As processing companies reduced the pace of activities of oranges in early April, part of units was then focused on crushing the tahiti lime. According to players surveyed by Cepea, this scenario helps to flow non-standard fruits to processing activities, reducing the volume in the in natura market.
Due to the higher demand from the industry, quotations were firm. In the first three months of 2025, prices paid by the industry for the tahiti lime averaged BRL 25.06 per 40.8-kg box, 55 % above that in the same period last year and the highest considering the first quarter since 2019 (BRL 29.95/box), in real terms (IGP-DI March/25).
From April 7-10, the price average of the fruit delivered at the industry was at BRL 26.00 per box, upping 13.04 % compared to that verified in the last week of March. This scenario ends up keeping the price level close to BRL 30/box in the in natura market. Tahiti lime prices are at BRL 29.22 per 27.2-kg box between April 7 and 10, downing 2.2 % compared to the week before.
Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released its report of the 2024/25 season on April 10, indicating that the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) harvested 230.87 million 40.8-kg boxes, for a decrease of 0.65 % (or 1.51 million boxes) in relation to the first estimate (May/24), but upping 1.03 % (or 2.35 million boxes) compared to that projected in February/25. In relation to the previous crop, the decrease is by 24.85 %.
The upward trend for tahiti lime values, which has been verified since carnaval in Brazil, was interrupted in late March. The price average for the tahiti lime in the last week of March was at BRL 29.60 per 27.2-kg box, for a decrease of 6.15 % compared to that in the week before.
Players surveyed by Cepea say that the decrease is related to the supply of small-sized fruits, which has been higher than expected for the in natura market. This scenario pushes away consumers at supermarkets.
High-quality fruits, in turn, have been mainly allocated to exports. The price average of shipped fruits is at BRL 40.00 per 27.2-kg box in late March, a level that has been observed since the beginning of the month and it is higher than in January (BRL 30.00/box) and in February (BRL 35.00/box).
Data from Comexstat indicate that, in 2024, the income obtained with exports of lemons totaled USD 196.15 million – that verified for mango (USD 350.3 million) continues the highest income among fruits that Brazil exports. It is worth noting that the income registered with exports of lemons in the partial of this year is already higher than that observed in January and February 2024.
Orange market
Due to the fact that early fruits were hitting the market in late March (such as westing, rubi and hamlin), values of in natura oranges dropped in São Paulo state. The price average for pear oranges in the last week of March was at BRL 98.51 per 40.8-kg box, downing 3.15% compared to that in the period before.
The low quality of orange juice and the limited demand due to high price levels have resulted in sharp price drops in the international market in this early 2025. The May/25 contract at ICE Futures dropped 20.6 % in the partial of March and 42.8 % in the accumulated of 2025, at 276.45 cents of dollar per pound on March 12.
Players surveyed by Cepea say that, in early March, the orange sugar/acid ratio was below the desirable for crushing activities. Moreover, the excess of limonin, due to a heterogeneous harvesting, has also been affecting the final product, since it increases the juice bitterness, reducing the acceptance of major consumers, such as the United States and the European Union.
Lower prices at ICE Futures contrast with the current scenario of orange juice stocks. CitrusBR released a report on March 10 indicating that inventories finished 2024 at 351,483 tons (converted to FCOJ), downing 24.2 % compared to 2023 and the lowest amount since the beginning of the series.
As for the domestic market, the low quality at this end-of-season period pressed down values paid by the industry.
Weather
The warm weather and the low volume of rainfall in São Paulo state since mid-February concerned citrus growers in early March. Many of them fear that the weather may affect both orange and tahiti lime in this end of the 2024/25 season and the citrus production in the next crop (2025/26).
The increase of the orange size, especially fruits from the fourth blossoming, and the decrease of the fruit drop rate boosted the new estimate for the 2024/25 output compared to the previous projection.
Data released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in February indicate that the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) may harvest 228.52 million 40.8-kg boxes, moving down 1.7 % (or 3.86 million boxes) compared to the first estimate, released in May/24, but upping 2.4 % (or 5.38 million boxes) in relation to the report from December/24.
Besides the good development of the fourth blossoming, Fundecitrus indicates that the rainfall has favored the production.
The higher supply against the previous crop brings a certain relief, but the sector still faces the low quality of the fruits and the low industrial productivity.
This scenario of higher supply and lower quality has been pressing quotations down. For the industry, which has been purchasing fruits at BRL 82.88/box, on average, in the second week of February, the decrease is by 3.63 % against the week before.
Florida
The orange production in Florida has also been facing challenges. The USDA indicated this month that the production in the state is likely to reach 11.5 million boxes, downing 500 thousand boxes compared to the estimate from January and a decrease of 36 % against the crop before.
The result of orange juice shipments from Brazil in the 2024/25 season already reflects the lower supply of oranges and the limited stocks of the national OJ. According to data from Comex Stat, from July to December last year, Brazil exported 448.5 thousand tons of orange juice (converted into FCOJ 66 Brix), for a decrease of 23 % compared to that observed in the same period last year and the lowest amount of the Comex Stat series, which has started in 1997. The revenue obtained with sales, in turn, rose 37 % in the same comparison, hitting the record of USD 1.96 billion.
Calculations performed to obtain the total volume exported consider the sum of the three codes available in the Comex Stat system. Specifically about the code “20091200”, which includes non-concentrate types of juice, numbers were converted into FCOJ 66 Brix. Moreover, differently from the methodology used by CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters), all ports in Brazil were taken into account, not only Santos port.
Citrus BR indicates that the volume shipped in the first six months of 2025 (the last ones of the 2024/25 season) may register a lower performance compared to the year before due to the offseason in São Paulo, which limits the availability of juice. Moreover, the international demand is low because of high OJ prices in the international market.
As for destinations of total Brazilian exports, the European Union continues as the most important, participating with 55 % of the revenue obtained with sales in the second semester of 2024. The second major destination is the United States (35 %) – data from Comex Stat.
Between July and December 2024, NFC (not from concentrate) shipments to the US accounted for 62 % of the total, against 53 % in the same period of the year before. As for the European Union, FCOJ exports accounted for circa 70 %, and NFC shipments, 30 %.
Brazil
The fourth blossoming in the citrus belt in São Paulo slightly increased the supply in late January, despite the below-expected quality of the fruits. Low stocks of orange juice have been leading some companies to purchase as many fruits as they can in the spot market in an attempt to reduce the juice deficit. Fundecitrus indicates that the good development of this last blossoming of the 2024/25 season may bring a slightly higher supply for the citrus belt.
Even with the return of rainfall in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro from October/24 on, the scenario for the 2025/26 season continues uncertain. Flowers that opened after the rains were considered satisfactory, however, the development of the crop still depends on weather conditions during the season.
The 2024/25 crop is estimated at 223.14 million 40.8-kilo boxes of oranges, for a decrease of 27.4 % compared to the previous season (2023/24) – data from Fundecitrus.
Weather adversities have been hampering the production for five consecutive seasons, which resulted in restricted inventories of juice.
Cepea calculations indicate that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the 2024/25 crop, ending this season technically zero. Thus, a very positive 2025/26 season will be necessary to have at least a slight recovery.
Not even a decrease of exports in the 2024/25 season will be enough to compensate for the reduction in the volume of fruit processed, which will maintain the demand from the industry at high levels.
Moreover, Florida has been registering a decrease in inventories and may need to import more inputs from Brazil, which helps to sustain quotations in the domestic market. Besides this scenario of limited production and stocks in Brazil, data released on December 10 by the USDA indicate that the 2024/25 orange crop may total 12 million 40.8-kg boxes, downing 20 % (or 3 million boxes) compared to the report released in October (15 million boxes). Besides the citrus greening disease, the production drop is also related to the hurricane Milton in Florida in early October 2024.
For 2025, the conditions reported in the Brazilian citrus grove may support prices throughout the year.
Orange prices hit records in 2024. Values of the 40.8 kg box were above BRL 100 in the in natura market. Increases are explained by the firm demand from part of the industry (since players have low orange juice stocks) and the restricted orange supply, because of the limited production.
The weather in the citrus belt was predominantly dry and with high temperatures during the development of the crop. Although prices allowed good profits to citrus growers, the low productivity boosted costs (which had already been high due to the citrus greening disease). Margins may be reduced in areas where the production dropped significantly, despite record prices of the fruit. As for the tahiti lime, quotations were at low levels in the first semester and increased in the second part of the year, because of the offseason period, which is a typical movement.
As a result, due to the limited orange supply and the high demand from the industry, values operated at record levels, in real terms (prices were deflated by the IGP-DI). In October, the price average paid by the industry surpassed BRL 90 per 40.8 kg box. It is worth noting that 2023/24 trades started early, in January, with quotations at around BRL 38 per box. Since inventories at the industry had been limited, the demand in the spot market increased, and prices hit records in real terms, surpassing BRL 100/box in November.
São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro are likely to harvest 223.14 million 40.8 kilo boxes of oranges in the 2024/25 season, for an increase of 7.36 million boxes (or + 3.4 %) compared to the last projection, released in September, but still 9.24 million boxes less (or – 4 %) in relation to the first estimate (May 2024). Therefore, the current season may be 27.4 % smaller than the previous (2023/24), when 307.22 million boxes were harvested – data from Fundecitrus.
The smaller production was already expected in 2024/25, due to unfavourable weather conditions and to the citrus greening disease.
The current scenario is: very limited orange juice stocks in Brazil. Thus, in order to guarantee the global OJ supply, the next production (2025/26) would need to increase in both Brazil and Florida.
As for the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union, it can favour shipments of lime, lemon and orange juice, but can also open a direct channel to receive these fruits from Spain. Still, the agreement is very important and brings good perspectives for the mid and long-terms.
The possibility of a small orange supply was reinforced due to the decrease of the number of companies operating in São Paulo state in late November. In the last two crops, when the supply was already below the normal standard, major processing companies started to reduce the pace of activities only between January and February.
In January 2024, only six plants were operating, against tem in the same period last year. At the end of November, there were seven units in activity. Players surveyed by Cepea say that there might still be a certain volume of raw material for the industry to continue processing up to February 2025, but March is still uncertain.
To make matters worse, the low supply is being verified together with low quality. According to players surveyed by Cepea, the brix-acid ratio is unsatisfactory, concerning both producers and players from the industry, since it affects the efficiency of processing activities and the quality of the final product.
The lower juice yield is especially linked to the scarcity of rains during the development of the fruits, which reduced the amount of juice in the fruit. As a result, more oranges are necessary to produce the same amount of juice.
Although it is the offseason period for the tahiti lime, quotations decreased in early November. The downward trend is related to both the size and the quality of the fruit, which are below expected by the sector. However, it is worth noting that price levels are still high.
According to data from Cepea, tahiti lime prices averaged BRL 95.59 per 27.2-kg box in mid-November, downing 16.17 % against late October.
It is worth noting that the price average for the tahiti lime was at BRL 117.94/box last month, 72.2 % more than in September and moving up 71 % against October last year, in nominal terms.
Season in Florida
The 2023/24 orange season finished in September in Florida. The Citrus Department of that state in the Unites States indicated in October that local juice stocks, as observed in Brazil, finished the season at low levels.
The limited orange supply has been frequent in the US, considering that the country has become majorly an orange juice importer since the advance of greening in Florida.
It is worth noting that Brazil is the major orange juice supplier for the US market. The fact that the Brazilian industry faced both low supply and high prices in the 2023/24 season (which limited exports) might have prevented a recovery of stocks in Florida.
Regular rains and mild weather were registered in late October in the citrus belt of São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro, the biggest orange producer for the juice industry. This scenario has helped to bring a relief for trees that were affected by the lack of rains and high temperatures.
2024/25 season
Even with the return of rainfall, the current orange crop has presented low quality. Still, rains in October may improve the quality of fruits that are still on the trees. It is worth noting that the orange crop has started in June this year and may finish between December and January/25. As for tahiti lime (the main season starts between November and December), weather conditions may favor the development, since fruits are currently below the standard.
Exports
The revenue obtained by Brazilian exporters with orange juice shipments in the partial of the 2024/25 crop (from July/24 to September/24) totaled USD 905.3 million, for an increase of 42.3 % compared to the same period of the last season (USD 636.1 million), according to Comex Stat.
The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil, in turn, continues decreasing, as it has been verified since the 2023/24 crop. From July to September/24, Brazil shipped 207.5 thousand tons of orange juice, downing 27 % in relation to the same period in 2023.
The lower volume exported is linked to the limited supply. Weather adversities have been hampering the production for five consecutive seasons, which resulted in restricted inventories of juice.
High temperatures in São Paulo state in early October reinforced producers’ concerns, since this scenario can affect both fruits that are on the trees (from the current season, 2023/24) and the production of the next crop (2024/25), especially non-irrigated areas. Therefore, in mid-October, citrus growers were waiting for the rainfall in major producing regions.
So far, the biggest challenge for the current season (2023/24) has been the fact that fruits have wilted, which affects directly the quality, according to players surveyed by Cepea. In normal conditions, this quality loss would press quotations down; however, due to the limited supply this season, prices remain firm.
As for the 2024/25 crop, scenarios are distinct between irrigated and non-irrigated areas. In irrigated regions in São Paulo state, the fruit development is more advanced, but producers were still concerned with high temperatures.
On the other hand, most trees in non-irrigated areas have not blossomed yet. Thus, the return of rains is essential to mitigate the lack of soil humidity and encourage the blossoming.
The 2024/25 orange crushing was moving at a good pace at juice processing companies in São Paulo state at the end of September. According to players, the pear orange has been the most processed variety; however, the harvesting pace has been progressing, and the participation of late fruits (such as valencia and natal) has been increasing.
The harvesting is more advanced due to the higher share of fruits from the first blossoming. Data from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) indicate that 64 % of oranges produced in this season account for the first blossoming, higher than the last four crops (36 % of the fruits, at most). Thus, the crushing pace is likely to reduce earlier this year – the second blossoming considers fruits that will be harvested from October on, according to Fundecitrus.
In addition to that, greening (HLB – Huanglongbing), above-average temperatures and the dry weather also accelerate the harvesting. As for greening, one of the symptoms of the disease is the early fruit drop, and producers may harvest in advance to avoid losses. Weather conditions, in turn, accelerate the ripening and may result in early fruit drop.
The share of late fruits in processing activities is likely to be higher in October, but the amount of pear oranges allocated to juice production can still be relevant.
Stocks
Cepea calculations, based on data released by CitrusBR on Sept. 19, indicate that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the current crop (2024/25), ending this season technically zero. Not even the forecast of improvement in industrial yield (due to below-average rainfall) and limited exports will be enough to compensate for the decrease in the volume of fruit processed.
According to CitrusBR, the stocked quantity of the commodity was 116.7 thousand tons at the end of 2023/24 crop (on June 30, 2024), being 37.7 % higher than that on the same period last year, but the third lowest in history (the series has started in 1988/89).
Most part of São Paulo state registered high temperatures in early September. This scenario brought concerns for citrus growers, who may face another year of significant heat waves.
Climatempo says that heat waves in September have become more common in most part of Brazil; however, they have been more intense and are lasting longer.
2024/25 CROP – São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro may harvest 215.78 million 40.8-kg boxes in the 2024/25 orange season, according to data released by Fundecitrus on September 10. The volume may be 30 % less than in the crop before, which registered average production, and below the first projection, of 232.38 million boxes.
The decrease is related to the smaller fruit size, due to the dry and warm weather. The weather also accelerated the harvesting pace, since it influenced the ripening. More than half of the crop can be harvested in this dry weather scenario because rains are forecast only for late September.
The volume of rainfall was small in almost all areas in the citrus belt, except in the southwestern region of São Paulo. Fundecitrus indicates that the only area where the production is expected to increase in this season is the southwest of SP – the harvest may be 19 % higher than in 2023/24. In other regions, the production decrease can be between 28 % and 60 %.
Recent wildfires in several areas in São Paulo state concerned players. According to data gathered by Cepea, wildfires hit some citrus areas, especially the central-north of the state; however, this scenario may not bring significant impacts on the volume of fruits available in the market.
According to players surveyed by Cepea, the areas hit by wildfires are small and the landowners were able to control them rapidly. The rainfall in some areas also helped to control the problem. Damages were more significant for other crops, especially sugarcane.
Market
Prices for the pear orange have been at historical levels this year both in the in natura market and in the industrial segment. The limited supply of the current season and the firm demand from the industry explain this scenario. The price average was at BRL 100.00 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, at the end of August.
However, the cold wave in São Paulo state in late August led consumers to be away from trades in the orange market. This scenario was reinforced by the end-of-the month period. On the other hand, the limited supply and high prices of industrial contracts continued to sustain quotations in the in natura market.
The 2024/25 crop-year for orange juice exports (from July/24 to June/25) has started in July and shipments, which had been moving down in 2023/24, continued to move at a slow pace. This scenario was already expected, since the supply is limited in Brazil, due to the confirmation of a smaller orange production in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro. At the same time, Brazilian imports of in natura orange and tangerine rose in July.
Orange juice exports
According to Comex Stat, Brazil shipped 53.4 thousand tons of orange juice in July, downing 38 % compared to the same month in 2023. The limited supply boosted quotations. As a result, the revenue totaled USD 198.9 million in July/24, for an increase of 9 % in relation to July/23.
NFC orange juice shipments amounted 164.2 thousand tons in July/24, and the revenue totaled USD 96.45 million, upping 3 % and 55 % against July/23. As for FCOJ exports, the total was 23.6 thousand tons (-59 %), and the revenue was USD 102.4 million (-15 % in one year).
In natura citrus fruits imports
In natura orange imports are at record volumes this year, boosted by the low domestic supply and high prices of national fruits. According to data from Comex Stat, from January to July, 34.8 thousand tons were imported, 87 % up in relation to the same period last year. Expenses amounted USD 24.7 million, 72 % more this year against the previous.
As for tangerines, the volume purchased by Brazil in the partial of 2024 totaled 14.5 thousand tons, 96 % more than in the period from January to July last year. Expenses are at USD 15.65 million (+89 %).
Domestic market
Quotations of citrus fruits surveyed by Cepea may continue to increase in August, sustained by expectations of a limited supply for all varieties. This scenario can be verified despite the orange season peak.
The orange harvesting is moving at a good pace in the citrus belt, but most part of the produce has been allocated to the juice industry. Factories continue with high prices to purchase the raw material, leading many producers that typically operate in the in natura market to allocate oranges for processing activities. Therefore, not even the low demand, due to mild temperatures, was able to press down quotations.
After weeks of dry weather, rains were registered in many citrus areas in São Paulo state in mid-July. Although the volume of rainfall was not homogeneous among regions (rains were registered especially in the south and in the southwest of São Paulo state), it brought a certain relief for citrus growers, who were concerned with the dry weather that had already been affecting the trees.
The rainfall was more significant in the southwest of SP state; thus, flowers may start blossoming. In areas where rains were less abundant (or they were not registered), more humidity is necessary for the flowers to blossom.
As for the tahiti lime, the recent rainfall is not likely to increase the supply in this moment, but it may favor the harvest and the quality in the coming weeks.
Juice exports decrease in the 2023/24 season
Brazilian shipments of orange juice dropped in the 2023/24 season (from July 2023 to June 2024), after increasing in the previous crop. Brazil exported 1 million tons, downing 8.1 % compared to the season before (data from Comex Stat). The revenue totaled USD 2.7 billion, for an increase of 25 % in the same comparison. The export decrease is mainly related to the low volume of juice in stocks in Brazil.
Processing activities
The orange processing continues to move at a fast pace in São Paulo state. Some players from the industry surveyed by Cepea say that the crushing is more advanced this season, and that the processing activities of early varieties are likely to reduce this month. Last year, the processing finished only in the second fortnight of September; however, in 2024/25, activities are expected to end in July or in August.
Due to the presence of greening (Huanglongbing) in São Paulo and to the recent imbalance between supply and demand for oranges, both producers and processors have been looking for options to increase the planted area in regions outside the citrus belt, without the phytosanitary risks in SP. There have been reports of new plantings in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais (out of Triângulo Mineiro) and Goiás, areas that are not typical citrus producers.
Investments are indeed not recommended depending on the region of São Paulo state, although major processing units are located there. Many areas have high incidence of greening, which hinders new plantings. According to data from Fundecitrus, 38 % of the trees in the citrus belt had symptoms of the disease in 2023, the sixth year in a row of greening increase. It is worth noting that new plants tend to be more vulnerable to the disease, increasing costs with prevention and chances of infection.
Therefore, plantings outside SP are an option. The land availability is higher, reducing costs, and there is the absence of greening and other diseases. Moreover, the industrial productivity can be higher than in SP, due to the warmer weather, which is positive for processing companies.
On the other hand, the fact that the areas are unknown for the citrus activity concerns players, since this scenario would demand adjustments in management and irrigation, which cannot be necessarily the same as those verified in SP.
Although these regions are warmer than SP (which can favor the productivity), it tends to affect the development of the trees. Additionally, costs with freight can be higher because of logistical issues.
It is worth noting that these investments in other regions are new and, therefore, they may not affect the orange supply in the short-term – it can be verified in roughly three years, when plants start producing.
Market
The supply of citrus fruits in the in natura market in São Paulo may be low in July. As for oranges, the lower availability has been verified since the middle of last year and it is also attributed to the high demand from the industry – it is worth noting that juice stocks at processing companies may finish the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) at low levels.
Players surveyed by Cepea say that even producers who typically sell to the in natura market are focusing on sending the product to the industry this season, since prices are more attractive and there are some advantages compared to the in natura market.
The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil in the partial of the 2023/24 season (from July/23 to May/24) remains below that registered in the same period of the previous crop. According to data from Comex Stat, Brazil exported 914.9 thousand tons of orange juice, for a decrease of 8.9 % compared to the same period last season.
The revenue, in turn, totaled USD 2.47 billion, moving up 22 % this season in relation to the previous. The main reason for the increase in revenue was the higher price paid per ton of juice, which rose due to the low availability of the commodity in Brazil, according to agents consulted by Cepea.
OJ shipments to the European Union amounted 489.79 thousand tons from July/23 to May/24, downing 8.2 % against the same period of 2022/23. The income, in turn, rose 27 %, at USD 1.35 billion. To the US, exports dropped 11 % in relation to that in 2022/23, at 293.64 thousand tons. The income verified between July/23 and May/24 was USD 737 million, 9 % up against the same period last season.
Domestic market
Prices of oranges allocated to processing activities have been moving up since March, when contracts involving the 2024/25 season have started to be closed. In early June, values of the fruit traded in the spot market in São Paulo state hit BRL 85.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered, a new record of Cepea series, which started in 1994, in real terms (averages were deflated by the IGP-DI).
Price rises are related to both the higher demand and the limited supply. As for the demand, the industry needs to purchase the raw material, because orange juice stocks are very low. Concerning the supply, the fruit output may be small again in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro.
The orange processing of the 2024/25 season may be intensified in May. Three of the major processors and other two small companies (tool) have been operating at the moment. At least three more units are expected to start activities still in early May.
In the same period of 2023, only three units were operating, and a fourth company started crushing in the second week of the month. This scenario indicates a higher intensity of processing activities this year. Although current volumes are not high yet, players from the industry say that some companies have started operating in order to avoid fruit losses in a year of low supply.
Prices at companies remain firm, reaching BRL 70.00 per box for fruits of the new season. In cases of higher volumes, values can be even higher.
Due to the increase of industrial activities, the downward trend of orange prices in the in natura market, verified in April, is likely to slow down, since producers will have the industry as an option to sell the product. In April, the average for the in natura pear orange, of BRL 91.28 per 40.8-kilo box, in tree, was 3 % lower than in March.
The demand for oranges, in turn, is expected to decrease in May, because of the supply of ponkan tangerine. Moreover, possible milder temperatures in the Brazilian autumn tend to reduce the consumption.
Tahiti lime
The rainfall favoured the development of the tahiti lime in São Paulo state, increasing the supply.
The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil in the partial of the 2023/24 season (from July/23 to March/24) was below that registered in the same period of the previous crop. According to players from the industry, the low availability of the commodity in the Brazilian market may be limiting shipments. As for prices of the juice sold to the international market, they moved up.
The 2023/24 season in Brazil is expected to finish (in June/24) with reduced orange juice stocks at the industry. As a result, some players are unwilling to export large amounts in order to avoid having zero stocks by the end of 2023/24.
According to data from Comex Stat, Brazil exported 812.2 thousand tons of orange juice in the partial of 2023/24, for a decrease of 7.7 % compared to the same period last season. The revenue totaled USD 2.08 billion, moving up 23 % this season in relation to the previous and close to the total registered in the crop before (USD 2.14 billion up to June/23).
OJ shipments to the European Union amounted 419.9 thousand tons from July/23 to March/24, downing 7.7 % against the same period of 2022/23. The income, in turn, rose 26 %, at USD 1.1 billion. To the US, exports dropped 4.4 % in relation to that in 2022/23, at 265.7 thousand tons. The income verified between July/23 and March/24 was USD 667.1 million, 18 % up against the same period last season.
Market in Brazil
The market of the tahiti lime in São Paulo closed March with firm prices. Players surveyed by Cepea say that this is related to the low supply, since rains affected the harvest. As a result, the monthly price average was BRL 31.17 per 27-kilo box, harvested, 55 % up in relation to February.
As for the orange, prices also closed March at higher levels. The supply was low (due to the offseason period and to the good demand from the industry) and the demand in the in natura market was firm, because of high temperatures. Therefore, the price average was BRL 93.56 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, upping 7 % in relation to February.
Harvesting activities for ponkan tangerine have started in March in São Paulo state, but the volumes available are still limited. According to players surveyed by Cepea, the supply is expected to increase significantly from April onwards, when more fruits hit the ideal ripening stage.
First tangerines harvested come from irrigated orange groves, where the development is more advanced, such as in the north of São Paulo state and Minas Gerais.
The season is expected to continue up to mid-August, and the volume harvested may be similar to that registered in the last crop, according to agents surveyed by Cepea. As for the quality, it has been considered satisfactory, in spite of some cases of Alternaria citri, which have been controlled successfully.
The current low supply of ponkan tangerine has been keeping quotations attractive to producers. From March 25-28, the price average was at BRL 95.53 per 27-kilo box, on tree, 36.4 % up compared to the same period in 2023, in nominal terms.
The holidays of Good Friday and Easter, the end-of-the-month period and lower temperatures in late March have limited the demand for oranges. However, prices continue to move up due to the restricted supply. As for the tahiti lime, despite the low consumption, rains and the slow pace of the harvest limited the supply, boosting quotations.
Brazilian orange juice processors finished 2023 with low stocks. A report released by CitrusBR in March indicates that the volume was 463.94 thousand tons (equivalent to concentrate juice) on December 31, 2023, being 6.7 % higher than that on the same day last year, but the second lowest in history (the series has started in 2011).
Considering that the industry is practically in the offseason period, and, therefore, they have been using stocks to supply the international market, the stocked volume is likely to decrease month after month. This scenario brings concerns about the global supply, since Brazil is the biggest world exporter, and, although there are no forecasts for the next crop (2024/25) yet, the orange production may not increase compared to the current season.
CitrusBR has not projected the ending stocks for the orange juice industry this season. However, data from Cepea indicate that stocks may finish the season higher than in the previous, especially because of the decrease in exports.
Taking 2023/24 initial stocks, of 84.75 thousand tons (CitrusBR), processing of 267 million boxes (discounting the 40 million boxes of the in natura market of the total volume projected by Fundecitrus), the same juice yield of the previous crop and the 6 % decrease of exports (from July/23 to February/24), the amount in stocks by the end of the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) would be only 94.5 thousand tons, 11 % more than in the same period last year.
In spite of the projection of an increase compared to the last season, it is worth noting that 2022/23 ending stocks were the lowest in recent history.
Production
The rainfall in orange producing areas in São Paulo state has been favoring the 2024/25 season. Players surveyed by Cepea say that the good humidity has been positive for the fruits, allowing to anticipate the harvest of early varieties, which have started to be offered in the in natura market in February and may be intensified in March.
Pear orange prices in the in natura market hit a new record in February, considering Cepea historical series, which has started in October 1994 – values were deflated by IGP-DI December/23. Quotations are likely to continue at high levels in March, since the volume of early varieties in the spot market in São Paulo is still small.
In February, pear orange prices averaged BRL 87.40 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 9.29 % up compared to January/24 and an increase of 83 % in relation to February/23 (in this case, in nominal terms). Price rises are linked to the lower supply in this offseason period, while the supply of late and early varieties is also limited. It is worth noting that the firm industrial demand reduced even more the fruit availability in the domestic market during the entire season.
TAHITI LIME – Prices have started February in a downward trend; however, they rose during the month, leading to an increase of the monthly average. Although it is the peak season, frequent rains limited the harvest and, consequently, the supply. Moreover, weather conditions have been favoring the fruit quality.
In this scenario, the tahiti lime price average in the in natura market was BRL 20.11 per 27-kg box (harvested) in February, moving up 46.36 % and 104 % in relation to January/24 and February/23, respectively, in nominal terms.
Values are likely to remain firm in March because of the lower volume that will be harvested. Moreover, exports may increase, especially due to the proximity of Easter, which can influence to flow the product.
Pear orange prices have been moving up since the beginning of the 2023/24 season in the in natura market. In January, values hit the record of Cepea series, which has started in 1994. In the first month of 2024, the price average was BRL 78.89 per 40.8-kilo box, moving up 16% compared to December/23 and 90% in relation to January/23, in real terms (values were deflated by IGP-DI Dec/23). Up until January/24, the highest value in real terms had been BRL 74.92/box, in November 1994.
This scenario of high prices is related to the limited supply. The production in the current crop is on average; however, low orange juice stocks increase the need to buy the raw material, reducing the orange supply in the in natura market.
As for the demand, players surveyed by Cepea say that it is firm, since temperatures are high, favoring the consumption of the fruit.
The pear orange supply is expected to continue limited in February, which is still considered offseason.
Industry
Prices for pear orange and late varieties for the industry had hit a real record in November. Since then, they have been renewing the record level of Cepea series, which has started in 1994. However, values are now moving down, considering the closing of new trades.
The price average for pear orange and late varieties for the industry was BRL 57.68 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered, in January, increasing 10% against the month before and 76% in relation to January 2023, in real terms.
Tahiti lime
Prices finished January at low levels, due to the peak season. The price average in January 2024 was BRL 13.56 per 27-kg box (harvested), for a decrease of 28% compared to the last month of 2023.
The tahiti lime supply is expected to continue high in February, due to rains in January, which can favor both the fruit development and the quality.
In 2024, orange prices paid to citrus growers in São Paulo/Triângulo Mineiro may remain at high levels. The supply may continue to be lower than the industrial demand, keeping the availability limited in the in natura market.
So far, there are no solid aspects that allow to project the volume that will be harvested in the 2024/25 season; however, the orange juice supply may not be enough to meet the demand, especially because of the expectation of low juice stocks in June 2024.
CitrusBR says that the volume in stocks by the end of the 2022/23 season (in June/23) was only 84.745 thousand tons equivalent to concentrate juice. Cepea calculations based on the orange production forecast by Fundecitrus indicate that the volume in stocks by the end of the current season (2023/24, in June/24) may not be higher. This scenario may be reinforced in case exports continue intense and the productivity remains below-average.
Therefore, it would be important if the orange volume harvested in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro is above the average over the last years in order for the processed volume to meet exports and allow a recovery in stocks by June 2025. However, challenges faced in the second semester of 2023 (greening and heat waves) may bring difficulties for a good harvest in 2024/25.
It is worth noting that Brazil does not have major competitors regarding the global orange juice supply. Mexico, an important supplier for the US market, has been facing difficulties in the production, especially because of the dry weather, while Florida has been facing the impacts of greening. In this scenario, a decrease in the Brazilian availability might affect the world orange juice supply.
Investments
Although the profitability scenario had been positive in 2023, major investments in São Paulo are not expected for 2024, due to the high incidence of greening. The planting can continue firm in Triângulo Mineiro, but the availability of soil and water for irrigation are limited.
2023 was a very positive year for the citrus activity in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro concerning prices received by citrus farmers. Orange values were at firm levels during the year in both the in natura market and at the industry – in this segment, quotations hit record levels in real terms, allowing a year of good profitability.
This scenario is explained by the lower supply compared to the demand, despite the fact that the 2023/24 production is on average. Orange juice stocks started the season at low levels, and there was the need to purchase the raw material in order to prevent a significant decrease of stocks at the end of the current season. Moreover, the orange juice demand is firm in the international market, especially from the US, country that has been registering limited production for years due to greening (HLB) impacts.
In November, prices of orange to the industry hit real records, considering Cepea historical series, which has started in October 1994 (monthly values were deflated by IGP-DI October/23).
Orange production
The 2023/24 orange season in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro may decrease 2.2 % compared to the previous, according to Fundecitrus. The total volume is forecast at 307.22 million boxes, 0.7 % smaller in relation to the first estimate, released in May.
The decrease is related to above-average rains, which increased the incidence of blossom-end rot, to the negative biennial cycle (except in the north), the lower volume of flowers verified in some late variety trees and to the intensity of greening.
It is important to mention that this volume is below the need of the industry to meet the international demand and increase juice stocks, which are very low. According to CitrusBR, the volume in stocks hit the lowest level in 12 years, totaling only 84.745 thousand tons of volume equivalent to concentrate juice by the end of the 2022/23 season (June/23), downing 40.7 % compared to the previous crop. These critical numbers arise serious concerns about the global orange juice supply.
The combination of low orange supply and firm demand over the last weeks, due to high temperatures, has been keeping prices on the rise in both the in natura market and at the industry.
Orange prices have been hitting records in both segments – as for fruits to the industry, the current average is a real record, considering the Cepea series, which started in October 1994 (monthly prices were deflated by IGP-DI October). Even with an average crop, orange juice stocks at processing companies are low, resulting in a fruit supply that is lower than the demand.
In November, pear oranges are traded in the in natura market at BRL 58.90 per box, 45.9 % higher than in November last year (in real terms) and the highest of Cepea series, in nominal terms. In real terms, the current average is the highest since March 2019 and the fourth biggest considering the months of November.
Prices for pear orange and late varieties sent to the industry, in turn, have averaged BRL 49.04 per box in November, soaring 60.3 % compared to November/22, in real terms, and the highest of the series.
The supply in Brazil is expected to be lower than the demand at least until the end of the crop. The following season can still register a limited availability, considering that current OJ stocks may not recover at the end of the 2023/24 crop. In case the 2024/25 season continues on the average, stocks may present a new decrease. Therefore, if the crop is below-average, the situation can be critical.
The new heat wave in São Paulo state has been concerning citrus growers. Temperatures are higher than those registered in the last wave, in September, and lasting longer. Thus, many producers say that the weather may affect the 2024/25 production, but it is still early to estimate possible impacts.
Up until mid-November, high temperatures have been affecting areas with fruitlets. It is worth noting that, in the heat wave observed in September, areas with fruitlets (which had registered flowers in August) were the most affected, since weather conditions have caused fruitlets to fall.
Areas with late flowers (verified in less than 30 days) may also be damaged by the hot weather – these flowers blossomed earlier and the development stage is more advanced. Moreover, citrus growers indicate possible impacts on bigger fruits, especially in trees with high incidence of greening, with less leaves and/or in bad nutrition.
In irrigated areas, in turn, damages tend to be mitigated, since flowers are in a more advanced stage. However, these areas are located in the north of São Paulo state, where temperatures are usually higher.
As for 2023/24 oranges, players surveyed by Cepea report impacts on the quality. Many fruits are withered and sunburned, and consumers usually do not want to buy fruits with these conditions – in many cases, it is necessary to accelerate the harvest in order to avoid the premature fruit fall.
TAHITI LIME – The heat wave has also been affecting the tahiti lime. As rains have not been frequent in major producing regions, the supply has not increased in a significant way, and most fruits are small.
Despite the smaller size, producers have been harvesting fruits in order to take advantage of high prices and to avoid that the hot weather affects the quality even more.
Regular rains registered in tahiti lime producing areas since mid-September have been gradually increasing the supply of this fruit. Thus, the tahiti lime supply in October was slightly higher and it may increase more in November. The peak season is expected in December.
Due to the increasing supply, players surveyed by Cepea expect tahiti lime prices to move down in November, decreasing even more from December on.
In October, the tahiti lime was traded at BRL 68.92 per 27-kg box (harvested) in São Paulo state, downing 4.1 % in relation to September/23 and a decrease of 17.4 % compared to October/22, in nominal terms.
Orange
The season of late varieties was intensified in mid-October, and valência was the variety that was most offered, but volumes of natal oranges were also available in the market. The amount of these fruits is expected to increase significantly in November, taking part of pear orange share and increasing its importance in the juice industry. As for pear oranges, the supply has been reducing. In October, the average price was BRL 52.44 per 40.8-kg box (on tree), 11.4 % above that in September.
The second fortnight of September was marked by extremely high temperatures in São Paulo State. This scenario warned citrus growers, since intense heat may damage the oranges from both the current (2023/24) and the coming seasons (2024/25).
In the 2023/24 crop – which is currently being harvested –, the biggest problem has been wilted fruits, according to Cepea collaborators. This feature reduces both quality and remuneration, since the oranges become lighter because of the loss of water. On the other hand, for the industry, fruits quality rises slightly, due to higher yield and ºbrix.
On the other hand, for the coming season (24/25), although the effects of the hot weather from September are still uncertain, growers are concerned about fruitlet fall, which may be higher than the usual. This context could lead to a lower number of fruits per tree.
Also, the fact that many orchards have been affected by greening makes the situation worse. A survey from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) shows that 38.06 % of the trees in the citrus belt (São Paulo + Triângulo Mineiro) have had symptoms of the disease this year, 56 % above that from 2022 and the sixth consecutive year of increase in the incidence of greening.
The higher demand for orange juice from the United States raised the Brazilian exports of the commodity in the first two months of the 2023/24 exporting season (July and August). The average price paid for the national juice increased in that period too, influenced by low inventories and the lower output in Brazil. The higher volume exported and the valuation of the Brazilian juice abroad resulted in a significant increase in the revenue of exporters.
According to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), Brazil exported 182.9 thousand tons of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent in July and August, 4% more than the volume shipped in the same period of 2022. Revenue totaled USD 397.9 million, a staggering 20% up in the same comparison.
As for the types of juice exported, shipments of Not-From-Concentrate (NFC) orange juice increased 19 %, and revenue, 25 %; of FCOJ, the volume exported decreased 3 %, while the revenue rose 17 %. The different performances of the exports of these types of juice are linked to the higher demand from the US for NFC juice, whose volume sent to the North-American country rose a staggering 51 %.
The United States
For one more season, the US have been importing orange juice from Brazil. In the first two months of the current season (23/24), the US imported 50.5 thousand tons of FCOJ, an increase of 38 % compared to that in the same period of 2022/23. Revenue totaled USD 113.2 million, 57 % higher, in the same comparison.
Lower orange production in the US because of the 2022/23 crop of Florida – which has decreased 62 %, according to the USDA – and lower supply from Mexico, the second major supplier of orange juice to the US, led the country to raise imports from Brazil.
European Union
To the European Union, Brazil exported, in July and August, 112.6 thousand tons of orange juice, a slight 3 % up from that last season. Revenue totaled USD 241.9 million in the two first months of the season, 14 % higher, in the same comparison.
Crop Estimates
According to data released this week by Fundecitrus, the 2023/24 harvest in the citrus belt (São Paulo State + the Triângulo Mineiro) is expected at 309.34 million boxes of 40.8-kg each, stable compared to that estimated in May but 1.5 % lower than the output from last season. It is important to highlight that this volume is a lot lower than the industry’s needs to meet the demand from abroad and replenish inventories, which are currently very low.
Tahiti lime prices have been firm in the citrus-producing regions in São Paulo State since mid-June. However, in the first fortnight of August, quotations skyrocketed. Supply has decreased even more steeply, while demand is beginning to warm up – it is important to consider that this year’s winter has been warmer than the average.
Between August 1st and 15th, the average price for tahiti lime closed at BRL 76.70 per 27-kg box (harvested) a staggering 111.87 % up from that in July and 106.85 % above the average in the first fortnight of August of 2022, in nominal terms.
Some growers managed to sell the box for BRL 100.00 in the first half of August. With prices at high levels, many growers harvested all the fruits they were able to, in order to ensure a good revenue, offsetting at least part of the financial losses from the peak of harvest, when quotations were lower than BRL 10/box.
Cepea, collaborators believe that prices will continue high for some time, since supply in SP is only expected to resume rising after the return of rains, which usually occurs in September.
According to Cepea collaborators, in general, fruits quality (peel, amount of juice and size) is considered good, being higher in irrigated orchards – where fruits are growing bigger.
EXPORT – Domestic valuations have influenced the export value for the Brazilian tahiti lime. However, agents believe shipments will decrease soon, since sales in Brazil are expected to get good remuneration and thus reduce the attractiveness of the international market.
It is important to mention that this year’s shipments are currently at record levels, at 103.4 thousand tons (lemons and limes), 0.7 % higher than that from the same period last year, according to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat). Revenue is at USD 99.25 million, 4.4 % higher, in the same comparison.
The Brazilian exports of orange juice increased in the 2022/23 season (July/22 – June/23), after fading for two consecutive seasons. According to data from Secex, Brazil exported 1.09 million tons of the product (Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice FCOJ Equivalent) in the 22/23 crop, 9 % up the volume shipped in the previous season. The revenue received from these shipments totaled USD 2.1 billion, a staggering 28 % up, in the same comparison.
Although the consumption of orange juice is not increasing in the major destinations of the Brazilian product – and despite the low national inventories –, the United States had higher import needs in the last years, due to the steep production decrease in Florida – mainly in the current season, 2022/23 –, which had been facing the effects of greening and was hit by hurricanes late last year.
According to Secex, the Brazilian exports of orange juice to the US have increased high this season, totaling 340.9 thousand tons, 69 % higher than the volume shipped in 2021/22. Revenue totaled USD 701.9 million, a staggering 93 % up, in the same comparison. As production is not expected to rise high in Florida in the short term, the US may continue with high imports needs, and Brazil is the number one supplier of orange juice in the world.
In a report released in June, Florida Citrus Department confirmed higher imports to the US: between Oct/22 and Apr/23, the country doubled the volume of FCOJ imported from Brazil compared to that in the previous season; of NFC (Not-From-Concentrate) orange juice, shipments rose 82 %.
EUROPEAN UNION – To the European Union, the number one destination of the Brazilian orange juice, exports totaled 569.6 thousand tons in the 2022/23 season, 8 % less than that shipped in the previous season. Revenue totaled USD 1.13 billion, 9 % up, in the same comparison.
Orange supply has been low in Brazil since early 2023. In April, the pear oranges available in the market were the ones that ripen out of the usual period. However, the ones that were harvested earlier are not well accepted by consumers in the table market, since they did not reach the ideal maturation stage.
Despite low supply, pear orange prices weakened, due to the arrival of early varieties, such as hamlin, westin and rubi, to the market. Last month, the average price for pear oranges closed at BRL 46.87 per 40.8-kg box (on tree), 3.08 % lower than that from March but still 11.56 % higher than that in April last year, in nominal terms.
As the availability of pear oranges is low, many farmers – majorly in northern SP – tried to anticipate the harvesting of early varieties, aiming to take advantage of the current firm prices and make cash flow during the inter-harvest.
Ponkan tangerine
The prices for ponkan tangerine dropped last month too. While in March, supply was low, in April, the harvesting stepped up. Still, availability was not that high. The average price for ponkan tangerine closed at BRL 64.07 per 27-kg box (on tree) in April, 8.56 % lower than that in March but 40.6 % up from that in April/22, in nominal terms.
Tahiti lime
Opposite to the scenarios observed in the markets of oranges and ponkan tangerine, for tahiti lime, prices are on the rise, boosted by low supply – as the peak of harvest took place in the first bimester of 2023, supply in lower now.
The 2022/23 orange season in the citrus belt (São Paulo State and the Triângulo Mineiro) is ending, while the oranges from next season are still green. Thus, the volume of oranges being processed at the plants in SP has been low. Considering large-sized plants, only three of them were processing oranges in March. In the same period last year, the scenario was the same, while in 2021, only one plant was in operation, which confirms that industrial activity is still high for this time of the year.
However, one of these plants is forecast to end activities in April, since orange availability is low. So far, the prices paid by the industry in the spot market have been around BRL 38.00 per 40.8-kg box (harvested and delivered). Considering the oranges from the new season (2023/24), bids have been higher, at BRL 40/box, however, the farmers consulted by Cepea reported some deals at BRL 42/box.
Most of the oranges from the 23/24 season has been sold. Thus, the number of fruits available in the spot market in 2023/24 will be low. However, processors’ needs are high, since their juice inventories are low.
As for the oranges not purchased yet, agents from processors reported that farmers are not rushing to sell them, since quotations have been firm in the table market, which may lead them to send the ripen fruits to this segment. These fruits may also be sent to small-sized plants that produce whole juice, which continue to process fruits and are paying up to BRL 45/box. However, for the production of whole juice, quality requirements are usually higher.
Orange processing in the 2023/24 season is forecast to begin in mid-May at large-sized processors. However, only from June onwards the volume is expected to increase.
The Brazilian exports of orange juice are on the rise in the current season (2022/23). According to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), between July/22 and Feb/23, Brazil exported 776.3 thousand tons of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent, 14 % more than that shipped in the same period of the previous season. Revenue totaled USD 1.5 billion, 34 % higher, in the same comparison.
The higher increase in the revenue than in the volume exported highlights the higher average price paid for the commodity exported by Brazil. Data from Secex show that the quotations for the national FCOJ Equivalent rose 22 % between the last and the current seasons, and for Not-From-Concentrate juice, 7 %.
Exports to the European Union, the number one destination for the Brazilian orange juice, have decreased 2 % this season, while revenue has increased 16 % because of the recent valuations.
To the United States, exports are on the rise. In the current season, 240 thousand tons of the product have been shipped to this destination, a staggering 82 % up from that last season. Revenue more than doubled (+ 110 %), totaling USD 478.7 million. With shipments to the EU being stable and the increase to the USA, the share of the Brazilian juice in the total imported by the USA rose from 19 % in 2021/22 to 31 % in 2022/23.
It is important to mention that America’s high demand for the Brazilian juice is linked to the fact that the 2022/23 orange season in Florida has been compromised by the high incidence of greening and natural disasters, such as hurricanes and frosts.
The processing of the oranges from the 2022/23 crop is beginning to slow down in Brazil, but it is still higher than the usual for this time of the year. In February, five plants – of the large-sized processors – were operating, the same as that last year but much more than that in 2020 and in 2021, when only a single plant was processing oranges.
According to Cepea collaborators, last year, the orange harvest was delayed, which explained the higher volume being processed in February. However, in the 2022/23 season, late processing is due to rains, which are hampering crop activities – although workers manage to get into the groves to harvest oranges, transportation is being difficulted.
The end of processing is still uncertain. Agents from processors reported that planning has been postponed because of the difficulties in crop activities. So far, some plants are expected to continue to process oranges in March.
A frequent concern among agents from processors is the yield of the oranges being harvested, majorly in 2023. They reported that, with frequent rainfall, the quality of the fruits for juice production has decreased, raising the number of boxes needed to the produce a ton of concentrated juice – higher moisture raises water absorption by fruits.
As for prices in the spot market, they were up to BRL 38.00 per 40.8-kilo box (harvested and delivered to processor) in February, considering large-sized companies. At smaller-sized processors, the prices paid for pear and late oranges reached BRL 40.00/box.
For the new crop (2023/24), whose processing is expected to begin in May/June, bids from large-sized processors have been up to BRL 38.00/box. Agents from processors reported that, despite the increase compared to the first bids for the 2022/23 crop, farmers expected higher prices, and, thus, many of them postponed deals.
ORANGE JUICE – Despite the valuation of concentrated orange juice at ICE Futures in recent months, there have not been major reflexes on processors’ revenue. According to Cepea collaborators, most of the juice is being sold through contracts with fixed prices. Since Jan. 1st, the contract due in March has valued 19%%, closing at USD 3,543/ton on Feb. 23rd.
TAHITI LIME – Tahiti lime processing was high in February but is expected to slow down in March. The company that processes tahiti lime aims to receive lower volumes of the fruit in the coming weeks. In February, two plants were receiving tahiti lime, but from March onwards, only one of them is expected to keep activities going. The prices paid by large and small-sized processors for tahiti lime are between BRL 12 and BRL 14/box.
Flowers of the 2023/24 crop, verified in the second semester of 2022, were considered excellent in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro, which resulted in expectations of a good harvest. However, the weather after flowers blossomed was not ideal in many areas. Therefore, the next season may register lower supply compared to the demand.
Areas that have irrigation system (44 % of the total is located in the north of São Paulo state) registered anticipated flowers (in mid-July), and the weather was good after the blossoming. In this case, the development is considered satisfactory.
In other areas, however, scenarios were very distinct, since the rainfall was irregular and at different volumes among the regions. In the southwest of SP, flowers blossomed in late September, while it occurred in mid-October in other areas. In this case, as flowers opened in the rainy season (September/October), there had been more cases of blossom-end rot (“estrelinha”), increasing flower abortion.
Another aspect that reinforced concerns of the citrus sector in Brazil is the below-average amount of rainfall in many regions during the flower-settlement (especially in November), and temperatures were high in some moments. Thus, fruitlets dropped. From mid-December until now, rains have been more frequent, which brings relief, but are not capable to revert the scenario of losses.
In general, players expected that the 2023/24 season would be higher than the current; however, after many difficulties, opinions have started to change. The USDA released a report in December indicating that the Brazilian production may total 305 million 40.8-kilo boxes, 1.9% less compared to the current crop. It is important to mention that a more accurate forecast for 2023/24 will be possible only in mid-February.
Therefore, the scenario of low inventories at the end of 2022/23 may not be reverted in the next season. CitrusBR says that the ending stocks by June/23 may total only 140 thousand tons, lower than the strategic level, of 250 thousand tons.
Cepea calculations indicate that, in order for the volume in stocks by the end of 2023/24 (in June/24) returns to the strategic level of 250 thousand tons, the orange processing in 2023/24 may be at roughly 300 million 40.8-kilo boxes, which is equivalent to a production in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro at 340 million boxes, higher than what the USDA forecast.
TAHITI LIME – The first two months of 2023 may register high supply in São Paulo state, due to the peak period, which can press down quotations. On the other hand, as the industry may intensify processing activities and exports tend to increase in this period, the volume available is expected to reduce in the domestic market.
The ending stocks of orange juice ended the 2021/22 season at low levels (on June 30th, 2022), according to data released this week by CitrusBR. And even if orange production increases in the 2022/23 season, the volume of juice stocked by the end of the crop is not expected to be high.
According to CitrusBR, the ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent totaled 143.1 thousand tons at the end of the 2021/22 season, almost 55 % lower than that in the previous crop and below the strategic level (250 thousand tons).
CitrusBR estimates juice stocks to total 140 thousand tons by the end of the 2022/23 crop, in June 2023. Despite the increase in the number of oranges allocated to the production of juice, industrial yield is expected to be lower than that last season – it is important to consider that, in the 2021/22 crop, rainfall was not that frequent, which favoured yield.
According to CitrusBR, the Brazilian exports of orange juice to the United States may increase, due to the low orange production in Florida, which is keeping low the American stocks of juice.
This scenario confirms the high industrial demand for oranges in the current season (2022/23). However, next season, the demand from juice processors is expected to continue high – to replenish stocks, at least partially. Thus, juice prices are on the rise abroad.
Cepea estimates that, for the volume stocked by the end of the 2023/24 season (in June 2024) to return to the strategic level of 250 thousand tons, orange processing during that season needs to be around 300 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms, which accounts for an output of 340 million boxes in São Paulo State + the Triângulo Mineiro. This calculation considers stable juice sales, of a million tons, and the average yield of the five previous crops.
However, since the beginning of Fundecitrus surveys, in 2015/16, orange production has surpassed 340 million boxes in only two seasons: 2017/18 and 2019/20. Since then, the area with orange groves has shrunk. On the other hand, groves were renewed in that period, which tends to favour productivity and production.
Amid low rainfall in São Paulo State since the end of the Summer (in late March), farmers have been concerned about the effects of the current lack of moisture on orange trees. According to Inmet (Brazilian Institute of Meteorology), it has not rained in SP for 50 days, the longest drought since 2012. To make things worse, last month was the hottest July in SP in all times.
For the oranges still on tree (from the 2022/23 season), although major damages have not been reported, the drought is concerning. In dry-land groves, some fruits wilted, reducing both quality and size for the in natura market, making them only suitable to the industry. Besides, some oranges and leaves fell off due to high water stress.
Also, the effects of greening on oranges have increased this year in many Brazilian areas. It is important to consider that, according to Fundecitrus, last year, greening affected 22.37 % of the orange trees in SP, the highest average.
On the other hand, the lack of rains is necessary to cause groves some water stress, which is crucial for blooming. According to Cepea collaborators, in northern SP, where groves are irrigated, many farmers began irrigating the plants in mid-June, and trees are now beginning to bloom. In these areas, conditions have been favourable so far. In dry-land groves, blooming is expected to occur as soon as it rains in the citrus belt.
BRAZILIAN MARKET IN JULY – The demand for citrus increased in Brazil in July, favoured by the atypical warm weather during the month. On the other hand, although the orange harvesting was in full swing in SP last month, industries’ purchases were high, which pushed up quotations.
The 2022/23 harvesting of early fruits is advancing in São Paulo state. In this scenario, industrial processing activities are following the harvesting pace and requiring more fruits.
According to players from the industry, the ratio of early fruits has improved and practically all fruits have been allowed for delivery, both in the spot market or for contracts. The industrial yield, however, is still low, which is common at the beginning of the crop.
Crushing activities are now taking place in eight processors in São Paulo: Araraquara, Araras, Bebedouro, Catanduva, Colina, Conchal and two in Matão. The companies have already been receiving some volumes of pera orange, but the majority is early fruits – the pera orange availability tends to increase from mid-September onwards.
In the spot market, values are ranging from 27.00 and 28.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, harvested and delivered at the processor. As for contracts, quotations may hit 31.00 BRL per box in big companies. In small processing companies, values are at 35.00 BRL/box.
As observed for other agricultural products, the production costs of citrus farming have increased sharply in Brazil, due to higher inputs prices, majorly fertilisers. This scenario is concerning farmers in Brazil, considering that citrus production was low in the two previous seasons, which resulted in higher costs per unit.
Even if productivity and production increase in the 2022/23 season – compared to that in 2020/21 and 2021/22, because of the slightly more favourable weather –, higher inputs prices are expected to limit a possible reduction in the production cost per unit. Thus, profit margins may be lower than the expected, despite orange valuations in 2022/23 – so far, the ceiling orange price is at BRL 32.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered to processing plant (considering only large-sized processors).
Tight profitability may continue to constrain investments in both crops’ renewal and replating, mainly because shorter-cycle crops, such as soybean crops, are currently more attractive and bring better opportunities to farmers.
Last year, after five consecutive years of stability, the area allocated to citrus farming shrank in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro (citrus belt), according to data from Fundecitrus, which may happen again in 2022.
Lower profit margins may also hamper adequate crop management in the citrus belt. Lower investments in crops’ renewal and replanting added to difficulties related to crop management may reduce orange production even more in the mid-term. Low supply may underpin prices, since the stocks of orange juice at the processing plants in SP are not high, and production needs to be higher for inventories to be replenished.
Citrus market
The domestic demand for oranges has not been high enough to raise prices. According to Cepea collaborators, many purchasers are trying to pay lower prices, putting farmers off selling oranges in the domestic market.
Brazilian citrus farmers claim that, if prices drop lower than the current levels, sales in the in natura market will become unviable. Currently, juice processors are bidding prices up to BRL 32/box (harvested and delivered). Although the values paid by processors include the harvesting and freight, the quality standard required by this segment and the risks of default are lower, making sales to the industry more attractive.
In this scenario, if the demand from processors continues high and prices, attractive, sales to the in natura market are expected to decrease, at least during the Winter and the beginning of Spring, when supply increases, while demand decreases. Also, most oranges have not reached the ideal maturation stage yet, allowing farmers to wait and sell the oranges when the processing activities in the 2022/23 season begin, forecast to late May/early June.
The harvesting of early oranges is expected to advance in May, which may raise supply and press down quotations. In general, availability has been growing since mid-April, weakening prices.
In April (until April 28th), the average price for pear oranges closed at BRL 42.10 per 40.8-kilo box (on tree), a slight 4.96 % down from that in March (BRL 43.00/box). Before that, values had increased for two months.
On the other hand, for early oranges, quotations were firm in April – the average price for rubi oranges closed at BRL 35.71/box, 3.63 % higher than that in March. As the values for this group of oranges have been lower than that for pear oranges, the competitiveness of early oranges has increased.
For the coming weeks, if prices drop, sales tend to increase, since demand may be higher. However, if values decrease too steeply, farmers may reduce the harvesting, since the oranges on tree have not reached the ideal maturation stage yet. Thus, citrus farmers may prefer to wait for the beginning of activities at processing plants. The industry’s purchase proposals for the oranges from the 2022/23 season have been up to BRL 32.00/box (harvested and delivered).
Although two plants of the large-sized processors were processing oranges in late April, activities were slow because of low supply. By the end of last month, only one plant was purchasing early oranges (as long as ratio is near or higher than 14).
The prices for Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent rose high at ICE Futures in the first fortnight of April, reflecting the current low world supply, majorly in Brazil and in Florida (USA). Between April 1st and 13, the May/22 contract for orange juice increased by 20 %, and in 2022, by more than 30 %, closing at USD 2,650/ton on April 13.
Indeed, orange production (and juice production) in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo State and the Triângulo Mineiro) decreased in the 2021/22 crop, which is practically over. According to a report released by Fundecitrus in the first half of April, the Brazilian citrus belt is expected to harvest 262.97 million boxes (40.8-kilograms) of oranges, 10.6 % down from the first estimates (May/21) and 2.2 % lower than that in the previous season.
This context will influence the Brazilian supply of orange juice, since the citrus belt is the major orange-producing region in Brazil. In February, Citrus BR estimated that, by the end of the season (in June 2022), the national stocks of orange juice (forecast at 127 thousand tons) will not be enough to ensure the world supply until the new crop (2022/23) steps up.
The same scenario is observed in Florida, where production estimates were revised down by the USDA by 19 % compared to the expected in Oct/21, to 38.2 million boxes, 28 % lower than that last season.
Lower production in the current and in previous seasons is reflecting on local stocks. According to the Florida Department of Citrus, from the beginning of the 2021/22 crop, in Oct/21, to March 26, 2022, the stocks of FCOJ were 31 % lower than that in the same period of the previous season. For not-from-concentrate orange juice, stocks were 25 % lower.
In this context, although the United States did not increase imports of concentrated orange juice – which decreased by 4.6 % between Oct/21 and Jan/22, according to the Florida Department of Citrus –, they increased purchases of not-from-concentrate orange juice. Brazil supplied 85 % of all the not-from-concentrate orange juice and 71 % of the FCOJ imported by the USA.
These estimates for Brazil and the USA explain the recent valuations of orange juice at ICE Futures. In both countries, supply is not expected to recover in the coming season (2022/23).
In the Brazilian citrus belt, although orange production may increase slightly, a higher harvest would not be enough to raise stocks and ensure world supply, since the current volume stocked is very low. In Florida, with the high incidence of greening on orchards (which has been lowering the average productivity of orange trees) and the smaller area with orange orchards in the state in the last years, production is not expected to return to the levels observed in previous decades.
The weather has been favouring the development of the 2022/23 orange crop. In general, frequent rainfall (since mid-October 2021) is helping the oranges to grow bigger and, thus, agents expect productivity to recover from the two previous seasons, when the volume harvested was low.
According to Cepea collaborators, the general scenario has been more favourable this year. Although the first blooming was late in some orchards (in mid-September in irrigated orchards and in October in dry land, after the return or rains), the number of flowers was considered positive, complemented by other blooming in the following months. Besides, the fruits set rate was high, favoured by rains followed by sunny days most of the time.
It is important to highlight that the damages caused by the long drought in the last two years (and frosts in some areas last Winter) were not completely offset, however, orange trees are currently more vigorous, leading agents to believe that productivity will be higher this season. Still, agents have distinct estimates about the harvest: some, who are more pessimistic, expect 300 million boxes to be harvested, while others, more optimistic, believe it will hit 350 million boxes. However, most of them expect something between 300 and 350 million boxes.
The only available estimates were released by the USDA in December, indicating the crop in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro to total 305 million boxes (15.5 % higher than that in 2021/22). Agents are waiting for Fundecitrus’s estimates, to be released in May.
It is worth to mention that, despite the production increase, orange supply is expected to be tight in the 2022/23 season, due to the high demand from processors to replenish juice stocks – which are forecast at 127 thousand tons by the end of the 2021/22 season, in June 2022, according to estimates from CitrusBR. Still according to CitrusBR, this volume will not be enough to meet the world demand until the new season steps up.
In that scenario, even if the volume produced is near the expected by the more optimistic, there should not be an orange surplus, which justifies the high prices bid by processors for 2022/23.
This scenario may also limit supply in the in natura market along the season, however, this would not ensure higher prices, since the purchase power of many consumers in Brazil is weak because of the current high inflation and the national economic scenario.
Tahiti lime prices faded in São Paulo State in the first fortnight of March. According to Cepea collaborators, the current hot weather in Brazil has been favoring consumption, however, supply is high, due to the peak of harvest. Thus, quotations were pressed down.
However, many farmers reported that supply is beginning to decrease. The harvesting, which has been in full swing since mid-January, is expected to slow down until the end of March.
During the peak of harvest in 2022 (January – March), the quotations for tahiti lime have been lower than that in the same period of 2021. From the beginning of the year until March 10th, the average price for this variety closed at BRL 21.92/box, harvested, 1.8 % down from that in the first quarter of 2021, in nominal terms. Only in January/22 prices were higher than that in Jan/21.
The lower volume to be harvested in the coming weeks is expected to limit processing. By the end of the first fortnight, four plants were operating in SP, paying from BRL 18 to BRL 20.00 per 27-kilo box, harvested and delivered to processors.
EXPORTS – Brazilian exports of lemon and lime have been high this year. According to Secex, in the first two months of 2022, Brazil shipped to all destinations 22 thousand tons of lemons and limes, 17.1 % up from that in the same period last year, only lower than that in the first bimester of 2020. Revenue total USD 17.3 million, 11.9 % up in the same comparison. Despite higher volume and revenue, the average price (in dollar) paid for the fruit is lower than that from the same period of 2021.
In February, exports performance was a record for the month, favored by high supply in SP and higher quality of the fruits (because of recent rainfall). According to Secex, Brazil shipped 11.8 thousand tons of lemon and lime in February, 13.4 % up from that in Feb/21. Revenue totaled USD 9.2 million, 9.5 % up, in the same comparison.
Orange prices increased in the Brazilian in natura market in the first fortnight of February. According to Cepea collaborators, frequent rains in the citrus belt (São Paulo State) favoured the quality (majorly the size) of oranges, making them suitable for sale in the in natura segment and allowing farmers to raise asking prices. Besides, rainfall also hampered the harvesting, limiting supply. In that scenario, values remained firm.
Usually, orange availability is not high in February – a month that may even be considered offseason –, however, as the 2021/22 season is late, supply is currently higher. Still, there is not an orange surplus in the domestic market, since processing at industries has been faster than usual this month.
So far, the number of early varieties to be harvested is not high – activities are expected to step up only from March onwards. However, supply may be constrained by the low flower set in the first blooming. Thus, the oranges currently available in the in natura market are mostly late varieties and pear oranges out of the ideal period.
TAHITI LIME – The production of tahiti lime is also being favoured by rains, however, farmers reported difficulties to harvest the fruits, which underpinned prices in the first fortnight of February, although it is currently the peak of harvest for tahiti lime in Brazil.
Despite the recent valuations for oranges and tahiti lime, Cepea collaborators have reported that the current economic scenario in Brazil is still constraining higher price rises. With high unemployment and inflation rates and lower income, the purchase power of many consumers is weak.
ESTIMATES – Although rains have favoured the quality of part of the fruits in orchards, they have not been enough to reverse all the damages caused by the drought to the oranges from the 2021/22 season.
According to data from Fundecitrus released on Feb. 10, the orange output (São Paulo + Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2021/22 season is still estimated at 264.14 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms, the same as that estimated in December, but 10 % below that forecast at the beginning of the season.
According to Somar/Climatempo (weather forecast agency), rainfall in SP between May/21 and Jan/22 was 25 % below the average for the period. In the Triângulo Mineiro, rains were 5 % higher than the average. Thus, orange growth was hampered, and the average fruit weight decreased. However, it is important to consider that the oranges harvested in February and in March 2022 are expected to be slightly larger, since they have been favoured by recent rains.
The volume harvested is still enough to replenish ending stocks at the processing plants in SP. According to CitrusBR, by the end of the 2021/22 season (in June 2022), the volume of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (Equivalent) stocked is expected to total 170 – 190 thousand tons, lower than the strategic level (250 thousand tons). It is important to consider that new estimates are supposed to be released until the end of February.
In this scenario, the harvest in 2022/23 needs to be large enough to raise stocks at least to the strategic level and thus prevent a world shortage of orange juice. Cepea calculations show that the orange output next season needs to total, at least, 330 million boxes in order to raise juice stocks to 250 thousand tons.
PROGRESS OF THE 2021/22 HARVESTING – According to Fundecitrus’ report, 82 % of the orange orchards had been harvested by mid-January/22, similar to that in the same period last season (81 %).
In 2021, orange prices were high in São Paulo State (SP) and in the Triângulo Mineiro. In general, the industry in SP kept the demand high for fruits, and the low production limited the supply throughout the year. Although the remuneration (in BRL per box) had been higher, the profitability for many citrus growers was restricted, given that the limited productivity increased the cost of production per unit even more.
Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) indicated, in its estimate released in December/21, that the production in the citrus belt may reduce 1.7 % compared to 2020/21, totaling 264.14 million 40.8-boxes. Even with the positive biennial cycle in the 2021/22 season and the higher fruit load, oranges have presented a smaller size, which explains the lower production.
From May to August 2021, rainfall accounted for only 30 % of the regular volume for the period, according to data from Somar Meteorologia/Climatempo. Fundecitrus says that this scenario affected even irrigated orange groves (which correspond to 30 % of the citrus belt), due to the limited water supply in tanks. In some areas, frosts in July worsened the situation. Besides the small-sized oranges, the premature fruit drop was one of the worst in history.
Due to the low supply of fruits, orange juice processors boosted prices compared to the 2020/21 season. In the partial of the crop (from July to December/21), the average price in the spot market was 27.50 BRL/40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at the industry, for a nominal increase of 22.5 % in relation to the same period last year.
EXPORTS – As expected, orange juice (volume equivalent to concentrate juice) shipments finished the 2020/21 season with a 7 % decrease in relation to the previous (2019/20). From July/20 to June/21, shipments to all destinations totaled 1.03 million tons, according to data from Secex. The revenue, in turn, amounted 1.54 billion USD, 15 % down compared to the season before.
IN NATURA MARKET – Orange prices hit nominal records in most part of 2021. Increases are attributed to the limited supply in the 2021/22 crop, because of the low volume of rainfall and high temperatures in the second semester of 2020 and the low humidity in 2021. From the second semester of 2021 onwards, the low quality of fruits (due to a long period of dry weather and frosts in July) reinforced the upward trend. In the partial of the crop (from July to December/21), the average price for pear oranges (in natura) is at BRL 39.52/40.8-kilo box, on tree, 20 % up from the average in the same period in 2020, in nominal terms.
TAHITI – The price trend was atypical in 2021. Values were low in the first semester and in some periods of the second part of the year, and peak prices were less intense. From January to December, the average price for tahiti lime was at BRL 25.19/27-kilo box, harvested, 31.3 % lower compared to that in 2020.
The current number of flowers in the orange orchards in São Paulo – which will give origin to the fruits from the 2022/23 season – is considered satisfactory in most citrus-producing regions within the state. In general, while in irrigated orchards blooming was observed from September onwards, in non-irrigated orchards, flowers were only observed in October, after the late arrival of rainfall.
Agents have been concerned about the possible effects of the lack of rains this year on the vigor of orange trees, since low moisture may hamper fruit set, increasing the rate of fruitlet fall in irrigated orchards and, largely, in the orchards in dryland.
According to forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 90 % chance of La Niña forming in Brazil until the end of 2021. If this is confirmed, rainfall in the coming months may be lower than usual in the southeastern region of the country. However, La Niña is forecast to be weak in Brazil.
This scenario may have a negative influence on the output from the 2022/23 season, since the development stage of plants in the coming months demands good amounts of water. With estimates for low ending stocks of orange juice in the 2021/22 season, the output from 2022/23 needs to be high in order to ensure comfortable inventories for world supply.
Cepea calculations show that, for ending stocks in the 2022/23 season (June 2023) to return to the strategic level of 250 thousand tons, the output next season needs to surpass 330 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each. In this context, the average productivity would have to be around a thousand boxes per hectare, which has only been observed in seasons favored by the weather.
The price for pear oranges has been on the rise in Brazil since the beginning of the season, in June, influenced by the low supply of oranges in the market. In the second fortnight of October, pear orange prices surpassed BRL 50.00/40.8-kilo box, on tree, setting a new nominal record in the series of Cepea. The monthly average in October (in São Paulo State) closed at BRL 49.88/box, on tree, 10.1 % up from that in September/21 and 28.3 % above that in October/20, in nominal terms.
Agents in the Brazilian citrus sector did not expect supply in the 2021/22 season to be high, based on the effects of the weather on blooming and flower set. However, along the season, weather issues increased, with rainfall below the ideal and frosts in some locations at the end of July.
Although rains were more frequent in October, agents reported that the oranges were mostly small-sized, which kept the prices for larger-sized fruits on the rise – since this standard is required in the in natura segment. From November onwards, quality may increase, and a higher number of late oranges is expected to be available in the market. On the other hand, high purchases from the industry are also expected to control supply in the in natura market.
TAHITI LIME – In the Brazilian market of tahiti lime, the return of rains favored production and raised supply. Besides, the quality of the fruits continued low, and the exports pace was slow in October. Thus, prices for this variety dropped in the orchards in SP, averaging BRL 23.15/27-kilo box, harvested, 21.8 % down from that in September.
ORCHARDS – The rains that hit São Paulo State in October favored blooming in orange orchards, largely in dryland or those that had not bloomed yet. According to citrus farmers, the scenario varied among regions, according to the volume of rain and the production system (irrigated or dryland), but, in general, all agents agree that blooming was satisfactory.
As in previous seasons, this year’s flowering has been irregular and heterogeneous. While in some regions, orchards bloomed earlier (in September), in others, flowering was observed in October. However, the early flowers were compromised by the hot and dry weather in many areas, which led some of the fruitlets to fall, even in irrigated orchards.
Citrus farmers believe this will be another season of multiple blooming, which would hamper both the harvesting and management of trees because of the different development stages of flowers – as it happened in most Brazilian regions in the last years.
Although flowering brought some relief to citrus farmers in all regions, it is important to consider that plants are still debilitated, due to the long drought, which may hamper fruit fixing. Thus, the success of the recent blooming will depend on the weather from now onwards (high moisture interleaved with sunny periods) and preventive care for blossom-end rot. According to Cptec/Inpe (weather forecast agency), rains may be lower than the average in November and in December, which may be a reflex of the La Niña phenomenon, and hamper flower set.
