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Total forecast production of oranges1 updated to 307.22 million boxes

The second forecast for the 2023-2024 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP, and FCAV/Unesp2, is 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. Of this total estimated production, approximately 27.60 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region.

In this update, the initial projection is reduced by 2.12 million boxes, corresponding to 0.7 %. This adjustment reflects the balance considering all varieties. The oranges from early varieties, already harvested almost entirely, benefited from abundant rains at the beginning of the year, resulting in a production exceeding the estimated 2.27 million boxes

Please download the complete forecast under:

1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

All Oranges 20.5 Million Boxes

The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 20.5 million boxes, up 30 percent from last season’s final production. The total includes 7.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The Navel orange forecast, at 300,000 boxes, accounts for 4 percent of the non-Valencia total.

The estimated number of bearing trees for all oranges is 38.7 million. Trees planted in 2020 and earlier are considered bearing for this season. Field work for the latest Commercial Citrus Inventory was completed in June 2023. Attrition rates were applied to the results to determine the number of bearing trees used to weigh and expand objective count data in the forecast model.

An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: