Citrus farmers are concerned about rising production costs. The sharpest price increase in March was observed for oil-related products, such as nitrogen fertilisers and diesel oil, due to ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran. This situation has disrupted oil production and constrained the global trade flow, leading to higher maritime freight costs.

Phosphate fertiliser prices have also risen, while potassium fertiliser quotations have seen only minimal increases.

Data from the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) show that diesel oil prices increased 15.4 % up to mid-March. Considering that, at the moment, the main mechanical activity performed by citrus growers is spraying, this rise in diesel prices could account for a 5.8 % increase in costs for the crop just from spraying alone, disregarding other activities and freight. This situation is concerning, as profit margins are expected to be tight in the next orange harvest.

Therefore, geopolitical developments in the coming weeks are concerning, as they could impact crop investments.

The 2025/26 orange season is nearing its end in the citrus belt in São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro. Players surveyed by Cepea report that the harvested volumes have already declined. As the season winds down, major processors still receiving fruits are concentrating operations in only a few processing units.

The most recent report by Fundecitrus, released in late January, indicated that only 13 % of the total volume estimated for the 2025/26 season was left to be harvested. It is likely that less than 5 % of the crop remains unharvested in late February.

The return of processing activities involving 2026/27 oranges is expected to take place between April and May.

As for prices, data from Cepea indicate that quotations of pear oranges delivered at the industry have averaged BRL 34.53 per 40.8-kilo box in February (up to Feb. 26), downing 7.69 % in relation to that in January.

Concerning in natura market, the supply of high-quality fruits has been decreasing. The demand, in turn, is still firm. In the partial of February, values of pear oranges have averaged BRL 41.40 per 40.8-kg box, on tree, for a decrease of 2.87 % against the first month of 2026.

As the 2025/26 season is close to the end, the sector is now focusing on weather conditions and its consequent impacts on the development of the 2026/27 crop.

The 2025/26 orange harvesting has been progressing well – up to mid-January, only 13 % of the crop remained to be harvested. The new estimate released in mid-February by Fundecitrus showed a slight change compared to the previous report, issued on December/25.

Fundecitrus says that the citrus belt in São Paulo and in Triângulo/Southwest of Minas Gerais is likely to produce 292.6 million 40.8 kg boxes, downing 0.7 % against the previous report, but 26.7 % above that verified in the 2024/25 crop.

The slightly smaller projection compared to the previous is linked to adjustments in the production of late fruits, such as valência and folha murcha, which are likely to amount 104.27 million boxes, 1.8 % less than that reported in December.

As the crop is nearing the end (Fundecitrus says that there are only 13 % of the crop left to be harvested), players surveyed by Cepea indicate that some units may finish processing activities this month. In addition to that, since the 2025/26 season is close to the end, players are focusing on the development of the 2026/27 crop.

Heavy rains in January affected the citrus market, especially the in natura segment. High humidity increased the incidence of fungus on trees, leading fruits to drop and affecting the quality. Part of the production that is sent to the industry ends up lost, while another share hits the market with low quality, pressing down quotations in a scenario of high supply.

In spite of the high humidity, January ended with relative stable prices of pear oranges for the industry. Players say that processing activities have been reducing gradually in some units in São Paulo, while other have directed part of their capacity to crush the tahiti lime.

The price average in January was at BRL 37.17 per 40.8-kilo box, stable in relation to December (BRL 37.05/box).

As for the tahiti lime, the high supply continues to press down values. Players surveyed by Cepea say that, due to low quotations verified in previous weeks, producers keep fruits on trees for longer, and they are likely to fall.

The price average for the tahiti lime is at BRL 22.97 per 27.2-kilo box in the last week of January, downing 9 % compared to that in the period before. Quotations for the fruit to export were at BRL 26.71 per 27.2-kilo box, for a decrease of 8 %.

2026 tends to be one of the most challenging year for the citrus sector in Brazil. Although the 2025/26 crop presents a good volume of production, close to 300 million boxes of 40.8-kg, this potential has been partially affected by the high rate of fruit droppage, due to greening and citrus canker, in addition to unfavorable weather conditions in important developmental stages.

At the same time, the demand for orange juice is low in Europe, hindering trades of the commodity in current price levels. As the pace of trades is slow, juice stocks tend to increase at processing companies, reducing the need of the industry to buy new fruit loads. Therefore, the competition between juice sellers and purchasers intensifies, while the industry is more careful about purchases.

A possible recovery of the OJ consumption tends to be gradual. Price drops to final consumers progress slowly, and the demand in the Northern Hemisphere tends to be more limited, due to the winter period. Therefore, in the summer 2026, the demand may increase again, favoring a reaction in OJ sales and in the consumption of inventories.

Concerning oranges, the 2025/26 season is likely to finish with a volume that is slightly lower than 300 million 40.8-kg boxes in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro. Still, the crop has been leading to a recovery of inventories, since it presented high-quality fruits. As for the 2026/27 season, greening and citrus canker concern producers, boosting production costs and limiting productivity gains.

As for the development of the 2026/27 crop, the heterogeneous weather among regions tends to result in distinct conditions in producing regions.

Pear orange prices to the industry started 2025 at high levels (BRL 88 per 40.8-kilo box in the first weeks of the year), influenced by the limited supply and the firm demand for fruits, which had presented good quality up until then.

However, prices dropped in the following months. Inventories of orange juice with lower quality and the low demand for new orange batches from the industry led quotations offered by citrus growers to decrease in the second quarter of the year. Moreover, in May, Fundecitrus projected a higher crop in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro, at 314.6 million 40.8-kg boxes.

The high rate of fruit droppage has been in the spotlight since the beginning of the season. Fundecitrus indicated in December that the rate had reached 23 % due to diseases such as the citrus greening and unfavorable weather conditions. Therefore, Fundecitrus reduced the production estimate for the 2025/26 season to 294.81 million boxes.

In addition to that, the sector faced months of uncertainties about the possible US tariff on orange juice imports from Brazil. However, in July, the US government decided to exempt the national product from the extra tariff of 40 %, but keeping the 10 % tax, which was in effect until November 10, 2025. Currently, only the USD 415/ton tariff is in effect.

In spite of that, the performance of exports in the beginning of the season (between July and November 2025) was still below that registered in the same period of the season before.

In this scenario of a delayed crop and of contracts established later and at smaller volumes, the pressure on values was intensified in the last quarter of the year.

Rains in the second half of November favoured most producing regions in the citrus belt (São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro), supporting development of the 2026/27 crop and improving fruit quality for the 2025/26 season.

However, in several areas, rainfall came with strong winds and hail, damaging trees, fruits and flowers. Players surveyed by Cepea say the frequency of extreme weather events this year is a concern.

Prices

Despite the good fruit quality, in natura orange prices dropped in late November, pressured by the devaluation observed in the industry. Between November 24 and 27, pear orange in the spot market averaged BRL 38.44 per 40.8-kg box, down 1.82 % compared to that in the period before. In the in natura market, pear orange quotations decreased 5.29 % this week compared to the previous, closing at BRL 53.30 per 40.8-kg box. In the accumulated of the month, prices moved down 14.7 %.

Tariffs

The export sector of citrus products gained an important tariff relief in late November. The government from the United States exempted the additional tariff of 10 % for the orange juice. As for byproducts (essential oils, therapeutic byproducts and orange pulp), the 10 % tax continues, but they were exempted from the 40 % tariff.

This is good news for the sector, since it faces a slow pace of OJ shipments, especially to Europe. The European Union has been purchasing less than the usual. Therefore, the reduction of costs to send the product to the US market may favor sales of the Brazilian product, compensating the smaller demand from Europe.

Exporters had good perspectives for the 2025/26 season of orange juice, especially due to the exemption of the US tariff on imports of the commodity from Brazil and to the increase in the orange production in São Paulo state.

However, the limited demand from Europe kept international sales of orange juice below-expected from July to October 2025. As for November, shipments may continue to register low performance, since European acquisitions are still moving at a slow pace.

As a result, players from the crushing industry in São Paulo state have been cautious about purchasing fruits, keeping only contracts closed before and buying exclusively in the spot market – purchasers have been offering lower quotations, from BRL 35 to BRL 38.00 per box, delivered at the industry in SP.

The impacts of the pressure from the industry have started to hit the market of in natura fruits. Due to low values paid by the processing industry, part of the production is expected to be allocated to the in natura market, which can increase the supply in the wholesale supply center and, consequently, press down quotations to producers.

Sales of oranges in the in natura market moved at a slow pace in late October. Many consumers were waiting to receive wages in November, leading agents to reduce trades. Therefore, prices, which were moving up in previous weeks, dropped at the end of the month.

According to data from Cepea, pear oranges quotations in the in natura market moved down 0.19 % between Oct. 27 and 30 compared to the previous, closing at BRL 61.47 per 40.8-kg box. Concerning lima oranges, prices averaged BRL 84.13 per box, 7.19 % up.

As for the tahiti lime, prices decreased due to the low demand and to a slight supply increase. The average was at BRL 40.35 per 27.2-kg box in late October, downing 32.39 % compared to the period before. Quotations of the tahiti lime to export have averaged BRL 46.15 per box, 26.56 % down.

At the industry, agents surveyed by Cepea say that orange prices were firm at the end of the month, at around BRL 50.00 per 40.8 kg box. Orange juice sales to the international market were moving at a slow pace. Thus, the sector waits for shipments results in October and November to have better indications of the demand from abroad.

The first 90 days of the 2025/26 season confirm a scenario of adjustments in the exporting market of orange juice and citrus byproducts in Brazil. In spite of the tax exemption on the Brazilian orange juice in the United States, the performance of exports from July to September 2025 was below that verified in the same period last season.

According to data from Comex Stat, the total volume of juice exported in the partial of the 2025/26 crop to all destinations totaled 199.7 thousand tons (volume equivalent to concentrate juice – 66º Brix), for a decrease of 4 % compared to the same period in the year before, while the revenue dropped 15 %, to USD 751.3 million. The income decrease is attributed to low international prices because of high global supply.

For the first time in several years, shipments to the United States and to the European Union were equal, with roughly 48 % of participation each (in volume). The 13 % increase of sales to the US highlights the dependence of the country on the Brazilian juice. Exports to the European Union, in turn, dropped 8 %, influenced by the demand decrease after high prices and quality problems verified in the crop before. The result was a balance between these two important destinations.

Besides the international scenario, the low volume of domestic inventories in this beginning of the season, along with the small supply of the fruit, also influenced the decrease of shipments.

From this month on, with the intensification of the harvesting in Brazil and the increase of processing activities at the industry, shipments are likely to move up, specially to the European Union, which may replenish inventories.

The intensification of the fruit droppage is the main factor that led Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) to decrease the estimate for the 2025/26 season. The second report, released in early September, indicated that the production may reach 306.74 million 40.8 kg boxes in the citrus belt (São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro), 2.5 % less (or -7.86 million boxes) than that indicated in May.

The current report confirms that the fruit droppage is more critical than what had been projected previously. Some areas register losses that are close to 10 %, while others face a percentage up to 45 %. On average, the fruit droppage rate is at 22 %, two percentage points more than the initial forecast.

The Huanglongbing greening (citrus greening disease) hits 47.63 % of the citrus belt. The number of contaminated plants rose 7.4 % this year, reaching roughly 100 thousand (209 thousand were evaluated).

Ending stocks

Orange juice ending stocks (by June/26) may recover in the 2025/26 season, after four consecutive crops at very low volume.

CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released a report in early September about the 2024/25 season: inventories of frozen concentrate orange juice – FCOJ (66º Brix) totaled 146.3 thousand tons, 25.3 % more than in the previous crop. Although it is still low, the volume surprised players, since the fruit supply is scarce, leading orange prices to record levels and imposing difficulties for the industry to produce juice with good ratio. Both restricted quality and high values limited sales to the international market in the last season. According to data from Secex/Comexstat, the volume exported in 2024/25 was at 776.8 thousand tons, downing 22.6 % in relation to the crop before and the smallest since 1997, when the series has started.

Cepea calculations indicate that, due to the progress of the 2025/26 season and the improvement of the juice quality (since pear oranges will join the crushing), inventories may finish the season (June/26) close or higher than 200 thousand tons. If confirmed, it will be the first time in a half decade that the sector will leave the critical volume behind (below 150 thousand tons). However, in order for inventories to reach this level, the consumption needs to return to volumes before 2024/25, the juice productivity needs to be on the average over the last five crops (278 40.8-kg boxes per juice ton) and the industry needs to process at least 260 million boxes.

The volume of oranges of the 2025/26 season sent to industrial crushing activities started to be intensified in late August. As for new contracts of fruits to the industry, the pace has increased, but it still limited, since both purchasers and sellers are expecting a better definition of market conditions.

It is worth noting that the production of the 2025/26 crop is late, due to the second blossoming. Thus, the availability of fruits may be higher in September/October. Moreover, prices paid in 2024 were high, leading many producers to make cash flow and, now, they can wait for better trading opportunities.

As for the industry, inventories built at the beginning of the season have still not reached a satisfactory standard, due to high limonin and low ratio of some batches. These characteristics have limited the attractiveness of the Brazilian orange juice for purchasers from abroad, who still look for high-quality product. As a result, the industry has boosted the demand for high-quality fruits.

In natura market

The warm weather in the Southeastern region in Brazil boosted the demand in the in natura market. Expectations are that, due to the proximity of the end of the winter in Brazil and higher temperatures, the demand may remain firm.

July ended with good news for the Brazilian citrus sector. The government from the United States decided to exclude the national orange juice from the tariff hike, bringing a relief for the sector. The US market is dependent on the OJ from Brazil, which is responsible for circa 60 % of the total volume consumed in the United States.

The steep decrease in the US juice output over the last years, especially in Florida, reinforced the vulnerability of the US production chain. In this context, the 50 % tariff could lead to product scarcity, inflationary shocks and logistics disruptions, which led to the exclusion of the OJ from the list of products affected by the new tariff.

For Brazil, the exclusion represents the preservation of the competitiveness in its most important market and avoids income loss.

In general, this scenario may lead players to close new contracts involving 2025/26 oranges again, bringing liquidity to the market.

The 2024/25 crop in Brazil finished officially in June 2025 with an aspect that is in the spotlight: the volume equivalent to concentrate juice (66º Brix) exported is the smallest of Secex series, but the revenue obtained with sales hit a record.

This scenario is related to the limited production of oranges in Brazil in the 2024/25 season, especially of high-quality fruits. Therefore, the industry had difficulties to produce juice that is compatible to the standards required by international consumers. The low supply of orange juice in the international market, in turn, boosted prices.

In the accumulated of the 2024/25 season (from July/24 to June/25), Brazil exported 776.78 thousand tons of juice, 22.7 % less than in the season before and the lowest since 1997, when the Secex series started.

Although the volume shipped had reduced sharply, high prices increased the income significantly. Comparing 2023/24 and 2024/25 crops, the income rose 28.4 %, totaling USD 3.48 billion, a record. If, on one hand, high values boosted the profitability, on the other, they limited the consumption, especially due to the low quality of the product.

2025/26 season

The expectation for the 2025/26 season is for shipments to regain pace, as inventories of high-quality juice increase and part of the demand from abroad is firm again, following the progress of the national production in the second semester of 2025.

Trump‘s tariffs

The 2024/25 finished with concerning limited exports, in a scenario of uncertainties about a full recovery of the international juice consumption. Some agents fear that the demand from abroad may not be firm again, due to the stagnation of the consumption and/or the still undefined effects of the tariff increase implemented by the Trump government on products from Brazil.

Due to the cold wave in the South, Southeast and in some areas of the Central-West in Brazil in late June, some citrus producing regions in São Paulo, Paraná and in the south of Minas Gerais registered frosts on June 26. In spite of that, only some areas were affected and producers are still evaluating if there are impacts.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that major concerns are about the tahiti lime, since low temperatures may affect the fruit color in this period of limited supply. As for ponkan tangerine, frosts in this period can accelerate fruit droppage. Moreover, the cold weather may also affect the colour of the fruit.

Prices

The proximity of the new crop continues to press down orange quotations in the natura market – the supply of early fruits is higher. Prices of pear oranges in the in natura market were at BRL 60.48 per 40.8 kg box, on tree, between June 23 and 27, downing 4.1 % compared to that in the previous period.

As for tahiti lime, the price average from June 23-27 is BRL 40.16 per 27.2 kg box, moving down 1.9 % in the same comparison.

Florida

The report released in June by the USDA indicates that the 2024/25 orange crop in Florida is likely to total 12 million 40.8 kg boxes, upping 370 thousand boxes in relation to that released in the May report, but still 33.5 % smaller compared to the season before (2023/24).

Exports

Brazilian shipments of orange juice in the partial of the current season (2024/25 – from July/24 to May/25) continue below the volume registered in the same period of previous crops.

So far, Brazil shipped 730.948 thousand tons of OJ (equivalent to concentrate juice – 66º Brix), which is 22.4 % smaller than that in the same period of the season before (from July/23 to May/24) – data from Comexstat. It is worth noting that, in the first 11 months of previous crops, the volume was close to 1 million tons. The combination of lower quality and high prices have been limiting exports.

The revenue, in turn, continues to grow, boosted by high prices paid for the commodity, especially at the beginning of the season. In the partial of the 2024/25 crop, the revenue has totaled USD 3.285 billion, 33.1 % up in relation to that verified in the same period of the 2023/24 season.

After Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released the estimate in May – of a higher orange output than what was expected by agents, at 314.6 million 40.8-kg boxes, – the sector was waiting for a better definition of contracts between the industry and producers to deliver 2025/26 fruits. However, contracts are likely to be closed only from mid-June on.

As the production may be concentrated in the second blossoming, the harvesting can be intensified only after July. Therefore, for now, the small volume of fruits that the industry has been receiving and/or may receive in the coming weeks refers to previous contracts or to fruits traded in the spot market. In this scenario, prices of the orange delivered at the industry registered slight changes in May.

Concerning fruits that have been delivered to the industry, players say that they have shown better quality – which means that a smaller volume of oranges has been necessary to produce juice. This positive scenario, in general, is related to weather conditions, which favored the production.

The new crop estimate released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in May indicates that the orange production in the citrus belt in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro and in the southwest of Minas Gerais is likely to total 314.6 million 40.8-kg boxes in 2025/26, a sharp rise of 36.2 % compared to the crop before. This increase brings a relief for the sector, especially because of the current scenario of limited orange juice stocks. By July/25, the volume in stock would be below the level that is considered strategic.

In case processing activities follow the harvesting increase at the same proportion, inventories by July 2026 are likely to be close to a safer volume to supply the global market. As a result, prices paid to producers, which hit records in the crop before (especially in October 2024), may not remain at the same levels. Thus, quotations are likely to continue above the historical average.

Among the aspects that justify the increase of the production estimate are the higher number of producing trees and the improvement of the weather during the cycle. Fundecitrus says that the number of producing trees upped 7.5 % compared to the previous season, changing from 169.9 million to 182.7 million trees.

Orange prices continue moving down in the domestic market in April (in natura), pressed by the higher supply of early fruits (such as hamlin and westing) and of ponkan tangerine. Moreover, the downward trend is also influenced by decreases at the industry. As for the demand, the mild weather has been limiting the consumption, reinforcing price drops.

From April 28 to May 2, values for pear oranges downed 4.58 %, averaging BRL 93.82 per 40-kg box. In April, pear orange averaged BRL 92.46 per 40-kg box, for a decrease of 1.75 % compared to March.

Industry

Citrus growers and processing companies are waiting for data from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) to define values and possible contracts for the 2025/26 crop – the new data will be released next Friday, 9.

In April, the price average of the fruit delivered at the industry was at BRL 51.81 per 40.8-kg box, downing 18 % compared to that verified in the previous month. This week (from April 28 to May 2), the value is at BRL 47.30 per 40.8-kg box, for a decrease of 5.95 % in relation to the week before.

As processing companies reduced the pace of activities of oranges in early April, part of units was then focused on crushing the tahiti lime. According to players surveyed by Cepea, this scenario helps to flow non-standard fruits to processing activities, reducing the volume in the in natura market.

Due to the higher demand from the industry, quotations were firm. In the first three months of 2025, prices paid by the industry for the tahiti lime averaged BRL 25.06 per 40.8-kg box, 55 % above that in the same period last year and the highest considering the first quarter since 2019 (BRL 29.95/box), in real terms (IGP-DI March/25).

From April 7-10, the price average of the fruit delivered at the industry was at BRL 26.00 per box, upping 13.04 % compared to that verified in the last week of March. This scenario ends up keeping the price level close to BRL 30/box in the in natura market. Tahiti lime prices are at BRL 29.22 per 27.2-kg box between April 7 and 10, downing 2.2 % compared to the week before.

Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released its report of the 2024/25 season on April 10, indicating that the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) harvested 230.87 million 40.8-kg boxes, for a decrease of 0.65 % (or 1.51 million boxes) in relation to the first estimate (May/24), but upping 1.03 % (or 2.35 million boxes) compared to that projected in February/25. In relation to the previous crop, the decrease is by 24.85 %.

The upward trend for tahiti lime values, which has been verified since carnaval in Brazil, was interrupted in late March. The price average for the tahiti lime in the last week of March was at BRL 29.60 per 27.2-kg box, for a decrease of 6.15 % compared to that in the week before.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that the decrease is related to the supply of small-sized fruits, which has been higher than expected for the in natura market. This scenario pushes away consumers at supermarkets.

High-quality fruits, in turn, have been mainly allocated to exports. The price average of shipped fruits is at BRL 40.00 per 27.2-kg box in late March, a level that has been observed since the beginning of the month and it is higher than in January (BRL 30.00/box) and in February (BRL 35.00/box).

Data from Comexstat indicate that, in 2024, the income obtained with exports of lemons totaled USD 196.15 million – that verified for mango (USD 350.3 million) continues the highest income among fruits that Brazil exports. It is worth noting that the income registered with exports of lemons in the partial of this year is already higher than that observed in January and February 2024.

Orange market

Due to the fact that early fruits were hitting the market in late March (such as westing, rubi and hamlin), values of in natura oranges dropped in São Paulo state. The price average for pear oranges in the last week of March was at BRL 98.51 per 40.8-kg box, downing 3.15% compared to that in the period before.

The low quality of orange juice and the limited demand due to high price levels have resulted in sharp price drops in the international market in this early 2025. The May/25 contract at ICE Futures dropped 20.6 % in the partial of March and 42.8 % in the accumulated of 2025, at 276.45 cents of dollar per pound on March 12.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that, in early March, the orange sugar/acid ratio was below the desirable for crushing activities. Moreover, the excess of limonin, due to a heterogeneous harvesting, has also been affecting the final product, since it increases the juice bitterness, reducing the acceptance of major consumers, such as the United States and the European Union.

Lower prices at ICE Futures contrast with the current scenario of orange juice stocks. CitrusBR released a report on March 10 indicating that inventories finished 2024 at 351,483 tons (converted to FCOJ), downing 24.2 % compared to 2023 and the lowest amount since the beginning of the series.

As for the domestic market, the low quality at this end-of-season period pressed down values paid by the industry.

Weather

The warm weather and the low volume of rainfall in São Paulo state since mid-February concerned citrus growers in early March. Many of them fear that the weather may affect both orange and tahiti lime in this end of the 2024/25 season and the citrus production in the next crop (2025/26).

The increase of the orange size, especially fruits from the fourth blossoming, and the decrease of the fruit drop rate boosted the new estimate for the 2024/25 output compared to the previous projection.

Data released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in February indicate that the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) may harvest 228.52 million 40.8-kg boxes, moving down 1.7 % (or 3.86 million boxes) compared to the first estimate, released in May/24, but upping 2.4 % (or 5.38 million boxes) in relation to the report from December/24.

Besides the good development of the fourth blossoming, Fundecitrus indicates that the rainfall has favored the production.

The higher supply against the previous crop brings a certain relief, but the sector still faces the low quality of the fruits and the low industrial productivity.

This scenario of higher supply and lower quality has been pressing quotations down. For the industry, which has been purchasing fruits at BRL 82.88/box, on average, in the second week of February, the decrease is by 3.63 % against the week before.

Florida

The orange production in Florida has also been facing challenges. The USDA indicated this month that the production in the state is likely to reach 11.5 million boxes, downing 500 thousand boxes compared to the estimate from January and a decrease of 36 % against the crop before.

The result of orange juice shipments from Brazil in the 2024/25 season already reflects the lower supply of oranges and the limited stocks of the national OJ. According to data from Comex Stat, from July to December last year, Brazil exported 448.5 thousand tons of orange juice (converted into FCOJ 66 Brix), for a decrease of 23 % compared to that observed in the same period last year and the lowest amount of the Comex Stat series, which has started in 1997. The revenue obtained with sales, in turn, rose 37 % in the same comparison, hitting the record of USD 1.96 billion.

Calculations performed to obtain the total volume exported consider the sum of the three codes available in the Comex Stat system. Specifically about the code “20091200”, which includes non-concentrate types of juice, numbers were converted into FCOJ 66 Brix. Moreover, differently from the methodology used by CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters), all ports in Brazil were taken into account, not only Santos port.

Citrus BR indicates that the volume shipped in the first six months of 2025 (the last ones of the 2024/25 season) may register a lower performance compared to the year before due to the offseason in São Paulo, which limits the availability of juice. Moreover, the international demand is low because of high OJ prices in the international market.

As for destinations of total Brazilian exports, the European Union continues as the most important, participating with 55 % of the revenue obtained with sales in the second semester of 2024. The second major destination is the United States (35 %) – data from Comex Stat.

Between July and December 2024, NFC (not from concentrate) shipments to the US accounted for 62 % of the total, against 53 % in the same period of the year before. As for the European Union, FCOJ exports accounted for circa 70 %, and NFC shipments, 30 %.

Brazil

The fourth blossoming in the citrus belt in São Paulo slightly increased the supply in late January, despite the below-expected quality of the fruits. Low stocks of orange juice have been leading some companies to purchase as many fruits as they can in the spot market in an attempt to reduce the juice deficit. Fundecitrus indicates that the good development of this last blossoming of the 2024/25 season may bring a slightly higher supply for the citrus belt.

Even with the return of rainfall in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro from October/24 on, the scenario for the 2025/26 season continues uncertain. Flowers that opened after the rains were considered satisfactory, however, the development of the crop still depends on weather conditions during the season.

The 2024/25 crop is estimated at 223.14 million 40.8-kilo boxes of oranges, for a decrease of 27.4 % compared to the previous season (2023/24) – data from Fundecitrus.

Weather adversities have been hampering the production for five consecutive seasons, which resulted in restricted inventories of juice.

Cepea calculations indicate that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the 2024/25 crop, ending this season technically zero. Thus, a very positive 2025/26 season will be necessary to have at least a slight recovery.

Not even a decrease of exports in the 2024/25 season will be enough to compensate for the reduction in the volume of fruit processed, which will maintain the demand from the industry at high levels.

Moreover, Florida has been registering a decrease in inventories and may need to import more inputs from Brazil, which helps to sustain quotations in the domestic market. Besides this scenario of limited production and stocks in Brazil, data released on December 10 by the USDA indicate that the 2024/25 orange crop may total 12 million 40.8-kg boxes, downing 20 % (or 3 million boxes) compared to the report released in October (15 million boxes). Besides the citrus greening disease, the production drop is also related to the hurricane Milton in Florida in early October 2024.

For 2025, the conditions reported in the Brazilian citrus grove may support prices throughout the year.

Orange prices hit records in 2024. Values of the 40.8 kg box were above BRL 100 in the in natura market. Increases are explained by the firm demand from part of the industry (since players have low orange juice stocks) and the restricted orange supply, because of the limited production.

The weather in the citrus belt was predominantly dry and with high temperatures during the development of the crop. Although prices allowed good profits to citrus growers, the low productivity boosted costs (which had already been high due to the citrus greening disease). Margins may be reduced in areas where the production dropped significantly, despite record prices of the fruit. As for the tahiti lime, quotations were at low levels in the first semester and increased in the second part of the year, because of the offseason period, which is a typical movement.

As a result, due to the limited orange supply and the high demand from the industry, values operated at record levels, in real terms (prices were deflated by the IGP-DI). In October, the price average paid by the industry surpassed BRL 90 per 40.8 kg box. It is worth noting that 2023/24 trades started early, in January, with quotations at around BRL 38 per box. Since inventories at the industry had been limited, the demand in the spot market increased, and prices hit records in real terms, surpassing BRL 100/box in November.

São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro are likely to harvest 223.14 million 40.8 kilo boxes of oranges in the 2024/25 season, for an increase of 7.36 million boxes (or + 3.4 %) compared to the last projection, released in September, but still 9.24 million boxes less (or – 4 %) in relation to the first estimate (May 2024). Therefore, the current season may be 27.4 % smaller than the previous (2023/24), when 307.22 million boxes were harvested – data from Fundecitrus.

The smaller production was already expected in 2024/25, due to unfavourable weather conditions and to the citrus greening disease.

The current scenario is: very limited orange juice stocks in Brazil. Thus, in order to guarantee the global OJ supply, the next production (2025/26) would need to increase in both Brazil and Florida.

As for the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union, it can favour shipments of lime, lemon and orange juice, but can also open a direct channel to receive these fruits from Spain. Still, the agreement is very important and brings good perspectives for the mid and long-terms.

The possibility of a small orange supply was reinforced due to the decrease of the number of companies operating in São Paulo state in late November. In the last two crops, when the supply was already below the normal standard, major processing companies started to reduce the pace of activities only between January and February.

In January 2024, only six plants were operating, against tem in the same period last year. At the end of November, there were seven units in activity. Players surveyed by Cepea say that there might still be a certain volume of raw material for the industry to continue processing up to February 2025, but March is still uncertain.

To make matters worse, the low supply is being verified together with low quality. According to players surveyed by Cepea, the brix-acid ratio is unsatisfactory, concerning both producers and players from the industry, since it affects the efficiency of processing activities and the quality of the final product.

The lower juice yield is especially linked to the scarcity of rains during the development of the fruits, which reduced the amount of juice in the fruit. As a result, more oranges are necessary to produce the same amount of juice.

Although it is the offseason period for the tahiti lime, quotations decreased in early November. The downward trend is related to both the size and the quality of the fruit, which are below expected by the sector. However, it is worth noting that price levels are still high.

According to data from Cepea, tahiti lime prices averaged BRL 95.59 per 27.2-kg box in mid-November, downing 16.17 % against late October.

It is worth noting that the price average for the tahiti lime was at BRL 117.94/box last month, 72.2 % more than in September and moving up 71 % against October last year, in nominal terms.

Season in Florida

The 2023/24 orange season finished in September in Florida. The Citrus Department of that state in the Unites States indicated in October that local juice stocks, as observed in Brazil, finished the season at low levels.

The limited orange supply has been frequent in the US, considering that the country has become majorly an orange juice importer since the advance of greening in Florida.

It is worth noting that Brazil is the major orange juice supplier for the US market. The fact that the Brazilian industry faced both low supply and high prices in the 2023/24 season (which limited exports) might have prevented a recovery of stocks in Florida.

Regular rains and mild weather were registered in late October in the citrus belt of São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro, the biggest orange producer for the juice industry. This scenario has helped to bring a relief for trees that were affected by the lack of rains and high temperatures.

2024/25 season

Even with the return of rainfall, the current orange crop has presented low quality. Still, rains in October may improve the quality of fruits that are still on the trees. It is worth noting that the orange crop has started in June this year and may finish between December and January/25. As for tahiti lime (the main season starts between November and December), weather conditions may favor the development, since fruits are currently below the standard.

Exports

The revenue obtained by Brazilian exporters with orange juice shipments in the partial of the 2024/25 crop (from July/24 to September/24) totaled USD 905.3 million, for an increase of 42.3 % compared to the same period of the last season (USD 636.1 million), according to Comex Stat.

The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil, in turn, continues decreasing, as it has been verified since the 2023/24 crop. From July to September/24, Brazil shipped 207.5 thousand tons of orange juice, downing 27 % in relation to the same period in 2023.

The lower volume exported is linked to the limited supply. Weather adversities have been hampering the production for five consecutive seasons, which resulted in restricted inventories of juice.

High temperatures in São Paulo state in early October reinforced producers’ concerns, since this scenario can affect both fruits that are on the trees (from the current season, 2023/24) and the production of the next crop (2024/25), especially non-irrigated areas. Therefore, in mid-October, citrus growers were waiting for the rainfall in major producing regions.

So far, the biggest challenge for the current season (2023/24) has been the fact that fruits have wilted, which affects directly the quality, according to players surveyed by Cepea. In normal conditions, this quality loss would press quotations down; however, due to the limited supply this season, prices remain firm.

As for the 2024/25 crop, scenarios are distinct between irrigated and non-irrigated areas. In irrigated regions in São Paulo state, the fruit development is more advanced, but producers were still concerned with high temperatures.

On the other hand, most trees in non-irrigated areas have not blossomed yet. Thus, the return of rains is essential to mitigate the lack of soil humidity and encourage the blossoming.

The 2024/25 orange crushing was moving at a good pace at juice processing companies in São Paulo state at the end of September. According to players, the pear orange has been the most processed variety; however, the harvesting pace has been progressing, and the participation of late fruits (such as valencia and natal) has been increasing.

The harvesting is more advanced due to the higher share of fruits from the first blossoming. Data from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) indicate that 64 % of oranges produced in this season account for the first blossoming, higher than the last four crops (36 % of the fruits, at most). Thus, the crushing pace is likely to reduce earlier this year – the second blossoming considers fruits that will be harvested from October on, according to Fundecitrus.

In addition to that, greening (HLB – Huanglongbing), above-average temperatures and the dry weather also accelerate the harvesting. As for greening, one of the symptoms of the disease is the early fruit drop, and producers may harvest in advance to avoid losses. Weather conditions, in turn, accelerate the ripening and may result in early fruit drop.

The share of late fruits in processing activities is likely to be higher in October, but the amount of pear oranges allocated to juice production can still be relevant.

Stocks

Cepea calculations, based on data released by CitrusBR on Sept. 19, indicate that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the current crop (2024/25), ending this season technically zero. Not even the forecast of improvement in industrial yield (due to below-average rainfall) and limited exports will be enough to compensate for the decrease in the volume of fruit processed.

According to CitrusBR, the stocked quantity of the commodity was 116.7 thousand tons at the end of 2023/24 crop (on June 30, 2024), being 37.7 % higher than that on the same period last year, but the third lowest in history (the series has started in 1988/89).

Most part of São Paulo state registered high temperatures in early September. This scenario brought concerns for citrus growers, who may face another year of significant heat waves.

Climatempo says that heat waves in September have become more common in most part of Brazil; however, they have been more intense and are lasting longer.

2024/25 CROP – São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro may harvest 215.78 million 40.8-kg boxes in the 2024/25 orange season, according to data released by Fundecitrus on September 10. The volume may be 30 % less than in the crop before, which registered average production, and below the first projection, of 232.38 million boxes.

The decrease is related to the smaller fruit size, due to the dry and warm weather. The weather also accelerated the harvesting pace, since it influenced the ripening. More than half of the crop can be harvested in this dry weather scenario because rains are forecast only for late September.

The volume of rainfall was small in almost all areas in the citrus belt, except in the southwestern region of São Paulo. Fundecitrus indicates that the only area where the production is expected to increase in this season is the southwest of SP – the harvest may be 19 % higher than in 2023/24. In other regions, the production decrease can be between 28 % and 60 %.

Recent wildfires in several areas in São Paulo state concerned players. According to data gathered by Cepea, wildfires hit some citrus areas, especially the central-north of the state; however, this scenario may not bring significant impacts on the volume of fruits available in the market.

According to players surveyed by Cepea, the areas hit by wildfires are small and the landowners were able to control them rapidly. The rainfall in some areas also helped to control the problem. Damages were more significant for other crops, especially sugarcane.

Market

Prices for the pear orange have been at historical levels this year both in the in natura market and in the industrial segment. The limited supply of the current season and the firm demand from the industry explain this scenario. The price average was at BRL 100.00 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, at the end of August.

However, the cold wave in São Paulo state in late August led consumers to be away from trades in the orange market. This scenario was reinforced by the end-of-the month period. On the other hand, the limited supply and high prices of industrial contracts continued to sustain quotations in the in natura market.

The 2024/25 crop-year for orange juice exports (from July/24 to June/25) has started in July and shipments, which had been moving down in 2023/24, continued to move at a slow pace. This scenario was already expected, since the supply is limited in Brazil, due to the confirmation of a smaller orange production in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro. At the same time, Brazilian imports of in natura orange and tangerine rose in July.

Orange juice exports

According to Comex Stat, Brazil shipped 53.4 thousand tons of orange juice in July, downing 38 % compared to the same month in 2023. The limited supply boosted quotations. As a result, the revenue totaled USD 198.9 million in July/24, for an increase of 9 % in relation to July/23.

NFC orange juice shipments amounted 164.2 thousand tons in July/24, and the revenue totaled USD 96.45 million, upping 3 % and 55 % against July/23. As for FCOJ exports, the total was 23.6 thousand tons (-59 %), and the revenue was USD 102.4 million (-15 % in one year).

In natura citrus fruits imports

In natura orange imports are at record volumes this year, boosted by the low domestic supply and high prices of national fruits. According to data from Comex Stat, from January to July, 34.8 thousand tons were imported, 87 % up in relation to the same period last year. Expenses amounted USD 24.7 million, 72 % more this year against the previous.

As for tangerines, the volume purchased by Brazil in the partial of 2024 totaled 14.5 thousand tons, 96 % more than in the period from January to July last year. Expenses are at USD 15.65 million (+89 %).

Domestic market

Quotations of citrus fruits surveyed by Cepea may continue to increase in August, sustained by expectations of a limited supply for all varieties. This scenario can be verified despite the orange season peak.

The orange harvesting is moving at a good pace in the citrus belt, but most part of the produce has been allocated to the juice industry. Factories continue with high prices to purchase the raw material, leading many producers that typically operate in the in natura market to allocate oranges for processing activities. Therefore, not even the low demand, due to mild temperatures, was able to press down quotations.

After weeks of dry weather, rains were registered in many citrus areas in São Paulo state in mid-July. Although the volume of rainfall was not homogeneous among regions (rains were registered especially in the south and in the southwest of São Paulo state), it brought a certain relief for citrus growers, who were concerned with the dry weather that had already been affecting the trees.

The rainfall was more significant in the southwest of SP state; thus, flowers may start blossoming. In areas where rains were less abundant (or they were not registered), more humidity is necessary for the flowers to blossom.

As for the tahiti lime, the recent rainfall is not likely to increase the supply in this moment, but it may favor the harvest and the quality in the coming weeks.

Juice exports decrease in the 2023/24 season

Brazilian shipments of orange juice dropped in the 2023/24 season (from July 2023 to June 2024), after increasing in the previous crop. Brazil exported 1 million tons, downing 8.1 % compared to the season before (data from Comex Stat). The revenue totaled USD 2.7 billion, for an increase of 25 % in the same comparison. The export decrease is mainly related to the low volume of juice in stocks in Brazil.

Processing activities

The orange processing continues to move at a fast pace in São Paulo state. Some players from the industry surveyed by Cepea say that the crushing is more advanced this season, and that the processing activities of early varieties are likely to reduce this month. Last year, the processing finished only in the second fortnight of September; however, in 2024/25, activities are expected to end in July or in August.

Due to the presence of greening (Huanglongbing) in São Paulo and to the recent imbalance between supply and demand for oranges, both producers and processors have been looking for options to increase the planted area in regions outside the citrus belt, without the phytosanitary risks in SP. There have been reports of new plantings in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais (out of Triângulo Mineiro) and Goiás, areas that are not typical citrus producers.

Investments are indeed not recommended depending on the region of São Paulo state, although major processing units are located there. Many areas have high incidence of greening, which hinders new plantings. According to data from Fundecitrus, 38 % of the trees in the citrus belt had symptoms of the disease in 2023, the sixth year in a row of greening increase. It is worth noting that new plants tend to be more vulnerable to the disease, increasing costs with prevention and chances of infection.

Therefore, plantings outside SP are an option. The land availability is higher, reducing costs, and there is the absence of greening and other diseases. Moreover, the industrial productivity can be higher than in SP, due to the warmer weather, which is positive for processing companies.

On the other hand, the fact that the areas are unknown for the citrus activity concerns players, since this scenario would demand adjustments in management and irrigation, which cannot be necessarily the same as those verified in SP.

Although these regions are warmer than SP (which can favor the productivity), it tends to affect the development of the trees. Additionally, costs with freight can be higher because of logistical issues.

It is worth noting that these investments in other regions are new and, therefore, they may not affect the orange supply in the short-term – it can be verified in roughly three years, when plants start producing.

Market

The supply of citrus fruits in the in natura market in São Paulo may be low in July. As for oranges, the lower availability has been verified since the middle of last year and it is also attributed to the high demand from the industry – it is worth noting that juice stocks at processing companies may finish the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) at low levels.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that even producers who typically sell to the in natura market are focusing on sending the product to the industry this season, since prices are more attractive and there are some advantages compared to the in natura market.

The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil in the partial of the 2023/24 season (from July/23 to May/24) remains below that registered in the same period of the previous crop. According to data from Comex Stat, Brazil exported 914.9 thousand tons of orange juice, for a decrease of 8.9 % compared to the same period last season.

The revenue, in turn, totaled USD 2.47 billion, moving up 22 % this season in relation to the previous. The main reason for the increase in revenue was the higher price paid per ton of juice, which rose due to the low availability of the commodity in Brazil, according to agents consulted by Cepea.

OJ shipments to the European Union amounted 489.79 thousand tons from July/23 to May/24, downing 8.2 % against the same period of 2022/23. The income, in turn, rose 27 %, at USD 1.35 billion. To the US, exports dropped 11 % in relation to that in 2022/23, at 293.64 thousand tons. The income verified between July/23 and May/24 was USD 737 million, 9 % up against the same period last season.

Domestic market

Prices of oranges allocated to processing activities have been moving up since March, when contracts involving the 2024/25 season have started to be closed. In early June, values of the fruit traded in the spot market in São Paulo state hit BRL 85.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered, a new record of Cepea series, which started in 1994, in real terms (averages were deflated by the IGP-DI).

Price rises are related to both the higher demand and the limited supply. As for the demand, the industry needs to purchase the raw material, because orange juice stocks are very low. Concerning the supply, the fruit output may be small again in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro.

The orange processing of the 2024/25 season may be intensified in May. Three of the major processors and other two small companies (tool) have been operating at the moment. At least three more units are expected to start activities still in early May.

In the same period of 2023, only three units were operating, and a fourth company started crushing in the second week of the month. This scenario indicates a higher intensity of processing activities this year. Although current volumes are not high yet, players from the industry say that some companies have started operating in order to avoid fruit losses in a year of low supply.

Prices at companies remain firm, reaching BRL 70.00 per box for fruits of the new season. In cases of higher volumes, values can be even higher.

Due to the increase of industrial activities, the downward trend of orange prices in the in natura market, verified in April, is likely to slow down, since producers will have the industry as an option to sell the product. In April, the average for the in natura pear orange, of BRL 91.28 per 40.8-kilo box, in tree, was 3 % lower than in March.

The demand for oranges, in turn, is expected to decrease in May, because of the supply of ponkan tangerine. Moreover, possible milder temperatures in the Brazilian autumn tend to reduce the consumption.

Tahiti lime

The rainfall favoured the development of the tahiti lime in São Paulo state, increasing the supply.

The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil in the partial of the 2023/24 season (from July/23 to March/24) was below that registered in the same period of the previous crop. According to players from the industry, the low availability of the commodity in the Brazilian market may be limiting shipments. As for prices of the juice sold to the international market, they moved up.

The 2023/24 season in Brazil is expected to finish (in June/24) with reduced orange juice stocks at the industry. As a result, some players are unwilling to export large amounts in order to avoid having zero stocks by the end of 2023/24.

According to data from Comex Stat, Brazil exported 812.2 thousand tons of orange juice in the partial of 2023/24, for a decrease of 7.7 % compared to the same period last season. The revenue totaled USD 2.08 billion, moving up 23 % this season in relation to the previous and close to the total registered in the crop before (USD 2.14 billion up to June/23).

OJ shipments to the European Union amounted 419.9 thousand tons from July/23 to March/24, downing 7.7 % against the same period of 2022/23. The income, in turn, rose 26 %, at USD 1.1 billion. To the US, exports dropped 4.4 % in relation to that in 2022/23, at 265.7 thousand tons. The income verified between July/23 and March/24 was USD 667.1 million, 18 % up against the same period last season.

Market in Brazil

The market of the tahiti lime in São Paulo closed March with firm prices. Players surveyed by Cepea say that this is related to the low supply, since rains affected the harvest. As a result, the monthly price average was BRL 31.17 per 27-kilo box, harvested, 55 % up in relation to February.

As for the orange, prices also closed March at higher levels. The supply was low (due to the offseason period and to the good demand from the industry) and the demand in the in natura market was firm, because of high temperatures. Therefore, the price average was BRL 93.56 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, upping 7 % in relation to February.

Harvesting activities for ponkan tangerine have started in March in São Paulo state, but the volumes available are still limited. According to players surveyed by Cepea, the supply is expected to increase significantly from April onwards, when more fruits hit the ideal ripening stage.

First tangerines harvested come from irrigated orange groves, where the development is more advanced, such as in the north of São Paulo state and Minas Gerais.

The season is expected to continue up to mid-August, and the volume harvested may be similar to that registered in the last crop, according to agents surveyed by Cepea. As for the quality, it has been considered satisfactory, in spite of some cases of Alternaria citri, which have been controlled successfully.

The current low supply of ponkan tangerine has been keeping quotations attractive to producers. From March 25-28, the price average was at BRL 95.53 per 27-kilo box, on tree, 36.4 % up compared to the same period in 2023, in nominal terms.

The holidays of Good Friday and Easter, the end-of-the-month period and lower temperatures in late March have limited the demand for oranges. However, prices continue to move up due to the restricted supply. As for the tahiti lime, despite the low consumption, rains and the slow pace of the harvest limited the supply, boosting quotations.

Brazilian orange juice processors finished 2023 with low stocks. A report released by CitrusBR in March indicates that the volume was 463.94 thousand tons (equivalent to concentrate juice) on December 31, 2023, being 6.7 % higher than that on the same day last year, but the second lowest in history (the series has started in 2011).

Considering that the industry is practically in the offseason period, and, therefore, they have been using stocks to supply the international market, the stocked volume is likely to decrease month after month. This scenario brings concerns about the global supply, since Brazil is the biggest world exporter, and, although there are no forecasts for the next crop (2024/25) yet, the orange production may not increase compared to the current season.

CitrusBR has not projected the ending stocks for the orange juice industry this season. However, data from Cepea indicate that stocks may finish the season higher than in the previous, especially because of the decrease in exports.

Taking 2023/24 initial stocks, of 84.75 thousand tons (CitrusBR), processing of 267 million boxes (discounting the 40 million boxes of the in natura market of the total volume projected by Fundecitrus), the same juice yield of the previous crop and the 6 % decrease of exports (from July/23 to February/24), the amount in stocks by the end of the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) would be only 94.5 thousand tons, 11 % more than in the same period last year.

In spite of the projection of an increase compared to the last season, it is worth noting that 2022/23 ending stocks were the lowest in recent history.

Production

The rainfall in orange producing areas in São Paulo state has been favoring the 2024/25 season. Players surveyed by Cepea say that the good humidity has been positive for the fruits, allowing to anticipate the harvest of early varieties, which have started to be offered in the in natura market in February and may be intensified in March.

Pear orange prices in the in natura market hit a new record in February, considering Cepea historical series, which has started in October 1994 – values were deflated by IGP-DI December/23. Quotations are likely to continue at high levels in March, since the volume of early varieties in the spot market in São Paulo is still small.

In February, pear orange prices averaged BRL 87.40 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 9.29 % up compared to January/24 and an increase of 83 % in relation to February/23 (in this case, in nominal terms). Price rises are linked to the lower supply in this offseason period, while the supply of late and early varieties is also limited. It is worth noting that the firm industrial demand reduced even more the fruit availability in the domestic market during the entire season.

TAHITI LIME – Prices have started February in a downward trend; however, they rose during the month, leading to an increase of the monthly average. Although it is the peak season, frequent rains limited the harvest and, consequently, the supply. Moreover, weather conditions have been favoring the fruit quality.

In this scenario, the tahiti lime price average in the in natura market was BRL 20.11 per 27-kg box (harvested) in February, moving up 46.36 % and 104 % in relation to January/24 and February/23, respectively, in nominal terms.

Values are likely to remain firm in March because of the lower volume that will be harvested. Moreover, exports may increase, especially due to the proximity of Easter, which can influence to flow the product.

Pear orange prices have been moving up since the beginning of the 2023/24 season in the in natura market. In January, values hit the record of Cepea series, which has started in 1994. In the first month of 2024, the price average was BRL 78.89 per 40.8-kilo box, moving up 16% compared to December/23 and 90% in relation to January/23, in real terms (values were deflated by IGP-DI Dec/23). Up until January/24, the highest value in real terms had been BRL 74.92/box, in November 1994.

This scenario of high prices is related to the limited supply. The production in the current crop is on average; however, low orange juice stocks increase the need to buy the raw material, reducing the orange supply in the in natura market.

As for the demand, players surveyed by Cepea say that it is firm, since temperatures are high, favoring the consumption of the fruit.

The pear orange supply is expected to continue limited in February, which is still considered offseason.

Industry

Prices for pear orange and late varieties for the industry had hit a real record in November. Since then, they have been renewing the record level of Cepea series, which has started in 1994. However, values are now moving down, considering the closing of new trades.

The price average for pear orange and late varieties for the industry was BRL 57.68 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered, in January, increasing 10% against the month before and 76% in relation to January 2023, in real terms.

Tahiti lime

Prices finished January at low levels, due to the peak season. The price average in January 2024 was BRL 13.56 per 27-kg box (harvested), for a decrease of 28% compared to the last month of 2023.

The tahiti lime supply is expected to continue high in February, due to rains in January, which can favor both the fruit development and the quality.

In 2024, orange prices paid to citrus growers in São Paulo/Triângulo Mineiro may remain at high levels. The supply may continue to be lower than the industrial demand, keeping the availability limited in the in natura market.

So far, there are no solid aspects that allow to project the volume that will be harvested in the 2024/25 season; however, the orange juice supply may not be enough to meet the demand, especially because of the expectation of low juice stocks in June 2024.

CitrusBR says that the volume in stocks by the end of the 2022/23 season (in June/23) was only 84.745 thousand tons equivalent to concentrate juice. Cepea calculations based on the orange production forecast by Fundecitrus indicate that the volume in stocks by the end of the current season (2023/24, in June/24) may not be higher. This scenario may be reinforced in case exports continue intense and the productivity remains below-average.

Therefore, it would be important if the orange volume harvested in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro is above the average over the last years in order for the processed volume to meet exports and allow a recovery in stocks by June 2025. However, challenges faced in the second semester of 2023 (greening and heat waves) may bring difficulties for a good harvest in 2024/25.

It is worth noting that Brazil does not have major competitors regarding the global orange juice supply. Mexico, an important supplier for the US market, has been facing difficulties in the production, especially because of the dry weather, while Florida has been facing the impacts of greening. In this scenario, a decrease in the Brazilian availability might affect the world orange juice supply.

Investments

Although the profitability scenario had been positive in 2023, major investments in São Paulo are not expected for 2024, due to the high incidence of greening. The planting can continue firm in Triângulo Mineiro, but the availability of soil and water for irrigation are limited.

2023 was a very positive year for the citrus activity in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro concerning prices received by citrus farmers. Orange values were at firm levels during the year in both the in natura market and at the industry – in this segment, quotations hit record levels in real terms, allowing a year of good profitability.

This scenario is explained by the lower supply compared to the demand, despite the fact that the 2023/24 production is on average. Orange juice stocks started the season at low levels, and there was the need to purchase the raw material in order to prevent a significant decrease of stocks at the end of the current season. Moreover, the orange juice demand is firm in the international market, especially from the US, country that has been registering limited production for years due to greening (HLB) impacts.

In November, prices of orange to the industry hit real records, considering Cepea historical series, which has started in October 1994 (monthly values were deflated by IGP-DI October/23).

Orange production

The 2023/24 orange season in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro may decrease 2.2 % compared to the previous, according to Fundecitrus. The total volume is forecast at 307.22 million boxes, 0.7 % smaller in relation to the first estimate, released in May.

The decrease is related to above-average rains, which increased the incidence of blossom-end rot, to the negative biennial cycle (except in the north), the lower volume of flowers verified in some late variety trees and to the intensity of greening.

It is important to mention that this volume is below the need of the industry to meet the international demand and increase juice stocks, which are very low. According to CitrusBR, the volume in stocks hit the lowest level in 12 years, totaling only 84.745 thousand tons of volume equivalent to concentrate juice by the end of the 2022/23 season (June/23), downing 40.7 % compared to the previous crop. These critical numbers arise serious concerns about the global orange juice supply.

The combination of low orange supply and firm demand over the last weeks, due to high temperatures, has been keeping prices on the rise in both the in natura market and at the industry.

Orange prices have been hitting records in both segments – as for fruits to the industry, the current average is a real record, considering the Cepea series, which started in October 1994 (monthly prices were deflated by IGP-DI October). Even with an average crop, orange juice stocks at processing companies are low, resulting in a fruit supply that is lower than the demand.

In November, pear oranges are traded in the in natura market at BRL 58.90 per box, 45.9 % higher than in November last year (in real terms) and the highest of Cepea series, in nominal terms. In real terms, the current average is the highest since March 2019 and the fourth biggest considering the months of November.

Prices for pear orange and late varieties sent to the industry, in turn, have averaged BRL 49.04 per box in November, soaring 60.3 % compared to November/22, in real terms, and the highest of the series.

The supply in Brazil is expected to be lower than the demand at least until the end of the crop. The following season can still register a limited availability, considering that current OJ stocks may not recover at the end of the 2023/24 crop. In case the 2024/25 season continues on the average, stocks may present a new decrease. Therefore, if the crop is below-average, the situation can be critical.

The new heat wave in São Paulo state has been concerning citrus growers. Temperatures are higher than those registered in the last wave, in September, and lasting longer. Thus, many producers say that the weather may affect the 2024/25 production, but it is still early to estimate possible impacts.

Up until mid-November, high temperatures have been affecting areas with fruitlets. It is worth noting that, in the heat wave observed in September, areas with fruitlets (which had registered flowers in August) were the most affected, since weather conditions have caused fruitlets to fall.

Areas with late flowers (verified in less than 30 days) may also be damaged by the hot weather – these flowers blossomed earlier and the development stage is more advanced. Moreover, citrus growers indicate possible impacts on bigger fruits, especially in trees with high incidence of greening, with less leaves and/or in bad nutrition.

In irrigated areas, in turn, damages tend to be mitigated, since flowers are in a more advanced stage. However, these areas are located in the north of São Paulo state, where temperatures are usually higher.

As for 2023/24 oranges, players surveyed by Cepea report impacts on the quality. Many fruits are withered and sunburned, and consumers usually do not want to buy fruits with these conditions – in many cases, it is necessary to accelerate the harvest in order to avoid the premature fruit fall.

TAHITI LIME – The heat wave has also been affecting the tahiti lime. As rains have not been frequent in major producing regions, the supply has not increased in a significant way, and most fruits are small.

Despite the smaller size, producers have been harvesting fruits in order to take advantage of high prices and to avoid that the hot weather affects the quality even more.

Regular rains registered in tahiti lime producing areas since mid-September have been gradually increasing the supply of this fruit. Thus, the tahiti lime supply in October was slightly higher and it may increase more in November. The peak season is expected in December.

Due to the increasing supply, players surveyed by Cepea expect tahiti lime prices to move down in November, decreasing even more from December on.

In October, the tahiti lime was traded at BRL 68.92 per 27-kg box (harvested) in São Paulo state, downing 4.1 % in relation to September/23 and a decrease of 17.4 % compared to October/22, in nominal terms.

Orange

The season of late varieties was intensified in mid-October, and valência was the variety that was most offered, but volumes of natal oranges were also available in the market. The amount of these fruits is expected to increase significantly in November, taking part of pear orange share and increasing its importance in the juice industry. As for pear oranges, the supply has been reducing. In October, the average price was BRL 52.44 per 40.8-kg box (on tree), 11.4 % above that in September.

The second fortnight of September was marked by extremely high temperatures in São Paulo State. This scenario warned citrus growers, since intense heat may damage the oranges from both the current (2023/24) and the coming seasons (2024/25).

In the 2023/24 crop – which is currently being harvested –, the biggest problem has been wilted fruits, according to Cepea collaborators. This feature reduces both quality and remuneration, since the oranges become lighter because of the loss of water. On the other hand, for the industry, fruits quality rises slightly, due to higher yield and ºbrix.

On the other hand, for the coming season (24/25), although the effects of the hot weather from September are still uncertain, growers are concerned about fruitlet fall, which may be higher than the usual. This context could lead to a lower number of fruits per tree.

Also, the fact that many orchards have been affected by greening makes the situation worse. A survey from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) shows that 38.06 % of the trees in the citrus belt (São Paulo + Triângulo Mineiro) have had symptoms of the disease this year, 56 % above that from 2022 and the sixth consecutive year of increase in the incidence of greening.

The higher demand for orange juice from the United States raised the Brazilian exports of the commodity in the first two months of the 2023/24 exporting season (July and August). The average price paid for the national juice increased in that period too, influenced by low inventories and the lower output in Brazil. The higher volume exported and the valuation of the Brazilian juice abroad resulted in a significant increase in the revenue of exporters.

According to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), Brazil exported 182.9 thousand tons of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent in July and August, 4% more than the volume shipped in the same period of 2022. Revenue totaled USD 397.9 million, a staggering 20% up in the same comparison.

As for the types of juice exported, shipments of Not-From-Concentrate (NFC) orange juice increased 19 %, and revenue, 25 %; of FCOJ, the volume exported decreased 3 %, while the revenue rose 17 %. The different performances of the exports of these types of juice are linked to the higher demand from the US for NFC juice, whose volume sent to the North-American country rose a staggering 51 %.

The United States

For one more season, the US have been importing orange juice from Brazil. In the first two months of the current season (23/24), the US imported 50.5 thousand tons of FCOJ, an increase of 38 % compared to that in the same period of 2022/23. Revenue totaled USD 113.2 million, 57 % higher, in the same comparison.

Lower orange production in the US because of the 2022/23 crop of Florida – which has decreased 62 %, according to the USDA – and lower supply from Mexico, the second major supplier of orange juice to the US, led the country to raise imports from Brazil.

European Union

To the European Union, Brazil exported, in July and August, 112.6 thousand tons of orange juice, a slight 3 % up from that last season. Revenue totaled USD 241.9 million in the two first months of the season, 14 % higher, in the same comparison.

Crop Estimates

According to data released this week by Fundecitrus, the 2023/24 harvest in the citrus belt (São Paulo State + the Triângulo Mineiro) is expected at 309.34 million boxes of 40.8-kg each, stable compared to that estimated in May but 1.5 % lower than the output from last season. It is important to highlight that this volume is a lot lower than the industry’s needs to meet the demand from abroad and replenish inventories, which are currently very low.

Tahiti lime prices have been firm in the citrus-producing regions in São Paulo State since mid-June. However, in the first fortnight of August, quotations skyrocketed. Supply has decreased even more steeply, while demand is beginning to warm up – it is important to consider that this year’s winter has been warmer than the average.

Between August 1st and 15th, the average price for tahiti lime closed at BRL 76.70 per 27-kg box (harvested) a staggering 111.87 % up from that in July and 106.85 % above the average in the first fortnight of August of 2022, in nominal terms.

Some growers managed to sell the box for BRL 100.00 in the first half of August. With prices at high levels, many growers harvested all the fruits they were able to, in order to ensure a good revenue, offsetting at least part of the financial losses from the peak of harvest, when quotations were lower than BRL 10/box.

Cepea, collaborators believe that prices will continue high for some time, since supply in SP is only expected to resume rising after the return of rains, which usually occurs in September.

According to Cepea collaborators, in general, fruits quality (peel, amount of juice and size) is considered good, being higher in irrigated orchards – where fruits are growing bigger.

EXPORT – Domestic valuations have influenced the export value for the Brazilian tahiti lime. However, agents believe shipments will decrease soon, since sales in Brazil are expected to get good remuneration and thus reduce the attractiveness of the international market.

It is important to mention that this year’s shipments are currently at record levels, at 103.4 thousand tons (lemons and limes), 0.7 % higher than that from the same period last year, according to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat). Revenue is at USD 99.25 million, 4.4 % higher, in the same comparison.