The Brazilian exports of orange juice increased in the 2022/23 season (July/22 – June/23), after fading for two consecutive seasons. According to data from Secex, Brazil exported 1.09 million tons of the product (Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice FCOJ Equivalent) in the 22/23 crop, 9 % up the volume shipped in the previous season. The revenue received from these shipments totaled USD 2.1 billion, a staggering 28 % up, in the same comparison.

Although the consumption of orange juice is not increasing in the major destinations of the Brazilian product – and despite the low national inventories –, the United States had higher import needs in the last years, due to the steep production decrease in Florida – mainly in the current season, 2022/23 –, which had been facing the effects of greening and was hit by hurricanes late last year.

According to Secex, the Brazilian exports of orange juice to the US have increased high this season, totaling 340.9 thousand tons, 69 % higher than the volume shipped in 2021/22. Revenue totaled USD 701.9 million, a staggering 93 % up, in the same comparison. As production is not expected to rise high in Florida in the short term, the US may continue with high imports needs, and Brazil is the number one supplier of orange juice in the world.

In a report released in June, Florida Citrus Department confirmed higher imports to the US: between Oct/22 and Apr/23, the country doubled the volume of FCOJ imported from Brazil compared to that in the previous season; of NFC (Not-From-Concentrate) orange juice, shipments rose 82 %.

EUROPEAN UNION – To the European Union, the number one destination of the Brazilian orange juice, exports totaled 569.6 thousand tons in the 2022/23 season, 8 % less than that shipped in the previous season. Revenue totaled USD 1.13 billion, 9 % up, in the same comparison.

Orange supply has been low in Brazil since early 2023. In April, the pear oranges available in the market were the ones that ripen out of the usual period. However, the ones that were harvested earlier are not well accepted by consumers in the table market, since they did not reach the ideal maturation stage.

Despite low supply, pear orange prices weakened, due to the arrival of early varieties, such as hamlin, westin and rubi, to the market. Last month, the average price for pear oranges closed at BRL 46.87 per 40.8-kg box (on tree), 3.08 % lower than that from March but still 11.56 % higher than that in April last year, in nominal terms.

As the availability of pear oranges is low, many farmers – majorly in northern SP – tried to anticipate the harvesting of early varieties, aiming to take advantage of the current firm prices and make cash flow during the inter-harvest.

Ponkan tangerine

The prices for ponkan tangerine dropped last month too. While in March, supply was low, in April, the harvesting stepped up. Still, availability was not that high. The average price for ponkan tangerine closed at BRL 64.07 per 27-kg box (on tree) in April, 8.56 % lower than that in March but 40.6 % up from that in April/22, in nominal terms.

Tahiti lime

Opposite to the scenarios observed in the markets of oranges and ponkan tangerine, for tahiti lime, prices are on the rise, boosted by low supply – as the peak of harvest took place in the first bimester of 2023, supply in lower now.

The 2022/23 orange season in the citrus belt (São Paulo State and the Triângulo Mineiro) is ending, while the oranges from next season are still green. Thus, the volume of oranges being processed at the plants in SP has been low. Considering large-sized plants, only three of them were processing oranges in March. In the same period last year, the scenario was the same, while in 2021, only one plant was in operation, which confirms that industrial activity is still high for this time of the year.

However, one of these plants is forecast to end activities in April, since orange availability is low. So far, the prices paid by the industry in the spot market have been around BRL 38.00 per 40.8-kg box (harvested and delivered). Considering the oranges from the new season (2023/24), bids have been higher, at BRL 40/box, however, the farmers consulted by Cepea reported some deals at BRL 42/box.

Most of the oranges from the 23/24 season has been sold. Thus, the number of fruits available in the spot market in 2023/24 will be low. However, processors’ needs are high, since their juice inventories are low.

As for the oranges not purchased yet, agents from processors reported that farmers are not rushing to sell them, since quotations have been firm in the table market, which may lead them to send the ripen fruits to this segment. These fruits may also be sent to small-sized plants that produce whole juice, which continue to process fruits and are paying up to BRL 45/box. However, for the production of whole juice, quality requirements are usually higher.

Orange processing in the 2023/24 season is forecast to begin in mid-May at large-sized processors. However, only from June onwards the volume is expected to increase.

The Brazilian exports of orange juice are on the rise in the current season (2022/23). According to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), between July/22 and Feb/23, Brazil exported 776.3 thousand tons of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent, 14 % more than that shipped in the same period of the previous season. Revenue totaled USD 1.5 billion, 34 % higher, in the same comparison.

The higher increase in the revenue than in the volume exported highlights the higher average price paid for the commodity exported by Brazil. Data from Secex show that the quotations for the national FCOJ Equivalent rose 22 % between the last and the current seasons, and for Not-From-Concentrate juice, 7 %.

Exports to the European Union, the number one destination for the Brazilian orange juice, have decreased 2 % this season, while revenue has increased 16 % because of the recent valuations.

To the United States, exports are on the rise. In the current season, 240 thousand tons of the product have been shipped to this destination, a staggering 82 % up from that last season. Revenue more than doubled (+ 110 %), totaling USD 478.7 million. With shipments to the EU being stable and the increase to the USA, the share of the Brazilian juice in the total imported by the USA rose from 19 % in 2021/22 to 31 % in 2022/23.

It is important to mention that America’s high demand for the Brazilian juice is linked to the fact that the 2022/23 orange season in Florida has been compromised by the high incidence of greening and natural disasters, such as hurricanes and frosts.

The processing of the oranges from the 2022/23 crop is beginning to slow down in Brazil, but it is still higher than the usual for this time of the year. In February, five plants – of the large-sized processors – were operating, the same as that last year but much more than that in 2020 and in 2021, when only a single plant was processing oranges.

According to Cepea collaborators, last year, the orange harvest was delayed, which explained the higher volume being processed in February. However, in the 2022/23 season, late processing is due to rains, which are hampering crop activities – although workers manage to get into the groves to harvest oranges, transportation is being difficulted.

The end of processing is still uncertain. Agents from processors reported that planning has been postponed because of the difficulties in crop activities. So far, some plants are expected to continue to process oranges in March.

A frequent concern among agents from processors is the yield of the oranges being harvested, majorly in 2023. They reported that, with frequent rainfall, the quality of the fruits for juice production has decreased, raising the number of boxes needed to the produce a ton of concentrated juice – higher moisture raises water absorption by fruits.

As for prices in the spot market, they were up to BRL 38.00 per 40.8-kilo box (harvested and delivered to processor) in February, considering large-sized companies. At smaller-sized processors, the prices paid for pear and late oranges reached BRL 40.00/box.

For the new crop (2023/24), whose processing is expected to begin in May/June, bids from large-sized processors have been up to BRL 38.00/box. Agents from processors reported that, despite the increase compared to the first bids for the 2022/23 crop, farmers expected higher prices, and, thus, many of them postponed deals.

ORANGE JUICE – Despite the valuation of concentrated orange juice at ICE Futures in recent months, there have not been major reflexes on processors’ revenue. According to Cepea collaborators, most of the juice is being sold through contracts with fixed prices. Since Jan. 1st, the contract due in March has valued 19%%, closing at USD 3,543/ton on Feb. 23rd.

TAHITI LIME – Tahiti lime processing was high in February but is expected to slow down in March. The company that processes tahiti lime aims to receive lower volumes of the fruit in the coming weeks. In February, two plants were receiving tahiti lime, but from March onwards, only one of them is expected to keep activities going. The prices paid by large and small-sized processors for tahiti lime are between BRL 12 and BRL 14/box.

Flowers of the 2023/24 crop, verified in the second semester of 2022, were considered excellent in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro, which resulted in expectations of a good harvest. However, the weather after flowers blossomed was not ideal in many areas. Therefore, the next season may register lower supply compared to the demand.

Areas that have irrigation system (44 % of the total is located in the north of São Paulo state) registered anticipated flowers (in mid-July), and the weather was good after the blossoming. In this case, the development is considered satisfactory.

In other areas, however, scenarios were very distinct, since the rainfall was irregular and at different volumes among the regions. In the southwest of SP, flowers blossomed in late September, while it occurred in mid-October in other areas. In this case, as flowers opened in the rainy season (September/October), there had been more cases of blossom-end rot (“estrelinha”), increasing flower abortion.

Another aspect that reinforced concerns of the citrus sector in Brazil is the below-average amount of rainfall in many regions during the flower-settlement (especially in November), and temperatures were high in some moments. Thus, fruitlets dropped. From mid-December until now, rains have been more frequent, which brings relief, but are not capable to revert the scenario of losses.

In general, players expected that the 2023/24 season would be higher than the current; however, after many difficulties, opinions have started to change. The USDA released a report in December indicating that the Brazilian production may total 305 million 40.8-kilo boxes, 1.9% less compared to the current crop. It is important to mention that a more accurate forecast for 2023/24 will be possible only in mid-February.

Therefore, the scenario of low inventories at the end of 2022/23 may not be reverted in the next season. CitrusBR says that the ending stocks by June/23 may total only 140 thousand tons, lower than the strategic level, of 250 thousand tons.

Cepea calculations indicate that, in order for the volume in stocks by the end of 2023/24 (in June/24) returns to the strategic level of 250 thousand tons, the orange processing in 2023/24 may be at roughly 300 million 40.8-kilo boxes, which is equivalent to a production in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro at 340 million boxes, higher than what the USDA forecast.

TAHITI LIME – The first two months of 2023 may register high supply in São Paulo state, due to the peak period, which can press down quotations. On the other hand, as the industry may intensify processing activities and exports tend to increase in this period, the volume available is expected to reduce in the domestic market.

The ending stocks of orange juice ended the 2021/22 season at low levels (on June 30th, 2022), according to data released this week by CitrusBR. And even if orange production increases in the 2022/23 season, the volume of juice stocked by the end of the crop is not expected to be high.

According to CitrusBR, the ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent totaled 143.1 thousand tons at the end of the 2021/22 season, almost 55 % lower than that in the previous crop and below the strategic level (250 thousand tons).

CitrusBR estimates juice stocks to total 140 thousand tons by the end of the 2022/23 crop, in June 2023. Despite the increase in the number of oranges allocated to the production of juice, industrial yield is expected to be lower than that last season – it is important to consider that, in the 2021/22 crop, rainfall was not that frequent, which favoured yield.

According to CitrusBR, the Brazilian exports of orange juice to the United States may increase, due to the low orange production in Florida, which is keeping low the American stocks of juice.

This scenario confirms the high industrial demand for oranges in the current season (2022/23). However, next season, the demand from juice processors is expected to continue high – to replenish stocks, at least partially. Thus, juice prices are on the rise abroad.

Cepea estimates that, for the volume stocked by the end of the 2023/24 season (in June 2024) to return to the strategic level of 250 thousand tons, orange processing during that season needs to be around 300 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms, which accounts for an output of 340 million boxes in São Paulo State + the Triângulo Mineiro. This calculation considers stable juice sales, of a million tons, and the average yield of the five previous crops.

However, since the beginning of Fundecitrus surveys, in 2015/16, orange production has surpassed 340 million boxes in only two seasons: 2017/18 and 2019/20. Since then, the area with orange groves has shrunk. On the other hand, groves were renewed in that period, which tends to favour productivity and production.

Amid low rainfall in São Paulo State since the end of the Summer (in late March), farmers have been concerned about the effects of the current lack of moisture on orange trees. According to Inmet (Brazilian Institute of Meteorology), it has not rained in SP for 50 days, the longest drought since 2012. To make things worse, last month was the hottest July in SP in all times.

For the oranges still on tree (from the 2022/23 season), although major damages have not been reported, the drought is concerning. In dry-land groves, some fruits wilted, reducing both quality and size for the in natura market, making them only suitable to the industry. Besides, some oranges and leaves fell off due to high water stress.

Also, the effects of greening on oranges have increased this year in many Brazilian areas. It is important to consider that, according to Fundecitrus, last year, greening affected 22.37 % of the orange trees in SP, the highest average.

On the other hand, the lack of rains is necessary to cause groves some water stress, which is crucial for blooming. According to Cepea collaborators, in northern SP, where groves are irrigated, many farmers began irrigating the plants in mid-June, and trees are now beginning to bloom. In these areas, conditions have been favourable so far. In dry-land groves, blooming is expected to occur as soon as it rains in the citrus belt.

BRAZILIAN MARKET IN JULY – The demand for citrus increased in Brazil in July, favoured by the atypical warm weather during the month. On the other hand, although the orange harvesting was in full swing in SP last month, industries’ purchases were high, which pushed up quotations.

The 2022/23 harvesting of early fruits is advancing in São Paulo state. In this scenario, industrial processing activities are following the harvesting pace and requiring more fruits.

According to players from the industry, the ratio of early fruits has improved and practically all fruits have been allowed for delivery, both in the spot market or for contracts. The industrial yield, however, is still low, which is common at the beginning of the crop.

Crushing activities are now taking place in eight processors in São Paulo: Araraquara, Araras, Bebedouro, Catanduva, Colina, Conchal and two in Matão. The companies have already been receiving some volumes of pera orange, but the majority is early fruits – the pera orange availability tends to increase from mid-September onwards.

In the spot market, values are ranging from 27.00 and 28.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, harvested and delivered at the processor. As for contracts, quotations may hit 31.00 BRL per box in big companies. In small processing companies, values are at 35.00 BRL/box.

As observed for other agricultural products, the production costs of citrus farming have increased sharply in Brazil, due to higher inputs prices, majorly fertilisers. This scenario is concerning farmers in Brazil, considering that citrus production was low in the two previous seasons, which resulted in higher costs per unit.

Even if productivity and production increase in the 2022/23 season – compared to that in 2020/21 and 2021/22, because of the slightly more favourable weather –, higher inputs prices are expected to limit a possible reduction in the production cost per unit. Thus, profit margins may be lower than the expected, despite orange valuations in 2022/23 – so far, the ceiling orange price is at BRL 32.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered to processing plant (considering only large-sized processors).

Tight profitability may continue to constrain investments in both crops’ renewal and replating, mainly because shorter-cycle crops, such as soybean crops, are currently more attractive and bring better opportunities to farmers.

Last year, after five consecutive years of stability, the area allocated to citrus farming shrank in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro (citrus belt), according to data from Fundecitrus, which may happen again in 2022.

Lower profit margins may also hamper adequate crop management in the citrus belt. Lower investments in crops’ renewal and replanting added to difficulties related to crop management may reduce orange production even more in the mid-term. Low supply may underpin prices, since the stocks of orange juice at the processing plants in SP are not high, and production needs to be higher for inventories to be replenished.

Citrus market

The domestic demand for oranges has not been high enough to raise prices. According to Cepea collaborators, many purchasers are trying to pay lower prices, putting farmers off selling oranges in the domestic market.

Brazilian citrus farmers claim that, if prices drop lower than the current levels, sales in the in natura market will become unviable. Currently, juice processors are bidding prices up to BRL 32/box (harvested and delivered). Although the values paid by processors include the harvesting and freight, the quality standard required by this segment and the risks of default are lower, making sales to the industry more attractive.

In this scenario, if the demand from processors continues high and prices, attractive, sales to the in natura market are expected to decrease, at least during the Winter and the beginning of Spring, when supply increases, while demand decreases. Also, most oranges have not reached the ideal maturation stage yet, allowing farmers to wait and sell the oranges when the processing activities in the 2022/23 season begin, forecast to late May/early June.

The harvesting of early oranges is expected to advance in May, which may raise supply and press down quotations. In general, availability has been growing since mid-April, weakening prices.

In April (until April 28th), the average price for pear oranges closed at BRL 42.10 per 40.8-kilo box (on tree), a slight 4.96 % down from that in March (BRL 43.00/box). Before that, values had increased for two months.

On the other hand, for early oranges, quotations were firm in April – the average price for rubi oranges closed at BRL 35.71/box, 3.63 % higher than that in March. As the values for this group of oranges have been lower than that for pear oranges, the competitiveness of early oranges has increased.

For the coming weeks, if prices drop, sales tend to increase, since demand may be higher. However, if values decrease too steeply, farmers may reduce the harvesting, since the oranges on tree have not reached the ideal maturation stage yet. Thus, citrus farmers may prefer to wait for the beginning of activities at processing plants. The industry’s purchase proposals for the oranges from the 2022/23 season have been up to BRL 32.00/box (harvested and delivered).

Although two plants of the large-sized processors were processing oranges in late April, activities were slow because of low supply. By the end of last month, only one plant was purchasing early oranges (as long as ratio is near or higher than 14).

The prices for Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent rose high at ICE Futures in the first fortnight of April, reflecting the current low world supply, majorly in Brazil and in Florida (USA). Between April 1st and 13, the May/22 contract for orange juice increased by 20 %, and in 2022, by more than 30 %, closing at USD 2,650/ton on April 13.

Indeed, orange production (and juice production) in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo State and the Triângulo Mineiro) decreased in the 2021/22 crop, which is practically over. According to a report released by Fundecitrus in the first half of April, the Brazilian citrus belt is expected to harvest 262.97 million boxes (40.8-kilograms) of oranges, 10.6 % down from the first estimates (May/21) and 2.2 % lower than that in the previous season.

This context will influence the Brazilian supply of orange juice, since the citrus belt is the major orange-producing region in Brazil. In February, Citrus BR estimated that, by the end of the season (in June 2022), the national stocks of orange juice (forecast at 127 thousand tons) will not be enough to ensure the world supply until the new crop (2022/23) steps up.

The same scenario is observed in Florida, where production estimates were revised down by the USDA by 19 % compared to the expected in Oct/21, to 38.2 million boxes, 28 % lower than that last season.

Lower production in the current and in previous seasons is reflecting on local stocks. According to the Florida Department of Citrus, from the beginning of the 2021/22 crop, in Oct/21, to March 26, 2022, the stocks of FCOJ were 31 % lower than that in the same period of the previous season. For not-from-concentrate orange juice, stocks were 25 % lower.

In this context, although the United States did not increase imports of concentrated orange juice – which decreased by 4.6 % between Oct/21 and Jan/22, according to the Florida Department of Citrus –, they increased purchases of not-from-concentrate orange juice. Brazil supplied 85 % of all the not-from-concentrate orange juice and 71 % of the FCOJ imported by the USA.

These estimates for Brazil and the USA explain the recent valuations of orange juice at ICE Futures. In both countries, supply is not expected to recover in the coming season (2022/23).

In the Brazilian citrus belt, although orange production may increase slightly, a higher harvest would not be enough to raise stocks and ensure world supply, since the current volume stocked is very low. In Florida, with the high incidence of greening on orchards (which has been lowering the average productivity of orange trees) and the smaller area with orange orchards in the state in the last years, production is not expected to return to the levels observed in previous decades.

The weather has been favouring the development of the 2022/23 orange crop. In general, frequent rainfall (since mid-October 2021) is helping the oranges to grow bigger and, thus, agents expect productivity to recover from the two previous seasons, when the volume harvested was low.

According to Cepea collaborators, the general scenario has been more favourable this year. Although the first blooming was late in some orchards (in mid-September in irrigated orchards and in October in dry land, after the return or rains), the number of flowers was considered positive, complemented by other blooming in the following months. Besides, the fruits set rate was high, favoured by rains followed by sunny days most of the time.

It is important to highlight that the damages caused by the long drought in the last two years (and frosts in some areas last Winter) were not completely offset, however, orange trees are currently more vigorous, leading agents to believe that productivity will be higher this season. Still, agents have distinct estimates about the harvest: some, who are more pessimistic, expect 300 million boxes to be harvested, while others, more optimistic, believe it will hit 350 million boxes. However, most of them expect something between 300 and 350 million boxes.

The only available estimates were released by the USDA in December, indicating the crop in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro to total 305 million boxes (15.5 % higher than that in 2021/22). Agents are waiting for Fundecitrus’s estimates, to be released in May.

It is worth to mention that, despite the production increase, orange supply is expected to be tight in the 2022/23 season, due to the high demand from processors to replenish juice stocks – which are forecast at 127 thousand tons by the end of the 2021/22 season, in June 2022, according to estimates from CitrusBR. Still according to CitrusBR, this volume will not be enough to meet the world demand until the new season steps up.

In that scenario, even if the volume produced is near the expected by the more optimistic, there should not be an orange surplus, which justifies the high prices bid by processors for 2022/23.

This scenario may also limit supply in the in natura market along the season, however, this would not ensure higher prices, since the purchase power of many consumers in Brazil is weak because of the current high inflation and the national economic scenario.

Tahiti lime prices faded in São Paulo State in the first fortnight of March. According to Cepea collaborators, the current hot weather in Brazil has been favoring consumption, however, supply is high, due to the peak of harvest. Thus, quotations were pressed down.

However, many farmers reported that supply is beginning to decrease. The harvesting, which has been in full swing since mid-January, is expected to slow down until the end of March.

During the peak of harvest in 2022 (January – March), the quotations for tahiti lime have been lower than that in the same period of 2021. From the beginning of the year until March 10th, the average price for this variety closed at BRL 21.92/box, harvested, 1.8 % down from that in the first quarter of 2021, in nominal terms. Only in January/22 prices were higher than that in Jan/21.

The lower volume to be harvested in the coming weeks is expected to limit processing. By the end of the first fortnight, four plants were operating in SP, paying from BRL 18 to BRL 20.00 per 27-kilo box, harvested and delivered to processors.

EXPORTS – Brazilian exports of lemon and lime have been high this year. According to Secex, in the first two months of 2022, Brazil shipped to all destinations 22 thousand tons of lemons and limes, 17.1 % up from that in the same period last year, only lower than that in the first bimester of 2020. Revenue total USD 17.3 million, 11.9 % up in the same comparison. Despite higher volume and revenue, the average price (in dollar) paid for the fruit is lower than that from the same period of 2021.

In February, exports performance was a record for the month, favored by high supply in SP and higher quality of the fruits (because of recent rainfall). According to Secex, Brazil shipped 11.8 thousand tons of lemon and lime in February, 13.4 % up from that in Feb/21. Revenue totaled USD 9.2 million, 9.5 % up, in the same comparison.

Orange prices increased in the Brazilian in natura market in the first fortnight of February. According to Cepea collaborators, frequent rains in the citrus belt (São Paulo State) favoured the quality (majorly the size) of oranges, making them suitable for sale in the in natura segment and allowing farmers to raise asking prices. Besides, rainfall also hampered the harvesting, limiting supply. In that scenario, values remained firm.

Usually, orange availability is not high in February – a month that may even be considered offseason –, however, as the 2021/22 season is late, supply is currently higher. Still, there is not an orange surplus in the domestic market, since processing at industries has been faster than usual this month.

So far, the number of early varieties to be harvested is not high – activities are expected to step up only from March onwards. However, supply may be constrained by the low flower set in the first blooming. Thus, the oranges currently available in the in natura market are mostly late varieties and pear oranges out of the ideal period.

TAHITI LIME – The production of tahiti lime is also being favoured by rains, however, farmers reported difficulties to harvest the fruits, which underpinned prices in the first fortnight of February, although it is currently the peak of harvest for tahiti lime in Brazil.

Despite the recent valuations for oranges and tahiti lime, Cepea collaborators have reported that the current economic scenario in Brazil is still constraining higher price rises. With high unemployment and inflation rates and lower income, the purchase power of many consumers is weak.

ESTIMATES – Although rains have favoured the quality of part of the fruits in orchards, they have not been enough to reverse all the damages caused by the drought to the oranges from the 2021/22 season.

According to data from Fundecitrus released on Feb. 10, the orange output (São Paulo + Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2021/22 season is still estimated at 264.14 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms, the same as that estimated in December, but 10 % below that forecast at the beginning of the season.

According to Somar/Climatempo (weather forecast agency), rainfall in SP between May/21 and Jan/22 was 25 % below the average for the period. In the Triângulo Mineiro, rains were 5 % higher than the average. Thus, orange growth was hampered, and the average fruit weight decreased. However, it is important to consider that the oranges harvested in February and in March 2022 are expected to be slightly larger, since they have been favoured by recent rains.

The volume harvested is still enough to replenish ending stocks at the processing plants in SP. According to CitrusBR, by the end of the 2021/22 season (in June 2022), the volume of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (Equivalent) stocked is expected to total 170 – 190 thousand tons, lower than the strategic level (250 thousand tons). It is important to consider that new estimates are supposed to be released until the end of February.

In this scenario, the harvest in 2022/23 needs to be large enough to raise stocks at least to the strategic level and thus prevent a world shortage of orange juice. Cepea calculations show that the orange output next season needs to total, at least, 330 million boxes in order to raise juice stocks to 250 thousand tons.

PROGRESS OF THE 2021/22 HARVESTING – According to Fundecitrus’ report, 82 % of the orange orchards had been harvested by mid-January/22, similar to that in the same period last season (81 %).

In 2021, orange prices were high in São Paulo State (SP) and in the Triângulo Mineiro. In general, the industry in SP kept the demand high for fruits, and the low production limited the supply throughout the year. Although the remuneration (in BRL per box) had been higher, the profitability for many citrus growers was restricted, given that the limited productivity increased the cost of production per unit even more.

Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) indicated, in its estimate released in December/21, that the production in the citrus belt may reduce 1.7 % compared to 2020/21, totaling 264.14 million 40.8-boxes. Even with the positive biennial cycle in the 2021/22 season and the higher fruit load, oranges have presented a smaller size, which explains the lower production.

From May to August 2021, rainfall accounted for only 30 % of the regular volume for the period, according to data from Somar Meteorologia/Climatempo. Fundecitrus says that this scenario affected even irrigated orange groves (which correspond to 30 % of the citrus belt), due to the limited water supply in tanks. In some areas, frosts in July worsened the situation. Besides the small-sized oranges, the premature fruit drop was one of the worst in history.

Due to the low supply of fruits, orange juice processors boosted prices compared to the 2020/21 season. In the partial of the crop (from July to December/21), the average price in the spot market was 27.50 BRL/40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at the industry, for a nominal increase of 22.5 % in relation to the same period last year.

EXPORTS – As expected, orange juice (volume equivalent to concentrate juice) shipments finished the 2020/21 season with a 7 % decrease in relation to the previous (2019/20). From July/20 to June/21, shipments to all destinations totaled 1.03 million tons, according to data from Secex. The revenue, in turn, amounted 1.54 billion USD, 15 % down compared to the season before.

IN NATURA MARKET – Orange prices hit nominal records in most part of 2021. Increases are attributed to the limited supply in the 2021/22 crop, because of the low volume of rainfall and high temperatures in the second semester of 2020 and the low humidity in 2021. From the second semester of 2021 onwards, the low quality of fruits (due to a long period of dry weather and frosts in July) reinforced the upward trend. In the partial of the crop (from July to December/21), the average price for pear oranges (in natura) is at BRL 39.52/40.8-kilo box, on tree, 20 % up from the average in the same period in 2020, in nominal terms.

TAHITI – The price trend was atypical in 2021. Values were low in the first semester and in some periods of the second part of the year, and peak prices were less intense. From January to December, the average price for tahiti lime was at BRL 25.19/27-kilo box, harvested, 31.3 % lower compared to that in 2020.

The current number of flowers in the orange orchards in São Paulo – which will give origin to the fruits from the 2022/23 season – is considered satisfactory in most citrus-producing regions within the state. In general, while in irrigated orchards blooming was observed from September onwards, in non-irrigated orchards, flowers were only observed in October, after the late arrival of rainfall.

Agents have been concerned about the possible effects of the lack of rains this year on the vigor of orange trees, since low moisture may hamper fruit set, increasing the rate of fruitlet fall in irrigated orchards and, largely, in the orchards in dryland.

According to forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 90 % chance of La Niña forming in Brazil until the end of 2021. If this is confirmed, rainfall in the coming months may be lower than usual in the southeastern region of the country. However, La Niña is forecast to be weak in Brazil.

This scenario may have a negative influence on the output from the 2022/23 season, since the development stage of plants in the coming months demands good amounts of water. With estimates for low ending stocks of orange juice in the 2021/22 season, the output from 2022/23 needs to be high in order to ensure comfortable inventories for world supply.

Cepea calculations show that, for ending stocks in the 2022/23 season (June 2023) to return to the strategic level of 250 thousand tons, the output next season needs to surpass 330 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each. In this context, the average productivity would have to be around a thousand boxes per hectare, which has only been observed in seasons favored by the weather.

The price for pear oranges has been on the rise in Brazil since the beginning of the season, in June, influenced by the low supply of oranges in the market. In the second fortnight of October, pear orange prices surpassed BRL 50.00/40.8-kilo box, on tree, setting a new nominal record in the series of Cepea. The monthly average in October (in São Paulo State) closed at BRL 49.88/box, on tree, 10.1 % up from that in September/21 and 28.3 % above that in October/20, in nominal terms.

Agents in the Brazilian citrus sector did not expect supply in the 2021/22 season to be high, based on the effects of the weather on blooming and flower set. However, along the season, weather issues increased, with rainfall below the ideal and frosts in some locations at the end of July.

Although rains were more frequent in October, agents reported that the oranges were mostly small-sized, which kept the prices for larger-sized fruits on the rise – since this standard is required in the in natura segment. From November onwards, quality may increase, and a higher number of late oranges is expected to be available in the market. On the other hand, high purchases from the industry are also expected to control supply in the in natura market.

TAHITI LIME – In the Brazilian market of tahiti lime, the return of rains favored production and raised supply. Besides, the quality of the fruits continued low, and the exports pace was slow in October. Thus, prices for this variety dropped in the orchards in SP, averaging BRL 23.15/27-kilo box, harvested, 21.8 % down from that in September.

ORCHARDS – The rains that hit São Paulo State in October favored blooming in orange orchards, largely in dryland or those that had not bloomed yet. According to citrus farmers, the scenario varied among regions, according to the volume of rain and the production system (irrigated or dryland), but, in general, all agents agree that blooming was satisfactory.

As in previous seasons, this year’s flowering has been irregular and heterogeneous. While in some regions, orchards bloomed earlier (in September), in others, flowering was observed in October. However, the early flowers were compromised by the hot and dry weather in many areas, which led some of the fruitlets to fall, even in irrigated orchards.

Citrus farmers believe this will be another season of multiple blooming, which would hamper both the harvesting and management of trees because of the different development stages of flowers – as it happened in most Brazilian regions in the last years.

Although flowering brought some relief to citrus farmers in all regions, it is important to consider that plants are still debilitated, due to the long drought, which may hamper fruit fixing. Thus, the success of the recent blooming will depend on the weather from now onwards (high moisture interleaved with sunny periods) and preventive care for blossom-end rot. According to Cptec/Inpe (weather forecast agency), rains may be lower than the average in November and in December, which may be a reflex of the La Niña phenomenon, and hamper flower set.

The return of rains to important citrus-producing regions in São Paulo State (SP) cheered up farmers about flower development. However, it is still early to estimate results for the 2022/23 season, since the set of fruitlets will depend on the weather along October and more flowers may open until the end of the month.

According to data from Inmet (National Institute of Meteorology), rainfall is expected to average 50 mm in most citrus-producing regions in October.

ORANGE MARKET – The trading pace for oranges was slow in the Brazilian market in the first fortnight of October because of the holiday on the 12th. Higher rainfall is expected to improve the quality of the fruits on tree, although they have not reached the ideal standard to be sold yet. This scenario added to low supply pushed up orange prices in that period.

TAHITI LIME – In the market of tahiti lime, prices faded in the first half of October, reflecting the small size of the fruits available, which is not appreciated in the in natura market. In the second week of the month, values increased slightly, influenced by higher demand during the holiday (on the 12th), which surprised farmers.

ORANGE JUICE EXPORTS – The Brazilian exports of orange juice are on the rise in the current season (2021/22). According to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), between July and September, Brazil exported 278.9 thousand tons of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent to all destinations, 19 % up from that in the same period last season. Revenue increased more sharply, by 32 %, reflecting the higher prices paid for the product, totaling USD 440.8 million. Of the total volume shipped this season, 20 % were sent to the United States – the volume exported to the USA has increased by 33 %, and the revenue received from the country, by 51 %.

Estimates about the 2021/22 orange season in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) have been revised down, due to weather issues in Brazil. Data released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in September estimated the harvest to be 8.9 % lower than that forecast in the first report, released in May, at 267.87 million boxes. In light of that, the output may be similar to that in the previous season (268.63 million boxes). Although the 2021/22 season is a positive biennial cycle, oranges have been smaller, which explains lower production.

Although the estimates from May considered rainfall below the average, weather issues have increased since then, with frosts and severe drought. Between May and August, rainfall accounted for 30 % of the usual for the period, according to data from Somar/Climatempo Meteorologia (weather forecast agency).

The lack of rains has been damaging majorly the plants in dryland, however, agents from Fundecitrus highlight that even irrigated orchards (which account for 30 % of the trees in the citrus belt) have been debilitated by the drought, due to the limited availability of water at reservoirs. It is important to mention that the scenario has worsened since the frosts in late July.

Besides the smaller size of the oranges, the rate of premature fall of fruits is one of the highest. As the weather is forecast to continue unfavourable until the end of the season, the scenario is not expected to change, raising expectations for low production in 2021/22. Also, the chance of La Niña phenomena to occur until late 2021 is high, which may result in lower rainfall in southeastern Brazil in the second semester. This scenario would limit the growth of late varieties.

INDUSTRY – With the probable lower harvest of oranges in the 2021/22 season, the number of fruits allocated to processors is supposed to be lower too. CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) has not revised processing estimates yet, but Cepea forecasts the industry to purchase around 225 million boxes of oranges (40-8 kilograms each) this season. If this is confirmed and sales of orange juice are near the usual, juice inventories are expected to decrease steeply, to less than 200 thousand tons (Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice Equivalent), even with higher yield at processing plants, which usually happens in years of low rainfall.

This context will demand high orange production in the 2022/23 season (higher than 330 million boxes) so that ending stocks are replenished with no risk of world shortages. This situation may favor the prices paid to farmers in Brazil.

In early September, orange trees bloomed in some orchards in São Paulo State (SP). These flowers will become the fruits from the 2022/23 season. Cepea collaborators reported higher blooming in irrigated orchards, majorly in northern and northwestern SP.

However, citrus farmers have been concerned about the effects of the weather on flower settlement. In dryland orchards, which count exclusively on rainfall for moisture, precipitation has been insufficient to trigger blooming.

According to Somar Meteorologia (weather forecast agency), rainfall was low in the major citrus-producing regions in SP in the first half of September. Thus, while it does not rain significantly, farmers are investing in plant nutrition in order to help on fruit set.

During fruit set (after blooming), temperatures and soil and air moisture deeply influence production. However, in the last years, high temperatures and rainfall below the average were common, limiting the output, largely in non-irrigated orchards.

Climatempo (weather forecast agency) forecasts rains for the second fortnight of September, and rainfall is expected to be within the average in the month in most citrus-producing regions in Brazil, except in southern SP. On the other hand, according to NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), there is a 70 % chance that La Niña phenomena may return to Brazil until the end of 2021.

In Brazil, La Niña increases rainfall in the northeastern region and delays precipitation in the south. In southeastern BR, the scenario becomes similar to that in the southern area of the country, which concerns agents, in light of the current drought. For citrus farming, this delay may cause more damages to the 2022/23 harvest, since the coming months are critical for the development of trees, when higher moisture is needed.

BRAZILIAN MARKET IN SEPTEMBER – The demand for oranges increased in the in natura market in the first fortnight of September, favored by high temperatures and the payment of workers’ wages early in the month. As regards supply, the hot and dry weather in SP continued to limit the availability of high-quality fruits in the market (most of them are wilted and small-sized). In this scenario, prices increased.

By the end of the 2020/21 season, in June 2021, the inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) equivalent at Brazilian processors totaled 316.93 thousand tons, according to data from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released in mid-August. Compared to that at the end of the 2019/20 season, inventories decreased by 33 %. This reduction was already expected by agents, due to the slower crushing pace of oranges in 2020/21, when orange production was low.

CitrusBR avoided releasing estimates for the current season because of the weather issues (extended drought in the citrus belt and frosts in late July) in the major citrus-producing regions in Brazil, which are still concerning agents. However, ending stocks in the 2021/22 season (by June 2022) may be lower than the strategic level.

So far, considering Fundecitrus’ (Citrus Defense Fund) production estimates from May, of 294 million boxes (40.8 kilograms each), the volume processed may be around 250 million boxes. In that scenario, Cepea data indicate that ending stocks in the 2021/22 season (which ends in June/22) may not be enough to generate a world surplus of orange juice.

Also, agents in the Brazilian citrus sector believe that the estimates from Fundecitrus will be revised down, due to the drought and frosts in Brazil. In this context, the volume processed may be revised too, and juice inventories may be even lower. Thus, processors will depend on higher orange production in 2022/23 to, at least, replenish inventories – which is a concern too, considering that the effects of the weather may be extended to the coming season, since many trees are currently debilitated.

As regards orange processing, the crushing pace for the fruits from 2021/22 was fast in August at the large-sized plants in São Paulo State (SP), with mostly pear oranges being crushed.

Orange processing is expected to last until mid-February/March 2022, with less plants in activity compared to that in the second semester of 2021, however, with higher volumes being produced than that in the same period of previous years, because of the delay in the development of trees (due to weather issues) and irregular flowering. It is worth to consider that the 2021/22 season is expected to have higher volumes of fruits from the third and fourth flowering events (altogether) since Fundecitrus began estimating crops, in 2015/16 – making it a late crop.

BRAZILIAN MARKET IN AUGUST – The demand for oranges was low in the Brazilian market in August, constrained by the current high price levels and lower quality of the oranges available (small-sized and wilted). Still, prices increased, boosted by low supply.

The intense cold observed in São Paulo State (SP) in late July hit the orchards located in the citrus belt, with frosts registered in some areas. This scenario increased agents’ concerns about both orange production in the current season and the vitality of trees in the coming season – it is worth to mention that agents were already worried about these factors because of the lack of rains this year.

These agents are concerned about the vitality of the trees in all the groves hit by the recent frosts, since they are nearing the period of flower induction already debilitated by the lower rainfall in the last two years. However, it is worth to mention that it is still early to assess the damages caused by the bad weather, majorly the effects on the volume to be harvested next season.

Considering the current season (2021/22), the quality of the oranges on tree is expected to decrease, since some of the fruits affected by the frosts in late June/early July are dry and crystalised in the inside – these are undesired traits for both the in natura and the industrial segments, since the oranges have almost no juice in that condition. Besides, fruits dropped down in the areas that were already debilitated by the drought.

As regards next season (2022/23), the younger trees (which are currently sprouting) are expected to be the most damaged by the frosts. In the irrigated groves where flowering was anticipated, the effects of the bad weather are a concern too, since flowers may have been burned, as well as small fruits. It is worth to highlight that the recent frosts were not homogeneous, and it is still impossible to affirm that the volume to be produced in 2022/23 will be affected.

PONKAN TANGERINE – Although ponkan tangerine is more sensitive to temperature swings, the volume to be harvested in SP is not forecast to be affected, since the harvesting is practically over. On the other hand, in Minas Gerais, the volume to be harvested is higher, and there may be negative effects on the quality of the fruits.

TAHITI LIME – For this variety, although damages have not been assessed yet, concerns are higher, since tahiti lime is very sensitive to weather changes. Besides, differently from oranges, whose groves are mostly in the ripening stage or being harvested, development is at different stages among the regions with tahiti lime, with some of them in the flowering stage. According to Cepea collaborators, the intense cold caused the drop of some small fruitlets, flower buds and flowers.

Orange juice (volume equivalent to concentrate juice) exports finished the 2020/21 season downing 7 % compared to the previous (2019/20). From July 2020 to June 2021, shipments to all destinations totaled 1.03 million tons, according to Secex. The revenue, in turn, amounted 1.54 billion USD, for a decrease of 15 % in relation to the season before.

The low performance is related to the smaller orange supply in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro), but players from the industry say that international prices (in USD) were not very high. On the average of the season, prices of the concentrate juice (which accounts for most of the revenue obtained) were 11 % lower, according to Secex. On the other hand, NFC (not-from-concentrate) values were 8 % higher in the same comparison. It is important to mention that the dollar valuation favored the revenue in Real (BRL).

The decrease was mostly influenced by the European Union, a major purchaser of the Brazilian product: it imported 649.95 thousand tons, 13 % down compared to the season before. The revenue was 982.86 million USD, for a decrease of 20 % in the same comparison.

Exports to the United States, in turn, increased. In general, besides consecutive reductions in the orange production in Florida (limiting local inventories), the pandemic scenario has favoured the demand in some periods, due to the healthy aspect of consuming the product. Shipments totaled 198.34 thousand tons in the 2020/21 season, 13 % up compared to the previous. The revenue rose 7 %, totaling 297.53 million USD.

As for the 2021/22 season, which starts in July, Brazilian exports may again be limited due to smaller orange production and low pace of consumption. However, the economic recovery is likely to favour sales.

The volume of orange juice stocked at Brazilian processors in the 2020/21 season (June 2021) is expected to be higher than the strategic limit (250 thousand tons). On the other hand, in the 2021/22 season (June 2022), the volume stocked may be lower than that.

As regards the 2020/21 crop, a report released by CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) on June 9 indicates that the inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent may total 310.759 thousand tons in June 2021, 34 % down from that in the same period of the 2019/20 season, but 14 % up from that previously estimated (in February 2021).

In the 2021/22 season, although oranges still need to ripen, juice inventories are likely to decrease, despite the possible recovery of production forecast by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund).

Although this scenario is not a threat to world supply in the 2021/22 season, it has been concerning agents about availability in the following season (2022/23), since production would have to be higher in order to avoid a lack of juice. However, with the recent area reduction in the Brazilian citrus belt, production should hardly surpass 350 million boxes. Thus, the prices paid to orange farmers in Brazil are likely to continue at high levels, at least until next season.

ORANGE AREA IN BRAZIL – The crop forecast survey released by Fundecitrus in late May surprised agents from the Brazilian citrus sector. The area allocated to orange groves in the 2021/22 season had its second largest decrease – in terms of both hectares and percentage – since the beginning of the PES project, in 2015/16.

In the 2021/22 season, the area allocated to orange groves might total 379.4 thousand hectares, 16.262 hectares smaller (- 4 %) than that in the previous season.

According to Fundecitrus, one of the reasons for this decrease is the drought, which is becoming more and more severe in Brazil, majorly in the current season. Thus, area reductions were more significant in the citrus-producing regions of São Paulo that had low rainfall in the last couple of years, with the worst effects observed in non-irrigated, condensed and rootstock groves, which are not that drought-resistant. In these groves, productivity decreased sharply last season, and many plants died. Besides, the current high prices of some commodities, such as corn, soybean and sugar, have attracted farmers.

This area reduction should considerably lower the productive potential of the citrus belt to around 340 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms in years of good productivity (1,000 boxes per hectare, on average).

BRAZILIAN MARKET IN JUNE – The weak demand for oranges in the in natura market of SP along with the current low temperatures pressed down orange prices in the first fortnight of June. However, expectations are for limited price drops or even price rises as processing steps up, reducing supply in the in natura market, largely of early varieties.

With the anticipation of the drought and rainfall below the average in the first quarter of 2021 in São Paulo (SP), the development of the oranges from the 2021/22 season is below the expected, majorly in non-irrigated groves. At the current stage of groves development (fruit enlargement), moisture is crucial, which is warning farmers about the volume to be harvested this season.

So far, it is believed that production will be small, but larger than that in the 2020/21 season (due to the weather in the second semester of 2020 and its effects on flowering and settlement).

Besides the number of fruits, which is not forecast to be high, citrus farmers have been concerned about quality issues that may occur because of low moisture. The top complaints are related to size (since fruits may take longer to reach the ideal size) and wilted oranges (riper fruits), largely pear and early oranges. On the other hand, until the end of April, fruit drop, which may also be worsened by the lack of rain, was not significant, according to farmers.

In order to avoid higher quality loss, some farmers may accelerate the harvesting, even if the oranges have not reached the ideal size and ripening, which may hamper sales and constrain price rises.

INDUSTRIAL YIELD – On the other hand, industrial yield may be favored by the lack of rainfall in citrus-producing regions, since less boxes of oranges may be necessary to produce a ton of concentrated juice.

The supply of early citrus fruits was increasing in São Paulo State (SP) in late March, while the demand from juice processors was lower, and businesses were facing a new period of restrictive measures to fight covid-19 in Brazil.

Although estimates do not point to an extremely high availability in April, supply should still be higher than that in March, since more early oranges should reach the ideal maturation stage to be harvested this month. As for demand, besides the new restrictive measures, logistic issues were constraining purchases from wholesalers and retailers in Brazil.

Among the major changes in food services during the covid-19 pandemic are the halt in school meals, which highly demands in natura oranges, and the closure of bars and restaurants, where the demand for juice is high. Thus, in March, fruits were mostly sold to supermarkets.

PRICES – Although orange prices were still high in March, underpinned by lower supply, they decreased late in the month. The average price for pear oranges in March was 38.71 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 2.7 % down compared to that in February. For hamlin oranges (early variety), the average closed at 29.48 BRL/box, on tree, practically stable in the same comparison.

According to Cepea collaborators, some farmers anticipated the harvesting of pear oranges, aiming to take advantage of the current price levels – these agents are aware of the forecasts for higher supply of early oranges in the market from April onwards and, thus, fear quotes may drop in the coming weeks.

In the Brazilian market of tahiti lime, which is also largely sold to bars and restaurants, the decrease in the demand and the slightly higher supply pressed down quotes in March. Besides, the pace for exports and crushing slowed down.

The average price for tahiti lime closed at 20.60 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 32.8 % down from that in February. However, despite this devaluation, prices are currently higher than that last year, due to lower production this season.

The Brazilian exports of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) equivalent are currently 17 % lower than that in the previous season, according to Secex. Between July 2020 and February 2021 (2020/21 season), shipments totaled 670.7 thousand tons. Revenue from these exports totaled 985.19 million USD, 27 % down from that in the same period last season.

Among the major purchasers of the Brazilian juice, the European Union was the one that most reduced purchases. From July/20 to Feb/21, shipments to the EU totaled 419.7 thousand tons, 22 % down from that in the previous season. Revenue totaled 626.44 million USD, 32 % down in the same comparison.

Exports to the United States have been more stable, totaling 135.83 thousand tons, very similar to that from the previous season. Revenue totaled 201.62 million USD, 8 % down in the period.

The third production estimates for the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2020/21 season, released by Fundecitrus on Wednesday, February 10, indicates that orange supply should total 269.01 million boxes of 40.8-kilograms each. This volume is 6.52 % lower than that initially estimated and 30.45 % below that in the previous season. This is also the worst annual decrease in all times.

As low supply has been confirmed, orange prices continue firm in the Brazilian market. According to Fundecitrus estimates, 81 % of the fruits had been harvested up to mid-January. The harvesting of pear oranges has reached 82 % of the volume forecast, and for the late varieties (valencia, folha murcha and natal), 75 %.

According to Fundecitrus, the biennial production cycle and the unfavorable weather (drought and high temperatures) in the second semester of 2019 (flowering) and 2020 (fruit-filling stage) led to the current crop failure. The report from Fundecitrus also points that, although rainfall was higher in the citrus belt in December 2020 (8 % up from the average), it was lower, irregular and short in January, due to the La Niña phenomenon.

Thus, the average weight of the oranges harvested was lower – usually, 261 fruits fill up a box, meaning that each orange should weight 156 grams, 8 % down from the average of the last five crops.

PRODUCTIVITY – Low productivity this season has been majorly linked to late varieties and pear oranges. Thus, with lower volumes, the demand from processors continues high, which is controlling both supply and prices in the first months of 2021.

PRICES – In the market of tahiti lime, supply was high in the first fortnight of February, due to the peak of harvest, however, sales were firm. According to Cepea collaborators, the increase of crushing was leading agents from processors to search for fruits in the in natura market, pushing up quotes in São Paulo. It is important to highlight that the supply of lower quality fruits is high, which is discouraging exports.

On the other hand, orange prices were fading in the first half of the February. Despite the beginning of the month (when workers’ wages are paid) and the low supply of high-quality fruits, low demand was limiting sales. Farmers expect demand to increase when the first oranges harvested are available, since their quality should be higher – however, this is forecast for mid-March only.

Price averages of all orange varieties were firm in January in São Paulo state and may continue high in February. The lower production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2020/21 season and difficulties to harvest in some areas, due to rains, underpinned values. Moreover, the supply of high-quality orange was low – most fruits available in January had characteristics unwanted by consumers, such as large size and thick peel.

In January/21, pera rio orange quotes averaged 39.06 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 27.9 % up compared to January/20, but a decrease of 3.6 % in relation to December/20, in nominal terms. As for lima orange, the average was 73.85 BRL/box, 101 % up in the annual comparison, but 8.6 % lower in relation to December/20. Natal orange values averaged 35.07 BRL per box (+29.9 % in one year, but -3.4 % compared to the month before).

Values may continue at high levels to citrus growers in February, mainly for high-quality fruits in the in natura market. The loss of fruitlets and the low rate of established flowers last year that now result in a limited volume of out-of-season oranges favor this scenario. As for the demand, it can increase in February because of high temperatures.

As for the first oranges harvested in the 2021/22 season in Jales, where major flowerings are advanced, they can be available from March onwards. However, due to the dry weather in the second semester of 2020 and the consequent low rate of flowers established, the volume may not be very high.

TAHITI LIME – The peak season in São Paulo continued to press down tahiti lime prices in late January. However, producers reported problems brought by hot weather and rains, which can increase the allocation of fruits to crushing activities and limit the supply in the in natura market.

After the low production in the 2020/21 season, agents expect a limited orange crop in 2021/22 in São Paulo State and the Triângulo Mineiro, due to unfavorable weather conditions. This scenario tends to underpin orange prices in 2021.

The first estimates for the 2021/22 crop, released by the USDA in December/2020, indicate that the harvest in SP and the Triângulo Mineiro should total 315 million boxes of 40.8-kilos each, 17 % up from that in the previous season. Despite this recovery, this volume does not mean the productive potential of crops will be recovered because of the bad weather conditions in these regions.

Thus, a harvest of 315 million boxes is not high, and therefore may not be enough to totally offset orange juice inventories. On the other hand, it should favor farmers’ revenue for one more year, due to the firm industrial demand. It is worth to mention that these estimates may change, since it is still early to assess production, majorly this year. Fundecitrus should release estimates only in May 2021.

INVENTORIES – Data from CitrusBR indicate that initial inventories in the 2021/22 season may be from 240 to 280 thousand tons in July/21. Although this volume is not lower than the strategic level established, the small harvest in the 2021/22 season may limit the volume by the end of the season, in June 2022.

CONTRACTS WITH THE INDUSTRY – Deals for the new season have not been closed. As the volume produced is still uncertain, reasonable prices cannot be fixed either. Besides, in the 2020/21 season, many processors closed deals for the following crop. Thus, a higher volume of fruits from the coming season has already been sold. Still, prices are expected to be positive in this segment, since the demand from the industry should be high.

IN NATURA MARKET – Higher industrial demand should keep orange prices on the rise in the in natura market in 2021/22. As the 2021/22 crop is expected to be late again, the prices of early oranges should be favored, and quotes should be underpinned, since the pear orange crop may be late.

In general, citrus prices were high in São Paulo State in 2020. With the lower orange production in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2020/21 season due to bad weather conditions, the demand from processors for fruits continued high along the year, which underpinned prices.

According to a report released by Fundecitrus on December 10, crop failure in the citrus belt (SP and the Triângulo Mineiro) should be the worst since 1988/1989, when the series began. In total, orange production should be 30 % lower in the 2020/21 season, totaling 269.36 million boxes of 40.8 kilos each.

INDUSTRIAL PRICES – Although processors began the 2020/21 season with high volumes of juice stocked – 471 thousand tons of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent, according to CitrusBR –, low orange supply kept the demand for fruits high, which reflects on bidding prices.

On the average of the 2020/21 season, prices in the spot market between July and November closed at 23.51 BRL/box, 17.8 % up from that in the same period of 2019 and 7 % above that in the same period of 2018, in nominal terms.

IN NATURA MARKET – Higher demand from the industry lowered the availability of fruits in the in natura market, since some farmers who usually sell to the in natura market preferred to allocate their fruits to processors, due to the uncertainties caused by the covid-19 pandemic and the attractive prices bid by processors. This scenario added to the weather issues and high demand pushed up orange prices (in natura) all the year. For the variety pera rio, prices hit the highest level of the year in November, when the average was 43.35 BRL/box, on tree, 54.6 % up from that in Nov/19, in nominal terms.

Although the harvesting of the 2020/21 orange crop is advancing in Brazil, delivery to processors in São Paulo State (SP) was slow in November. According to Cepea collaborators, this scenario is linked to the lack of rains in the citrus-producing regions in SP in the last months, which limited both quality and supply, hampering activities at processing plants. On the other hand, rainfall in late November increased ratio and brix, favoring the juice produced in that period.

As regards the deals for the coming season (2021/22), the large-sized processors of orange juice in SP have been more interested in closing deals. However, bids have not been fixed and there may be an additional for participation in juice sales to the international market. Most citrus farmers are waiting for a better definition of the crop, since it seems the bad weather conditions this year may affect results.

SPOT – In the current season, large-sized processors are bidding prices up to 24.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, while bids from smaller-sized processors have been up to 28.00 BRL/box – late and pear oranges account for the most varieties processed. In November (until Nov. 26), prices averaged 24.46 BRL/box, 20.7 % up from the average in Nov/19, in nominal terms.

However, it is worth to mention that one of the large-sized processors was not closing deals in the spot market in November because of both the low supply of higher quality and larger-sized fruits and the competition with the domestic market, since prices have been attractive in this segment, and farmers are opting for selling fruits in natura.

Orange prices have been on the rise in the Brazilian in natura market this month – the upward trend of quotes has been observed since July. Although the share of late varieties is increasing in the in natura market, in general, supply is low, while consumption is increasing sharply, due to the current high temperatures in Brazil.

Between October 1st and 15th, the average price for pear oranges was 36.52 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 14.7 % higher than that in the first fortnight of September.

Low supply, mainly of high-quality oranges, is expected to keep prices on the rise in Brazil in the coming weeks. Besides, estimates for a 26 % decrease in the output of the 2020/21 crop should be revised, due to the drought and high temperatures in São Paulo State, which should reduce even more the volume harvested compared to the official estimates.

Data released in early October by the ABCM (Brazilian Association of In Natura Citrus) indicate that the 2020/21 citrus crops in São Paulo and in Minas Gerais States are, indeed, going to be lower. The drought faced by the sector in the major producing months hampered the development of fruits, which are small-sized. ABCM reported that, soon, the retail market and distributors may have lower supply of in natura citrus – or even a lack of products.

ABCM entrenches that the high temperatures and low rains between July and August damaged the fruits from the second flowering in the 2020/21 crop, which accounted for most of the output. In this scenario, agents believe that Fudencitrus’ next estimates, forecast to be released in December, may be revised down.

ORANGE JUICE – The 2020/21 orange crop in Florida was damaged by the hot and dry weather, which constrained groves’ productivity. Thus, the American orange output should be lower, which may lead the country to import higher amounts of orange juice. This scenario may favor the Brazilian sector, since Brazil is the top supplier of orange juice to the United States.

Between Oct/19 and Jul/20 (2019/20 season), the USA imported lower volumes of orange juice: 38 % of concentrated juice and 39.5 % of fresh juice, compared to that in the previous season, according to the Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC).

Although the Brazilian juice is losing market share to that from Mexico, the orange harvest from Mexico in the 2019/20 season (Nov/19 to Oct/20) decreased sharply, which may constrain juice production. According to the USDA, the Mexican supply should be 45 % lower than that in the previous season, and orange juice production, 60 % lower. Although initial inventories are high, juice supply should be 50 % lower.

However, it is worth to mention that the crops from São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro should also be lower in 2020/21. According to a report from Fundecitrus released last month, the harvest in the Brazilian citrus belt should total 286.72 million boxes, 26 % down compared to that in the previous season. This volume may decrease even more because of the drought in this region in the past months, which may even reduce supply in the 2021/22 season.

The dry weather and high temperatures in São Paulo State are concerning Brazilian citrus farmers. Besides limiting the supply of higher quality fruits in the current crop (2020/21), this scenario may affect the output next season (2021/22), since trees are very weak, and the current stage (fruit settlement) is very critical – some farmers have already reported fruitlet drops.

Data from Somar Meteorologia (weather forecast agency) show that it rained in southwestern SP (Avaré and surroundings) between May and June, while in central and northern state, precipitation was extremely low. In July, the scenario became worse, with mostly dry weather in all the areas – the monthly average of rains was below 10 mm.

In August, rains returned to SP, but were concentrated in the southwestern region – in some areas, the monthly rain volume hit 140 mm. Thus, this area is the least affected by the weather, with larger-sized fruits and, so far, higher flower settlement (for the fruits from the 2021/22 season). On the other hand, northern SP (Bebedouro and surroundings) has been the most affected region, mainly non-irrigated groves, with many trees almost totally dry and weak. In central SP, the scenario is concerning too, while in eastern SP, the situation is intermediate.

It is worth to mention that, concerning the output in the 2021/22 crop, the current development period is critical and largely influenced by the water availability in the soil, temperatures and air moisture.

Although it is still early to confirm, farmers have reported that settlement of the first flowering (which occurred mostly in mid-July) has been compromised in most regions. New flowering may occur if rains are enough to interrupt the water stress (more than 40 mm). In this context, flowering may be heterogeneous, depending on the region and plants conditions, which would result in trees with fruits in different development stages.

GREENING – High temperatures and low air moisture are also favoring an increase in the psyllids’ population. According to Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund), the incidence of this bug in SP was high in the second fortnight of August, increasing the risk of spread in groves.

BRAZILIAN MARKET IN SEPTEMBER – With the high temperatures in Brazil, the sales pace has been fast in the market of in natura oranges. This scenario and the lower supply of quality fruits (due to low rains) underpinned pear orange prices in September. Between September 1 and 30, the average price for pear oranges closed at 32.78 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 9.2 % up compared to that in August.

In the market of tahiti lime, prices oscillated in September, but drops were more frequent. The number of fruits within the standard required in the in natura market was low, since most of them are wilted and small-sized, due to low rains.

The average price for tahiti lime last month closed at 59.38 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 16% down compared to that in August. With the new devaluations, prices are now lower than that in the same period last year, in nominal terms.

Orange juice inventories ended the 2019-20 season (on June 30, 2020) on the rise, as already expected by agents from the Brazilian citrus market. According to CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters), the volume stocked by then totaled 471.138 thousand tons, a staggering 86 % up compared to that in the previous season, due to the higher orange production.

However, although the 2020-21 crop started with high volumes stocked, production is forecast to be low in São Paulo State and the Triângulo Mineiro, which is keeping firm the demand from processors for oranges. This scenario should lower inventories by the end of the current crop.

A report released by Citrus BR in late August estimates that, on June 30 2021, the inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent from the 20-21 crop will total from 240 to 280 thousand tons, 49 % down compared to that in the previous season.

These estimates consider that around 238 million boxes of 40.8 kilos of oranges will be processed (with 50 million boxes left to be sold in the in natura market), average yield of 268 boxes to produce a ton of FCOJ Equivalent and stable sales, at 1.15 million tons. These results are similar to that estimated by Cepea in May, at 250 thousand tons. It is worth to mention that both estimates (from CitrusBR and Cepea) take into consideration the fact that there may be adjustments in industrial yield, due to the multiple flowerings registered in 2020-21.

According to agents from processors, yield has been low, and much more than the 268 boxes are needed to produce a ton of juice, as estimated by CitrusBR. Although this number tends to decrease along the season, it is concerning, since the prices paid for the fruits have been higher this season, meaning that remuneration for lower quality oranges is currently higher. In this scenario, the only processors that has been purchasing oranges in the Brazilian spot market is bidding prices according to yield: when more than 290 boxes are needed for a ton of juice, prices average 21.60 BRL/box, while for the fruits with higher yield, prices reach 24.00 BRL/box.

BRAZILIAN MARKET IN AUGUST – Despite the weak demand, due to the colder weather, orange prices remained firm in August, underpinned by the lower supply of higher quality fruits in the in natura market. Besides, the fast crushing pace at the large-sized processors in SP helped to reduce availability in the market. Thus, between August 1st and 31, the average price for pear oranges closed at 30.01 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 11.8 % higher than that in July.

TAHITI LIME – Tahiti lime supply was low in the Brazilian market in August, forecast to increase only from mid-September. The fruits that were on tree had not reached the ideal size and maturation to be harvested, since the weather was dry in the last months.

Thus, prices were firm last month, which limited deals in the in natura market of São Paulo State. In August, the average price for tahiti lime was 85.15 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 40 % up compared to that in July.

The 2019-20 exporting season of orange juice and citrus by-products had a good performance. This result was already expected by the agents from the sector, who were based on the higher orange supply in the citrus belt from São Paulo State, which favored inventories building up at processors. With the covid-19 pandemic, agents also reported occasional higher demand for orange juice, due to the nutritional values of the product as well as higher breakfast consumption at home.

As regards orange juice, the volume of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice Equivalent (FCOJ Equivalent) was higher, but revenue remained stable. According to data from Secex, between July/19 and June/2020, Brazil shipped 1.11 million tons of the product to all destination countries. Revenue from these shipments totaled 1.8 billion USD, stable compared to that in the previous season. In Real, revenue totaled 8.09 billion (boosted by the strong dollar), 16 % higher than that received in the 2018-19 season.

Despite the good exports performance to the European Union, the major purchaser of the Brazilian orange juice, shipments to the United States decreased, ending the season with an 11 % lower volume (174.76 thousand tons) and a 19 % lower revenue (276.93 million USD). Brazilian exports to the EU totaled 768.15 thousand tons, 20 % up compared to that in the previous season. Revenue totaled 1.26 billion USD, 7 % up in the same comparison.

As for the Brazilian exports of citrus by-products, revenue in dollar dropped during the season, totaling 369.43 million USD, 25 % lower than that received in 2018-19, according to Secex,. Among the products exported are citrus pulp pellets, citrus terpenes, d-limonene and lemon, lime and orange essential oils. Except for the citrus pulp pellets, prices for all the other by-products dropped sharply during the season.

For citrus pulp pellets, the average exports price increased during the season, but the volume shipped decreased. According to Cepea collaborators, this may be linked to the recent price rises for corn and soybean in the Brazilian market, which boosted the demand, primarily from livestock farmers, for citrus pulp pellets.

BRAZILIAN MARKET – Tahiti lime supply has been low in the major citrus-producing regions in São Paulo State. In this scenario, prices skyrocketed in June, hitting the highest average for the month, in nominal terms, in all Cepea series.

In general, tahiti lime quotes have been on the rise in the in natura market since April, due to the sales increase – related to the covid-19 pandemic – and the slower harvesting pace in May and in June – growers decided to control the harvesting in order to keep prices at higher levels. Thus, in late June, prices rose up to 60.00 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, averaging 32.42 BRL/box in the month, more than two-fold that registered in June 2019 (+124 %).

JULY – In the first fortnight of July, lower supply continued to push up prices in the Brazilian market. In general, quality was considered satisfactory, as well as fruits size and color, which favored exports. It is worth to mention that, in the first semester of 2020, the Brazilian shipments of lemon and lime hit a record for the period – compared to that in the same period last year, the volume exported was 12 % higher, and revenue, 7 % higher.

Between July 1st and 15, the average price for tathiti lime was 52.19 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 59.6 % up compared to that in the first half of June. On the other hand, the demand from the industry continued low, with only two small-sized processors receiving tahiti lime (in Artur Nogueira and Itajobi, both in SP State). Remuneration varied according to quality, ranging from 12 to 15.00 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested and delivered to processors.

ORANGE – The trading pace for in natura oranges was faster in the Brazilian market in the first fortnight of July. Although the demand for pear oranges did not increase much – because of the social distancing advice in many cities in São Paulo State –, the volume of early oranges available in the market decreased slightly (because of purchasers’ firm stance), underpinning prices.

Between July 1st and 15, the average price for pear orange was 26.01 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 3 % up compared to that in the first half of June.

Until May, only one of the large-sized processors was crushing oranges from the 2020/21 crop in São Paulo State (in Araraquara) and in June, three more plants started activities, one in Colina and the other two in Matão.

Although there were more plants crushing oranges in June and processors had started crushing the fruits purchased through contracts, the crushing pace was still slow compared to that in previous crops, due to the crop delay in most citrus-producing regions in Brazil, except for northern São Paulo, where fruits development was more advanced.

Most processors were crushing their own fruits or those previous purchased, however, one large-sized processors was purchasing oranges in the spot market. Bidding prices for pear or early oranges were ranging from 21.60 BRL and 24.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered to processors, depending on fruits yield – when less than 290 boxes are needed to produce a ton of concentrate orange juice, remuneration is higher.

The volume of fruits available in the spot market this season is expected to be low, since the attractive prices paid to growers (up to 26.00 BRL/box) tend to increase the preference for purchases through contracts. It is worth to mention that, according to agents from processors, only a few growers have not traded their fruits from the 2020/21season yet.

BRAZILIAN MARKET IN JUNE – Sales were low in the in natura market in June, due to the colder weather in São Paulo. As restaurants are not working and schools are closed, the demand for larger-sized fruits was higher, resulting in a surplus of smaller-sized oranges. Although these fruits may be allocated to processors, pear oranges quotes did not rise last month. Between June 1 and 30, pear orange prices averaged 25.26 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, stable (-0.1%) compared to that in May.

As regards tahiti lime, agents reported a slight reaction in the demand in late June – both domestic and international. Besides, the harvesting pace was controlled, in order to avoid price drops. Thus, amid lower supply, prices increased in June. The average price for tahiti lime last month closed at 29.49 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 9.9% higher than that in May.

The Brazilian exports of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent (2019/20 crop) are ending, and the volume sold to all destinations continues higher than that last season.

From July/19 to May/20, Brazil shipped 1.03 million tons of juice, 13 % more than that exported in the first 11 months of the 2018/19 season (913.4 thousand tons), according to data from Secex. Revenue, in turn, rose by 1 % (in the same comparison), totaling 1.7 billion USD.

To the European Union, specifically, Brazilian juice shipments totaled 723.7 thousand tons, 23 % up compared to that in the same period last season (587.7 thousand tons). Revenue amounted 1.2 billion USD, for an increase of 10 %. To the United States, Brazilian exports have decreased by 19 % this season, to 154.5 thousand tons, and the revenue downed 25 %, to 248.96 million USD.

Low demand explains the decrease in the volume sent to the US, due to the forecast for a recovery in the 2019/20 season in Florida for the second consecutive year. The state has faced several problems involving weather and plant health this season and in previous crops.

However, due to the covid-19 pandemic, juice sales in the American retail market have increased significantly – data from Nielsen indicate that, this season (from October/19 to April 11, 2020), the volume sold was 6.1 % higher than that in the same period of the crop before.

In this scenario, local juice stocks are being consumed. Although inventories are higher than that in the season before, projections indicating an increase in stocks are lower than those at the beginning of the year.

BRAZILIAN MARKET IN JUNE – The trading pace for citrus was weak in the first half of June, but the volume of oranges available in the in natura market was lower, since processing plants were receiving fruits in that period. Therefore, the average price for pear oranges in the first fortnight of the month was 25.25 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, 4.7  % down compared to that in the first half of May.

Players surveyed by Cepea reported higher sales of ponkan tangerine in São Paulo between June 1 and 15. Thus, the harvesting of this variety stepped up in that period, so that growers could take advantage of the high price levels, although fruits have not reached the ideal maturation stage yet.

Orange supply should continue to increase in São Paulo State in April. Although some oranges among the early varieties were traded in March, this month, availability should grow, offsetting the low supply of pear oranges in the market. Still, supply should not be considered high, since flower settlement in the first flowerings was reduced.

Thus, the upward trend of orange prices, observed until March, has been interrupted. Demand, in turn, should be affected (positively and negatively) by the covid-19 pandemic – on the one hand, citrus fruits are supposed to strengthen immunity, on the other hand, the demand for school meals, company meals and from food services should continue low.

It is also important to mention that the oranges from SP should reach the ideal maturation stage this month, which may allow these fruits to stay longer on trees while demand is low. However, growers tend to opt for closing deals at this time of the year, before availability grows too much (possibly pressing down quotes), from May.

Besides, crushing is currently at a slow pace at the processing plants from SP, and should step up again only in May, when early varieties start to be crushed. Thus, this month, oranges should be allocated exclusively to the in natura market and small-sized processors. However, as the market has been oscillating and uncertain, due to the changes caused by the pandemic, orange prices may rise again, changing the scenario forecast by growers.

TAHITI LIME – As the fruits from the second flowering have ripened, supply should continue high between April and early May. Quality should be high, reflecting the regular rains in March. Still, it should be lower than that available in the first quarter of the year (crop peak period). In this scenario, a considerable supply with fruits within the required standard may continue to favor exports if international demand keeps firm.

In the first quarter of 2020, the Brazilian exports of lemon and lime were records for the period. According to data from Secex, Brazil shipped 34.7 thousand tons of these fruits, a staggering 46 % up compared to that in the same period last year. Revenue, in turn, totaled 25.9 million USD in January, February and March, 42 % higher in the same comparison.

Opposite to the expected by the agents from the Brazilian citrus sector, tahiti lime prices increased in São Paulo State in March, despite the crop peak. The boost came from higher demand, since, in the second fortnight of the month, people were trying to eat healthier, increasing the consumption of vitamin C, because of the coronavirus outbreak worldwide.

However, most of the demand was linked to the increase in the purchases from distributors, retailers and consumers for stocking. Besides, the closure of schools, street markets and grocery stores, and lower sales in restaurants may also reduce the demand for the fruit.

In March, the average price for tahiti lime was 22.2 % higher than that in February, at 12.52 BRL per 27-kilo box.

As regards exports, agents reported a decrease in the volumes shipped, since the coronavirus outbreak affected Europe more severely, so far. Besides, the lower availability of containers for exports and the cancelation of air deliveries also reduced sales to the international market. Thus, tahiti lime prices for exports were lower than quotes in the Brazilian market in March, averaging 12.29 BRL per 27-kilo box.

ORANGE – The demand for oranges was firm in March, and prices remained stable in the Brazilian market. According to growers, the quarantine decree in São Paulo State and the consequent halt in some activities reduced labor, limiting supply and logistic operations. Thus, orange availability was low and, now, many agents are waiting for some early varieties, such as westin and rubi, to ripen in order to start trading.

In March, the average price for pear oranges was 35.35 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 6.9 % up compared to that in February. The maturation stage requested by the in natura market is forecast to be reached in most groves between April and May.

Orange crushing in the 2019/20 crop slowed down in the first fortnight of March at most of the processors in São Paulo State, due to the low supply in the Brazilian citrus belt. Currently, only one plant (in Araraquara) among the three large-sized processors is crushing oranges, primarily early pera rio and late varieties (natal and folha murcha). As usual, this plant should keep activities going until the crushing beginning for the 2020/21 crop.

Besides the lower orange supply, the quality of the fruits allocated to the industry is below the expected. Although yield is considered satisfactory this season, it has been affected by the frequent rains in the first two months of 2020.

BRAZILIAN SPOT MARKET – As both supply and quality decreased in the first fortnight of March, the prices paid for oranges dropped – the quotes paid for the fruits harvested and delivered at processing plants averaged 18.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box in the first half of the month, against 20.00 BRL/box in February.

At smaller-sized processors, remuneration ranged from 18 BRL to 24 BRL per box, according to yield and quality (the processors that make fresh juice were paying higher prices for the fruits).

As regards the oranges from the 2020/21 crop, sales have not started yet – opposite to the scenario in the two previous seasons, when, between October and November, agents from plants started to bid in order to close deals. Uncertainties about the output in the 2020/21 season may be hampering price fixing by processors – it is worth to mention that production estimates should only be released in May.

MARCH – The firmer weather in tahiti lime producing regions favored the harvesting of the variety in the first fortnight of March, which, added to the lower demand from both the international market and domestic processing plants (since a large-sized processors has ended activities), pressed down quotes in that period. Between March 2 and 13, tahiti lime prices averaged 9.86 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 7.9 % down compared to that in the first half of February.

As regards oranges, sales increased in that period, while supply decreased. The growers consulted by Cepea reported the harvesting end for late oranges, which should increase the share of early oranges in the total volume traded this month. In general, the harvesting pace is expected to be slow for these varieties, which may underpin orange quotes in the in natura market. In the first fortnight of March, pear orange prices averaged 34.86 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 6.7 % up compared to that in the same period of the previous month.

PONKAN TANGERINE – The harvesting of ponkan tangerine started in late February in the citrus producing regions from São Paulo State – despite the slow pace. Supply (mainly of higher quality ponkan tangerine) should only increase from the second fortnight of March, when the variety starts to reach the ideal maturation to be traded in the in natura market.

Some growers harvested ponkan tangerine before the ideal maturation for trading, aiming to take advantage of the attractive price levels and the offseason period for pear and late oranges from the 2019/20 crop.

Agents expect the volume of ponkan tangerine to be lower than that in the previous season, based on the dry weather between September and October – when fruits were developing – and on the lower vegetative vigor of plants, after a large crop. In general, production was low in the last years, with well-distributed and sparse crops.

This season, fruits quality should be lower than in 2019, due to the weather. Frequent and high rains in the first two months of 2020 favored the incidence of fungal diseases and rotting after the harvesting.

As orange production is higher this season (2019/20), orange juice inventories should increase again until the end of the crop. According to a report from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released on February 18, ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) equivalent should total 412.83 thousand tons at the processing plants from São Paulo by June 30, 2020. This is the highest volume registered in five seasons (since 2014/15), considering CitrusBR’s historical series.

If this volume is confirmed, it would account for a 63 % increase compared to that in the 2018/19 season (253.18 thousand tons). This scenario was already expected, since orange production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) increased 34.6 % between the last season and the current one, according to Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund).

Of the total volume produced, still according to CitrusBR, 59.7 million boxes (40.8-kilo box) will be allocated to the in natura market and 325.17 million, to processing. The average crop yield is estimated at 270.1 boxes for a ton of FCOJ Equivalent, and the total juice production is forecast at 1.2 million tons.

In August/19, Cepea calculations had pointed to the possibility of inventories to increase at processors to levels similar to that estimated by CitrusBR, at 400 thousand tons.

REFLEXES IN 2020/21 – Although estimates point to a recovery in the volume stocked (the last four seasons closed with lower volumes), the effects on juice inventories in 2020/21 will depend on the amount to be produced in the coming season. However, since citrus growers expect next crop to be at least 30% smaller than the 2019/20, inventories should decrease to lower levels in June/21.

If production decreases, the prices paid to growers by the industry may rise, since demand should remain firm in this segment, despite the high inventories. In the in natura market, quotes may be favored by low supply, since processors should try to purchase the largest possible amount of fruits, to prevent inventories from decreasing to critical levels in June/2021.

MARKET IN FEBRUARY – Orange consumption decreased in the in natura market in the second fortnight of February, due to the rainy weather in some regions of São Paulo State and fruits’ lower quality. However, the low supply of higher quality pear oranges underpinned prices during the month. Between February 3 and 28, pear orange prices averaged 33.06 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 8.3 % up compared to that in January.

TAHITI LIME – The harvesting pace for tahiti lime was fast in February in the major producing regions from São Paulo State. Supply, which has been increasing since December, hit its peak last month, and according to agents consulted by Cepea, it may continue high until late March.

Besides that, rains influenced the in natura market too, hampering activities in the field and lowering fruits quality. Moreover, the sales pace was slow in February, due to the carnival season in Brazil.

Thus, in February, tahiti lime quotes averaged 10.24 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, the lowest for the month since 2017, in nominal terms, and 14.9 % down compared to that in January.

The heavy rains that hit São Paulo State in the first fortnight of February did not result in losses in orange groves, but reduced sales and hampered activities in the field. It is worth to mention that the harvesting pace is usually a lot slower in the first quarter of the year and that many of the fruits available in the market in the first half of the month had undesirable features, such as larger size, thick peel and were beginning to crystalize.

According to Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund), the harvesting of the current crop is ending in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro), having reached 96 % of the area, on average, for all varieties. In pera rio groves, 97 % of the oranges have been harvested, for valencia and folha murcha, 95 %, and for natal, 93 %.

Despite the lower quality in the current off-season period, precipitation should not reduce the output in the 2019/20 crop, but underpin prices in the in natura market – as supply is low, the demand for higher quality oranges should be firm. Between February 3 and 14, pear orange prices averaged 32.68 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 10.8 % up compared to that in the first half of January.

FUNDECITRUS – On February 11, Fundecitrus released their third estimates for the current season (2019/20). According to the report, the output should total 384.87 million 40.8-kilo box, 0.11 % down compared to that forecast in December/19 and 1.03 % lower than the first crop estimates, released in May/19.

According to the report, the rain volume between May/19 and Jan/20 was lower than the historical average in almost all producing regions (except in northern and northwestern SP), which limited growth, primarily for the varieties hamlin, westin, rubi, folha murch and natal. In general, the oranges have reached different sizes among the producing regions in the citrus belt, due to irregular rains.

TAHITI LIME – The rainy weather in São Paulo in the first fortnight of February hampered field activities and helped to control supply (it is worth to mention that, currently, tahiti lime is at crop peak). Still, on the average of the period, tahiti lime prices dropped 18.2 % compared to that in the same period of January, averaging 11.65 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, in the first half of February.

Despite the higher orange supply in the 2019/20 crop, quotes for all the varieties surveyed by Cepea in São Paulo State remained firm in January – similar to the levels observed in January last year, in nominal terms.

This scenario is linked to the lower volume of early and late oranges this season – the fruitlet losses and the lower flower settlement between December/18 and January/19 are now reflecting in a lower amount of early oranges. Prices could even be at higher levels, but the high number of lower quality fruits is constraining the average prices. This scenario helps to widen the gap between quotes.

Between January 2 and 31, the average price for pera rio oranges was 30.53 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, stable (+ 0.3 %) compared to that in Jan/19, but 8.2 % higher than that in December/19, in nominal terms. For the late varieties, natal orange quotes averaged 26.99 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, 2.4 % and 8.2 % up, respectively, compared to that in Jan/19 and Dec/19, also in nominal terms. As regards valencia oranges, the average price in January was 25.47 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, stable (- 0.5 %) compared to that in January/19, but 5.1 % higher than that in December/19.

SUPPLY – In general, the low supply of pear oranges has been reported by citrus growers since late 2019, but there still are remaining volumes of late varieties (mainly natal and folha murcha) available to be harvested in February. Therefore, the low supply of high quality fruits and the high temperatures this month, which usually favor citrus consumption in São Paulo, may underpin prices.

From March onwards, according to Cepea collaborators, the first oranges among the early varieties from the 2020/21 crop should be harvested, but only in the groves where activities have advanced. According to collaborators, most part should come from northern SP, since the weather is warmer in that area, which usually fastens fruits maturation. Still, as the harvest should not be large compared to the usual demand in that period, prices may be even higher in the in natura market.

TAHITI LIME – Growing supply and medium quality influenced tahiti lime quotes in January. From Jan. 2 to 30, quotes averaged 12.04 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 28.1 % down compared to that in the same period last year and 46.9 % lower than that in December/19.

As the harvesting stepped up last month, crushing increased. In late January, four plants were operating, purchasing the fruit between 12 BRL and 14 BRL per box, harvested and delivered to the plant.

EXPORTS – The Brazilian exports of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent increased in the first six months of the current season (2019/20). Between July and December 2019, Brazil shipped 665.85 thousand tons of the product to all dentitions, 22 % more than that from the same period of 2018, according to data from Secex. Revenue from these shipments, in turn, rose 10 % (in the same comparison), totaling 1.13 billion USD.

This result was already expected by agents from the sector, due to both the higher production in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in 19-20 and some bottling plants needs to replenish inventories. It is worth to mention that these increases also reflect the inventory flow from Brazilian terminals to terminals abroad, and not necessarily a sales increase in the same proportion.

To the European Union (the number one destination for the Brazilian juice), Brazil has exported 460.37 thousand tons of juice this season, 30 % up compared to the volume shipped between July and December 2018. To the United States, however, Brazilian shipments are decreasing, due to the crop recovery in Florida in the 18-19 season and perspectives for a positive scenario in the 19-20 season.

Higher orange supply in both Brazil and Florida in 19-20 and lower demand in the United States, in turn, are pressing down orange juice quotes this season.

Brazilian agents expect orange production in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro region to be low in the 2020/21 season. Although lower productivity constrains growers’ revenue, a smaller harvest tends to underpin the prices paid by the industry, despite higher ending stocks in June 2020.

In general, the biggest flowerings (observed in August) were considered positive by most of the growers consulted by Cepea. However, the dry and hot weather between September and October damaged plants and delayed their development during the fruit-fixing period. Besides, new flowerings (although occasional and smaller than that from August) were spotted in early December, favored by November rains.

Thus, trees development has been heterogeneous in the Brazilian citrus belt, even within a single region. However, it is worth to mention that the flower settlement period lasts until mid-January, which makes it difficult to measure the results for the coming season. Besides, the scenario is still uncertain and depends on the flowers that are now opening, the percentage of fixed fruitlet and fruits development in January.

INVENTORIES – Higher orange production in the current season (2019/20) has allowed crushing to be high at the processors from São Paulo State. In this scenario, perspectives for June 2020 indicate higher inventories of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent, possibly surpassing 400 thousand tons, according to Cepea estimates – higher than the strategic level. Isolated, this scenario may press down quotes at processors in the coming season, but, with the low production estimates for 2020/21 in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro, quotes may continue firm.

Thus, in 2020/21, prices should be largely influenced by production – the agents consulted by Cepea believe the harvest will be smaller than 300 million boxes. If that is confirmed, this scenario may stabilize quotes in 2020, since it would keep the demand from processors high, and there would not be pressure on quotes in the in natura market.

Production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) is higher in the 2019/20 season. The demand for fruits, in turn, was firm in 2019 because of low ending stocks of orange juice at processing companies from São Paulo. Therefore, higher demand and the record productivity in the field kept profitability positive. Moreover, the fact that most trades with the industry had been closed previously and at the same price levels observed on 2018/19 also favored profitability.

Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released a report in December indicating that the orange production in the citrus belt may increase 34.7 % in 2019/20, totaling 385.31 million 40.8-kilo boxes. Productivity per hectare is likely to reach 1,041 boxes, a record. The good result is attributed to favorable weather during flower development (in the second semester of 2018) and to the fact that plants recovered after the previous lower production.

INDUSTRY – Prices for the industrial sector concerning the contracts closed in October and November 2018 ranged from 20.00 to 22.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at processors, similar to that in the previous crop, despite the current high supply. However, for the producers who trade with companies in the spot market, values were at 20.00 BRL per box – in the previous season, they reached 26.00 BRL per box.

However, quotes in the spot market increased in December, scenario that may be related to perspectives for lower production in the 2020/21 season. As a result, one of the major processing companies started to purchase fruits at 20.00 BRL per box from December onwards – the average price most part of the crop was 18.00 BRL per box, harvested and delivered. Another major company continued to bid 18.00 BRL per box in the last month of 2019, but the price was 16.00 BRL/box during the season.

INVENTORIES – In 2019/20, the industrial demand was firm, due to low stocks at processing companies in São Paulo, of 253.18 thousand tons of orange juice in June/19, according to CitrusBR. This volume is 26.2 % lower compared to that in the 2017/18 season.

IN NATURA MARKET – Higher orange supply pressed down quotes in the in natura market in 2019. Between July and November, the average price for pear oranges was 29 % below that in the same period of 2018, in nominal terms.

However, the 2018/19 harvest was small, pushing up quotes, which hit nominal records from July to December 2018, considering Cepea series (since 1994). Compared to quotes in the 2017/18 season, price averages between July and November 2019 were 20 % higher, in nominal terms.

EXPORTS – After a season with low shipments, orange juice trades to the international market have recovered in 2019/20. The good performance is linked to the higher production in São Paulo and the possible needs to build stocks from juice bottling companies. In the partial of the season (from June to November/19), 550.13 thousand tons of orange juice were exported to all destinations, 46 % more compared to the same period last crop.

TAHITI – The market behavior was atypical in 2019. Despite the higher production, values were high throughout the year, sustained by firm demands (domestic and international). The average from January to November was 34.58 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, only 4.3 % down compared to that in 2018, in nominal terms.

Brazilian exports of tahiti lime hit a record last year. The dry weather in Mexico, major competitor regarding shipments to the European Union, favored exports good performance.

Higher production estimates for the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2019/20 season were confirmed by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in a report released on Dec. 10. Although estimates were 0.8 % lower than that reported in September, data indicate that the current crop should be 34.7 % larger than the previous, totaling 385.31 million 40.8-kilo boxes of oranges.

According to Fundecitrus, new estimates were based on the lower rains in the citrus belt in 2019 (from May to November). With lower rains and high production, the size of the oranges produced in the citrus belt is shrinking – from 260 fruits per box, estimated by Fundecitrus in May, to 262 in December, 0.77 % down. As regards the drop rate, new estimates increased from 17.60 % to 17.63 %, on average, considering all citrus varieties. If the drop rate remains at this level until the end of the crop, it will be the highest in all times, based on data from Fundecitrus.

Still according to the report, the harvesting of pera rio oranges has already reached 85 %, against 50 % for valencia and folha murcha varieties. Natal orange harvesting, in turn, has totaled 45 % so far. As regards the total volume harvested, 74 % of the 2019/20 crop has been harvested, against 78 % in the same period last season.

This scenario indicates that, although estimates point to a smaller amount of late oranges this year – due to fruitlet losses in December/18 and lower flower settlement in mid-January/19 –, low supply, which is usual at the beginning of the year, may be postponed. The end of pear orange supply has been reported by Brazilian citrus farmers, but there still are some amounts of late oranges (mainly natal) available to be harvested in December and January.

Thus, based on the higher volume forecast for the current crop, agents from processors believe orange crushing will not be interrupted between a crop and the other – although the crushing pace may be slower than that in 2019/20. It is worth to mention that the crushing pace has been fast at processors since the beginning of activities this year, reaching 100 % of the capacity in almost all plants.

MARKET IN BRAZIL – Despite the nearness of the holiday season, when the demand for citrus fruits usually decreases, farmers reported firm demand in the first fortnight of December. According to agents, this scenario may be linked to the beginning of the month, when workers’ wages are paid.

As regards tahiti lime, quotes have been dropping, due to growing supply. According to Cepea collaborators, the supply of small-sized fruits is still high in the market of São Paulo State.

Brazilian exports of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent increased in October for the fourth consecutive month. This season (July to October/19), Brazil has shipped 390.5 thousand tons of the product to all destinations, 19 % more than that exported in the same period last year, according to data from Secex. Revenue, in turn, rose 8 %, in the same comparison, totaling 672.27 million USD.

This result was already expected by agents from the sector, who were based on the needs of bottling plants from the European Union (number one destination for the Brazilian juice) to replenish inventories – it is worth to mention that, last season, national shipments to the EU decreased. This season (2019/20), exports to the EU have already reached 284.3 thousand tons, 25 % up compared to the volume shipped between July and October 2018.

Shipments to the United States continue to decrease – between July and October/19, Brazilian exports to the USA decreased 6 %, totaling only 53.5 thousand tons, still reflecting the 2018/19 harvest offset in Florida as well as perspectives for a positive scenario in the American state in 2019/20.

Brazilian juice exports should continue on the rise in the coming months, due to the higher orange production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) and the needs of European bottling plants to replenish inventories. Shipments to the USA, in turn, will depend on the output from Florida (although greening has been controlled, it still damages local groves).

BRAZILIAN MARKET – The demand for oranges was firm in the in natura market in the first fortnight of November, according to Cepea collaborators, pushing up prices. As regards supply, the low availability of higher quality fruits and the reduction in the pear orange harvesting helped to underpin quotes. Between Nov. 1 and 14, pear orange quotes averaged 28.04 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 31.1 % up compared to that in the first half of October.

As regards tahiti lime, the volume available in the in natura market of SP is increasing – although most are small-sized fruits, which are traded at lower prices. According to agents consulted by Cepea, the gradual supply increase tends to press down quotes from now onwards. Between Nov. 1 and 14, tahiti lime prices averaged 91.37 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 14.3 % down compared to that in the first fortnight of October.

EXPORTS – Brazilian shipments of tahiti lime continue at record levels, both in terms of volume and revenue, favored by the higher supply between April and May. Between January and October/19, exports of lemon and lime totaled 93.3 thousand tons, 13.6 % up compared to that from the same period last year, according to Secex. Revenue, in turn, totaled 78.5 million USD, 3.2 % higher, in the same comparison. As supply increases in Brazil, which is expected between late November and early December, agents expect quotes to drop and shipments to increase, since lower prices favor the competitiveness of the Brazilian product in the international market.

The availability of citrus fruits should increase in the in natura market of São Paulo State in November. Besides the harvesting of late oranges, the supply of tahiti lime should also grow until late November, after the rains in late October (despite the small amount). The warmer weather in November, however, should boost the demand for these fruits, which may underpin quotes, at least in the first fortnight of the month.

As regards orange, the supply of late oranges should increase sharply – the harvesting of valencia oranges started in August (a month before the usual period) and for natal oranges, in mid-October. The wilted-leaf variety should also be available starting November, as it reaches the ideal maturation stage to be traded in the in natura market. According to growers consulted by Cepea, quality has been higher for these varieties than for pear oranges, which should favor sales in the in natura market.

Concerning mid-season varieties, the amount of high quality fruits is becoming lower and lower, due to the dry and hot weather in September and October (when many oranges wilt and crystallize). Thus, in October, pear orange prices averaged 22.99 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 17.8 % up compared to that from September.

Citrus growers from SP have also reported losses of mature fruits, due to recent rains, which came along with strong winds in some areas. According to recent reports from citrus growers consulted by Cepea, the groves in regions near Catanduva and Jales may have been the most damaged by winds.

TAHITI LIME – The availability of tahiti lime in early November should be even lower, but it may gradually increase in irrigated groves. According to agents, rains in late October, although occasional, may have favored tahiti lime growth, which should be harvested from the second fortnight of November.

The volume, however, may be smaller than that previously estimated, since in October, high price levels for this variety led some growers to harvest the fruits at a small-size and out of the ideal maturation stage (these fruits would only be ready in November). In October, tahiti lime prices averaged 83.64 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 33.3% up compared to that in September.

Higher supply should also favor tahiti lime exports, which have been low since July, due to the price rises for the variety in the Brazilian market and the low supply of fruits in the required standard for the international market. It is worth to mention that, despite the slower pace, the performance of Brazilian tahiti lime exports has been positive this year, with record volumes registered (until September).