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Due to the presence of greening (Huanglongbing) in São Paulo and to the recent imbalance between supply and demand for oranges, both producers and processors have been looking for options to increase the planted area in regions outside the citrus belt, without the phytosanitary risks in SP. There have been reports of new plantings in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais (out of Triângulo Mineiro) and Goiás, areas that are not typical citrus producers.

Investments are indeed not recommended depending on the region of São Paulo state, although major processing units are located there. Many areas have high incidence of greening, which hinders new plantings. According to data from Fundecitrus, 38 % of the trees in the citrus belt had symptoms of the disease in 2023, the sixth year in a row of greening increase. It is worth noting that new plants tend to be more vulnerable to the disease, increasing costs with prevention and chances of infection.

Therefore, plantings outside SP are an option. The land availability is higher, reducing costs, and there is the absence of greening and other diseases. Moreover, the industrial productivity can be higher than in SP, due to the warmer weather, which is positive for processing companies.

On the other hand, the fact that the areas are unknown for the citrus activity concerns players, since this scenario would demand adjustments in management and irrigation, which cannot be necessarily the same as those verified in SP.

Although these regions are warmer than SP (which can favor the productivity), it tends to affect the development of the trees. Additionally, costs with freight can be higher because of logistical issues.

It is worth noting that these investments in other regions are new and, therefore, they may not affect the orange supply in the short-term – it can be verified in roughly three years, when plants start producing.

Market

The supply of citrus fruits in the in natura market in São Paulo may be low in July. As for oranges, the lower availability has been verified since the middle of last year and it is also attributed to the high demand from the industry – it is worth noting that juice stocks at processing companies may finish the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) at low levels.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that even producers who typically sell to the in natura market are focusing on sending the product to the industry this season, since prices are more attractive and there are some advantages compared to the in natura market.

The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 378 million 90-pound boxes (MBx) – standard reference, equivalent to 15.42 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of 7.3 percent compared to previous Post estimate (408 million boxes or 16.5 MMT), primarily due to poor weather conditions that culminated in a more severe drought, as well as impacts from greening. Meanwhile, Post revised the orange weight forecast to 165 grams/5.82 ounces in MY 2023/24, 4.2 percent heavier than Post previous estimate of 158 grams due to the lower production and consequent more room for the fruits to grow. Post revised the total forecast related to the Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent production for MY 2023/24 at 1.06 MMT, a decrease of 8.62 percent vis-à-vis the Post estimate for MY 2022/23 (1.16 MMT), due to downward expected availability of fruit for processing provoked by drought, extremely high temperatures and increase of greening incidence

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov

After two months of price drops, orange values are expected to increase again in the in natura market in June. Processing activities are likely to be intensified, since more companies have started to operate, limiting the supply of fruits in the in natura market. Players say that, although the demand is usually lower in this period, since the weather is colder, the supply in the in natura market is expected to be smaller than the demand.

Orange prices already increased in the second fortnight of May, after the release of estimates of a lower output by Fundecitrus. Thus, many producers stopped harvesting fruits for the in natura market, preferring to meet the demand from the industry.

In May, the average for the pear orange was BRL 80.22 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, downing 11.21 % in relation to April/24.

Although prices dropped from April to May, they are still at high levels. In addition to the forecast of a small crop, low stocks of orange juice have been boosting the industrial demand for fruits.

Tahiti lime

The supply is expected to continue limited in June, due to the below-average volume of rainfall. Colder temperatures have concerned producers, since this scenario may result in characteristics that purchasers disapprove, especially in the international market. In May, the price average was at BRL 32.62 per 27-kilo box, harvested, 18.96% up compared to April.

Ponkan tangerine

Prices may move up in June, especially from the second fortnight on, when the supply in São Paulo tends to decrease. Moreover, the fruit can be a good alternative for orange and other fruits, which are presenting higher quotations. On the other hand, the demand is likely to decrease due to the cold weather, limiting more significant price rises.

The dry and warm weather in São Paulo concerned citrus growers in early May. They say that fruits were falling from the trees, a scenario that is reinforced in areas with high incidence of HLB (Huanglongbing, or greening).

Growers collected fruits that fell, allocating them to crushing activities, although this process is more expensive than the regular harvest. Still, as prices at factories are high, this fact ends up being advantageous for both citrus growers and the industry, which needs to absorb as more fruits as possible. It is worth noting that higher temperatures and below-average rains since the middle of the second semester last year may result in a lower volume to harvest in 2024/25.

The heat wave and the lack of rains also affect the quality of oranges, reducing its attractiveness in the market.

As for the tahiti lime, the dry weather started to affect the development and the quality of the peel. Some producers were concerned and started harvesting, aiming to collect fruits that are prematurely falling to send them immediately to the industry.

The orange processing of the 2024/25 season may be intensified in May. Three of the major processors and other two small companies (tool) have been operating at the moment. At least three more units are expected to start activities still in early May.

In the same period of 2023, only three units were operating, and a fourth company started crushing in the second week of the month. This scenario indicates a higher intensity of processing activities this year. Although current volumes are not high yet, players from the industry say that some companies have started operating in order to avoid fruit losses in a year of low supply.

Prices at companies remain firm, reaching BRL 70.00 per box for fruits of the new season. In cases of higher volumes, values can be even higher.

Due to the increase of industrial activities, the downward trend of orange prices in the in natura market, verified in April, is likely to slow down, since producers will have the industry as an option to sell the product. In April, the average for the in natura pear orange, of BRL 91.28 per 40.8-kilo box, in tree, was 3 % lower than in March.

The demand for oranges, in turn, is expected to decrease in May, because of the supply of ponkan tangerine. Moreover, possible milder temperatures in the Brazilian autumn tend to reduce the consumption.

Tahiti lime

The rainfall favoured the development of the tahiti lime in São Paulo state, increasing the supply.

Total orange production for the 2023-2024 crop season ended at 307.22 million boxes1

The 2023-2024 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors from FEA- RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – concluded with 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows:

  • 58.09 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
  • 18.51 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada early-season varieties;
  • 97.62 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
  • 105.20 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
  • 27.80 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.

Of the total, about 27.82 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.

The season´s production was 2.22% lower in comparison to the previous crop, which reached 314.21 million boxes and was 0.69% below the initial forecast made in May 2023 …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil in the partial of the 2023/24 season (from July/23 to March/24) was below that registered in the same period of the previous crop. According to players from the industry, the low availability of the commodity in the Brazilian market may be limiting shipments. As for prices of the juice sold to the international market, they moved up.

The 2023/24 season in Brazil is expected to finish (in June/24) with reduced orange juice stocks at the industry. As a result, some players are unwilling to export large amounts in order to avoid having zero stocks by the end of 2023/24.

According to data from Comex Stat, Brazil exported 812.2 thousand tons of orange juice in the partial of 2023/24, for a decrease of 7.7 % compared to the same period last season. The revenue totaled USD 2.08 billion, moving up 23 % this season in relation to the previous and close to the total registered in the crop before (USD 2.14 billion up to June/23).

OJ shipments to the European Union amounted 419.9 thousand tons from July/23 to March/24, downing 7.7 % against the same period of 2022/23. The income, in turn, rose 26 %, at USD 1.1 billion. To the US, exports dropped 4.4 % in relation to that in 2022/23, at 265.7 thousand tons. The income verified between July/23 and March/24 was USD 667.1 million, 18 % up against the same period last season.

Market in Brazil

The market of the tahiti lime in São Paulo closed March with firm prices. Players surveyed by Cepea say that this is related to the low supply, since rains affected the harvest. As a result, the monthly price average was BRL 31.17 per 27-kilo box, harvested, 55 % up in relation to February.

As for the orange, prices also closed March at higher levels. The supply was low (due to the offseason period and to the good demand from the industry) and the demand in the in natura market was firm, because of high temperatures. Therefore, the price average was BRL 93.56 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, upping 7 % in relation to February.

Harvesting activities for ponkan tangerine have started in March in São Paulo state, but the volumes available are still limited. According to players surveyed by Cepea, the supply is expected to increase significantly from April onwards, when more fruits hit the ideal ripening stage.

First tangerines harvested come from irrigated orange groves, where the development is more advanced, such as in the north of São Paulo state and Minas Gerais.

The season is expected to continue up to mid-August, and the volume harvested may be similar to that registered in the last crop, according to agents surveyed by Cepea. As for the quality, it has been considered satisfactory, in spite of some cases of Alternaria citri, which have been controlled successfully.

The current low supply of ponkan tangerine has been keeping quotations attractive to producers. From March 25-28, the price average was at BRL 95.53 per 27-kilo box, on tree, 36.4 % up compared to the same period in 2023, in nominal terms.

The holidays of Good Friday and Easter, the end-of-the-month period and lower temperatures in late March have limited the demand for oranges. However, prices continue to move up due to the restricted supply. As for the tahiti lime, despite the low consumption, rains and the slow pace of the harvest limited the supply, boosting quotations.

Brazilian orange juice processors finished 2023 with low stocks. A report released by CitrusBR in March indicates that the volume was 463.94 thousand tons (equivalent to concentrate juice) on December 31, 2023, being 6.7 % higher than that on the same day last year, but the second lowest in history (the series has started in 2011).

Considering that the industry is practically in the offseason period, and, therefore, they have been using stocks to supply the international market, the stocked volume is likely to decrease month after month. This scenario brings concerns about the global supply, since Brazil is the biggest world exporter, and, although there are no forecasts for the next crop (2024/25) yet, the orange production may not increase compared to the current season.

CitrusBR has not projected the ending stocks for the orange juice industry this season. However, data from Cepea indicate that stocks may finish the season higher than in the previous, especially because of the decrease in exports.

Taking 2023/24 initial stocks, of 84.75 thousand tons (CitrusBR), processing of 267 million boxes (discounting the 40 million boxes of the in natura market of the total volume projected by Fundecitrus), the same juice yield of the previous crop and the 6 % decrease of exports (from July/23 to February/24), the amount in stocks by the end of the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) would be only 94.5 thousand tons, 11 % more than in the same period last year.

In spite of the projection of an increase compared to the last season, it is worth noting that 2022/23 ending stocks were the lowest in recent history.

Production

The rainfall in orange producing areas in São Paulo state has been favoring the 2024/25 season. Players surveyed by Cepea say that the good humidity has been positive for the fruits, allowing to anticipate the harvest of early varieties, which have started to be offered in the in natura market in February and may be intensified in March.

Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) announced the exclusive launch in the French market of its new fresh fruit juice brand, Montebelo Brasil, in collaboration with Laiterie de Saint-Denis-de-l’Hôtel (LSDH) for commercialisation, bottling and distribution. This initiative aims to establish Montebelo Brasil as a market reference among fresh (or chilled) fruit juices in France, while ensuring traceability of oranges, from Brazilian groves to selected retail shelves.

Inspired by its eponymous Brazilian plantation, certified by the Rainforest Alliance, the development of the Montebelo Brasil brandis part of LDC’s strategic vision to extend its reach further downstream in the value chain, while offering distribution solutions to its customers and partners. It also reflects LDC’s focus to further diversify its Juice Platform portfolio with sustainable, traceable and high-quality products directly to end consumers.

“Our ambition for this project is twofold: to offer a 100 % natural product while ensuring traceability of the oranges, thereby establishing a connection between LDC as citrus producer in Brazil and the end consumer. Our commitment also addresses the demands of increasingly discerning consumers who are concerned about the origin and journey of the products they consume,” said Aurélien Grisval, Head of Downstream Market for Juice, LDC.

The Montebelo Brasil line includes eight fresh fruit juices:

  • Two pure orange juices (with and without pulp);
  • Two lemonades (yellow lemon, and a blend of yellow and green lemon); and
  • The following product range developed in collaboration with renowned Brazilian chef Tabata Mey: Pure mango, pineapple and lime juice; Coconut water, mango, pineapple, lime pure juice; Orange, maracuja, lime nectar ; and a lime maté beverage.

“We are proud to launch this new brand, which embodies our expertise as a global agricultural merchant dedicated to serving our customers, and our commitments as a responsible citrus grower in Brazil for over 35 years,” said Georges-Edouard Duriez, Head of Development and Strategy for Juice, LDC.

France was a natural choice for the brand launch, with its dynamic retail juice market that, per capita consumption, ranks second globally, with approximately 1.1 billion liters consumed annually, and for the opportunities offered by the chilled juice category in terms of value.

“Beyond the clear commercial opportunities, this launch in France, birthplace of the Group and homeland of its founder, Léopold Louis-Dreyfus, has profound significance for LDC. Making this launch a success will be a wonderful way to honor this legacy,” concluded Georges-Edouard Duriez.

Montebelo Brasil fruit juices are already available throughout France at Monoprix stores and Carrefour hyper and supermarkets in 1-liter and 250-milliliter bottles, and will soon be available at over 2,000 other outlets.

After the return of rains in São Paulo, orange producers surveyed by Cepea said that flowers have been blossoming since early February in some areas, and they may refer to out-of-season fruits.

In general, players say that the volume of fruits originated from these flowers may not be high, which can be insufficient to compensate the fruitlet abortion verified in the last quarter of 2023. These new flowers bring a positive expectation, since the remuneration of oranges in the next season is expected to be good.

The orange supply was very limited in the in natura market in São Paulo in mid-February, since it is considered the offseason period. Therefore, the market has been supplied mainly by out-of-the-season pear oranges and remaining volumes of late fruits. However, some producers were already harvesting early varieties (especially hamlin and westin), in order to increase the supply.

Fundecitrus has released the third update on the 2023/24 orange crop in the citrus belt in São Paulo and Triângulo/Sudoeste Mineiro, keeping the projection of 307.22 million 40.8-kilo boxes, stable compared to the previous report, but downing 0.7 % in relation to the initial forecast and 2.2 % against the 2022/23 season.

Mupy, a reference brand for soy drinks with fruit juice, and SIG, a leading solutions provider of packaging for better, recently signed a partnership for SIG to provide carton packs and filling services to Mupy via a copacker.

Mupy is projecting growth for the coming years and packaging solutions from SIG will play an integral part in achieving their target of doubling turnover by 2025. Mupy, under the new management of Alexandre Moreno, had revenues of 115 million reais and produced 11.7 million liters of soy drinks with fruit juice in 2023.

In order to achieve future growth with soy and juice beverages, Mupy relies on the high speed and flexible filling machines from SIG. The efficiency rate in the production process is very high, with a waste rate of just 0.5 %. In addition, SIG’s filling machines provide maximum flexibility and make it possible to fill products of different categories and viscosities in different volume sizes on one and the same filling machine.

Mupy offers its soy and juice drinks in the flavours grape, pineapple, apple, passion fruit, strawberry, orange, and peach in two SIG carton formats: SIG MiniBloc 200 ml and SIG MidiBloc 1,000 ml.

The combination of juice and soy milk allows Mupy to diversify its product offerings within the juice or plant-based drinks category, catering to a health-conscious market while at the same time tapping into the growing demand for plant-based alternatives, thereby enhancing market competitiveness and meeting the evolving preferences of consumers.

The South American market for plant-based products has been growing in recent years, according to The Good Food Institute Brazil (GFI). The plant-based drinks market grew by 15 % in 2022 and is expected to have an average annual expansion of almost 12 % by 2027. According to data from Bloomberg Intelligence, Brazil is the largest consumer of plant-based foods in Latin America, followed by Mexico, Chile and Argentina.

Today’s consumers are seeking more balanced and nutritious beverage options. The beverage blend of soy and juice offers a unique fusion of fruity flavours from the juice, the creamy texture of soy milk and notable health benefits of soy. Soy is a rich source of plant-based protein, making the beverage an excellent option for individuals looking to increase protein intake. Additionally, soy contains essential amino acids, fiber, and various vitamins and minerals, contributing for instance to immune health. The combination of the nutritional advantages of soy reinforces the appeal of the juice for both health-conscious consumers and producers aiming to offer a wholesome beverage option.

Renata Kasahara, Head of Marketing America South at SIG: “With our agile and flexible filling system, customers are well positioned to respond efficiently to any trend that is shaping the market.”

Consumer demand for plant-based products has been driven by the search for a healthier diet and products that are more sustainable. “Carton packaging is among the most sustainable packaging options. 75 % of its composition is paperboard from renewable sources and at SIG, 100 % of the paperboard we source is FSCTM-certified. All of the aluminum we purchase for SIG aseptic carton packs is certified against the Aluminium Stewardship Initiative Standards and we produce all our cartons with 100 % renewable electricity. In other words, opting for SIG means responsibly sourced and sustainably produced packaging to meet the demands of Mupy’s consumers”, Renata adds.

With success in 2023, Mupy’s ambitions for the coming years are high. Alexandre Moreno, the company’s CEO, is optimistic about 2024: “In 2023 we grew by more than 22 % compared to 2022 and our plan is to double our turnover by 2025. For this, the partnership between Mupy and SIG is fundamental.”

Total forecast production of oranges1 updated to 307.22 million boxes

The second forecast for the 2023-2024 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP, and FCAV/Unesp2, is 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. Of this total estimated production, approximately 27.60 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region.

In this update, the initial projection is reduced by 2.12 million boxes, corresponding to 0.7 %. This adjustment reflects the balance considering all varieties. The oranges from early varieties, already harvested almost entirely, benefited from abundant rains at the beginning of the year, resulting in a production exceeding the estimated 2.27 million boxes

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

The new heat wave in São Paulo state has been concerning citrus growers. Temperatures are higher than those registered in the last wave, in September, and lasting longer. Thus, many producers say that the weather may affect the 2024/25 production, but it is still early to estimate possible impacts.

Up until mid-November, high temperatures have been affecting areas with fruitlets. It is worth noting that, in the heat wave observed in September, areas with fruitlets (which had registered flowers in August) were the most affected, since weather conditions have caused fruitlets to fall.

Areas with late flowers (verified in less than 30 days) may also be damaged by the hot weather – these flowers blossomed earlier and the development stage is more advanced. Moreover, citrus growers indicate possible impacts on bigger fruits, especially in trees with high incidence of greening, with less leaves and/or in bad nutrition.

In irrigated areas, in turn, damages tend to be mitigated, since flowers are in a more advanced stage. However, these areas are located in the north of São Paulo state, where temperatures are usually higher.

As for 2023/24 oranges, players surveyed by Cepea report impacts on the quality. Many fruits are withered and sunburned, and consumers usually do not want to buy fruits with these conditions – in many cases, it is necessary to accelerate the harvest in order to avoid the premature fruit fall.

TAHITI LIME – The heat wave has also been affecting the tahiti lime. As rains have not been frequent in major producing regions, the supply has not increased in a significant way, and most fruits are small.

Despite the smaller size, producers have been harvesting fruits in order to take advantage of high prices and to avoid that the hot weather affects the quality even more.

Orange production is expected to be low in Florida for one more year. According to estimates from the USDA released on October 12th, the harvest of the 2023/24 crop in FL is forecast to total 20.5 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each, of which 7.5 million of early and mid-season varieties and 13 million, valência oranges.

Although that volume is considered low, it is still 30 % higher than that from last season, when two hurricanes hit Florida – Ian, in September 2022, and Nicole, in November 2022. Although hurricane Idalia hit Florida State in late August/23, damages were not that severe.

It is important to mention that this output is not enough to meet the demand from the US, thus, the country is expected to continue to import high amounts of orange juice – and Brazil is the major supplier of the commodity to them. This scenario becomes worse when the local inventories are considered, since they are decreasing year after year.

Brazilian market

Liquidity was high in the Brazilian orange market in the first fortnight of October, despite the holiday on the 12th (Day of Our Lady of Aparecida). According to Cepea collaborators, lower supply and higher demand underpinned prices. On the other hand, for tahiti lime, values dropped, influenced by lower demand and rising supply.

The higher demand for orange juice from the United States raised the Brazilian exports of the commodity in the first two months of the 2023/24 exporting season (July and August). The average price paid for the national juice increased in that period too, influenced by low inventories and the lower output in Brazil. The higher volume exported and the valuation of the Brazilian juice abroad resulted in a significant increase in the revenue of exporters.

According to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), Brazil exported 182.9 thousand tons of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent in July and August, 4% more than the volume shipped in the same period of 2022. Revenue totaled USD 397.9 million, a staggering 20% up in the same comparison.

As for the types of juice exported, shipments of Not-From-Concentrate (NFC) orange juice increased 19 %, and revenue, 25 %; of FCOJ, the volume exported decreased 3 %, while the revenue rose 17 %. The different performances of the exports of these types of juice are linked to the higher demand from the US for NFC juice, whose volume sent to the North-American country rose a staggering 51 %.

The United States

For one more season, the US have been importing orange juice from Brazil. In the first two months of the current season (23/24), the US imported 50.5 thousand tons of FCOJ, an increase of 38 % compared to that in the same period of 2022/23. Revenue totaled USD 113.2 million, 57 % higher, in the same comparison.

Lower orange production in the US because of the 2022/23 crop of Florida – which has decreased 62 %, according to the USDA – and lower supply from Mexico, the second major supplier of orange juice to the US, led the country to raise imports from Brazil.

European Union

To the European Union, Brazil exported, in July and August, 112.6 thousand tons of orange juice, a slight 3 % up from that last season. Revenue totaled USD 241.9 million in the two first months of the season, 14 % higher, in the same comparison.

Crop Estimates

According to data released this week by Fundecitrus, the 2023/24 harvest in the citrus belt (São Paulo State + the Triângulo Mineiro) is expected at 309.34 million boxes of 40.8-kg each, stable compared to that estimated in May but 1.5 % lower than the output from last season. It is important to highlight that this volume is a lot lower than the industry’s needs to meet the demand from abroad and replenish inventories, which are currently very low.

A survey carried out through independent auditing of each of the companies associated with CitrusBR and also consolidated by external auditing revealed that the total oranges processed in the Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais Citrus Belt in the 2022/23 season was estimated at 265,292,217 boxes of oranges of 40.8 kg of which 243,967,550 boxes were processed by CitrusBR members and close to 21.3 million boxes were processed by non-members.

With the final estimated juice yield on fruit of 280.58 boxes of oranges to produce one metric ton of FCOJ equivalent in aggregate for CitrusBR members and non-members, the final estimate for total orange juice production for the 2022/23 season was of 945,529 metric tons of FCOJ equivalent …

Please download the full report: www.citrusbr.com

Britvic plc announced the acquisition of the Extra Power energy drink brand in Brazil from GlobalBev. This marks an important extension of Britvic’s Brazilian operations, consistent with Britvic’s strategy to accelerate and expand its presence across Brazil.

With 42% market share in its core regions near Brasilia, Extra Power enables access to the fast-growing, high-margin energy category. In addition, the acquisition includes a modern, efficient warehouse in Brasilia that will enhance Britvic’s supply chain efficiency across its wider portfolio and route to market into Brazil’s Centre-West region. In the year to December 2022, the acquired portfolio generated R$118m of net sales, growing 26 % on the previous year.

Simon Litherland, Chief Executive Officer commented: “I am delighted by this acquisition, which enables us to enter the higher-margin energy category in Brazil. In line with our strategy to accelerate and expand our presence in the country, we will access a growing category, extend our regional presence and deliver efficiencies in our supply chain. I am confident this acquisition will accelerate our growth trajectory in one of our key markets and generate great value for our business.”

This acquisition gives Britvic a meaningful presence in Centre-West region (Distrito Federal & Goias), providing the opportunity to scale its existing brands into a region where the business has historically under-indexed, as well as bring the acquired brand into Britvic’s existing footprint.

Britvic first entered the Brazilian market in 2015 with the acquisition of Ebba, followed by the acquisition of Bela Ischia in 2017. Since then, Britvic has developed fruit favourites such as Maguary, Dafruta and Bela Ischia into strong national presences known for innovation.

The Maguary brand heritage dates back to 1953 and, similar to the European flavour concentrates brands, is consumed by families at home. This heritage and family awareness enabled Fruit Shoot to be launched in Brazil as Maguary Fruit Shoot – following the same principle Britvic has followed in Europe, where Robinsons and Teisseire are the halo brands. More recently the local team has expanded the brand’s presence further launching a plant-based chocolate drink. New category launches in recent years have included Puro Coco and Natural Tea, both of which are ready-to-drink formats in the coconut and iced tea categories. The expansion of the portfolio continued in 2020.

Dafruta Tropical was launched in the flavour concentrates category, utilising the technical know-how of the Robinsons formulation. This new range uses real fruit, has a range of flavours and is pre-sweetened, differentiating it from the traditional concentrates in Brazil which require sugar to be added by the consumer. More recently the portfolio has expanded with the launch of Britvic Mixers and the premium Mathieu Teisseire range of concentrates for cocktails.

The growth market for fruit drinks in Brazil is perfectly complemented by Britvic’s fruit growing and fruit processing company, Be Ingredient, providing natural ingredients for Britvic and the international market.

In the financial year 2022, Britvic generated £143m of revenue in Brazil.

The acquisition of Extra Power will be funded from existing internal resources and external debt facilities.

The acquisition will require regulatory clearance but is expected to be completed around the start of Britvic’s next financial year in October 2023.

The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast at 410.6 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx) or 16.75 million metric tons (MMT), a slight decrease of 1.1 percent vis-à-vis the current season, with the resumption of the biennial crop cycle and consequently, a lower fruit load per tree. Meanwhile, orange weight at harvest is projected to increase 3.71 percent in relation previous crop, due to heavy rains throughout the citrus belt since October 2022. FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent production for MY 2022/23 is forecast at 1.125 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of nine percent from the estimated orange juice production for MY 2021/22, which was revised upward to 1.135 MMT. A larger share will supply the U.S. market to compensate Florida’s juice production, which was damaged significantly by hurricane Ian. …

Please download the full report: https://apps.fas.usda.gov

The Brazilian exports of orange juice increased in the 2022/23 season (July/22 – June/23), after fading for two consecutive seasons. According to data from Secex, Brazil exported 1.09 million tons of the product (Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice FCOJ Equivalent) in the 22/23 crop, 9 % up the volume shipped in the previous season. The revenue received from these shipments totaled USD 2.1 billion, a staggering 28 % up, in the same comparison.

Although the consumption of orange juice is not increasing in the major destinations of the Brazilian product – and despite the low national inventories –, the United States had higher import needs in the last years, due to the steep production decrease in Florida – mainly in the current season, 2022/23 –, which had been facing the effects of greening and was hit by hurricanes late last year.

According to Secex, the Brazilian exports of orange juice to the US have increased high this season, totaling 340.9 thousand tons, 69 % higher than the volume shipped in 2021/22. Revenue totaled USD 701.9 million, a staggering 93 % up, in the same comparison. As production is not expected to rise high in Florida in the short term, the US may continue with high imports needs, and Brazil is the number one supplier of orange juice in the world.

In a report released in June, Florida Citrus Department confirmed higher imports to the US: between Oct/22 and Apr/23, the country doubled the volume of FCOJ imported from Brazil compared to that in the previous season; of NFC (Not-From-Concentrate) orange juice, shipments rose 82 %.

EUROPEAN UNION – To the European Union, the number one destination of the Brazilian orange juice, exports totaled 569.6 thousand tons in the 2022/23 season, 8 % less than that shipped in the previous season. Revenue totaled USD 1.13 billion, 9 % up, in the same comparison.

After fading for some weeks, tahiti lime prices increased in the second week of June, due to lower supply. Players surveyed by Cepea reported that farmers have reduced the harvesting pace, expecting higher prices in the coming weeks.

In that scenario, between June 12 – 15, the average price closed at BRL 17.96 (harvested), 33.8 % up compared to that in the previous week. This valuation brought some relief to farmers, since quotations had been low since mid-May and that some producers were working with negative margins.

Players surveyed by Cepea expect supply to decrease even more up until the end of June, which may boost values in the domestic market and export prices. However, weak demand may limit valuations, since the weather is cold, which usually discourages consumption. The weather has also been limiting the quality of tahiti lime.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET – The international demand for lemons and limes from Brazil has been increasing. May is not a month of significant shipments, but, this year, the performance was above-average. Secex indicates that Brazil exported almost 23.1 thousand tons in May, 42 % more than the volume shipped in April and 78 % up from that in May last year.

The orange output in the citrus belt in southeastern Brazil (São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2023/24 season is estimated at 309.34 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, according to data from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released on May 10th. This volume is 1.5 % lower than that harvested last season.

According to Fundecitrus, the major reasons for the lower harvest are rains above the historical average (although they have favoured both the vigor of trees and fruits growth, rains raised flower rotten), the negative biennial cycle (except for northern SP, where productivity was lower last season), lower blooming for some late varieties (whose harvesting was delayed and/or production was high in 2022/23) and the higher incidence of greening, which is expected to raise the rate of fruit fall. On the other hand, high moisture may favour fruits weight, which may be the highest since 2017/18.

As for productivity, the average forecast for the citrus belt is at 918 boxes per hectare, a slight 0.6 % up from that in the 2022/23 season.

Although the harvest expected in the citrus belt is within the average of the last 10 years, the needs of juice processors in SP for oranges is very high. Inventories are low, and the number of oranges to be available is not expected to be enough for stocks to recover.

Indeed, according to a report from CitrusBR released this month, the volume of juice stocked by the processors in SP in Dec/22 was 14.5 % lower than that in the same period of 2021. If this percentage continues stable until the end of the 2022/23 season (on June 30, 2023), ending stocks may total 122.3 thousand tons (juice equivalent), very low – maybe even insufficient – to meet the markets’ demand until the new season steps up.

Orange supply has been low in Brazil since early 2023. In April, the pear oranges available in the market were the ones that ripen out of the usual period. However, the ones that were harvested earlier are not well accepted by consumers in the table market, since they did not reach the ideal maturation stage.

Despite low supply, pear orange prices weakened, due to the arrival of early varieties, such as hamlin, westin and rubi, to the market. Last month, the average price for pear oranges closed at BRL 46.87 per 40.8-kg box (on tree), 3.08 % lower than that from March but still 11.56 % higher than that in April last year, in nominal terms.

As the availability of pear oranges is low, many farmers – majorly in northern SP – tried to anticipate the harvesting of early varieties, aiming to take advantage of the current firm prices and make cash flow during the inter-harvest.

Ponkan tangerine

The prices for ponkan tangerine dropped last month too. While in March, supply was low, in April, the harvesting stepped up. Still, availability was not that high. The average price for ponkan tangerine closed at BRL 64.07 per 27-kg box (on tree) in April, 8.56 % lower than that in March but 40.6 % up from that in April/22, in nominal terms.

Tahiti lime

Opposite to the scenarios observed in the markets of oranges and ponkan tangerine, for tahiti lime, prices are on the rise, boosted by low supply – as the peak of harvest took place in the first bimester of 2023, supply in lower now.

Orange production for the 2022-2023 crop season totaled 314.21 million boxes1

The 2022-2023 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 10, 2023 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is 314.21 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows

Please download the complete crop update under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

The 2022/23 orange season in the citrus belt (São Paulo State and the Triângulo Mineiro) is ending, while the oranges from next season are still green. Thus, the volume of oranges being processed at the plants in SP has been low. Considering large-sized plants, only three of them were processing oranges in March. In the same period last year, the scenario was the same, while in 2021, only one plant was in operation, which confirms that industrial activity is still high for this time of the year.

However, one of these plants is forecast to end activities in April, since orange availability is low. So far, the prices paid by the industry in the spot market have been around BRL 38.00 per 40.8-kg box (harvested and delivered). Considering the oranges from the new season (2023/24), bids have been higher, at BRL 40/box, however, the farmers consulted by Cepea reported some deals at BRL 42/box.

Most of the oranges from the 23/24 season has been sold. Thus, the number of fruits available in the spot market in 2023/24 will be low. However, processors’ needs are high, since their juice inventories are low.

As for the oranges not purchased yet, agents from processors reported that farmers are not rushing to sell them, since quotations have been firm in the table market, which may lead them to send the ripen fruits to this segment. These fruits may also be sent to small-sized plants that produce whole juice, which continue to process fruits and are paying up to BRL 45/box. However, for the production of whole juice, quality requirements are usually higher.

Orange processing in the 2023/24 season is forecast to begin in mid-May at large-sized processors. However, only from June onwards the volume is expected to increase.

The processing of the oranges from the 2022/23 crop is beginning to slow down in Brazil, but it is still higher than the usual for this time of the year. In February, five plants – of the large-sized processors – were operating, the same as that last year but much more than that in 2020 and in 2021, when only a single plant was processing oranges.

According to Cepea collaborators, last year, the orange harvest was delayed, which explained the higher volume being processed in February. However, in the 2022/23 season, late processing is due to rains, which are hampering crop activities – although workers manage to get into the groves to harvest oranges, transportation is being difficulted.

The end of processing is still uncertain. Agents from processors reported that planning has been postponed because of the difficulties in crop activities. So far, some plants are expected to continue to process oranges in March.

A frequent concern among agents from processors is the yield of the oranges being harvested, majorly in 2023. They reported that, with frequent rainfall, the quality of the fruits for juice production has decreased, raising the number of boxes needed to the produce a ton of concentrated juice – higher moisture raises water absorption by fruits.

As for prices in the spot market, they were up to BRL 38.00 per 40.8-kilo box (harvested and delivered to processor) in February, considering large-sized companies. At smaller-sized processors, the prices paid for pear and late oranges reached BRL 40.00/box.

For the new crop (2023/24), whose processing is expected to begin in May/June, bids from large-sized processors have been up to BRL 38.00/box. Agents from processors reported that, despite the increase compared to the first bids for the 2022/23 crop, farmers expected higher prices, and, thus, many of them postponed deals.

ORANGE JUICE – Despite the valuation of concentrated orange juice at ICE Futures in recent months, there have not been major reflexes on processors’ revenue. According to Cepea collaborators, most of the juice is being sold through contracts with fixed prices. Since Jan. 1st, the contract due in March has valued 19%%, closing at USD 3,543/ton on Feb. 23rd.

TAHITI LIME – Tahiti lime processing was high in February but is expected to slow down in March. The company that processes tahiti lime aims to receive lower volumes of the fruit in the coming weeks. In February, two plants were receiving tahiti lime, but from March onwards, only one of them is expected to keep activities going. The prices paid by large and small-sized processors for tahiti lime are between BRL 12 and BRL 14/box.

The demand for oranges in the in natura market has been increasing since mid-January. The supply, in turn, is low, especially for out of season pear oranges, which present higher quality compared to others. Therefore, pear orange prices are moving up, operating above BRL 50.00 per 40.8-kilo box (on tree). The average price for pear oranges was at BRL 47.59 per box (on tree) between Feb 13 and 16, for an increase of 3.4 % from that in the week before.

The supply of late fruits is also low, but slightly higher than that for pear oranges, and the ripening level is more advanced, which is leading some purchasers away from trades.

Concerning the tahiti lime, prices are at low levels and have not been enough to cover production costs for most citrus growers. However, in mid-February, players surveyed by Cepea reported a slight price rise because of the firm demand (as the carnaval period was close in Brazil, the demand to prepare drinks usually increases) and of the quality improvement in some areas – fruits that are close to the ideal standard have higher prices. In spite of that, tahiti prices may not recover significantly up to the end of February, since the supply is expected to continue high.

ORANGE JUICE EXPORTS – Brazilian shipments of orange juice continue to increase in the partial of the 2022/23 season (from July/22 to January/23). Secex data indicate that the volume totaled 707.7 thousand tons, 15% up compared to the same period in 2021/22. The revenue totaled USD 1.3 billion, for an increase of 35% in the same comparison.

Updated orange production1 forecast totals 316.23 million boxes

The third 2022-2023 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on February 10, 2023 by Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 amounted to 316.23 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, a volume 0.7 % higher than the projected scenario in December 2022. This increase is mainly due to the production of the Pera Rio variety, whose harvest is close to the end with higher-than-expected yield. The heavy rains that occurred in the last two months could have further expanded the crop yield, since they contributed to the growth and weight increase of oranges. However, the highly frequent and intense rainfall (many in the form of storms), also significantly intensified the premature fruit drop, offsetting the positive effect of weight gain. This was especially true for the late varieties, as most of these cultivars had not been harvested when the heavy rains started …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

Britvic, one of the largest companies in the world in the non-alcoholic beverage sector, announces the adoption of SIG’s PAC.TRUST solution for the digitisation of its laboratory analysis processes at its operations in the Brazilian states of Ceará and Minas Gerais. Britvic will adopt the Laboratory Information Management Systems (LIMS) and Digitalisation modules of the PAC.TRUST solution, enabling traceability of internal processes in minutes.

The solution is a tool to digitise monitoring and quality records at the three plants of the Britvic group in Brazil, located in Astolfo Dutra and Araguari (MG), as well as Aracati (CE). With PAC.TRUST in operation, Britvic strengthens and brings more agility to its quality control processes, eliminating the need to convert physical records to multiple spreadsheets, and providing more security to information within the respective plants. This digitisation minimises errors and deviations due to incorrect records caused by duplicate data entries. PAC.TRUST also allows Britvic to reduce the time in simulations and effective traceability actions, to simplify audits, and to bring even more reliability to all processes involved in the supply chain, reinforcing its commitment to product quality and its growth strategy.

SIG’s modularised PAC.TRUST solution helps SIG customers to have complete visibility of the production chain per package. For Britvic, SIG used two modules of the PAC.TRUST solution, LIMS and Digitalização (Digitisation). The solution was installed in 2022 and has already brought several benefits to the company, such as a 40 % reduction in quality data analysis time, an increase in the level of information security with data storage redundancy, a 75 % reduction in weekly record checking time and 8x faster traceability, providing a digital and integrated operation at corporate level.

Flowers of the 2023/24 crop, verified in the second semester of 2022, were considered excellent in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro, which resulted in expectations of a good harvest. However, the weather after flowers blossomed was not ideal in many areas. Therefore, the next season may register lower supply compared to the demand.

Areas that have irrigation system (44 % of the total is located in the north of São Paulo state) registered anticipated flowers (in mid-July), and the weather was good after the blossoming. In this case, the development is considered satisfactory.

In other areas, however, scenarios were very distinct, since the rainfall was irregular and at different volumes among the regions. In the southwest of SP, flowers blossomed in late September, while it occurred in mid-October in other areas. In this case, as flowers opened in the rainy season (September/October), there had been more cases of blossom-end rot (“estrelinha”), increasing flower abortion.

Another aspect that reinforced concerns of the citrus sector in Brazil is the below-average amount of rainfall in many regions during the flower-settlement (especially in November), and temperatures were high in some moments. Thus, fruitlets dropped. From mid-December until now, rains have been more frequent, which brings relief, but are not capable to revert the scenario of losses.

In general, players expected that the 2023/24 season would be higher than the current; however, after many difficulties, opinions have started to change. The USDA released a report in December indicating that the Brazilian production may total 305 million 40.8-kilo boxes, 1.9% less compared to the current crop. It is important to mention that a more accurate forecast for 2023/24 will be possible only in mid-February.

Therefore, the scenario of low inventories at the end of 2022/23 may not be reverted in the next season. CitrusBR says that the ending stocks by June/23 may total only 140 thousand tons, lower than the strategic level, of 250 thousand tons.

Cepea calculations indicate that, in order for the volume in stocks by the end of 2023/24 (in June/24) returns to the strategic level of 250 thousand tons, the orange processing in 2023/24 may be at roughly 300 million 40.8-kilo boxes, which is equivalent to a production in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro at 340 million boxes, higher than what the USDA forecast.

TAHITI LIME – The first two months of 2023 may register high supply in São Paulo state, due to the peak period, which can press down quotations. On the other hand, as the industry may intensify processing activities and exports tend to increase in this period, the volume available is expected to reduce in the domestic market.

In 2022, orange prices were similar to those in 2021 in the in natura market. Although the production had increased in the citrus belt in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro, the supply was controlled, due to the fact that more fruits were sent to the industry. However, both the Brazilian economy and the weather were unstable, limiting the consumption in some periods. From January to November, the average price for pear oranges was at BRL 38.93 per 40.8-kilo box (on tree), 1.6 % down compared to the same period in 2021.

As for the industrial segment, values moved up from 2021 to 2022, despite the recovery in the orange production. Juice stocks closed the 2021/22 season at low levels, leading processors to increase the demand for the raw material. From July to November, the average price in the spot market was BRL 31.22 per 40.8-kilo box (harvested and delivered), 8% up in relation to the same period in 2021. It is worth noting that producers were expecting more significant price rises, due to the sharp increase of production costs.

The orange production in the 2022/23 season is likely to hit 314.11 million 40.8-kilo boxes in the citrus belt (SP and Triângulo Mineiro), for an increase of 19.5 % in relation to the crop before, according to that projected by Fundecitrus in December/22. This forecast is related to the favourable weather (regular rainfall). In spite of the recovery, the production may not be enough to have surplus, due to the high demand from the industry, since juice stocks are low.

According to CitrusBR, orange juice ending stocks in the 2021/22 crop (June/22) were confirmed at low levels, 143.1 thousand tons, downing almost 55 % compared to the season before.

Despite the increase in the 2022/23 orange production, the volume in stocks by the end of the crop may not recover. CitrusBR estimates that 2022/23 stocks, in June 2023, are likely to total 140 thousand tons. The industrial yield, in turn, may be lower than in the crop before, and exports are expected to increase, due to the higher juice demand from the US.

JUICE EXPORTS – Orange juice shipments decreased 3 % in the 2021/22 season (from July/21 to June/22) compared to the previous. Exports to all destinations totaled slightly more than 1 million tons, according to Secex. The revenue amounted USD 1.68 billion, 9 % up in the same comparison.

This is the second consecutive crop that shipments move down, and this may be related to the low orange production in São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro over the last two crops (2020/21 and 2021/22). The revenue increase, in turn, is linked to the higher dollar prices, especially from March/22 onwards. In the partial of the current season (from July/22 to November/22), exports are moving up again, influenced by the firm demand from the United States.

The 2022/23 orange crop in Florida may be the lowest since 1936/37, with the impacts of greening reinforced by hurricanes Ian and Nicole. In December, the USDA updated its production estimate to only 20 million 40.8-kilo boxes, 29 % less compared to that forecast in October and 51 % below the previous season.

SIG announced a BRL 10 million investment in innovative recycling technology that will enable polymers and aluminium from used aseptic carton packs to be recovered and sold separately for the first time on an industrial scale in Brazil. By expanding the range of applications for recycled materials from used aseptic cartons, SIG expects to increase their value by more than 50 %.

Innovative recycling technology

The renewable paper board that makes up around 75 % of aseptic carton packs on average can be separated for recycling in paper mills through Brazil’s existing recycling infrastructure. The polyethylene and aluminium mix (polyaluminium or PolyAl) left over from this process can be recycled into a robust material for purposes such as roofing, pallets and furniture.

SIG’s recycling plant will use innovative technology that makes it possible to separate the polyethylene from the aluminium in PolyAl to create a wider market and demand for these recycled materials. Developed over five years with project partner ECS Consulting, the new technology has already undergone a pilot project that proved the effectiveness of the chemical recycling process.

The new recycling plant is currently in construction in the state of Paraná. It is expected to begin operating in 2024 with an initial production capacity of 200 tonnes per month. Together with industry partners, SIG has also invested in a plant in Germany to separate polymers and aluminium from PolyAl that went into production in 2021.
Ethical collection programmes

Investing in new technology to create a wider market for recycled materials is an important step in increasing recycling rates for used aseptic cartons. SIG has already led the way with innovative programmes to support two other important steps: collection of used packaging from consumers and separation of that packaging to go into the right recycling streams.

SIG’s so+ma vantagens programme, run in partnership with NGO so+ma since 2018, enables people in underprivileged communities to collect loyalty points for bringing in waste for recycling. The points can then be exchanged for rewards, such as essential food products and skills training. SIG is now expanding this model to promote recycling and bring additional societal benefits to further municipalities in Brazil and beyond.

SIG also promotes public policies for selective waste collection in Brazil, and supports effective infrastructure and decent working conditions for waste collectors’ cooperatives as a seed investor in the Recicleiros Cidades programme. Set up with NGO Recicleiros in 2018, the programme is now operational in 13 municipalities and aims to reach 60 by 2027.

The harvesting of late orange varieties began at a slow pace in mid-October. Although maturation was not ideal then, oranges were within the minimum standards required by the market, leading farmers to begin the harvesting.

The first variety available in the market was valência, followed by natal. Even the variety “folha murcha”, whose harvesting usually begins in December, arrived at the market in the first fortnight of November.

Agents expect supply (majorly of valência and natal oranges) to increase in the coming weeks, as the harvesting steps up in December – activities are forecast to end in mid-February. Also, the share of late varieties at juice processing plants is expected to gradually increase this month, accounting for the most part in December.

At juice processors, although quality standards (ratio and brix) are not within requirements, agents from the industry reported to be receiving late varieties – many of them blend these varieties with the juice from pear oranges without any quality loss. However, the supply of these varieties is still low because of difficulties to find labor for the harvesting.

The first 2022-2023 orange crop forecast update for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt published by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp1 –, is 314.09 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. That figure represents a decrease of 2.86 million boxes in relation to the initial estimate published in May this year and corresponds to -0.9 %. Approximately 22.97 million boxes of the total crop are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro

Please download the full orange crop forecast update under www.fundecitrus.com.

1Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

Amid low rainfall in São Paulo State since the end of the Summer (in late March), farmers have been concerned about the effects of the current lack of moisture on orange trees. According to Inmet (Brazilian Institute of Meteorology), it has not rained in SP for 50 days, the longest drought since 2012. To make things worse, last month was the hottest July in SP in all times.

For the oranges still on tree (from the 2022/23 season), although major damages have not been reported, the drought is concerning. In dry-land groves, some fruits wilted, reducing both quality and size for the in natura market, making them only suitable to the industry. Besides, some oranges and leaves fell off due to high water stress.

Also, the effects of greening on oranges have increased this year in many Brazilian areas. It is important to consider that, according to Fundecitrus, last year, greening affected 22.37 % of the orange trees in SP, the highest average.

On the other hand, the lack of rains is necessary to cause groves some water stress, which is crucial for blooming. According to Cepea collaborators, in northern SP, where groves are irrigated, many farmers began irrigating the plants in mid-June, and trees are now beginning to bloom. In these areas, conditions have been favourable so far. In dry-land groves, blooming is expected to occur as soon as it rains in the citrus belt.

BRAZILIAN MARKET IN JULY – The demand for citrus increased in Brazil in July, favoured by the atypical warm weather during the month. On the other hand, although the orange harvesting was in full swing in SP last month, industries’ purchases were high, which pushed up quotations.

The 2022/23 harvesting of early fruits is advancing in São Paulo state. In this scenario, industrial processing activities are following the harvesting pace and requiring more fruits.

According to players from the industry, the ratio of early fruits has improved and practically all fruits have been allowed for delivery, both in the spot market or for contracts. The industrial yield, however, is still low, which is common at the beginning of the crop.

Crushing activities are now taking place in eight processors in São Paulo: Araraquara, Araras, Bebedouro, Catanduva, Colina, Conchal and two in Matão. The companies have already been receiving some volumes of pera orange, but the majority is early fruits – the pera orange availability tends to increase from mid-September onwards.

In the spot market, values are ranging from 27.00 and 28.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, harvested and delivered at the processor. As for contracts, quotations may hit 31.00 BRL per box in big companies. In small processing companies, values are at 35.00 BRL/box.

The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2021/22 is forecast at 414.4 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx) or 16.91 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 15 percent vis-à-vis the current season, supported by good weather conditions as of October 2021. Production costs are estimated at over R$ 33,000 per hectare (ha) or US$6,600/ha, up 27 percent compared to the previous crop, supported by high fertiliser, ag chemicals, and diesel prices. Total Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent exports for MY 2021/22 are forecast to be relatively stable at 1.04 million metric tons (MT), an increase of 30,000 MT vis-à-vis MY 2020/21

Please download the full report: https://apps.fas.usda.gov

Orange supply is expected to gradually increase in June, however, the demand for the fruit is also supposed to be higher, as orange processing rises. This scenario may limit devaluations in the in natura market.

Processing plants are expected to begin activities in June. So far, five plants of the large-sized processors have been operating in São Paulo State, and more plants are supposed to begin activities this month, majorly in the second fortnight.

In the spot market, values have been stable. The processors that are currently purchasing oranges in the spot have been paying from BRL 25 to BRL 27.00 per 40.8-kilo box (harvested and delivered at processor). As for contracts, quotations have hit BRL 32.00/box, however, not all plants are receiving fruits, and some of them have minimum quality requirements, mainly related to ratio.

The 2022-2023 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on May 26, 2022 by Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp, is 316.95 million boxes (40.8 kg). Total orange production includes:

  • 59.48 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties;
  • 17.52 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and BRS Alvorada;
  • 93.95 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety;
  • 106.78 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties;
  • 39.22 million boxes of the Natal variety.

Approximately 22.99 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro.

The projected volume is 20.53 % higher than the previous crop that totaled 262.97 million boxes and represents an increase of 1.11 % in relation to last ten years’ average,

Please download the complete summary as pdf-file under www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

The harvesting of early oranges is expected to advance in May, which may raise supply and press down quotations. In general, availability has been growing since mid-April, weakening prices.

In April (until April 28th), the average price for pear oranges closed at BRL 42.10 per 40.8-kilo box (on tree), a slight 4.96 % down from that in March (BRL 43.00/box). Before that, values had increased for two months.

On the other hand, for early oranges, quotations were firm in April – the average price for rubi oranges closed at BRL 35.71/box, 3.63 % higher than that in March. As the values for this group of oranges have been lower than that for pear oranges, the competitiveness of early oranges has increased.

For the coming weeks, if prices drop, sales tend to increase, since demand may be higher. However, if values decrease too steeply, farmers may reduce the harvesting, since the oranges on tree have not reached the ideal maturation stage yet. Thus, citrus farmers may prefer to wait for the beginning of activities at processing plants. The industry’s purchase proposals for the oranges from the 2022/23 season have been up to BRL 32.00/box (harvested and delivered).

Although two plants of the large-sized processors were processing oranges in late April, activities were slow because of low supply. By the end of last month, only one plant was purchasing early oranges (as long as ratio is near or higher than 14).

The prices for Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent rose high at ICE Futures in the first fortnight of April, reflecting the current low world supply, majorly in Brazil and in Florida (USA). Between April 1st and 13, the May/22 contract for orange juice increased by 20 %, and in 2022, by more than 30 %, closing at USD 2,650/ton on April 13.

Indeed, orange production (and juice production) in the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo State and the Triângulo Mineiro) decreased in the 2021/22 crop, which is practically over. According to a report released by Fundecitrus in the first half of April, the Brazilian citrus belt is expected to harvest 262.97 million boxes (40.8-kilograms) of oranges, 10.6 % down from the first estimates (May/21) and 2.2 % lower than that in the previous season.

This context will influence the Brazilian supply of orange juice, since the citrus belt is the major orange-producing region in Brazil. In February, Citrus BR estimated that, by the end of the season (in June 2022), the national stocks of orange juice (forecast at 127 thousand tons) will not be enough to ensure the world supply until the new crop (2022/23) steps up.

The same scenario is observed in Florida, where production estimates were revised down by the USDA by 19 % compared to the expected in Oct/21, to 38.2 million boxes, 28 % lower than that last season.

Lower production in the current and in previous seasons is reflecting on local stocks. According to the Florida Department of Citrus, from the beginning of the 2021/22 crop, in Oct/21, to March 26, 2022, the stocks of FCOJ were 31 % lower than that in the same period of the previous season. For not-from-concentrate orange juice, stocks were 25 % lower.

In this context, although the United States did not increase imports of concentrated orange juice – which decreased by 4.6 % between Oct/21 and Jan/22, according to the Florida Department of Citrus –, they increased purchases of not-from-concentrate orange juice. Brazil supplied 85 % of all the not-from-concentrate orange juice and 71 % of the FCOJ imported by the USA.

These estimates for Brazil and the USA explain the recent valuations of orange juice at ICE Futures. In both countries, supply is not expected to recover in the coming season (2022/23).

In the Brazilian citrus belt, although orange production may increase slightly, a higher harvest would not be enough to raise stocks and ensure world supply, since the current volume stocked is very low. In Florida, with the high incidence of greening on orchards (which has been lowering the average productivity of orange trees) and the smaller area with orange orchards in the state in the last years, production is not expected to return to the levels observed in previous decades.

Orange production for the 2021-2022 crop season totaled 262.97 million boxes1

The 2021-2022 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 11, 2022, by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 is 262.97 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. Approximately 23.35 million boxes were produced in West Minas Gerais.

This final figure was 10.61 % smaller than the initially expected volume published in May 2021, corresponding to a significant crop loss of 31.20 million boxes. Although this was an “on-year” for the alternate-bearing, when plants produced a larger amount of fruit, a sharp decrease in rainfall and more intense atypical frosts inhibited the growth of oranges and contributed to an increased early fruit drop, therefore reducing the number of oranges at harvest. Under those conditions, there was a yield loss in groves, which made the crop decrease 2.11 % as compared to the previous one, resulting in a small crop for the second consecutive year. Total orange production included:

  • 47.16 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
  • 14.85 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple early-season varieties;
  • 74.78 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
  • 96.59 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
  • 29.59 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.

The May 2021 forecast considered that the yield of groves would be affected due to the lower rainfall volume that was already forecast for 2021. However, forecasts did not point to climate conditions as extreme as those observed, which brought greater than expected damage. The prolonged dry spell turned out to be the worst drought in almost a century, with water shortage in practically all regions of the citrus belt. That critical situation severely impacted rainfed groves, which encompass approximately 70 % of the total area and inevitably rely on rainfall. But even irrigated groves were affected by drought. In many locations, rivers and reservoirs reached the most critical levels ever recorded, restricting water use for irrigation. This crop’s most critical period was from May to September 2021, when accumulated rainfall was almost 70 % below historical average. The scenario started to improve in late September and early October when spring came

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

The weather has been favouring the development of the 2022/23 orange crop. In general, frequent rainfall (since mid-October 2021) is helping the oranges to grow bigger and, thus, agents expect productivity to recover from the two previous seasons, when the volume harvested was low.

According to Cepea collaborators, the general scenario has been more favourable this year. Although the first blooming was late in some orchards (in mid-September in irrigated orchards and in October in dry land, after the return or rains), the number of flowers was considered positive, complemented by other blooming in the following months. Besides, the fruits set rate was high, favoured by rains followed by sunny days most of the time.

It is important to highlight that the damages caused by the long drought in the last two years (and frosts in some areas last Winter) were not completely offset, however, orange trees are currently more vigorous, leading agents to believe that productivity will be higher this season. Still, agents have distinct estimates about the harvest: some, who are more pessimistic, expect 300 million boxes to be harvested, while others, more optimistic, believe it will hit 350 million boxes. However, most of them expect something between 300 and 350 million boxes.

The only available estimates were released by the USDA in December, indicating the crop in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro to total 305 million boxes (15.5 % higher than that in 2021/22). Agents are waiting for Fundecitrus’s estimates, to be released in May.

It is worth to mention that, despite the production increase, orange supply is expected to be tight in the 2022/23 season, due to the high demand from processors to replenish juice stocks – which are forecast at 127 thousand tons by the end of the 2021/22 season, in June 2022, according to estimates from CitrusBR. Still according to CitrusBR, this volume will not be enough to meet the world demand until the new season steps up.

In that scenario, even if the volume produced is near the expected by the more optimistic, there should not be an orange surplus, which justifies the high prices bid by processors for 2022/23.

This scenario may also limit supply in the in natura market along the season, however, this would not ensure higher prices, since the purchase power of many consumers in Brazil is weak because of the current high inflation and the national economic scenario.

Tahiti lime prices faded in São Paulo State in the first fortnight of March. According to Cepea collaborators, the current hot weather in Brazil has been favoring consumption, however, supply is high, due to the peak of harvest. Thus, quotations were pressed down.

However, many farmers reported that supply is beginning to decrease. The harvesting, which has been in full swing since mid-January, is expected to slow down until the end of March.

During the peak of harvest in 2022 (January – March), the quotations for tahiti lime have been lower than that in the same period of 2021. From the beginning of the year until March 10th, the average price for this variety closed at BRL 21.92/box, harvested, 1.8 % down from that in the first quarter of 2021, in nominal terms. Only in January/22 prices were higher than that in Jan/21.

The lower volume to be harvested in the coming weeks is expected to limit processing. By the end of the first fortnight, four plants were operating in SP, paying from BRL 18 to BRL 20.00 per 27-kilo box, harvested and delivered to processors.

EXPORTS – Brazilian exports of lemon and lime have been high this year. According to Secex, in the first two months of 2022, Brazil shipped to all destinations 22 thousand tons of lemons and limes, 17.1 % up from that in the same period last year, only lower than that in the first bimester of 2020. Revenue total USD 17.3 million, 11.9 % up in the same comparison. Despite higher volume and revenue, the average price (in dollar) paid for the fruit is lower than that from the same period of 2021.

In February, exports performance was a record for the month, favored by high supply in SP and higher quality of the fruits (because of recent rainfall). According to Secex, Brazil shipped 11.8 thousand tons of lemon and lime in February, 13.4 % up from that in Feb/21. Revenue totaled USD 9.2 million, 9.5 % up, in the same comparison.

The company will build new storage tanks for not-from-concentrate orange juice, supporting increased commercialization to European markets

Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC), a leading global merchant and processor of agricultural goods, announced the construction of new orange juice storage tanks in the city of Matão, located in Brazil’s largest citrus producing region, in the state of São Paulo. The project aims to increase the company’s production and storage capacity for not-from-concentrate (NFC) orange juice, a product with high added value for the consumer market.

The new investment in Matão, where LDC operates since 1988, will bring NFC storage capacity at the site to 30 million liters, and annual juice production capacity to 300 million liters.

“Increasing production and storage capacity for NFC will allow us to meet growing consumer demand for this high value-added product, especially in Europe, while reinforcing our position among the top three global processors and merchandizers of orange juice,” said Juan José Blanchard, Head of the LDC’s Juice Platform.

This project is the second phase in LDC’s plans to expand commercialization of NFC in Europe, North America and Asia. In 2020, the company announced a new, dedicated fleet for juice transportation that reduces fuel consumption by 40 % and sulfur emission levels by 85 % per ton of product. LDC also increased storage capacity by more than 50 %, and blending capacity by more than 20 %, at its port terminal and processing facility in Ghent, Belgium.

Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of orange juice, a business in which LDC has been active for over 30 years. The company’s operations in the country are fully integrated, comprising more than 25,000 hectares of sustainably grown citrus groves – strategically located in Brazil’s citrus belt – as well as three citrus juice processing plants and an export terminal in the Port of Santos (São Paulo state).

“This project also reinforces the company’s commitment to long-term investment in Brazil, a key origination market for over 80 years,” added Jorge Costa, Global Operations Director for LDC’s Juice Platform.

The new storage tanks are expected to be operational by the end of 2023.

About Louis Dreyfus Company
Louis Dreyfus Company is a leading merchant and processor of agricultural goods, founded in 1851. We leverage our global reach and extensive asset network to serve our customers and consumers around the world, delivering the right products to the right location, at the right time – safely, reliably and responsibly. Our activities span the entire value chain, from farm to fork, across a broad range of business lines (platforms) including Grains & Oilseeds, Coffee, Cotton, Juice, Rice, Sugar, Freight, Carbon Solutions and Global Markets. We help feed and clothe some 500 million people every year by originating, processing and transporting approximately 80 million tons of products. Structured as a matrix organization of six geographical regions and nine platforms, Louis Dreyfus Company is active in over 100 countries and employs approximately 17,000 people globally.

In late February, the large-sized processors in São Paulo made their first purchase proposals for the oranges from the 2022/23 crop. Of the three companies in the state, two of them are interested in closing deals, bidding from BRL 30 – BRL 32.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered. The third processing plant was only renewing existing contracts. However, the number of deals closed is still low, since farmers expect prices to rise higher, due to both firm demand from the industry and, largely, higher production costs.

Indeed, data recently released by CitrusBR show that the volume of orange juice stocked by the end of the current season (in June 2022) will not be enough to supply the international market until the middle of next season. According to CitrusBR, ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent in the 2021/22 season are expected to total 126.574 thousand tons – possibly ranging between 115 and 135 thousand tons. It is important to mention that previous estimates (from September 2021) pointed to stocks between 170 and 190 thousand tons, but bad weather conditions (drought and frosts) reduced processing and hampered fruits development and ripening (influencing industrial yield).

If CitrusBR’s forecasts are confirmed, the volume stocked is expected to be much lower than the strategic level, of 250 thousand tons, scenario that may be observed at least until the end of the 2022/23 season (in June 2023) if the number of oranges produced is not high.

Cepea calculations show that, for stocks to surpass the strategic level by the end of next season, the number of boxes harvested in the citrus belt in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro needs to be over 340 million – and of this total, 300 million need to be allocated to the industry. For these results were considered sales of a million tons (slightly lower than the average) and the average industrial yield of the past five crops.

Although it seems juice supply in Brazil will be tight for at least one more season, agents from processors have not reported any significant valuations for the commodity yet. This would be the major reason why bids for the new season have not been higher. On Feb. 23, the May contract at ICE Futures closed at USD 1,993/ton, 2 % down from that on December 30. However, it is important to mention that values at ICE Futures do not reflect real sales prices of processing plants.

One of the facts that may be constraining juice valuations abroad is the fear of bottling plants as for the negative effects of higher prices in Brazil. In the major destinations for the Brazilian orange juice, the United States and the European Union, demand for the product has been fading for some years, majorly because of the wide variety of other beverages, such as flavoured water, energy drinks and other types of juice, for instance.

Orange prices increased in the Brazilian in natura market in the first fortnight of February. According to Cepea collaborators, frequent rains in the citrus belt (São Paulo State) favoured the quality (majorly the size) of oranges, making them suitable for sale in the in natura segment and allowing farmers to raise asking prices. Besides, rainfall also hampered the harvesting, limiting supply. In that scenario, values remained firm.

Usually, orange availability is not high in February – a month that may even be considered offseason –, however, as the 2021/22 season is late, supply is currently higher. Still, there is not an orange surplus in the domestic market, since processing at industries has been faster than usual this month.

So far, the number of early varieties to be harvested is not high – activities are expected to step up only from March onwards. However, supply may be constrained by the low flower set in the first blooming. Thus, the oranges currently available in the in natura market are mostly late varieties and pear oranges out of the ideal period.

TAHITI LIME – The production of tahiti lime is also being favoured by rains, however, farmers reported difficulties to harvest the fruits, which underpinned prices in the first fortnight of February, although it is currently the peak of harvest for tahiti lime in Brazil.

Despite the recent valuations for oranges and tahiti lime, Cepea collaborators have reported that the current economic scenario in Brazil is still constraining higher price rises. With high unemployment and inflation rates and lower income, the purchase power of many consumers is weak.

ESTIMATES – Although rains have favoured the quality of part of the fruits in orchards, they have not been enough to reverse all the damages caused by the drought to the oranges from the 2021/22 season.

According to data from Fundecitrus released on Feb. 10, the orange output (São Paulo + Triângulo Mineiro) in the 2021/22 season is still estimated at 264.14 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms, the same as that estimated in December, but 10 % below that forecast at the beginning of the season.

According to Somar/Climatempo (weather forecast agency), rainfall in SP between May/21 and Jan/22 was 25 % below the average for the period. In the Triângulo Mineiro, rains were 5 % higher than the average. Thus, orange growth was hampered, and the average fruit weight decreased. However, it is important to consider that the oranges harvested in February and in March 2022 are expected to be slightly larger, since they have been favoured by recent rains.

The volume harvested is still enough to replenish ending stocks at the processing plants in SP. According to CitrusBR, by the end of the 2021/22 season (in June 2022), the volume of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (Equivalent) stocked is expected to total 170 – 190 thousand tons, lower than the strategic level (250 thousand tons). It is important to consider that new estimates are supposed to be released until the end of February.

In this scenario, the harvest in 2022/23 needs to be large enough to raise stocks at least to the strategic level and thus prevent a world shortage of orange juice. Cepea calculations show that the orange output next season needs to total, at least, 330 million boxes in order to raise juice stocks to 250 thousand tons.

PROGRESS OF THE 2021/22 HARVESTING – According to Fundecitrus’ report, 82 % of the orange orchards had been harvested by mid-January/22, similar to that in the same period last season (81 %).

The processing of the oranges from the 2021/22 season has been high in the major processors in São Paulo State. Although activities usually slow down in January, the orange harvesting is late in the current season – because of the higher share of fruits from the second, third and fourth flowerings.

In January, seven plants of the large-sized processors in SP were in operation, receiving majorly late varieties and early pear oranges. However, activities slowed down last month compared to that in December, due to the end of processing at the plant located in Uchôa. In February, the plant in Conchal is supposed to end activities for the season too – then, there will be only two plants of each one of the large-sized processors in operation.

Despite the fast processing pace, the quality of the oranges is below the expected. Industrial yield (number of orange boxes necessary to produce a ton of concentrated juice), which had been favoured by the lack of rains along the season, is now being reduced by excessive and frequent precipitation – higher moisture favours fruits growth, but raises the volume of water within the oranges, which is not desired by processors.

PRICES – Two large-sized processors purchased oranges in the Brazilian spot market in January, paying from BRL 28 to BRL 30.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered to processor. At smaller-sized processors, prices hit BRL 32/box. Some plants were also processing tahiti lime, paying from BRL 18 to BRL 21.00 per 27-kilo box.

In 2021, orange prices were high in São Paulo State (SP) and in the Triângulo Mineiro. In general, the industry in SP kept the demand high for fruits, and the low production limited the supply throughout the year. Although the remuneration (in BRL per box) had been higher, the profitability for many citrus growers was restricted, given that the limited productivity increased the cost of production per unit even more.

Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) indicated, in its estimate released in December/21, that the production in the citrus belt may reduce 1.7 % compared to 2020/21, totaling 264.14 million 40.8-boxes. Even with the positive biennial cycle in the 2021/22 season and the higher fruit load, oranges have presented a smaller size, which explains the lower production.

From May to August 2021, rainfall accounted for only 30 % of the regular volume for the period, according to data from Somar Meteorologia/Climatempo. Fundecitrus says that this scenario affected even irrigated orange groves (which correspond to 30 % of the citrus belt), due to the limited water supply in tanks. In some areas, frosts in July worsened the situation. Besides the small-sized oranges, the premature fruit drop was one of the worst in history.

Due to the low supply of fruits, orange juice processors boosted prices compared to the 2020/21 season. In the partial of the crop (from July to December/21), the average price in the spot market was 27.50 BRL/40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at the industry, for a nominal increase of 22.5 % in relation to the same period last year.

EXPORTS – As expected, orange juice (volume equivalent to concentrate juice) shipments finished the 2020/21 season with a 7 % decrease in relation to the previous (2019/20). From July/20 to June/21, shipments to all destinations totaled 1.03 million tons, according to data from Secex. The revenue, in turn, amounted 1.54 billion USD, 15 % down compared to the season before.

IN NATURA MARKET – Orange prices hit nominal records in most part of 2021. Increases are attributed to the limited supply in the 2021/22 crop, because of the low volume of rainfall and high temperatures in the second semester of 2020 and the low humidity in 2021. From the second semester of 2021 onwards, the low quality of fruits (due to a long period of dry weather and frosts in July) reinforced the upward trend. In the partial of the crop (from July to December/21), the average price for pear oranges (in natura) is at BRL 39.52/40.8-kilo box, on tree, 20 % up from the average in the same period in 2020, in nominal terms.

TAHITI – The price trend was atypical in 2021. Values were low in the first semester and in some periods of the second part of the year, and peak prices were less intense. From January to December, the average price for tahiti lime was at BRL 25.19/27-kilo box, harvested, 31.3 % lower compared to that in 2020.

The current number of flowers in the orange orchards in São Paulo – which will give origin to the fruits from the 2022/23 season – is considered satisfactory in most citrus-producing regions within the state. In general, while in irrigated orchards blooming was observed from September onwards, in non-irrigated orchards, flowers were only observed in October, after the late arrival of rainfall.

Agents have been concerned about the possible effects of the lack of rains this year on the vigor of orange trees, since low moisture may hamper fruit set, increasing the rate of fruitlet fall in irrigated orchards and, largely, in the orchards in dryland.

According to forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 90 % chance of La Niña forming in Brazil until the end of 2021. If this is confirmed, rainfall in the coming months may be lower than usual in the southeastern region of the country. However, La Niña is forecast to be weak in Brazil.

This scenario may have a negative influence on the output from the 2022/23 season, since the development stage of plants in the coming months demands good amounts of water. With estimates for low ending stocks of orange juice in the 2021/22 season, the output from 2022/23 needs to be high in order to ensure comfortable inventories for world supply.

Cepea calculations show that, for ending stocks in the 2022/23 season (June 2023) to return to the strategic level of 250 thousand tons, the output next season needs to surpass 330 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each. In this context, the average productivity would have to be around a thousand boxes per hectare, which has only been observed in seasons favored by the weather.