent less than last season’s final production. The total includes 23.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 31.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The Navel orange forecast, at 600 thousand boxes, accounts for 3 percent of the non-Valencia total.
The estimated number of bearing trees for all oranges is 48.9 million. Trees planted in 2014 and earlier are considered bearing this season. Field work for the latest Commercial Citrus Inventory was completed in June 2017. Attrition rates were applied to the results to determine the number of bearing trees which are used to weight and expand objective count data in the forecast model.
The citrus growing region was drought-free at the start of the 2017-2018 citrus growing season. In January, the region started showing abnormally dry conditions. By February, bloom had begun and was full in some areas. Other areas held off and showed only light and scattered bloom. In March, the Southern citrus growing area was in moderate drought conditions, while the Northern area remained abnormally dry. During these times of dry weather, citrus groves required the use of irrigation systems. Temperatures were above average for the majority of the season. Precipitation returned for the summer months to keep all areas drought-free. In September, Hurricane Irma made landfall in Florida at Marco Island and went up through the Western side of the citrus belt. The hurricane left some areas flooded and extremely wet.
A 10 year regression has been used for comparison purposes. For those previous 10 seasons, average actual production is 124 million boxes. The initial forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 6 percent, with 8 seasons above and 2 below, with differences ranging from 2 percent below to 19 percent above.
The procedures used in this forecast are the same as used in past seasons. The methodology is described on page 5 of this report. All references to “average,” “minimum” and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom.
Non-Valencia Oranges 23.0 Million Boxes
The non-Valencia forecast of 23.0 million boxes is 30 percent lower than last season’s production. The estimated number of bearing trees (without Navels) is 19.6 million. The estimated fruit per tree for early-midseason oranges is 741, a decrease of 3 percent from last season. Projected fruit size is below average, requiring an estimated 289 pieces of fruit to fill a 90-pound box. At 48 percent, droppage is well above the maximum.
Based on fruit population, the prorated forecast shows a decrease of 4.21 million boxes in the Western area compared to last season. The combined other areas show a decrease of 5.79 million boxes.
The Navel forecast of 600 thousand boxes is 25 percent lower than last season’s production. If realized, this will be the lowest in a series dating back to 1979-1980 when separate Navel forecasts began. The estimated number of bearing trees is 913 thousand, down 2 percent from the previous season. The estimated fruit per tree is 252, an increase of 15 percent from last season. Projected fruit size
is slightly above average, requiring an estimated 139 pieces of fruit to fill a 90-pound box. Projected droppage is well above maximum at 49 percent.
Valencia Oranges 31.0 Million Boxes
The Valencia forecast of 31.0 million boxes is 13 percent lower than last season’s production. The estimated number of bearing trees is 28.4 million, down 2 percent from the previous season. The estimated fruit per tree is 510, an increase of 13 percent from last season. Projected fruit size is below average, requiring an estimated 237 pieces of fruit to fill a 90-pound box. Projected droppage is well above the maximum at 45 percent.
Based on fruit population, the prorated forecast shows a decrease of 3.20 million boxes in the Western area compared to last season. The combined other areas show a decrease of 1.55 million boxes.
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
