1 – 2026-2027 orange crop forecast

The 2026-2027 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on May 08, 2026, by Fundecitrus in cooperation with full professor (retired) at FCAV/Unesp1, is 255.2 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90 lbs) each. This production is divided as follows (figures in parentheses indicate the variation in production as compared to the previous crop):

• 47.38 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties (+2.4 %);
• 19.25 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada varieties (+9.1 %);
• 83.20 million boxes of the Pera variety (-4.8 %);
• 80.71 million boxes of the Valencia and Folha Murcha varieties (-22.8 %);
• 24.66 million boxes of the Natal variety (-33.5 %).

Approximately 26.77 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro (+4.2 %).

Overall, the projected volume represents a decrease of 12.9% compared to the previous crop season, whose final number was 292.94 million boxes, maintaining production within a small range of the last ten years, as shown in Graph 1. Compared to the average volume produced in the last decade, the current crop shows a decrease of 14.6%.

The outlook for a smaller crop compared to the previous crop season is due to the lower number of fruits per tree and to the increase in the premature fruit drop rate, which outweigh the positive effect of the higher fruit weight and the larger number of bearing trees …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹José Carlos Barbosa, full professor (retired) at FCAV/Unesp.

Total orange production¹ for the 2025-2026 crop season ended at 292.94 million boxes

The 2025-2026 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with full professor (retired) from FCAV/Unesp², concluded with 292.94 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows:

• 46.23 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
• 17.65 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada early-season varieties;
• 87.44 million boxes of the Pera mid-season variety;
• 104.53 million boxes of the Valencia and Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
• 37.09 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.

Of the total, about 25.69 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.

Production this season was 26.9 % higher compared to the previous crop, which reached 230.87 million boxes, and 6.9 % lower than the initial forecast released in May 2025. Climatic and phytosanitary factors, within the context of a more delayed harvest, contributed to higher fruit drop rates and to reduced fruit weight compared to the initial forecast. The 2025-2026 crop was marked by a later harvest pace compared to previous crop seasons due to the high proportion of second-bloom fruit and to harvesting at optimal maturity. In this context, most of the Pera variety was expected to be harvested after the onset of heavier spring rains; however, nearly half of its production was harvested under dry conditions, as rainfall only intensified midway through October. Moreover, below-average rainfall throughout the period also adversely impacted the weight of the late varieties Valencia, Folha Murcha, and Natal, which were harvested through mid-January and did not reach the expected weight of the initial forecast. Furthermore, the premature fruit drop rate in this crop reached the highest level observed over the past 11 crop seasons, driven by increased greening severity, higher incidence of citrus leprosis, water deficit, and the occurrence of strong wind gusts throughout the production cycle …

Please download the complete forecast here.

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
²Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

The 2025/26 orange season is nearing its end in the citrus belt in São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro. Players surveyed by Cepea report that the harvested volumes have already declined. As the season winds down, major processors still receiving fruits are concentrating operations in only a few processing units.

The most recent report by Fundecitrus, released in late January, indicated that only 13 % of the total volume estimated for the 2025/26 season was left to be harvested. It is likely that less than 5 % of the crop remains unharvested in late February.

The return of processing activities involving 2026/27 oranges is expected to take place between April and May.

As for prices, data from Cepea indicate that quotations of pear oranges delivered at the industry have averaged BRL 34.53 per 40.8-kilo box in February (up to Feb. 26), downing 7.69 % in relation to that in January.

Concerning in natura market, the supply of high-quality fruits has been decreasing. The demand, in turn, is still firm. In the partial of February, values of pear oranges have averaged BRL 41.40 per 40.8-kg box, on tree, for a decrease of 2.87 % against the first month of 2026.

As the 2025/26 season is close to the end, the sector is now focusing on weather conditions and its consequent impacts on the development of the 2026/27 crop.

Total orange production¹ is updated at 294.81 million boxes

The second update of the 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on December 10, 2025, by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with professor (retired) from FCAV/Unesp2, is 294.81 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90-pound box). In comparison to the May forecast, the crop season is expected to yield 19.79 million fewer boxes, a decline of 6.3 %. Compared to the last forecast released in September, which projected 306.74 million boxes, the new estimate indicates a 3.9 % reduction, corresponding to a decrease of 11.9 million boxes. This downward trend is due to the estimated smaller average size of oranges and a higher rate of premature fruit drop. It is also estimated that approximately 25.83 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region.

When the last updated forecast was disclosed in September, the harvest pace indicated that a significant portion of the Pera variety crop would be harvested after the more intense rains expected during spring. However, rainfall in September …

Please download the complete forecast here.

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera, Valencia, Folha Murcha and Natal.
²Department of Exact Sciences, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

2025-2026 orange crop forecast

The 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on May 09, 2025, by Fundecitrus in cooperation with full professor at FCAV/Unesp¹, is 314.60 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90 lbs) each. This production is divided as follows (figures in parentheses indicate the variation in production as compared to the previous crop):

• 49.48 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties (+ 31.49 %);
• 19.86 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada varieties (+ 27.31 %);
• 90.51 million boxes of the Pera variety (+ 21.16 %);
• 114.58 million boxes of the Valencia and Folha Murcha varieties (+ 50.78 %);
• 40.17 million boxes of the Natal variety (+ 49.05 %).

Approximately 26.93 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro (+ 80.3 %).

Overall, the projected volume represents a significant increase of 36.27 % compared to the previous crop season, whose final number was 230.87 million boxes, bringing production back into the average range of the last ten years, …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹José Carlos Barbosa, (voluntary) Full Professor at FCAV/Unesp.

Total orange production¹ for the 2024-2025 crop season ended at 230.87 million boxes

The 2024-2025 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with full professor from FCAV/Unesp², concluded with 230.87 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows:

• 7.63 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin e Rubi early-season varieties;
• 15.60 million boxes of Valência Americana, Seleta, Pineapple e Alvorada early-season varieties;
• 74.70 million boxes of Pera Rio mid-season variety;
• 75.99 million boxes of Valência e Valência Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
• 26.95 million boxes of Natal late-season variety.

Of the total, about 14.94 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.

This season production was 0.65% below the initial estimate released in May 2024 (232.38 million boxes) and 24.85% below the previous crop season, which totaled 307.22 million boxes, a production level in line with the historical average. The 2024-2025 crop was confirmed as the second smallest in the last 37 years, considered atypical due to adverse weather conditions, marked by dry weather, high temperatures, the extremely late and expressive fourth bloom, along with the incidence of greening …

Please download the complete forecast here.

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
²Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

Regular rains and mild weather were registered in late October in the citrus belt of São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro, the biggest orange producer for the juice industry. This scenario has helped to bring a relief for trees that were affected by the lack of rains and high temperatures.

2024/25 season

Even with the return of rainfall, the current orange crop has presented low quality. Still, rains in October may improve the quality of fruits that are still on the trees. It is worth noting that the orange crop has started in June this year and may finish between December and January/25. As for tahiti lime (the main season starts between November and December), weather conditions may favor the development, since fruits are currently below the standard.

Exports

The revenue obtained by Brazilian exporters with orange juice shipments in the partial of the 2024/25 crop (from July/24 to September/24) totaled USD 905.3 million, for an increase of 42.3 % compared to the same period of the last season (USD 636.1 million), according to Comex Stat.

The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil, in turn, continues decreasing, as it has been verified since the 2023/24 crop. From July to September/24, Brazil shipped 207.5 thousand tons of orange juice, downing 27 % in relation to the same period in 2023.

The lower volume exported is linked to the limited supply. Weather adversities have been hampering the production for five consecutive seasons, which resulted in restricted inventories of juice.

Total forecast production of oranges¹ remains at 307.22 million boxes

The third forecast for the 2023/24 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on February 09, 2024 by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp², maintains the projection of 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, unchanged in total volume from the previous forecast. This represents a reduction of 0.7 % when compared to the initial forecast for the season. Of the total estimated production, approximately 27.76 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
²Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

Total forecast production of oranges¹ updated to 307.22 million boxes

The second forecast for the 2023-2024 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP, and FCAV/Unesp², is 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. Of this total estimated production, approximately 27.60 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region.

In this update, the initial projection is reduced by 2.12 million boxes, corresponding to 0.7 %. This adjustment reflects the balance considering all varieties. The oranges from early varieties, already harvested almost entirely, benefited from abundant rains at the beginning of the year, resulting in a production exceeding the estimated 2.27 million boxes …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
²Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

2023 -2024 orange crop forecast

The 2023 – 2024 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus beltby Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors at FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp, is 309.34 million boxes (40.8 kg). Total orange production includes:

• 56.11 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties;
• 18.22 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada;
• 98.95 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety;
• 105.23 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties;
• 30.83 million boxes of the Natal variety.

Approximately 27.02 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.

The projected volume is lower only by 1.55 percent as compared to the previous crop, which totaled 314.21 million boxes. That minor difference maintains the production at the same level as in the previous crop season and within the average range for the last ten years, as shown in Graph 1. As compared to the average volume produced in the last decade, the current crop shows a slight increase of 1.04 percent …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

Orange production for the 2021-2022 crop season totaled 262.97 million boxes¹

The 2021-2022 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 11, 2022, by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp² is 262.97 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. Approximately 23.35 million boxes were produced in West Minas Gerais.

This final figure was 10.61 % smaller than the initially expected volume published in May 2021, corresponding to a significant crop loss of 31.20 million boxes. Although this was an “on-year” for the alternate-bearing, when plants produced a larger amount of fruit, a sharp decrease in rainfall and more intense atypical frosts inhibited the growth of oranges and contributed to an increased early fruit drop, therefore reducing the number of oranges at harvest. Under those conditions, there was a yield loss in groves, which made the crop decrease 2.11 % as compared to the previous one, resulting in a small crop for the second consecutive year. Total orange production included:

• 47.16 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
• 14.85 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple early-season varieties;
• 74.78 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
• 96.59 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
• 29.59 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.

The May 2021 forecast considered that the yield of groves would be affected due to the lower rainfall volume that was already forecast for 2021. However, forecasts did not point to climate conditions as extreme as those observed, which brought greater than expected damage. The prolonged dry spell turned out to be the worst drought in almost a century, with water shortage in practically all regions of the citrus belt. That critical situation severely impacted rainfed groves, which encompass approximately 70 % of the total area and inevitably rely on rainfall. But even irrigated groves were affected by drought. In many locations, rivers and reservoirs reached the most critical levels ever recorded, restricting water use for irrigation. This crop’s most critical period was from May to September 2021, when accumulated rainfall was almost 70 % below historical average. The scenario started to improve in late September and early October when spring came …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
²Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

Orange production for the 2020-2021 crop season totaled 268.63 million boxes¹

The final 2020-2021 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 12, 2021 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp² – was 268.63 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lb), which represents a decrease of 6.65 % in relation to the first crop forecast published in May 2020, accounting for a reduction of 19.13 million boxes. This crop had a decrease of 118.16 million boxes in comparison to the previous season, which is equivalent to a volume 30.55 % smaller than that of the 2019-2020 cycle, confirming a record crop loss for all the years in which the crop suffered the physiological effects of the negative biennial production cycle of orange trees since the beginning of the historical series in 1988. Total orange production included:

• 47.00 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
• 13.85 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple early-season varieties;
• 81.45 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
• 91.95 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
• 34.38 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.
• Approximately 19.33 million boxes were produced in West Minas Gerais.

One of the reasons that explains this substantial crop loss is the fact that orange trees started flowering in the spring of 2019, when reserves were lower because they had been used in the previous crop season when there was a significant yield increase. Decreased reserves led to a significant reduction in the number of fruits per tree in this season, a phenomenon known as alternate bearing. The other reason is the strong negative influence of the climate throughout the season. …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
²Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.