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All oranges 18.8 million boxes

The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is lowered 1.00 million boxes to 18.8 million boxes. If realised, this will be 19 percent more than last season’s revised production. The forecast consists of 6.80 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 12.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov

Orange production for the 2021-2022 crop season totaled 262.97 million boxes1

The 2021-2022 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 11, 2022, by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 is 262.97 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. Approximately 23.35 million boxes were produced in West Minas Gerais.

This final figure was 10.61 % smaller than the initially expected volume published in May 2021, corresponding to a significant crop loss of 31.20 million boxes. Although this was an “on-year” for the alternate-bearing, when plants produced a larger amount of fruit, a sharp decrease in rainfall and more intense atypical frosts inhibited the growth of oranges and contributed to an increased early fruit drop, therefore reducing the number of oranges at harvest. Under those conditions, there was a yield loss in groves, which made the crop decrease 2.11 % as compared to the previous one, resulting in a small crop for the second consecutive year. Total orange production included:

  • 47.16 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
  • 14.85 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple early-season varieties;
  • 74.78 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
  • 96.59 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
  • 29.59 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.

The May 2021 forecast considered that the yield of groves would be affected due to the lower rainfall volume that was already forecast for 2021. However, forecasts did not point to climate conditions as extreme as those observed, which brought greater than expected damage. The prolonged dry spell turned out to be the worst drought in almost a century, with water shortage in practically all regions of the citrus belt. That critical situation severely impacted rainfed groves, which encompass approximately 70 % of the total area and inevitably rely on rainfall. But even irrigated groves were affected by drought. In many locations, rivers and reservoirs reached the most critical levels ever recorded, restricting water use for irrigation. This crop’s most critical period was from May to September 2021, when accumulated rainfall was almost 70 % below historical average. The scenario started to improve in late September and early October when spring came

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

All Oranges 51.7 Million Boxes

The 2020-2021 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is down 3.80 million boxes to 51.7 million boxes. If realized, this will be 23 percent less than last season’s revised final production. The forecast consists of 22.7 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 29.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom.

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov

Orange production for the 2019-2020 crop season totals 386.79 million boxes1

The final 2019-2020 orange crop forecast for São Paulo, Triângulo Mineiro and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 09, 2020 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is 386.79 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, which represents a decrease of 0.54 % in relation to the first crop forecast carried out in May 2019 of 388.89 million boxes. This crop is 35.3 % larger in comparison to the previous season (2018-2019), when 285.98 million boxes were produced, evidencing the biennial production cycle of orange trees, that is, larger crops alternated with smaller ones.

1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Departament of Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp Campus Jaboticabal.

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf