Pear orange prices remained virtually stable in April, averaging BRL 43.00 per 40.8-kilo box (on-tree, in natura market), down 1.7 % from March (BRL 43.76/box). Year on year, however, prices fell sharply by 56.1 %, from BRL 97.90/box in April 2025.
Although supply remains limited at the end of the 2025/26 season, price stability in April reflects competition from early-season fruit and subdued demand, with holidays during the month weighing on trading activity.
Industry
The average price of pear oranges delivered at the industry was at BRL 27.67 per 40.8-kilo box in April, down 11% compared to the BRL 31.00/box in March and 46.6% below the BRL 51.81/box verified in April 2025.
Brazilian orange juice exports in the current season (from July 2025 to March 2026) are virtually stable compared to the same period of the 2024/25 season, declining by just 0.3 %, according to Secex data. Revenue from international sales, however, fell by 27.1 %, reflecting lower prices this season.
Exports to the US have been maintaining the stability scenario. Between July 2025 and March 2026, the volume shipped to the country totaled 293.24 thousand tons, up 17.6 % compared to the previous season. Despite the higher volume sent to the US, revenue declined by 16.4 %, according to Secex data.
Shipments to the European Union, however, remain a concern for market players in Brazil. Although volumes increased by 49.3 % between February and March, totaling 36.9 thousand tons, this pace is not sufficient for exports in the 2025/26 season to reach the levels seen in the previous season.
Total orange production1 for the 2025-2026 crop season ended at 292.94 million boxes
The 2025-2026 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with full professor (retired) from FCAV/Unesp2, concluded with 292.94 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows:
- 46.23 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
- 17.65 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada early-season varieties;
- 87.44 million boxes of the Pera mid-season variety;
- 104.53 million boxes of the Valencia and Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
- 37.09 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.
Of the total, about 25.69 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
Production this season was 26.9 % higher compared to the previous crop, which reached 230.87 million boxes, and 6.9 % lower than the initial forecast released in May 2025. Climatic and phytosanitary factors, within the context of a more delayed harvest, contributed to higher fruit drop rates and to reduced fruit weight compared to the initial forecast. The 2025-2026 crop was marked by a later harvest pace compared to previous crop seasons due to the high proportion of second-bloom fruit and to harvesting at optimal maturity. In this context, most of the Pera variety was expected to be harvested after the onset of heavier spring rains; however, nearly half of its production was harvested under dry conditions, as rainfall only intensified midway through October. Moreover, below-average rainfall throughout the period also adversely impacted the weight of the late varieties Valencia, Folha Murcha, and Natal, which were harvested through mid-January and did not reach the expected weight of the initial forecast. Furthermore, the premature fruit drop rate in this crop reached the highest level observed over the past 11 crop seasons, driven by increased greening severity, higher incidence of citrus leprosis, water deficit, and the occurrence of strong wind gusts throughout the production cycle …
Please download the complete forecast here.
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
Brazilian shipments of orange juice to the European Union increased in January, which raised expectations for further increases in following months. However, sales to the EU declined again in February, somewhat discouraging market participants. Although exports to the United States remain firm, demand from Europe still needs to increase to support shipments.
Up to the 2023/24 season, exports to all destinations typically surpassed 1 million tons. In the 2024/25 crop, however, shipments totaled 775.6 thousand tons, 22.7 % less than in 2023/24.
In the accumulated of the 2025/26 season (from July/25 to February/26), Brazilian shipments of concentrate orange juice (66° brix) were at 549.96 thousand tons, considering data converted into FCOJ, downing 3.8 % compared to that recorded in 2024/25. The income, in turn, was at USD 1.885 billion in the first eight months of the season, for a decrease of 27.1 % in the same comparison – data from Secex.
OJ exports to the European Union amounted 250.2 thousand tons from July/25 to February/26, decreasing 55.7 thousand tons in relation to that verified in the same period of the season before. In February alone, Brazil shipped 24.5 thousand tons to the EU, against 49.8 thousand tons in January. Brazil would have to export 35.5 thousand tons per month until the end of the season (over the next four months) to reach the volume shipped to the EU last crop (392.1 thousand tons).
Shipments to the United States amounted 256.1 thousand tons between July and February, 23 % more than that verified in the same period of the crop before.
The 2025/26 orange season is nearing its end in the citrus belt in São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro. Players surveyed by Cepea report that the harvested volumes have already declined. As the season winds down, major processors still receiving fruits are concentrating operations in only a few processing units.
The most recent report by Fundecitrus, released in late January, indicated that only 13 % of the total volume estimated for the 2025/26 season was left to be harvested. It is likely that less than 5 % of the crop remains unharvested in late February.
The return of processing activities involving 2026/27 oranges is expected to take place between April and May.
As for prices, data from Cepea indicate that quotations of pear oranges delivered at the industry have averaged BRL 34.53 per 40.8-kilo box in February (up to Feb. 26), downing 7.69 % in relation to that in January.
Concerning in natura market, the supply of high-quality fruits has been decreasing. The demand, in turn, is still firm. In the partial of February, values of pear oranges have averaged BRL 41.40 per 40.8-kg box, on tree, for a decrease of 2.87 % against the first month of 2026.
As the 2025/26 season is close to the end, the sector is now focusing on weather conditions and its consequent impacts on the development of the 2026/27 crop.
The 2025/26 orange harvesting has been progressing well – up to mid-January, only 13 % of the crop remained to be harvested. The new estimate released in mid-February by Fundecitrus showed a slight change compared to the previous report, issued on December/25.
Fundecitrus says that the citrus belt in São Paulo and in Triângulo/Southwest of Minas Gerais is likely to produce 292.6 million 40.8 kg boxes, downing 0.7 % against the previous report, but 26.7 % above that verified in the 2024/25 crop.
The slightly smaller projection compared to the previous is linked to adjustments in the production of late fruits, such as valência and folha murcha, which are likely to amount 104.27 million boxes, 1.8 % less than that reported in December.
As the crop is nearing the end (Fundecitrus says that there are only 13 % of the crop left to be harvested), players surveyed by Cepea indicate that some units may finish processing activities this month. In addition to that, since the 2025/26 season is close to the end, players are focusing on the development of the 2026/27 crop.
Total orange production1 is updated at 292.60 million boxes
The third update of the 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with professor (retired) from FCAV/Unesp2, is 292.60 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90-pound box). In comparison to the May forecast, the crop season is expected to yield 22 million fewer boxes, a decline of 7%. Compared to the last forecast released in December, which projected 294.81 million boxes, the new estimate indicates a 0.7% reduction, corresponding to a decrease of 2.21 million boxes. This downward trend is due to the estimated smaller average size of late variety oranges, namely Valencia, Folha Murcha, and Natal. It is also estimated that approximately 25.73 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
From May 2025 to January 2026, the average accumulated rainfall in the citrus belt was 862 millimeters, which represents a 10% deficit in relation to the historical average (1991-2020), …
Please download the complete forecast here.
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera, Valencia, Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of Exact Sciences, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
Heavy rains in January affected the citrus market, especially the in natura segment. High humidity increased the incidence of fungus on trees, leading fruits to drop and affecting the quality. Part of the production that is sent to the industry ends up lost, while another share hits the market with low quality, pressing down quotations in a scenario of high supply.
In spite of the high humidity, January ended with relative stable prices of pear oranges for the industry. Players say that processing activities have been reducing gradually in some units in São Paulo, while other have directed part of their capacity to crush the tahiti lime.
The price average in January was at BRL 37.17 per 40.8-kilo box, stable in relation to December (BRL 37.05/box).
As for the tahiti lime, the high supply continues to press down values. Players surveyed by Cepea say that, due to low quotations verified in previous weeks, producers keep fruits on trees for longer, and they are likely to fall.
The price average for the tahiti lime is at BRL 22.97 per 27.2-kilo box in the last week of January, downing 9 % compared to that in the period before. Quotations for the fruit to export were at BRL 26.71 per 27.2-kilo box, for a decrease of 8 %.
2026 tends to be one of the most challenging year for the citrus sector in Brazil. Although the 2025/26 crop presents a good volume of production, close to 300 million boxes of 40.8-kg, this potential has been partially affected by the high rate of fruit droppage, due to greening and citrus canker, in addition to unfavorable weather conditions in important developmental stages.
At the same time, the demand for orange juice is low in Europe, hindering trades of the commodity in current price levels. As the pace of trades is slow, juice stocks tend to increase at processing companies, reducing the need of the industry to buy new fruit loads. Therefore, the competition between juice sellers and purchasers intensifies, while the industry is more careful about purchases.
A possible recovery of the OJ consumption tends to be gradual. Price drops to final consumers progress slowly, and the demand in the Northern Hemisphere tends to be more limited, due to the winter period. Therefore, in the summer 2026, the demand may increase again, favoring a reaction in OJ sales and in the consumption of inventories.
Concerning oranges, the 2025/26 season is likely to finish with a volume that is slightly lower than 300 million 40.8-kg boxes in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro. Still, the crop has been leading to a recovery of inventories, since it presented high-quality fruits. As for the 2026/27 season, greening and citrus canker concern producers, boosting production costs and limiting productivity gains.
As for the development of the 2026/27 crop, the heterogeneous weather among regions tends to result in distinct conditions in producing regions.
Pear orange prices to the industry started 2025 at high levels (BRL 88 per 40.8-kilo box in the first weeks of the year), influenced by the limited supply and the firm demand for fruits, which had presented good quality up until then.
However, prices dropped in the following months. Inventories of orange juice with lower quality and the low demand for new orange batches from the industry led quotations offered by citrus growers to decrease in the second quarter of the year. Moreover, in May, Fundecitrus projected a higher crop in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro, at 314.6 million 40.8-kg boxes.
The high rate of fruit droppage has been in the spotlight since the beginning of the season. Fundecitrus indicated in December that the rate had reached 23 % due to diseases such as the citrus greening and unfavorable weather conditions. Therefore, Fundecitrus reduced the production estimate for the 2025/26 season to 294.81 million boxes.
In addition to that, the sector faced months of uncertainties about the possible US tariff on orange juice imports from Brazil. However, in July, the US government decided to exempt the national product from the extra tariff of 40 %, but keeping the 10 % tax, which was in effect until November 10, 2025. Currently, only the USD 415/ton tariff is in effect.
In spite of that, the performance of exports in the beginning of the season (between July and November 2025) was still below that registered in the same period of the season before.
In this scenario of a delayed crop and of contracts established later and at smaller volumes, the pressure on values was intensified in the last quarter of the year.
Total orange production1 is updated at 294.81 million boxes
The second update of the 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on December 10, 2025, by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with professor (retired) from FCAV/Unesp2, is 294.81 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90-pound box). In comparison to the May forecast, the crop season is expected to yield 19.79 million fewer boxes, a decline of 6.3 %. Compared to the last forecast released in September, which projected 306.74 million boxes, the new estimate indicates a 3.9 % reduction, corresponding to a decrease of 11.9 million boxes. This downward trend is due to the estimated smaller average size of oranges and a higher rate of premature fruit drop. It is also estimated that approximately 25.83 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
When the last updated forecast was disclosed in September, the harvest pace indicated that a significant portion of the Pera variety crop would be harvested after the more intense rains expected during spring. However, rainfall in September …
Please download the complete forecast here.
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera, Valencia, Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of Exact Sciences, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
Rains in the second half of November favoured most producing regions in the citrus belt (São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro), supporting development of the 2026/27 crop and improving fruit quality for the 2025/26 season.
However, in several areas, rainfall came with strong winds and hail, damaging trees, fruits and flowers. Players surveyed by Cepea say the frequency of extreme weather events this year is a concern.
Prices
Despite the good fruit quality, in natura orange prices dropped in late November, pressured by the devaluation observed in the industry. Between November 24 and 27, pear orange in the spot market averaged BRL 38.44 per 40.8-kg box, down 1.82 % compared to that in the period before. In the in natura market, pear orange quotations decreased 5.29 % this week compared to the previous, closing at BRL 53.30 per 40.8-kg box. In the accumulated of the month, prices moved down 14.7 %.
Tariffs
The export sector of citrus products gained an important tariff relief in late November. The government from the United States exempted the additional tariff of 10 % for the orange juice. As for byproducts (essential oils, therapeutic byproducts and orange pulp), the 10 % tax continues, but they were exempted from the 40 % tariff.
This is good news for the sector, since it faces a slow pace of OJ shipments, especially to Europe. The European Union has been purchasing less than the usual. Therefore, the reduction of costs to send the product to the US market may favor sales of the Brazilian product, compensating the smaller demand from Europe.
Sales of oranges in the in natura market moved at a slow pace in late October. Many consumers were waiting to receive wages in November, leading agents to reduce trades. Therefore, prices, which were moving up in previous weeks, dropped at the end of the month.
According to data from Cepea, pear oranges quotations in the in natura market moved down 0.19 % between Oct. 27 and 30 compared to the previous, closing at BRL 61.47 per 40.8-kg box. Concerning lima oranges, prices averaged BRL 84.13 per box, 7.19 % up.
As for the tahiti lime, prices decreased due to the low demand and to a slight supply increase. The average was at BRL 40.35 per 27.2-kg box in late October, downing 32.39 % compared to the period before. Quotations of the tahiti lime to export have averaged BRL 46.15 per box, 26.56 % down.
At the industry, agents surveyed by Cepea say that orange prices were firm at the end of the month, at around BRL 50.00 per 40.8 kg box. Orange juice sales to the international market were moving at a slow pace. Thus, the sector waits for shipments results in October and November to have better indications of the demand from abroad.
The first 90 days of the 2025/26 season confirm a scenario of adjustments in the exporting market of orange juice and citrus byproducts in Brazil. In spite of the tax exemption on the Brazilian orange juice in the United States, the performance of exports from July to September 2025 was below that verified in the same period last season.
According to data from Comex Stat, the total volume of juice exported in the partial of the 2025/26 crop to all destinations totaled 199.7 thousand tons (volume equivalent to concentrate juice – 66º Brix), for a decrease of 4 % compared to the same period in the year before, while the revenue dropped 15 %, to USD 751.3 million. The income decrease is attributed to low international prices because of high global supply.
For the first time in several years, shipments to the United States and to the European Union were equal, with roughly 48 % of participation each (in volume). The 13 % increase of sales to the US highlights the dependence of the country on the Brazilian juice. Exports to the European Union, in turn, dropped 8 %, influenced by the demand decrease after high prices and quality problems verified in the crop before. The result was a balance between these two important destinations.
Besides the international scenario, the low volume of domestic inventories in this beginning of the season, along with the small supply of the fruit, also influenced the decrease of shipments.
From this month on, with the intensification of the harvesting in Brazil and the increase of processing activities at the industry, shipments are likely to move up, specially to the European Union, which may replenish inventories.
The Southeastern region in Brazil, especially citrus areas in São Paulo, Paraná and part of Minas Gerais, registered rains in the first week of spring. Although this scenario brings optimism, since it favours the upcoming blossoming, strong winds caused fruit droppage. Players surveyed by Cepea say that the region of Avaré (São Paulo) was one of the most affected areas.
The return of the rainfall is extremely important for the 2026/27 blossoming to be in the normal standard, which was not verified last year – after a warm and dry winter, rains returned more consistently after October, which delayed the current crop.
The intensification of the fruit droppage is the main factor that led Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) to decrease the estimate for the 2025/26 season. The second report, released in early September, indicated that the production may reach 306.74 million 40.8 kg boxes in the citrus belt (São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro), 2.5 % less (or -7.86 million boxes) than that indicated in May.
The current report confirms that the fruit droppage is more critical than what had been projected previously. Some areas register losses that are close to 10 %, while others face a percentage up to 45 %. On average, the fruit droppage rate is at 22 %, two percentage points more than the initial forecast.
The Huanglongbing greening (citrus greening disease) hits 47.63 % of the citrus belt. The number of contaminated plants rose 7.4 % this year, reaching roughly 100 thousand (209 thousand were evaluated).
Ending stocks
Orange juice ending stocks (by June/26) may recover in the 2025/26 season, after four consecutive crops at very low volume.
CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released a report in early September about the 2024/25 season: inventories of frozen concentrate orange juice – FCOJ (66º Brix) totaled 146.3 thousand tons, 25.3 % more than in the previous crop. Although it is still low, the volume surprised players, since the fruit supply is scarce, leading orange prices to record levels and imposing difficulties for the industry to produce juice with good ratio. Both restricted quality and high values limited sales to the international market in the last season. According to data from Secex/Comexstat, the volume exported in 2024/25 was at 776.8 thousand tons, downing 22.6 % in relation to the crop before and the smallest since 1997, when the series has started.
Cepea calculations indicate that, due to the progress of the 2025/26 season and the improvement of the juice quality (since pear oranges will join the crushing), inventories may finish the season (June/26) close or higher than 200 thousand tons. If confirmed, it will be the first time in a half decade that the sector will leave the critical volume behind (below 150 thousand tons). However, in order for inventories to reach this level, the consumption needs to return to volumes before 2024/25, the juice productivity needs to be on the average over the last five crops (278 40.8-kg boxes per juice ton) and the industry needs to process at least 260 million boxes.
Total orange production1 is updated at 306.74 million boxes
The first update of the 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on September 10, 2025, by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with professor (retired) from FCAV/Unesp2, is 306.74 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90-pound box). Compared with the May estimate, the crop season is expected to yield 7.86 million fewer boxes, a decline of 2.5 %, due to a higher projected rate of premature fruit drop. Analysing by maturity group, the early-season varieties decrease by approximately 6.1 %, the mid-season (Pera) by 1.2 %, and the late-season varieties by 1.6 %. It is also estimated that approximately 25.84 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
According to Climatempo Meteorologia, from May to August 2025 the average accumulated rainfall in the citrus belt was 94 millimeters, which corresponds to a 33 % deficit in relation to the historical average (1991- 2020) …
Please download the complete forecast here.
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera, Valencia, Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of Exact Sciences, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
Due to the cold wave in the South, Southeast and in some areas of the Central-West in Brazil in late June, some citrus producing regions in São Paulo, Paraná and in the south of Minas Gerais registered frosts on June 26. In spite of that, only some areas were affected and producers are still evaluating if there are impacts.
Players surveyed by Cepea say that major concerns are about the tahiti lime, since low temperatures may affect the fruit color in this period of limited supply. As for ponkan tangerine, frosts in this period can accelerate fruit droppage. Moreover, the cold weather may also affect the colour of the fruit.
Prices
The proximity of the new crop continues to press down orange quotations in the natura market – the supply of early fruits is higher. Prices of pear oranges in the in natura market were at BRL 60.48 per 40.8 kg box, on tree, between June 23 and 27, downing 4.1 % compared to that in the previous period.
As for tahiti lime, the price average from June 23-27 is BRL 40.16 per 27.2 kg box, moving down 1.9 % in the same comparison.
Florida
The report released in June by the USDA indicates that the 2024/25 orange crop in Florida is likely to total 12 million 40.8 kg boxes, upping 370 thousand boxes in relation to that released in the May report, but still 33.5 % smaller compared to the season before (2023/24).
Exports
Brazilian shipments of orange juice in the partial of the current season (2024/25 – from July/24 to May/25) continue below the volume registered in the same period of previous crops.
So far, Brazil shipped 730.948 thousand tons of OJ (equivalent to concentrate juice – 66º Brix), which is 22.4 % smaller than that in the same period of the season before (from July/23 to May/24) – data from Comexstat. It is worth noting that, in the first 11 months of previous crops, the volume was close to 1 million tons. The combination of lower quality and high prices have been limiting exports.
The revenue, in turn, continues to grow, boosted by high prices paid for the commodity, especially at the beginning of the season. In the partial of the 2024/25 crop, the revenue has totaled USD 3.285 billion, 33.1 % up in relation to that verified in the same period of the 2023/24 season.
The „2025/2026 Tree Inventory and Orange Crop Forecast“ presents the results of the eleventh survey on the tree inventory of São Paulo and west- southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt carried out by Fundecitrus in cooperation with full professor from the department of Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp from August 2024 to May 2025. The report is based on full remapping and in-field data collection from August 2024 to May 2025 and reflects a notable rebound in orange production following years of challenges …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com
After Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released the estimate in May – of a higher orange output than what was expected by agents, at 314.6 million 40.8-kg boxes, – the sector was waiting for a better definition of contracts between the industry and producers to deliver 2025/26 fruits. However, contracts are likely to be closed only from mid-June on.
As the production may be concentrated in the second blossoming, the harvesting can be intensified only after July. Therefore, for now, the small volume of fruits that the industry has been receiving and/or may receive in the coming weeks refers to previous contracts or to fruits traded in the spot market. In this scenario, prices of the orange delivered at the industry registered slight changes in May.
Concerning fruits that have been delivered to the industry, players say that they have shown better quality – which means that a smaller volume of oranges has been necessary to produce juice. This positive scenario, in general, is related to weather conditions, which favored the production.
The US has imposed 10 % tariffs on Brazilian orange juice exports, while the majority of Mexican orange juice exports are likely to be USMCA compliant and therefore tariff-exempt.
This scenario creates opportunities and threats for orange juice exporters in both countries. On the one hand, burdened with a 10 % tariff, Brazilian exporters’ share of the US orange juice market could be under threat from tariff-free Mexican exporters.
On the other hand, if demand for Mexican orange juice soars among US importers as a result of US tariffs making Brazilian orange juice exports more expensive, then a greater percentage of total Mexican orange juice production could be redirected away from the domestic market and into the US. This would reduce Mexico’s domestic supply, which could result in increased prices for domestic orange juice consumers, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
Rory Gopsill, Senior Consumer Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Avoiding price inflation is likely to be a priority for the Mexican Government as well as domestic orange juice brands and retailers, because Mexican consumers are already under financial pressure.”
According to GlobalData’s Q1 2025 Global Consumer survey, 56 % of Mexican consumers are extremely or quite concerned about their personal financial situation, and 60 % are extremely or quite concerned about the impact of the cost-of-living crisis on their financial situation. Moreover, 47 % of Mexicans are switching to cheaper brand alternatives to deal with rising prices, and 38 % are switching to cheaper retailers. Mexican orange juice brands and the retailers selling them will be wary of increasing prices for these reasons.
However, greater collaboration between Brazil and Mexico could result in controlling the balance of trade between the two countries’ US orange juice exports, and partially avoid the US tariffs.
Annually, the US consumes a greater volume of juice than any other country in the world. In 2024, the US consumed 5.3 billion litres of juice, considerably more than the runner-up, China, which consumed 1.4 billion litres in the same year, according to GlobalData’s Segment Insights Database, accessed May 2025. Figures from the Observatory of Economic Complexity, accessed May 2025, confirmed that the US exported $633 million worth of fruit juice in 2023 and imported $3.44 billion in the same year. As these figures demonstrate, the US is heavily reliant on fruit juice imports to meet domestic demand, especially orange juice, which is the most consumed fruit juice in the US, according to the USDA.
Brazil is the largest exporter of orange juice to the US, sourcing 75 % ($570 million) of the US’ non-frozen/spirited/fermented orange juice in 2023, and 44 % ($203 million) of the US’ frozen non-fermented/spirited orange juice in 2023. For Mexico, these figures were 16 % and 49 % respectively, making it the second largest exporter of orange juice to the US, according to The Observatory of Economic Complexity, accessed May 2025.
A potential solution to the challenges confronting both Brazil’s and Mexico’s orange juice exports to the US could be for Brazil to sell more orange juice to Mexican producers, who could then use it to produce juice blends that are exported to US markets. This is because, according to Fresh Plaza (2025), 60 % of juice blends can originate from third countries and still be USMCA compliant.
A product is more likely to be USMCA compliant if it is manufactured in the US, Mexico, or Canada, and made of materials sourced in these three countries. Mexico devoted more hectares to orange cultivation than any other country (except for India, Brazil, and China) in 2024, according to GlobalData’s Crop Area Production and Yield database. It would make sense for Mexican manufacturers to convert home grown oranges into orange juice for domestic consumption to maximise supply chain and administrative efficiencies.
Gopsill adds: “Brazilian exporters could mitigate losses in their share of the US import market by increasing the volumes of orange juice they sell to Mexican producers. Simultaneously, Mexican producers could use the Brazilian oranges to produce USMCA compliant orange juice and sell it to the US without burning through domestic orange juice supplies and increasing domestic orange juice prices, which would be a positive result for both nations.”
Total orange production1 for the 2024-2025 crop season ended at 230.87 million boxes
The 2024-2025 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with full professor from FCAV/Unesp2, concluded with 230.87 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows:
- 7.63 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin e Rubi early-season varieties;
- 15.60 million boxes of Valência Americana, Seleta, Pineapple e Alvorada early-season varieties;
- 74.70 million boxes of Pera Rio mid-season variety;
- 75.99 million boxes of Valência e Valência Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
- 26.95 million boxes of Natal late-season variety.
Of the total, about 14.94 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
This season production was 0.65% below the initial estimate released in May 2024 (232.38 million boxes) and 24.85% below the previous crop season, which totaled 307.22 million boxes, a production level in line with the historical average. The 2024-2025 crop was confirmed as the second smallest in the last 37 years, considered atypical due to adverse weather conditions, marked by dry weather, high temperatures, the extremely late and expressive fourth bloom, along with the incidence of greening …
Please download the complete forecast here.
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
The low quality of orange juice and the limited demand due to high price levels have resulted in sharp price drops in the international market in this early 2025. The May/25 contract at ICE Futures dropped 20.6 % in the partial of March and 42.8 % in the accumulated of 2025, at 276.45 cents of dollar per pound on March 12.
Players surveyed by Cepea say that, in early March, the orange sugar/acid ratio was below the desirable for crushing activities. Moreover, the excess of limonin, due to a heterogeneous harvesting, has also been affecting the final product, since it increases the juice bitterness, reducing the acceptance of major consumers, such as the United States and the European Union.
Lower prices at ICE Futures contrast with the current scenario of orange juice stocks. CitrusBR released a report on March 10 indicating that inventories finished 2024 at 351,483 tons (converted to FCOJ), downing 24.2 % compared to 2023 and the lowest amount since the beginning of the series.
As for the domestic market, the low quality at this end-of-season period pressed down values paid by the industry.
Weather
The warm weather and the low volume of rainfall in São Paulo state since mid-February concerned citrus growers in early March. Many of them fear that the weather may affect both orange and tahiti lime in this end of the 2024/25 season and the citrus production in the next crop (2025/26).
Prices of oranges to the industry dropped significantly in late February, due to the low quality of fruits and to international decreases of orange juice quotations. From February 24-27, for instance, the price average was at BRL 74.29 per 40.8-kilo box, downing 6.55 % compared to that in the week before and 16 % in February.
Players surveyed by Cepea say that the orange quality has reduced since the beginning of the year, with lower brix-acid ratio compared to what is desirable for processing activities, and this has been affecting the quality of the orange juice.
This scenario of low quality, in turn, is related to the fact that the 2024/25 had registered several blossoming cycles, resulting in the harvest of distinct stages of fruits (ripe and unripe), which affects the standardisation of oranges sent to processing activities.
Impacts on export
The lower orange supply and the limited quality of the fruits have been limiting orange juice shipments. According to data from Comex Stat, exports of not-from-concentrate (NFC) OJ (NCM 20091200) have presented a lower performance compared to that verified in the season before. In the partial of the 2024/25 crop (from July/24 to January/25), the volume of juice shipped by Brazil totaled 1.09 million tons, 3.4 % smaller than in the same period last season.
Tahiti lime shipments
Brazilian exports of tahiti lime continue moving at a good pace, after reaching a record volume in 2024. In January, Brazil shipped 17.15 thousand tons of tahiti lime, a record for the month and 18.1 % up compared to January/24 – data from Secex. Revenue totaled USD 14.826 million, for an increase of 13.4 % in the same comparison.
The increase of the orange size, especially fruits from the fourth blossoming, and the decrease of the fruit drop rate boosted the new estimate for the 2024/25 output compared to the previous projection.
Data released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in February indicate that the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) may harvest 228.52 million 40.8-kg boxes, moving down 1.7 % (or 3.86 million boxes) compared to the first estimate, released in May/24, but upping 2.4 % (or 5.38 million boxes) in relation to the report from December/24.
Besides the good development of the fourth blossoming, Fundecitrus indicates that the rainfall has favored the production.
The higher supply against the previous crop brings a certain relief, but the sector still faces the low quality of the fruits and the low industrial productivity.
This scenario of higher supply and lower quality has been pressing quotations down. For the industry, which has been purchasing fruits at BRL 82.88/box, on average, in the second week of February, the decrease is by 3.63 % against the week before.
Florida
The orange production in Florida has also been facing challenges. The USDA indicated this month that the production in the state is likely to reach 11.5 million boxes, downing 500 thousand boxes compared to the estimate from January and a decrease of 36 % against the crop before.
Even with the return of rainfall in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro from October/24 on, the scenario for the 2025/26 season continues uncertain. Flowers that opened after the rains were considered satisfactory, however, the development of the crop still depends on weather conditions during the season.
The 2024/25 crop is estimated at 223.14 million 40.8-kilo boxes of oranges, for a decrease of 27.4 % compared to the previous season (2023/24) – data from Fundecitrus.
Weather adversities have been hampering the production for five consecutive seasons, which resulted in restricted inventories of juice.
Cepea calculations indicate that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the 2024/25 crop, ending this season technically zero. Thus, a very positive 2025/26 season will be necessary to have at least a slight recovery.
Not even a decrease of exports in the 2024/25 season will be enough to compensate for the reduction in the volume of fruit processed, which will maintain the demand from the industry at high levels.
Moreover, Florida has been registering a decrease in inventories and may need to import more inputs from Brazil, which helps to sustain quotations in the domestic market. Besides this scenario of limited production and stocks in Brazil, data released on December 10 by the USDA indicate that the 2024/25 orange crop may total 12 million 40.8-kg boxes, downing 20 % (or 3 million boxes) compared to the report released in October (15 million boxes). Besides the citrus greening disease, the production drop is also related to the hurricane Milton in Florida in early October 2024.
For 2025, the conditions reported in the Brazilian citrus grove may support prices throughout the year.
Orange prices hit records in 2024. Values of the 40.8 kg box were above BRL 100 in the in natura market. Increases are explained by the firm demand from part of the industry (since players have low orange juice stocks) and the restricted orange supply, because of the limited production.
The weather in the citrus belt was predominantly dry and with high temperatures during the development of the crop. Although prices allowed good profits to citrus growers, the low productivity boosted costs (which had already been high due to the citrus greening disease). Margins may be reduced in areas where the production dropped significantly, despite record prices of the fruit. As for the tahiti lime, quotations were at low levels in the first semester and increased in the second part of the year, because of the offseason period, which is a typical movement.
As a result, due to the limited orange supply and the high demand from the industry, values operated at record levels, in real terms (prices were deflated by the IGP-DI). In October, the price average paid by the industry surpassed BRL 90 per 40.8 kg box. It is worth noting that 2023/24 trades started early, in January, with quotations at around BRL 38 per box. Since inventories at the industry had been limited, the demand in the spot market increased, and prices hit records in real terms, surpassing BRL 100/box in November.
São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro are likely to harvest 223.14 million 40.8 kilo boxes of oranges in the 2024/25 season, for an increase of 7.36 million boxes (or + 3.4 %) compared to the last projection, released in September, but still 9.24 million boxes less (or – 4 %) in relation to the first estimate (May 2024). Therefore, the current season may be 27.4 % smaller than the previous (2023/24), when 307.22 million boxes were harvested – data from Fundecitrus.
The smaller production was already expected in 2024/25, due to unfavourable weather conditions and to the citrus greening disease.
The current scenario is: very limited orange juice stocks in Brazil. Thus, in order to guarantee the global OJ supply, the next production (2025/26) would need to increase in both Brazil and Florida.
As for the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union, it can favour shipments of lime, lemon and orange juice, but can also open a direct channel to receive these fruits from Spain. Still, the agreement is very important and brings good perspectives for the mid and long-terms.
The possibility of a small orange supply was reinforced due to the decrease of the number of companies operating in São Paulo state in late November. In the last two crops, when the supply was already below the normal standard, major processing companies started to reduce the pace of activities only between January and February.
In January 2024, only six plants were operating, against tem in the same period last year. At the end of November, there were seven units in activity. Players surveyed by Cepea say that there might still be a certain volume of raw material for the industry to continue processing up to February 2025, but March is still uncertain.
To make matters worse, the low supply is being verified together with low quality. According to players surveyed by Cepea, the brix-acid ratio is unsatisfactory, concerning both producers and players from the industry, since it affects the efficiency of processing activities and the quality of the final product.
The lower juice yield is especially linked to the scarcity of rains during the development of the fruits, which reduced the amount of juice in the fruit. As a result, more oranges are necessary to produce the same amount of juice.
Although it is the offseason period for the tahiti lime, quotations decreased in early November. The downward trend is related to both the size and the quality of the fruit, which are below expected by the sector. However, it is worth noting that price levels are still high.
According to data from Cepea, tahiti lime prices averaged BRL 95.59 per 27.2-kg box in mid-November, downing 16.17 % against late October.
It is worth noting that the price average for the tahiti lime was at BRL 117.94/box last month, 72.2 % more than in September and moving up 71 % against October last year, in nominal terms.
Season in Florida
The 2023/24 orange season finished in September in Florida. The Citrus Department of that state in the Unites States indicated in October that local juice stocks, as observed in Brazil, finished the season at low levels.
The limited orange supply has been frequent in the US, considering that the country has become majorly an orange juice importer since the advance of greening in Florida.
It is worth noting that Brazil is the major orange juice supplier for the US market. The fact that the Brazilian industry faced both low supply and high prices in the 2023/24 season (which limited exports) might have prevented a recovery of stocks in Florida.
Regular rains and mild weather were registered in late October in the citrus belt of São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro, the biggest orange producer for the juice industry. This scenario has helped to bring a relief for trees that were affected by the lack of rains and high temperatures.
2024/25 season
Even with the return of rainfall, the current orange crop has presented low quality. Still, rains in October may improve the quality of fruits that are still on the trees. It is worth noting that the orange crop has started in June this year and may finish between December and January/25. As for tahiti lime (the main season starts between November and December), weather conditions may favor the development, since fruits are currently below the standard.
Exports
The revenue obtained by Brazilian exporters with orange juice shipments in the partial of the 2024/25 crop (from July/24 to September/24) totaled USD 905.3 million, for an increase of 42.3 % compared to the same period of the last season (USD 636.1 million), according to Comex Stat.
The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil, in turn, continues decreasing, as it has been verified since the 2023/24 crop. From July to September/24, Brazil shipped 207.5 thousand tons of orange juice, downing 27 % in relation to the same period in 2023.
The lower volume exported is linked to the limited supply. Weather adversities have been hampering the production for five consecutive seasons, which resulted in restricted inventories of juice.
High temperatures in São Paulo state in early October reinforced producers’ concerns, since this scenario can affect both fruits that are on the trees (from the current season, 2023/24) and the production of the next crop (2024/25), especially non-irrigated areas. Therefore, in mid-October, citrus growers were waiting for the rainfall in major producing regions.
So far, the biggest challenge for the current season (2023/24) has been the fact that fruits have wilted, which affects directly the quality, according to players surveyed by Cepea. In normal conditions, this quality loss would press quotations down; however, due to the limited supply this season, prices remain firm.
As for the 2024/25 crop, scenarios are distinct between irrigated and non-irrigated areas. In irrigated regions in São Paulo state, the fruit development is more advanced, but producers were still concerned with high temperatures.
On the other hand, most trees in non-irrigated areas have not blossomed yet. Thus, the return of rains is essential to mitigate the lack of soil humidity and encourage the blossoming.
The 2024/25 orange crushing was moving at a good pace at juice processing companies in São Paulo state at the end of September. According to players, the pear orange has been the most processed variety; however, the harvesting pace has been progressing, and the participation of late fruits (such as valencia and natal) has been increasing.
The harvesting is more advanced due to the higher share of fruits from the first blossoming. Data from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) indicate that 64 % of oranges produced in this season account for the first blossoming, higher than the last four crops (36 % of the fruits, at most). Thus, the crushing pace is likely to reduce earlier this year – the second blossoming considers fruits that will be harvested from October on, according to Fundecitrus.
In addition to that, greening (HLB – Huanglongbing), above-average temperatures and the dry weather also accelerate the harvesting. As for greening, one of the symptoms of the disease is the early fruit drop, and producers may harvest in advance to avoid losses. Weather conditions, in turn, accelerate the ripening and may result in early fruit drop.
The share of late fruits in processing activities is likely to be higher in October, but the amount of pear oranges allocated to juice production can still be relevant.
Stocks
Cepea calculations, based on data released by CitrusBR on Sept. 19, indicate that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the current crop (2024/25), ending this season technically zero. Not even the forecast of improvement in industrial yield (due to below-average rainfall) and limited exports will be enough to compensate for the decrease in the volume of fruit processed.
According to CitrusBR, the stocked quantity of the commodity was 116.7 thousand tons at the end of 2023/24 crop (on June 30, 2024), being 37.7 % higher than that on the same period last year, but the third lowest in history (the series has started in 1988/89).
Most part of São Paulo state registered high temperatures in early September. This scenario brought concerns for citrus growers, who may face another year of significant heat waves.
Climatempo says that heat waves in September have become more common in most part of Brazil; however, they have been more intense and are lasting longer.
2024/25 CROP – São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro may harvest 215.78 million 40.8-kg boxes in the 2024/25 orange season, according to data released by Fundecitrus on September 10. The volume may be 30 % less than in the crop before, which registered average production, and below the first projection, of 232.38 million boxes.
The decrease is related to the smaller fruit size, due to the dry and warm weather. The weather also accelerated the harvesting pace, since it influenced the ripening. More than half of the crop can be harvested in this dry weather scenario because rains are forecast only for late September.
The volume of rainfall was small in almost all areas in the citrus belt, except in the southwestern region of São Paulo. Fundecitrus indicates that the only area where the production is expected to increase in this season is the southwest of SP – the harvest may be 19 % higher than in 2023/24. In other regions, the production decrease can be between 28 % and 60 %.
Recent wildfires in several areas in São Paulo state concerned players. According to data gathered by Cepea, wildfires hit some citrus areas, especially the central-north of the state; however, this scenario may not bring significant impacts on the volume of fruits available in the market.
According to players surveyed by Cepea, the areas hit by wildfires are small and the landowners were able to control them rapidly. The rainfall in some areas also helped to control the problem. Damages were more significant for other crops, especially sugarcane.
Market
Prices for the pear orange have been at historical levels this year both in the in natura market and in the industrial segment. The limited supply of the current season and the firm demand from the industry explain this scenario. The price average was at BRL 100.00 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, at the end of August.
However, the cold wave in São Paulo state in late August led consumers to be away from trades in the orange market. This scenario was reinforced by the end-of-the month period. On the other hand, the limited supply and high prices of industrial contracts continued to sustain quotations in the in natura market.
The 2024/25 crop-year for orange juice exports (from July/24 to June/25) has started in July and shipments, which had been moving down in 2023/24, continued to move at a slow pace. This scenario was already expected, since the supply is limited in Brazil, due to the confirmation of a smaller orange production in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro. At the same time, Brazilian imports of in natura orange and tangerine rose in July.
Orange juice exports
According to Comex Stat, Brazil shipped 53.4 thousand tons of orange juice in July, downing 38 % compared to the same month in 2023. The limited supply boosted quotations. As a result, the revenue totaled USD 198.9 million in July/24, for an increase of 9 % in relation to July/23.
NFC orange juice shipments amounted 164.2 thousand tons in July/24, and the revenue totaled USD 96.45 million, upping 3 % and 55 % against July/23. As for FCOJ exports, the total was 23.6 thousand tons (-59 %), and the revenue was USD 102.4 million (-15 % in one year).
In natura citrus fruits imports
In natura orange imports are at record volumes this year, boosted by the low domestic supply and high prices of national fruits. According to data from Comex Stat, from January to July, 34.8 thousand tons were imported, 87 % up in relation to the same period last year. Expenses amounted USD 24.7 million, 72 % more this year against the previous.
As for tangerines, the volume purchased by Brazil in the partial of 2024 totaled 14.5 thousand tons, 96 % more than in the period from January to July last year. Expenses are at USD 15.65 million (+89 %).
Domestic market
Quotations of citrus fruits surveyed by Cepea may continue to increase in August, sustained by expectations of a limited supply for all varieties. This scenario can be verified despite the orange season peak.
The orange harvesting is moving at a good pace in the citrus belt, but most part of the produce has been allocated to the juice industry. Factories continue with high prices to purchase the raw material, leading many producers that typically operate in the in natura market to allocate oranges for processing activities. Therefore, not even the low demand, due to mild temperatures, was able to press down quotations.
Due to the presence of greening (Huanglongbing) in São Paulo and to the recent imbalance between supply and demand for oranges, both producers and processors have been looking for options to increase the planted area in regions outside the citrus belt, without the phytosanitary risks in SP. There have been reports of new plantings in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais (out of Triângulo Mineiro) and Goiás, areas that are not typical citrus producers.
Investments are indeed not recommended depending on the region of São Paulo state, although major processing units are located there. Many areas have high incidence of greening, which hinders new plantings. According to data from Fundecitrus, 38 % of the trees in the citrus belt had symptoms of the disease in 2023, the sixth year in a row of greening increase. It is worth noting that new plants tend to be more vulnerable to the disease, increasing costs with prevention and chances of infection.
Therefore, plantings outside SP are an option. The land availability is higher, reducing costs, and there is the absence of greening and other diseases. Moreover, the industrial productivity can be higher than in SP, due to the warmer weather, which is positive for processing companies.
On the other hand, the fact that the areas are unknown for the citrus activity concerns players, since this scenario would demand adjustments in management and irrigation, which cannot be necessarily the same as those verified in SP.
Although these regions are warmer than SP (which can favor the productivity), it tends to affect the development of the trees. Additionally, costs with freight can be higher because of logistical issues.
It is worth noting that these investments in other regions are new and, therefore, they may not affect the orange supply in the short-term – it can be verified in roughly three years, when plants start producing.
Market
The supply of citrus fruits in the in natura market in São Paulo may be low in July. As for oranges, the lower availability has been verified since the middle of last year and it is also attributed to the high demand from the industry – it is worth noting that juice stocks at processing companies may finish the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) at low levels.
Players surveyed by Cepea say that even producers who typically sell to the in natura market are focusing on sending the product to the industry this season, since prices are more attractive and there are some advantages compared to the in natura market.
The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 378 million 90-pound boxes (MBx) – standard reference, equivalent to 15.42 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of 7.3 percent compared to previous Post estimate (408 million boxes or 16.5 MMT), primarily due to poor weather conditions that culminated in a more severe drought, as well as impacts from greening. Meanwhile, Post revised the orange weight forecast to 165 grams/5.82 ounces in MY 2023/24, 4.2 percent heavier than Post previous estimate of 158 grams due to the lower production and consequent more room for the fruits to grow. Post revised the total forecast related to the Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent production for MY 2023/24 at 1.06 MMT, a decrease of 8.62 percent vis-à-vis the Post estimate for MY 2022/23 (1.16 MMT), due to downward expected availability of fruit for processing provoked by drought, extremely high temperatures and increase of greening incidence …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
After two months of price drops, orange values are expected to increase again in the in natura market in June. Processing activities are likely to be intensified, since more companies have started to operate, limiting the supply of fruits in the in natura market. Players say that, although the demand is usually lower in this period, since the weather is colder, the supply in the in natura market is expected to be smaller than the demand.
Orange prices already increased in the second fortnight of May, after the release of estimates of a lower output by Fundecitrus. Thus, many producers stopped harvesting fruits for the in natura market, preferring to meet the demand from the industry.
In May, the average for the pear orange was BRL 80.22 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, downing 11.21 % in relation to April/24.
Although prices dropped from April to May, they are still at high levels. In addition to the forecast of a small crop, low stocks of orange juice have been boosting the industrial demand for fruits.
Tahiti lime
The supply is expected to continue limited in June, due to the below-average volume of rainfall. Colder temperatures have concerned producers, since this scenario may result in characteristics that purchasers disapprove, especially in the international market. In May, the price average was at BRL 32.62 per 27-kilo box, harvested, 18.96% up compared to April.
Ponkan tangerine
Prices may move up in June, especially from the second fortnight on, when the supply in São Paulo tends to decrease. Moreover, the fruit can be a good alternative for orange and other fruits, which are presenting higher quotations. On the other hand, the demand is likely to decrease due to the cold weather, limiting more significant price rises.
The dry and warm weather in São Paulo concerned citrus growers in early May. They say that fruits were falling from the trees, a scenario that is reinforced in areas with high incidence of HLB (Huanglongbing, or greening).
Growers collected fruits that fell, allocating them to crushing activities, although this process is more expensive than the regular harvest. Still, as prices at factories are high, this fact ends up being advantageous for both citrus growers and the industry, which needs to absorb as more fruits as possible. It is worth noting that higher temperatures and below-average rains since the middle of the second semester last year may result in a lower volume to harvest in 2024/25.
The heat wave and the lack of rains also affect the quality of oranges, reducing its attractiveness in the market.
As for the tahiti lime, the dry weather started to affect the development and the quality of the peel. Some producers were concerned and started harvesting, aiming to collect fruits that are prematurely falling to send them immediately to the industry.
The orange processing of the 2024/25 season may be intensified in May. Three of the major processors and other two small companies (tool) have been operating at the moment. At least three more units are expected to start activities still in early May.
In the same period of 2023, only three units were operating, and a fourth company started crushing in the second week of the month. This scenario indicates a higher intensity of processing activities this year. Although current volumes are not high yet, players from the industry say that some companies have started operating in order to avoid fruit losses in a year of low supply.
Prices at companies remain firm, reaching BRL 70.00 per box for fruits of the new season. In cases of higher volumes, values can be even higher.
Due to the increase of industrial activities, the downward trend of orange prices in the in natura market, verified in April, is likely to slow down, since producers will have the industry as an option to sell the product. In April, the average for the in natura pear orange, of BRL 91.28 per 40.8-kilo box, in tree, was 3 % lower than in March.
The demand for oranges, in turn, is expected to decrease in May, because of the supply of ponkan tangerine. Moreover, possible milder temperatures in the Brazilian autumn tend to reduce the consumption.
Tahiti lime
The rainfall favoured the development of the tahiti lime in São Paulo state, increasing the supply.
Total orange production for the 2023-2024 crop season ended at 307.22 million boxes1
The 2023-2024 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors from FEA- RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – concluded with 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows:
- 58.09 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
- 18.51 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada early-season varieties;
- 97.62 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
- 105.20 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
- 27.80 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.
Of the total, about 27.82 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
The season´s production was 2.22% lower in comparison to the previous crop, which reached 314.21 million boxes and was 0.69% below the initial forecast made in May 2023 …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil in the partial of the 2023/24 season (from July/23 to March/24) was below that registered in the same period of the previous crop. According to players from the industry, the low availability of the commodity in the Brazilian market may be limiting shipments. As for prices of the juice sold to the international market, they moved up.
The 2023/24 season in Brazil is expected to finish (in June/24) with reduced orange juice stocks at the industry. As a result, some players are unwilling to export large amounts in order to avoid having zero stocks by the end of 2023/24.
According to data from Comex Stat, Brazil exported 812.2 thousand tons of orange juice in the partial of 2023/24, for a decrease of 7.7 % compared to the same period last season. The revenue totaled USD 2.08 billion, moving up 23 % this season in relation to the previous and close to the total registered in the crop before (USD 2.14 billion up to June/23).
OJ shipments to the European Union amounted 419.9 thousand tons from July/23 to March/24, downing 7.7 % against the same period of 2022/23. The income, in turn, rose 26 %, at USD 1.1 billion. To the US, exports dropped 4.4 % in relation to that in 2022/23, at 265.7 thousand tons. The income verified between July/23 and March/24 was USD 667.1 million, 18 % up against the same period last season.
Market in Brazil
The market of the tahiti lime in São Paulo closed March with firm prices. Players surveyed by Cepea say that this is related to the low supply, since rains affected the harvest. As a result, the monthly price average was BRL 31.17 per 27-kilo box, harvested, 55 % up in relation to February.
As for the orange, prices also closed March at higher levels. The supply was low (due to the offseason period and to the good demand from the industry) and the demand in the in natura market was firm, because of high temperatures. Therefore, the price average was BRL 93.56 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, upping 7 % in relation to February.
Harvesting activities for ponkan tangerine have started in March in São Paulo state, but the volumes available are still limited. According to players surveyed by Cepea, the supply is expected to increase significantly from April onwards, when more fruits hit the ideal ripening stage.
First tangerines harvested come from irrigated orange groves, where the development is more advanced, such as in the north of São Paulo state and Minas Gerais.
The season is expected to continue up to mid-August, and the volume harvested may be similar to that registered in the last crop, according to agents surveyed by Cepea. As for the quality, it has been considered satisfactory, in spite of some cases of Alternaria citri, which have been controlled successfully.
The current low supply of ponkan tangerine has been keeping quotations attractive to producers. From March 25-28, the price average was at BRL 95.53 per 27-kilo box, on tree, 36.4 % up compared to the same period in 2023, in nominal terms.
The holidays of Good Friday and Easter, the end-of-the-month period and lower temperatures in late March have limited the demand for oranges. However, prices continue to move up due to the restricted supply. As for the tahiti lime, despite the low consumption, rains and the slow pace of the harvest limited the supply, boosting quotations.
Brazilian orange juice processors finished 2023 with low stocks. A report released by CitrusBR in March indicates that the volume was 463.94 thousand tons (equivalent to concentrate juice) on December 31, 2023, being 6.7 % higher than that on the same day last year, but the second lowest in history (the series has started in 2011).
Considering that the industry is practically in the offseason period, and, therefore, they have been using stocks to supply the international market, the stocked volume is likely to decrease month after month. This scenario brings concerns about the global supply, since Brazil is the biggest world exporter, and, although there are no forecasts for the next crop (2024/25) yet, the orange production may not increase compared to the current season.
CitrusBR has not projected the ending stocks for the orange juice industry this season. However, data from Cepea indicate that stocks may finish the season higher than in the previous, especially because of the decrease in exports.
Taking 2023/24 initial stocks, of 84.75 thousand tons (CitrusBR), processing of 267 million boxes (discounting the 40 million boxes of the in natura market of the total volume projected by Fundecitrus), the same juice yield of the previous crop and the 6 % decrease of exports (from July/23 to February/24), the amount in stocks by the end of the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) would be only 94.5 thousand tons, 11 % more than in the same period last year.
In spite of the projection of an increase compared to the last season, it is worth noting that 2022/23 ending stocks were the lowest in recent history.
Production
The rainfall in orange producing areas in São Paulo state has been favoring the 2024/25 season. Players surveyed by Cepea say that the good humidity has been positive for the fruits, allowing to anticipate the harvest of early varieties, which have started to be offered in the in natura market in February and may be intensified in March.
Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) announced the exclusive launch in the French market of its new fresh fruit juice brand, Montebelo Brasil, in collaboration with Laiterie de Saint-Denis-de-l’Hôtel (LSDH) for commercialisation, bottling and distribution. This initiative aims to establish Montebelo Brasil as a market reference among fresh (or chilled) fruit juices in France, while ensuring traceability of oranges, from Brazilian groves to selected retail shelves.
Inspired by its eponymous Brazilian plantation, certified by the Rainforest Alliance, the development of the Montebelo Brasil brandis part of LDC’s strategic vision to extend its reach further downstream in the value chain, while offering distribution solutions to its customers and partners. It also reflects LDC’s focus to further diversify its Juice Platform portfolio with sustainable, traceable and high-quality products directly to end consumers.
“Our ambition for this project is twofold: to offer a 100 % natural product while ensuring traceability of the oranges, thereby establishing a connection between LDC as citrus producer in Brazil and the end consumer. Our commitment also addresses the demands of increasingly discerning consumers who are concerned about the origin and journey of the products they consume,” said Aurélien Grisval, Head of Downstream Market for Juice, LDC.
The Montebelo Brasil line includes eight fresh fruit juices:
- Two pure orange juices (with and without pulp);
- Two lemonades (yellow lemon, and a blend of yellow and green lemon); and
- The following product range developed in collaboration with renowned Brazilian chef Tabata Mey: Pure mango, pineapple and lime juice; Coconut water, mango, pineapple, lime pure juice; Orange, maracuja, lime nectar ; and a lime maté beverage.
“We are proud to launch this new brand, which embodies our expertise as a global agricultural merchant dedicated to serving our customers, and our commitments as a responsible citrus grower in Brazil for over 35 years,” said Georges-Edouard Duriez, Head of Development and Strategy for Juice, LDC.
France was a natural choice for the brand launch, with its dynamic retail juice market that, per capita consumption, ranks second globally, with approximately 1.1 billion liters consumed annually, and for the opportunities offered by the chilled juice category in terms of value.
“Beyond the clear commercial opportunities, this launch in France, birthplace of the Group and homeland of its founder, Léopold Louis-Dreyfus, has profound significance for LDC. Making this launch a success will be a wonderful way to honor this legacy,” concluded Georges-Edouard Duriez.
Montebelo Brasil fruit juices are already available throughout France at Monoprix stores and Carrefour hyper and supermarkets in 1-liter and 250-milliliter bottles, and will soon be available at over 2,000 other outlets.
After the return of rains in São Paulo, orange producers surveyed by Cepea said that flowers have been blossoming since early February in some areas, and they may refer to out-of-season fruits.
In general, players say that the volume of fruits originated from these flowers may not be high, which can be insufficient to compensate the fruitlet abortion verified in the last quarter of 2023. These new flowers bring a positive expectation, since the remuneration of oranges in the next season is expected to be good.
The orange supply was very limited in the in natura market in São Paulo in mid-February, since it is considered the offseason period. Therefore, the market has been supplied mainly by out-of-the-season pear oranges and remaining volumes of late fruits. However, some producers were already harvesting early varieties (especially hamlin and westin), in order to increase the supply.
Fundecitrus has released the third update on the 2023/24 orange crop in the citrus belt in São Paulo and Triângulo/Sudoeste Mineiro, keeping the projection of 307.22 million 40.8-kilo boxes, stable compared to the previous report, but downing 0.7 % in relation to the initial forecast and 2.2 % against the 2022/23 season.
Mupy, a reference brand for soy drinks with fruit juice, and SIG, a leading solutions provider of packaging for better, recently signed a partnership for SIG to provide carton packs and filling services to Mupy via a copacker.
Mupy is projecting growth for the coming years and packaging solutions from SIG will play an integral part in achieving their target of doubling turnover by 2025. Mupy, under the new management of Alexandre Moreno, had revenues of 115 million reais and produced 11.7 million liters of soy drinks with fruit juice in 2023.
In order to achieve future growth with soy and juice beverages, Mupy relies on the high speed and flexible filling machines from SIG. The efficiency rate in the production process is very high, with a waste rate of just 0.5 %. In addition, SIG’s filling machines provide maximum flexibility and make it possible to fill products of different categories and viscosities in different volume sizes on one and the same filling machine.
Mupy offers its soy and juice drinks in the flavours grape, pineapple, apple, passion fruit, strawberry, orange, and peach in two SIG carton formats: SIG MiniBloc 200 ml and SIG MidiBloc 1,000 ml.
The combination of juice and soy milk allows Mupy to diversify its product offerings within the juice or plant-based drinks category, catering to a health-conscious market while at the same time tapping into the growing demand for plant-based alternatives, thereby enhancing market competitiveness and meeting the evolving preferences of consumers.
The South American market for plant-based products has been growing in recent years, according to The Good Food Institute Brazil (GFI). The plant-based drinks market grew by 15 % in 2022 and is expected to have an average annual expansion of almost 12 % by 2027. According to data from Bloomberg Intelligence, Brazil is the largest consumer of plant-based foods in Latin America, followed by Mexico, Chile and Argentina.
Today’s consumers are seeking more balanced and nutritious beverage options. The beverage blend of soy and juice offers a unique fusion of fruity flavours from the juice, the creamy texture of soy milk and notable health benefits of soy. Soy is a rich source of plant-based protein, making the beverage an excellent option for individuals looking to increase protein intake. Additionally, soy contains essential amino acids, fiber, and various vitamins and minerals, contributing for instance to immune health. The combination of the nutritional advantages of soy reinforces the appeal of the juice for both health-conscious consumers and producers aiming to offer a wholesome beverage option.
Renata Kasahara, Head of Marketing America South at SIG: “With our agile and flexible filling system, customers are well positioned to respond efficiently to any trend that is shaping the market.”
Consumer demand for plant-based products has been driven by the search for a healthier diet and products that are more sustainable. “Carton packaging is among the most sustainable packaging options. 75 % of its composition is paperboard from renewable sources and at SIG, 100 % of the paperboard we source is FSCTM-certified. All of the aluminum we purchase for SIG aseptic carton packs is certified against the Aluminium Stewardship Initiative Standards and we produce all our cartons with 100 % renewable electricity. In other words, opting for SIG means responsibly sourced and sustainably produced packaging to meet the demands of Mupy’s consumers”, Renata adds.
With success in 2023, Mupy’s ambitions for the coming years are high. Alexandre Moreno, the company’s CEO, is optimistic about 2024: “In 2023 we grew by more than 22 % compared to 2022 and our plan is to double our turnover by 2025. For this, the partnership between Mupy and SIG is fundamental.”
Total forecast production of oranges1 updated to 307.22 million boxes
The second forecast for the 2023-2024 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP, and FCAV/Unesp2, is 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. Of this total estimated production, approximately 27.60 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region.
In this update, the initial projection is reduced by 2.12 million boxes, corresponding to 0.7 %. This adjustment reflects the balance considering all varieties. The oranges from early varieties, already harvested almost entirely, benefited from abundant rains at the beginning of the year, resulting in a production exceeding the estimated 2.27 million boxes …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
The new heat wave in São Paulo state has been concerning citrus growers. Temperatures are higher than those registered in the last wave, in September, and lasting longer. Thus, many producers say that the weather may affect the 2024/25 production, but it is still early to estimate possible impacts.
Up until mid-November, high temperatures have been affecting areas with fruitlets. It is worth noting that, in the heat wave observed in September, areas with fruitlets (which had registered flowers in August) were the most affected, since weather conditions have caused fruitlets to fall.
Areas with late flowers (verified in less than 30 days) may also be damaged by the hot weather – these flowers blossomed earlier and the development stage is more advanced. Moreover, citrus growers indicate possible impacts on bigger fruits, especially in trees with high incidence of greening, with less leaves and/or in bad nutrition.
In irrigated areas, in turn, damages tend to be mitigated, since flowers are in a more advanced stage. However, these areas are located in the north of São Paulo state, where temperatures are usually higher.
As for 2023/24 oranges, players surveyed by Cepea report impacts on the quality. Many fruits are withered and sunburned, and consumers usually do not want to buy fruits with these conditions – in many cases, it is necessary to accelerate the harvest in order to avoid the premature fruit fall.
TAHITI LIME – The heat wave has also been affecting the tahiti lime. As rains have not been frequent in major producing regions, the supply has not increased in a significant way, and most fruits are small.
Despite the smaller size, producers have been harvesting fruits in order to take advantage of high prices and to avoid that the hot weather affects the quality even more.
Orange production is expected to be low in Florida for one more year. According to estimates from the USDA released on October 12th, the harvest of the 2023/24 crop in FL is forecast to total 20.5 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each, of which 7.5 million of early and mid-season varieties and 13 million, valência oranges.
Although that volume is considered low, it is still 30 % higher than that from last season, when two hurricanes hit Florida – Ian, in September 2022, and Nicole, in November 2022. Although hurricane Idalia hit Florida State in late August/23, damages were not that severe.
It is important to mention that this output is not enough to meet the demand from the US, thus, the country is expected to continue to import high amounts of orange juice – and Brazil is the major supplier of the commodity to them. This scenario becomes worse when the local inventories are considered, since they are decreasing year after year.
Brazilian market
Liquidity was high in the Brazilian orange market in the first fortnight of October, despite the holiday on the 12th (Day of Our Lady of Aparecida). According to Cepea collaborators, lower supply and higher demand underpinned prices. On the other hand, for tahiti lime, values dropped, influenced by lower demand and rising supply.
